Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Final Predictions

I just heard that the 9-film shortlist will be announced today, January 18th, so I wanted to get these out right away....

Here are my final predictions for the Oscar shortlist, in order of likelihood...Yes, I know FRANCE is one of the favorites, but I'm predicting it just misses the mark....

Lots of boring-looking films in the Top Tier (another Bouchareb war drama), but I am hoping against hope that more original films like JAPAN's "Confessions" and PERU's "Contracorriente" can push aside some of the more traditional Oscar fare.

UPDATE, 1/19/2011: Moving "Tirza" out of the Top Nine and replacing it (fingers crossed!) for "Confessions"....Adding Sweden's "Simple Simon", whose buzz is growing (too late?)

MY PREDICTIONS
1. CANADA- Incendies
2. DENMARK- In A Better World
3. ITALY- The First Beautiful Thing
4. MEXICO- Biutiful
5. SOUTH AFRICA- Life Above All
6. CHINA- Aftershock
7. ALGERIA- Hors-la-Loi
8. GERMANY- When We Leave
9. JAPAN- Confessions

VERY LIKELY ALTERNATES:
10. CZECH REPUBLIC- Kawasaki’s Rose
11. FRANCE- Of Gods and Men
12. NETHERLANDS- Tirza
13. PERU- Contracorriente

LONGSHOTS:
14. GEORGIA- Street Days
15. SWEDEN- Simple Simon
16. TURKEY- Honey
17. RUSSIA- The Edge
18. BOSNIA- Cirkus Columbia
19. THAILAND- Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
20. VENEZUELA- Hermano

SLIGHT CHANCE, BUT WOULD SHOCK:
21. SERBIA- Besa
22. SPAIN- Even the Rain
23. ROMANIA- If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle
24. ICELAND- Mamma Gogo
25. ISRAEL- The Human Resources Manager
26. AFGHANISTAN- Black Tulip
27. SWITZERLAND- La Petite Chambre
28. INDIA- Peepli [Live]

16 comments:

Spartak said...

My prediction is quite different,mainly because I have seen only 3 films from your top 9 prediction (Italy,China and Germany) and all of them are in my prediction too (while Italy narrowly miss my opinion top 9)...While France is my favourite for winning (both in opinion and prediction) as the biggest treat for them was Germany (and in "my opinion" is Greece).
I also think that Elite commitee can choose Greece so it can make it...Also,first Russia was quite far in my prediciton,but a nomination for Golden Globe make it chance quite good (for January's list)
And which of them (from your prediction) do you expect to get from Elite commitee?And what is your opinion?

dzong2 said...

GREECE?! Good Lord, no! I really don't see the violent, sexual "Dogtooth" having any chance here. It comes out on DVD here in the US next week, and I can't wait to see it, but it's not an Oscar film. But everyone is entitled to their opinion... :)

I think Mexico will definitely get one of the Elite Committee slots....I'm hoping Japan will get the second one and France or Peru will possibly get the third. Turkey, Georgia and even Thailand also have a small chance...But I think the third slot will probably go to one of my Top Predictions that the Large Committee ignores...

But who knows? Last year, they were quite adventurous! The smaller committee almost surely chose Australia (pure arthouse), Kazakhstan (an obscure work of art) and Peru (Berlinale Winner).

LaKost said...

Algeria, Canada, Den, Greece, Japan, Mex, S.Africa, Spain, Swe.

I'm pretty sure that Dogtooth will be in the final five.

dzong2 said...

The list is out!

Wow! I don't know if I am more surprised that (A)- Spartak was right about DOGTOOTH, or (B)- that ITALY's favored "First Beautiful Thing" was ignored!

I got six out of nine, and I'm so proud of Japan!

http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2011/20110119.html

Predictions for the Top Five:
1. CANADA
2. DENMARK
3. MEXICO
4. JAPAN
5. SOUTH AFRICA
6. ALGERIA
7. SWEDEN
8. SPAIN
9. GREECE

Evan said...

Why do you have Greece so low, given that this is a committee of 30, only one-third of which are from the general voting pool?

I wonder if Johnson is on a mission to get "Dogtooth" in!

Andrew R. said...

Wow, you were correct about France not making it! Impressive!

Greece made it! YAY!

dzong2 said...

Evan,

I'm ranking "DOGTOOTH" last out of the nine finalists because it is the most divisive film on the list.....I haven't heard anyone say a bad word about DENMARK or CANADA, so they are in automatically, and are the two favorites to win the Oscar.

ALGERIA, MEXICO and SOUTH AFRICA have also gotten mostly great reviews in the States (though Algeria less so, overseas), with some minor negativity....A minority say "Biutiful" is too bleak and depressing, "Life Above All" too cliched and sentimental, and Algeria too cold and jingoistic. But overall, they are well-liked by almost everyone.

