2019-2020 Foreign Oscar Predictions (Costa Rica to Iceland)

And here's the next batch of 25 countries:

 COSTA RICA- “Land of Ashes”  Costa Rica’s Ana Quiros made her feature debut at Cannes Critics Week with “Land of Ashes” (Ceniza negra) so that’s likely to be their pick if it gets released in Costa Rica before September 30. It’s a visually arresting film about a 13-year old girl growing up with her dying grandfather in rural Costa Rica. If “Ashes” is released after September 30, Costa Rica has at least three other contenders. First among them is feminist family drama “The Awakening of the Ants” which won Best Costa Rican Feature at the 2019 Costa Rica International Film Festival. It’s about a mother who rebels against her traditional family’s demand that she have another child to try for a boy. Unlikely but possible: “Two Fridas”, about the relationship of Frida Kahlo and her Costa Rican nurse, and black comedy “Helmet Heads”. 

 COTE D’IVOIRE- “Résolution” The Cote d’Ivoire (aka Ivory Coast) has entered the Oscar race twice, most recently in 2015. This year, they had one film in competition at FESPACO- “Résolution”. It won a small prize and is certainly the most likely candidate if they choose to send a film this year. The film explores how domestic violence affects a middle-class wife and mother seeking to keep up appearances in Ivorian society.

  CROATIA- “All Alone” Croatia has one of the weakest races in Europe. They only had five local features released in cinemas in 2018, and there are only eight films competing at the Pula International Film Festival (July 13-21st, 2019), which is where they get most of their Oscar submissions from. This year’s eight Pula films include (1)- a zombie comedy, (2)- a children’s film, (3)- an experimental docudrama, (4)- a biopic of a national war hero best-known abroad for war crimes indictments, and (5)- an ineligible thriller that was released last year. It's not a promising field. I predict Croatia will send “All Alone”, about a divorced dad desperately trying to fight the Croatian family courts to win more time with his young daughter.  Its main competition comes from “General”, a high-profile biopic directed by 88-year old Antun Vrdoljak and starring Goran Visnijc (“ER”) as Croatian war hero/war criminal Ante Gotovina who bravely fought for Croatia’s independence while also perpetrating war crimes against civilians in the bloody Yugoslavian civil wars. Gotovina was eventually (and controversially) acquitted. Will Croatia want his story to represent them? I’m not sure, but I’m predicting “All Alone” largely because “General” doesn’t have a release date yet. In third place: “Mali” (which I predicted last year), another child custody drama that did well at last year’s Pula Film Festival before getting a brief cinematic release in Spring 2019. Rounding out the Top Five choices for Croatia: political satire “What a Country!” and buddy dramedy “For Good Old Times”. The directors of “General”, “Mali” and “What a Country” have been selected before.  We'll have a better sense of things on July 21st when the winners of the Pula Film Festival are announced. "General", "All Alone" and "What A Country" are all competing there, whereas "Mali" and "Good Old Times" competed last year.

 CUBA- “Un traductor” It’s still unclear what happened to the Cuban submission last year. Although “Sergio and Sergei” was announced as the Cuban entry, it appears it was never officially submitted to AMPAS. Cuba has an unusually strong line-up this year and I count no less than five strong possibilities, so I hope they send a film. Two eligible films feature major international stars- “Un traductor” (Sundance) stars Brazilian actor Rodrigo Santoro as an Russian/Spanish interpreter for children brought to Cuba for medical treatment after the Chernobyl disaster; French actress Sylvie Testud stars in historical drama “Insumisa”, set in colonial Cuba in 1810. A second drama set in colonial Cuba- “Inocencia”- is also in the running. It won the Audience Award at the Habana International Film Festival and tells the emotionally resonant, true story of eight innocent Cuban students executed by Spanish authorities in 1871. Sci-fi comedy “The Extraordinary Journey of Celeste Garcia” has probably gotten the most festival play (I sadly missed it here in DC) while “Mantis Nest” is a murder mystery with one suspect- the young daughter of  the murdered couple. Directors Fernando Perez (“Insumisa”) and Arturo Sotto Diaz (“Mantis Nest”) have been chosen before. Ultimately, I think this will come down to “Un traductor” and “Inocencia”, which both show the country in a sympathetic light. With cute kids, an international star and already released in Cuba, “A Translator” is my pick.

