Foreign Films

NOMINATION PREDICTIONS and SHORTLIST REVIEW

2012-01-21T20:28:00.000-08:00

Four of out of nine....This is the worst I've done since I started keeping this blog.....CANADA's "Monsieur Lazhar", IRAN's "A Separation" and POLAND's "In Darkness" were obvious, and should have no trouble making the five-film nomination stage.....I also got ISRAEL's esoteric "Footnote", which most people also predicted....

I'm kicking myself for dropping MOROCCO (the one that seems to have surprised everyone) from my list the day before....I should have known that the Oscar committee can't get enough of producer Rached Bouchareb, and "Omar"'s topical, baity plotline. And I should have also guessed that the elite committee would save GERMANY's "Pina", which I'm pretty sure could not have gotten past the regular committee.

That said, I'm pretty surprised at BELGIUM, DENMARK, and especially TAIWAN, which I thought was an also-ran for sure. DENMARK's lightweight comedy "Superclasico" did have good buzz around it....BELGIUM's crime drama "Bullhead" had great buzz too, and I mistakenly placed it low down my list since it's actually a bad film (I saw it in October). I should have known they don't decide on quality. TAIWAN's four-hour plus violent action opus "Seediq Bale" apparently wowed some voters, although I'm pretty certain that the Taiwanese (with Belgium and Germany) were saved by the big committee.

I guess the Belgians and the Danes can now be forgiven for ignoring their respective Oscar front-runners ("The Kid With a Bike" and "A Family")!

I was quite shocked to see FINLAND ("Le Havre") and FRANCE ("Declaration of War") missing from the list, and to a lesser extent, also MEXICO's "Miss Bala". I think "Le Havre" was a decent film, but I dislike Kaurismaki, so I was sort of happy to see him snubbed.

But it's now a new day....The five nominations will be announced on Tuesday and it'll be a close one....I can see any of these nine films going the distance, but here are my predictions:

SURE THINGS
1. IRAN- "A Separation"
2. POLAND- "In Darkness"
3. CANADA- "Monsieur Lazhar"

Difficult to see any of these well-reviewed candidates missing....

ON THE BUBBLE
4. MOROCCO- "Omar Killed Me"
5. ISRAEL- "Footnote"
6. BELGIUM- "Bullhead"

Morocco's French film is easily the most accessible of these three films jockeying for the other two spots.

DARK HORSES
7. GERMANY- "Pina"
8. DENMARK- "Superclasico"
9. TAIWAN- "Seediq Bale"

Boy this is going to be close! GERMANY's dance documentary is easily the favorite and critical darling, but this visually dazzling film is not what is usually honored here....DENMARK's "Superclasico" is supposed to be charming and funny, but reviews are easily the weakest of the nine films here, and "charming and funny" didn't help "Simple Simon" to make the finals last year (although it worked for BELGIUM's "Everybody Famous!"). TAIWAN is the only film I really think is unlikely....but I could be wrong again!

Two other short notes....For those of you want to see films on the list for yourself:

1. The films from COLOMBIA and URUGUAY are available to watch or rent in the US on Netflix or Amazon, with PERU coming out next month.

2. The films from CHINA, FINLAND, FRANCE, GERMANY, MEXICO and the real entry from ALBANIA (The Forgiveness of Blood) are in US cinemas, or coming soon.

3. You can buy the movies from GERMANY, GREECE, IRAN, IRELAND, KOREA, NETHERLANDS, SPAIN, SWEDEN and the UK with English subtitles (most very expensive!!) on Ebay or similar sites, and also BRAZIL and CUBA without subtitles.

4. The films from INDIA and INDONESIA are on Youtube (probably illegally!) with no English subtitles.

And since there are OTHER categories in the Oscar race, here are my predictions for the major categories, in order of likelihood:

PICTURE: : The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Tree of Life, Harry Potter 8 (ALT: Drive, Moneyball, Bridesmaids, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, My Week with Marilyn)
ACTOR: Clooney, Pitt, Fassbender, DuJardin and Bichir (ALT: Leo diCaprio)
ACTRESS: Streep, Davis, Williams, Swinton and Close (ALT: Rooney Mara)
SUPP. ACTOR: Plummer, Branagh, Brooks, Nolte, Hammer (ALT: Jonah Hill)
SUPP. ACTRESS:: Spencer, Bejo, Woodley, McTeer, Chastain (ALT: Melissa McCarthy)
DIRECTOR:: Hazanavicius, Scorsese, W. Allen, Payne, Fincher (ALT: Nicolas Winding Refn)

SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS

2012-01-17T09:03:00.000-08:00

Well, the 9-film Foreign Film shortlist will come out today (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday), so it's time to draft my list of predictions...I'm fairly confident about the first seven films on the list, but the other two will really depend on the Elite Committee....

Will they be forced to use their "three film save" to nominate acclaimed movies like "Le Havre" and "A Separation"? Or will those films find favor with the larger committee, allowing them to go right-field with divisive choices like "Pina" or "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"?

Will the large committee choose "Oscary" films that have gotten mostly bad reviews, like "Sonny Boy" and "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel"? We'll find out very soon.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. IRAN- Nader & Simin: A Separation
2. CANADA- Monsieur Lazhar
3. POLAND- In Darkness
4. FINLAND- Le Havre
5. FRANCE- Declaration of War
6. MEXICO- Miss Bala
7. ISRAEL- Footnote
8. AUSTRIA- Breathing
9. CHINA- Flowers of War

VERY STRONG POSSIBILITIES
10. NETHERLANDS- Sonny Boy (Large Committee Only)
11. HONG KONG- A Simple Life
12. MOROCCO- Omar Killed Me
13. GERMANY- Pina (Elite Committee Only)
14. ICELAND- Volcano

DARK HORSES
15. IRELAND- As If I Am Not There
16. SPAIN- Black Bread
17. NORWAY- Happy, Happy
18. RUSSIA- Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel (Large Committe Only)
19. LEBANON- Where Do We Go Now?
20. SWEDEN- Beyond
21. TURKEY- Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Elite Committee Only)
22. HUNGARY- The Turin Horse (Elite Committee Only)
23. NEW ZEALAND- The Orator
24. DENMARK- Superclasico

REAL LONGSHOTS
25. BULGARIA- Tilt
26. BELGIUM- Bullhead
27. JAPAN- Postcard
28. SLOVAKIA- Gypsy
29. COLOMBIA- Colors of the Mountain
30. ITALY- Terraferma
31. CHILE- Violeta

I don't see anyone else as having a real shot.....

LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION- Uruguay's low-budget horror movie "The Silent House" (which isn't a bad movie but is definitely out of its league here...)

MOST LIKELY TO GET THEIR FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION- Morocco, for "Omar Killed Me"

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to let me know...

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- The Americas, Africa and Oceania (16 Films)

2012-01-16T19:15:00.001-08:00

The official Oscar list should come out tomorrow, so here are the films from Africa, the Americas and the Pacific:

CRIPPLED OUT OF THE GATE:
16. PUERTO RICO- "America"

I'm so angry that PUERTO RICO was disqualified...AMPAS decided that Puerto Rico no longer qualifies as a country even though they have entered the Oscar competition since 1986, earning one Oscar nomination. Although there has been no recent change in Puerto Rico's political status and although AMPAS does recognize Greenland (an autonomous region of Denmark), Hong Kong (an autonomous region of China), Palestine (an occupied territory) and Taiwan (an unrecognized republic) as countries (and I agree that they are), AMPAS decided all of a sudden to uninvite Puerto Rico last year. I'm quite angry at this ridiculous decision.

Apparently, the Puerto Ricans were informed about this ridiculous decision last year, but they decided to submit "America" anyway. It's about a woman who flees an abusive relationship to move to New York City and develops friendships with a group of Spanish-speaking nannies from around Latin America. For those of you who try to see all the Oscar submissions each year, please try to see "America", which co-stars Oscar nominee Edward James Olmos. I will!

As a quick PS.....AMPAS promised in their decision that Puerto Rican films would be allowed to compete in the "main categories" as American releases. However, "America" did not appear in the AMPAS list of eligible releases since it did not get a Los Angeles release. Ridiculous.

NO CHANCE:
15. URUGUAY- "La Casa Muda"
14. EGYPT- "Lust"
13. ARGENTINA- "Aballay"
12. SOUTH AFRICA- "Beauty"
11. CUBA- "Habanastation"

Better luck next year for these five countries, and their unusual choices for Oscar. URUGUAY's "Silent House" is probably this year's biggest longshot....Reportedly made for only 6000 US dollars, this film claims to be the first horror film shot in one single shot. The film is about a young woman trapped in a mysterious abandoned house (with a killer? with ghosts?) You can watch it (like I did) on Amazon. A low-budget horror film is not exactly an Oscar draw but with a US remake already released and an impressive recoup on its budget, the film is a great success and an interesting (though very imperfect) watch.

EGYPT's soap opera "Lust", filmed prior to the revolution in Egypt, is said to foreshadow much of the dissatisfaction with the Mubarak era. Though it is acclaimed for a tour-de-force perfomance by lead actress Susan Badr, the film has gotten mixed reviews for its class-driven story of a woman trying to claw her way back from poverty, back into the middle-class from whence she came. Other than "Silent House", it got the lowest rating of these films on IMDB, and a rather mixed reception.

ARGENTINA and SOUTH AFRICA have gotten a much more varied reception. "Aballay" is a brutally violent western about a man who seeks revenge on the man who murdered his family in front of him as a child. That man (Aballay) has since seen the error of his ways and pursued a life of peace and nonviolence. "Beauty" is the first South African film about the country's white community to be selected since 1997 (and ironically the first-ever South African submission by a non-white director!). "Beauty" is about a closeted gay man who lusts after his nephew's friend...Both films have their fans, but also a lot of detractors. Argentina's film especially is said to be all over the place and perhaps a bit over-the-top...Both are too divisive to make the next round.

CUBA's "Habanastation" counts Michael Moore among its fans, and the documentarian has worked to get the film screened in the US. However, this story about two 12-year old boys who go from become enemies to being friends is said to be largely for younger audiences and doesn't have the gravitas to make Round Two. It is said to be an interesting look into "class conflict" in Cuba, where rich and poor continue to exist despite decades of Communism.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK
10. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- "Love Child"
9. PERU- "Octubre"
8. BRAZIL- "Tropa de Elite 2"
7. VENEZUELA- "Rumble of the Stones"

These four Latino films have gotten generally good reviews (especially Venezuela) but are extreme long-shots to make the Top Nine films worldwide. The biggest is obviously BRAZIL's high-octane blockbuster sequel "Tropa de Elite 2". The original "Tropa de Elite" was hotly tipped to rep Brazil in 2007, but was beat out by "The Day My Parents Went on Vacation". Considering the failure of "City of God" to make the shortlist, this was a wise move ("Vacation" was the last Brazilian film to make the shortlist, though it didn't really deserve it). Choosing a sequel is risky (will viewers "get it" without seeing the original) and this genre has traditionally done nothing for the Academy. The film has gotten good reviews, but won't score here.

The Dominicans and Peruvians have the opposite problem...Their films (a dramatic comedy and a comedic drama) are very "small". PERU's "Octubre", about a small-time loan shark who finds a baby abandoned on his doorstep by a local prostitute, won Un Certain Regard in Cannes 2010, but it's quite minimalist and will probably get lost in the crowd. The DOMINICAN REPUBLIC rejoins the competition for the first time since 1995's silly but fun comedy "Nueba Yol". Welcome back! They've chosen quirky comedy "Love Child" (La Hija Natural), about a girl who searches for her biological father after the untimely death of her mother. It's supposed to be a good film with lots of local culture but I don't fancy it's chance of making the Top Nine. Still, it's an excellent opportunity for Dominican cinema to be seen by some of Hollywood's movers and shakers. I look forward to seeing "Child", and I never would have heard of the film without this competition.

For the second year in a row, VENEZUELA has selected a strong social drama about a poor Venezuelan family headed by a hard-working single mother with two sons. That said, this year's "Rumble of the Stones", about a family who moved to Caracas years after devastating floods destroyed their rural home, has gotten less publicity than last year's "Hermano". In the end, I think "Stones" will place fairly well, but the gritty subject matter and occasional lapses into soap opera (so I've heard) will make it finish high...but not high enough....

VERY DARK HORSES
6. CHILE- "Violeta"
5. NEW ZEALAND- "The Orator"
4. COLOMBIA- "Colors of the Mountain"

Chile and Colombia, each fighting for their first Oscar nomination, have each chosen films with a strongly local flavor. "Violeta", from CHILE, is an autobiographical film about Violeta Parra, a beloved leftist folk singer who committed suicide in 1967. "Colors of the Mountain", from COLOMBIA is about a young boy and his friends growing up amidst the violent Colombian countryside where ordinary people are caught up in the war between the military and FARC guerillas. You can see "Colors of the Mountain" on Netflix if you like. Both films have gotten good reviews and have a very small chance at making the Oscar shortlist. In the end, I think "Violeta" is too local (few have probably heard of Violeta Parra in Los Angeles....I know I haven't), and while "Colors" may benefit from its baity "cute children in peril" plotline, I think it will be left behind by bigger films. The large committee probably won't rank it in the Top Six, and the small committee will be too busy rescuing bigger films. We'll see...

Then there's "The Orator" from SAMOA, although it is representing NEW ZEALAND. Director Tusi Tamasese is a NZ citizen based in Wellington, but the film truly belongs to the tiny island nation of SAMOA, the home of its cast and of the Samoan language, put on film for the first time. This exotic and original tale is about a little person (a Samoan Peter Dinklage??) from a chiefly family and the village intrigues surrounding him, his normal-sized wife, her child, and his family. It's been warmly received, but most people note that the film is most outstanding for providing a window into Samoan culture. Tamasese is a debut director, and the Oscars have not widely embraced films that are notable primarily for cultural interest (i.e. "Ten Canoes", "Story of the Weeping Camel"). "The Orator" is a dark horse, but may just miss the cut.

STRONG CONTENDERS
3. MOROCCO- "Omar Killed Me"
2. MEXICO- "Miss Bala"

Two "based on a true story" dramas have a good chance of making the final list....

MEXICO's "Miss Bala", a thriller about a girl from the barrio who ends up getting mixed up with gangsters and drug dealers in an effort to win a local beauty pageant, easily has some of the best foreign-language reviews of the year. It's not a sure thing, but its strong reviews and wide appeal should overcome skittishness about violence (like "Amores Perros") and make the Final Nine and ultimately probably the Final Five. It will soon be released Stateside. Can't wait.

If we're going to be honest, "Omar Killed Me" is a French film, but it's representing MOROCCO, and giving that North African country their best-ever chance for a nomination. The film has much the same team as the Oscar nominated "Indigenes" and "Outside the Law" (which both represented Algeria), with Moroccan-French Roschdy Zem (who co-starred in those two films) directing Sami Bouajila (who also co-starred in both films) while Rachid Bouchareb (who wrote and directed those two films) co-wrote and producd. "Omar" is based on a famous murder case from the South of France in which a Moroccan immigrant is accused of killing a wealthy French woman. He is convicted on the basis of the French woman allegedly writing "Omar m'a tuer" on the wall in her dying moments...For those of you who speak French, this is an obvious grammatical error that no French person would ever make, making it highly unlikely that this educated lady would have one it herself. "Omar" is said to be a strong legal drama and an "issue film" about racial discrimination in France. Reviews have been positive but far from perfect...This team and these issues have resonated with the Oscar committee before and this film film will be on the bubble to make the next round.

EXCELLENT CHANCE
1. CANADA- "Monsieur Lazhar"- Almost as much of a lock as "A Separation", Canada's "Monsieur Lazhar" is about an Algerian immigrant (is he illegal?) who substitutes for a Quebecois middle school class after their teacher commits suicide. "Lazhar" pushes all the Oscar buttons- great reviews, esteemed teacher, cute kids, social issues, French language. It's been quietly earning strong notices from nearly all the critics that have seen it and should be considered a real threat for the win. Canada has been shortlisted four of the past five years (ironically the best one, "I Killed My Mother", was NOT shortlisted) and this one will probably be added to the pile.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 32- 8 from North America, 9 from South America, 12 from Africa and 3 from Oceania.

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: Puerto Rico, for the dumbest reasons ever. (See Below). I’ve also heard that the Central African Republic was disqualified from sending “Oka”. Although it was set and filmed in that remote country, “Oka” had an American director, an international cast and no evidence of any significant local crew.

Number of countries opting out: 16, I suppose….But nine of these countries have only submitted a film one time (especially the Africans), and two others (Australia and Nicaragua) don’t appear to have any eligible films. Also absent this year: ALGERIA (nominated last yeasr), BOLIVIA, ECUADOR, TUNISIA and, most surprisingly COSTA RICA, which had probably their best-ever film year ever and whose “Of Love and Demons” was supposedly well-received last year. I was sure they would send child abuse drama “Cold Water of the Sea”.

From Africa, I really thought we’d see CHAD and CONGO-KINSHASA rejoining the competition. “Viva Riva”, a gangster drama set in Kinshasa, is easily the most acclaimed movie ever to come out of the war-torn CONGO, and it actually got a well-reviewed US release. Perhaps it didn’t get an Oscar-eligible release in Kinshasa? Anyway, it’s near the top of my Netflix queue...However, it’s CHAD’s “A Screaming Man” that shocked me by not being submitted. Mahamat-Saleh Haroun is impoverished Chad’s only film director and his “Abouna” was submitted in 2002. Since then, he has made two much more-acclaimed films including “A Screaming Man”, which won the Jury Prize in Cannes in 2010, and I can confirm it did get a local release in N’Djamena’s only cinema in January 2011. Chad is not likely to ever have a more likely contender. Oh well.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Three or four.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Six- Afrikaans (South Africa), Arabic (Egypt), French (Canada + Morocco), Portuguese (Brazil), Samoan (New Zealand) and Spanish (the other ten). I’ve heard that the South African film almost contained too much English to qualify.

Highest profile film: Two popular Latin American thrillers- Mexico’s beauty queen thriller, “Miss Bala” and Brazil’s box-office smash sequel “Tropa de Elite 2”.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Canada, as usual.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Uruguay’s low-budget horror movie “The Quiet House”.

Number of Comedies: The Dominican Republic sent in a comedy-drama, “Love Child”

Number of Animated Films or Documentaries: Colombia is said to have seriously considered an animated documentary, “Little Voices”, but ultimately passed it over.

Number of Horror Films: One straightforward horror film, “The Quiet House” from Uruguay.

Oscar History: New Zealand has entered the race for the first time, although the film really should be representing its native Samoa, instead of the Kiwis who funded it.

None of these directors have ever been nominated for an Oscar before but two- Venezuela’s Alejandro Bellame Palacios (“The Color of Fame”) and Chile’s Andres Wood (“Machuca”) have represented their countries in the Oscar race once before. Wood is said to have come close to a nomination.

Argentina, Canada and South Africa have all won the award at least once before, while Brazil and Mexico have been nominated on multiple occasions. Cuba, Peru and Puerto Rico have one Oscar nomination each, while the others (Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Egypt, Morocco, Uruguay and Venezuela) are awaiting their first official Oscar nomination. Uruguay was nominated and disqualified in 1993 after it was discovered the film was actually wholly Argentine. The Egyptians have been sending movies without luck since 1957, holding the record (tied with Portugal) of the most submissions without an Oscar nod.

Number of Female Directors: Two- the Dominican Republic’s Leticia Tonos and Puerto Rico’s Sonia Fritz, who was disqualified.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Argentina’s Fernando Spiner is the oldest at 53….. 28-year old Oliver Hermanus of South Africa is by far the youngest director in the entire competition this year , and it’s not even his film debut!

Familiar Faces: There really aren’t many familiar faces at all...French movie star Sami Bouajila, who plays the title lead in Morocco’s “Omar Killed Me”, is about as famous as it gets...I’m a fan of Canadian actress Danielle Proulx (the mom in “C.R.A.Z.Y.”) who co-stars in “Monsieur Lazhar"...And Edward James Olmos and Tony Plana (“Ugly Betty”) co-star in the disqualified submission from Puerto Rico.

Tough Choices: Small countries like Chile and Morocco had really great film years that made it difficult to choose just one film. Perhaps the highest-profile film to miss the Oscar race this year was Chile's "Post-Mortem" (Venice 2010) about a morgue attendant searching for a woman during the Pinochet era. Morocco's incest drama "Pegasus" won Best Picture at FESPACO in Burkina Faso, but lost the Oscar nod to majority French drama "Omar Killed Me" (a blow to local filmmakers, but also a wise move if they want to be nominated)

Argentina's Oscar winner Juan Jose Campanella made an inquiry directly to AMPAS to ask that "El Estudiante" be certified as eligible to rep Argentina (there was some technical issue that I didn't understand) and AMPAS said okay, leading many to believe that it would be selected over the other favorite, "Chinese Takeaway". Eventually both lost in a shock vote to unheralded western "Aballay". ("Chinese Takeaway" got sent to the Goyas (where it was nominated) AND won Best Picture over the other two at the Argentine Oscars in December. Cuba's "Ticket to Paradise" also got sent to the Goyas.

Egypt chose Cairo winner "Lust" over three other contenders including Omar Sharif's expensive "The Traveller", "Hawi" and my prediction, sexual harassment drama "Cairo 678".

Mexico's expensive "El Baile de San Juan" seemed like a good contender...until it opened to bad reviews.

Also out of luck this year: "Cafe de Flore" from Canada (trailer looks so great!), animated war documentary "Little Voices" from Colombia, "The Kid Who Lies" (Berlin) from Venezuela.

Controversies and Changes: The biggest controversy was the fact that AMPAS all of a sudden decided that Puerto Rican filmmakers don't deserve Oscar nominations. See above.

The DOMINICAN REPUBLIC was briefly disqualified when it was announced its Oscar committee hadn't been submitted to AMPAS in advance (they hadn't entered the competition in 16 years), but that was eventually resolved.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I got Colombia, Peru, Puerto Rico, South Africa and Venezuela, plus I predicted “The Orator” would get sent by Samoa upon its release. I came really close with Brazil and Mexico...kicking myself for not getting those two easy ones...

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen Uruguay’s “La Casa Muda” but I’m really looking forward to seeing SOUTH AFRICA's acclaimed LGBT drama “Beauty”.

Last year's race: Last year, these three regions sent 16 films and they took four spots on the nine-film shortlist. I managed to see the ones from Algeria, Argentina, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Nicaragua, Peru, South Africa and Venezuela. PERU's “Contracorriente” was far and away the best one, while Argentina and Colombia were the worst.

TOMORROW: Final Predictions for the 9-film shortlist

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Asia (16 Films)

2012-01-07T09:47:00.001-08:00

Oscar has little taste for Asia, but many people are saying this could be their year! With IRAN's engrossing drama "A Separation" the deserved frontrunner for the award, films from CHINA, ISRAEL, JAPAN, LEBANON and TURKEY are also being talked about for potential nominations....In reality, I think only two of these have a good chance (see below) as does the dark horse from HONG KONG....But in a relatively weak year, it's anybody's game.

NO CHANCE IN HELL:
16. KAZAKHSTAN- "Returning to the A"
15. INDONESIA- "Under the Protection of the Ka'bah"
14. THAILAND- "Kon Khon"
13. SINGAPORE- "Tatsumi"

Better luck next year to four of my favorite countries...Once again, I applaud all of them for entering the competition (especially Singapore, which makes a lot of fun films and which is returning to the competition after a two-year absence) and getting their films seen in Hollywood.

INDONESIA and THAILAND have chosen visually rich period dramas that did not get particularly good reviews at home. In fact, both have been dismissed as little more than soap operas..."Under the Protection of the Ka'bah" is based on an acclaimed novel and set in 1920s Sumatra. With a budget of nearly 3 million US dollars (high by local standards), "Ka'bah" took nearly three years to make. It sounds impressive on paper but this religious melodrama about a poor boy who falls in love with a rich girl and dreams of a pilgrimage to Mecca (also a theme in the Indian submission) got mixed reviews even in Indonesia. THAILAND (where I used to live) has chosen a film set in the 1960s focusing on the rivalry of two traditional "khon" dance troupes. "Kon Khon" was a box-office flop in Thailand and got mixed reviews. Even the Ministry of Culture is under no illusions about the film's Oscar chances, saying that it was selected for its ability to promote Thai culture through cinema (which it does through lovely performances of Thai "khon" dance). For a good review of Thailand's submissions over the years see the following article from CNN. http://www.cnngo.com/bangkok/life/thailands-18-oscar-picks-its-all-about-culture-260964

KAZAKHSTAN 's film, a 3D action movie about a documentary film crew getting into trouble in modern-day Afghanistan, looks like a total mess. The trailer looks like a straight-to-video 80s action movie and I don't think it has played at a single international film festival. The Kazakhs usually send good movies to the competition and expect them to be in the running next year with expensive period epic "Myn Bala".

Unlike the other three, SINGAPORE's film has actually managed to get good reviews...However, it doesn't pass the mainstream test. A Japanese-language homage to an obscure Japanese comic book artist, this graphic animated film recreates scenes from Yoshihiro Tatsumi's life as well as some of his most disturbing stories. I look forward to seeing it (more so than the other three) but it's simply too weird and not what Oscar goes for....

ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY

12. TAIWAN- "Seediq Bale: Warriors of the Rainbow"
11. VIETNAM- "The Prince and the Pagoda Boy"
10. PHILIPPINES- "The Woman in the Septic Tank"
9. KOREA- "The Front Line"

The Asian countries love to send in historical epics, which is what KOREA, TAIWAN and VIETNAM have done this year. Historical epics are always risky...On the one hand, they tend to have big budgets and impressive technical features...On the other, they often depend on knowing local history and, in Asia especially, often double as action movies with lots of blood and battlefield scenes.

TAIWAN's "Seediq Bale: Warriors of the Rainbow" is sure to alienate Oscar voters with its 4-hour, 25-minute running time and its rampant bloody beheadings. While it was a big hit in its native Taiwan, this film about aboriginal groups fighting against cultural annihilation during the early 20th century Japanese occupation of the island has not been warmly embraced by Western critics. The Hollywood Reporter complimented the period look, but said that non-stop fighting was "tedious" (and they screened an abridged 2 1/2 hour version!!)

VIETNAM's "Prince and the Pagoda Boy" (originally called "Thang Long Aspiration") is about a 9th century battle over the royal succession, filled with lovely costumes and lots of martial arts fighting. The Vietnamese are clearly trying to emulate recent Chinese period epics. There's very little information on the film online but the one Western review I saw was largely negative.

SOUTH KOREA has a better shot with "The Front Line", a box-office hit drama about the closing days of the Korean War when both North and South were trying to make last-minute territorial gains in anticipation of a permanent ceasefire. I just bought it on ebay and am now waiting for it to arrive. Oscar has never gone for Korean films before (not even the great Korean War drama "Taegukgi"), and I think this film will strike Oscar voters as little more than a well-done action movie...not an Oscar nominee.

THE PHILIPPINES haven't chosen an epic at all...They've chosen another comedy (their third in six years), this one lampooning independent filmmaking in the Philippines. "The Woman in the Septic Tank" is a tongue-in-cheek movie about Filipino producers trying to make an Oscar-winning picture. To do that, they enlist an A-list actress (Eugene Domingo, playing a parody of herself) to play an impoverished Filipino woman whose life is falling apart, which indeed is what most Filipino films on the Film Fest circuit tend to be about! The film was a big hit and is said to be very clever, but probably has too much silliness and too many in-jokes to make a dent here. Hopefully it will entertain the committee....I think it looks great!

FAIRLY DARK HORSES-

8. INDIA- "Abu, Son of Adam"
7. TURKEY- "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"
6. JAPAN- "Postcard"
5. LEBANON- "Where Do We Go Now?"

All of these films will have their supporters, but lack a fundamental element in getting to the next round. From two of the Middle East's most cosmopolitan centers, LEBANON and TURKEY are often cited as among this year's favorites. Nuri Bilge Ceylan's "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" won the Jury Prize at Cannes, and Ceylan's "Three Monkeys" was shortlisted three years ago. Nadine Labaki's "Where Do We Go Now" won the People's Choice Award in Toronto, joining a series of films that went on to win Best Foreign Film (Antonia's Line, Life is Beautiful, Crouching Tiger and Tsotsi) and even Best Picture (American Beauty, King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire).

I think both films face an uphill battle....LEBANON's film is a comedy-drama based on the Lysistrata about Christian and Muslim women using sex to control their menfolk in a bitterly sectarian town. Toronto award notwithstanding, "Where" has actually gotten fairly unspectacular reviews, with some questioning whether it truly deserved the prize. It may be too lightweight although, as I keep saying, it's a weak year for foreign film. TURKEY's "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" is wowing auteur critics, but this slow, plotless film about a team looking for a corpse in rural Turkey is said to be a hard slog to get through. The Hollywood Reporter jokes that it takes 90 minutes before the film has its first plot point. The film sounds just awful (I hated Ceylan's "Distant", although "3 Monkeys" was better) but it does have a small chance of being selected by the Elite Committee (which they probably did with "Three Monkeys"). A real dark horse.

The films from INDIA and JAPAN have been well-received at home, but have not won any major awards outside their home countries. Both are said to be good films but lack the gravitas to advance to the next round. INDIA's "Abu, Son of Adam" is about a poor, elderly Muslim couple from Kerala (Southwest India) who dream of making a pilgrimage to Mecca before they die. JAPAN's "Postcard" is a semi-autobiographical film set in post-World War II Japan, when a soldier returns to his hometown to deliver a letter to the wife of a late soldier. Both films have wonderful backstories...."Abu" is a low-budget film that managed to beat hundreds of big-budget Hindi-language blockbusters to win Best Picture at the National Film Awards and grab the country's Oscar nod..."Postcard" is directed by a 99-year old respected director (and WWII veteran) who has said this will be his final film. In the end, both films are said to be overly sentimental (is that good or bad with the large committee) and appeal to local tastes and history. I simply don't have faith they can make it to the next round.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES:

4. HONG KONG- "A Simple Life"
3. ISRAEL- "Footnote"
2. CHINA- "Flowers of War"

I think that at least one of these films will be able to climb above the pack and join the Iranians on the shortlist...But which one? CHINA's 90 million dollar blockbuster "The Flowers of War" about the Rape of Nanjing from the perspective of an American man, looks great and is directed by Zhang Yimou. It's also one of only two Oscar submissions to get a Golden Globe nomination, which are a pretty good pre-cursor (although not all the Oscar submissions were eligible). Add to that its WWII plotline and its comforting amount (40%) of English dialogue, and the film looks like a good bet. Having said that, US reviews for "War" have been decidely mixed. I've predicted that Chinese "spectacle" would impress the Oscar committee before ("Curse of the Golden Flower", "Aftershock") but have been wrong every time. I still think "Flowers" has a good shot, but it could come in tenth place due to....

ISRAEL. The Israelis have done exceptionally well in recent years with an impressive three back-to-back nominations from 2008-2010. "Footnote", is the story of a bitter father-son rivalry in the world of Jewish Talmudic religious studies. It won Best Screenplay at Cannes, and has been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics. "Footnote" really does not sound like an exciting film, but reviews have been fairly strong overall. Howeverm, the film definitely has detractors who point out that the extremely esoteric subject matter will make the film a hard sell to many viewers. I think Israel may well be the "bubble" film fighting for 9th or 10th place.

No director from HONG KONG has ever been nominated in this category. Both of Hong Kong's Foreign Oscar nominations were films made by Mainland Chinese directors (Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige) working in Mainland China. Starring two of Hong Kong's most well-regarded actors, "A Simple Life" is the story of the lifelong relationship between a man (Andy Lau) and his aging "a-mah" (nanny; Deannie Yip). Despite winning Best Actress in Venice, this "small" film has not been talked about very much, but I think it has an excellent chance to appeal to the larger Oscar committee. Reviews have been overwhelmingly positive (although not universally excellent) and this is the sort of sentimental film that Oscar usually goes for. Good luck to Hong Kong.

1. IRAN- "Nader & Simin: A Separation"

For all the strategizing and campaigning, the best way to get nominated for an Oscar is still to make a great film that everybody recognizes is a great film. Asghar Farhadi has done that with "A Separation".

I won't gush about the film because so many people have said it all already. The film is a mystery, a thriller, a family drama, a love story gone wrong and, perhaps most importantly, a window into modern Iranian life. Just go and see "A Separation", and let's hope it gets nominated for Best Screenplay as well. I don't believe a film can ever be a lock for the win (maybe "Crouching Tiger", which charmed the US in a very weak year for foreign films), but if the large committee ignores it (and they've ignored great films before), the elite committee will be sure to save it. It's on the Shortlist.

On a sidenote, it will be interesting to see if the Iranians try to withdraw "A Separation" if Israel is nominated alongside it...I know they have rules in the Olympics about not competing directly against Israel. Anyway, it won't matter because AMPAS will surely refuse to withdraw the film (CHINA tried unsuccessfully to withdraw "Ju Dou" two decades ago) and "Separation" will likely win.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 31

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: None that I'm aware of....

Number of countries opting out: 15, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and Palestine. The others have only ever submitted once or twice in Oscar history (Bhutan, Cambodia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan) or haven't submitted in over two decades (Kuwait and Pakistan).

The most surprising absentee from Asia is clearly BANGLADESH, which has sent films for six years in a row, and which had two major releases this year ("Runway" and "Guerilla") that could have represented the country with honor. Not sure why they skipped....I also expected that either IRAQ would send "Qarantina" or JORDAN would send "Fish Above Sea Level". I had also hoped that CAMBODIA ("Lost Loves") and PAKISTAN ("Bol") would return after long absences, but apparently there's nobody there interested in forming a committee and filling out the paperwork. Expect the Palestinians to be back in contention next year with "Habibie".

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Four strong films and three outside dark horses.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 15 in 16 films- Arabic, Cantonese, Farsi, Filipino, Hebrew, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Malayalam, Mandarin, Russian, Seediq, Thai, Turkish, Vietnamese. Interestingly, Japanese is the most-represented language (Japan, Singapore and half of Taiwan's film). China's film is roughly 45% in English.

Highest profile film: It's a toss-up between Zhang Yimou's "Flowers of War", starring Christian Bale (China) and "Nader & Simin: A Separation" (Iran), which has been receiving accolades worldwide, including the Golden Bear in Berlin.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Iran.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Kazakhstan's 3D action movie, "Returning to the A"

Number of Comedies: Two. Lebanon and the Philippines

Number of Animated Films: One, from Singapore.

Number of Documentaries or Horror Films: None, although Taiwan's features a whole lot of realistic beheading.

