WESTERN EUROPE PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film 2027

And here's the last batch of countries from Western Europe, including CYPRUS, which has promised to send a film this year for the first time. 

Austria, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland have already announced their candidates, while the Netherlands has published a list of the six films that have registered. Denmark, Norway, Portugal and Sweden have announced official shortlists, and there is also a rumored Spanish "longlist" floating around. France and Spain are expected to announce shortlists in the coming weeks. 

Austria- Every year, there’s one country that announces their submission before I’ve had a chance to research it….This year, that was Austria, which announced B&W Berlinale Best Actress winner “Rose”, starring Sandra Huller, as their submission. I probably would have predicted “Four Minus Three” (also from Berlin) but we’ll never know. “Rose”, a 17^th century period drama about a woman (Huller) posing as a male soldier, is certainly a very strong choice and director Markus Schleinzer has come close to representing Austria in the past ("Michael" is particularly good). I’m also excited to see “Blood Countess”, starring Isabelle Huppert as the legendary (vampire?) serial killer Countess Bathory despite wildly uneven reviews.

Belgium- “Coward" UPDATE: I wrote this earlier this week, before "Coward" was selected as their official entry. 

The Kingdom of Belgium has a more complicated selection process than most countries since they have two distinct Film Associations that run themselves basically as two different countries – one based in French-speaking Wallonia and one in Dutch-speaking Flanders. To start with, each association forms its own Oscar selection jury. A Flemish jury watches the Flemish films and the Walloon jury watches the French films (there are quite a few films that are bilingual or mixed productions….I have no idea how they deal with those) and each association then has the right to submit one or two films to the finals, where a mixed national jury selects the final Belgian candidate. Unlike most Western European countries, Belgium does not reveal the names of the finalists. 

This year, I expect the Flemish films will be Lukas Dhont’s “Coward” (Cannes) and lesbian drama “Julian”, which dominated the Flemish Film Awards, though they could easily replace “Julian” with “The Soundman”, about a young Jewish man in 1940 Belgium....but “Coward” is the clear Flemish frontrunner.  From the French-speaking region, I expect the finalists will be Michael Roskam’s “Le faux soir” (Roskam is Flemish but the film is in French and the WBImages website indicates it's a majority Wallon production) and “We Believe You”, which swept this year’s Magritte Awards......though it could also be “Adam’s Interest” (by the director of the Oscar-shortlisted but largely forgotten “Playground”) or “Diane in the Loop” (Venice)….So it looks like it’s Dhont versus Roskam! Both men have been nominated for Oscars before (“Close” and “Bullhead”) and both are truly "national" directors, working in both Dutch and French. “Coward” has all the buzz for its World War I story of wartime same-sex comradery and has gotten great reviews at Cannes. “Le faux soir” is a baity WWII "true story", about how a newspaper in Nazi-occupied Belgium printed fake editions to fool Nazi authorities, but it has two main challenges – it hasn’t premiered yet so we don’t know how good it is…and it would have to arrange a qualifying release for the Oscars. So for me, it’s in a close second place (and could opt for next year), with custody drama “We  Believe You” in a distant third. 

CYPRUS- “Hold Onto Me” Though it’s a lot bigger than Luxembourg or Malta (or Iceland or Montenegro), Cyprus has long been the only EU country that didn’t have a recognized committee for the Oscars. Apparently, local filmmakers have been complaining for years, and the Cypriot Ministry of Culture finally did the necessary paperwork and will enter this year. Most of their films are co-productions with Greece but they seem to have six eligible films at festivals this year. The two obvious frontrunners are thriller “Broken Vein” and coming-of-age drama “Hold Onto Me”. “Broken Vein” is a bigger movie, but “Hold Onto Me”, about an 11-year old trying to reconnect with her estranged mother, won the Audience Award at Sundance (a huge achievement for Cyprus) as well as Best Cypriot Film at the local festival. It’s also got Ministry backing while “Broken Vein"'s director has been based in Greece for years (see GREECE). Welcome to Hollywood, Cyprus!

 

Denmark- “What Lies Between Us” AMPAS loves Denmark. Last year was a rare year that they weren’t shortlisted…and yet they still won an Oscar when “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (deservedly) won Best Documentary Feature instead. Like Norway and Sweden, Denmark always releases a three-film shortlist. I correctly predicted that “What Lies Between Us” and “Woman Unknown” would make the list easily, with half a dozen other titles trying to get that final slot. I was pretty sure it would be one of five options- uncomfortable family dramas “Cute” (San Sebastian) and “The Guest” (Karlovy Vary) starring Trine Dyrholm, plus Yugoslav immigration drama “Home” (Rotterdam), documentary “Rescue” (Toronto), and gay Danish/Faroese horror-drama “No Rest for the Wicked”. In the end, I predicted “The Guest” would get the final place on the shortlist but instead it went to "Home". 

