Although the official list of submissions hasn't come out, a variety of sources have reported that there are 93 films in the official online Oscar screening room. We'll look at their chances in five regional groups....
ASIA-PACIFIC (18 films)
EASTERN EUROPE (22 films)
THE AMERICAS (16 films)
WESTERN EUROPE (19 films)
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA (18 films)
I've seen more than half of the Asia-Pacific films so we'll start with those:
FRONTRUNNERS:
1. JAPAN- "Drive My Car"
In a Nutshell: A drama focusing on an acclaimed theatre director dealing with the death of his unfaithful wife, his tough lady chauffeur, and a Chekhov play.
Pros: Buzz is very, very strong....On most websites, it has by far the best review scores in this region. Western critics have been smitten with the film (less so, Japanese critics) since it won Best Screenplay at Cannes. People say the 3-hours flies by.
Cons: At 2 hours and 59 minutes, "Drive My Car" is the longest film on the list. But although 3-hour running times are torture for me...I really don't think that the length will bother Oscar voters that much. Perhaps the intellectualism about life mirroring a Chekhov play won't make sense to everyone...But reviews have been very good regardless and the film feels somewhat safe.
In A Nutshell: Zhang Yimou makes his first "spy thriller" with this twisty espionage drama set in Japanese-occupied China.
Pros: Critics say the film is visually beautiful, and Zhang Yimou has done well in this category before. I've heard people say the film is patriotic but not obsessed with nationalism and more digestible for Western audiences. Americans love "twists" and "double-crosses. Nominating "Cliff Walkers" would also be a reminder to China to stop nominating jingoistic action movies and start sending quality films by auteurs like they used to.
Cons: On paper, this should be a front-runner...but nobody is talking about it (possibly because China selected it so late?). I haven't seen the film yet but a few people say the film is boring. It will come close!
DARK HORSES:
In A Nutshell: A female professor witnesses a sexual assault...and knows both the perpetrator and the young victim.
Pros: In the days of #MeToo, this is a very relevant story from a fascinating and very different cultural perspective. Bangladeshi films never place this high in the rankings, but this drama that premiered at Cannes has gotten very strong reviews from critics and could come close to making the shortlist...though it's likely to just miss out. Some critics have described as a drama that transforms itself into a thriller.
Cons: Oscar bias against female-centered stories....Bangladesh is a real underdog and never makes it this far....
In A Nutshell: Filmed in Kabul, Afghanistan, it's about a bright 11-year old boy who becomes the only means of support for his grandmother, mother and sister after his father is killed, but who also dreams of becoming a film star.
Pros: It's an earnest, charming and bittersweet film made with love and even a little bit of humor. Oscar often likes stories about kids. Recent events in Afghanistan have made this film even more thought-provoking. Where is the cast now? How would the lives of these characters change today?
Cons: Making a film in Afghanistan is challenging and some of those limitations are evident , particularly in an early sequence featuring a terrorist attack at a wedding. May be too slight to get noticed.
In A Nutshell: A bright teenaged girl (Yuni) comes of age in a small Javanese town. While she seeks to go to university, she faces unexpected family and social pressure to get married.
Pros: This is a surprisingly frank look at sexuality in Muslim-majority Indonesia. The film got very good reviews in Toronto and Arawinda Kirana does a good job at playing the increasingly troubled Yuni. A strong ending.
Cons: This category rarely goes for stories about women. I found the film a bit hard to get into.
In A Nutshell: A snobbish teacher seeking to emigrate to Australia is sent on a one-year assignment to one of the most remote and least developed villages in the country.
Pros: This is a real crowdpleaser and it's probably my personal favorite of the ten Asia-Pacific films I've seen. Oscar will fall for its cute village kids and its a very engaging story. With so many serious and depressing films in the running, this will be a real breath of fresh air. Film has a great backstory (though most Oscar voters won't know that) since it was filmed in the real remote village of Lunana and filmmakers didn't have enough electricity to watch the footage until they returned to the editing room weeks or months after filming. Film ends on a strong note.