Oscar History: Two Oscar nominees are in the mix- China's Zhang Yimou has been nominated for an Oscar three times ("Hero" and "Ju Dou", representing China and "Raise the Red Lantern", representing Hong Kong), plus four other times in which he was chosen to rep China.....And Israel's Joseph Cedar, who is representing Israel for the fourth time, including one nomination for "Beaufort".

Six other directors have represented their countries in the Oscar race before- Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey, "Distant" and the shortlisted "Three Monkeys"), Asghar Farhadi (Iran, "About Elly"), Ann Hui (Hong Kong, "Ordinary Heroes", "Summer Snow"), Eric Khoo (Singapore, "My Magic, the disqualified "Be With Me") Nadine Labaki (Lebanon, "Caramel") and Wei Te-Sheng (Taiwan, "Cape No. 7)

Japan and Taiwan are the only countries to have won a Foreign Oscar award. China, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Kazakhstan and Vietnam have all been nominated (though the HK nominees were for Mainland China productions), and Turkey has made the 9-film shortlist once before. The other seven, including Korea and the Philippines which have sent films for decades, have had no luck so far.

Number of Female Directors: Two- Hong Kong's Ann Hui and Lebanon's Nadine Labaki.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Japan's Kaneto Shindo will celebrate his 100th birthday in April, likely making him the oldest director EVER in this competition (Portugal's Manoel de Oliveira and his "Belle Toujours" were selected when he was a mere 98). He says "Postcard" will be his last film. There are no really young Asian directors in the mix....Youngest is South Korea's Jang Hun, who is 36.

Familiar Faces: Oscar-winning actor Christian Bale, who plays the lead role in China's "Flowers of War", is obviously the biggest name in the competition, with Hong Kong superstar Andy Lau ("A Simple Life") a distant second. "Flowers" co-stars Paul Schneider (Parks & Recreation), while "Simple Life" features cameos by Sammo Hung and Anthony Wong.

The cast of Japan's "Postcard" may not be well-known, but its five leading cast members have accumulated 33 Japanese Oscar nominations for acting.

Lior Ashkenazi (Israel), Sorapong Chatree (Thailand), Eugene Domingo (Philippines), Vivian Hsu (Taiwan), Nadine Labaki (Lebanon), Shin Ha-kyun (Korea) and Deannie Yip (Hong Kong) are fairly well-known in their respective countries.

Tough Choices: "The Outrage" from Thailand apparently was close to being chosen, but the Thais didn't want to choose a remake (of Oscar winner "Rashomon") over an original film.

Other films that appear to have just missed the cut included "Restoration" (Israel), "Dhobi Ghat: Mumbai Diaries" (India), "The Yellow Sea" (South Korea), which were all officially shortlisted. Also, "Let the Bullets Fly" (China), "1911" (Hong Kong) and "Norwegian Wood" (Japan).

Controversies and Changes: Some grumbled that "Flowers of War" was nearly 50% in English, making it a questionable pick for "Best Foreign Language Film", but most people seem satisfied since it is mostly in Chinese.

There potentially could have been a controversy from Iran..."Nader & Simin: A Separation" was originally announced by Iranian news agencies as the country's Oscar nominee, but these stories were deleted from the web a few days later and a "shortlist" of films was announced, leading some to believe that the controversial film by a director who has criticized the government was going to be replaced by a less politically sensitive choice. In the end, the Iranians selected "A Separation" anyway and the country will likely benefit by grabbing their first Oscar!

Number of countries I predicted correctly: 5- Indonesia, Iran, Lebanon, Singapore and Taiwan. I predicted the films from India, Israel, Korea, Turkey and Vietnam as alternates. China and Hong Kong didn't exactly play fair, since they chose films that opened in late 2011, but which had one-week qualifying runs specifically to compete for an Oscar....

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the brilliant "Nader & Simin: A Separation" (Iran; A), but I'm dying to see "The Woman in the Septic Tank" (Philippines) based on the hilarious trailer.

Last year's race: I saw 13 of last year's 17 Asian nominees....Japan's brilliant "Confessions" was without a doubt the best, while Thailand's Cannes-winning mess "Uncle Boonmee" was the worst one I saw....I'll see a fourteenth- Turkey's "Bal"- soon.

NEXT UP: The 16 films from the Rest of the World, namely The Americas, Africa and Oceania.

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Eastern Europe (16 Films)

2011-12-23T03:00:00.000-08:00

After two weeks travelling abroad, here are my predictions for the films from Eastern Europe.

The Eastern Europeans have recently had a very poor record in this category. Since their last win in 2001 (Bosnia's "No Man's Land"), they have received only three nominations in the following nine years (for "Katyn", "12" and "Zelary") and their prospects aren't much better this year, although Poland should manage to squeak onto the final list.

Perhaps of interest- three of the films are in Black and White....

ELIMINATED EARLY
16. SLOVENIA- “Circus Fantasticus”

Even if were not for the error of a Slovenian secretary (He or she was apparently a new employee and forgot to send the film to AMPAS headquarters in Los Angeles after the Slovenians selected the film”), “Circus Fantasticus” (aka “Silent Sonata”) would not have been nominated for an Oscar. The film is an abstract drama with no dialogue, about a travelling circus that appears out of nowhere in an unnamed wartorn country, and seeks shelter with a local Balkan family whose mother has just been killed in a battle. It’s likeable enough as an anti-war film, but out of its league here. Still, I wonder if that secretary still has his/her job!

NO CHANCE IN HELL:

15. ALBANIA- "Amnesty"
14. ESTONIA- "Letters to Angel"
13. MACEDONIA- "Punk's Not Dead"
12. CROATIA- "72 Days"

These four low-profile films have won few major awards and have not received the kindest reviews....ALBANIA's "Amnesty" was not even the country's first choice for the Albanian Oscar nod (See Controversies), and this film about a man and woman who connect sexually while visiting their respective spouses in jail is said to be fairly slow, uninvolving and inconsequential. ESTONIA's "Letters to Angel" is about an Estonian convert to Islam who returns to his country to search for his daughters, years after deserting during the Soviet war. This surreal, dream-like film apparently has no linear plot line that makes sense, and the film has not played at a single major Film Festival. The former Yugoslav republics of CROATIA and MACEDONIA have both sent mean-spirited black comedies about life in the post-war era. CROATIA's "72 Days" is about a family of Croatian Serbs who scheme to continue getting pension checks despite their elderly family member's death. Sounds really good, but reviews have been decidedly mixed. The Macedonians were the surprise winners of Karlovy Vary with "Punk's Not Dead", about a racist, foul-mouthed, over-the-hill Macedonian punk band who reunite for one last gig in a (gasp!) ethnic Albanian region of the country. It's supposed to be earthy and entertaining, but with low production values and few Oscar attributes. None of these films will have any shot at the Oscar.

OUT OF THEIR LEAGUE:

11. SERBIA- "Montevideo, God Bless You!"
10. LITHUANIA- "Back to Your Arms"
9. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Alois Nebel"
8. ROMANIA- "Morgen"

The CZECH REPUBLIC is usually a major contender in this category, but they dashed their chances by dumping a series of well-regarded films for a strange B&W cartoon called "Alois Nebel", based on a series of graphic novels. "Alois Nebel" is about a train dispatcher in Communist Czechoslovakia who witnessed severe abuses during WWII. I know the Czechs are very proud of their tradition of animation, but this uncomfortable film may be too unpleasant to watch AND depend too much on national history, while also turning off those who feel animated films don't belong here. The film is also lobbying for a Best Animated Film Oscar nod.

ROMANIA and SERBIA haven't been nominated but they're rumored to have come very close....This year, however, I don't fancy their chances. SERBIA' feel-good patriotic comedy, "Montevideo, God Bless You!" about the 1930 World Cup was a box-office smash in its home country, but reviews overseas haven't been as kind....ROMANIA's "Morgen", a topical drama about a rural couple who decide to help an illegal Turkish immigrant escape to Europe, has a better shot, but Romania has failed to be nominated for much bigger and much more acclaimed films....I think "Morgen" will be far too quiet to qualify.

These three regional powers are joined in this tier by the LITHUANIAns, who have opted for the winner of their 2011 National Film Awards (the Silver Cranes), "Back to Your Arms". There's very little information about this film online except that it's based on a true story which concerns a father and daughter separated in World War II and divided by the Iron Curtain, who then attempt to meet up in 1961 Berlin. The film has not "popped" and should be considered a long shot despite its weighty subject matter.

SMALL CHANCE:

7. HUNGARY- "The Turin Horse"
6. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Belvedere"
5. SLOVAKIA- "Gypsy"
4. GEORGIA- "Chantrapas"

Underdogs Bosnia, Georgia and Slovakia have all selected well-received films that are probably going to get overlooked this year. From the Balkans comes "Belvedere" from BOSNIA, a sad film about women who continue to look for information on male relatives (sons, brothers, husbands) who were killed in the Srebenica massacre, years after the conflict. From the Caucasus comes "Chantrapas" (Russian for "good-for-nothing"), a breezy French-language film about a Georgian filmmaker's efforts to deal with political and commercial pressures in his career, ranging from Soviet-era censorship in his native Georgia, to capitalist pressure for box-office success in his adopted France. From the Tatras of Eastern Slovakia comes "Gypsy", a Romany-language drama representing SLOVAKIA. The film is a gypsy take on "Hamlet", combining a teen's coming-of-age story with an inside look at Roma culture, political prejudices, violence, morality and fatherly ghosts.

Reviews for Bosnia's heart-wrenching film note that it is a difficult one to watch...I've seen the Slovak film and it's a very good one, though not a likely nominee.....Georgia's ode to filmmaking is likely to appeal to the Oscar committee, though nobody seems to say it's the best film of the year.

As for HUNGARY and their lumbering "Turin Horse", I think that it would place dead last if the regular committee was voting. Two and a half hours of excrutiatingly slow B&W footage of peasant misery (I've heard twenty minutes is spent on boiling potatoes), this is not a mainstream film, and this does not have mainstream appeal. I'm putting it at #7 on the off chance that the Elite Committee likes it....but I doubt it.

DARK HORSES:

3. BULGARIA- "Tilt"
2. RUSSIA- "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel"

Both of these films would represent a major surprise if they were shortlisted, but for very different reasons. RUSSIA's "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel" (which, confusingly, is actually the third film in the "Burnt by the Sun" series) was a critical and financial failure in its native Russia, but I think it was not such a foolish choice. Nikita Mikhalkov has never failed to make the shortlist before, and the big-budget war drama is technically impressive, which will appeal to some of the technical members of the committee. Many committee voters will probably fondly remember the first film, which won in 1995 (though they may struggle to fill in the gaps by missing the second film, "Burnt by the Sun 2: Exodus") and the World War II theme is always a Foreign Film favorite. In the end, I think "Burnt" will fail to make the cut, but it's not an automatic out, despite its critical drubbing.

As for BULGARIA, "Tilt" is a very different animal....A relatively obscure, somewhat low-budget teen feature set against the backdrop of the fall of Communism in the early 1990s, "Tilt" is often compared to the Shakespearean Romeo & Juliet. The film has quietly been making a name for itself and most people really do seem to like the film. I don't really think "Tilt" will make the shortlist, but I have a feeling it will place fairly well in the rankings.

GOOD SHOT:

1. POLAND- "In Darkness"

Realistically speaking, POLAND is probably the only Eastern European country that can expect to be on January's 9-film shortlist. Agnieszka Holland has a strong record with Oscar and the film practically shouts Oscar nominee with its plot featuring 1- World War II, 2- Jewish characters and 3- cute children in peril. "In Darkness" is a dark, heavy drama about a self-interested Catholic rogue who ends up helping Jews who are trying to escape Nazi deportations by hiding in the sewers of Lviv (now in Ukraine, but then part of Poland). Lots of moral dilemmas, conflicted characters and well-crafted cinematography will probably push this film to the next round.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: Slovenia, which forgot to actually send their official submission to Los Angeles.

Number of countries opting out: 5- ARMENIA, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Latvia and Ukraine...UKRAINE actually convened an Oscar selection committee, but determined that no film met all of the AMPAS requirements (not sure why Cannes feature “You My Joy” wasn’t eligible). AZERBAIJAN and LATVIA sent films last year and had some definite possibilities (especially “Through the Eyes of a Ghost”, by Rustam Ibragimbekov who co-wrote three foreign Oscar nominees, and Latvia’s baity WWII film “Three to Dance”), so not sure why they aren’t participating. Isolated BELARUS hasn’t submitted a film since 1996.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Very few. I’d say four and that’s being very generous.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 13 primary languages- Albanian, Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, French, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Macedonian, Polish, Romanian, Romany, Russian, Serbo-Croatian, with a smattering of Turkish (in the Romanian film), German, Ukrainian and Yiddish (all Poland), Georgian and Slovak. The Slovenian film has no dialogue.

Highest profile film: Probably Russia’s highly touted flop “Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel”, which is famous for its lack of success and for being the second sequel to the 1995 Oscar winner. Hungary’s “Turin Horse” and Poland’s “In Darkness” are most famous based on their actual reviews, while Estonia's film has virtually no information online whatsoever.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Poland.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Albania, which was forced to send its second-place film.

Number of Comedies: Three from the former Yugoslavia- Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia.

Number of Animated Films: One, from the Czech Republic.

Number of Documentaries or Horror Films: None.

Oscar History: Two Oscar nominees are in the mix- Poland’s Agnieszka Holland has been nominated twice- once for Best Foreign Film (representing West Germany) for “Angry Harvest” at the 1986 Oscars and once for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 1992 Oscars for “Europa Europa”. Nikita Mikhalkov was nominated for three Foreign Language Film Oscars in 1993, 1995 and 2008, winning on his second try for “Burnt by the Sun”.

Martin Sulik is representing his country for the sixth time after Oscar runs in 1993, 1995, 1997 2000 and 2005. Disqualified entrant Janez Burger from Slovenia previously represented his country in 2005 for “The Ruins”.

Four countries have won the Oscar nominations for their countries (Bosnia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia) while three others have been nominated (Georgia, Macedonia and Poland) and two others (Bulgaria and Serbia) have been short-listed. Croatia, Serbia and Slovakia have never been nominated since becoming independent, but their films have been nominated as part of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Albania, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia and, surprisingly, Romania have had no luck yet with Oscar.

Number of Female Directors: Only one...Poland’s Agnieszka Holland.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: France-based Georgian director Otar Iosseliani is 77, while Romania’s Marian Crisan is 35.

Familiar Faces: Very few that would be familiar to Western audiences...Dedicated film viewers are most likely to recognize actor Rade Šerbedžija (Mission Impossible 2, Batman Begins) who stars in his son’s “72 Days”, although there’s also German actor Benno Fürmann in “In Darkness” plus director Nikita Mikhalkov who co-stars in his own “Burnt by the 2”.

Tough Choices: I thought the 2012 winner for Best Foreign Language Film would be the Czech Republic’s critically acclaimed drama “Lidice”, but the Czechs prevented that from happening when they selected peculiar adult cartoon “Alois Nebel” instead...Also eliminated in the preliminaries: “Identity Card” from Czech Republic, “The House” from Slovakia (Berlin), “Medal of Honor” from Romania and “Elena” from Russia.

Controversies and Changes: Eastern Europe provided the two biggest controversies of the year.

ALBANIA initially selected “The Forgiveness of Blood”, a film in Albanian, shot in Albania with an American director (Joshua Marston), and a mixed American and Albanian crew. It was no surprise that AMPAS disqualified “Blood”; they did the same thing to Marston’s similarly filmed “Maria, Full of Grace”, which Colombia selected in 2004. AMPAS is pretty resolute that “Best Foreign Language Film” means the film must be both “Foreign” (i.e., not American) and in a “Foreign Language” (i.e., not in English). I think it’s fair to exclude English-language films (subtitled movies are definitely a different animal than British, Canadian and Australian films in English...I would hate to see this category dominated by “King’s Speech”, “Moulin Rouge” and “Lord of the Rings”, even if they are good films!) but any foreign-language film should be eligible, even if the director does happen to have a US passport. In fact, a number of international directors are American citizens, Green Card holders, or otherwise based in the U.S., so this is really unfair. The worst part is that it was rival director Buraj Alimani who reportedly complained to the Academy that "Blood" should be barred from the category. Alimani is a sore loser who wanted his own film to be selected (his “Amnesty” was the runner-up and is now representing Albania), at the expense of the hard work of the Albanian actors and crew of the film that an impartial jury of Albanian filmmakers selected as the best Albanian film of the year. Marston himself said it best: ““I don't understand why the academy is in the business of adjudicating the citizenship of a film. Why can’t the submitting countries be given the authority and autonomy to decide for themselves what films best represent them? Why would it be so threatening to the process of the academy to let that happen?”

RUSSIA also caused controversy when they selected a critically lambasted flop over two more acclaimed films. The selection of "Burnt by the Sun 2: Ctadel" over "Elena" (winner, Un Certain Regard, Cannes 2001) and "Faust" (winner, Golden Lion, Venice) was rumored to be strongly influenced by director Nikita Mikhalkov's connections within the selection committee. The President of the Committee refused to sign the decision and called for Mikhalkov to withdraw his film from consideration so that a better regarded film could take the Russian spot. Others also claimed that it was ridiculous to choose a sequel that depended so much on seeing the previous film (even Oscar voters who remember the 1995 winner "Burnt by the Sun" probably won't have seen the second film in the series, 2010's "Burnt by the Sun 2: Exodus"). I actually think that the high production values of "Burnt" mean it's not such a bad choice overall, but the reasons why it was chosen seem surely politically influenced.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: 7- ALBANIA, ESTONIA, HUNGARY, LITHUANIA, MACEDONIA, SLOVAKIA and SLOVENIA, plus I picked Croatia’s film last year when I thought it was eligible. Bonus points for Albania, since I predicted they would try to send “Forgiveness of Blood” but end up sending “Amnesty”. CZECH REPUBLIC was the only country that took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the Slovak (B+) and Slovene (B-) films, but I’m most excited to see Croatian black comedy ”72 Days”.

Last year's race: I saw 8 of last year’s 17 contenders, and the best was without a doubt Georgia’s “Street Days”, followed by Albania’s “East West East”. Estonia’s “St. Tony” was one of the worst films I saw last year, while Bulgaria and Poland weren’t much better.

Next up (after the holidays): the 16 films from Asia.

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Western Europe (17 Films)

2011-11-30T21:42:00.000-08:00

Well, here is the first batch of predictions where we look at the 17 films from Western Europe. The Western Europeans used to dominate this category, but they have lost momentum in recent years as films from Latin America and the Middle East have been grabbing a growing number of spots.

Despite the 65 films in competition, I think this will be a rather weak year, especially for Europe.

NO CHANCE-

17. GREECE- “Attenberg”
16. SWITZERLAND- “Summer Games”
15. ITALY- “Terraferma”
14. PORTUGAL- “Jose and Pilar”
13. UK- “Patagonia”

Middling reviews will doom the two Italian-language films (from Italy and Switzerland) to oblivion, the UK’s film lacks “oomph”, Portugal’s is the wrong genre, while Greece’s film is too weird and divisive (although I said last year, when they DID get nominated!).
GREECE's “Attenberg” is an experimental black comedy that involves a strange young adult girl experimenting with kissing and making animal noises. The film has all of the quirkiness of last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth” without that film’s (inexplicable) good reviews. Not everybody dislikes “Attenberg”, but a lot of people do, and this will keep this film at the bottom of the charts this year.
“Patagonia”, “Summer Games” and “Terraferma” simply don’t have good enough reviews to advance to the next round. Switzerland's “Summer Games” was the surprise winner of the Swiss Oscar competition, which takes into account votes from the public. It’s a dark drama about parents and their teenaged children on a holiday by the sea. A disturbing first hour (which I’ve heard includes the killing of an animal) apparently turns off a lot of viewers before an eventual cathartic ending, but by then it may be too late. It’s also by far the lowest-profile and most obscure film from Western Europe this year, making it likely to get lost in the shuffle. Italy's “Terraferma” is a baity film about illegal African immigrants trying to make it to Europe, and an Italian family who may or may not try to assist them. However, reviews have been surprisingly poor and no one seems to like the movie. The UK's “Patagonia”, a quirky film that features two stories about cross-cultural connections in Wales and Argentina (an old Argentinian woman returns to her ancestral village in Wales...Welsh tourists visit Argentina) has slightly better reviews, but most people prefer one story over another and though it's a good film they say it's also uneven, overlong and out of its league here.
“Jose and Pilar” (PORTUGAL), has actually gotten excellent reviews, but its subject matter- a renowned Portuguese Nobel Laureate and author- is not likely to resonate as much with an Oscar committee that is looking for high drama and strong production values (remember...a lot of voters come from the technical branches...), and they(like me...) may not be familiar with Jose Saramago and his wife. Still, it’s said to be an accomplished documentary (though it failed to make the AMPAS documentary shortlist).

UNLIKELY

12. DENMARK- “Superclasico”
11. ICELAND- “Volcano”
10. BELGIUM- “Bullhead”
9. SPAIN- “Black Bread”
All four of these films are going to have an uphill climb to an Oscar nod. Returning champion Denmark shocked Oscar prognosticators by choosing a fluffy comedy about a schlub and his teenaged son going to visit his ex-wife in Buenos Aires (who has run off with a hot, young football player). It’s all supposed to be very entertaining, but not much more than that. It’s hoping for an “Everybody Famous”/”Simple Simon” slot on the shortlist.
The other three films are anything but comedies...I’ve seen “Bullhead” (which has the best reviews of the four) but I found this violent noirish and occasionally confusing thriller about provincial Belgians involved with selling hormone drugs to fatten cattle to be pretty inconsequential, although there are clearly many who disagree with me. In the end, I kind of felt like “so what?” Iceland’s “Volcano” seems too downbeat and minimalist to succeed here. It’s the story of an elderly retiree, estranged from his children, whose life is turned upside down when his wife falls ill. This Cannes drama is perhaps best-known for its elderly actors in sex scenes, but I don't see that as helping the film much!
As for “Black Bread” from Oscar powerhouse Spain, the film is said to be an exceptionally accomplished film, but also very confusing to those of us who are not familiar with the post-Civil War era in Spain. The film is a murder mystery/war drama/children’s story/morality tale about a child from the losing side of the Civil War whose father is accused of murder after his son finds a corpse. Oscar loves kids, loves Spain and loves war, but I fear “Bread” may miss out due to context.

DARK HORSES

8. IRELAND- “As If I Was Not There”
7. SWEDEN- “Beyond”
6. GERMANY- “Pina”
5. NORWAY- “Happy, Happy”
All of these films have a chance at grabbing at one of the lower rungs of the nine-film shortlist, but in the end I think that all of them will miss out.
Ireland’s “As If I Was Not There”, is a wrenching film set in Bosnia, about a Bosniak lady teacher who is rounded up and sexually assaulted by Serbian troops during the Yugoslav wars. Everyone says it’s a powerful piece of work, but its quiet realism may not be able to break through the pack. Also, ever since “No Man’s Land” won the Oscar ten years ago, the Oscars have never shown any interest in the conflicts in the Balkans.
Scandinavia’s “Beyond” and “Happy Happy” have been touted as strong possibilities for the shortlist, but reviews have not been universally strong. “Beyond” looks great on paper as up-and-coming star Noomi Rapace stars as a Swedish wife who reluctantly returns to her visit her dysfunctional and abusive family when her mother falls ill. Its the sort of family drama that Sweden used to be nominated for on a regular basis, but reviews for this female-driven film vary from very good to tepid. It may have better luck at the Globes. “Happy Happy”, a romantic comedy about the relationships of two married couples living next door to each other in rural northern Norway, is a fun film with good performances, but it’s also quite slight (and the a cappella singers got on my nerves...). Still, reviews have been stronger than expected (winning Sundance) and the film has the potential (certainly more than Denmark) to get a “Simple Simon”/”Everybody Famous” sort of nod.

As for Germany’s dance tribute “Pina”, it clearly has the strongest reviews of the four films here, but I think its weird genre-defying format (it’s a documentary! No, it’s a dance concert! No, it’s a 3D movie!) will annoy (bore?) too many in the large committee who feel the film doesn’t belong in this category, and will also fail to be rescued by the elite committee who will prefer to select films with a fiction narrative (but I could be wrong...the elite committee is still an enigma).

VERY POSSIBLE

4. AUSTRIA- “Breathing”
3. NETHERLANDS- “Sonny Boy”
Austria has chosen a quiet, introspective film (“Breathing”) about a young man serving time in a juvenile detention facility, who finds success at a part-time job working as a mortician’s assistant while dealing with feelings of guilt and loneliness. Although it may be too minimalist and/or cerebral for the Academy, it has gotten very positive reviews and won a minor award at Cannes. The film from the Netherlands, “Sonny Boy”, has not gotten very positive reviews at all. In fact, many critics dislike this film about the taboo relationship between an older, married Dutch woman with a young, black Surinamese in the 1940s, who end up having a baby (Sonny Boy). It ranks 15th of the 17 Western European films on IMDB (it just barely finished ahead of the UK, and way ahead of bottom-ranked Greece) and could not even manage a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Golden Calf Awards in Holland. So, why rank it in third place? The film is total Oscar bait, and the Netherlands knows it. The movie is said to be extremely emotionally involving and exactly the sort of tearjerker that the Oscar committee traditionally goes for. That said, the Oscar committee has been bolder and less traditional in recent years, so pushing their “like” buttons may not be enough anymore. However, like the critically maligned film from Russia, “Sonny Boy” definitely is in with a shot.

FAVORITES

2. FINLAND- “Le Havre”
1. FRANCE- “Declaration of War”

Italy has won more Oscars than France (13-12), but French-language films have the edge over Italian-language films (15-12). Chalk it up to the beauty of the French language (or be cynical and say it’s because French is spoken is many more countries) but I think the two Western European films that will be on the Oscar shortlist are the two movies in the French language.
Finland’s “Le Havre” would not have been eligible to represent Finland a few years ago, but a rule change means it is perfectly acceptable for them to send a film filmed in French and set in France. Aki Kaurismaki’s simple comedy of an old man taking in an illegal African immigrant is said to be one of his more accessible (will I like it? I doubt it, but I’ll try to see it in December when it comes out here in Washington DC) and the “old person teaches and learns from young person” is known to be a fetish plot for Oscar voters. It has a good chance of being recognized by either committee, so it doubles its chances.
France’s “Declaration of War” is even more baity. This semi-autobiographical story of a young couple trying to survive an emotional roller-coaster when their infant child is diagnosed with a deadly form of cancer is said to be well-made and well-acted, with a great deal of heart, gentle humor and a heart-tugging plot line. There are no bad reviews out there, and although it has not won any big awards, this has never been an impediment to Oscar, which doesn’t mind ignoring Cannes/Berlin/Venice winners for something more commercial. France was somewhat at a loss as to what to choose this year, but this semi-commercial feature (not made for film festivals) seems to have been a good choice. I think it’s in...

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 19

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None

Number of countries opting out: GREENLAND, which debuted last year, and LUXEMBOURG which had no eligible films in any of its three native languages.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a weak year worldwide, so I’d say about half....Maybe, seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: The world is getting more and more international with the Finnish film in French, the Irish film in Bosnian and the films from Denmark and the UK (but notably NOT Spain) filmed partially in Spanish. I count 14: Bosnian, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Swedish and Welsh- plus smatterings of Finnish (in the Swedish entry), Italian and Spanish. At least five of the films are multi-lingual (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, the UK and possibly also Germany).

Spain sent its first-ever Catalan film and Switzerland sent its first-ever film from the Italian community.

Highest profile film: Probably FINLAND’s breezy dramedy “Le Havre” by obnoxious auteur Aki Kaurismaki, although GERMANY’s 3D dancing documentary “Pina” by Wim Wenders has also gotten a lot of buzz.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: France, comme d'habitude.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: GREECE’s uncomfortable black comedy (?) “Attenberg”, whose reviews have been even more divisive than last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth”

Number of Comedies: Laugh-out-loud comedies from DENMARK and NORWAY plus FINLAND’s dramedy.

Number of Animated or Horror Films: None.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. PORTUGAL chose a real documentary (“Jose & Pilar”), while GERMANY’s “Pina” sort of defies description but has generally been competing as a doc (it is also shortlisted for the Oscar documentary award).

Oscar History: Aki Kaurismaki is the only director to have received a nomination in the Best Foreign Language Film category, which he got for the over-rated “Man Without A Past” in 2003. However, an impressive three other directors have been nominated in other categories: Germany’s Wim Wenders (Best Documentary, Buena Vista Social Club, 2000), Iceland’s Runar Runarsson (Best Live Action Short, The Last Farm, 2006) and Ireland’s Juanita Wilson (Best Live Action Short, The Door, 2010).

Italy’s Emanuele Crialese (“Nuovomundo”) and Netherlands’ Maria Peters (“Little Crumb”) have both been selected by for the Oscar race once before, as has Spain’s Agusti Villaronga who co-directed Mexico’s 2003 submisson “Aro Tolbukhin”.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while six others have been nominated. Only Ireland (which has only entered the competition once before) and Portugal (which holds the record for never winning) have never been nominated.

Number of Female Directors: Six! Pernilla August (Sweden), Valerie Donzelli (France), Maria Peters (Netherlands), Anne Sewitsky (Norway), Athina Rachel Tsangari (Greece) and Juanita Wilson (Ireland). Possibly a record! August is the first woman ever to represent Sweden.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 66-year old Wim Wenders (Germany) is the senior statesman of the group, while 33-year old Miguel Goncalves Mendes (Portugal) is the youngest.

Familiar Faces: The most obvious answer is Swedish “it” girl Noomi Rapace (“The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” who trades her tattoos and spiked hair for a more conservative look in Sweden’s “Beyond”, although American audiences will also be very familiar with "Patagonia"'s Matthew Rhys who just finished up a five-year run on “Brothers and Sisters". You’re also likely to recognize Sergi Lopez (“Pan’s Labyrinth”) in “Black Bread”, Kati Outinen a.k.a. Aki Kaurismaki’s muse in “Le Havre”, Swedish actor Stellan Starsgard who plays a doctor in the Bosnian-language Irish entry “As If I Was Not There” and Paprika Steen who plays the wife in “Superclasico”. And for those of you who watch the Oscar submission list year after year, Icelandic actors Throstur Leo Gunnarsson and Theodor Juliusson are both starring in their seventh Icelandic Oscar submission.

Tough Choices: Spain had the toughest choice this year, forced to choose between their well-reviewed 2010 Goya winner “Black Bread”, brand-new “The Sleeping Voice” and the latest quirky entry from Pedro Almodovar, “The Skin I Live In”. Almodovar’s plastic surgery horror film probably would have scared off elderly Oscar voters, so I think Spain chose well even if most bloggers disagree. Belgium, Denmark and Portugal have also suffered online criticism for choosing unlikely dark horses (violent, disturbing “Bullhead”, fluffy romantic comedy “Superclasico” and documentary “Jose and Pilar”) over three of the early favorites (“The Kid With A Bike”, one of the the Brothers Dardennes’ more accessible films, baity Danish family drama “A Family” and “Mysteries of Lisbon”, a sumptuous four-hour soap opera). I can confirm that all three of these were stupid moves. Also snubbed: Austria’s child abuse drama “Michael”, France’s period drama “The Princess of Montpensier” (why did nobody bring this up?), Germany’s “The Poll Diaries” (it was shortlisted), Iceland’s 2010 Edda winner “Undercurrent”, Italy’s papal comedy “We Have A Pope” and Norway’s acclaimed “Oslo, August 31st”.

Controversies and Changes: No big controversies, although one of the members of Denmark’s Oscar selection committee (actor Thomas Magnussen) was accused of vote selling when he contacted two of the three shortlisted directors with a CV indicating he was on the Oscar committee. The Danish Film Institute promised to investigate. Finland’s Aki Kaurismaki ended his ridiculous Oscar boycott, though that was not particularly controversial.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only three- ICELAND, IRELAND and SPAIN. I came super-close with AUSTRIA, where I predicted an upset, and BELGIUM (had “Bullhead” in second place behind “The Kid With a Bike”) and would probably have gotten FINLAND, if I hadn’t thought Kaurismaki would continue his pointless Oscar boycott. I’ll admit the documentaries from GERMANY and PORTUGAL, as well as DENMARK’s “Superclasico” took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the one I was really looking forward to seeing (Norway’s “Happy Happy”; B+) plus Belgium’s “so what?” thriller “Bullhead (C), so I guess now my top choices would be Denmark’s silly-but-fun comedy “Superclasico” and Britain’s Welsh drama “Patagonia”.

Last year's race: I’m proud to say I saw 13 of the 16 films submitted last year, missing only Austria (which will be released on DVD in the US next year), Norway and Switzerland. The best were from the films from the Netherlands and Spain, and the worst was the inept film from Portugal.

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe

Recap: My Views on Last Year's Foreign Oscar Race

2011-11-13T22:02:00.001-08:00

Now that we have the official 2012 list, let’s take a look back at last year…..One of the problems with following this category is that most of us don’t get a chance to see the films until a year or so later! This year, I saw 45 of the 66 eligible films. I think the Academy picked mostly good films to be nominated, but they ignored the best ones (as usual). So here’s my chance to let the world know my opinions before we all start predicting next year’s race...

It’s difficult to do a ranking like this…..Of course, the great movies go to the top and the bad movies go to the bottom...But what about well-made films that I didn’t like (France’s “Of Gods and Men”)? Should they go higher or lower than mediocre films that were fun to watch (Korea’s “Barefoot Dream”)?

The American Academy chose nine films for their shortlist….I should note that I’ve only seen eight of these...I never got around to seeing Mexico’s grueling “Biutiful” (the DVD is sitting in my house) or Bosnia's "Cirkus Columbia", by Oscar winner Denis Tanovic, so I may have missed a deserving film.