Denmark will announce its final candidate on September 25. Both Danish frontrunners are hoping for automatic entries to the Oscars before that, at Venice (“Woman Unknown”, September 12) and Toronto (“What Lies Between Us”, September 20) but that's statistically unlikely, so one of these two will surely represent the Kingdom this year. May el-Toukhy is one of the few Danish directors to strike out at the Oscars in recent years - “Queen of Hearts” was good but it was one of just three Danish films since 2010 that completely struck out.....so they may hesitate to give her a second chance. I’m pretty sure this will go to “What Lies Between Us”, about a middle-class family trying to protect their underage son when he is accused of participating in a terrible sexual assault. If it wins in Toronto, then el-Toukhy’s period drama, about a post-WWII nanny harboring a secret, will go. "Home" is extremely unlikely.  

Faroe Islands- "Birita" Cyprus has promised to enter the race this year. Could we also see a debut from the Faroe Islands (pop: 57,000)? The Faroe Islands is a country within the Kingdom of Denmark. It has a political status similar to Greenland, with its own language, currency, flag, and sports teams. Last year, they began to submit films for the Nordic Film Prize (where each country is allowed one film) and unexpectedly won the award. This year's Nordic Film Prize candidate from the Faroe Islands is a documentary called "Birita", about a theatrical family who decide to make a film starring their mother, who suffers from Alzheimers.

Finland- “Tell Everyone” Finland has a wide-open race with six previously submitted directors in the running: Alli Haapasalo (selected in 2022), Klaus Härö (2003, 2005, 2009 and 2015), Antti Jokinen (2012), Dome Karukoski (2008 and 2017), Aleksi Salmenperä (2004 and 2007) and Selma Vilhunen (2019).....plus some other very good options. I think the five frontrunners (in alphabetical order) are: (1)- “Blue Baby” (Härö), a soon-to-be-released drama about a nurse torn between caring for a sick infant and her commitmetto a labor strike, (2)- “Hippo Love” (Karukoski), a comedy-drama about an unhappily married man connecting with a beautiful woman at a wedding, (3)- “The Kidnapping of the President”, a black comedy about a far-right terror group kidnapping the new Finnish president in 1930, (4)- “The Reading Club of Kabul”, a documentary about Afghan women, and (5)-  “Tell Everyone” (Haapasalo), the true story of Finnish women cruelly exiled to a remote island in the 1890s for routine female medical issues. The only Finnish film at a major film festival this year was horror-drama “Nightborn” (co-starring Rupert Grint from the Harry Potter movies!). It competed in Berlin but won’t be released until November (and has a lot of English?) so it’s not eligible. Finland picked a fun comedy last year but this year I think this will come down to the two most serious entries- “Blue Baby” and “Tell Everyone”. Both directors have been picked before and the decision will probably come down to how well “Blue Baby” is received when it premieres in early September. “Tell Everyone” is supposed to be very good but it's said to be a very grim, depressing and difficult film….In the end, I think that’s the one Finland will choose. 

France- "La Gradiva" France, as always, has a difficult decision. And, as always, no matter what they choose, people will get angry at them. That's what happens when you have the world's most greatest film industry in the non-English-speaking world. This year, everyone is watching to see if they will pick Cannes Grand Prix winner "Minotaur", a Russian film made by two-time Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. If they do, it will France's second submission in a row made by a foreign director, and its third film in a row not in the French language. For French directors making great films, that has to sting. 

It's very possible they'll pick "Minotaur"....It's eligible. But I think they'll want to reward a French director this year. Ironically, the favorites this year was Iranian director Asghar Farhadi and megastar Isabelle Huppert...but "Parallel Tales" flopped with critics so that's likely out of the running. For actual French films, I hear people talking about "Good Little Soldier" (Venice), "Iron Boy", "La Gradiva" (Cannes), "A Man of His Time" (Cannes), "Moulin" (Cannes; by Hungarian Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes) "The Rays and Shadows" and the two-part deGaulle biopics. Of these options, "La Gradiva" and "Of Rays and Shadows" seem to have the best reviews and the best chance. Reviews for "Moulin" aren't good enough (and if they're going to pick a foreign director, they might as well choose Minotaur)...."Iron Boy" is a (very well-reviewed) animated film and they'd have a hard time defending that over "Minotaur" too.....The biopics of anti-American deGaulle will be of no interest to American audiences. "Rays and Shadows" is a baity film during Nazi-occupied France and the director has been shortlisted to represent France before....It will be again. But reviews for the odd "La Gradiva" are exceptionally strong. 