 CZECH REPUBLIC- “The Painted Bird” In a relatively weak year for the Czech Republic, two historical drama about Jews during World War II- “The Painted Bird” and “Toman”- look to be the frontrunners. Co-starring international actors like Harvey Keitel and Stellan Skarsgård and timed to be released around the Oscar deadline, I give “The Painted Bird” the edge. It’s a drama filmed in black + white about a Jewish boy sent to live with an aunt in the countryside to avoid Nazi persecution. When she dies, the boy is left on his own. Oscar loves kids in peril and WWII, although this has become less true over time. It's also supposedly in some weird pan-Slavic language, rather than in Czech. “Toman” tells the story of Zdeněk Toman, a Communist Oscar Schindler, who helped Jewish refugees to survive after World War II. The film, which got 13 Czech Lion nominations, is directed by Ondřej Trojan, perhaps best-known for his surprise Oscar nominee for “Zelary” 15 years ago. In third place,  I've got “Old-Timers”, a black comedy about two former political prisoners who set out to kill the Communist prosecutor who sent them to jail sixty years before. The Czechs usually showcase a lot of their best movies at the Karlovy Vary International Film Festival. Unfortunately, the Czechs have only nine films there this year and virtually no Oscar contenders. Four are ineligible (two are minority co-productions with Slovakia, one is a TV movie and one is a short) and three are unlikely documentaries. Other than “Old-Timers”, their only other option from KV is “A Certain Kind of Silence”, about an au pair living with a Czech family. Rounding out the Top Five Czech options is “The Lady Terrorist”, a comedy about an elderly woman who decides to take the law into her own hands. 

 DENMARK- “Queen of Hearts” With seven shortlist spots (and five Oscar nominations) in the past nine years, Denmark is arguably the most successful film in the Oscar competition today. The Danes understand Academy voters very well, and there are four films that could easily represent the Kingdom this year. Traditionally, Denmark announces a three-film shortlist a month before their announcement. This year, I predict the three films will be: “Before the Frost” (Toronto 2018), “Queen of Hearts” (Audience Award, Sundance 2019), and the upcoming hostage drama “Daniel”. A lot of people are talking about the first two, but not about “Daniel”, which tells the story of Danish photographer Daniel Rye who was taken hostage by ISIS in Syria and held captive for over a year. "Daniel" won't be released until August, but it is guaranteed to interest American audiences. Also, director Niels Arden Oplev (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”) is a known quantity. There are admittedly no reviews yet and it remains to be seen how much English is in the film. Because of these question marks, I considered where Denmark is more likely to go with the traditional Scandinavian melodrama of “Before the Frost”, about a poor farmer marrying his daughter off to a wealthy family for financial gain in 19^th century Denmark, or the more edgy mother-stepson incest drama “Queen of Hearts”, which is said to feature an Oscar-worthy performance by Trine Dyrholm. I've gone back and forth between all three of these, but for now I'm going with the highest-profile film, "Queen of Hearts". If too much English disqualifies “Daniel”, I predict thriller “Sons of Denmark” about the clash between Islamism and nationalism in Denmark to get the final shortlist spot. Also threats for the Final Three (though probably not to win the nomination): World War I drama “In Love and War” (which got better reviews overseas than in Denmark), and crime thriller “Holiday” (which won Best Picture at the Bodil Awards). 

  DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Miriam Lies” I remember when it was difficult to find even one good film to predict from the Dominican Republic, but the small Caribbean country now has a competitive national race year after year. This year’s two probable front-runners are “Miriam Lies” and “The Projectionist”. That doesn’t even include Berlinale entry “Holy Beasts” starring three-time Golden Globe nominee Geraldine Chaplin! (It has mixed reviews) I personally am hoping that Jose Maria Cabral is selected a third time for thriller “The Projectionist” since I loved his first two Oscar entries (“Jaque Mate” and “Carpinteros”). But the 30-year old director has been selected twice in the past eight years so the Dominican Academy may want to give a chance to another director, namely Natalia Cabral (Not sure if she is related to Jose Maria or not) for her well-reviewed debut feature “Miriam Lies”. "Miriam" shines a light on the complicated racial dynamics in the Dominican Republic, seen from the POV of a bi-racial teen. American audiences are likely to find this eminently relatable. In third place: “La isla rota”, a revenge drama about a man who seeks revenge on those who murdered his parents as a child, while Chaplin's “Holy Beasts” should come in fourth. In a weaker year, painter drama “Colours”, cross-cultural rom-com “Juanita” (by Leticia Tonos, who has also been selected twice) and National Film Award winner “Lo que siento por ti” could have been selected....but not in such a competitive year!

 ECUADOR- “The Longest Night” (La mala noche) Ecuador doesn’t have much to choose from this year, so they’ll probably send “The Longest Night” (La mala noche), a grim drama about an aging prostitute in debt to the mafia, and struggling to pay her daughter’s medical bills. It’s set to premiere in Ecuador in September after an international festival run that includes SXSW and the Cannes Film Market. However, they’ve made left-field choices in the past, choosing obscure, unknown films over better-known ones like Berlinale entry “Holiday”, and “Cenizas” (by the producer of “Moonlight”). So, we could also see them choose something last-minute like Chinese-language human trafficking drama “Montevideo”, or “Lo invisible”, a claustrophobic thriller about a 40-year old new mother with postpartum depression. 

 EGYPT- “Immobilia Crime Story” Egypt has a well-developed film industry churning out comedies, action movies and soap operas, but the Egyptian Academy has shown a clear preference for sending arthouse films from international festivals to the Oscars. In the past fifteen years, they’ve really only deviated from this once (big-budget action movie “The Island”). The two biggest films from the 2018 Cairo International Film Festival both seem rather unlikely...“Ext. Night”, about two men and a prostitute forced to share a room, was the only local film in the main competition line-up but it got very mixed reviews. “Poisonous Roses” won Best Arab Film but this grim, depressing film about Cairo’s impoverished tanners would be an unlikely choice to represent Egypt. I predict that the Egyptians will be deciding between a pair of thrillers: “Gunshot”, a murder-mystery about a man who appears to have been murdered in the middle of a riot, and “Immobilia Crime Story”, about an elderly shut-in who is cheated by a young woman he met on the Internet. The director of “Immobilia” (a famous Cairo apartment building) has been selected once before, so I give him the edge. In third place: action movie “The Passage” (by the director of “The Island”). In fourth: controversial dinner party drama “The Guest”. And finally in fifth: “Ext. Night”.

  ESTONIA- “Truth and Justice” It’s been mostly a quiet year in Estonia with one major exception- “Truth and Justice” became both the most expensive Estonian film ever and overcame “The Avengers” to be the most-watched film in Estonian history. The nearly 3-hour film is set in pre-independence Estonia from the 1870s-1890s, and it is based on a beloved national novel. It’s also the feature debut of Tanel Toom, who got a Short Film Oscar nomination in 2011. It’s uncertain whether this rural drama about farmers struggling to work the land will resonate outside of Estonia, but the country doesn’t have much else this year so it’s a pretty obvious selection. Distant runner-ups: “The Riddle of Jaan Niemand”, a historical drama about a peasant with amnesia and B&W sibling thriller “Scandinavian Silence” (Karlovy Vary).

 ETHIOPIA- “Fig Tree” Ethiopia hasn’t sent a film since 2015 but they do have a growing local film industry, as well as an annual international film festival in the capital. If they send a film, I predict it will be either “Fig Tree” or “Enchained”. “Fig Tree” was shortlisted last year by Israel but Ethiopia-born Israeli director Aalam-Warqe Davidian made the film in Ethiopia in Amharic with a largely local cast and Israeli crew. The film got warm reviews at a number of festivals for its story of an Ethiopian teen whose family emigrates to Israel during the civil war of the 1980s. She tries to figure out a way to get her Christian boyfriend included in the move. Historical drama “Enchained” (Quragnaye) was the only Ethiopian feature at the 2018 Addis Ababa Film Festival last year. It features two strangers- a student and an attorney- chained together while awaiting trial before the Queen in early 20^th century Ethiopia. “Fig Tree” is likely to run into nationality questions but it's more professionally made, so that’s my pick for now.