MY OSCAR WINNER: JAPAN, “Confessions”- Hell hath no fury like a Japanese woman scorned...Revenge thriller “Confessions” surprised a lot of people by making the 9-film shortlist, and it amazes me that an entire committee of people could see this intricate, tightly-plotted masterpiece and toss it aside for the likes of a well-made but forgettable film like “Outside the Law”...”Confessions” centers on a Junior High School teacher’s revenge plot against the two students whom she holds responsible for the death of her young daughter. Admittedly, it’s not an easy film to watch. However, my Japanese friends and I barely breathed during the two-hour running time...Tetsuya Nakashima (director of my favorite Japanese film, “Memories of Matsuko”) keeps the twists and turns coming and just when you think you understand everything, you find out how little you actually do. I’d like to say more, but anything else would ruin the plot. This film won Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Japanese Oscars and really should have been honored by the American Academy. (Available on English-subtitled DVD in Hong Kong, and via Ebay, Yesasia and other sites) Grade: A

MY RUNNER-UP: PERU, “Contracorriente” (Undertow)- A married man with a loving wife and a brand-new baby in a coastal community in macho Peru is having a secret homosexual affair with a handsome artist from the capital. This alone would be an intriguing plot for a film but Contracorriente defies your expectations by going for a sad ghost story rather than a soapy melodrama. The writers skillfully maintain maximum conflict and suspense without casting anyone as the villain. You sympathize with all three characters in the love-triangle, understanding that there can be no happy ending for everyone but wondering if there can be one for anyone. That said, there’s plenty of humor and whimsy and a satisfying conclusion. I loved the movie when I saw it, but I loved it even more the next day, since I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Peru is two-for-two with quality gay dramas…Also see 1998’s “Don’t Tell Anyone”. (Available on Netflix) Grade: A-

MY OTHER NOMINEES: (3rd Place) GEORGIA, “Street Days”- Georgia’s Street Days proves that you can make a great film with no money, as long as you have strong actors and a strong script. Checkie is a kind-hearted but aimless middle-aged junkie living in post-Communist Georgia. His long-suffering ex-wife barely has enough money to pay for schoolbooks for their son. While Checkie has failed in life, several of his school classmates have done exceedingly well, which leads him into a tragic moral dilemma. A group of corrupt cops blackmail him to either set up a wealthy ex-classmate’s teenage son with drugs (whereupon they’ll blackmail his rich father), or go to jail. A fascinating character study that deserves a wider release. Grade: A-

(4th Place) TAIWAN, “Monga”- I became a gangster because of a chicken leg. This doesn’t sound like an auspicious beginning for a movie. I hate gangster movies, and when I heard that this film wasn’t even Taiwan’s first choice for the Oscars (Hear Me was selected but it turned out that film had fibbed about its premiere date) I almost didn’t even bother seeing Monga. That would have been a mistake because this is a visually inventive, bloody, sad, roller-coaster ride of a movie. Despite a clichéd plot (four teens form a gang in 1970s Taipei), the film deals with friendships, gang alliances and revenge killings in a fresh and original way. I loved the film and-- wow- what an ending! (Available on DVD with English subtitles in Hong Kong including Yesasia.com) Grade: A-

(5th Place) NETHERLANDS, “Tirza”- Yet another surprise, and an example of the reason why I try to see the whole list every year, even if I don’t find the films very intriguing...I didn’t really want to see this film, but I decided to catch it the local EU Film Festival a week ago. This is basically a mystery about a middle-aged Dutch professor in the midst of a midlife crisis, who travels to Namibia to find his missing daughter who disappeared (or did she?) while travelling with an Arab boyfriend. Namibia is an exotic, beautiful and original filming location. The film is very weird and sometimes uncomfortable to watch due to sexual and violent overtones, but it’s a captivating watch, and the solution is there for the viewer to see. (Available on DVD on Region 2 DVD) Grade: A-

MY SHORTLIST-
6. HONG KONG, “Echoes of the Rainbow”- A intimate family drama set amidst a lower-middle class family in 1960s Hong Kong. The Law family have two sons; 16-year old Desmond is an handsome, overachieving track star, while “Big Ears” is a troublemaking 7-year old. While it doesn’t sound particular exciting, this slice-of-life drama does an excellent job at getting you involved in the life of this family, and the sad reality that tragedy is part of life. The mostly unheralded film treads a dangerous line, but always manages to stay (just barely!) on the right side of sentimental without crossing the line into schmaltz. For those of us who have been to Hong Kong, it’s also a reminder of how much this enclave has changed within one generation. Cinematic highlight: the typhoon. (Available on DVD with English subtitles in Hong Kong, including Yesasia.com) Grade: A-

7. CANADA, “Incendies”- I think my expectations were too high for Canada’s beautiful and brutal mystery...“Incendies” is about two Canadian twins discovering their late mother’s secret past life during the Lebanese civil war (though Lebanon itself is never mentioned). The film got some of the best reviews of the year, and it’s certainly a great film (miles better than its Oscar competition “Outside the Law” and “Dogtooth”). However, I figured out the mystery fairly early on, and I made the mistake of seeing it with a girl who had seen the play and told me about all the twists and turns that were more effectively plotted on stage. Highly recommended, but it just missed my cut...(Available on Netflix) Grade: A-

8. SPAIN, “Even the Rain”- Bolivia didn’t enter the Oscar competition this year, but Spain’s shortlisted film is an intriguing look at that country’s history, economy and politics. A Spanish film crew travels to Bolivia to make a movie about the voyage of Christopher Columbus. Why landlocked Bolivia? Because it’s the cheapest country to make a movie in. While the filmmakers attempt to make a film about the exploitation of the indigenous people by Spanish conquistadors, indigenous people are being marginalized by a real-life government deal threatening the country’s water resources….I thought the plot sounded dull, but it’s quite well done, and you learn a lot. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

9. KAZAKHSTAN, “Strayed”- Kazakhstan’s intriguing “Strayed” plays like a Russian-language version of The Twilight Zone (it’s also eerily similar to “Tirza”). A man is travelling with his wife and son along a barren highway in the middle of nowhere. Waking up from a nap, he finds his wife and son gone without a trace...He comes across a single cottage with an old man and his young wife (daughter?) living there. The mystery of the disappearances of the wife and boy provides the film’s plot, which holds up well upon a second viewing. Like “Dogtooth” and “St. Tony”, this is a divisive film. Unlike those other two, this is a good one. Pay attention to the costumes! (Available with English subtitles on Kazakhstan DVD) Grade: B+

GOOD MOVIES!
10. ISRAEL, “Human Resources Manager”- The body of a Romanian immigrant woman killed in a bus bombing goes unclaimed in a morgue for a week, leading to a scandal when news gets out that her employer, a large bakery, didn’t even notice she was missing. The eponymous HR Manager is assigned by his boss to bring the body back to her native Romania. The disinterested company employee is forced to deal with a host of tragicomic situations involving the woman’s dysfunctional family, and a cadre of Romanian drivers, officials, grannies, villagers and soldiers...Well-done road movie. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

11. ALBANIA, “East, West, East- The Final Sprint”- Yes, Albanians can do comedy! During the waning months of the isolationist Communist regime of Enver Hoxha, the Albanian Government agrees to send their unprepared national cycling team to a competition in France. Upon arriving in Italy, the Government in Tirana falls, leaving the team stranded without cash and desperate to return home by bicycle, through Italy and Yugoslavia. I really liked this movie. (Available on daaveedee.com with English subtitles) Grade: B+

12. HUNGARY , "Bibliotheque Pascal"- It's weird, original and definitely not for everyone. "Pascal"'s bizarre story of a Romanian woman trafficked to England for prostitution in a high-class brothel boasts surrealism that advances the story, unlike some other pretentious films on the list (yes, Khun Boonmee). I actually this could have been a truly great film if the film had gone the way of "Big Fish" or "Alice in Wonderland", but as it is, it's very good. I'm glad I saw it despite the many negative reviews. (Available on Netflix streaming) Grade: B+

13. DENMARK, “In A Better World”- Of course, this was the eventual Oscar winner, so I don’t need to say much about the plot, which focuses on the disturbing friendship between two bullied 12-year olds in Denmark, and their complicated relationships with their fathers. It's a morality tale done rather well, but although it’s a fine film with fine acting and writing that I would certainly recommend, I don’t think it was the best film in the race. Incidentally, neither did the Danes...It didn’t even get a Best Picture nod at their national film awards. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

14. INDIA, “Peepli (Live)”- A messy black comedy about an indebted farmer. Poor Natha is a heavily indebted farmer in fictional Mukhya Pradesh who learns that his impoverished family will receive a large compensation payment if he were to commit suicide. His family are an unsympathetic lot- a conniving brother, foul-mouthed mother, domineering wife and bratty kids. Natha doesn’t want to die, but his brother brags to the village that Natha will soon kill himself to get his family out of debt. Whether Natha will live or die soon becomes a national media circus, and India's tabloid media descends on the tiny rural town of Peepli, with bureaucrats, Mafioso, villagers and reporters debating the worth of his life. Farmer suicides are a very real issue in India...My only complaint is that the film takes its sweet time to get to where its going...Once it does the audience is laughing and then feeling guilty for laughing. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B.

15. CHILE, “The Life of Fish”- A talky relationship drama about a devastatingly handsome Chilean expat living in Germany, and the now-married woman he broke up with years before...The two meet up seemingly by chance at a party in Santiago and they may or may not still be in love (if they ever were in love in the first place...) It’s a little slow and not as good as the director’s “En la Cama” (which Chile submitted in 2003), but director Bize has a talent for real-life dialogue. A rather dull subplot about the death of a friend slows things down a few times, but the ending is a memorable one. Grade: B.

16. ICELAND, “Mamma Gogo”- A sad comedy about Alzheimer’s disease, “Mamma Gogo” is essentially an autobiographical film based on director Fridrik Thor Fridriksson’s filmmaking career, and his relationship with his mother. Kristianbjorg Kjell gives an Oscar-worthy performance as the increasingly frustrated “Gogo” whose comically confused antics slowly give way to anger and frustration about her illness. One gimmick that I didn’t get until the ending credits were that flashbacks to her (as a beautiful young woman) and her husband are actually scenes of actress Kjell from a film she made in 1962. The film is slow, but never tedious, with a great deal of heart. Grade: B

17. ALGERIA, “Hors-la-Loi”- Algeria’s Hors-la-Loi starts with a bang, with a riveting portrayal at the little-known Setif Massacre, in which French troops killed thousands of local Algerians. The film shows the different paths taken by three Algerian brothers living in France, during the decades-long run-up to Algerian independence in 1962. The film is well-made, and certainly important and educational, but it slows down as it goes along and is ultimately way too long for its own good. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

18. SOUTH KOREA, “A Barefoot Dream”- Like Algeria’s film, this is a difficult one to grade...Based on a true story, “A Barefoot Dream” is a comedy-drama about a self-absorbed Korean entrepreneur who moves to newly independent Timor-Leste to make a quick buck, and ends up trying to sell sneakers to the capital’s barefoot teens. It’s not necessarily a good film, and it starts off downright cheesy. However, Korean directors are masters of emotional manipulation, pressing all the right buttons as if to scream at the audience “LIKE ME!” By the end, you’re supporting the ragtag East Timorese team just like you are supposed to...(Available on Yesasia) Grade: B.

19. VENEZUELA, “Hermano”- A woman and her two teenage sons live in the slums of Caracas. Both sons are soccer stars in the neighborhood- the elder one is an enforcer with a local gang, while the younger one is much more innocent. Life changes forever for the brothers with the occurrence of a brutal accidental murder in the neighborhood. This film challenges your views on personal ambition, brotherhood and revenge and is another great example of a film that proves you don’t need a big budget to make a good movie. I was slightly less moved than my friends who saw this film with me, but it was still very good. B.

20. SOUTH AFRICA- Strongly reminiscent of South Africa's previous Oscar nominee "Yesterday", this film is probably the first internationally seen film in the Sepedi language. Beautifully shot and well-acted by a mostly female, largely child cast, the film focuses on a 13-year old girl named Chandra who is forced to face a lifetime of adversity in a few months of her life. Her baby sister has died, her stepfather is a drunken lout, her mother is sick (probably with AIDS) and her best friend has turned to prostitution to survive. Tackling so many serious issues, this is total Oscar bait. Everything is very well done, but I simply found the film a bit obvious, and not as good as the films higher up on the list. B. (Available on Netflix)

21. GERMANY, “When We Leave”- A German-Turkish woman raised in Germany flees an abusive relationship in Turkey with her young son in tow. She returns to her family in Germany, determined to start anew. Her loving family’s welcome turns to scorn when they realize her “visit” is actually a permanent return home and that she plans to disgrace the family by divorcing. A very topical film to be sure. Well-done but flawed with a moving ending. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

22. SWEDEN, “Simple Simon”- I really can’t understand how this entertaining trifle made it to the Oscar shortlist over “Contracorriente” and “Street Days”. This comedy is the story of Simon, an 18-year old with Asperger’s Syndrome, a mental condition that makes him obsess about times, shapes and colors, and show little regard for the feelings of other people. When Simon learns that his special-needs have caused his older brother to breakup with his girlfriend, he sets out to find him a new one. It’s a fun film with a refreshing visual flair (it tries to make us see the world the way Simon does) and the ending is well-done, but it’s still a standard comedy film that doesn’t have to gravitas to be here. Although she is painted as a villain, I’m afraid I was most sympathetic to the girlfriend driven away by Simon’s maddening antics...(Available on Daaveedee with English subtitles) Grade: B

23. NICARAGUA, “La Yuma”- A teenage girl from an abusive home is trying to train as a female boxer to rise above her surroundings. This is the first film to be made in Nicaragua in twenty years. It’s not up to the technical standards of the Oscar category, but it’s well-made and engaging throughout. The director and lead actress are clearly talented, and her troubled romantic relationship with a local college student is handled very realistically. (Available on Youtube with English subtitles) Grade: B.

24. SLOVAKIA, “The Border”- A fascinating documentary about an ethnic Hungarian village that was divided overnight by Soviet authorities into a border village with Soviet and Czechoslovak halves, dividing families, farms, properties and couples. After the fall of Communism, many thought their separation would be ended forever, but a new border between Slovakia (i.e. the European Union) and Ukraine keeps things complicated. The film misses some major opportunities, but the subject matter is so interesting that doesn’t matter. Grade: B.

AVERAGE FILMS
25. KYRGYZSTAN, “The Light Thief”- Another entertaining but unspectacular film, “The Light Thief” is fascinating most of all for its window on culture in rural Kyrgyzstan. “Mr. Light” connects peasants to the state electricity grid for free and eventually comes into conflict with local politicians. My friend and I argued about the ending and what happened to Mr. Light. Grade: B-

26. ITALY, “The First Beautiful Thing”- This was one of the favorites, and everyone was shocked when it wasn’t nominated. Actually, I think it’s a pretty average Italian comedy-drama about the relationship between a beautiful, free-spirited woman and her son, spanning several decades. Grade: B-

27. IRAQ, “Son of Babylon”- A silent Kurdish granny and her grandson search post-war Iraq for the woman’s son, who was imprisoned under Saddam. It’s hard to say anything bad about this film, which was made under such difficult conditions. It’s a good film, if a bit slow. Grade: B-

28. BELGIUM, “Illegal”- A Russian woman living illegally with her son in Belgium is caught by local authorities and taken to an immigration detention center, while her young son escapes. I disagreed strongly with the politics of the film, as we are supposed to sympathize with the lead character as she refuses to cooperate with the Belgian authorities. Having worked in immigration for three years, I had little sympathy for her as she provided false names, false nationalities and generally refused to try to work within the system to get asylum (which does not seem to be very hard in Western Europe...) Well-acted but preachy...I didn’t like it. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C+

29. CHINA, “Aftershock”- Oh, it all started so well......This big-budget Chinese film begins with a family experiencing the Great Tangshan Earthquake that killed hundreds of thousands, in frightening, gory, tragic detail (the CGI are a bit obvious, but okay). Unfortunately, once the earthquake is over, the film turns into a soap opera with dedicated Communist parents adopting orphans, and bizarre coincidences reuniting families. Maybe my expectations were too high, but the “drama” doesn’t match up to director Feng Xiaogang’s “action”. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C+

30. GREENLAND, “Nuummioq”- Like Kyrgyzstan’s “Light Thief”, the main attraction of this film is to see the landscapes of a country rarely seen on film. A “Nuummioq” (a resident of the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk) likes to drink and hang out with his stepbrother, but his life changes when he finds out he has cancer. An interesting look at what it’s like to live in Greenland, but out of its league here. Grade: C+

31. FRANCE, “Of Gods and Men”- Well-made, well-acted true story about a monastery of French Catholic monks living in Algeria during the 1980s during a period of brutal Islamic violence. It’s nice that the heroic story of these men who lived in harmony with the local community has been memorialized on film, but it’s not a particularly engaging or interesting film and I'm very sorry but frankly I was bored. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C

32. ARGENTINA, “Carancho”- Ricardo Darin stars as an ambulance-chasing lawyer. Lots of juicy endings this year, but otherwise a mostly forgettable thriller. The Argentines can do better. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C

33. RUSSIA, “The Edge”- A technically superior film about life in a Siberian work camp, filled with macho men, racing steam engines and views of the barren steppes of Siberia in the late 1940s. Unfortunately, it’s not particularly engaging or interesting. Grade: C

34. COLOMBIA, “Crab Trap”- A white Colombian wanders into an Afro-Colombian village in search of something or someone. He meets a little girl and takes a room in beachfront lodge....It’s slow but never boring, and I suppose it’s interesting if you think of it as a cultural travelogue, but not much happens. Grade: C

35. BANGLADESH, “Third Person Singular Number”- An educated middle-class Bangladeshi woman from a troubled family (jailed husband, estranged mother) finds it more difficult to find an apartment than a job (landlords think any woman who lives alone must be a prostitute). She ends up in a flirtatious relationship with a successful recording artist, presenting her with a number of moral dilemmas. A flawed film to be sure, and definitely out of its league at the Oscars, but interesting nonetheless. (Available in Bangladesh with English subtitles) Grade: C

BAD FILMS
36. GREECE, “Dogtooth”- I love black comedies. I love surreal humor. I love how Takashi Miike can make extreme violence funny. I did not love “Dogtooth”. The film is certainly original, but it takes a fascinating idea (an insane husband and wife raise their three children with no contact with the outside world) and almost makes it boring. Not sure how this made the Top Five....(Available on Netflix)
Grade: C- (and only because the screenplay is an original one)

37. PHILIPPINES, “Noy”- Okay, so maybe this one isn’t a bad film, but it is a forgettable one. “Noy” is a drama about a talented videographer with no formal qualifications lying his way into a job as a documentarian for Filipino TV. He has a rough family life including a handicapped brother who earns money by helping a drug gang and a mother who the family tries to force into a relationship with a gross older American man. The Philippines doesn’t come across looking too good in this movie and Noy is not as sympathetic as the filmmakers want him to be. That’s about all I can remember. (Available in the Philippines with English subtitles) Grade: C-

38. ROMANIA, “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”- I’m not partial to the Romanian New Wave, and I found this story of a young man about to released from a juvenile detention facility to be quite boring. It’s a lot better than the mind-numbing “Police Adjective” Romania sent last year, and it does get better as the story builds to its climax, but I was generally bored. (Available on Netflix) Grade. C-

39. FINLAND, “Steam of Life”- I feel bad putting this film so low since it’s a well-made documentary, but not one that managed to capture my interest. A big hit in its native Finland, it’s the story of famously reserved Finnish men baring their life’s traumas in the comfort of the country’s renowned saunas. A lot of sad stories which hopefully provided catharsis to all involved, but I'm afraid I was bored. Grade: C-

40. PORTUGAL, “To Die Like A Man”- It sounds difficult to make a campy movie about an aging drag queen dull but that’s exactly what the Portuguese have done with this overlong melodrama about the misadventures of a transgender cabaret singer, and her (his?) violent 21-year old son from an earlier liaison. Starts off interesting, but could have used some judicious editing (i.e. most scenes with her dog) since it goes on much MUCH too long. (Available on Netflix Streaming) Grade: D+

41. TURKEY "Honey"- This winner of the Golden Bear in Berlin is quite a pretty film if you're interesting in watching a travelogue of rural Turkey. However, this virtually plotless, scriptless film about a little boy whose father disappears (well, not really....you see what happens to him in the first scene) is mind-numbingly slow and not worth watching. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D+

42. POLAND, “All That I Love”- The most memorable thing about this forgettable Cold War drama set in 1980s Communist Poland is that I barely remember seeing it. It’s a trifling, uninteresting coming-of-age tale about a teenager with a punk band. Neighboring Hungary took a similar plot (substituting punk for rock-n-roll) with “Made in Hungaria” which was ten times better. Grade: D

43. BULGARIA, “Eastern Plays”- A drab, depressing drama about the intersecting lives of a recovering Bulgarian drug addict, his neo-Nazi brother, and a Turkish family visiting Bulgaria. Lots of important issues here, but it’s not done in an interesting way. I’m not sure how this film was able to win the Tokyo Film Festival in 2009. Grade: D

44. ESTONIA, “The Temptation of St. Tony”- I was really excited to see this film which is billed as the story of a man who suddenly decides to abandon all morals. Unfortunately, it's an experimental and virtually plotless mess that manages to be shocking and boring at the same time. Looks like a student film project gone awry. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D-

45. THAILAND, “Uncle Boonmee”- Creative? Possibly. Good? No. I lived in Thailand for years and I am a great lover of Thai cinema but I’m embarrassed that their first Cannes win is for this pretentious, nonsensical film. The director seems to think that if he throws enough crazy ideas on the screen that it will be art. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D-

I haven't got a chance to see the other 21 films from Afghanistan, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Latvia, Macedonia, Mexico, Norway, Puerto Rico, Serbia, Slovenia, Switzerland and Uruguay, but plan on seeing "Biutiful" soon, plus "La Pivellina" (scheduled to be released on DVD in the USA in March) and "Cirkus Columbia (May), whereupon I'll add them to the rankings.

NEXT: 2012 Oscars- The Films of Western Europe

Best Foreign Film; 2011-2012- FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS, POLAND to VIETNAM

2011-08-04T20:02:00.000-07:00

Here's the last batch....Now let's see which countries enter the race....

78. POLAND made things easy by choosing their Oscar nominee in June- namely, Agnieszka Holland’s “In Darkness”. Holland was at the center of one of this category’s biggest controversies, when Germany declined to send a film to the competition in 1991 even though Holland’s “Europa, Europa” was winning awards internationally. Germany said it wasn’t a German-majority film (Holland is Polish) although she had represented West Germany and been Oscar nominated in 1985! In all honesty, I probably would have guessed wrong with “Battle of Warsaw, 1920”, a war drama about the Russia-Poland conflict or “Joanna”, a baity film about a Polish woman who saves a Jewish girl during WWII. The winner of the Polish Eagles (the local Oscars) was “Essential Killing”, but this film starring Vincent Gallo was probably ineligible due to too much English.

79. PORTUGAL has arguably the world’s worst record. They are tied with Egypt for the most Oscar entries with no nominations but, unlike Egypt, I don’t think they’ve ever even come close. This year’s most acclaimed film is clearly sumptuous costume drama “Mysteries of Lisbon”, by Chilean director Raul Ruiz that has gotten surprisingly good reviews despite its four-and-a-half-hour running time. It’s the adaptation of a popular Portuguese novel about a young man raised in an orphanage searching for the identity of his parents, one of whom is a countess. Among its awards was a sweep at the 2011 Portuguese Golden Globes. Runner-up: 102-year old Manoel deOliveira’s latest film “The Strange Case of Angelica” is about a funereal photographer who takes mystical journeys with a young dead girl. It premiered at Cannes 2010, but took a year to be released in Portugal. It’s unlikely they’d choose anything other than these two films….Highly unlikely: “Civil War”, about a restless mother and son in 1982 Portugal.

80. PUERTO RICO has very little going on this year. If they enter the competition, it may be with “America”, about a woman who flees her beautiful Caribbean island because of an abusive husband, and seeks friendship and solace as a nanny among the Hispanic immigrant community in the Bronx.

81. ROMANIA, despite its much-publicized New Wave, is still trying for its first nomination. I personally thought “4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days” was a good movie, but I thought “If I Want to Whistle” was boring and “Police, Adjective” was just plain awful. Romanian movies tend to circulate at Film Festivals for a year or more before they premiere in Romania. So, I don’t think “Loverboy” (Cannes 2011) will be eligible. Therefore, I’m predicting “Medal of Honor”, a drama about an old man who wins a medal for something he can’t remember doing. It premiered in 2009, winning the Thessaloniki FIPRESCI award and lost to “If I want to Whistle” at this year’s Romanian Oscars (the Gopos). Also nominated were “Morgen”, a comedy-drama about rural Romanians hiding a Muslim illegal immigrant, and three-hour documentary “Autobiography of Nicolae Ceaucescu”. Also possible: eccentric romantic comedy “Hello, How Are You?” or “Portrait of the Fighter as a Young Man”, a lengthy historical drama about Romania’s anti-Communist resistance. I predict “Medal of Honor”, followed by “Aurora” and “Morgen”. If “Loverboy” does premiere, the drama about young pimps will be a strong challenger to “Medal” for the nomination.

82. RUSSIA probably has the easiest choice of any of the major countries....It’s almost certain to be “Elena”, an engrossing dark, family drama that has won awards (including Cannes), gotten universally positive reviews in Russia and abroad, and is by a director that has already found favor with the Russian Academy- Andrei Zvyagintsev, who was selected in 2003 for “The Return”. I did not enjoy “The Return”. The film is scheduled to premiere in Russian cinemas two days before the deadline, a possible indication that the producers have their eye on an Oscar. I say it’s a pretty easy choice. It’s main competition is “Silent Souls” (FIPRESCI Prize at Venice 2010; Best Pic Nom at the Nika Awards), a spiritual drama with deep roots in Russian culture, about a man on a journey to cremate his wife. I’m pretty sure “Elena” will be the Russian nominee, but other possibilities include big-budget war drama “Brest Fortress” (also see BELARUS) and “A Stoker”, a grim drama about a Russian man living in exile in the frigid ethnic Yakut republic of Sakha during the 1990s. Alexander Sokurov’s German-language retelling of the story of “Faust” will premiere in Venice and might be included in the shortlist if it’s any good, and if it gets released in time, as might “Heart’s Boomerang”, about a young man who learns he’s dying, or “Inadequate People”, a well-reviewed quirky comedy (yes, Russian makes comedies! They selected one in 2008!) about a middle-aged man and a teenage girl. Some people have mentioned “The Hunter”, a two-hour film about pig farming that played at Cannes, but I don’t see it having any chance whatsoever.

83. SERBIA has quite a few well-received films this year, and I’m not at all sure which one they’ll pick. I think the frontrunners are three: “The Enemy”, an odd supernatural war drama about the devil himself, who may or may not be personally playing a role in newly peaceful Bosnia in 1995, “Montevideo, God Bless You!”, a warm, happy sports comedy about Yugoslavia’s team in the first World Cup, in 1930; and “Skinning”, a youth drama about a smart young teen who falls under the influence of a neo-Nazi group. Dark horses include two dramas coincidentally set in the same depressed mining town of Bor: “White White World”, a sort of Balkan musical starring a number of local characters, and “Tilva Ros”, which has appeared at more festivals than any Serbian film, but whose youthful nonprofessional cast look straight out of “jackass”, and “How I Was Stolen by the Germans”, a violent period black comedy. Unlikely: youthful omnibus film “October” looks great, and family drama “Together” sounds nice enough, but neither has made much of a blip internationally. Lazar Ristovski has starred in EIGHT Serbian submissions, but his latest, “White Lions” looks too silly to make a mark. My prediction: “Skinning”, followed by “Enemy”, “Montevideo” and “White White World”.

84. SINGAPORE submitted three films between 2005 and 2008 and two of those were by Eric Khoo, so it would seem like a safe bet to predict Khoo’s latest arty film, “Tatsumi”. Like Khoo’s previous two submissions, “Tatsumi” also played at Cannes. It’s a rather strange animated film about the life of famed Japanese comic book artists Tatsumi Yoshihiro, interspersing “clips” of his life with animated version of some of his most disturbing stories. The film is a strange one and it’s in Japanese so I’m not sure if the crew is Singaporean enough to qualify, but they’ll probably send it anyway. However, I’m hoping they send “It’s a Great, Great World”, a popular big-scale comedy set in five different decades, and directed by Kelvin Tong. “Where the Road Meets the Sun” , starring Ugly Betty’s Eric Mabius, appears to contain too much English to contend.

85. SLOVAKIA has been very proud of its filmmaking record this year, with a strong showing at Berlin, Karlovy Vary and possibly others later this year. Their obvious choice is “Gypsy” (Cigan), a drama about a Roma boy running afoul of the rules of his community, by director Martin Sulik. Independent Slovakia submitted his film, “Everything I Like”, in 1993 and they proceeded to send all five of Sulik’s fiction features until 2005. He has been making documentaries for the past six years, and “Gypsy” is his first fiction movie in 2011. Any other year, it would be a shoo-in, but this year it faces a lot of competition from “The House”, which won good reviews in Berlin, a bleak drama about a girl battling against the domineering father who is trying to build her a house to keep her in the community, and “Apricot Island”, about inter-ethnic romance in Southern Slovakia (Slovak + Hungarian). Slovakia also likes to choose documentaries, so it’s possible they could choose “Matchmaking Mayor” (by a Czech director) about a Slovak mayor trying to match up her single residents, or “Nick’s Family”, about Jewish children saved in World War II (also the subject of their 1999 submission). There’s too much competition to consider “Visible World” (Karlovy Vary) about a reclusive middle-aged man, “Cherry Boy”, about an actor recovering from a heart attack or “Love”, about a young couple planning a bank heist. All three top films are strong possibilities. I say they stick with Sulik and his “Gypsy” over his two younger rivals.

86. SLOVENIA made it ten years in a row in the Oscar race last year and although they’ve never gotten an Oscar nod, film production is up. It looks like they will have seven or eight eligible features this year, only half of which have been premiered outside of Film Markets….The favorite is clearly “Silent Sonata” (although I prefer the Slovene title, Circus Fantasticus), a drama with no dialogue about a circus touring amidst a family recovering from war. It beat out three of the other eligible films for Best Picture at last year’s Slovenian Film Festival, and that film usually reps Slovenia at the Oscars. In second place, is box-office smash “Going Our Way”, a summer camp comedy and the second-biggest box-office hit in Slovenia’s history and which beat “Sonata” for the Audience Award at the Festival. It’s looks formulaic and not very Oscary, but it also looks like a lot of fun. If “Sonata” is too abstract, and “Our Way” is too commercial, they’ll probably send “Good Night Missy”, a drama about a woman dithering between an unfaithful husband and an unfaithful ex. Other possibilities: Already premiered are father-son drama “Dad” and “Piran-Pirano”, about the history of a multi-ethnic border town. Yet to be released are: three friends on a road trip in “The Trip”, and two new films by twice-selected directors, abstract drama “Archo” and “Goodbye Lenin” remake (?) “State of Shock”

87. SOUTH AFRICA has a great record at the Oscars, as they’ve been shortlisted for Best Foreign Language Film three times since 2004 (even considering they skipped two years)and received a Best Picture nomination for District 9. Their past five submissions have focused on South Africa’s African communities, including Sothos (Life Above All), Zulu (Yesterday), but there’s a dearth of films in indigenous African languages this year. They’ve made up for that with a revival of Afrikaans-language films from South Africa’s white communities. The chief contenders this year are a pair of acclaimed Afrikaans family dramas, namely the gay-themed “Skoonheid” (Beauty) which played at Cannes, and “Roepman”, which is told from the perspective of a 10-year old boy, as well as multi-ethnic, multi-lingual action-comedy “Paradise Stop” which reunites the director and stars of 2009’s delightfully fun “White Wedding”. In fourth place, political thriller “State of Violence” (in Zulu and English). Unlikely dark horses include “Liefling”, a popular teen musical in Afrikaans, “A Small Town Called Descent”, a political thriller and “My Hunter’s Heart”, an acclaimed documentary in San. “Roepman” has by far the best reviews. “Skoonheid” has the highest profile due to its spot in the Cannes line-up. “Paradise Stop” is the most accessible to South African audiences as a whole….but may contain too much English to qualify. My prediction: “Skoonheid”, but I’m not confident.

88. SPAIN traditionally releases a three-film shortlist, and they like to choose their favorite film, i.e. not necessarily the one that has the best chance of being nominated. This year, I predict the finalists will be: “Black Bread” (Winner of Best Picture at the 2011 Goya Awards), “Don’t Be Afraid” (directed by Oscar nominee Montxo Armendariz, “Secrets of the Heart”) and the 800-pound gorilla, “The Skin I Live In” (directed by Pedro Almodovar and starring Antonio Banderas). Now, Almodovar has represented Spain five times, racking up one win, one nomination and one shortlist spot, but he was famously snubbed for “Talk to Her” (a dumb move by Spain), “Bad Education” (my favorite Almodovar, but a wise move by the Spanish Academy which selected Oscar winner “The Sea Inside” instead) and “Broken Embraces” (which didn’t even get shortlisted!), and everyone is wondering how creepy plastic surgery thriller “The Skin I Live In” will do. I think it will be shortlisted and will lose to “Black Bread”, a violent look at post Civil War Catalonia, and the first Catalan-language film to win the Goyas. But it will be really close….”Don’t Be Afraid” is the story a child abuse survivor, which I think will come third. Alternates for the Spanish shortlist: “No Peace for the Wicked” will premiere at San Sebastian and “The Waves”, the story of an aging man, won in Moscow has the best chance of breaking through, while bizarre killer clown drama “The Last Circus” and gentle dramedy “Cousinhood” could also come into play. Less likely: Basque family rival drama “The Stone”, and “Madrid 1987”. As for “La Voz Dormiga”, it’s not scheduled to premiere in time.

89. SRI LANKA has randomly sent two films in the past eight years. This year’s most likely submission is “Flying Fish”, a grim set against the background of theTamil conflict like their last film from 2009. In second place: “Sinhawalokana”, a musical about cricket, which is a more commercial film and one that looks an awful lot like India’s Oscar-nominated “Lagaan”. They likely won’t send a film, but they also have “Mahindagamanaya”, a colorful story about the arrival of Buddhism on the island, or “Karma”, an arty drama about a young man who has an affair with a cancer patient.

90. SWEDEN, as usual, has quite a few films to choose from this year. Interestingly enough, the egalitarian Swedes are now the only major European country never to choose a film directed by a woman (the Spaniards were the other until last year). I’ve narrowed down the field to a likely six: “Behind Blue Skies” is a comic drama starring Bill Skarsgard (of last year’s shortlisted “Simple Simon”), about a young man from a broken home who gets a job on a resort island; “Between Two Fires” is a critically acclaimed drama about romance in an asylum processing center, which may be handicapped by including two much English between the international cast to qualify, “Beyond” is a traditional Swedish family drama with a feminist slant, which got a Best Pic nom and a Best Director win at last year’s Swedish Oscars, “Happy End” is a yet-to-be-released “fairy tale for adults” about the intersecting lives of five people, “Play”, a controversial story about a group of bold, black immigrant children who take advantage of their richer ethnic Swedish classmates, and “Sound of Noise” is a bizarre anarchic musical. Two of these are directed by women (“Beyond” and “Between Two Fires”) as are three of the four dark horses, “Pure”, about a female high-school dropout, “She-Monkeys” (Berlin), a disturbing low-budget drama about teenage girls and “With Every Heartbeat”, about the strange, emotional relationship between two adult women who are about to become stepsisters. Rounding out the Top Ten films of the year is “Beyond the Border”, a wintry action-drama set during WWII on the Sweden-Norway border. Will this be the year of the woman? It might be for actress Pernilla August and “Beyond”, but unfortunately I’m ranking her third, with quirky “Sound of Noise” representing Sweden, “Happy End” in second, “Play” in fourth and “Behind Blue Skies” in fifth.