Germany-  "Everytime" Well, I got this one right!....I wrote the following analysis shortly after Germany announced their shortlist earlier this month: 

On August 17, Germany announced that 10 (or 11) films were under consideration to represent Germany. The eleventh film is “Minotaur”, a Russian film made in Latvia by a director exiled to France, with mostly French producers, Russian principal crew and Latvian junior crew. Although I sympathize with exiled film directors, Zvyagintsev fled to France...."Minotaur" is not a German film and it should not be allowed to represent Germany. German Films announced that its spot on the list was “provisional” while they wait for a determination of its eligibility. I think AMPAS will tell them that France should submit it instead…but they’re inconsistent on that point. Anyway, by the rules it’s not eligible so here's my ranking of the ten actual German films on the list:

Strongly in the Running-

1. “Everytime” (Winner, Cannes UCR)

2. “Oh This Unspeakable Void” (Bronze Medal at the German Film Awards behind “Sound of Falling” and “Yellow Letters”)

3. “Prosecution” (Winner, Berlin Panorama)

Dark Horses-        

4. “Visitation” (by the 87-year Oscar-winning director of “The Tin Drum” in 1980)

5. “No Good Men” (Opening Film at Berlin)

In the Middle-          

6. “Dreamed Adventure” (Jury Prize, Cannes)

7. “The Trial of Hein” (Berlin)

8. “23,000 Lives” (Netflix)

Happy to Be on the List-      

9. “You Believe in Angels, Herr Drowak?” (Shanghai)

10. “Babystar” (Toronto)

Overall, it’s a very strong list but let’s just look at the top half: (in alphabetical order)

-          “Everytime” arguably has the best reviews on the list (it has the highest Letterboxd score...and that includes “Minotaur”). I understand it's about a family’s guilt over some sort of terrible accident (I am trying to read as little about the film as possible before I see it) and it won the Un Certain Regard category at Cannes. But working against it?….it’s a majority Austrian film and people say it’s fucking confusing and very Oscar “unfriendly”.

-        “No Good Men”, the only genuine comedy on the list (though it’s really a textbook example of a “tragicomedy)….This “Afghan rom-com” was made by Shahrbanoo Sadat, a feminist Afghan filmmaker who fled to Germany in 2021 and who made this film entirely in Germany. I absolutely loved it…and I would love to see this film represent Germany (or, preferably, Afghanistan) though it’s probably a little too light. Still, I encourage people to search it out. I laughed, I cried, I came away satisfied  and curious to know more about the situation in Afghanistan. 

-        “Oh This Unspeakable Void”, another so-called “tragicomedy”...."Void" is about a 20-year old music student moving in with his eccentric grandparents. It is the crowdpleasing choice and it has been a critical and box-office success. While Germany usually goes “heavy” at the Oscars, lighter films like “I’m Your Man” have been submitted and shortlisted. But it’s tough for comedies to compete.

-        “Prosecution”, an angry courtroom drama, won Berlin’s Panorama section for its story of a German woman of Korean descent facing off against racism by taking far-right activists to court. Reviews have been very good though I’ve heard it’s confusing for those who aren't familiar with Germany’s court system. (Sounds like the underrated “I Just Didn’t Do It”, which repped Japan in 2007).

      Finally, “Visitation” is Germany's “old-school” option. First of all, the plot sounds like an AI-generated version of “German Oscar nominee”; it follows seven decades of German history through the lens of Nazism, World War II, Communism and the fall of the Berlin Wall. 87-year old Volker Schlöndorff won Germany its first Oscar nearly fifty years ago for “The Tin Drum” and this is likely his final film. Will sentimentality lead Germany to pick it over better-reviewed films? In the 80s and 90s, this sort of film would have been nominated easily…Could a large number of older AMPAS voters still get it to the shortlist? 

    Some are predicting Bulgarian crime drama "The Dreamed Adventure". It admittedly won the Cannes Jury Prize but reviews are the most divisive of any film on the list. 

        This is a tough one! But I’m predicting “Everytime”. It could easily be “Unspeakable Void” or “Prosecution” if they want a genuinely German (not Austrian) film.  

Greece- “Patty is Such a Girly Name” So, Greece established their national Film Awards (the “Iris” Awards) in 2010. Since then, the Iris award for Best Picture and the Greek Oscar submission matched up 9 out of 16 times. It went to an Iris Best Picture nominee six more times (including “Murderess”, which was the default winner when Iris winner “Animal” very publicly boycotted the Oscar selection), while in 2019 it unexpectedly went to the little-known winner of the Iris for Best Documentary Feature (“When Tomatoes Met Wagner”). In 2026, sports drama “Patty is Such a Girly Name” dominated the Iris Awards, making it the clear favorite. Fellow Best Picture nominees “Beachcomber”, “Bearcave”, “Broken Vein” and “Life in a Beat” all won major awards, so they all technically have a chance. With the possible exception of “A Day in the Life of Jo” - soon to premiere in Venice - I don’t see any other serious options for Greece. Sports drama “Patty”, about a young female judo athlete, won the top three awards (Best Picture, Director and Screenplay) so it’s definitely the favorite – though “Knifer”, “Son of Sofia” and “Suntan” did too and they were not selected. Thriller “Broken Vein” (also a possibility for CYPRUS) actually looks much more accessible than “Patty” and director Economides (a Greek Cypriot who has lived in Greece for decades) has come close before…So each of these films have a 50-50 shot….”Life in a Beat”, about a down-on-her-luck pregnant woman, and “A Day in the Life of Jo”, about a teenager’s last day of life, are real dark horses, while "Beachcomber" (a boat-builder) and "Bearcave" ( a queer drama) are likely out of their league. 

