Well, the Oscar shortlist is scheduled to come out today....I've managed to see 47 of the 87 nominees which I think it s a record for me pre-shortlist. Unfortunately, I haven't seen three of the key front-runners ("Roma", "Shoplifters" and "Capernaum") though I hope to see them all this week.
PREDICTED SHORTLIST:
1. MEXICO- "Roma"
2. JAPAN- "Shoplifters"
3. DENMARK- "The Guilty"
4. LEBANON- "Capernaum"
5. SLOVAKIA- "The Interpreter"
6. POLAND- "Cold War" (Elite Save)
7. SWEDEN- "Border" (Elite Save)
8. URUGUAY- "A Twelve-Year Night"
9. TUNISIA- "Beauty and the Dogs" (Elite Save)
STRONG CONTENDERS
10. TURKEY- "Wild Pear Tree"
11. COLOMBIA- "Birds of Passage"
12. GERMANY- "Never Look Away"
13. KOREA- "Burning"
13. AUSTRALIA- "Jirga"
15. NORWAY- "What Will People Say?"
16. UKRAINE- "Donbass"
17. BELGIUM- "Girl"
18. KENYA- "Supa Modo"
DARK HORSES
19. FRANCE- "La douleur" (Memoirs of War)
20. ICELAND- "Woman at War"
21. UK- "I Am Not A Witch"
22. EGYPT- "Yomeddine"
23. ISRAEL- "The Cakemaker"
24. ITALY- "Dogman"
25. PARAGUAY- "The Heiresses"
26. NIGER- "The Wedding Ring"
REAL LONG SHOTS
27. NETHERLANDS- "The Resistance Banker"
28. IRAN- "No Date, No Signature"
29. HUNGARY- "Sunset"
30. ESTONIA- "Take It Or Leave It"
31. RUSSIA- "Sobibor"
32. ARGENTINA- "El angel"
33. KAZAKHSTAN- "Ayka"
34. BOSNIA- "Never Leave Me"
35. INDONESIA- "Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts"
36. AFGHANISTAN- "Rona, Azim's Mother"
PREDICTED SHORTLIST:
1. MEXICO- "Roma"
2. JAPAN- "Shoplifters"
3. DENMARK- "The Guilty"
4. LEBANON- "Capernaum"
5. SLOVAKIA- "The Interpreter"
6. POLAND- "Cold War" (Elite Save)
7. SWEDEN- "Border" (Elite Save)
8. URUGUAY- "A Twelve-Year Night"
9. TUNISIA- "Beauty and the Dogs" (Elite Save)
STRONG CONTENDERS
10. TURKEY- "Wild Pear Tree"
11. COLOMBIA- "Birds of Passage"
12. GERMANY- "Never Look Away"
13. KOREA- "Burning"
13. AUSTRALIA- "Jirga"
15. NORWAY- "What Will People Say?"
16. UKRAINE- "Donbass"
17. BELGIUM- "Girl"
18. KENYA- "Supa Modo"
DARK HORSES
19. FRANCE- "La douleur" (Memoirs of War)
20. ICELAND- "Woman at War"
21. UK- "I Am Not A Witch"
22. EGYPT- "Yomeddine"
23. ISRAEL- "The Cakemaker"
24. ITALY- "Dogman"
25. PARAGUAY- "The Heiresses"
26. NIGER- "The Wedding Ring"
REAL LONG SHOTS
27. NETHERLANDS- "The Resistance Banker"
28. IRAN- "No Date, No Signature"
29. HUNGARY- "Sunset"
30. ESTONIA- "Take It Or Leave It"
31. RUSSIA- "Sobibor"
32. ARGENTINA- "El angel"
33. KAZAKHSTAN- "Ayka"
34. BOSNIA- "Never Leave Me"
35. INDONESIA- "Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts"
36. AFGHANISTAN- "Rona, Azim's Mother"
3 comments:
I'm going with predicting:
Girl, Belgium
The Guilty, Denmark
Never Look Away, Germany
Shoplifters, Japan
Capernaum, Lebanon
Roma, Mexico
Cold War, Poland
Burning, South Korea
Border, Sweden
I suspect the rule changes will make it harder for films without any buzz (e.g., Tunisia, Slovakia) to get into the list.
Thanks Evan!
I don't think buzz will affect too much at this stage....The Top Six are still the films that have the highest overall average score. And the elite committee has shown in the past that they are NOT interested in selecting the most high-profile films that get snubbed by the large committee (i.e. 120BPM and The Past)
I really don't think "Girl" or "Burning" are good enough films to make it when they have so much competition. "Girl" is a well-made indie by a debut director. "Burning" is a good 90-minute film stretched out to over two hours. I suppose "Burning" is artsy enough to be selected by the elite committee, but which committee would choose "Girl"? A transgender film won last year and I can't see it being saved.
I haven't seen "Never Look Away", but it's the one middling film I fear will make the list.
Thanks for your comments!
No problem! Thanks for your thorough reviews, year in and out.
Never Look Away is total Foreign Language Oscar bait, but I must say it’s well-made and I enjoyed it. It is long long long but it went by in a surprising flash. They’ve had worse selections in the shortlist for sure.
Burning is one of my two favorites of the year. It’s slow so I can understand why you feel it should be edited, but on a recent rewatch I felt like it was all there for a reason. I predicted it because it’s gotten so many awards that, after Roma or Shoplifters, it seemed like the film that most had to be on the list for it to be taken seriously. Also, they’d been working the circuit with Yeun doing all kinds of Q&As.
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