91. SWITZERLAND, as always, has some quirky films in the running. This year, all the contenders seem to be from the German-speaking regions, as opposed to the French ones that have gotten to represent Switzerland two years in a row. Sure to make their shortlist are a trio of well-reviewed films that are genuinely Swiss-majority productions: “Hell” (in German) is a sci-fi drama executive produced by Roland Emmerlich (“Independence Day”) about a family searching for water in an era when the sun in drying out; “Manipulation” (in German) is a Cold War conspiracy thriller starring Klaus Maria Brandauer (“Out of Africa”) set in 1956 about the investigation into a star reporter’s suicide; and “Sennentuntschi” (in Swiss German) is a fairy tale-horror film, about a villager who encounters a woman who may or may not be real. Rounding out the Top Five are two youth dramas, both in Swiss German: “Silver Forest”, a coming-of-age drama about a group of boys who are tempted by a far-right group, and “Fliegende Fische”, about a girl’s relationship with her mother. Possible for the shortlist, but less likely for the nomination: romantic comedy “Overbooked”, surreal comedy “The Sandman”, rural drama “Songs of Love and Hate”, cancer drama “Ward Pirates” and “Murder Behind the Curtain”, a mystery-comedy which was the final film by 91-year old Swiss grand dame Stephanie Glaser. My prediction: “Hell” tops “Manipulation”, although I’m rooting for a shock win for the creepy straw doll in “Sennentuntschi”. UPDATE (9/6/2011): "Hell" is not eligible as it will premiere two weeks after the deadline, so I'm changing my prediction to "Manipulation". Switzerland announced sixteen eligible films, and I feel as if "Colors in the Dark", starring Bruno Ganz and "Mangrove", about a Swiss woman returning to the scene of a childhood tragedy in Mexico, should also be considered leading contenders.

92. TAIWAN has a three-way race, and it’s not a particularly close one. The favorite is the much-anticipated “Seediq Bale”, an expensive (10 million US dollars!) look at a 1930 uprising by an aboriginal tribe against Japanese rule, by the director of their major hit, “Cape No. 7”. It will be released in two parts in September 2010. If it’s any good, it will definitely be the representative of Taiwan. If it’s not any good, they’ll probably choose one of their 2010 Golden Horse winners. Oddly enough, “When Love Comes” won Best Picture over “The Fourth Portrait”, whereas “Portrait” beat “Love” for Best Taiwanese Film. “When Love Comes” swept the awards overall and this family drama about a man with two wives will probably finish ahead of “Portrait”, about a ten-year old adjusting to a new family after the death of his father.

93. TAJIKISTAN has sent two films since gaining independence in 1991, both of which were very good. Tajikistan is the poorest republic to emerge from the former USSR, and I don’t think they have any feature films this year. “Waiting for the Sea”, by Bakhtiyar Khudojnazarov, should be their next release.

94. TANZANIA sent a Swahili-language film once in 2001. I’m fairly certain they won’t send anything, but they could send “Ray of Hope”, a drama about an HIV-positive woman fighting for her rights. It premiere at the Zanzibar International Film Festival and is directed by female Indian expat director Sajni Srivastava.

95. THAILAND hasn’t had too many quality films this year, which means that it’s highly likely they’ll send “King Naresuan III: Naval Battle” a 16th century epic with beautiful costumes, thrilling battle scenes and royal credentials from its director, Prince Chatrichalerm Yukol whose films have been selected four times. King Naresuan II was selected in 2007. They may also “King Naresuan 4”, which is scheduled to be released in August, but which I think will be postponed. There are few non-Naresuan films around this year that aren’t lightweight romantic dramas, comic ghost movies or lowbrow comedies. Among the other unlikely contenders would be “Laddaland”, a family-themed horror film, explicit gay-interest drama “Insects in the Backyard”, which hasn’t been able to pass the censors yet, muay thai documentary “Lumphini”, “Mindfulness and Murder”, a Buddhist murder mystery which would have a better chance if weren’t directed by a foreigner, action film “Red Eagle” by Wisit Sasanatieng (“Citizen Dog”) which has starpower but only middling reviews. I think “Naresuan III” is pretty much a lock. Runner-ups are “Naresuan IV” and “Headshot”, which both of which are unlikely to be released in time.

96. TUNISIA last sent a film in 2002. They’ve been pretty busy this year starting off the Arab Spring so they haven’t had much time to make movies…..I don’t know of any new fiction Tunisian features this year- “Les Palmieres Blesses” (a woman finds a job as a secretary) and “Fin Decembre” (a number of intersecting stories, including a man who returns from abroad to look for a wife) have repped Tunisia at Film Festivals this year but premiered too early. There’s a chance they may send “No More Fear” (Cannes), a documentary about the recent events of the Arab Spring.

97. TURKEY has never received an Oscar nomination, although they were shortlisted once for Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s “Three Monkeys”. I do not like Nuri Bilge Ceylan. “Three Monkeys” was adequate, “Distant” was awful, and I have little desire to see the longer (2 ½ hour), more abstract “Once Upon A Time in Anatolia”, about a group of men searching for the body of a murder victim. It won the Jury Prize at Cannes, but “Climates” won the FIPRESCI Prize and they didn’t choose that either. Even though it’s the clear favorite, I think “Once Upon A Time” will finish in second place in the Turkish race behind Turkish Cypriot director Dervis Zaim’s “Shadows and Faces”, about Greek-Turkish tensions in 1963 Cyprus. It won major awards at two of Turkey’s three major film festivals, including Best Picture in Ankara. The two strong dark horses are “Press”, a low-budget drama about the travails of Turkish journalists (which won major prizes at all three big Turkish festivals) and “Hunting Season” a solid murder mystery by renowned Yavuz Turgul, who has repped Turkey twice, but it’s not considered to be his best work. Less likely but possible: “Five Minarets in New York” is an expensive box-office hit action film that co-stars Western actors Danny Glover and Gina Gershon, about Turkish police searching for a smuggler in New York, and “Majority”, about a slacker living with his domineering father, which won Best Picture at the Golden Oranges. One of those should rep Turkey. “Hayde Bre” won Best Pic in Shanghai, “Hair” won Best Pic in Istanbul and “Our Grand Despair” competed in Berlin, but I just don’t think they’ll be competitive. I pick dark horse “Shadows and Faces” but that may be wishful thinking that Ceylan doesn’t get it.

98. UKRAINE has taken the past two years off, but they will likely return with depressing, angst-ridden road movie “My Joy”, about a truck driver and a young prostitute, the most prominent Ukrainian film on the FF circuit in years. The film premiered in the main competition of Cannes in 2010 more than a year ago, but it had its local bow in Ukraine within the Oscar deadline, later that year. It also won the Grand Prix (2nd place) at the Kyiv Film Festival. Nevertheless, it sounds so depressing!

99. UNITED KINGDOM submits intermittently due to a lack of foreign-language films, and for the third year in a row, I am fairly certain they’ll send “Patagonia”, a long-delayed film which finally had its confirmed domestic premiere in April. It’s a well-received road movie with some well-known stars (Matthew Rhys of Brothers and Sisters) in Welsh and Spanish about Welsh settlers in Argentina. Unlikely but possible: “Pusher”, a Hindi-language crime drama set in England, and based on the famous Danish film of the same time.

100. URUGUAY likes the choose the underdog, sometimes for good reasons (“Bad Day for Fishing” beat “Gigante”) and sometimes for bad (“La Vida Util” beat “Leo’s Room”). This tiny country has been active in filmmaking for the last few years, leading to four main contenders- “Beyond the Road”, by a Brazilian director, is about two strangers taking a road trip through Uruguay; “Norberto’s Deadline”, about a man who loses his job, and starts taking acting lessons, “Silent House” is a creepy, horror movie with mixed reviews shot in one take; and “The Wedding” is about a 60-year old trans man who is finally able to become a woman. “Porfirio” played at Cannes. Multi-national “Porfirio” sounds too Colombian, and “Southern Cross” probably won’t premiere in time. Statistics make it look like they’ll choose “Norberto” since it stars Daniel Hendler (co-star of three Oscar submissions- two Argentine, one Uruguayan) and is exactly the sort of droll deadpan comedy the Uruguayans choose year after year. Runner-up: underdog “Silent House”

101. VENEZUELA will likely be deciding between two films with the same theme- namely, the country’s tragic 1999 floods that killed roughly 20,000 people on the Caribbean coast. “The Kid Who Lies” is one of only a handful of Venezuelan films that have competed at a Class-A Festival (Berlin’s “Generation” sidebar), and bills itself as the first Venezuelan film to deal with the tragedy. The titular character tells a different fib every time he’s asked where the rest of his family is, as the audience slow. It was followed a few months later by “The Rumble of the Stones”, about a woman trying to raise her two sons in a Caracas slum ten years after losing her home and her daughter in the floods. The National Film Festival saw the two films compete against each other, with “Rumble” prevailing, winning Best Film, Best Screenplay, Best Actress and three other awards. The other big winner was not “The Kid” at all (which won a single award for “Best Sound”), but “Reveron”, a well-reviewed box-office failure which is a period autobiography of famed Venezuelan painter, Armando Reveron, which won Best Director, Best Actor, the Audience Award and four other awards. If they want to go for a more political film, they could choose “Days of Power” by 80-year old Roman Chalbaud, who directed Venezuela’s first-ever Oscar contender in 1978…but I doubt it. It will be close, but I predict “Rumble” over “The Kid” by a nose.

102. VIETNAM’s VCA, announced in 2008 and 2010 that they wouldn’t participate this year because they say that their films are either not subtitled, not released in commercial cinemas or not good. I hope they change their mind because some of their films look fantastic this year. Take a look at the gorgeous trailer for Long Thanh Cam Gia Ca (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQIiaQWvP4I), a 19th century period drama which won Best Picture at this year’s Silver Kite Awards (the Vietnamese Oscars) but which doesn’t have subtitles and hasn’t screened commercially. Also impressive is 10th century battle drama Thang Long Aspirations http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbUvAeUL54s which looks worthy of something to come out of China. “Floating Lives”, about a dysfunctional family in rural Vietnam has played internationally….So, it’s quite sad that the Vietnamese don’t see the value in joining this competition. I’ll predict the Best Picture winner, which loosely translated as “Songstress in the Citadel”.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:
Attention-seeking QATAR premiered its first-ever feature film “Clockwise” in October of last year, which (rather surprisingly) is a supernatural drama based on the pre-Islamic mythology of djinns. RWANDA has “Grey Matter” (Tribeca 2011) a surreal film about a Rwandan film student trying to make a film in Kigali after losing his source of funding….. SAMOA's first-ever feature film, “The Orator”, has been hailed by its government as an excellent way to promote tourism and show the Samoan way of life to the world. It’s scheduled to premiere this summer and could be sent just as neighboring Fiji’s first film was in 2005...SAUDI ARABIA has no cinemas to meet the screening requirement, but gender-clashing comedy “The Corporation” sounds like a lot of fun. SYRIA is engaged in a battle with its own people right now, so they’re unlikely to enter the Oscar race for the first time in the midst of it. However they’ve had several films on the circuit this year, and “September Rain”, a romantic drama about a widower with six sons. TIMOR-LESTE is in pre-production on its first-ever feature film, “A Guerra Da Beatriz “ but it won’t be released until next year. TOGO is the setting of “Bluebird”, a Belgian-funded and directed film about a group of Togolese children looking for a bluebird. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES is the most likely Gulf state to enter this competition some day, and they have hopes for the upcoming “Sea Shadow”, a coming-of-age drama about two teens from Ras-al-Khaimah, and the first film from the Abu Dhabi production company Imagenation, which could be the first Gulf submission in more than thirty years. UPDATE: The Samoan film will open in October and will be eligible next year, when I expect it will be the first-ever Samoan Oscar submission.

Best Foreign Film; 2011-2012- FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS, IRELAND to PHILIPPINES

2011-07-26T20:25:00.000-07:00

52. IRELAND submitted an Irish Gaelic-language film once in 2007. As far as I know, that film (“Kings”) was the last Irish-language feature produced, although there continue to be a lot of Irish soap operas and television programs being made in Ireland. Normally they’d sit out, but this year’s Best Picture winner at the Irish Film and Television Awards was “As If I’m Not There”, a film with all of its rather minimal dialogue in Serbo-Croatian. It's directed by Juanita Wilson who was an Oscar nominee for Best Short Film in 2010. The film, about the trauma of Bosnian rape victims, could be Ireland’s surprise second entry.

53. ISRAEL automatically chooses the winner of the Ophir Awards, which take place annually in September. This year is essentially a two-film race, namely between: “Footnote”, which is directed by two-time Ophir winner and Oscar nominee (for the dreary, boring “Beaufort”) Joseph Cedar, and which also won Best Screenplay at Cannes; and “Restoration”, which impressively won the top Prizes in both Karlovy Vary and Jerusalem. “Restoration” is a drama about the family dynamics at a restoration workshop, between a man, his apprentice and his estranged son. “Footnote” is another father-son drama, this time starring Lior Ashkenazi (“Late Marriage”, “Walk on Water”) about two Talmudic (Jewish studies) professors. Both of these will be sure to be nominated for the top Ophir, probably joined by “Beautiful Valley”, about an elderly woman pushed aside by the privatization of her kibbutz, “My Australia”, set in Poland, about a Holocaust survivor concealing her Jewish heritage from her teenage kids, and the amusingly titled “The Slut”, about a promiscuous 30-something woman. “Obsession”, about a woman desperately trying to keep her husband, as seen by her silent young son, may also slip in to the Top Five, but I doubt anything but “Footnote” or “Restoration” can win. My prediction: Ophir voters care less about Cannes than people expect, and “Restoration” reps Israel.

54. ITALY has won this award more than any other country (even France!) although their heyday is far in the past; they won 5 of their 13 Oscars in the 40s and 50s, 2 in the 1960s and 3 more in the 1970s. My prediction is Nanni Moretti’s Cannes comedy-drama “We Have A Pope”, about the election of a new pontiff. Reviews haven’t been perfect, but it’s said to be a solid, mainstream effort. The other top contender is “We Believed”, a 19th century historical drama about the unification of Italy, which is positively NOT mainstream....It’s more than three hours long, and has been savaged by Western critics (so was Italy’s 2002 submission, “Pinocchio”, which I actually liked) but it won Best Picture at the national David Donatello Awards, so it shouldn't be counted out. Three other films by top directors could be selected IF they premiere in Italy before September 30. The long-awaited “Big House” by “Gomorrah” director Matteo Garrone, is an indictment of Italian media and reality television and “Terraferma”, by Emanuele Crialese (“Golden Door”), which will premiere in Venice, tells the story of an African woman trying to reach EU soil, via Sicily. “The Cardboard Village” tells the story of a number of illegal immigrants who seek sanctuary in a church which is scheduled for destruction. Some of those three will likely have to compete next year. Rounding out the Top Six is “The Salt of Life” an understated comedy of the sort that Italy use to send regularly. Less likely but possible: crime drama “A Quiet Life” and hit comedy “Welcome to the South”; both got Best Pic nominations at this year’s Italian Oscars, but “Quite Life” has been “Quiet” and “South” depends on some very local humor. Two dramas about the lives of Italian women- “First Assignment” and “Corpo Celeste” have gotten great reviews, but haven’t been seeing very much play internationally. I think Italy will elect "Pope", but I’m not confident at all. I get the feeling Italy will send some new film I’ve never hearD of yet- perhaps one which WILL premiere in Venice?

55. JAPAN has no obvious candidates. I predict the race will be between two outsiders who have already been in the Oscar race- “I Wish”, is by one of my favorite Japanese directors, Hirokazu Koreeda, and tells the story of two boys trying to get their divorced parents back together. Koreeda is an independent director outside the Japanese mainstream, but he was nominated by Japan in a similar weak year in 2004 for the excellent “Nobody Knows”. “Norwegian Wood” is by Vietnamese director Tran Anh Hung (“Scent of Green Papaya”), it stars Oscar nominee Rinko Kikuchi and it's based on the famous Murakami Haruki novel, but I'm skeptical that Japan would be comfortable selecting a foreign director to represent them (Sang-il Lee, a South Korean citizen, was selected in 2006, but he was born and raised in Japan). The other four main contenders this year are: “Oba the Last Samurai”, a bilingual war drama set in Okinawa in 1944 and co-starring Daniel Baldwin (it will have an excellent chance if it's more than 50% in Japanese), “Ogawa no hotori”, a period samurai drama co-starring Rinko Kikuchi, “Patisserie, Coin de la Rue”, a romantic comedy, and “Shin-San, Tanko Machi no Serenade”, set in 1963, about a woman returning to her hometown, directed by twice-selected Hideyuki Hirayama. Other obscure possibilities rounding out the Top Ten include “Hospitalite”, a low-key farcical comedy, ”Heaven’s Story”, an arty 4+ hour drama about two homicides (God...I hope they don’t choose it! I’ll never get through it!), “My Back Page”, a comedy set in the 1960s starring heart-throb Satoshi Tsumabuki, “Princess Toyotomi”, a crowd-pleasing conspiracy thriller referred as a Japanese DaVinci code, and two pretty period dramas- “Lady Shogun and Her Men” and “Sakuradamon Gate”- which ultimately failed to get any major nominations at last year’s Japanese Oscars. Unlikely: Naomi Kawase thrilled Cannes with “A Mourning Forest” but bored Japan with “Hanezu” and “Harakiri: Death of a Samurai” which will probably premiere too late. Top Three: "I Wish", "Oba the Last Samurai" and "Norwegian Wood".

56. JORDAN made one of the best Foreign Films of 2008 (“Captain Abu Raed”) and send it to the Oscars but it was pipped by inferior films from Austria, France and neighboring Israel (I didn’t see the German nominee). What a shame. They have at least two movies this year- “Transit Cities” is an ultra-low budget film about a woman returning home to Jordan after divorcing her husband in the United States, and “Fish Above Sea Level” is about a man whose inheritance falls through. They’re both possibilities, but I’m prediciting “Fish”.

57. KAZAKHSTAN has become a regular fixture here, racking up two shortlist spots in five years. Last year’s film, “Strayed” got very mixed reviews although I personally would recommend it. This year’s two main appearances on the film festival circuit are “Gakku” (Moscow), about two young men whose university education is thrown into jeopardy by the fall of the USSR in 1991, and “Mother’s Paradise” (Karlovy Vary), about a single mother, abandoned by her husband, forced to do terrible things to take care of her children. Two other movies have been highly publicized due to their international stars. “The Liquidator” (by the director of “Strayed”) is an action movie starring Vinnie Jones as a mute enforcer, while “Late Love” is a romantic drama about a number of older men looking for wives, including French actor Gerard Depardieu. Other possibilities include: “Sword of Victory” (which may not premiere in time), an epic historical action movie, “The Wanderer”, a low-budget drama, and “Fairytale Forest”, which incorporates animation and live-action into a modern-day fairy tale. Unlikely but possible: “Zheruik”, about the country’s multi-ethnic patchwork of peoples, and “Unreal Love” a romantic comedy about Internet dating. My prediction: “Late Love” reps the Kazakhs, followed by “Gakku”, “Mother’s Paradise” and “Sword of Victory”.

58. KOREA sends wonderful films to the Academy almost every year (although last year’s “Barefoot Dream” was mediocre) but still hasn't managed its first Oscar nod. The Korean films are one of the reasons I try to see all the films on the Oscar list instead of seeing just the nominees- it’s hard to justify how “Mother”, ”Crossing”, “Spring Summer Fall Winter and Spring”, or “King and the Clown” could be ignored by the Academy. The Koreans will have a tough choice this year, sifting through high-octane thrillers, quiet art films, Korean War epics, engaging mysteries and entertaining romantic comedies. Last year, they veered towards a commercial crowd-pleaser over a slew of Film Festival winners, and I don’t know if this will represent a trend or not. I think it was probably a desperate attempt to throw something more commercial at the Americans, in the hopes of getting a nomination. Last year, Korea shortlisted six films (See http://www.screendaily.com/news/asia-pacific/a-barefoot-dream-is-koreas-surprise-oscar-submission/5018003.article for a look at their decision-making process) . In alphabetical order, I see the six front-runners this year as: “Children”, a true-life murder-mystery about the disappearance of five boys in a rural region of Korea, “The Front Line”, a big-budget Korean War summer blockbuster, about the last days of the war, when both sides were trying to seize territory, in anticipation of a cease-fire , “Glove”, a box-office hit baseball drama about a washed-up coach who takes over for a team of hearing-impaired kids, “Hanji”, a cultural drama by acclaimed director Im Kwon-taek, about the cultural processes of Korean traditional paper, “Poongsan”, a low-budget drama written by Kim Ki-duk, about a man tasked with delivering messages across the heavily militarized North-South Korean border and “The Yellow Sea”, an action-crime drama about a man from a Korean-speaking region of China who is sent to Korea to carry out a hit. Dark horses for the shortlist also include: “In Love and the War”, about an isolated, neutral village trying to please both sides during the Korean War, “Late Blossom”, about a romance between two elderly people, and “Sector 7”, a much-anticipated 3D monster movie (Hit monster movie “The Host” was shortlisted in 2006). Less likely: period comedy-mystery “Detective K” (too comic), family drama “The Last Blossom” (too small), and mystery-thriller “No Doubt” (too obscure). Whatever happens, the Koreans are bound to pick a great film, so make sure to go and seek it out! My prediction: none of the films are perfect, but the Koreans will choose “The Yellow Sea”, which has American backers over #2- “Poongsan” and #3- The Front Line”, with “Hanji” and “Children” rounding out the Top Five.

59. KUWAIT last sent a film in 1978. They do have a potential contender in “Tora Bora”, about a Kuwaiti husband and wife looking for their lost son in Afghanistan. It’s unclear whether this will screen in cinemas or, as seems more likely, as an episodic miniseries on Kuwaiti TV.

60. KYRGYZSTAN sends films every other year or so...This year, the only features I know about are an obscure duo: “Talas-Bishkek” is about a taxi driver who falls for a pretty lady passenger, and “Adep Akhlak” is an absurdist film about three friends, including one who keeps trying to commit suicide. Dark horse is “Mother’s Paradise”, a new Kazakh film directed by Kyrgyzstan’s top director, Aktan Arym Kubat (who directed three of the country’s five submissions thus far). I’ll predict “Talas-Bishkek”.

61. LATVIA has six or seven eligible releases (depending on the autumn release of comedy "Monsieur Taurins"), which is quite a lot for them! This year is basically a two-film race between “The Return of Sergeant Lapins” a wry comedy about the difficulties faced by a Latvian soldier trying to readjust to normal life after serving in a war zone in Iraq, and “Threesome Dance”, a WWII drama about a Latvian soldier sentenced to death for deserting from the Nazi army, and the Latvian woman who becomes involved in a love triangle with him and a German commandant. It’s going to be really close, but I predict Latvia asks for a “Threesome”. “Gulf Stream Under Iceberg” looks impressive, but I doubt the Latvians would choose a Russian-language movie.

62. LEBANON always sends interesting, thought-provoking films to this competition (OK...”Bosta” wasn’t very thought-provoking...) and it’s unfortunate that they stopped sending films in 2008. I hope they rejoin. This year, they have no less than four films that have a chance. Two of them won awards in Abu Dhabi: “Here Comes the Rain” (Best Arab Film) is about a man who had to readjust to normal life with his family after being held captive by kidnappers for twenty years, while “OK, Enough, Goodbye” (Best New Director) is a droll, low-budget comedy about a 40-year old mama’s boy whose elderly mother leaves him without telling him where she is going. The other two star “Caramel” actress/director Nadine Labaki. “Stray Bullet” (Best Film in Dubai) is a drama about a strong-willed woman (Labaki) who decides to cancel her upcoming wedding, while “Where Do We Go Now?” (Un Certain Regard at Cannes) is a comedy based on the Lysistrata about sectarian tensions in a small town. Labaki stars and directs, just like her charming “Caramel” three years ago. Unfortunately, Oscar ignored it to nominate five inferior films (including a dull war drama about Lebanon, made by archenemy Israel...Ouch!) If they decide to return, I predict they send “Where do We Go Now”, followed by “Bullet” and “Rain”. 3D prostitute drama (?!) “Last Valentine in Beirut”, controversial protest drama “Rue Huvelin” and gay-interest comedy “Out Loud” need not apply.

63. LITHUANIA has a two-way race between its past two Best Picture winners at the national Silver Crane Awards. The 2011 winner, “Back in Your Arms”, a drama about a father and daughter separated for decades by the Iron Curtain, swept this year’s Awards. The 2010 winner, “Eastern Drift”, about a man on the run from the Russian mafia, is also eligible and it got more worldwide play including Berlin & a nomination at the Russian Oscars. Lithuania didn’t send anything last year, but I predict they send “Back in Your Arms”.

64. LUXEMBOURG doesn’t seem to have any eligible films this year, since most of their movies are minority co-productions, or films in English. The only majority Luxembourg film I know of is sauna comedy “Hot Hot Hot”, which is in English. I’ll guess thriller “Avant l’aube” (The Night Clerk) but that’s really a majority-French film with a French director and co-starring French actress Sylvie Testud.

65. MACEDONIA always sends a film if they have one, and this year they’ll end up with three or four before the September 30 deadline. The front-runner is politically incorrect comedy “Punk is Not Dead”, about a group of over-the-hill musicians who reunite their old band when an NGO asks them to do a gig in an ethnic Albanian town. It got a boost by its win in the East of the West Section at Karlovy Vary this year. Two other films- Tarantino-esque gangster comedy “This Is Not An American Movie” and short film omnibus “Skopje Remixed” are also possibilities. Unknown: “The Woman Who Brushed Off Her Tears” is in post-production and will be a major contender if it premieres (doubtful) in time. It’s by a previously selected Macedonian director, and co-stars famed Spanish actress Victoria Abril with a multi-language, multi-national cast and crew.

66. MALAYSIA is a regional economic power, and they produce several dozen films each year, but they seem to have little interest in an Oscar as they have only sent a film once, back in 2004. That year, they sent an expensive 14th century period drama which exemplified style over substance...The film looked great but it was not a great film. This year, they have a similar expensive film entitled “The Malay Chronicles”, which is set in the 16th century, and which has clear, international ambitions. Reviews have been decidedly mixed for this multi-lingual action flick featuring palace intrigue and lavish battles between Chinese, Roman and Malay empires, but it has secured a release in the UK and elsewhere. If the film passes the 50% foreign-language requirement (much of it is in English) they could potentially use the Oscars as a promotional platform. Well-reviewed local Malay-language films this year include “Estet” (a comedy about a football match between rival rubber plantations) and “Cun”, a romantic-comedy, but both are surely too silly and local to coax the Malaysians back to the Oscar race.

67. MEXICO announced an eleven-film shortlist in August, so I cheated and waited for that to come out. Mexican eligibility dates are bizarre, which is perhaps best exemplified by the fact that one of their eleven finalists (“Seven Moments”) was made in 2004. Of the eleven films, I think it’s a two-way race between the favorite- gritty thriller “Miss Bala” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard)- and the challenger, sumptuous period drama “El baile de San Juan”. Most people in the blogosphere are saying that “Miss Bala”, a thriller about an aspiring beauty queen living amidst gangs and violence, is a shoo-in, considering its festival raves and its better reviews. However, I think it’s more likely the Mexicans will choose the costumes and sets of “San Juan”, which helped the Mexicans get their last shortlist spot two years ago, for “Arrancame la Vida” (which also had benefited from good, but not perfect, reviews). “San Juan” is a historical drama set in colonial Mexico, and will likely do better with Oscar voters, even if it isn’t a better film. There’s a small chance they could also choose “Bitten Bullet” (Bala Mordida), a well-reviewed thriller about police corruption and an even smaller chance they’ll choose comedy-drama “Middle of the World (La mitad del mundo), about a young mentally handicapped man’s sexual awakening. I don’t think the other seven films have too much of a chance, including cannibal horror-drama “We Are What We Are” (which I am dying to see). The other contenders are fiction features “180 Degrees”, “Dias de gracia”, “Viaje Redondo” and “Una pared para Cecilia”, and two documentaries- “Seven Moments” and “Flowers in the Desert”. My prediction that one of the top contenders to the Oscars and the other to the Goyas. I predict “El Baile de San Juan” for the Oscars.

68. MONGOLIA has a small domestic film industry which, like many countries, is divided between festival films made for foreign audiences (e.g. the films of Mongolia’s only Oscar nominee, Germany-based Byambasuren Davaa) and low-budget films made for domestic consumption. The only film I know of this year is “Passion”, an award-winning documentary about a filmmaker who travels throughout Mongolia desperately trying to get his film into local Mongolian cinemas. It won an award in Taipei, screened in Pusan and Dubai, and premiered in Mongolia in February, though it may not have met Oscar screening requirements. For a very interesting new article see here: http://film.culture360.org/magazine/in-focus/mongolian-film-the-power-of-passion.

69. MOROCCO has sent films three of the last five years (they skipped last year) and has the fourth-highest rate of Oscar participation from Africa (after Egypt, Algeria and South Africa). Morocco’s two main Film Festivals are an international one in Marrakech and a national competition in Tangier. The only Moroccan film in competition in Marrakech this year was “Mirages”, an interesting thriller about five men who apply for an executive position at a new company. The men are then abandoned in the desert (with four bottles of water) to decide who gets the job. The past two winners in Tangier both appear to be eligible: “Pegasus” (which also won the Grand Prize at FESPACO in Ouagadougou) is a controversial family drama about a pregnant young rape victim and “Fragments” is a feature documentary about a famous filmmaker. Among the other prominent films that have a chance from Morocco this year: “The End”, about a group of disaffected youth, “Love in the Medina” a romantic drama, “Majid”, a drama about street children, “The Mosque” a droll comedy about religion, which focuses on a village that refuses to allow a landowner to tear down a fake mosque that had been built for a movie, and “On the Plank”, a reverse of their 2009 submission, about two underemployed young women. Probably not eligible: “The Source” played at Cannes, but with its Romanian director, French money and international crew, it probably can’t rep Morocco. My prediction: “Pegasus” represents Morocco, followed closely by “The Mosque” and “Majid”.

70. NEPAL last sent a film nearly five years ago. Film production is up, but most films are flopping and made purely for local audiences. For a good article, see here: http://www.cinesansar.com/2011/04/flashback-2067-a-quick-recap-of-movies-released-in-2067.html. The Nepalis tried sending local films in 2003 and 2006 but quickly gave up on the competition. This year’s best bet is “Bato Muni Ko Phool”, a Bollywood-style musical about love and caste that was one of the only films that did well with critics and audiences. Unfortunately, it also failed financially due to the appearance of pirated copies immediately following its release. An Oscar submission might be a nice consolation, but I doubt they’ll send it. There’s also “Who Stole My Heart”, a rich-meets-poor love story in a similar vein.

71. THE NETHERLANDS usually does well at the Oscars, but they don’t have any really well-received movies so far this year- just a few average ones and a few out-there art films. Which will they pick? I’ll predict Ben Sombogaart’s upcoming “Isabelle”, which sounds very weird, but which could be really great (it hasn’t premiered anywhere yet). Sombogaart got the last Dutch Oscar nod (for “Twin Sisters”) and his latest film is a psychological thriller about an unattractive female artist who kidnaps a famous model for nefarious purposes. In second place, I’m picking “Always”, about the relationship between two adult siblings (including a gay older brother), and in third I’ll choose B&W film noir black comedy, “The Nobel Prize Winner” about a starving writer. If they want to go controversial, they could select “Majesty”, a fictional drama about the royal family, and if they want to go arty, they could choose “Code Blue”, a Cannes drama about an insane nurse. Aside from those five, there are plenty of other middle-of-the-road films- “Dusk” is an intriguing film based on a true-life murder that shocked the Netherlands, and “Sonny Boy” is the story about an interracial romance in the 1920s, but neither got positive reviews. “Penny’s Shadows” got better reviews, but it’s primarily a children’s film. Another unknown quantity: “Lotus”, which could possibly premiere before the deadline.

72. NICARAGUA made their first film in twenty years and duly sent it to the Oscars. That smart move got the film seen by a lot of people and put it on the filmmaking map again. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have any new feature films this year but hopefully they’ll be back soon. I'll predict "Karla's Arrival", a documentary about an impoverished single mother, trying to raise her newborn baby on the streets of Managua. It will represent Nicaragua at the AFI Latin American Film Festival. Another dark-horse possibility is “'El Último Comandante”, a Costa Rican film about Nicaragua which has a Nicaraguan co-director, Isabel Martinez (which is representing Costa Rica at the AFI Festival). Maybe one is worth a shot??

73. NORWAY has had a very strong year, with more than two-dozen eligible films. All three of their Best Picture nominees at the Amanda Awards are eligible (covering only six months of the current year) as are a number of exciting new releases coming out later this summer. The Film Experience, my favorite Oscar site, does a good look at the Norwegian race here: http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2011/6/23/norway-and-oscar-which-amanda-nominee-will-they-submit.html This year’s Amanda nominees are: “The King of Devil’s Island”, a well-made, big-budget drama about a reform school for delinquents (Variety indicates it’s too clichéd), “Nokas” (Amanda, Best Pic nominee), a thriller about a true-life robbery, and surprise nominee, “Tears of Gaza”, an acclaimed documentary about the victims of Israeli repression in the Gaza Strip. Few people probably think of it as a local film, but it's the best-reviewed Norwegian film of the year. The most fun choice would be “The Troll Hunter”, a mockumentary that has found quite a few fans in the USA and elsewhere, while “Oslo, August 31st”, about writer’s angst, got good reviews at Cannes. These five films will be challenged by soon-to-be released “Sons of Norway”, a punk-rock drama. There’s probably too much competition for dark horses like tragicomedy “Happy, Happy” or well-received youth films like comedy “Turn Me On, Goddamit!” or drama “Totally True Love” (which beat “Devil’s Island” for a Director nod at the Amandas). Noomi Rapace’s psychological thriller “Babycall” will probably be released too late (depends which website you trust). It will be a tough race. “Oslo, August 31st” is the clear favorite, but “Tears of Gaza” will provide some intense competition. I predict “Tears”, with “Oslo” second, “Devil’s Island” in third, and “Troll Hunter” and “Sons of Norway” rounding out the Top Five.