Cons: This small story will have its fans but it's probably too light and will get lost in the mix.
MID-RANGE OPTIONS:
In A Nutshell: Based on a true story, the small diplomatic teams of the South and North Korean Embassies in Mogadishu, Somalia reluctantly work together when the government collapses and rebels take over the streets.
Pros: Unlike many of the festival favorites, this is actually an entertaining and exciting movie. Good production designers have made Morocco look like Somalia. Action sequences please crowds but there is a deeper message within.
Cons: It often feels more like a standard Hollywood-style action movie rather than an awards contender.
In A Nutshell: A large apartment building and its lower-middle-class community are threatened when the building is targeted by developers.
Pros: Issues of urban displacement and gentrification will resonate in the USA as much as Cambodia. It's an obscure film, but it premiered in Venice and has just been picked up by a small U.S. distributor.
Cons: No buzz. This sort of small, urban drama from a small country just isn't likely to make the impact necessary to make the shortlist.
In A Nutshell: An 8-year orphan boy lives with his extended family in a remote but beautiful section of the Kyrgyz mountains.
Pros: Kyrgyzstan excels at this kind of rural village drama with beautiful landscapes and sympathetic rural characters.
Cons: But Kyrgyzstan has never been shortlisted for any of these beautiful, rural dramas...Variety called it "dramatically uneven" and "old-fashioned".
In A Nutshell: A gentle, film-loving ex-con (possibly on the spectrum???) falls in love with an eccentric prostitute while on the run from the Kazakh mafia.
Pros: This bittersweet comedy-cum-road-movie is filled with a charming lead couple, eccentric and original supporting characters, and a cute and engaging story. Film fans will appreciate lots of old-school cinematic references and in-jokes...
Cons: But the references will go over the heads of most viewers under 50....The film is flawed...Some brilliant moments are too short...Some silly moments go on too long....Critical response was positive but divided.
OUT OF LUCK:
In A Nutshell: One of the first films about coronavirus, a mother and daughter start to go a little crazy when they are quarantined together in their apartment.
Pros: The COVID theme is a novelty. Director was shortlisted last year for "A Sun"
Cons: Reviews haven't been anywhere near as strong as "A Sun", with most notices positive but not enough so to make the next round. The trailer for the film looks really interesting but it's difficult to even tell what genre it is. Is it a family drama? An arthouse film? A psychological thriller? Can it blend these tricky themes effectively?
In A Nutshell: Starting off as a "Paranormal Activity"-style docudrama, the film begins by following a sweet village shaman woman before switching to her stylish niece who appears to be possessed by a spirit.
Pros: The first half is a fascinating academic look at Thai mythology and culture...the finale is a brilliant horror masterpiece.
Cons: It's difficult to see Oscar going for a horror movie like this one. The gruesome second half, while brilliantly done, will not please some conservative viewers. Some think the film is too long.
In A Nutshell: A young boy and his abusive alcoholic father travel through deserts and villages in search of the man's wife.
Pros: The film is a real window onto rural culture in Tamil Nadu. Although I originally had it ranked dead-last in Asia, critical notices have been surprisingly strong.
Cons: Half the film consists of watching these characters walk around through barren landscapes and vignettes of local villagers doing things like cooking rats and riding buses, with nothing else going on. It's hard to see this advancing.
In A Nutshell: A young woman arrives at the home of a wealthy man to become his fourth wife, in early 20th century Uzbekistan.
Pros: The film looks great and it's an interesting look at a very exotic and foreign culture.
Cons: The film starts off interesting but eventually becomes confusing and convoluted.
HAPPY TO PARTICIPATE:
15. MALAYSIA- "Hail Driver!" (though it deserves to be much higher!)
17. HONG KONG- "Zero to Hero"
18. VIETNAM- "Bo Gia"
First of all, I'm glad that all four of these countries submitted films, especially MALAYSIA, which made a great choice, even if the film doesn't have a real chance at being nominated. Focusing on the unusual friendship (relationship?) between a Malay ride-share driver and a Chinese woman, the ultra low-budget B&W indie drama "Hail Driver" is a sobering look at the controversial issue of race relations in Malaysia. Although American audiences won't fully understand the historical and cultural context, this is a brave choice and a wonderful way of promoting the film. Good luck and congratulations, Malaysia!
