Friday, December 21, 2012

FINAL PREDICTIONS

The final shortlist should be announced in a few hours....Here are my final predictions....

In the end, I think the elite committee will save "Beyond the Hills" and "No" over contenders like "Blancanieves" and "Pieta"....But it will be a close race. I also am taking a risk and saying that "the beautifully shot but low on plot" films from Kazakhstan and Norway will fail to impress the voters. And I haven't forgotten ITALY's weird "Caesar Must Die"...I think it's out of the running.

I'm also predicting that a lot of recent buzz about "After Lucia" and the dreary, boring world of "Barbara" will bring those two films a lot closer than I previously thought....Will they make it?

We'll find out soon enough!

FINAL SHORTLIST (in order) of likelihood:
1. AUSTRIA- "Amour"
2. DENMARK- "A Royal Affair"
3. ISRAEL- "Fill the Void"
4. AUSTRALIA- "Lore"
5. CANADA- "War Witch"
6. SOUTH AFRICA- "Little One"
7. CHILE- "No"
8. CZECH REPUBLIC- "In the Shadow"
9. ROMANIA- "Beyond the Hills"

VERY STRONG CONTENDERS:
10. MEXICO- "After Lucia"
11. SPAIN- "Blancanieves"
12. FRANCE- "Les Intouchables"
13. GERMANY- "Barbara"
14. KOREA- "Pieta"
15. SWITZERLAND- "Sister"
16. BELGIUM- "A perdre la raison"
17. SERBIA- "When Day Breaks"
18. PHILIPPINES- "Bwakaw"

DARK HORSES:
19. POLAND- "80 Million"
20. ICELAND- "The Deep"
21. SWEDEN- "The Hypnotist"
22. NORWAY- "Kon-Tiki"
23. CHINA- "Caught in the Web"
24. KYRGYZSTAN- "Empty Home"
25. KAZAKHSTAN- "Myn Bala"
26. AFGHANISTAN- The Patience Stone"
27. HUNGARY- "Just the Wind"
28. KENYA- "Nairobi Half Life"
29. CAMBODIA- "Lost Loves"
30. ALGERIA- "Zabana!"

2 comments:

Evan said...

Not a bad guess. You had all nine in the top 1/3 of competitors. Which three do you think the Executive Committee saved?

I'll say Canada, Chile, and Romania.

ivan coss y leon said...

Dzong, the final list:

Austria, Amour
Canada, War Witch
Chile, No
Denmark, A Royal Affair
France, The Intouchables
Iceland, The Deep
Norway, Kon-Tiki
Romania, Beyond the Hills
Switzerland, Sister

Again, too Euro-centric (Seven nominees against two from the Americas). I'm surprised you undestimated Norway -The response at AFI Fest was excellent and the Weinstein Company will release the film in the USA.

I'll wait for your last prediction :P