74. PAKISTAN is one of two countries (out of a total of 102) that have never submitted a film in my lifetime. I was going to remove them from the survey this year, since they haven’t sent a film since 1963’s musical-drama “The Veil” and since seem to spend most of their time destabilizing their region, while blaming their neighbors to the North, East and West. However, after a disastrous cinematic year last year (only 7 films were released; six flopped), this year has a significant number of interesting films, the highest-profile of which is “Bol”, a drama about the relationship between Sunni and Shi’a. With no profile on the film festival circuit, I somehow doubt it will coax Pakistan back into the competition, but one never knows....

75. PALESTINE sat out the competition for the past two years, and it’s so difficult to figure out what’s eligible since they don’t fully control their territory. As I see it, they have three films this year. Two of them have definitely screened in the Territories....”Port of Memory” is a docudrama about the Israeli evictions of Palestinian residents in the thriving port city of Jaffa in 1948 (sounds like a prequel to their 2008 submission, “Salt of this Sea”) while ”Man Without A Cell Phone” is a rare Arab slacker comedy, about the life of an Arab Israeli guy failing school and interested primarily in flirting with local girls. The third- “Habibie”, a starcrossed love story set in the Gaza Strip, has not premiered yet, but is billing itself as the only Palestinian feature of 2011. My prediction: “Port of Memory” gets the nod and “Habibie” gets selected next year.

76. PERU shows the schizophrenia of the Oscar voters. They got a nomination for “Milk of Sorrow” when their submissions in 2006 and 2010 were much better. I hate to predict the same movie two years in a row, but I’m guessing they choose minimalist comedy “Octubre” about a cruel money lender who finds an abandoned baby. It played at Cannes 2010 in Un Certain Regard, but didn’t premiere in Lima until two days after last year’s Oscar deadline. It faces stiff competition from: “Bolero Night” an all-star drama about a musician who barters with his soul and has to choose between love and success, and “Bad Intentions” (Berlin), a black comedy about a creepy, morbid little girl growing up amidst the political turmoil of the 1980s. Dark horse: “La Vigilia”, by a previously submitted director about a hostage who turns the tables on a female burglar. Unlikely: martial arts fantasty “El Ultimo Guerrero-Chanka”. Winner: "Octubre". Runner-up: "Bad Intentions".

77. THE PHILIPPINES began rating its films in 2003 with “A-Grade”, “B-Grade” and “Other” to encourage the production of quality films. A- and B-grade films get large and small tax breaks respectively. Every year since the ratings were created, they have selected an “A” film to send to Hollywood. This year, the Film Academy of the Philippines (FAM) has rated six “A” films and sixteen “B” films which will theoretically all be considered. The six A-grade films are “Ikaw Ang Pag-ibig”, a family drama, “Paglipad ng anghel”, about a young man who begins to grow wings after doing a good deed, “Rosario”, a melodrama about a woman’s descent from middle-class to poverty, “RPG Metanoia”, the Philippines’ first CGI animated film, “Senior Year”, a docudrama about a group of Catholic high-school students, and “Sigwa”, about a group of leftist friends during the chaotic political turmoil in the 1970s. Among the “B” films are a bunch of unspectacular horror movies, comedies and romances, and the only one I could see them choosing would be box-office hit romance “In the Name of Love”. Absent from the list is the FAM Best Picture/Director winner “Emir”, a super-size musical that was released too early. I see the two front-runners as “Ikaw Ang Pag-ibig”, by Marilou Diaz-Abaya, a respected director who has been selected twice to represent the Philippines and who is now battling breast cancer and “Sigwa”, by the prolific Joel Lamangan which has won the most awards. “Ikaw Ang Pag-ibig” won’t premiere until September, but it’s my prediction with “Sigwa” in second, and “Senior Year” in third.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:
MONTENEGRO, with only 600,000 people, is likely to send their first submission this year, and I predict it will be “Love Scars”, an omnibus film telling four love stories. It opened in May 2011, but there's also “Ascent”, a strange film about a writer who encounters a bizarre isolated and illiterate family in the countryside (sounds like the "Dogtooth" family) which will play out of competition in Sarajevo.

Others:
KOSOVO may wish to thumb their nose at Serbia and secure AMPAS recognition by submitting “Heroi”, a drama about a war hero trying to readjust to normal civilian life. The mountain kingdom of LESOTHO released its first-ever feature film, “Tears of Flood”, about the country’s water crisis, although they’re unlikely to enter this amateurish effort to Oscar...MALAWI has low-budget romance, “Thokozani”...The tiny island nation of MALDIVES, the smallest country to hold an annual Film Awards ceremony, chose “Happy Birthday” as this year’s winner. MALI could very well enter the race for the first time with “Da Monzon- The Conquest of Samayana”, a government-funded, battle-rich period drama about the most famous Bambara King in pre-colonial Mali...MOZAMBIQUE's film industry has produced their most acclaimed film, “The Last Flight of the Flamingo”, about UN peacekeepers in the country...PANAMA has “Following the Stars” a low-budget drama about the indigenous Kuna people. And PARAGUAY , the only South American film never to enter the Oscar race, has “Felipe Canasto”, a period drama set in 1800, in the aftermath of a war in which most of the male population was killed.

Best Foreign Film; 2011-2012- FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS, COSTA RICA to IRAQ

2011-07-20T22:56:00.001-07:00

Here's the next batch of countries....

26. COSTA RICA seems to be leading a Central American film renaissance. They submitted last year for only the second time, but they’ve released a number of films this year. The frontrunner is clearly the film I picked last year- “Cold Water of the Sea”- which was finally released in Costa Rica in March after winning half a dozen awards of the international circuit over the past year. It’s about a little girl whose tall tale of abuse has a major impact on her family. It faces competition from “El Ultimo Comandante” a film about post-war Nicaragua starring Damien Alcazar as an ex-general.

27. COTE D’IVOIRE has the only perfect record in this competition. They sent a film in 1976, won the Oscar and never sent a film again….They’re unlikely to enter this year as they’ve wasted most of the last six months in a ridiculous civil war trying to boot out the losing presidential candidate, who refused to step down and accept defeat. Their presumed choice would be “The Perfect Guy” (Le Mec Ideal), a romantic comedy which won Third Prize at the prestigious FESPACO African Film Festival in Ouagadougou. There’s also “Aya de Yopougon”, animated film based on a popular comic strip.

28. CROATIA’s Pula Film Festival is the source of all the Croatian nominees….This year’s awards will be given out on July 23, but many films have trouble getting released for months, like the film I predicted would represent Croatia last year- “72 Days”, a black comedy about a family trying to hide the death of a family member so that they can continue receiving her pension. It was released October 14, making it eligible this year, as is “The Show Must Go On”, a low-budget sci-fi drama about television after a nuclear bomb, which got quite positive reviews despite my dismissal of the film last year. In addition to these two, there are ten films at Pula (not sure which will be released in cinemas prior to the 9/30 deadline). The most prominent of these is “Spots” which booked spots in Karlovy Vary and Sarajevo, and is described as youthful thriller, but other contenders include “Lea & Darija” (which sounds most Oscary) about two rival dancers during WWII- a Croatia and a German Jew and two war dramas: “Josef” (World War I) and “Step By Step” (the Yugoslav Wars). Other contenders include “7sex7”, an erotic anthology, “The Little Gypsy Witch”, a musical-comedy about a Gypsy girl and Dalibor Matanic’ (Fine Dead Girls) “Daddy”, a psychological thriller. We’ll know more once the Pula Awards come out, but I predict “Lea & Darija”, followed by “72 Days” and “Spots”.

29. CUBA was the only major country not to enter the race last year, although I’m not sure why. They scored a single nomination in the 1990s with a gay-themed film and they could choose another this year with hit drama “Casa Vieja “, about a gay man who returns home and his father dies. In second place is a film by the same director- “Fabula”, a drama about two young people trying to make it in Havana. In third, “Ticket to Paradise” (Sundance), the most visible Cuban film on the circuit this year, an AIDS drama about disaffected youth in 1990s Cuba but the subject matter maybe too controversial? Two other films have a strong pedrigree- “Affinities”, an erotic drama about two couples on vacation, stars Jorge Perugorria and Vladimir Cruz, the two stars of Oscar nominee “Strawberry & Chocolate”, and “Chamaco”, a gritty urban drama shot in ten days, and directed by a two-time selected director. Another dark horse: “Long Distance” , about a woman trying to reunite old friends. Unlikely: erotic Little Red Riding Hood tale, “Ferrozz”.

30. CZECH REPUBLIC has a lot of good films this year, including new works by their last two Oscar nominees, Ondrej Trojan (“Zelary”) and Jan Hrebejk (“Divided We Fall”) plus surrealist Jan Svankmajer and a former President! Together, these three men have contributed more than one-third of Czech submissions since they became a separate country. Hrebejk has “Innocence”, a thriller about a respected family man who is jailed for a serious crime that he may not have committed. Svankmajer has “Surviving Life”, a surreal film (but not animated) about a man living both a real and a fictional life. Trojan has “Identity Card”, a bittersweet comedy about teenagers growing up in 1970s Czechoslovakia. However, all three of them are likely to beaten by “Lidice”, an acclaimed drama featuring three stories set against the backdrop of a Nazi burning of the Czech village of the same name. It’s supposed to be a great film and it’s a fitting representative, considering Czech history and Oscar’s WWII tastes. In second place will probably be “Identity Card”, followed by “Habermann”, a pre-WWII drama by a Slovak director about German-speaking Sudetenland, in third. Rounding out the Top Five: “Leaving”, written and directed by former Czech President and democracy hero Vaclav Havel, and “Surviving Life”. Unlikely but possible: the aforementioned “Innocence”, faerie tale costume drama “The Devil’s Bride” and a pair of wry comedies “Czech-Made Man” and “Nothing Against Nothing”.

31. DENMARK is the returning champion this year, after winning the Oscar for Susanne Bier’s “In A Better World”. Last year, they had so many films to choose from that “In A Better World” did not even get a nomination for Best Picture at the National Film Awards (The Bodils)! This year is just the opposite, and they’ll struggle to get a shortlist together. I predict that their traditional three-film shortlist will be “A Funny Man”, the biography of a famous Danish comic, unconventional romantic-comedy “The Truth About Men”, and the eventual Danish nominee- “A Family”, about a family dealing with the illness of their patriarch. It’s possible that one of the unreleased films, i.e. “Miss Julie”, a modern-day retelling of a Strindberg novel, slow-moving Cannes drama “Labrador” or animated film “Ronal the Barbarian” will displace “Truth About Men”, but I think “A Family” has this in the bag.

32. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC sent three films between 1983 and 1995 but nothing since. They had a good film year last year but didn’t send anything, so they won’t send anything this year either. Their highest-profile film is “Jean-Gentil” a film about a Haitian immigrant who loses his job teaching French in the DR, which has played at a few film festivals, but they also have Puerto Rican co-production “Love Child”.

33. ECUADOR has a half-dozen films coming out in 2011 which is pretty good for them. Their most likely submission is “Pescador”, by Ecuador’s leading director, Sebastian Cordero, in which a 30-year old fisherman’s life turns upside down when he tries to make some money off bags of cocaine that wash up on the beach. Runner-up: “A Monkey Among the Hens”, a historical drama about a 1941 dispute with Peru.

34. EGYPT will be difficult to predict. Last year, they had a strong lineup of well-known films but they shortlisted an obscure group I had mostly never even heard of. A lot has changed in Egypt in the past year…Some directors (e.g. “Yacoubian Building”’s Marwan Hamed) have fallen out of favor, and moves effectively banned by Mubarak appear to have secure the domestic distribution necessary to enter the Oscar race. A sextet of films have been playing on the Film Festival circuit this year, winning quite a few regional Arab awards. I think it will come down to “6,7,8”, a controversial film and arguably the best-reviewed one of the year, about women from different social classes who face sexual harassment in Egypt, or “Cairo Exit”, banned by the previous government for its depiction of interfaith romance but now awaiting release, about the lower-class residents of a Cairo suburb, which would be a symbol of a new Egypt. I predict “6, 7, 8”. In third place is “Microphone”, the most-awarded Egyptian film of the year, but I’m not sure its look at Cairo underground subcultures will have the same appeal. Less likely: “Hawi”, a minimalist look at life in Alexandria, “Lust”, about a upper-class woman living in the slums with her husband, and thriller “The Ring Road”.

35. ESTONIA has deserved nominations several times so I’ll forgive them the boring abstract mess they sent last year. This year, I count five eligible films- “A Friend of Mine”, about an old man trying to adjust to life after his wife’s death, “Gravedigger’s Daughter”, a drama about an 8-year girl growing up in dysfunctional family, “Idiot”, based on a Dostoyevsky novel, “Letters to Angel”, about an Estonian who returns from the war of Afghanistan after having converted to Islam, “Rat-Trap”, a political thriller and the oddly titled “Farts of Fury”, a rock comedy about a talentless band. I’m not sure any of these films has been screened. It will be a close race but the Estonians tend to like films with an edge, so I’ll predict topical “Letters to Angel” to beat “A Friend of Mine” by a hair.

36. ETHIOPIA sent a film last year for the first time. Ethiopia has a growing film industry, most of which are commercial comedies, romances and thrillers with low production values that cater to the domestic market. A shortage of cinemas means that films often have to wait a long time to just to get released. The only film I know of that has been shown outside Ethiopia is “Abay vs. Vegas”, about an Ethiopian-American in Las Vegas who wants to get married to have a wife to take care of him, and an Ethiopian woman who wants to get married to get a US Green Card. Neither person believes in love. Of their local features, the most promising looks like “Tizitah”, about a man educated abroad who moves to the impoverished Sidamo region.

37. FIJI could submit for the second time with “Pump Up the Mandali” a Bollywood-style Hindi-language musical set in Fiji and New Zealand. The film is about four poor Indo-Fijian boys who win a chance to compete in a talent contest in faraway New Zealand. Although Fiji tends to favor indigenous Melanesian cultural projects, Fiji submitted the film as their representative to the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards (the first time Fiji has participated) so they could send it to the Oscars as well.

38. FINLAND doesn’t have any easy choice this year. They have twenty eligible features this year plus some documentaries (they chose one last year) and none of them have made much of a mark. The best-reviewed is clearly “Le Havre” by Finnish auteur Aki Kaurismaki, a dreary drama about a man helping smuggled immigrants which won the FIPRESCI prize at Cannes. Finland selected Aki Kaurismaki films in 1996, 2002 and 2006, achieving their only Oscar nomination ever for 2002’s “Man Without A Past”. However, the other two films (“Drifting Clouds” and “Lights in the Dusk”) were withdrawn from consideration by the cranky Kaurismaki, leaving Finland without a nominee that could have gone to an up-and-coming director. The Finns may agree “Le Havre” is the best Finnish film of the year, but they’d have to be crazy to choose it. They could go with a different Kaurismaki…His brother Mika has “Brothers”, about a reunion of three half-brothers who have different mothers but the same father. Absurd comedy “Lapland Odyssey” won Best Picture at last year’s Finnish Jussi Awards in a weak year while popular Christmas action-fantasy-comedy “Rare Exports: A Christmas Tale” won most of the technical awards. Two upcoming films also have a chance at the nomination: “Iris” is a period drama set in 1890 about an 8-year old girl in the Swedish-speaking Finnish territory of Åland, while “Journey to Eden” is about two non-Finns (a Basque and a Swiss) travelling through Northern Spain. And if they want a documentary like last year, they could send “Selling the Silence”, about a family of entrepreneurs in frigid Northern Finland. The last contender is “The Good Son”, about a narcissistic mother who flees with her two teenaged sons to the family villa. Finland’s Top Five: I bet they choose “Iris”, followed by “Le Havre”, “Lapland Odyssey”, “Rare Exports” and “Journey to Eden”. UPDATE (9/6/2011)- The cranky Aki Kaurismaki has reportedly granted his permission for Finland to consider his film for the Oscars, saying that with a Democrat in the White House, he is ending his "cultural boycott" of the USA. What an ass. It appears likely they'll choose "Le Havre", but I'm hoping they snub him. "The Good Son" has got some good buzz going.

39. FRANCE is the country I've decided not to research this year. Every year I give myself one country off, and France is the country that has the most bloggers following the process, so I'll just predict "Polisse" and be done with it. "Polisse"'s big handicap is that it's not scheduled to premiere until after the deadline, but France has been known to do an Oscar-qualifying run in September to get around the rules.

40. GEORGIA deserved a nomination last year for the fantastic “Street Days” far more than it did in 1996 for “A Chef in Love”. Their film industry is starting to re-emerge from post-Soviet bloom, as they pursue European and American co-productions and try to turn Georgia into a prime shooting location. Lots of good films are around this year but it’s definitely to find Georgian release date, so I’m not sure what’s eligible. History-fantasy-thriller “Forgotten King”, the longest one-take film in history, would seem a natural choice, but it’s not scheduled to premiere in Tbilisi until November, but it’s well-positioned for next year. I predict they send “Salt White” (Karlovy Vary), which tells the stories of a middle-aged waitress, a refugee from Abkazia and a homeless girl whose paths cross at a seaside resort town. Runner-up: “Chantrapas”, an ode to filmmaking about Soviet-era censorship, premiered at Cannes 2010 and may be eligible this year (not sure) but it represented France at the Tbilisi Film Festival, so the Georgians may not consider it a “local” film. In third place: “The Watchmaker”, about a documentary being made about an ongoing murder investigation. Less likely: “I’ll Die Without You” about two young strangers who are destined to meet, “Rene Goes to Hollywood”, a surreal comedy by a previously submitted director, and “Born in Georgia”

41. GERMANY has selected one of their Best Picture nominees at the Lola Awards fifteen out of sixteen times since 1995 (the one exception was acclaimed Hitler biography “Downfall”, which got three nominations for acting, but was snubbed for a Best Pic nomination). This year, five of the six Lola nominees are eligible….the winner and the most Oscar-friendly- comedy-drama“Vincent Wants to Sea”- was eligible last year, but didn’t even get shortlisted. The others were comedy-drama “Almanya- Welcome to Deutschland!” , a comedy-drama about a Turkish immigrant family in the 1960s which won the Silver Prize, “If Not Us, Who?” (Berlin), a drama about 1960s left-wing terrorists, co-starring the amazing Susanne Lothar, which won the Bronze Prize, “Young Goethe in Love”, a biography of the renowned poet as romantic comedy-drama, Tom Tykwer’s “Three”, about a three-way love triangle, plus “Der Ganz Grosse Traum”, a 19th century soccer drama which won the first-ever write-in nomination for Best Picture at the Lolas. In addition to those, we must consider the films from this year likely to be nominated at next year’s Lolas….”Cracks in the Shell”- a German “Black Swan” is one possibility, as are yet-to-released films like Franka Potente’s new “Small Lights” and “My Life in Orange”, a comedy about an Indian-inspired cult. Or they a big film that stayed under the radar like “Baader Meinhof Komplex”. My prediction: “Alamanya” won Second Prize at the Lolas and got the best reviews, but Turkish-themed films like “When We Leave” and “Edge of Heaven” are among the only recent Germany films that failed to be nominated…..I predict “Three”, followed by crowd-pleaser “Der Ganz Grosse Traum”, with “Alamanya” in third, “If Not Us” in fourth, “Goethe” in fifth and “My Life in Orange” in sixth.

42. GREECE made this easy by choosing their Oscar nominee in early May. I’m not sure how that works, since there must be a dozen Greek films that are released between May and the September 30 deadline, but Greece rarely makes sense to me. They were nominated for the first time in more than thirty years for “Dogtooth”, which I thought was very original, but not very good….This year they chose “Attenberg”, another odd film, this time an erotic film about love and death, revolving around two girls living in a dead-end town. It beat out grim drama “Knifer”, which actually won Best Picture at the Hellenic Film Awards over “Attenberg”, and “Homeland” which played in Venice, about a dysfunctional family coming to blows over an in-family adoption.

43. GREENLAND has less than 60,000 people, making this huge island the “smallest” country in the competition. They sent a film last year for the first time- “Nuummioq”- which I managed to see in April. It was interesting, but a little out of its league here. I’m so happy to report that they do surprisingly have a new film this year, namely “The Voyage of Inuk”, a French co-production about a Greenlandic teen from a dysfunctional family.

44. GUATEMALA used to have trouble completing one feature each year, but 2011 has seen a surprising spurt in film production with a half-dozen films this year (probably a record!), including dramas, comedies, documentary features and even a zombie horror movie ! The Government is also beginning to pay more attention to film financing. The most-accomplished looking films are “Faith”, about a young priest and his forbidden affair with a 13-year old, and “Dust”, about a pair of documentary filmmakers making a movie about indigenous people after the civil war, but those probably won’t make the cut-off date, so I’ll predict “Capsulas”, about a young boy growing up with a violent upbringing with “El Regreso de Lencho”, a drama about a graffiti artist that was postponed from last year, in second place. Comic , musical docudrama “Marimbas From Hell”, touted as a “100% Guatemalan film” looks too weird….. Indigenous drama “Distance” looks too slight (only 70 minutes)…..Hit comedy ”Puro Mula” looks too silly….Zombie film “Curfew” looks cool, but unlikely to inspire an Oscar bid….And a new documentary from Luis Argueta (who directed Guatemala’s 1994 submission) “Abused”, seems to be making the odd statement that Guatemalan workers have the God-given right to ignore America’s immigration laws because…well…just because! I’ll predict they send nothing, but “Capsulas” would be their best choice for a return.

45. HONG KONG returned to their traditional Cantonese roots last year with intimate drama “Echoes of the Rainbow” and this unassuming film was, in my opinion, one of their best submissions ever.....This year, I think they’ll be more inclined to edge to their big-budget inclinations. I predict they send Jackie Chan’s “1911”, a Mandarin-language blockbuster about the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty by Sun Yat-sen (played by Winston Chao, a good actor who has unfortunately made a career of playing only Sun Yat-Sen). It’s got starpower (Jackie Chan, Zhang Ziyi, Joan Chen) and is premiering right before the deadline, which Hong Kong generally likes. Also premiering the day before the deadline is Jet Li's "The Sorcerer and the White Snake", a 3D fantasy martial arts fairy tale based on Chinese mythology. Not very Oscary, but it will premiere in Venice. If neither film is any good, then it will be down to one of a pair of big, splashy martial arts period epics, set (like 1911) in the early 20th century. I’d argue that Peter Chan’s “Dragon” (starring Donnie Yen and Takeshi Kaneshiro), has the edge over Benny Chan’s “Shaolin” (starring Andy Lau and Nicholas Tse). “Dragon” has slightly better reviews, received a midnight screening at Cannes, and Peter has repped Hong Kong once before. If they truly want a local Cantonese-language film like last year, I think it will be “Don’t Go Breaking My Heart”, by Johnnie To & Wai Ka-Fai, a romantic drama unlike many of their previous gangster film collaborations. Unlikely but possible: “Reign of Assassins” (starring Michelle Yeoh) is set in ancient China and was released in October 2010 and so will likely be forgotten among the other more recent martial-arts epics; “Lover’s Discourse”, a romantic omnibus. I would predict popular mystery “Detective Dee” might have a chance, but according to IMDB, it was released on the last day of last year’s eligibility cutoff, and “My Kingdom”, a Shanghai opera-martial arts combo, will be hurt by its Mainland director's drunk driving arrest (see CHINA).

46. HUNGARY almost had to cancel their annual Hungarian Film Week due to budget problems, but they pulled it together at the last minute, and the Best Film winner was “Adrien Pall” which played at Cannes 2010. The big film of the year however is “The Turn Horse”, a B & W by Bela Tarr which competed in Berlin and represented Hungary in both major Eastern European fests- Karlovy Vary and Sarajevo. “Adrien Pall” is about an obese nurse searching for her childhood friend. “Turin” is apparently about a man who beats his horse. Difficult as it may believe to be, both of these films are over two hours long! Variety calls “Horse” “an apocalyptically bleak statement about the futility of it all” while the Hollywood Reporter says of Pall, “this is the kind of film, despite its many qualities, that one has trouble envisioning people actually buying tickets to see.” Though either choice will assure Oscar voters to quickly cross Hungary off their list, the Hungarian Academy often sends these sorts of unlikable films. I predict that the horse weighs more than the lady- “Turin Horse” for me . Dark horses: “Retrace” (mostly in Romanian) about a Holocaust survivor visiting her homeland in Ceaucescu-era Romania, and comic anthology “East Side Stories”.

47. ICELAND will have nearly a dozen films eligible by year’s end….not bad for a bankrupt nation of 300,000! It’s interesting that almost all the films this year are directed by relatively new talent, including front-runner from Cannes, “Volcano” the feature debut from Oscar-nominated short film director Runar Runarsson. The film is a slice-of-life film featuring many of Iceland’s top actors, about a bitter old man, despised by his children, who has to deal with his wife’s stroke. Doesn’t sound exciting, but reviews have been good and it presumably takes advantage of Iceland’s spectacular volcano scenery. The chief competition is this year’s Best Picture Edda winner, “Undercurrent”, about a woman who takes a job on all-male fishing boat in response to a tragedy that gradually is revealed in the film. If it premieres in time, Baltasar Kormakur, who has repped Iceland three times since 2002, has a new film called “The Deep”, about the sole survivor of a shipwreck trying to survive amidst frozen landscape. Iceland has gone for dark comedies in the past, but “Polite People” (about a scam artist), “Rock Bottom” (about relationships and alcohol), “Either Way” (a 1980s road movie) and gay teen drama “Jitters” appear to be out of their league here. I very much want to see “Polite People” though.

48. INDIA goes with Aamir Khan films more often than not- five of the past eleven films had his involvement including five of the seven Hindi-language films (the other two starred megstar Shahrukh Khan). For this reason, I’m predicting “Mumbai Diaries” (aka Dhobi Ghat), a well-received arthouse drama (Toronto 2010) about Mumbai (home of Bollywood) that stars Khan and was directed by his wife Jiran Rao. “Diaries” has not been universally loved however and giant India produces nearly a thousand films each year, so they obviously have plenty to choose from. I wouldn’t count out “Adaminte Makan Abu”, a drama which won Best Picture at the National Film Awards over much more expensive fare, about an elderly Muslim couple seeking to go on the Hajj. This small regional film is in Malayalam, a language spoken by the Keralans of Southwest India. Three other strong contenders for the nomination include: “The Quest” (in Bengali), a large-scale drama about a renowned folk singer and poet, “Guzaarish”, a sort of Indian version of Spain’s “The Sea Inside”, which stars Hrithik Roshan and Aishwarya Rai, and “Seven Sins Forgiven” (Berlin), a thriller about a mysterious woman, which may get a boost due to some American involvement. Other possibilities include “Khelein Hum Jee Jaan Sey”, another sports-themed drama (this time about freedom fighters) by the director India’s last Oscar nominee “Lagaan”, slice-of-life artfilm “Autumn” (Toronto, Moscow), although India rarely chooses these, “Deiva Thirumagal” (in Tamil), about a mentally disabled man seeking custody of his child, “Stanley Ka Dabba”, a film about the lives of children at school, and “Shor in the City”, a crime drama. Unlikely but possible: “No One Killed Jessica” based on a real-life murder, “Traffic” (in Malayalam) and “Shaitan, both action-thrillers, and popular romantic comedy “Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara”, about a dream vacation. “Delhi Belly” is too gross for Oscar and anyway is mostly in English.

49. INDONESIA’s big film news this year is that most Western film distributors are boycotting the country over a tax law, which means no Harry Potter, Kung Fu Panda or other blockbusters in Jakarta multiplexes. The Indonesians rarely have any films that stand out internationally, but they do make some good films admidst a glut of horror films and teen dramas. This year’s most prominent film is the bizarre “Madame X”, an action-comedy about a transgender superhero who fights off intolerance. It looks delightfully transhy and fun, and it’s doubtful it will be represent the increasingly conservative Indonesians, but it’s produced by Nia diNata whose films were chosen three times, and it got surprisingly good reviews. Other films in the Top Five: “Batas”, by a well-known director, is about a woman volunteering in rural Borneo, “Hearts of Freedom” (Hati Merdeka) is a large scale war-drama about the war for independence, “The Mirror Never Lies”, about a young girl growing up in a Sumatran village has played overseas, “Under the Protection of the Kabbah” (Di Bawah Lindungan Ka'bah) is a lush period drama set in the 1920s, about a rich-poor romance. With no front-runner, other films that could slip through include cancer tearjerker “Little Letters to God”, melodrama “7 Women, 7 Hearts, 7 Loves”, and a few interchangeable dramas with cute kids (like they sent in 1998, 2007 and 2010) like “House Without a Window”, “Village Kid” or “Rindu Pernama”. My prediction: “Under the Protection of the Kabbah”, followed by “Hati Merdeka”, “Mirror Never Lies” and a surprise for “Madame X”.

50. IRAN is a fairly unpredictable country and their decision last year to change their national selection committee to include more government bureaucrats and less film professionals means we may expect more political choices. I’m always amazed that they choose to participate despite political issues with the US, and they have sent some fine films over the years, of which my favorite is “Colours of Paradise”. This will be their fifteenth year in a row. I see four main possibilities, although last year I should note that they picked a film I’d never even heard of. The obvious choice is “Nader and Simin: A Separation”, which won the Golden Bear in Berlin this year and also did fairly well at the National Fajr Film Festival, winning for Best Director, Screenplay and the Audience Award. It’s about an Iranian couple going through marital difficulties and covers a lot of topical issues, including emigration. It’s also currently in the IMDB Top 250 of all time. Its main competition is “The Maritime Silk Road”, a rare expensive period piece, about the first sea journey across the Indian Ocean, from Iran to India and China. “Silk Road” has the advantage of being more technically impressive and politically neutral. The other two dark horse possibilities are both religious films: “Crime”, a black & white drama with strong Islamic credentials about a man with a moral dilemma, which beat both of the front-runners for Best Film at Fajr, and “Kingdom of Solomon” another big-budget epic , this time set in Biblical times, which got mixed reviews but boasts strong production values. Movies by Iranian exiles or dissidents like “Au Revoir”, “This Is Not A Film”, “Dog Sweat” and “The Hunter” clearly won’t be considered. My prediction: even the mullahs don’t want to waste an actual shot at an Oscar- “Nader & Simin”.

51. IRAQ has seen a resurgence of cinema in its autonomous Kurdish region, and a few films get made among its Arab majority as well. So far, Iraq has sent two films by Kurdish director Jamil Rostami and two films by Arab director Mohamed al-Daradji. Neither man has a film this year, so some new blood may get a chance. I predict the Iraqis choose Arab-language “Qarantina”, a claustrophobic drama about a family living in abandoned house, over a series of smaller Kurdish dramas. In second place, I predict: “The Qandil Mountains”, a dark horse about the relationships between four ethnic groups in a mountainous region of the country. In third place, “The Singer”, about a man who is late to perform for a violent despot. Rounding out the Top Five are two Kurdish dramas “Red Heart”, a co-production with Norway, about two young lovers on the run, and “Mandoo” about Iranian Kurdish refugees. Although some of them may be disqualified for not meeting screening requirements in Iraq, it’s great that they have so much to choose from when I used to struggle to find one eligible film each year!

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS could send the winner of the Greek Academy Awards, “Knifer”, which was snubbed by Greece, but which has a Cypriot director…..It’s a about a angry young slacker who moves in with his uncle...GHANA's multi-lingual “Destiny of Lesser Animals” (in English, Fante, Twi and Ga) is a police drama about an illegal immigrant deported back to Ghana...

Best Foreign Film Oscar Predictions, 2011-2012

2011-07-10T20:49:00.001-07:00

It's that time of year again....Over the next few months, the film industries of the world will be choosing their favorite films of the year to compete for a place at the Oscars. Over the years, exactly 102 countries have participated in the competition, and here are my predictions for all of them. I know of course that only about 65 countries will enter, but ...Here are the predictions for the first twenty-five. Feel free to let me know if you agree, disagree or have more information from your country!

Last year, I saw 35 of the 66 submissions, and I've got a few more lying around here on DVD....A lot of last year's films were quite lackluster including the very original, very violent and surprisingly boring "Dogtooth".

Best of the 35: JAPAN's brilliant "Confessions"
Worst of the 35: THAILAND's over-rated "Uncle Boonmee"

1. AFGHANISTAN’s film industry is still in shambles, recovering from years at war including several when films (along with music and television) were banned. Despite that, they’ve sent films five of the past nine years. They’ll probably skip this year, but for completion’s sake, I’ll predict one of two low-budget action dramas- “Paiwand” or “Emaan”. Bollywood-style action movie “Emaan” is more likely since it’s been subtitled for a showing in Australia.

2. ALBANIA has a tough choice this year...Their two major films are made by foreign directors-“The Albanian”, the story of an illegal Albanian immigrant in Germany, opened in October and has won Best Actor in several festivals for heartthrob Nik Xhelilaj, who starred in two of the past three Albanian submissions. The director is German. “Forgiveness of Blood”, a drama about blood feuds, won the Silver Bear in Berlin (probably the highest-ever honor for an Albanian film) but has an American director and mostly American crew. Ironically director Joshua Marston was chosen to represent Colombia for “Maria, Full of Grace” in 2004 but disqualified for this very reason. With fully local credentials are “Amnesty” (Berlin), an arty drama with lots of sex but little dialogue, urban absurdist graverobbing comedy “Balkan Bazaar” (Sofia) and “Maya” (Shanghai) about a man who returns from abroad and falls in love with a local girl. The Albanians clearly want to send “Forgiveness of Blood”, but I predict they send “Amnesty”. For an interesting new article on Albania’s beleaguered film industry, see here: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/cash-crisis-keeps-albanian-movies-off-screen

3. ALGERIA has been very quiet this year….I don’t see that they have a really good option, so they may sit out this year. “A Few Days of Respite” is probably the best reviewed Algerian film of the year, but it’s story of two gay men fleeing Iran probably will keep it from being screened at home. “Taxiphone”, co-starring Bruno Ganz, about Swiss travelers stuck in Algeria got middling reviews, while “La Place” is a silly local musical-comedy which I hope can make this war-scarred nation laugh, but which doesn’t look very good. “Voyage to Algeria”, about a widow trying to care for her six children, looks great but hasn’t screened at home, nor has “The Last Safari”, about a cinema-owner who refuses to be put out to pasture. My prediction is they don’t enter this year, but I’ll choose “Last Safari”.

4. ARGENTINA , strangely enough, has no stand-outs this year. Six of the past seven years they’ve chosen a movie starring Ricardo Darin (2005, 2007, 2009, 2010) or Daniel Hendler (2004, 2006). They could easily continue that tradition with apocalyptic virus thriller “Phase 7” (Hendler) or inter-racial romantic comedy “Chinese Takeaway” (Darin), although neither has played at any major festivals…The Argentinians usually go to Cannes or Berlin for their films, making it more likely they’ll select “Las Acacias” (Camera d’Or and two other minor awards at Cannes), about a lonely truck driver, or “Medianeras” (Berlin), about two lovers who may or may not ever meet each other, and which stars Spanish star Pilar Lopez de Ayala. Other possibilities include violent Western “Aballay”, history drama “San Martin: El Cruce de los Andes”, “Argentina’s answer to Sideways- “Ways of Wine”, dull arthouse drama “Mysterious World” and a surreal comedy about a disembodied finger, aptly named “The Finger”. None of these are giving me confidence, so perhaps they’ll choose something released late in the year? Many of their top films tend to be released in the late summer (winter for them). My prediction for now: “Las Acacias”, followed by “Medianeras” and “Phase 7”.