 FIJI- Nothing Fiji submitted a film once in 2005. The Attorney-General noted this year that the film industry is a major money maker for the islands, netting 97 million dollars in 2018- more than double what it earned just two years before. Almost all of this money is earned from hosting foreign TV and film productions. Unfortunately, I don’t think there have been any locally made Fijian features made in years.

 FINLAND- “One Last Deal” Although they don’t have any “big” movies, Finland has had a good film year and they have plenty of strong films to choose from, including five by previously submitted directors. I’m predicting they send “One Last Deal”, a drama about an aging antiques dealer that I unfortunately missed when it played here in DC. It’s directed by Klaus Härö who has represented Finland four times (more than any other director) and was shortlisted for “The Fencer”. Three other films are serious threats: the upcoming “Master Cheng”, about a Chinese immigrant in rural Finland, is directed by Mika Kaurismaki (Aki’s brother) who has never been selected before; “Juice” is an edgy musical biopic that was nominated for eight Jussi Awards last year and seems to have the same style as most recent Finnish Oscar entries; and “The Last Ones”, a gritty crime drama set in Lapland and directed by Estonia’s trippy Veiko Õunpuu. But last year Finland chose a movie nobody expected (and not many liked….although I loved “The Euthanizer”) so we could also see something unusual like documentary “Happiest Man on Earth” (which is so Finnish that foreign audiences won’t get it), period soap opera “Land of Hope”, or romantic-comedy “Aurora” (which played at SXSW and got an Amazon.com release). I still predict Härö gets a fifth shot at Oscar gold. 

 FRANCE- “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” Ten of the past twelve years, France has selected one of its films from the Cannes Film Festival (In 2012, Cannes entry “Rust and Bone” was a surprise snub; 2018, when France chose the unheralded “Memoir of War”, was the only other exception). If France goes that route, the race will probably be between “Les Miserables”, which shared the Jury Prize with Brazil’s “Bacurau”, or “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”, which won Best Screenplay. “Les Miserables” is not about Jean Valjean, Cosette and Eponine….it’s an urban drama about the 2005 riots in the mostly black and Arab suburbs of Paris. Directed by Mali-born Ladj Ly, it would be the first-ever French submission by a black filmmaker. 18^th century costume drama “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” is a about a woman painter who disguises herself as a lady’s maid to paint a woman who refuses to sit for a portrait. She ends up falling in love with the woman, who has stubbornly (and mysteriously) refused to get married. "Portrait" has better reviews overall (8.5 vs. 7.4 on IMDB; 100 vs. 73 on Rotten Tomatoes) and although France has shied away from costume dramas lately, the queer angle makes this a less traditional choice than most. France has only selected female-helmed films twice in the past ten years, so the film would also check the diversity box. In any case, both films will definitely make France’s shortlist (usually, but not always, five films). The other serious contender is “By the Grace of God” (Berlinale, Silver Bear) by Francois Ozon, a scathing drama about child abuse in the Catholic Church, a topic much more likely to interest American viewers than riots or painters. “Non-Fiction” by Olivier Assayas and starring Juliette Binoche should also figure into the mix. It’s arguably the highest-profile French film released so far in the US this year and it got warm notices in Venice and Toronto. Assayas caused a ruckus last year when he complained the French nomination system was unfair. He wanted to do a qualifying release for “Non-Fiction” and the French Academy apparently turned him down. His complaints reportedly led to a rule change in favor of qualifying releases this year. I think "Non-Fiction" will be on the shortlist but will fail to make it through. Although I think France will choose one of the Big Three (“Miserables”, “Portrait” and “Grace”), France has dozens of films to choose from. I think the fifth film on the shortlist will be “The Best Years of a Life”, the sequel to the 1966 Foreign Oscar winner “A Man and A Woman”…made 53 years later with the same director and cast! But we could just as easily see dramedy “Sibyl”, adoption drama “In Safe Hands”, costume drama “Emperor of Paris”, synchronized swimming comedy “Sink or Swim” (which is a cute movie, but which would be a terrible choice), or “Who You Think I Am”, starring Juliette Binoche as a middle-aged woman who creates a fake Facebook profile. Potential wild-cards: two films with foreign directors- With an all-star cast including Catherine Deneuve and Ethan Hawke, “La Verité” (The Truth) sounds like an Oscar winner and it could benefit from the "qualifying release" rule change. But with a Japanese director (the brilliant Hirokazu Koreeda) it may not be eligible. Same goes for “It Must Be Heaven”, directed by Palestine’s Elia Suleiman and starring Gael Garcia Bernal. As for Roman Polanski, he could be shortlisted but I think the controversy surrounding his rape conviction will prevent "An Officer and a Spy" from being seriously considered. My Final Prediction: France returns to Cannes with “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”, with “Les Miserables” in second, “Grace of God” in third, “Best Years” in fourth and “Non-Fiction” in fifth. 

