Tuesday, January 12, 2010

FOREIGN FILM SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS

Well, the 9-film Oscar shortlist is scheduled to come out sometime next week....

Remember, first, six films are chosen by the larger Oscar Foreign committee. This older, more conservative body typically chooses safe films, and the six are those with the highest overall scores....Look for family dramas, war dramas and films that don't piss off anyone (lest they risk low scores throwing off their averages).

After that, three more films are chosen by the small, elite committee. Nobody knows exactly how they make their decisions, but look for them to choose big-name films that are more arty, intellectual and awards-laden. The smaller committee is supposed to insure that no cinematic great works are snubbed by the Oscar seniors....

I'm moved up some films with good buzz (Japan, Netherlands, Poland) and moved down some films I previously thought would be major threats (Czech Republic, Russia)

Here are my final predictions for the 2010 Foreign Oscar shortlist. I'm not happy with the list...Way too many dry European historical dramas for my taste....But that's what Oscar likes.

2010 Oscar Shortlist
1. ARGENTINA- "The Secret of Her Eyes" (First Six)
2. FRANCE - "Un Prophete" (First Six)
3. THE NETHERLANDS- "Winter in Wartime" (First Six)
4. ISRAEL- "Ajami" (Elite Committee)
5. GERMANY- "White Ribbon" (Elite Committee)
6. NORWAY- "Max Manus" (First Six)
7. IRAN- "About Elly" (Elite Committee)
8. ITALY- "Baaria" (First Six)
9. SLOVAKIA- "Broken Promise" (First Six)

VERY STRONG CONTENDERS
10. AUSTRIA- "For A Moment, Freedom"
11. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Protektor"
12. JAPAN- "Nobody to Watch Over Me"
13. SOUTH KOREA- "Mother"
14. MEXICO- "El Traspatio" (Big Committee ONLY)
15. POLAND- "Reverse"
16. ROMANIA- "Police, Adjective" (Elite Committee ONLY)
17. CHILE- "Dawson, Isla 10"
18. CANADA- "How I Killed My Mother"

UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
19. BULGARIA- "The World is Big & Salvation Lurks Around the Corner" (Big Committee)
20. AUSTRALIA- "Samson & Delilah" (Small Committee)
21. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy"
22. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire" (Big)
23. SPAIN- "The Dancer & the Thief" (Big)
24. CHINA- "Forever Enthralled"
25. GEORGIA- "The Other Bank"
26. SWITZERLAND- "Home" (Small)
27. PERU- "Milk of Sorrow" (Small)

I haven't forgotten FINLAND (which is predicted on thefilmexperience.net, my favorite Oscar site), or perennial powers RUSSIA or SWEDEN.....I don't think they're contenders....

LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION:
65. PHILIPPINES- "Grandfather is Dead"
64. ARMENIA- "Autumn of the Magician"
63. VENEZUELA- "Libertador Morales"
62. PUERTO RICO- "Kabo & Platon"
61. BANGLADESH- "Beyond the Circle"

Overly arty films that not everyone loves (Australia, Peru and Romania) can only hope that the elite committee falls for their obscure charms and gives them the "Three Monkeys" slot.

COUNTRY MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE LIST FOR THE FIRST TIME: THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC, which hasn't been nominated since earning its independence in 1993.....South Korea, Romania and Chile are also in the running.....

We'll find out next week and see how many I get right!

5 comments:

gavin said...

What are you basing your predictions on?

Where did you hear this "buzz?"

How many of these films have you seen and how did you see them?

I saw BROKEN PROMISE, AJAMI and LIFE DURING WARTIME at the Palm Springs Film Festival, and I absolutely agree they are great films with really good chances of getting nominated.

dzong2 said...

I've seen 11 of the 65 nominees, namely Bolivia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey (film festivals), Japan, Norway, the Philippines and Slovenia (on DVD) and Armenia, Cuba and Morocco (Online, via "Joining the Docs" and Youtube). I just got the DVD if the Kazakhstan nominee as a gift, so I'll watch that one next.

Predictions are based on all the infomation from my four previous posts....

Yes, I'm feeling more and more confident about the nine, although I do wish WWII dramas would take a break.....I'm feeling especially confidents about the Netherlands' "Wartime"

FriendsOfFilm said...

Bob Sharka’s Top Ten Foreign Films

Austria; FOR A MOMENT FREEDOM

Chile; DAWSON, ISLA 10

Denmark, TERRIBLY HAPPY

Finland; LETTERS TO FATHER JACOB

France; THE PROPHET

Germany; THE WHITE RIBBON

Hungary; CHAMLEON

Japan; NOBODY TO WATCH OVER ME

The Netherlands; WINTER IN WARTIME

South Africa; WHITE WEDDING



SWEET SIXTEEN

Argentina; THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

Belgium; THE MISFORTUNATES

Bulgaria; THE WORLD IS BIG AND SALVATION LURKS AROUND THE CORNER

Poland; REVERSE

Switzerland; HOME

Taiwan; NO PUEDO VIVIR SIN TI




TOP TWENTY

Australia; SAMSON AND DELILAH

Israel; AJAMI

Slovakia; BROKEN PROMISE

Turkey; I SAW THE SUN

bill sherman said...

I thought SIN NOMBRE was the best foreign film of the ones I have seen, although BROKEN EMBRACES was the most intelligent cinematically. It's all just big bucks showbiz sham, really. (www.omoopart5.blogspot.com)

kal said...

I consider myself a dedicated lover of foreign movies and my objective here is to present my list of top 100 foreign films that I think every living human should make some attempt to watch at least once in life. Watch these best foreign films!

http://www.squidoo.com/Top100ForeignFilms

The very best foreign language films - hallmarks of cinematic art!

Writing a lens on top 100 foreign films is a very personal experience for me because I just don't watch foreign movies, I spend hours thinking about every detail of a scene that moved me. And I honestly think that many of our greatest films, the very best movies in cinematic history - actually are these foreign language films that have originated outside Hollywood. Thoughts and debates welcome, but I learned to appreciate that language in our regular sense is a pretty imperfect medium of communication. These top foreign films have taught me to transcend the flimsy barriers of these "localized" mediums that I was so very much "used to". Wherever there are humans, there are stories...and music...and emotions...and talent to create wonders on celluloid! And us, the fortunate beholders! So here goes my list of top 100 foreign films...enjoy!

~ Cheers!
http://www.youtube.com/user/BestForeignMovies