5. ARMENIA has sent only one film in the past seven years, making them (along with Belarus) the cinematic laggard of Europe. I’m predicting the only Armenian feature in competition at the Golden Apricot Film Festival, which is “Sunrise Over Lake Van”, about an octogenarian who irritates his family by clinging to anti-Turkish sentiment in the modern world. Armenia’s submission was a documentary and I’m predicting the runner-up will be “The Last Tightrope Dancer in Armenia”, an award-winning feature documentary that won Best Armenian Film at last year’s Golden Apricot Film Festival. It’s about a 70-something couple who are among the last of the country’s renowned tightrope performers. I’m not sure when it was released theatrically in Armenia. Many of their other big projects are stalled due to financing. Other possibility: surreal drama “Don’t Look Into the Mirror” which I predicted last year, but which premiered in 2011; Unlikely: romantic comedy “Wanted Millionaire”, horror film “Rage”.

6. AUSTRALIA is becoming a more diverse society, and there’s been an uptick in ethnic cinema this year, with lots of films about the Aboriginal communities, as well as immigrant communities from China, India, Korea and elsewhere. Almost all of these films are in English with the possible exception of “Citizen Jia Li”, a story about a down-on-her-luck Chinese immigrant. One to test the rules: “Toomelah”, a dark and violent drama about a 10-year aborigine who aspires to be a gangster. It played in Cannes and requires English subtitles because the accents are so incredibly thick…but it is technically in English, so I bet it’s not eligible.

7. AUSTRIA has a quartet of contenders, including no less than four that played at the Berlin Film Festival. “Breathing” and “Michael” both debuted at Cannes, where “Breathing” won the Director’s Fortnight award for Best European Film. “Breathing” sounds like a cross between “Six Feet Under” and “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”, as a young teen in a juvie facility gets a part-time down at a morgue. It’s gotten excellent reviews, but not as much publicity as the controversial “Michael”, a creepy drama about a seemingly average, normal man….who has kidnapped a 10-year old boy who he keeps captive in his basement. The winner of Best Film at last year’s Austrian Film Awards was not favorite “The Robber”, but local comedy “The Unintentional Kidnapping of Elfriede Ott”, about the abduction of an 85-year old star actress, which opened the day of the deadline. Last, it wouldn’t be Oscar without a German-language WWII movie, and “My Best Enemy” fills the niche, starring Moritz Bleibtreu in a Hollywood-style thriller about Jewish art dealers and nasty Nazis. Also possible but unlikely: family drama “The Fatherless”. Last year, Austria chose an arty film (in Italian!) over more commercial fare (“The Robber”) showing that they choose what they like. I’m predicting “Michael”, which sounds like a Haneke film, will represent Austria, although I know it’s more likely “My Best Enemy” (2nd) or “Breathing” (3rd). If they don’t select “My Best Enemy”, minority producer Luxembourg may try to send it.

8. AZERBAIJAN is flush with oil money and has been enjoying a growing international presence in “fun” competitions worldwide. In 2007, they submitted their first film to the Oscars, and launched a bid to host the 2016 Olympics. In 2008, they joined Eurovision, which they won on their fourth try in 2011. Their three Oscar submissions so far- “Fortress”, “Precinct” and “Caucasia”- have been among the most obscure entries each year, barely registering on the film festival circuit. This year, they have three possibilities set in the recent past. The frontrunner is “Through the Eyes of a Ghost”, about a Frenchman who falls in love with a young Azerbaijan woman in 1990, circa the fall of the USSR. It was the first Azeri film to win Best CIS/Baltic Film at the Russian Nika Awards, it has French backers and is directed by Rustam Ibrahimbekov who wrote three foreign Oscar nominees- “Burnt by the Sun” (winner), “Close to Eden” and “East-West”. In second place is “There Was Never a Better Brother” (Karlovy Vary), a drama about two dissimilar brothers in 1970s Baku. In third place, controversial drama “The Dolls”, also set circa 1991, about a group of aimless young adults growing up around the time of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which finally opened at home in December.

9. BANGLADESH has become a regular fixture in this competition in recent years, and it’s always nice to see that their emerging film industry is willing to compete against the world’s best. Good luck as always to the Bangladeshis! They have two main contenders this year. In initially selected bloody, patriotic war drama “Guerrilla”, about the Liberation War of 1971 against Pakistan. Although production values could be better, the 2-hour and 20-minute film is considered in Bangladesh to be one of the best (of many) films about ’71. However, I now believe it's much more likely they'll choose Tareque Masud's "Runway", about an unemployed young man living with his impoverished family near a new airport runway. Masud, one of Bangladesh's most acclaimed directors, was tragically killed this week in a traffic accident while scouting locations for his next movie. Indian co-production “The Quest” was critically acclaimed, but probably has too much Indian input, “My Friend Rashed” (also about 1971) got mixed reviews, and much-anticipated “Meherjaan” (also about 1971!) was savaged by critics and pulled from theatres for its storyline of a local girl’s romance with an enemy soldier. Count on "Runway".

10. BELARUS hasn’t sent a film since President Lukashenka consolidated power in 1996. Coincidence, or do they just not care? I hate to pick the same film two years in a row, but nationalist war drama “Brest Fortress” is a big-budget WWII movie that has gotten good reviews AND been shown outside of the CIS (rare for a Belarussian film) and is about a patriotic battle of nationalist importance. It also got a Best Picture nomination at the Russian Film Awards. The film’s premiere was at the actual Brest Fortress in June, but appears to have had its mainstream release in November, after the Oscar deadline…So it appears to be eligible this year, if Oscar forgives the fact that the director is actually Russian…Will this baity war drama coax Belarus back into the competition? (They’re the only major European country to quit entirely) Second place: Belarus is famous for making children’s films and Harry Potter rip-off “Ryzhik in Wonderland” looks pretty and has been sold in Italy.

11. BELGIUM may have no functioning government, but it does have a lot of films this year from both linguistic halves of the country. They’re pretty certain to choose the French-language “The Kid With a Bike” by the brothers Dardennes, who have represented Belgium three times with previous slow and boring Cannes entries. “The Kid” is supposed to be one of their best, and it won the Grand Prize of the Jury at Cannes. Their nearest competitor (disease drama “Oxygen”) was released slightly too early to be eligible, so it’s pretty certain to be selected. In order, the other possibilities would include: “Bullhead”, (Flemish) a crime drama set in rural eastern Flanders and a trio of French-language films: “Les Geants”, a Bouli Lanners Cammes drama about two bored teenagers, “She’s Not Crying, She’s Singing”, about a woman plotting vengeance against her comatose father, and “The Fairy”, a quirky local comedy. Highly doubtful but possible: Kazakhstan-set Soviet drama “Beyond the Steppes” (French), bombing drama thriller “22nd of May” (Flemish), “Marieke, Marieke” (French), about a 20-year with an older man complex, and “Little Baby Jesus of Flandr” (Flemish), an odd drama starring acvtors with Down’s Syndrome. Out of the running: WWII drama “Rondo”, body-switch drama “Quartier Lointain”, romantic comedy “Madly in Love”.

12. BHUTAN sent a film only once, in 1999 with happy comedy “The Cup”. Their biggest blip on the circuit this year is short film “The Container”, which was shown at Cannes. They’re certain not to enter this year, but their biggest feature film of the year is “Bardo”, a supernatural drama about life after death, which won 14 National Film Awards in May.

13. BOLIVIA skipped last year, but digital cinema has meant that film production is up- about half the films are arty dramas and half are commercial features. The front-runner this year is definitely “Los Viejos”, produced by Juan Carlos Valdivia who directed three of the four films that have screened for a Foreign Oscar. It’s a drama by an up-and-coming director that looks at the years of military dictatorship. Two other dark horses are around: “The Game of the Spider & the Butterfly” focuses on a young girl from a family of sexual abuse, and “Sleeping Beauties”, which will premiere right before the deadline, is a crime drama.

14. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA has one of the easiest decisions of the year. There’s little doubt at all that they’ll choose “Belvedere”, a black & white film about a war widow living in a refugee camp with other women who are living their lives while mourning their husbands, sons and brothers years after they were murdered by rival Serbs in the 1995 Srebenica massacre. The director, Ahmed Imamovic, directed by favorite Balkan film of all time, “Go West” which inexplicably failed to rep Bosnia in 2005. Only competition is “Orkestar” by Pjer Zalica, which was reportedly going to premiere at Sarajevo, but which isn’t on the schedule.

15. BRAZIL is virtually without serious Oscar contenders this year...I don’t know if it was a mistake or not, but they didn’t even rate a chapter in this year’s Variety International Film Guide (despite chapters on Cambodia, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Rwanda). They don’t have any widely seen critical hits on the film festival circuit, and most of their most acclaimed directors have been quiet. The biggest Brazilian film of the year is “Tropa de Elite 2”. It was a box-office smash, a critical success in Brazil, swept the National Film Awards, and played at Berlin & Sundance. However, it’s a sequel (Oscar voters likely didn’t see the first one….) to an action movie and reviews haven’t been quite as strong outside of Brazil. Still, it’s their highest-profile film right now. Well-reviewed opponents include “The VIPs”, a light drama about a fraudster which swept the Rio de Janeiro Film Festival, “The Craft”, about an aging actress “Bollywood Dream”, about three Brazilian actress trying to break into Bollywood, “Me and My Umbrella”, a children’s film and “So Hard to Forget”, about a depressed teacher, will likely make Brazilian LONG shortlist (last year they selected 23!) but none of them have stuck out. “Central Bank Heist”, an bank robbery film, will come out in August. More commercial features like 1970s gangster film “Boca”and heist movie “Federal” got less than stellar reviews. My prediction: “The VIPs” beats out “Tropa de Elite 2” by just a bit.

16. BULGARIA had two films at Cannes and three films in Sarajevo (the Cannes duo + “Shelter”) but I’m worried they may not even be able to enter the race due to severe budget cuts at the National Film Centre that have wreaked havoc on films this year. I predict they send “The Shelter”, about a teen who falls in with a bad crowd due to his parent’s unintended neglect. It won Best Picture at this year’s Bulgarian Film Awards (the Golden Roses). Most people might predict one of the Cannes entries- “Ave” is a grim road movie about a man who meets a pathological liar (Ave) and falls in love with her and “The Island” is a grim thriller about a French girl with a Bulgarian boyfriend who reluctantly returns to his country for a romantic holiday . Neither one got great reviews, and “The Island” may premiere in Sofia too late AND contain too much English. “Footsteps in the Sand”, which was the likely runner-up to “The Shelter” at the Golden Roses should pip “Ave” and “Tilt”, a box-office hit featuring starcrossed lovers in 1989 Bulgaria, for second place. Rounding out the Top Five: “Ave” in third, “Tilt” in fourth, and “Sneakers”, about young adults on holiday, in fifth.

17. BURKINA FASO, one of Africa’s cinematic capitals, seems to be satisfied with running Africa’s most famous film festival, because they have only entered the Oscar race once- back in 1989. This year’s FESPACO Film Festival in Ouagadougou featured three local features in competition. “The Place In-Between”- about a bi-racial young woman from France returning to find her roots in Burkina Faso-is the most likely to bring them back to the Oscar race, since it has French backers. If they want a more “local” feature, they’d probably opt for “Awaiting the Vote”, a long-awaited film with significant local starpower, or alternately “The Weight of an Oath”, about the detrimental effect of Christianity on local religious traditions.

18. CAMBODIA submitted one Rithy Panh film back in 1994, but nothing since. Their film industry has never recovered since most of their actors and filmmakers were murdered by the Khmer Rouge regime in the 1970s. This year, I’m hoping very much they return with “Lost Loves”, a drama about a mother who watches much of her family die during the Khmer Rouge genocide. While many foreign-based filmmakers (including France-based Panh) have made films about the Khmer Rouge era, this is the first time a Cambodia-based filmmakers has done so. Also in the mix: “Kiles”, a colonial drama supported by the Ministry of Culture and Rithy Panh’s latest documentary, “Master of the Forge of Hell”, an extended interview with one of Cambodia’s most evil war criminals, who was sentenced to a paltry 35 years in jail (not life) for helping to execute thousands of men, women and children.

19. CAMEROON submitted one film way back in 1980. The only film I know about this year is “Strike Force” (Frappe de Force) an action drama about a juvenile delinquent who becomes a boxing star with the help of a woman he tried to sexually assault. Sounds appalling.

20. CANADA has a remarkable record recently- four spots on the shortlist in the past six years! It also show how frustrating this category is….The two films that failed to make the cut were the two best- “C.R.A.Z.Y.” and “I Killed My Mother”, although I admit that nominees “Incendies” and “Water” were fine films. (“Necessities of Life” and “Days of Darkness” were average but undeserving). I predict they give Jean-Marc Vallee a second chance (“CRAZY” was so great!) for Venice premiere “Café de Flore”, whose trailer looks like a surreal ghostly funny, scary, dramatic romance. Can’t wait! I think I’m right, but their runner-ups will include (in order): “For the Love of God”, a sensual religious drama about a nun, a novice priest and a young girl, “10 ½”, about a 10-year old juvenile delinquent, which lost Best Picture at the Canadian Genies (and the Quebecois Jutras) to “Incendies”, wry comedy “Le Vendeur”, about a widower who refuses to retire, “Gerry”, a biopic of a Canadian rock singer, and “Familiar Ground”, a drama about two siblings that played in Berlin. No Native American or Indian-language contenders this year!

21. CHAD, one of the Africa’s most desperately poor countries, doesn’t often have a film in competition at Cannes, but they did last year with “A Screaming Man”, about a 60-year old man in the capital who is angry and despondent when he is laid off from his job at a posh hotel in the capital. The film finally had a domestic release in a renovated cinema in the capital in January 2011, making it appear eligible this year. The same director’s “Abouna” was submitted back in 2002. There’s a good chance this will be entered this year.

22. CHILE’s films are flooding international film festivals and entertaining the French, but most are sadly not making any money at home. All the more reason to keep entering the Oscar race, for which they have sent a lot of thought-provoking films worth seeing. The four front-runners are by directors trying to live up to their acclaimed prior films: Cristian Jimenez (“Optical Illusions”) has “Bonsai”, a quirky drama about a writer, a woman and their doomed romance. It debuted at Cannes but has not yet premiered in Chile. Pablo Larrain (“Tony Manero”) has “Post-Mortem” (Venice), a thriller with a 1970s Pinochet backdrop, about a morgue attendant who falls for a stripper who later disappears. Sebastian Silva (dissed by the Chilean Academy for “The Maid”) has “Old Cats”, an intimate dramedy about an elderly couple, headlined by 90-year old grand dame Belgica Castro. And Andres Wood (“Machuca”) has “Violeta Went to Heaven”, the autobiography of a famed folk singer who committed suicide in 1967. Rounding out the Top Five is disaster drama “03:34: Earthquake in Chile”, about the 2010 earthquake. Other festival films (the pansexual threesome of “Drama”, intimate Pinochet drama in “Lucia”, immigration drama in “Ulysses”) and more commercial efforts need not apply. These five films have no front-runner and lobbying/popularity could come into play….I’m going to predict “Violeta”, with “Post-Mortem” and then “Earthquake” a vote or two behind.

23. CHINA, very surprisingly, doesn’t appear to have any major contenders this year. They usually like to send lavish costume dramas about Chinese history, but this year’s costume dramas, including Oscar nominee Chen Kaige’s box office hit “Sacrifice” and Chen Jin’s “The Warring States”, have gotten disappointing reviews, and “Beginning of the Great Revival” is such a propaganda piece that even China wouldn’t think of sending it to America ( “Founding of a Republic” was reportedly not considered, and that was supposed to be a better film). “Let the Bullets Fly”, a commercial action movie starring Chow Yun-fat, has gotten very good reviews, but many not be serious enough for the dour Chinese Academy. “Love for Life”, an AIDS movie starring Ziyi Zhang and Aaron Kwok, has starpower but China shies away from controversial issues. “The Piano in a Factory”, a drama about a laborer who builds a piano for his daughter” is simply not big enough to compete here (though if I were on the council, I think China should start sending “smaller” quality films instead of historical epics year after year…they make so many good ones). Ultimately, I’m going to predict they send “My Kingdom”, a period film about the Shanghai opera, or “Apart Together”, about the romance of two elderly lovers separated by the Taiwan-China divide. Ironically, these sound like offshoots of their 2009 and 2007 submissions. “My Kingdom”’s director was in a nasty (and well-publicized) drunk driving accident this year, so I vote for “Apart Together”. But really, I think the Chinese will have a hard time finding a film this year...

24. COLOMBIA’s film industry has rebounded due to clever co-productions and a number of box-office hits after several years of mostly domestic failures. It’s rare that Colombian films win awards overseas, and even rarer when those films are commercial successes at home, so I find it difficult to believe they’ll choose anything other than “Colors of the Mountain”, which hit a nerve with local audiences. It’s about a family growing up in FARC-held territory, where the kids lose their soccer balls in minefields and parents are kidnapped. “Porfirio”, a bizarre story about a handicapped plane hijacker, played at Cannes but reviews haven’t been quite as strong. Two unreleased films yet to be released sound promising: “Say Hi To the Devil for Me” is about a former guerilla drawn into a revenge plot, and “The Dark Side” is about a man whose girlfriend goes missing. The latter is directed by the director of the best Colombian submission of the past decade, “Satanas”. Hit office comedy “The Boss”, “Karen Cries on A Bus”, about a woman who is penniless after leaving her husband and violent Tarintinoesque “All Your Dead Ones” won’t come into play.

25. CONGO-KINSHASA is one of the world’s biggest basket cases, but they did manage to qualify one film back in 1997. This year, they have one of the biggest sleepers on the Film Festival circuit, namely crime drama “Viva Riva”, about the crazy world of crime in Kinshasa’s underworld. Impressively, the film has appeared at festivals worldwide and securing a limited US and UK release. Other than South Africa, no sub-Saharan African country has ever submitted more than a single film to the Oscars….”Riva” may break that streak.

NEWBIES??
BENIN's anti-corruption drama “One Step Ahead” won Best Actor at FESPACO, but has no scheduled screenings at home...BURMA's Best Picture winner this year was a film oddly called “Wings Flapping Sound of Flamingo”, but I doubt that will inspire their Western-phobic government to go to Oscar for the first time...CAPE VERDE has “The Girl with Big Eyes”, described as a Creole-language Cape Verdean fairy tale…..

Congratulations to Denmark!

2011-03-09T23:38:00.000-08:00

I was on vacation and didn't get a chance to post my predictions for the winner...Just for the record, I got it wrong and I think this was my first mistake in years...

I picked CANADA and their acclaimed "Incendies" at the last minute over my alternate choice, DENMARK and "In A Better World".

Incidentally, I've only seen one of the nominees thus far ("Hors-la-Loi" from Algeria, which is very good but very, very long), but I plan to see the other four as they trickle into theatres in April.

When I've seen about half the submissions, I'll post what I think DESERVED to win.

2011 Oscar Predictions

2011-01-24T11:48:00.000-08:00

I'm going to try my hand at the Oscar nominees in the major categories:

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Obviously, my favorite category....

COMPLETELY SAFE
1. CANADA- "Incendies"
2. DENMARK- "In A Better World"

PROBABLY SAFE
3. MEXICO- "Biutiful"

VERY VULNERABLE
4. JAPAN- "Confessions"
5. SOUTH AFRICA- "Life, Above All"
6. ALGERIA- "Hors-la-Loi"
7. SWEDEN- "Simple Simon"

UNLIKELY
8. SPAIN- "Even the Rain"
9. GREECE- "Dogtooth"

I think Sweden is too light, Spain is too high-brow and Greece are too weird to get nominations...But then, I never thought "Milk of Sorrow" could get nominated, but it did last year which shows this committee's tastes may be subtly changing.

I've seen 12 of the 66 national submissions, but none of the nine finalists....I'll only be happy if JAPAN's "Confessions" makes the list.

As for the OTHER categories:
BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Alternate: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (I predict an upset and that Eisenberg fails to get a nomination)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
5. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Alternate: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Alternate: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Amy Adams, The Fighter
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Alternate: Mila Kunis, Black Swan

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. The Coen Brothers, True Grit
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Alternate: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

BEST PICTURE
1. The Social Network
2. Black Swan
3. The King's Speech
4. True Grit
5. The Fighter
6. Toy Story 3
7. Inception
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. Blue Valentine
10. Winter's Bone
Alternate: 127 Hours

Let's see how I do tomorrow morning!

Final Predictions

2011-01-18T09:01:00.000-08:00

I just heard that the 9-film shortlist will be announced today, January 18th, so I wanted to get these out right away....

Here are my final predictions for the Oscar shortlist, in order of likelihood...Yes, I know FRANCE is one of the favorites, but I'm predicting it just misses the mark....

Lots of boring-looking films in the Top Tier (another Bouchareb war drama), but I am hoping against hope that more original films like JAPAN's "Confessions" and PERU's "Contracorriente" can push aside some of the more traditional Oscar fare.

UPDATE, 1/19/2011: Moving "Tirza" out of the Top Nine and replacing it (fingers crossed!) for "Confessions"....Adding Sweden's "Simple Simon", whose buzz is growing (too late?)

MY PREDICTIONS
1. CANADA- Incendies
2. DENMARK- In A Better World
3. ITALY- The First Beautiful Thing
4. MEXICO- Biutiful
5. SOUTH AFRICA- Life Above All
6. CHINA- Aftershock
7. ALGERIA- Hors-la-Loi
8. GERMANY- When We Leave
9. JAPAN- Confessions

VERY LIKELY ALTERNATES:
10. CZECH REPUBLIC- Kawasaki’s Rose
11. FRANCE- Of Gods and Men
12. NETHERLANDS- Tirza
13. PERU- Contracorriente

LONGSHOTS:
14. GEORGIA- Street Days
15. SWEDEN- Simple Simon
16. TURKEY- Honey
17. RUSSIA- The Edge
18. BOSNIA- Cirkus Columbia
19. THAILAND- Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
20. VENEZUELA- Hermano

SLIGHT CHANCE, BUT WOULD SHOCK:
21. SERBIA- Besa
22. SPAIN- Even the Rain
23. ROMANIA- If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle
24. ICELAND- Mamma Gogo
25. ISRAEL- The Human Resources Manager
26. AFGHANISTAN- Black Tulip
27. SWITZERLAND- La Petite Chambre
28. INDIA- Peepli [Live]

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- Asia

2010-12-31T12:05:00.000-08:00

Great news! AFGHANISTAN is in! After being disqualified, they were allowed in at the 66th official entry, and will be one of the final films screenings for the Oscar committee, which end January 17th.

Here are the seventeen films from Asia:

NO CHANCE IN HELL:

17. IRAN- "Farewell Baghdad"
16. PHILIPPINES- "Noy"
15. INDONESIA- "What a Funny Country This Is"
14. KAZAKHSTAN- "Strayed"
13. BANGLADESH- "Third Person Singular Number"

First, I congratulate all of these countries for entering the competition. These five may have absolutely no chance to make the shortlist, but it doesn't mean they are bad films....I hope to see all of them this year, and I would probably never even know about them if not for the Foreign Oscar race.

Most of these films come from countries with developing film industries (all except IRAN), all were made on extremely limited budgets, and all of the films suffer from one or more major problems.

The PHILIPPINES has selected, "Noy", a weird docu-drama that has gotten mixed-to-negative reviews, about a man from a poor and troubled family (fiction, with famous actors playing the roles) who becomes a documentarian for the presidential campaign of Noynoy Aquino (featuring real documentary footage). Middling reviews, and a plot requiring knowledge of local politics = OUT.

IRAN has selected "Farewell Baghdad", an anti-war film about an American boxer who joins the US army to avoid going to prison for murder....He ends up going AWOL in Iraq where he meets a suicide bomber. It's said to be visually interesting, but with a confusing plot, middling reviews and zero visibility on the Film Fest circuit. OUT.

INDONESIA has chosen a "heartwarming" comedy about an unemployed college graduate who tries to reform a group of child pickpockets. I've seen clips, and it simply doesn't have the production values or the gravitas to make the cut. OUT.

KAZAKHSTAN has been shortlisted twice in the past three years, and this year they've chosen the intriguing psychological thriller, "Strayed". A man's wife and child disappear into thin air in the middle of nowhere during a cross-country trip across the steppes. Some people like the film, but a lot of people hate it. Way too divisive. OUT.

BANGLADESH has the strongest film in the bottom tier..."Third Person Singular Number", about a liberated young woman trying to maintain her independence in a conservative society, was a major domestic hit and probably one of the best movies to come out of Bangladesh (I had the pleasure of visiting this beautiful country in October, where I picked up the DVD). Like Indonesia though, production values simply don't meet Oscar's standards, although it's an improvement from previous years. OUT.

GOOD, BUT OUT OF THEIR LEAGUE:

12. SOUTH KOREA- "Barefoot Dream"
11. KYRGYZSTAN- "The Light Thief"
10. HONG KONG- "Echoes of the Rainbow"
9. ISRAEL- "The Human Resources Manager"
8. TAIWAN- "Monga"

These four gentle comedies and one intense gangster drama are also certain NOT to make the Oscar shortlist. HONG KONG's "Echoes of the Rainbow" is a nostalgic look at a middle-class family living life in the 1960s under British rule, and what happens when their popular eldest son is diagnosed with cancer. It won a Crystal Bear at Berlin and got mostly good reviews, but couldn't even managed a Best Picture nod at this year's local HK Film Awards.....ISRAEL's "Human Resources Manager" is a droll comedy-drama about an HR Manager at an Israeli bakery who journeys to distant Romania to ensure a proper burial for an employee killed in a terrorist attack. It was the upset winner at this year's Israeli Film Awards, but reviews have been decidedly mixed. ISRAEL is popular with the Oscar committee for some strange reason (I liked "Ajami", but hated "Waltz with Bashir" and "Beaufort") but I don't see this getting through. KOREA's "Barefoot Dream" is a feel-good sports movie about an unscrupulous Korean entrepeneur trying to make money selling high-end sneakers to poor street kids in Timor-Leste. Although it is good at pressing the emotional buttons, it has not wowed the critics and is an odd choice to represent Korea. Unstable KYRGYZSTAN has sent "The Light Thief", about a rural man who "steals" electricity to provide to his poor village. It won Best Picture at the Eurasia International Film Fest in Kazakhstan, and will play at MoMA in NYC this week....It's supposed to be a fun movie to watch and Kyrgyzstan is rumored to have come close to being nominated before, but at a sparse 80 minutes and with 65 bigger movies in the mix, this "small" film is likely out of luck. TAIWAN's "Monga" is probably the best film of the bunch- a smartly made, visually impressive gangster movie about the rise and fall of five youths in the Taipei underworld. I hate gangster movies, and yet I loved this film. For Oscar though, reviews aren't good enough and it's simply the wrong genre to succeed here.

UNLIKELY DARK HORSES:

7. AFGHANISTAN- "Black Tulip"
6. INDIA- "Peepli [Live]"
5. IRAQ- "Son of Babylon"

AFGHANISTAN's film "Black Tulip" is truly a labor of love....The film was made under difficult, war-like conditions by an Afghan-American woman who then had to confront the bureaucracy of the Academy that at first disqualified the film on a technicality. Sonia Nassery Cole has also proved savvy at marketing the film, getting it an Oscar-qualifying run in a Los Angeles theatre, a low-key campaign for Best Song, a number of sold-out promotional screenings, and an amazing trailer. I can't wait to see the film but I've heard from a friend that the film is definitely an amateur effort...A fine first film, but probably not an Oscar contender.

IRAQ has been cited on many Oscar sites as a potential nominee based on its stirring, Oscar subject matter- a Kurdish grandmother and a little boy search for the boy's father amidst the rubble of 2003 Iraq. Again, it's hard to find fault with films from this part of the world which have to deal with so many problems just to get their movies made....However, I've heard that audiences believe the film is just not interesting enough to make the Top Nine. I'm sad I missed it at the Arab Film Festival here in DC...

As for INDIA, "Peepli [Live]" is a good film. It's a jet-black comedy where you laugh out loud and then feel guilty for laughing. A farmer deep in debt learns that his family will receive a great deal of compensation money if he commits suicide- enough to save the farm. When the rapacious Indian national media learns of his dilemma, they turn the simple farmer's village into a media madhouse. The film takes a while to get going, but gets better as it goes along. I saw it with Indian-Americans who say the film brilliantly satirizes what goes on in Indian government and media. Probably not good enough, but who knows?

DARK HORSES FOR THE ELITE COMMITTEE:

4. THAILAND- "Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"
3. TURKEY- "Honey"

Neither one of these film has any chance with the mainstream committee, but they might make the next round solely on the basis of their surprise wins at Berlin and Cannes, respectively....The elite committee may choose either or both films to avoid the embarrassment of skipping a major festival winner.

I haven't seen either film, but I think the elite committee should pass.

THAILAND's "Uncle Boonmee" may have won Cannes, but it's one of the worst-reviewed Cannes winners in years. This surreal, dream-like film with red-eyed monkeys, sex with fish and little plot is a film I'm looking forward to seeing, but not one that most people seem to think is deserving of an Oscar nomination.

TURKEY's "Bal" (Honey), the winner of Berlinale 2010, has a better shot. The story focuses on a 6-year old boy in search of his father, a beekeeper who has disappeared. The story is slow, the landcape is pretty and the kids are cute. Hard to judge how much weight the elite committee puts on awards (I think, a lot) but that Golden Bear may get it through.

CHALLENGER:

2. JAPAN- "Confessions"

JAPAN's "Confessions" is supposed to be one of the most deserving and brilliant films of the year. Its director, Tetsuya Nakashima, directed "Memories of Matsuko", my favorite foreign-language film of all-time. The film focuses on a young female teacher who hatches a plot of cold-blooded revenge against the pupils responsible for the death of her young daughter...and who it seems are now in her class. Reviews have been excellent. Can this film be another "Departures"? Right now, I'm guessing sadly no....I have the film ranked #11 and only nine films make the shortlist...But I have my fingers crossed....

FAVORITE:

1. CHINA- "Aftershock”　

CHINA's earthquake drama has it all. Amazing special effects (rarely seen in this category), Western production values, emotional drama and an engaging plot. The real star of the film is the terrible Tangshan Earthquake that killed hundreds of thousands of people in 1976, but the emotional story comes in the form of a woman whose twin children are trapped beneath the rubble. Rescuers tell her that due to the placement of the debris, rescuing one child will mean the likely death of the other. Great reviews and lots of Oscar bait here. The film got a US release which apparently entailed cutting a half-hour, but you can buy the DVD in NYC Chinatown, which I will watch next week.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 33

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: One....but then AMPAS changed its mind.....AFGHANISTAN's "Black Tulip" managed to survive the kidnapping and mutilation of its original lead actress, a dangerous film shoot in Afghanistan, and a makeshift cinematic run in Kabul to qualify for the Oscars. AMPAS originally refused to accept it because they said it wasn't selected by the official Afghan film body designated by the Oscars (who was it submitted by?) but it appeared on the screening schedule about two months after the official announcement. Good, because the films looks great!

Number of countries opting out: Most of the other 16 countries are not regular participants in the category....Pakistan hasn't sent a film in forty years! The most notable absences this year were last year's shortlister AUSTRALIA (which had no non-English films this year) and VIETNAM, which has sent films four of the past five years, and which announced that most of its best films of the year didn't meet AMPAS screening requirements. Also absent: SRI LANKA, which sent a film last year...previous nominees NEPAL and PALESTINE ..... plus LEBANON, MONGOLIA and SINGAPORE which have sent multiple films in the past ten years.

Biggest mistake? None were likely to be nominated, but MONGOLIA had a new Byambasuren Davaa ("Story of a Weeping Camel") film they could have sent, SINGAPORE's "Sandcastle" got good notices at Cannes Critics Week, JORDAN 's tiny film industry could have been buffeted with costume drama "Cherkess" and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES could have sent a film for the first time with multi-lingual "City of Life".

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many....Three with a decent shot....three more with barely any. The eleven others are out of the running.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Three films in three different Chinese languages (Cantonese, Mandarin and Taiwanese) plus one each in Arabic, Bangla, Dari, Filipino, Hindi, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Kyrgyz, Russian, Thai and Turkish....Two Middle Eastern films are multilingual....Kurdish/Arabic (Iraq) and Hebrew/Romanian (Israel)

Highest profile film: THAILAND's "Uncle Boonmee" hasn't gotten the best reviews, but it did win the Grand Prix at Cannes.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: CHINA's epic disaster movie, "Aftershock"

Longest Shot for a Nomination: IRAN's war drama, "Farewell Baghdad"...It's gotten very little festival play and middling reviews.

Number of Comedies: Two legit comedies....INDIA and INDONESIA, while HONG KONG, ISRAEL, KYRGYZSTAN and THAILAND sent comedy-dramas.

Number of Horror Films: KAZAKHSTAN's film is more of a "Twilight Zone" episode, rather than a horror film.

Oscar History: None of the submitted directors have ever found favor with Oscar, although four have previously competed for their countries, namely HONG KONG's Alex Law ("Painted Faces"), IRAQ's Mohamed al-Daradji ("Dreams"), KOREA's Kim Tae-gyun (the superb "Crossing") and KYRGYZSTAN's Aktan Arym Kubat (aka Aktan Abdykalykov- "Beshkempir" and "The Chimp").

Two countries have won the Oscar before (Japan and Taiwan), while six others have been nominated (China, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Israel and Kazakhstan) and one more shortlisted (Turkey). The other eight....no luck yet.

Number of Female Directors: Only two...INDIA's Anusha Rizvi and AFGHANISTAN's Sonia Nassery Cole. Congratulations to Cole, the first-ever Afghan woman in the competition!

Youngest Directors: 32-year old Mohamed al-Daradji (Iraq) is a few months younger than Anusha Rizvi (India).

Familiar Faces: Not many! Perhaps the most recognizable (and surprising) face will be Jack Scalia, who co-stars in the film from Afghanistan. Fans of Hong Kong cinema will surely recognize the two lead stars of "Echoes of the Rainbow"- Simon Yam and Sandra Ng- from dozens of other films. You probably don't know the name of Mark Ivanir, who plays the title role in Israel's "Human Resources Manager", but he has guest-starred on a lot of popular American TV shows.....Finally, you won't see his face in "Peepli Live", but Bollywood superstar Aamir Khan produced the entry from India.