 GEORGIA- “Parade” There’s little doubt that the most critically acclaimed Georgian film of the year is dance drama “And Then We Danced” which got a standing ovation at Cannes Director’s Fortnight. However, traditional dance is a sacred art form in Georgia and the gay love story between two dancers has not made conservatives happy. The film seems unlikely to screen in Georgia and, if people complain, the Georgians can (accurately) claim that it’s not a fully Georgian production. The director is a Swedish citizen (the son of Georgian immigrants) and the film received no Georgian funding. For an article on the controversy see here. I wonder if Sweden could consider it instead? In any case, with “Danced” out of the running, Georgia will probably send “Parade”, a comedy-drama about three aging friends who have fallen on hard times. It won Best Georgian Feature at the Tbilisi International Film Festival and reviewers say that it resonates strongly with the Georgian psyche. Foreign audiences may have a harder time relating to the joy of frequenting a prostitute. Other options: “Neighbors” (Kyiv Molodist), a dark comedy about neighbors competing to sell their land, or “Brighton 4”, about Georgian immigrants to New York.

 GERMANY- "All About Me" Germany has one of the most confusing races of the year. On paper, it would seem that the strongest contender is "All About Me", a comedy-drama biopic about the youth of one of Germany's most beloved comedians. It was a critical, audience and box-office success, it finished in third place at Germany's National Film Awards (the top two films aren't eligible) and it's directed by Oscar winner Caroline Link, who won this category in 2003. However, it's rather "mainstream" and hasn't really won awards or played at international festivals. American audiences will have little idea who comedian Hape Kerkeling is. But what else would they choose? Germany's two films in competition at Berlinale- "I Was At Home But..." (Best Director) and "System Crasher"- have proved divisive with critics. I'd say that both of these films about problematic pre-teens would be unlikely nominees, and Germany wants to be nominated every year. "Deutschstunde", scheduled for release on October 3rd, would be a more likely choice; Germany often does qualifying releases and this drama about a village slow to change Nazi censorship rules even after WWII looks very much like the sort of film Germany usually chooses. I have it in second place. A lot of people are talking about serial killer thriller "The Golden Glove" directed by Fatih Akin, but that's divisive too. Even those critics who liked the film have said they're horrified by the nihilism and violence. Other films that will likely be on the German shortlist (usually about ten to twelve films): "25 km/h", "Brecht", "Cleo: If I Could Turn Back time", The Collini Case", "Lost in Klessin" and "A Regular Woman". "All About Me" is my prediction for now, but I'm not at all confident about it. 