Now the statistics:
Genres: 13 dramas, 2 thrillers (China, Korea), 2 comedies (Kazakhstan, Vietnam), 1 horror film (Thailand)
Number of countries who have participated in the past: 28
Number of countries entering films this year: 18
Number of debuts: Zero.
Who Didn’t Submit?: The Philippines failed to send a film for only the second time since 1995 (in 2005, they claimed they failed to receive a notification and thought they weren't invited). Like many Asian countries, cinemas have been closed for over a year due to COVID, and virtual cinema isn't terribly developed. However, they did have some eligible films so it's surprising they didn't send something.
Nepal and Pakistan, both of whom confirmed that they formed selection committees this year, reopened cinemas in September/October 2021 and probably didn't know what would be eligible since the Oscar deadline was October 31 but the release date deadline was December 31. Pakistan is absent for the first time since they rejoined the competition in 2013.
I also expected Mongolia to send a film, namely "The Woman". Afghanistan has had a range of political problems (though they are well-represented by Australia) and New Zealand may not have had anything eligible. The other four have only sent films once (Fiji, Laos) or twice (Sri Lanka, Tajikistan) in Oscar history.
Already Seen: I've seen 10 out of 18, and my favorites were the films from Bhutan and Thailand (A-), followed by Australia and Malaysia (B+), Kazakhstan and Korea (B), Indonesia (B-), India and Uzbekistan (C) and the big mess from Hong Kong (D).
Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely "Shambala" from Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz village dramas are always charming.
Major Festivals: Not many....2 from Cannes (Bangladesh and Japan) and 3 from Venice (Cambodia, Kazakhstan and Taiwan)
Number of Female Directors: Only 2! Granaz Moussavi (Australia) and Kamila Andini (Indonesia)
Oldest and Youngest Directors: 74-year old Kyrgyz director Artykpai Suyundukov is the oldest director in this year's competition. The youngest in the group is probably P.S. Vinothraj (India), 33.
Number of Languages Represented: We have three films in Mandarin Chinese, plus one each in Bengali, Cantonese, Dzongkha, Indonesian, Japanese, Khmer, Korean, Kyrgyz, Malay, Persian, Russian, Tamil, Thai, Uzbek and Vietnamese
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many....Maybe three?
Most Likely to Get Their First Spot on the Shortlist: Bangladesh. Eight countries are hoping for their first nomination.
Buzziest films: "Drive My Car" from Japan
Controversies and Changes: The films from Bhutan and Uzbekistan were submitted last year but were disqualified (Uzbekistan's film was sent in the wrong format and Bhutan's film was selected by the Ministry of Culture rather than an approved committee). I was surprised to see them both back this year. In India, as always, the bitter and jealous filmmakers of films that didn't get picked raised a ruckus. This year, the filmmakers of "Sardar Udham" seized on a remark that the film was "anti-British" and complained to the media that this was the reason they weren't selected. This led to several committee members reiterating that they simply didn't think it was the best film.
Oscar History: Zhang Yimou of China has been nominated for two Oscars ("Raise the Red Lantern" and "Hero"), while Chung Mong-hong of Taiwan has been submitted twice (and was shortlisted by "A Sun" last year).
Familiar Faces: There are surprisingly few faces that would be familiar to Western audiences. The most well-known is probably Hong Kong actress Sandra Ng.
Last year's race: Hong Kong was the only Asian film to get nominated last year, with "Better Days" (B+), although Pakistan's "Circus of Life" (A) was clearly the best of the lot, and I think Japan's "True Mothers" (A-) was second-best.
The rest were mostly good-to-average....Bangladesh, Kazakhstan (B+), Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Singapore (B), Cambodia, India and Thailand (B-) and Malaysia (C+) bringing up the rear.