Tough Choices: The toughest choice was probably for JAPAN, which had a slew of well-received films and no favorite. I think they chose wisely.....SOUTH KOREA turned down the favorite, Chang-dong Lee's "Poetry", which came in second place in their contest. ISRAEL's "Intimate Grammar" was the heavy favorite to rep the Israelis, until it went home empty-handed at the Israeli Ophir Awards....THAILAND also turned down their Best Picture winner this year, namely, "October Sonata". CHINA snubbed 3-time Oscar nominee Zhang Yimou's "A Man, A Woman and a Noodle Shop" and Chow Yun-fat's "Confucius", but that wasn't a surprise against blockbuster "Aftershock"....INDIA turned down popular hits, "My Name is Khan" and "Three Idiots".....Other films of note: "Au Revoir, Taipei" (TAIWAN), "Breath" (TURKEY), "Gold and Copper" (IRAN). As for INDONESIA, their toughest choice this year was finding a good film....

Controversies and Changes: No big controversies, although IRAN changed their selection process, allowing government bureaucrats a greater say in the selection than filmmakers, resulting in several critically acclaimed films being shunted aside for "Farewell Baghdad". BANGLADESH extended the national deadline after the favorite "Third Person Singular Number" failed to enter the race....After they filled out the paperwork, it was selected over the other two films that had registered on time. In CHINA, "Aftershock" director Feng Xiaogang said he made his movie for Chinese audiences and didn't really want his movie to go to the Oscars where it would lose, but that may have been false modesty.....TAIWAN originally chose "Hear Me", but they were disqualified when it turns out that they fibbed about their release date....

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Six, including super-hard INDIA. Also, BANGLADESH, CHINA, IRAQ, KYRGYZSTAN and THAILAND. I came super close with AFGHANISTAN, TAIWAN and TURKEY.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've seen the films from KAZAKHSTAN (B+), INDIA (B+), SOUTH KOREA (B) and TAIWAN (A-), part of the film from INDONESIA, and I have the DVDs here at home for the films from BANGLADESH, CHINA and HONG KONG. I'm dying to see the films from Afghanistan and China but my top choice is JAPAN's brilliant-looking "Confessions".

Last year's race: I did well, seeing 12 of last year's 17 Asian films. Three of them really deserved to be nominated, but none of them were.
My rankings:
1. KAZAKHSTAN- "Kelin" (A) An original, breathtaking, completely wordless work of art
2. SOUTH KOREA- "Mother" (A-) Fascinating slow-burn mystery/thriller...What a story! What an actress! What an ending!
3. JAPAN- "Nobody to Watch Over Me" (A-), an emotional thriller about a cop asked to protect the teenaged sister of an accused child killer ....Having lived in Japan for 4 years, I think it's a realistic look at the Japanese psyche.....
4. ISRAEL- "Ajami" (B+) Good multi-character drama in the vein of "Crash"
5. TAIWAN- "No Puedo Vivir Sin Ti" (B+) Strong character drama about a man (nearly homeless) who does his best to take care of his beloved young daughter.
6. TURKEY- "I Saw the Sun" (B) Good family drama about a Kurdish refugee family divided between Istanbul and Norway.
7. INDIA- "Harishchandrachi Factory" (B-) Slight comedy about the making of the first-ever film in India. Lots of energy and attention to detail, but slightly underwhelming.
8. CHINA- "Forever Enthralled" (C+) Beautifully filmed, slightly dull Chinese opera drama
9. THAILAND- "Best of Times" (C+) Entertaining but forgettable commercial romantic comedy about two couples- one old, one young.
10. HONG KONG- "Prince of Tears" (C-) Dull soap opera about an important topic- the anti-Communist witch hunts in 1950s Taiwan.
11. PHILIPPINES- "Grandpa is Dead" (D+) Somewhat entertaining but poorly made comedy about a large family mourning the family patriarch.
12. AUSTRALIA- "Samson & Delilah" (D) The opposite of "Kelin"...Nearly wordless and extremely boring drama about two aborigine teenagers who....well....do very little. How do it make the shortlist over "MOTHER"?
I couldn't track down the five remaining films, from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, but "About Elly" should be released on DVD this year.

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- Western Europe

2010-12-31T12:02:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year....

The Western Europeans have traditionally hogged the five nominations as a bloc....Nowadays, it seems to be just FRANCE and GERMANY that have the Oscar love....The Germans have been nominated five of the past six years....Despite being one of their strongest films, "Edge of Heaven", a drama about Turkish-Germans, was the one film that missed the cut....Will this year's similarly-themed Turkish-German film suffer the same fate?

Here is the line-up from Western Europe, including the autonomous Danish province of Greenland, competing separately for the very first time.

NOT GOOD ENOUGH:

16. PORTUGAL- "To Die Like A Man"
15. NORWAY- "Angel"
14. FINLAND- "Steam of Life"

This year's biggest Western European long-shot is more often than not the entry from PORTUGAL....This year's "To Die Like A Man" is a melodramatic film about an aging transsexual who discovers that she is dying....It's filled with Almodovar-esque melodrama and histrionics, drag musical numbers and a number of bizarre occurences. The film has its admirers, but almost everyone complains about its lengthy 2hr20m running time, overall reception has been mixed and the subject matter (drag queens, outdoor sex, breast implants) just doesn't seem like it will appeal to the committee. These two Scandinavians films are also sure to be ignored too....NORWAY has chosen a gritty, off-putting drama about a heroin addict whose child is (quite rightfully) taken away. A lot of people dislike the film and even its fans admit its a difficult film to watch. FINLAND's submission is a well-liked documentary about the Finnish tradition of saunas. The Finns are well-known throughout Europe for being a quiet and unemotional people, but the film tries to dispel these stereotypes by watching Finnish men (in saunas) to talk about their lives. The film was a major success in its home country and some of the themes are universal, but documentaries have a natural disadvantage in this category, and the film is too filled with naked bodies and naked honesty to compete here.

VERY UNLIKELY:

13. GREECE- "Dogtooth"
12. GREENLAND- "Nuummioq"
11. AUSTRIA- "La Pivellina"
10. SWEDEN- "Simple Simon"

First of all, there is no chance in hell that the larger committee will choose's GREECE's bloody black comedy, "Dogtooth", but I'm putting Greece in this category on the tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny chance that the elite committee will select it. But I doubt it.

None of these films really have much of a chance....GREECE, as mentioned above, is simply not everyone's cup of tea. "Dogtooth" may have won a lot of awards AND attracted interest at every festival it appeared at, but this gory fairy tale of what happens when two modern-day parents seal off their children from the rest of the world in a palatial mansion is simply not the kind of film that gets nominated. I can't wait to see it though and it comes out on DVD in the USA in January.

AUSTRIA and GREENLAND have chosen films that aren't likely to stand out in the crowd. "La Pivellina" is an Italian-language drama about a middle-aged circus performer who finds a 2-year old infant abandoned in a park, with a note saying that the mother will one day return. She and her family proceed to try and take care of the child. Many people like the film, but no one loves it. GREENLAND's "Nuummioq" is a beautiful film featuring the beautiful landscapes and fjords of this remote island territory....The film has a great backstory (one of the first feature films made by Greenlandic filmmakers....first director dropped out halfway after being depressed, but film was completed by another crew member) but this tale of a dying man looking for love has gotten better reviews for its cinematography than for its story. SWEDEN has once again chosen a youth-oriented comedy, this time about a socially awkward young man with Asperger's Syndrome who goes on a quest to find his brother a girlfriend. The trailer looks quite funny, and there is always a chance of an "Everybody Famous"-style upset, but I think this film is a little too silly to contend for the Top Nine.

VOTE SIPHONERS:

9. ICELAND- "Mamma Gógó"
8. BELGIUM- "Illegal"
7. SWITZERLAND- "La Petite Chambre"
6. SPAIN- "Even the Rain"

BELGIUM has selected a film about an illegal Russian immigrant trying to game the immigration system and stay in touch with her son after being detained in a detention center to await deportation, in the French-language drama, "Illegal". Pros: film boasts strong acting and a topical issue. Based-on-a-true story. Cons: "Illegal" is overtly political, occasionally preachy and maddeningly one-sided. Weak ending. Its "cinema-verite" style will appeal to some, but not to others.
ICELAND chose an autobiographical story of a filmmaker in dire financial straits who also has to deal with the worsening Alzheimers of his beloved mother in the gentle drama "Mamma Gógó". Pros: plot will appeal to filmmakers, and the committee may be charmed by a subplot in which the filmmaker awaits the Best Foreign Film Oscar nominations. Cons: critics say the movie is good but not great- it even lost Best Picture at the Icelandic Oscars to another film.
SPAIN chose "Even the Rain", a drama about a Spanish film crew trying to make a historical movie in Bolivia. The film, starring Mexican actor Gael Garcia Bernal, takes a cerebral look at capitalism, indigenous people and exploitation. Pros: good reviews, international cast and high production values. Cons: The film may be too smart for its own good.
SWITZERLAND chose French-language drama "La Petite Chambre", a quiet film about the budding friendship between a young nurse and her elderly patient. Pros: Screenplay and story are likely to appeal to the committee, which tends to like these inter-generational dramas. CONS: The film is a small and intimate relationship drama- the opposite of the splashy, dramatic films that have dominated the category in the last few years, and has generated little buzz.
Bottom Line: It's an uphill battle, but SPAIN's pedigree has the best chance of breaking through.

DARK HORSES FROM AFRICA:

5. NETHERLANDS- "Tirza"
4. FRANCE- "Of Gods and Men"

Two films set in different regions of Africa are both dark horses for the shortlist. FRANCE has chosen a true-story film set in Algeria, about a group of dedicated French monks who refuse to abandon their beloved monastery when threatened by Islamic fundamentalists. Despite excellent relations with the local community, the monks are held hostage and killed by their captors. THE NETHERLANDS film is set in Namibia, and is based on a famous Dutch novel, about a man searching for his missing daughter (with the help of a child prostitute, no less!) in Southern Africa.

France is perenially on the shortlist, and "Of Gods and Men" won Best Foreign Film at the National Board of Review and appeared at Cannes, but not every one loves the film, which most say is inspiring and contemplative but which some say is slow and overlong...."Tirza" has gotten somewhat better reviews and has the baity plot and beautiful vistas of a nominee. I'm ranking France higher based on their long Oscar track record

GOOD SHOTS:
3. ITALY- "The First Beautiful Thing"
2. GERMANY- "When We Leave"

GERMANY is golden with the Academy, winning nominations five of the past six years. This year's film is a drama about a young Turkish-German woman who goes back to Turkey to get married. After several years, she leaves the abusive relationship and returns to Germany, only to face ostracism and anger from her family for breaking with tradition. This film has gotten stronger reviews from American critics than foreign critics and the committee tends to like "issue-based" films, and German films in general, so this should have a good shot at making it through....Unlike Germany, ITALY's strong Oscar record is very much in the past. Since they won in 1999 (for "Life is Beautiful"), they've only been nominated once, and that was for the mediocre "Don't Tell", one of the most unmemorable Foreign Film nominees in recent history. They could have won this year with "The Man Who Comes", but chose a tearjerker comedy-drama about the relationship between a vivacious (but dying) mother, and her adult son instead...."The First Beautiful Thing" presses a lot of Oscar's favorite buttons, and seems to be the sort of movie that got Italy a lot of its nominations in its 60s and 70s heyday.

Germany and Italy face a lot of competition from their WWII opponents in France and Holland, and aren't guaranteed of a slot....but I imagine at least one of them will make it through.

THE FAVORITE:

1. DENMARK- "In A Better World" This epic drama has everything that Oscar looks for, and will be a real threat to take the Oscar home in February. The plot is difficult to summarize, but concerns the friendship between two boys from troubled homes in Denmark; one is a shy boy whose father works as an aid worker in Africa, the other the violent son of a recently widowed father. The film has universally positive reviews, a thought-provoking plot, issues of morality and revenge, and was one of three films on this list to net a Golden Globe nomination (alongside Russia and Mexico). Director Susanne Bier has been shown some Oscar love before ("After the Wedding") and has also made some Hollywood films. I think "World" is safe.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 18

Number of countries participating this year: 16, including first-timer GREENLAND

Number of countries disqualified: None.

Number of countries opting out: 3, namely IRELAND,
LUXEMBOURGand UNITED KINGDOM. Ireland didn't have any eligible films, but I'm a bit surprised by the absence of the other two.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: About seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 13. Three films are mostly in French (Belgium, France and Switzerland), two are in Italian (Austria and Italy), with one each in Danish, Dutch, Finnish, German, Greek, Greenlandic, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish. There's a little bit of Arabic (France) and Turkish (Germany) in there as well.

Highest profile films: The most well-known is probably GREECE's bizarre "Dogtooth", which won Un Certain Regard at Cannes last year.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Ooh...This is always difficult in Western Europe, but I'm putting my money on DENMARK's "In a Better World".

Longest Shot for a Nomination: More often than not, the biggest long shot is PORTUGAL, and this year is no exception with campy melodrama "To Die Like A Man"

Number of Comedies: Three- GREECE, ITALY and SWEDEN

Number of Documentaries: One. FINLAND

Number of Horror Films: Well...one, sort of...GREECE again.

Oscar History: DENMARK's Susanne Bier and ICELAND's Friðrik Þór Friðriksson have gotten Oscar nominations before....Bier was nominated in 2007 for "After the Wedding", and Fridriksson was nominated in 1992 for "Children of Nature". This is the sixth time Fridriksson is representing Iceland, and his semi-autobiographical film, "Mamma Gogo", follows the aftermath of "Nature"'s surprise Oscar nomination.

Also, the NETHERLANDS' Rudolf Van Der Berg previously repped his country twenty years ago, in 1990.

Every country has been nominated at least once before, except PORTUGAL, and debutante GREENLAND.

Number of Female Directors: Seven women representing six countries.....DENMARK (Susanne Bier), GERMANY (Feo Aladag), NORWAY (Margreth Olin), and for the first time ever, SPAIN (Iciar Bollain) have female directors. Also both directors of the film from SWITZERLAND are women, as is one of the two co-directors (husband and wife) of the film from AUSTRIA.

Now that Spain's Bollain has broken the glass ceiling, the only Western European country never to send a woman-helmed film is, shockingly, liberal SWEDEN.

Familiar Faces: The only major international star is Gael Garcia Bernal in SPAIN's "Even the Rain", but you might also recognize- Ulrich Thomsen (Denmark), Hilmir Snaer Gudnason (Iceland), Lambert Wilson (France) and Sibel Kekilli (Germany) in their respective national submissions.

Tough Choices: NORWAY seems to have had the hardest time deciding. Their selection committee had to meet several times, dithering between heroin addict drama "Angel", and critically acclaimed comedy "A Somewhat Gentle Man". I found ITALY to be the biggest surprise, turning down the film that I thought would win the 2011 Oscar, namely critically-acclaimed WWII drama, "The Man Who Will Come". Even more people were surprised by the loss of Goya-winning prison drama "Cell 311", from SPAIN. Also, FRANCE ignored whimsical Jean-Pierre Jeunet ("Amelie") comedy "The Micmacs" and Holocaust music drama (Oscar loves them all!) "The Concert", ICELAND opted not to choose their 2010 Best Picture winner, comedy "Mr. Bjarnfredarson" and FINLAND did the same with expensive patriotic war drama "Under the North Star". Happily, SWITZERLAND chose another film over "Film Socialisme", Godard's latest self-indulgent folly.

Controversies and Changes: Belgian immigration cadres have rightfully complained about the one-sided "Illegal", but that hardly counts as a controversy.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Six: DENMARK, GREECE, GREENLAND, ICELAND, NETHERLANDS, PORTUGAL, and I had the films from BELGIUM, FRANCE, ITALY and SPAIN as runners-up (all difficult!). I had ever heard of the Finnish film.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the overtly politicized and borderline offensive "Illegal" from BELGIUM. Honestly, I'm extremely intrigued by the love-it-or-hate-it buzz surrounding "Dogtooth" (GREECE) and also by the funny trailer of SWEDEN's "Simple Simon".

Last year's race: I did well, seeing 10 of the 17 Western European films, although I wasn't very impressed by most of them....My personal favorite was BRITAIN's lively, moving documentary "Afghan Star", which follows real-life contestants on Afghanistan's version of "American Idol".

My grades:
1. UNITED KINGDOM- "Afghan Star" A-
2. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy" B+, Original and clever
3. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire" B+, Solid and enlightening history tale4. ICELAND- Reykjavik-Rotterdam" B, Good but unmemorable
5. FRANCE- "Un Prophete" B, Very well-made...but OH SO LONG!
6. GERMANY- "The White Ribbon" B-, Not my favorite Haneke, but good ending.
7. NORWAY- "Max Manus:" B-, Well-made war drama
8. SWITZERLAND- "Home" B-, Original and starts off strong but loses steam in second act.
9. FINLAND- "Letters to Father Jacob" C, Slight, 75-minute drama
10. BELGIUM- "The Misfortunates" C, Well-acted but with unpleasant characters and slightly boring.

The shortlist should come out around January 15th....

Next will be the 16 nominees from Asia....

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- EASTERN EUROPE

2010-11-23T21:14:00.000-08:00

The films from Eastern Europe this year are not a very promising bunch....17 films are competing from the 21 eligible countries.....

ABSOLUTELY NOT:

17. ESTONIA- “The Temptation of St. Tony”
16. AZERBAIJAN- “The Precinct”
15. CROATIA- “The Blacks”

Better luck next year for these three republics, formerly parts of the USSR and Yugoslavia...Both AZERBAIJAN and ESTONIA have gone with surreal, metaphorical route filled with abstract imagery, while CROATIA has gone with grim realism.

“The Temptation of St. Tony” has gotten a lot of festival play (I saw it in DC) and “The Precinct” has somehow managed a tiny US release in California. Despite interesting (and strange) trailers, there’s no way either can contend for an Oscar. “St. Tony” takes a cue from David Lynch’s “Eraserhead”, and includes a lot of bizarre imagery including murder, dead dogs and cannibalism, but it has no linear plot, makes very little sense and manages to be boring despite its racy subject matter. “The Precinct” follows a photographer who angers his fiancée by postponing their marriage to take a job in Africa. The couple get into a car accident and find themselves in a metaphysical police precinct where the cops know every detail of their lives. Too weird.

Despite a glowing review from Variety, Croatia’s “The Blacks” is also guaranteed not to advance. This bleak war drama told in flashbacks looks at war crimes committed by Croatian forces during the 1990s. With dark lighting and unlikeable characters plotting to kill civilians and destroy the country’s infrastructure, there are as many people who hate the film as like it.

ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY:

14. SLOVAKIA- “The Border”
13. SLOVENIA- “9:06”
12. BULGARIA- “Eastern Plays”

The Bulgarians (shortlisted for the first time last year) have selected a bleak drama about two brothers- one, a recovering drug addict, the other a teenaged skinhead. The Slovenians have selected a thriller about a policeman who becomes obsessed with the life of a man whose death (murder? suicide?) he is investigating. The Slovaks have selected a fascinating documentary about an ethnic Hungarian town that was literally split down the middle by invading Soviets in the 1940s, dividing families and farms between Czechoslovakia and the USSR (and now Slovakia and Ukraine).

I’ve seen the films from Bulgaria and Slovakia, and they’re simply not good enough. “Eastern Plays” somehow won the Tokyo Film Festival, but it’s not an interesting film and I’m sure there will be enough people who agree with me who will keep the film out of the running. The only nice thing I can say is that Bulgarian production values have come a long way since the 1990s. The Slovakian film is fascinating- I liked it very much. But it’s definitely a flawed documentary whose main attribute is that it highlights an issue that I never would have known about otherwise. Certain elements could have been expanded upon (particularly the ethnic element), others edited, and while it is certainly worth seeing, it doesn’t deserve an Oscar. The Slovenian film is said to be a decent-enough film, but I’ve heard it begins to fall apart in the end- exactly what you don’t what a thriller to do. Better luck next year to these three too...

UNLIKELY FOR THE SHORTLIST:

11. HUNGARY- “Bibliotheque Pascal”
10. ALBANIA- “East West East”
9. MACEDONIA- “Mothers”
8. LATVIA- “Hong Kong Confidential”
7. POLAND- “All That I Love”

Coming-of-age punk.
Sado-masochistic sex.
Albanian comedy.
Three short films, consisted of two dramas and a documentary.
An Asian comedy made by Eastern Europeans.

These five films all strike me as very unlikely....None of them has any strong base of support, and none of them are universally loved. The dark horse out of these is really the Latvian comedy, of which there is nearly ZERO information online.

ALBANIA's comedy, "East West West" has a winning plot, and I thought it might be a contender. Circa 1990, an Albanian cycling team leaves the reclusive dictatorship for a cycling competition in France. As soon as they make it to Italy, they learn the government has been overthrown and they have to figure out what to do. Reviews have been positive but unenthusiastic.

HUNGARY's film, "Bibliotheque Pascal", is a visually creative film about an Eastern European woman who must recount the fantastical story of how she was trafficked into sexual slavery, in order to regain custody of her child. Sounds like "Big Fish" mixed with "Taken". People like it a lot, or hate it.

The MACEDONIAns have chosen a rather strange film called "Mothers". It premiered at Toronto and features a short about nine-year olds reporting an imaginary flasher, a slightly longer film about a man making a documentary about a small village, and finally a documentary about a serial killer. Too weird.

POLAND's coming-of-age comedy-drama, "All That I Love", has the best chance of the lot, but this likeable Communist-era story about a young man using punk rock music to join in the Solidarity Movement doesn't have enough behind it to make the finals.

LATVIA....Who knows? There's not a single English-language review online. "Hong Kong Confidential" is a fun romantic comedy-drama about six intersecting lives set in Hong Kong and starring an international cast from Hong Kong, Japan, Latvia and Lithuania speaking Japanese, Cantonese and English. Sounds like fun, but not really Oscary.....

VERY DARK HORSES:

6. BOSNIA- “Cirkus Columbia”
5. SERBIA- “Besa”
4. ROMANIA- “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”

These three Balkan countries aren't likely to make the finals, but they do have a slight shot. BOSNIA has the biggest name....Since winning the Oscar for "No Man's Land" eight years ago, Danis Tanovic has only made three films. His latest, "Cirkus Columbia", is his first return to Bosnian filmmaking since his Oscar win. The film tells the story of a man returning to his home village from Germany in the years just before the Balkan wars. ROMANIA has the highest-profile film, "If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle", about a jailed juvenile delinquent at war with his mother. Although it's won many awards and charmed a large minority of film critics, there are plenty of people who are bored by the film, its slow pacing, its long takes and are likely to give it low marks. Also remember that neither Romania nor its New Wave has ever charmed Oscar voters before. It has a slight chance with the Elite Committee, none with the large one. SERBIA's "Besa" (Solemn Promise) is an interesting multi-ethnic drama from what used to be one of the world's most multi-ethnic nations. During World War I, a Serbian principal is called to the frontlines, forcing him to leave his pretty Slovene wife to be protected by his uneducated Albanian manservant (played by a Serb). Their agreement is a besa and the relationship between the three forms the plot of the film. The film is largely an unknown quantity- No major film festivals, no review on Variety, making it difficult to figure out.

All of these films have a VERY uphill battle.

COULD GET LUCKY:

3. RUSSIA- “The Edge”
2. GEORGIA- “Street Days”

The Eastern Europeans have sent a fairly weak group this year....Enemies on the battlefield, Georgia and Russia, have a chance at the shortlist, although I don't think either one can make the Final Five.

As expected, RUSSIA has the bigger film...."The Edge" is a big, expensive film about the highs and lows of life in one of the Soviet Union's Siberian work camps after the deportations in the 1950s. It's filled with big trains, romance and high production values and it has an Oscary story....Good reviews but no one seems to be excited about it.

GEORGIA's "Street Days" is a fascinating, low-budget morality play whose plot reminds me of the brilliant "Klopka", which made the shortlist for Serbia three years ago. A man is blackmailed by corrupt cops who want to extort money from his wealthy friend's son. Faced with a choice of going to jail or framing the teen, this film is said to pack a wallop. Good luck to Georgia to get their second nomination!

VERY POSSIBLE:

1. CZECH REPUBLIC- “Kawasaki’s Rose”

I think Kawasaki's Rose will be the one Eastern European flick to make this year's shortlist. In the film, a popular anti-Communist dissident's life falls apart when it is revealed in the press that had been forced by the Czechoslovakian government to act as a informer decades before. The film has gotten good reviews and Oscar has picked Jan Hrebejk before ("Divided We Fall"). The plot sounds Oscary and it's not a strong year.....

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None that I know of.

Number of countries opting out: 4 former Soviet republics. ARMENIA and LITHUANIA submitted films last year, but chose not to enter this year, despite having some decent releases. Also absent: UKRAINE (“You, My Joy” will be eligible next year) and Europe’s last dictatorship, BELARUS, which hasn’t submitted a film since 1996. Belarus should have sent the handsome war drama “Brest Fortress”.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many….Two or three, with a few more dark horses.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 14 primary languages: Albanian, Azeri, Bulgarian, Cantonese (!), Czech, Estonian, Georgian, Hungarian, Macedonian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Serbo-Croatian and Slovene. Interestingly enough, the Slovakian film is in Hungarian. Lots of multi-lingual films….the Azeri film features some Russian, the Albanian film has some Italian, the Serbian one features Slovene and Albanian, the Bulgarian film has some Turkish, the Hungarian film features some Romanian and the Latvian film is mostly in Cantonese (with some English and Japanese mixed in).

Highest profile films: Probably ROMANIA’s “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle” which won the Silver Bear at Berlin.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: I’m predicting the CZECH REPUBLIC for the third year in a row (although neither of the last two got nominated!)

Longest Shot for a Nomination: ESTONIA’s surreal experimental film, “The Temptation of St. Tony”.

Number of Comedies: Two. ALBANIA and LATVIA, although ESTONIA and POLAND have some comedy elements.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. SLOVAKIA plus part of MACEDONIA’s three-part film.

Oscar History: The race features one former Oscar winner- BOSNIA’s Danis Tanović who won the 2002 Foreign Film Award for “No Man’s Land”, and two former nominees- CZECH REPUBLIC’s Jan Hrebejk (“Divided We Fall”) and MACEDONIA’s Milcho Manchevski (“Before the Rain”).

Albania’s Gjergj Xhuvani (“Slogans”), Hungary’s Szabolcs Hajdu (“White Palms”), Latvia’s Maris Martinsons (“Loss”) and Russia’s Alexei Uchitel (“His Wife’s Diary”) have participated in the Oscar race before, although Martinsons competed for his adopted country of Lithuania.

Eight of the seventeen countries have been nominated before (including Serbia, whose filmmakers got many nominations as Yugoslavia).

Number of Female Directors: None. :(

Familiar Faces: No household names...Japanese actress Kaori Momoi (“Memories of a Geisha”, “Kagemusha”) co-stars in the Latvian submission….Alexander Mashkov (“Behind Enemy Lines”) stars in the Russian one….Bosnian actor Emir Hadzihafizbegovic stars in his tenth Oscar submission (this time, for Croatia).

Tough Choices: The biggest snub was “How I Ended This Summer”, which was the favorite for RUSSIA, although the “one-film-per-country rule” meant an early exit for massive period drama “Tsar” and critical flop “Burnt by the Sun 2”. The other big snub was ROMANIA’s “Tuesday Before Christmas”….In any other year, “On the Path” would have been a shoo-in for BOSNIA...My pick for SERBIA, “The Woman With a Broken Nose”, lost by one vote and my pick for LATVIA, “Rudolf’s Gold” was also the runner-up….Others that missed the list “Three Seasons in Hell” from CZECH REPUBLIC, “Dark House” and “Little Rose” from POLAND, and call-girl drama “Slovenka” from SLOVENIA.

Controversies and Changes: No big stories from this part of the world. The best I can do is CROATIA, which picked a controversial film about war crimes committed by Croatian forces during the Balkan wars. RUSSIA was able to avoid a controversy when three-time Oscar nominee (and one-time winner) Nikita Mikhalkov pulled his poorly reviewed “Burnt By the Sun 2” from consideration for the Russian slot. Many had predicted that Mikhalkov’s stature and stellar Oscar record, and the fact that the first film had won the 1995 Oscar, would mean that, despite poor reviews, the film would rep Russia.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I did very well! 9 out of 17!! (Namely, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia) plus I had “Besa” as my Serbian alternate. …..However, I’ll admit I’d never even heard of the films from Azerbaijan, Latvia, Russia or Slovakia before they were selected.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the nominees from BULGARIA (C-), ESTONIA (D) and SLOVAKIA (B+) at this year’s EU Film Festival in Washington, DC, and was somewhat disappointed. There are quite a few intriguing films on the roster, but if I could only pick one, I’d choose ALBANIA’s “East West East” since I enjoyed Xhuvani’s “Slogans” and the plot (an Albanian cycling team is confused as to what to do when their government is overthrown while they are abroad in Italy) sounds like a lot of fun. Runner-ups for me: GEORGIA’s morality play, “Street Days” and LATVIA’s Asian comedy “Hong Kong Confidential”.

Last year's race: I only managed to see 3 of last year’s 17 films. Disturbing SLOVENIAn thriller (“Landscape No. 2”) was a flawed film, but it was also great bloody fun to watch, and managed to make the audience jump (B+). It was far better than POLAND’s high-concept dramedy “Reverse” (B-), which had a great idea but only so-so follow-thru, and ARMENIA’s boring 50-minute documentary, “Autumn of the Magician” (D). I hope to see the nominees from ESTONIA (DVD) and ROMANIA (Netflix) before the end of the year. Eastern Europe didn’t crack the Top Five last year, although Bulgaria made the shortlist.

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- LATIN AMERICAN, AFRICAN AND CANADIAN FILMS

2010-10-27T20:35:00.000-07:00

Well, Oscar accepted 65 of the 66 countries that entered the competition (poor Afghanistan!) and you can see the whole list here:
http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2010/20101013a.html

There are 16 films from Western Europe, 16 films from Asia, 16 films from Africa and the Americas, and 17 films from Eastern Europe.

Here are my predictions:

NICE TRY:

16. NICARAGUA- "La Yuma"
15. COLOMBIA- "Crab Trap"
14. PUERTO RICO- "Miente"
13. URUGUAY- "A Useful Life"
12. ETHIOPIA- "The Athlete"

By all accounts, these five films were made by filmmakers with a great love of cinema, and who want very much to develop the art in their respective countries. ETHIOPIA's "Athlete", a biographical drama about the often tragic life of Olympic gold medallist marathoner and national hero Abebe Bikila, is the first-ever Ethiopian film to enter the competition. NICARAGUA's "La Yuma", a drama about a scrappy female boxer trying to rise above her situation, is the first Nicaraguan film to be made in twenty years, and the draw of a rare local film has been a big success in the small Central American country. URUGUAY selected a spare 67-minute B&W dramedy starring a local film critic and former Cinematheque director, about the closure of a financially trouble Cinematheque in Montevideo. COLOMBIA's "Crab Trap", about a white visitor to a largely Afro-Latino village community, stars mostly amateur actors, while the trailer for PUERTO RICO's film resembles an MTV music video with bright colors, nighttime locations, and liberal sexual attitude packed together in a psychological thriller.

However, all five are way out of their league at the Oscars....Ethiopia and Nicaragua don't have properly developed film industries, Uruguay and Colombia are felt by some to be "boring" films, and Puerto Rico has gotten mixed reviews.... Constrained by their low-budgets (particularly a problem for Ethiopia) and a lot of competition, they should just feel proud to compete.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY
11. CHILE- "The Life of Fish"
10. EGYPT- "Messages from the Sea"
9. BRAZIL- "Lula, o Filho do Brasil"
8. COSTA RICA- "Of Love and Other Demons"

BRAZIL's expensive presidential biography, "Lula, Son of Brazil" has superb, high-quality production values but a hackneyed plot and mixed reviews. CHILE chose Matias Bize's talky romance, about a travel writer who returns home to Chile for a brief visit, where he ends up at the party of an ex-girlfriend....I loved "En La Cama", another (very different) talky romance by Bize. COSTA RICA's "Of Love and Other Demons" is a handsome adaptation of a Gabriel Garcia Marquez novella, about a noble-born girl who is sent away to a monastery after being bitten by a rabid dog, where she develops a relationship with a priest. EGYPT has been sending films since 1957 with no luck. This year's pick is "Messages from the Sea", about a socially awkward, university graduate who returns home to Alexandria to work as a fisherman, and his relationship with a mysterious local woman who may or may not be a prostitute.

I don't think any of these are well-liked enough to make the next round...BRAZIL has the style but not the substance....CHILE is too small.....EGYPT got good reviews, but it's a tough film to love and if "Yacoubian Building" couldn't get a nomination, neither will "Messages". COSTA RICA may crack the Top 20, but it's highly unlikely to make the 9-film shortlist.

SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY

7. VENEZUELA- "Hermano"
6. ARGENTINA- "Carancho"

Defending chamption ARGENTINA is the only South American country ever to win in this category...As they often do, they've chosen a noirish thriller starring Ricardo Darin (star of last year's winner, "The Secret in Their Eyes"), about an ambulance chasing lawyer. It's not as good as "Secret", but it has its fans. VENEZUELA traditionally has the weakest films of the eight competing South American nations (Bolivia sat out, so there are only seven this year), but "Hermano" was the surprise winner at this year's Moscow Film Festival and the film has gotten positive notices for its story of two soccer-playing brothers. They're both real long-shots this year, though it's nice to see perennial bridesmaid Venezuela so high up the list this year....

DARK HORSES:

5. ALGERIA- "Hors-la-Loi" (Outside the Law)
4. PERU- "Contracorriente" (Undertow)

Dark horses for that ninth slot include a propaganda drama from ALGERIA directed by two-time Oscar nominee Rachid Bouchareb ("Dust of Life", "Indigenes"), and a daringly original gay-interest drama from last year's surprise nominee, PERU.

"Outside the Law" has caused a lot of controversy in France for its portrayal of Algeria's war of independence. Even those that like the film say its jingoistic story borders on propaganda, and that might not sit well with the Oscar committee, even though they've shown they like Bouchareb. After all, I didn't think "Indigenes" was good enough to make the cut in 2007, but the committee elevated it to the Final Five over "Volver" and "Curse of the Golden Flower"....

"Contracorriente" is great, and I liked the film the more the day after I saw it, because I couldn't get it out of my head. It's an incredibly original film, about a man in a Peruvian seaside village who loves his pregnant wife and is active in his community, but who is also in love with a male painter who has moved there to paint. The love triangle that is created by this forbidden relationship is both easier and more difficult when the painter dies and returns as a ghost. It's a real dark horse. Can Peru make the finals two years in a row? I tend to doubt it, but we'll see...