  GHANA- “The Burial of Kojo” Ghana’s official Oscar selection committee was approved in 2017 but they've never yet sent a film to compete. That is likely to change this year as Ghana has two promising films- “The Burial of Kojo” and “Azali” (Hope). “The Burial of Kojo” is backed by Netflix and thus the definite front-runner. It’s a magical realist tale about a girl trying to save her father when he is trapped in a mining accident engineered by her evil uncle. It’s gotten quite good reviews from Western critics and should be able to beat “Azali”, which premiered in Ghanaian cinemas in October 2018. “Azali” is about a young girl from rural northern Ghana who is stranded in a slum in the capital city (in the south) and forced to try and find a way back home. It’s possible that only one (or none) of these two films will meet the Oscar screening requirements but both would mark a strong debut for Ghana in the Oscar competition.

 GREECE- “Her Job” Greece has no clear front-runner. Instead they have a number of small dramas, primarily mostly wordless stories about marginalized people with economic problems and unhappy home lives. The most likely option is “Her Job”, about an unhappy housewife who finds meaning in her life through a job as a cleaning lady at the local mall. “Her Job” has won awards at both the Hellenic Film Awards and the Thessaloniki Film Festival (the two main Greek precursors). Although it failed to win Best Greek Film at either, it has been at more festivals than any Greek film of the year. If it’s not “Her Job”, I’d expect Greece will choose “Still River”, about a Greek couple in Russia who find themselves confronted with an unexpected and theoretically impossible pregnancy. Also possible (in order): film noir “The Waiter”, about a waiter who finds a dead body, patriotic war drama “Poliorkia”, and Berlinale drama “Miracle of the Sargasso Sea” about the lives of two women in an eel fishing town. One wild card is whether Greece will consider two Greek Cypriot productions (“Pause” and “Smuggling Hendrix”) that have gotten better reviews than anything coming out of Greece this year. (See CYPRUS below). In previous years, the “Greek Film Winner” at Thessaloniki would automatically go to the Oscars. This year, that was “Refuge II”, a strange horror film which I don't expect will be seriously considered.

 GREENLAND- “Wind” Greenland (population: 60,000) has the smallest population of any of the 121 Oscar countries and they’ve submitted films twice, in 2010 and 2012. The recently completed “Anori” (Wind) is touted as the first film ever to be made by a Greenlandic woman filmmaker and it got a qualifying release in October 2018. It’s a drama/thriller starring Nukaka Coster-Waldau (wife of Nikolaj) as a Greenlandic woman who travels to New York to help her boyfriend return home after an accident. Filmed in Greenland and New York, this is likely to be Greenland’s third-ever submission.  

  GUATEMALA- “Our Mothers” Guatemala has only submitted films to the Oscars twice, most recently in 2015 with Mayan drama “Ixcanul”. Well, the director (Jayro Bustamente) and editor (Cesar Diaz) of that film screened their new films in Berlin Panorama and Cannes Critics Week respectively- a major accomplishment for Guatemala's national cinema. If the guatemaltecos are smart, they’ll stagger the release dates so that one can go to the Oscars this year and the other can be sent next year. My prediction for 2019 is “Our Mothers” (the Cannes entry) about an anthropologist researching the Mayan victims of the Guatemalan dictatorship. It’s Camera d’Or win makes it the front-runner over “Temblores” (Tremors), a shocking look at a young father’s brutal experience with gay conversion therapy in Guatemala’s evangelical Christian community. But really, it will depend on what gets released in Guatemala.

 HAITI- “Je m’en souviens” Haiti has only sent a film to the Oscars once in 2017 and their film industry is almost non-existent, consisting mostly of low-budget, straight-to-video efforts. They could send “I Remember” (Je m’en souviens), a thriller about a woman who returns to Haiti after many years abroad but I think they’ll skip. For an interesting article on the current problems faced by Haitian filmmakers, see here.

  HONDURAS- “Café con sabor a mi tierra” Honduras joined the Oscar race in 2017. They skipped last year because they didn’t have a suitable entry, they’ll probably be back this year with coffee-themed drama “Café con sabor a mi tierra”, a beautiful rural drama about the people who live and work on the coffee plantations that provide Honduras with much of its export income.