JAPAN and SWEDEN are more obscure...Not many people have seen them (remember...to vote for the Final Five, you have to see all nine films) but "Simple Simon", while a real crowd-pleaser, could definitely be considered as too silly to be an Oscar nominee. On the other hand, everyone who sees "Confessions" seems to think it's brilliant.

That brings us to SPAIN and GREECE, which were almost certainly chosen by the Elite Ciommittee. Not EVERYONE loves these films, which means they will probably get a few low scores that will eliminate them in this very close race. "Even the Rain" is very cerebral...."Dogtooth" is very violent, sexual and surreal.

I could easily see any of the Top Seven, but I just don't see the other two as competitive here....

But as Spartak can confirm, I've been wrong about "Dogtooth" before!

Trivia: Every country on the list has been nominated at least once in the last six years....The one exception is GREECE which was last nominated way back in 1978 for "Iphigenia".

Keith Larsen said...

I was predicting:
1. In A Better World
2. Of Gods and Men
3. Life, Above All
4. Incendies
5. Sons of Babylon
6. Kawasaki's Rose
7. Biutiful
8. The Edge
9. Street Days

4 out of 9... not so good. Hard without being able to see them...

Guessing for final 5:
1. In A Better World
2. Life, Above All
3. Confessions
4. Dogtooth
5. Biutiful

A good movie is a good movie, if Dogtooth is getting such good reviews I would hope the committee has an open mind. We'll see.

The Film Lunatic said...

Did you guys ever see South Africa’s submission last year? I thought White Wedding was pretty deserving of a nomination and was disappointed when it didn’t make the final cut. I hope Life Above All will win. South Africa has beautiful scenery and heart-felt films. White Wedding is finally coming out on DVD. You can see the trailer at www.whiteweddingmovie.com

Ali said...

Even The Rain will definitely be in the top 5 and the list will be like this
confessions (deserves an oscar just for the trailer)
incendies (Canada the cinema magic beholder)
simple simon (sensitive topic with a caring touch)
in a better world (festen's reincarnation =p)
And i Will watch Dogtooth tonight
and the rest can follow samson and delilah's path

Spartak said...

"Dogtooth" was the only film I predicted corectlly.Mainly,because I base my prediction only on the films I have seen and I'm surprised,because I did expect that there will be 2-4 films in the list that I hadn't an opportunity to see,but not 8 of them (considering that I have seen 32 from 65 countries this year).
I guessed Greece,because this year there is a small amount of films that are well acclaimed and are completly out of Academy taste...About last year,I suppose that Ajami was en Elite choise.

The Film Lunatic,I have seen and don't think that it deserve a nomination (by the way as far as I know the dvd was out a long time ago),it's nice and quite romantic comedy,but not more then it.

Andrew R. said...

My predictions:

1. Mexico
2. Canada
3. Algeria
4. South Africa
5. Japan
6. Spain
7. Denmark (I'm predicting an upset)
8. Sweden
9. Greece

Spartak said...

I can hardly imagine that "In a Better World" will stay out,all the more after it won Golden Globe...In last 20 years only twice (in 2004* Osama and in 1997 Ma vie en rose),once the winner wasn't choosen by it country (in 2008 Persepolis was choosen instead of The Diving Bell and the Butterfly),once the country didn't send any film (in 1992 Germany didn't sent any film,though by imdb Europa Europa was eligble only for year after,when Schtonk! was choosen and nominated for Oscar...But in 1992,Europa Europa was nominated for Oscar for Best Screenplay) and also once an American film has won (in 2007 Letters from Iwo Jima)...
So I suppose that we'll see "In a Better Wold" nominated.
*The years,which mentioned are the year,when the award was given.

dzong2 said...

I did see "White Wedding" and I enjoyed it very much, although I didn't think it deserved to be nominated for an Oscar.

Still..."White Wedding" is one of the reasons I try to see all the movies on the list each year. It was such a fun movie, and I never would have heard of it without South Africa choosing it for the Oscars.

I think "In A Better World" is one of the two films that are completely safe.....It's in.

Spartak said...

And which is the second one "Incendies" or "Biutful"?

mollusquemorn said...

My vote is for Incendies or Biutiful, but I never know what the decision is based on. Last year, I was hoping White Wedding would at least get a nomination for its lightheartedness in dealing with some politically- and socially-complicated issues in South Africa today. It just got released on DVD/VoD a week ago, so it's been added to my collection of good films nobody gets my interpretation of. http://whiteweddingmovie.com/