REAL CONTENDERS:

3. MEXICO- "Biutiful"
2. SOUTH AFRICA- "Life, Above All"

MEXICO's dark drama, "Biutiful", starring Javier Bardem as a man who only has months to live and SOUTH AFRICA village AIDS drama are both considered favorites to make the shortlist.

South Africa's film got a 10-minute standing ovation at Cannes, and is the sort of sentimental drama that the traditional Oscar voters really go for....Another South African AIDS drama, "Yesterday", got an Oscar nomination with weaker reviews. A young girl and her sick mother face prejudice from their traditional community. It's one of the first features made in Sepedi, South Africa's fifth most spoken language. While a lot of people say the film is too dark and dismal, Mexico's "Biutiful" has the benefit of a strong Best Actor campaign for Javier Bardem, and it's famous names may entitle it to a spot on the three-film shortlist from the elite committee even if it's too much of a downer for the big committee.

Both films stand a good chance with both.

SAFE BET
1. CANADA- "Incendies"

Two Canadian twins of Lebanese descent- a boy and a girl- learn after their mother's death that they have a long-lost brother who was somehow left behind in Lebanon. This movie, based on an acclaimed play, has great reviews, positive buzz, and comes from a country that the Oscar committee has really liked recently.

It's in.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 8 from North America, 9 from South America and 11 from Africa

Number of countries participating this year: 16, including a first-time entrant from Ethiopia.

Number of countries disqualified: None that I know of, although I heard a rumor that JAMAICA lobbied to send a film in Jamaican Creole and was told it counted as English, even though it required subtitles in the US.

Number of countries opting out: 13, but nine of those have only entered films once or twice. The most surprising absentees were BOLIVIA, CUBA and MOROCCO, which have become regular participants in recent years. Cuba had quite a few films this year, and I was looking forward to seeing both of Bolivia’s front-runners, “Red, Yellow, Green” and the claustrophobic thriller “The Elevator”. Also absent: CHAD didn’t send “The Screaming Man” (I’m guessing it never played at home), DOMINICAN REPUBLIC , which had Michelle Rodriguez's well-made historical drama "Tropic of Blood" and PANAMA chose not to debut in the Oscar competition with clever local comedy “Chance”.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Three with a realistic shot, three with an outside chance.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Six. Ten films are in Spanish, two films are in a combination of French and Arabic, plus one each in Amharic (Ethiopia), Arabic (Egypt), Portuguese (Brazil) and the obscure Sepedi (South Africa)

Highest profile films: MEXICO's “Biutiful”, directed by Oscar nominee Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu and starring Oscar winner Javier Bardem takes first prize, followed by the much buzzed-about film from Canada, “Incendies”.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: CANADA for “Incendies”

Longest Shot for a Nomination: NICARAGUA for their earnest boxing drama “La Yuma”.

Number of Comedies: Only URUGUAY, one of the only countries in the world that usually sends comedies to this competition.

Oscar History: Mexico’s Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu was nominated for Best Foreign Film (Amores Perros), as well as Best Picture and Best Director (Babel). Rachid Bouchareb is only 51, but he has represented Algeria four times, garnering an impressive two Foreign Oscar nominations for Dust of Life and Indigenes. Brazil’s Fabio Barreto (now sadly comatose as a result of a car accident) got a nomination in 1997 for O Quatrilho. Argentina’s Pablo Trapero (2008), Chile’s Matias Bize (2006), Canada’s Denis Villeneuve (1997, 1998, 2000), Egypt’s Daoud Abdel Sayed (1994) and South Africa’s Oliver Schmitz (1989) have all represented their countries in the Oscar race before.

Four of the sixteen countries have won a Foreign Oscar (Algeria, Argentina, Canada and South Africa), while five others have been nominated (Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Puerto Rico).

Number of Female Directors: Two directors, both making their feature debuts, and both representing Central American countries- Hilda Hidalgo (COSTA RICA) and Florence Jaugey (a French-born director representing NICARAGUA).

Familiar Faces: The most familiar face is obviously Javier Bardem, as a dying man in Mexico’s “Biutiful”, followed by Ricardo Darin in Argentina’s “Carancho”. Less recognizable are Santiago Cabrera (Heroes) in Chile’s “The Life of Fish”, Remy Girard (Remy in Canada’s sole Oscar winner, “Barbarian Invasions”) in Canada’s “Incendies” and excellent Mexican character actor Damián Alcázar in Costa Rica’s “Of Love and Other Demons”. If you remember “Indigenes”, you’ll recognize French actors Roschdy Zem, Jamel Debbouze and Sami Bouajila who reunite in Algeria’s “Hors-la-Loi”.

Tough Choices: MEXICO apparently had the toughest decision. They first announced a seven-film shortlist, which was later expanded to ten and then twelve, including Diego Luna’s “Abel”, which many predicted would win the nomination. PERU was expected to choose foundling drama “Octubre”, but wisely went with “Undertow” instead. URUGUAY dithered until the late minute, with gay drama “Leo’s Room” unfortunately finishing as runner-up. Most Oscar prognosticators felt Xavier Dolan’s “Heartbeats” was a shoo-in to represent CANADA...until “Incendies” took Toronto by storm a few weeks before the deadline. EGYPT surprised when none of the frontrunners appeared on a four-film shortlist, including “The Traveller”, starring Omar Sharif and funded by the Ministry of Culture. PUERTO RICO's Fernando Allende was noticeably perturbed when his period drama “Maria” was passed up for edgy thriller “Miente”.

Controversies and Changes: BRAZIL caused the only minor controversy when they selected an expensive biography of their popular President a few weeks before his designated successor ran for election. The film, though well made, was a critical and box-office disappointment. An official poll noted that more than 70% of Brazilians thought the country should choose state-of-the-art sci-fi film “Nosso Lar”. Some felt the decision was politically motivated, while others said the jury may have felt sympathy for acclaimed director Fabio Barreto who has been unconscious for nearly a year since a terrible car accident. No other major controversies, although COSTA RICA's film is a majority Colombian production….

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Five: Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela, although I also predicted “Of Love and Other Demons” for Colombia.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve seen the nominees from Peru (A-) and Colombia (C-). I’m intrigued by the trailer of PUERTO RICO's trippy psychological thriller “Miente”, so I’d have to say that’s my first choice, followed by Canada’s “Incendies”.

Last year's race: I saw ten of last year’s 14 films- The best was Argentina's Oscar winner “The Secret in Their Eyes” (A), followed closely by Canada’s “I Killed My Mother” (A-), South Africa’s “White Wedding” (B+), Uruguay’s “Bad Day to Go Fishing” (B+), Bolivia’s “Zona Sur” (B), Mexico's "Backyard" (B), Morocco’s “Casanegra” (B-), Colombia's "The Wind Journeys" (C+), Chile’s “Dawson, Isla 10” (C) and “Fallen Gods”, the lackluster entry from Cuba (D+). I hope to see "Milk of Sorrow", the Oscar-nominated entry from Peru soon.

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2011- POLAND to VIETNAM

2010-07-31T21:11:00.000-07:00

Here's the last tranche of my predictions. I'd like to call special attention to the section on my former home country of THAILAND. I'm predicting "Uncle Boonmee" like everyone else, but this is one of the predictions I am LEAST confident about. Deep inside, I think Thailand will ignore the Palme d'Or winner and go with royal epic "King Naresuan III". I may yet change my mind, but I'm leaving Boonmee for now.

76. POLAND has a strong slate this year, and a lot of quality films to choose from, mostly set during the “bad old days” of Communism. My guess is “Dark House”, on the basis of its strong reviews from audiences and critics alike. It’s a thriller/murder mystery telling two related stories (one in the 70s, one in the 80s) at a remote farm in the mountains of Poland. Two other films are going to be tough to beat; namely, “All That I Love”, an acclaimed youth drama about a teen punk band set against the background of the Solidarity Movement and “Little Rose”, about the uneducated moll of a high-ranking secret policeman who is sent to spy on a Jewish dissident writer. “Little Rose” should come second since it won the Gdynia Film Festival. Rounding out the top five films are “Mother Teresa of Cats”, about a gruesome case of matricide, and “Venice”, about a boy whose family trip to Venice gets derailed to the Polish countryside as a result of WWII. That said, Poland often likes to choose a film released right before the cutoff date, which means they could select a new film (“Teresa” is one of these) that I don’t know about. Other dark horses: “General Nil”, a bio-drama about an acclaimed general who fought against the Nazis and Communists (but which is supposed to be really boring), “Father, Son and Holy Cow”, a comedy about a farm animal with a taste for classical music and human trafficking drama “Between Two Fires”.

77. PORTUGAL, unlikely ALL of their fellow Western European nations (bar little Luxembourg, who has only been entering the competition since 1997) has never gotten an Oscar nomination, mostly because they send abstract, arty films that nobody likes, including Portuguese domestic audiences. Perhaps it’s because they were neutral during WWII and they don’t have any Holocaust movies. That will change this year with “The Consul of Bordeaux”- a Schindler's List-esque true story about the moral dilemma of a consul in neutral Portugal faced with Jewish refugees trying to escape to the New World. Unfortunately for Portugal, I think it won’t premiere in time...Maybe next year. This year, Portugal has the usual crop of obscure, abstract films. The highest-profile one is “The Strange Case of Angelica”, a surreal tale about a photographer hired to snap the final photos of a dead girl, directed by prolific 101-year old Manoel de Oliveira. He was selected five times in the 1990s, but only twice since then. Other Portuguese films with a chance: “Civil War”, about a shy boy at the beach in the 1980s, “How to Draw a Perfect Circle”, about incest among two rich siblings, “The Last Flight of the Flamingo”, about UN peacekeepers in Mozambique, “The Portuguese Nun”, about a French actress obsessed with a nun, “To Die Like A Man”, about the life and death of a transsexual, and “Twist of Fate”, about a cuckolded husband. My picks: the surprise selection of “To Die Like A Man”, which has gotten the best reviews, followed by “Angelica” and “The Portuguese Nun”.

78. PUERTO RICO is almost certain to choose “Maria”, an epic love story and a remake of a classic film. Set in the year 1800 amid lush plantations and Spanish colonial rule, it’s directed by the star of the 1970 version. Most Puerto Rican films this year seem to involve doomsday scenarios caused by zombies (“Barricada”, “Cannabis 2”) or disease (“Caos”). Dark horses: “The Orphanage Cafra”, which tells interlocking stories and “America”, a woman-in-jeopardy drama set in NYC and co-starring Edward James Olmos (though neither one may premiere before the deadline), as well as the aforementioned thriller “Caos”, which is probably the biggest film of the year.

79. ROMANIA, unlike almost all of its Eastern European cohorts, has never advanced to the next round. That said, the “Romanian New Wave” is hot on the festival circuit, and they have lots of good films. Their most likely choice this year is “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”, the Silver Bear winner at Berlinale. It’s about a juvenile delinquent about to be released from jail, who confronts the mother who he believes ruined his life. Reviews have been positive but divisive- I’m not sure it’s the best decision, but Romania usually picks the obvious choice. Also very likely: black comedy, “Medal of Honor”, about a senior citizen whose life changes in the post-Communist era when he wins a medal for service in WWII that he doesn’t remember earning. It’s opening on the last possible day in Romania. In third place: “Portrait of the Fighter as a Young Man”, a big-scale war drama about the resistance movement to the Communists. In fourth place: “Tuesday After Christmas”, about a man trying to choose between his long-time wife and his passionate mistress. In fifth: “Europolis”, about a woman and her son going to France to pick up an inheritance. Among the other possibilities: “Morgen” (Locarno), about a security guard who discovers an illegal Kurdish immigrant, “Aurora” (Cannes), a 3-hour film about a family living in a neighborhood with a serial killer, “Francesca” (Venice), about a woman emigrating to Italy, and the one I personally most want to see- “Hello! How Are You?”, Romania’s first romantic comedy in nearly twenty years, about two unhappily married people who unknowingly “meet each other” online. As for French-language “The Concert”, and “Katalin Varga”, directed by an Englishman, I think they’d prefer having a 100% Romanian effort.

80. RUSSIA - Russia’s nominee was long thought to be a shoo-in. “Burnt by the Sun 2” was a long-awaited, massively expensive production by Nikita Mikhalkov- one of Russia’s favorite directors (submitted four times) and one of Oscar’s favorite foreign directors (an astonishing two nominations and one win in this category) and it was the sequel to Russia’s last winning film in this category. Unfortunately, the film was a flop and nobody inside or outside Russia has many positive things to say about it. There’s a slight chance Russia may send it anyway, but odds are against it. The most popular movie of the year is probably “What Women Want”, a warmly received comedy about four buddies on a road trip, but the dour Russians usually want something with more pathos. I think the two top contenders are “How I Ended This Summer”,a psychological thriller about two men stationed alone on a remote island outpost in the remote Arctic region of Chukotka (and probably the biggest Russian hit on the festival circuit this year), and last year’s costume drama, “Tsar”, the epic story of Ivan the Terrible that I predicted last year, but which premiered too late in Russia to qualify. I hate making the same prediction twice...I’ll go for “Summer” this year.

SERBIA has no big films this year, but they have a good selection of smaller ones. I think they’ll choose “Woman with a Broken Nose”, a black comedy (the Serbs do these so well!) with pretty great reviews and an intriguing plot- it’s about how a woman’s attempted suicide affects three lives, and it stars two of the stars of the superb “The Trap”. Renowned director Goran Paskaljevic and his son, first-time director Vladimir- will compete with each other with two new films. Goran has been entered in the Oscar competition four times and now has “Honeymoons”, a topical story about an ethnic Serbian and ethnic Albanian couple who are both trying to emigrate to Italy. Son Vladimir has dramedy “Devil’s Town”, about intersecting lives in the capital Belgrade, which has been compared to Dad’s “Powder Keg”. In fact, many of the Serbian candidates feature a number of interlocking stories of strangers; that must say something psychological about the war-weary Serbians. This includes “White White World”, set in a decaying industrial town, and "Tilva Ros”, about life in a copper mining town (winner at Sarajevo). Two other films with a strong chance: “Besa”, about a Serb man with a Slovene wife and her forbidden romance with an Albanian friend of the family, and anti-war drama “The Enemy”, about a group of shell-shocked veterans. Top Five: “Nose”, followed by “Besa”, "Tilva Ros", “Honeymoon” and “Enemy”. Less likely but possible: “Early Frost”, the poetic story of life in the multi-ethnic province of Vojvodina (the only region in Yugoslavia that remains united with Serbia), “Motel Nana”, about a teacher whose life is turned upside down when he is accused of beating a student, “Montevideo, We Love You”, a World Cup drama set in 1930, and “Ordinary People”, an acclaimed war drama which would be a key contender but I think it was released last year. Real dark horses: a family wins the Green Card lottery in “Mamarosh” and two women switch roles in identity theft thriller “Marked”. Impossible: torture porn “Serbian Film”, referred to as Serbia’s answer to “Saw”.

82. SINGAPORE took last year off, but will probably return this year with “Sandcastle”, which played in a special section at Cannes. Though the film, about a young man questioning authority after learning about skeletons in the family closet, will likely court controversy, it was partially funded by the State film board and will get a domestic release in August, so its Cannes pedigree should get it an official nod. If it’s too controversial, you can expect them to choose jet-black comedy “Forever”, about the fine line between love and obsession. In third place: Tamil-language thriller “Gurushetram”. They have a good number of non-English language films this year, but violent action movies (“Kidnapper”) and silly comedies (“Happy Go Lucky”, “Old Cow, Bitter Grass”) need not apply.

83. SLOVAKIA held their bi-annual National Film Awards this year, but all the major nominees were eligible last year. This year, their most likely (only?) choice is “Flying Cyprian”, a big-budget (by local standards) film about an 18th century monk who develops a flying machine. Interestingly, Slovakia’s past two big-budget dramas (“Bathory” and “Janosik”) were passed up by the Slovak commtitee, but there was more competition those years. This year, the Slovaks have little to choose from- “Cyprian” opens July 29th and it’s the first domestic production released this year. Other upcoming possibilities (if they open): “English is Easy, Csaba is Dead”, a dark comedy about a mafia family trying to learn English from a kidnapped teacher, “Naty, or You Can’t Cheat Your Fate“, about an eccentric high-IQ teen, and “Former People”, about a famed 1960s murderess. Less likely: Gypsy drama “Indian Summer”, guardian angel fantasy “Angel Against His Own Will”.

84. SLOVENIA had a good film last year, that (somewhat surprisingly) got a well-deserved U.S. release. This year’s most likely nominee is “9:06”, a spare (71 minutes) psychological thriller about a Slovenian police inspector delving into the life of a mysterious suicide. It swept the Slovenian Film Awards last year winning almost every award. The directors of their 2003, 2005 and 2007 submissions all have new films out- “Circus Fantasticus” is a drama with no dialogue about a man whose wife is killed during the Yugoslav wars, “Personal Baggage” is a drama about a middle-class family, and “Slovenian Girl” (which was just picked up for a US release through Film Movement), is about a young, educated student who moonlights as a hooker. “9:06” handily defeated its main competitor ("Slovenian Girl") at the Film Awards, and probably will do the same with the Oscar committee.

85. SOUTH AFRICA's choice is almost certain to be mother-daughter AIDS tearjerker “Life, Above All”. Filmed in the obscure Northern Sotho language (also known as Sepedi), it was one of the most talked about films in Cannes (it got a 10-minute standing ovation and better reviews than Palme d’Or winner “Uncle Boonmee”) and is a very likely Oscar nominee. “Tembra” (in Xhosa), a football drama about a young village boy, should get the nod if “Life” doesn’t open in time. Unlikely: “Shirley Adams”, a heartbreaking drama about a mother taking care of her newly paralyzed 20-year old son, probably has too much English to qualify, and romantic comedy “I Now Pronounce You Black and White“ is out of its league.

86. SPAIN has less contenders this year than most of the other large European countries. Spain’s format is to choose their submission out of three finalists. My predictions for this shortlist are “Amador”, “Even the Rain” and “Lope”. “Amador”’s director was chosen once (for “Mondays in the Sun”) over Almodovar, and is a story of a young woman (the star of “Milk of Sorrow”) working as caregiver for an old man. “Even the Rain” is a movie about the voyages of Christopher Columbus, starring Gael Garcia Bernal. “Lope” is the biography of a famed Spanish playwright, which co-stars Brazilian actress Sonia Braga. Challengers for the shortlist include “Julia’s Eyes”, a much-awaited horror film that would be a strong contender except that (a)- “The Orphanage” was ignored by Oscar and (b)- it’s currently scheduled to be released after the deadline, and “Cell 911”, a box-office smash hit and Best Picture winner at last year’s Goya Awards. It appears eligible as it was released after October 1, 2009 in Spain. “Mosquito Net”, winner at Karlovy Vary in 2010, about a woman with Alzheimers, is also a potential threat. Bottom line: The cliquey Spanish Academy likes experienced directors that they know and like; they’ve only chosen a debut director once in the past 25 years, making things difficult for “Rain”, and I don’t believe they’ve ever chosen a foreign director, making things tricky for “Lope”’s Andrucha Waddington. That leaves “Amador” getting the nod.

87. SRI LANKA sent a film for the second time last year and it was about the recently ended civil war. In that vein, I predict they’ll send “Under the Sun and Moon”, about a soldier haunted by memories of an incident in which he was unable to save his commanding officer. Other choices: “Whirlwind”, the life story of a coffin-maker from a dysfunctional family, “Solitude in a Valley” about an artist whose paintings are somehow related to his dreams, and “Thank You, Come Again”, about a veteran soldier looking after his sick father.

88. SWEDEN has had a weak year. The Swedish nominee is chosen by the Guldbagge Awards jury, and “The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” and its two fellow Best Picture nominees are not eligible due to early release dates. (The Swedes are probably kicking themselves for not choosing the Guldbagge winner “Tattoo”, which has turned into a major international hit, when it was eligible last year). This year, a trio of films have an equal shot to represent the Swedes. Although they look interesting, none of them look good enough to compete for an Oscar. Two of the films co-star Tuva Novotny- “The Wedding Photographer”, a comedy-drama about an unemployed photographer who is hired to shoot a high-society wedding; it got decent reviews and was a box-office success , and “Dear Alice”, a movie about racial tensions in modern-day Stockholm, co-starring Danny Glover as a Gambian immigrant. There’s also the upcoming “Trust Me”, a comedy about a group of people working at a theatre. My prediction: “Trust Me” gets a surprise nod, with “Alice” in second and the “Photographer” in third. In fourth: “Nasty Old People” a dramedy about a neo-Nazi nurse working in an old folk’s home (!). Dark horses: “Sebbe”, a harrowing drama about an impoverished youth with special powers, “Simple Simon”, about a kid with Asperger’s Syndrome and “Easy Money”, a youth-oriented thriller. Less likely: “The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest”, the third part in the series, arthouse murder drama “The Ape”, and upcoming supernatural thriller “Psalm 21”. Trivia: Sweden (along with Spain) is the only Western European country never to choose a film directed by a woman.

89. SWITZERLAND has no high-profile films in the spotlight this year, which is not to say that they don’t have any good ones. “Bright on Black”, an intriguing “suicide romance” starring Bruno Ganz, would be my pick, but I don’t expect it will be released in time. That leaves two dysfunctional family dramas set amidst the Swiss Alps as their front-runners: “Animal Heart” (in French), the surprise winner at this year’s Swiss Film Awards, about an abusive husband and his wife, and the soon to be released “Songs of Love and Hate” (in German) about a precocious teen girl whose sexual awakening raises hell amidst the family, and which will compete for the Grand Prize in Locarno. In third place: “Hugo Koblet” (in French), a biopic about a celebrated Swiss cyclist. In fourth: “Accomplices”, a murder mystery about the death of a teen boy and the disappearance of his girlfriend (it lost to “Heart” at the Swiss Oscars). In fifth: “La Petite Chambre”, about the relationship between an elderly man and his nurse. Less likely: “Murder Farm” (another murder mystery), “Little Paradise”, about a mentally challenged woman who falls for an older man and “Taxiphone”, about a Swiss couple submersed in Moroccan culture when their car breaks down in the desert. Out of the running: after three failed submissions, Switzerland has rightfully fallen out of love with Jean-Luc Godard, but his latest exercise in self-indulgent faux-art, “Socialism”, didn’t open in Swiss cinemas anyway. My prediction: “Animal Heart” by a snout.

90. TAIWAN's biggest film “Seediq Bale” isn’t finished yet, but they still have a good field of potential submissions this year. In fact, their local film industry is doing quite well. The two big contenders this year are “Au Revoir, Taipei”, a fun romantic comedy cum crime caper that leaves its audience smiling, and box-office smash “Monga”, about juvenile gangs in 1980s Taiwan. Both of these films were shocked to be beaten by upstart documentary “Let the Wind Carry Me” at the 2010 Taipei Film Festival, but I don’t think this analysis of a local cinematographer will repeat here. The Audience Award at the Festival went to dark horse “Taipei Exchanges”, (which one reviewer calls a Taiwanese "Amelie”), about a young coffee addict working in a café. Other dark horse contenders: “Hear Me”, about the romance between a young man and a deaf girl, “Seven Days in Heaven”, a black comedy about a number of characters at a funeral, and four movies by previously submitted directors- “Tears”, about a detective seeking redemption, “How are You, Dad?”, ten short films about father-child relationships, “Uma 2010”, which has no information online, and “Face” the latest art film from Tsai Ming-liang, set in Paris and with mostly poor reviews. My predictions: “Au Revoir” gets the nod, followed by “Monga” and “Tears”, with “Taipei Exchanges” and “Hear Me” rounding out the Top Five.

91. TAJIKISTAN's latest film, “True Noon” was released last year (I’ve heard very good things about it), and their next-known film “Waiting for the Sea”, by the director of the delightful “Luna Papa”, is in pre-production. Also, I’ve heard that the last cinema in the capital was closed. So all-in-all, it’s unlikely Tajikistan can participate this year.

92. TANZANIA submitted a film once in 2001. This year, they have two movies produced by expatriate filmmakers- “Memories of a Burning Tree”, a drama in Swahili made by a Singaporean director about a man on a quest to find his mother’s grave, and “Lovely Gamble”, a super low-budget film made by Tanzanian-Britons. Tanzania will almost certainly skip this year, but “Burning Tree” could be chosen.

93. THAILAND's National Film Board does not like Apichatpong Weerasethakul, and they now face a dilemma. Should they choose the first-ever Thai winner of the Palme d’Or- “Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives”- to represent them at the Oscars? On one hand, the always pragmatic Thais may see this as their best-ever chance of winning a nomination in a competition that they’ve been entering without success since 1984. Unlike many of his other films, “Boonmee” had no trouble with the Thai censors and it received a theatrical release at home where it has been more or less well-received. On the other hand, Thailand usually prefers commercial films rather than arthouse, and red-eyed monkey ghosts aren’t necessarily going to bring Thailand an Oscar nomination even with a Palme d’Or in hand. Apichatpong has previously won two major awards at Cannes (for “Blissfully Yours” and “Tropical Malady”), but Thailand’s Academy ignored them, and there’s a fair bit of internal competition coming from the two big films at this year’s Thai Oscars (Best Picture winner “October Sonata” and Best Director winner, the serial killer thriller “Slice”) , as well as three expensive period epics that each took years to make (8th century “Edge of the Empire”, 18th century “Bangrajan 2”, and the 800-pound gorilla, 16th century “King Naresuan III”). In the end, I think the race will come down to three films- (A) “Uncle Boonmee”, (B) “October Sonata”, a sad romantic drama about star-crossed lovers set in the turbulent 1970s, and (C) “King Naresuan III, directed by Prince Chatrichalerm Yukol who has represented Thailand a record four times (Thailand nominated Part II in 2007) and reportedly the most expensive Thai film ever made. I’m torn...I’m predicting “Boonmee”, but I have a feeling I’m wrong.

94. TUNISIA has sent two films since 1995. They have two promising films this year- "Buried Secrets" and "The String"- but I'm not sure either will inspire them to send it in. "Secrets", by the director of "Satin Rouge", about three female squatters in a long-abandoned house, is the more likely of the two. "String", a drama about a middle aged gay son returning home from abroad to live with his fabulous mother (60s film star Claudia Cardinale) would probably be received better than the quiet artiness of "Secrets" but I doubt that even a liberal Arab country like Tunisia would want a gay-themed film to represent them!

95. TURKEY 's film industry is doing well, although their biggest hits are comedies and horror movies made purely for entertainment and not awards. No less than nine films are potential Oscar submissions this year, although the two most likely are “Breath”, an anti-war film about the psychological terror experienced by an outpost of 40 Turkish soldiers defending against a Kurdish attack, and “Honey”, the winner of Berlinale 2010 about a young boy whose father is a beekeeper. The two biggest possible spoilers are “Two-Way Switch”, a black comedy about a man trying to murder his wife (winner of the Istanbul Film Festival and oft compared to the Coen Brothers), and “Kosmos”, a dreamy, arthouse film (winner of Anatolia and Yerevan Film Festivals). Rounding out the Top Five is “Children of Diyarbakir”, a movie about two Kurdish orphans who meet the man who murdered their parents. The other four- “Envy” (family intrigue), “Men on the Bridge” (experimental), “On the Way to School” (Turkish teacher teaching cute Kurdish kids) and cross-cultural pseudo-romance “The Wrong Rosary”- probably won’t be able to make it, but the Turks can be unpredictable. My prediction: “Honey” won a major award, but “Breath” is a bigger film...I’m really not sure, but will choose box-office hit “Breath”

96. UKRAINE is not accustomed to being seen on the film festival circuit, so their Cannes competitor “My Joy”, a nihilistic, depressing road movie set in provincial Russia, should be enough to spur Ukraine’s return to the competition after a one-year hiatus. The only other films on the radar are Kira Muratova’s “Melody for a Barrel Organ”, a three-hour allegorical tale featuring a pair of lost children and “Day of the Defeated”, about Communist authorities intervening in a woman’s funeral. Ukraine has never gone for one of Muratova’s films before, so I think “Joy” is safe.

The 97. UNITED KINGDOM is going to have the same predictions as last year, since the two films I predicted didn’t premiere in time. Most of their Oscar submissions have been in Welsh, as is my prediction- “Patagonia”- a wide-scale movie about a real-life Welsh community that emigrated to the wilds of Argentina. I’m pretty sure that it will be the nominee, but there’s also “She A Chinese” about illegal Chinese immigrants in England, and “Pusher”, a Hindi-language crime drama set in London.

98. URUGUAY has a small film industry, yet they always seem to have a difficult decision at Oscar time. This year’s race (like last year) boils down to two films- “Hiroshima”, another of the minimalist wry dramas that Uruguay is famous for, and “Leo’s Room”, a gay coming-out story. It will be a hard decision- “Hiroshima” is directed by Pablo Stoll, one of Uruguay’s most accomplished young directors, and this is his first film since the suicide of his longtime co-director Juan Pablo Rebella. The movie, about an aspiring singer, has gotten mixed reviews...definitely not as good as “Leo’s Room”, which co-stars Cesar Troncoso, who has co-starred in almost every Uruguayan submission ever. Single-take horror flick “The Silent House” has its admirers, but won’t factor in. I’m not sure what they’ll do. Both directors are thirty-something and will have a chance to be selected again in the future. Gay rights in Uruguay are moving forward pretty quickly. I’m guessing the Uruguayans go with the superior “Leo”.

99. VENEZUELA‘s films rarely ever win awards, and a recent trend of making films that conform to Chavista political dogma has not helped the quality of national filmmaking. They should choose “Hermano”, the winner of the Grand Prize at the Moscow Film Festival, and the most acclaimed Venezuelan film in years, but I’m not sure if this football/family revenge drama of two “brothers” from the slums has the appropriate revolutionary credentials to rep Venezuela. Most of the films I predicted last year did not open until late 2009/2010, including big-scale historical dramas “Zamora” and “ Taita Boves”. Both of these films are definitely Chavez-friendly (both are true stories about revolting against the wealthy upper-class), as is “Habana Eve”, a romantic comedy set in Cuba, and are all by previously submitted directors, as is “Unauthorized”, an arty drama by Elia Schneider. I’m predicting “Hermano”, but think that one of the expensive historical movies could easily slip in, especially “Taita Boves”.

100. VIETNAM has had a strong year, and I predict they choose lavish period drama “Heroes of the Tay Son Dynasty”, an 18th century dramatization about a peasant rebellion that defeated the Chinese. It will be a good opportunity to show that the Vietnamese can make the same sort of big period battle movies that the big guys (i.e. China, Japan, Korea and Thailand) can do. Two arthouse movies will provide stiff competition, especially “Bi, Don’t Be Afraid”, about a boy and his grandfather (Cannes 2010), but also from erotic drama “Adrift” (FIPRESCI Winner; Venice 2009), although it didn’t impress too many people at the National Film Awards. Upcoming releases “Inferno” (a very stylish-looking thriller) and “Endless Field” (about rural life) could make it if they’re really, really good, but probably face too much competition. FYI: The winner of the 2010 Golden Kite Awards is not eligible (“Don’t Burn”, which represented the Vietnamese last year).

SIX POSSIBLE DEBUTS:
Last year, for the first time since 1988, no new countries entered the competition. Most sizeable countries (outside of Africa) have already sent a film at least once, although there are a few more that could send their first film this year. The oil-rich Gulf states have begun sponsoring film production, film festivals and television series in a region where little or none existed before. Aside from two Kuwaiti films in the 1970s, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula have never entered. Most likely to enter a film this year is the most visible country in the region- the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES- which could send “City of Life”, which tells three stories (one in Arabic, one in English, one in Hindi) about the underside of glitzy Dubai. The trailer looks very interesting and it was a box-office hit at home, although some Emiratis have criticized it for showing an unfavorable picture of the image-conscious city. 24 of the EU's 27 members submit films on a more-or-less regular basis, and Ireland has submitted a single film. That leaves tiny CYPRUS and MALTA as the typical truants from EU Film Festivals the world over. The South Cyprus government (which controls the EU seat) has devoted money to film, and will almost certainly send a movie sooner or later.....This year, they have "Guilt, about the nightmares of a Cypriot arms dealer. It was co-sponsored by the Ministry of Culture, the premiere was attended by the Cypriot President, and it got a Best Pic nomination at the Greek Film Awards. MALTA has a potential candidate in " Kont Diga' ", billed as Malta's first-ever independent film, about an emigre who returns to his home country after many years abroad. The most likely new country to submit from the Americas is not a “nation” at all...The vast, autonomous province of GREENLAND may try to send “Nuumioq”, set amid the island's beautiful fjords, about a terminally ill man falling in love. Greenland may try and take this step as one of many to gradually assert independence from Denmark. PANAMA could submit for the first time with comedy “Chance”, about two maids who decide to wage war against the stuck-up aristocratic family they work for. Supposedly based on a true story, it looks quite funny (although not Oscary). From Eastern Europe, newly-independent MONTENEGRO is this year's most likely debutante for the government co-sponored "Little Love God", about a Macedonian living in the Montenegrin capital, whose life turns upside down when his wife disappears, his bank goes bankrupt and the police confiscate his passport.

Less likely: Earthquake-scarred HAITI has “Moloch Tropical”, about political intrigue and misrule in the country but the Haitian premiere was delayed (canceled?) due to the earthquake. KOSOVO may challenge the Academy to define a country once again (it's not a UN member due to protests from Russia, Serbia and others), with "Beyond the Road", one of the first feature films since the region gained de facto independence in 2008. It's a digital film about a man in some sort of a purgatory. BAHRAIN has “Longing” (Haneen), the country’s eighth feature film (how funny to come from a country where you can count on two hands!)- a meditation of the relationship between two families- one Sunni, one Shi’ite. QATAR’s first-ever feature film, “Clockwise” (Aqaribabzah) is a horror-thriller about djinns (aka genies). ANGOLA, whose oil-based economy is booming, has “Bullets and Guns”, a parody of the popular local gangsta' films, which apparently began being churned out after the local success of “City of God”. MOZAMBIQUE has Portuguese co-production "The Last Flight of the Flamingo (See PORTUGAL). From Asia, there's UZBEKISTAN, which produces a few dozen films each year, including “Narigi Sohilda Qolgan Bolalik”, about life in a village over a 70-year period. NORTH KOREA sent a rare film to the Moscow film festival- “Notes of a Woman Soldier”, a propaganda film about a woman who realizes the value of serving her country while in a remote outpost, and MACAU has a rare film in “Roulette City”, about a man who comes to the city-state to raise money for his mother’s operation.