 HONG KONG- “Project Gutenberg” For Hong Kong, I’m predicting twisty crime thriller “Project Gutenberg”. The film dominated the 2019 Hong Kong Film Awards and director Felix Chong has never been honored before, despite writing “Infernal Affairs” which inspired Best Picture winner “The Departed”. Hong Kong has other options, but none of them seem particularly likely. “A Family Tour” and “The Assassination of G” seem too subversive to be selected in Hong Kong’s current political environment (the Hong Kong Academy selected a nauseatingly pro-China flick last year). Big-budget action movie “Warriors of Future” doesn’t have a release date on the calendar. “Still Human”, about the relationship between an elderly man and his Filipina maid, might be a more Academy-friendly choice but it's a small and intimate film. “Three Husbands”, a film about a nymphomaniac prostitute that dominated the Hong Kong Film Critics Awards, is currently ranked second place on my list...but it's probably too sexual and weird. The Hong Kong Academy has demonstrated a strong affection for triad movies, so “Gutenberg” is the best guess I’ve got. In the past, Hong Kong has often used its Oscar submission to advertise upcoming films via a qualifying release (which bodes well for sci-fi actioner “Warriors of Future”) or to send a film that should rightfully be representing Mainland China. Interestingly enough, Zhang Yimou’s “Shadows” was released last year in China, but this year in Hong Kong. Could “Shadow” represent Hong Kong this year? It would be a smart move, albeit one that doesn’t really follow the rules.

 HUNGARY-“One Day” The big question mark for Hungary is whether 81-year old Oscar winner István Szabó’s “Final Report” will be released by September 30. Szabó was selected by Hungary seven times between 1967-1992, netting four Oscar nominations, including a win for “Mephisto”. His latest (and possible final film) is a social drama reuniting Szabo with frequent collaborator Klaus Maria Brandauer about an aging physician in Budapest who returns to his hometown after retirement. He agrees to begin the local town physician, but soon crosses paths with the powerful mayor. It seems the film is finished, but not released (it’s probably looking for a meaty festival slot). For now, I’m assuming the film will not be released in time and that the Hungarian nominee will be “One Day” (Cannes Critics Week 2018), a critical look at a woman suffering through a dysfunctional marriage. Of course, if "Final Report" is released, it will be selected without any problem. Other options (in order of likelihood): “Trezor”, a twisty heist movie set during the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, “Bad Poems”, a dramedy about a man going through a bitter break-up, and “X The eXploited”, a murder mystery about a policewoman with panic attacks who is tracking a serial killer.

 ICELAND- “The County” Until last week, it seemed as if tiny Iceland had six eligible films all by relatively new directors who have never represented Iceland before. "A White White Day" (Cannes Critics Week), about a police officer obsessed with learning whether his late wife was having an affair, was the only front-runner.  Then it was announced that the hotly anticipated "The County" (by Grímur Hákonarson, "Rams") would be released on September 20th, knocking “A White, White Day” off its pedestal.  "The County" is about a widowed farmer taking on corruption in her rural community. It hasn't yet been screened but it's already been sold internationally and has a lot of buzz.  Instead of an elite selection committee, Iceland chooses its Oscar nominee via a vote of its entire Academy, and both films have high-profile casts. I think this will be a very close race, with "The County" likely to win by a relatively small margin. “Pity the Lovers”, a romantic drama about two brothers looking for love, earning a few strays for third place. Out of the running: hostage comedy “Taka 5” (which sounds like “Cecil B. Demented”) and adolescent crime drama “Eden” have gotten respectable reviews, while “The Deposit” and “Mihkel” are simply out of their league.

POSSIBLE DEBUT:

 CYPRUS- "Smuggling Hendrix" Cyprus is the only EU country that has never entered the Oscar race. Last year I highlighted the fact that Cyprus had two award-winning films on the international film festival circuit- drama "Pause" and comedy "Smuggling Hendrix". Well, both of them finally premiered at home in April 2019 at the Cyprus Film Days Festival, where "Hendrix" won Best Cypriot Film. "Hendrix", about a man whose dog escapes across the barbed-wire boundary line from the Greek side to the Turkish side of Cyprus, also got a domestic release in May. It's very possibly going to be the first-ever submission from Cyprus. I saw it last year and it's a charming film.