GREENLAND- “Our Flag” Greenland returned to the Oscars last year after a 13-year break with “Walls: Akinni Inuk”, a quiet but really wonderful prison documentary that I highly recommend. This year, they could send “Our Flag” (CPX:DOX), a spare 51-minute documentary about the origins of the Greenlandic flag, which was adopted in 1985 as a sign of the territory’s budding nationalism. An even better choice would be entertaining football documentary “No Place for Football”, although the directors are American. 

Iceland- “The Ground Beneath Our Feet” Little Iceland is the only Nordic country that has never sent a documentary to the Oscars. That’s likely to change this year because the two frontrunners are “Amongst the Birds” (CPH: DOX), about an elderly couple and their friends taking care of a huge colony of migrating ducks, and “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”, a popular documentary about the residents of Reykjavik’s oldest nursing home (It also won Best Documentary at the 2026 Eddas). It’s difficult to know which of these two they’ll like better but I’m predicting “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”. Egalitarian, feminist Iceland has only chosen one female-helmed film in the past 30 years….maybe that will help “Ground”? If they simply don’t like documentaries, they will have to go with horror-thriller “Disturbed” or (and I really hope not) Hlynur Palmason’s weird new 61-minute “Joan of Arc” a sort of companion piece to the dull “The Love That Remains” about kids shooting arrows at a statue (?!). 

IRELAND- “A Quiet Love” Ireland starting sending films to the Oscars in 2007 and have submitted more or less regularly since 2014. Irish-language film production is up and the majority of their submissions were made in Irish, although they’ve also submitted Irish-made documentaries made in Lebanon, Palestine and Ukraine, and fiction features set in Cuba and the former Yugoslavia. This year, they have three good Irish-language options- “Aontas”, an all-women heist noir thriller told backwards…..murder mystery “The Drowned”....and “A Quiet Love”, a documentary about three deaf couples and the first-ever film made in Irish Sign Language. Their fourth option, “The Siege of Paradise” (Tribeca), is an Italian-language documentary about over-tourism in Cinque Terre....but it was made by the same director as last year…and most countries like to spread the wealth. I’m personally hoping they choose one of the thrillers in the beautiful Irish language….but I’m expecting “A Quiet Love” will be Garry Keane’s third doc to go to the Oscars for Ireland, following "Gaza" and the Oscar-worthy "In the Shadow of Beirut". “Aontas”, which looks fascinating, is the one I most want to see. 

Italy- "La grazia" I'm waiting until Italy announces its longlist, sometime around September 17. But I have a feeling it could be Paolo Sorrentino's "La grazia"....However, several big-name directors (Nanni Moretti, Gianni Amelio, Mario Martone) and others have new films premiering in Venice and rolling into Italian cinemas in the coming weeks. 

Luxembourg- “Child (Le refuge)” Little Luxembourg is most proud of its role as a “co-producer” of major films (including “It Was Just an Accident” last year) but they also produce a small number of majority Luxembourgian productions, some of which are in the Luxembourgish language. This year, they have two main contenders- (1)- “Apples & Pears” is a road movie about a shy 18-year old who follows the travel itinerary of her outgoing, extroverted sister to honor her after her tragic death; (2)- “Child” is a chilling horror-drama about mild-mannered parents who become involved with criminal organ trafficking networks to save the life of their young child. “Child” is the feature debut of the director of “The Red Suitcase”, an 18-minute short film that became the first-ever majority Luxembourg production to be nominated for an Oscar in 2023. So, they have two great, low-key options….one in the national language, and one by an actual Oscar nominee….It’s a dead heat but I predict “Child”. I heard someone predict “We’ll Find Happiness”, but director Lea Pool is Canadian and Luxembourg almost always chooses local filmmakers (the only exception was “Tel Aviv on Fire”).

MALTA- “Zejtune” Malta probably came incredibly close to the shortlist a few years ago for “Luzzu”, a really wonderful film that I was privileged to see in a Maltese cinema. Director Alex Camilleri has a new film this year, “Zejtune”, that won Best Screenplay in Tribeca. It’s about a young Maltese woman preparing to emigrate who meets an old man that starts changing her mind about her own country. It got a local release in April and it’s certain to represent Malta….if they enter. Last year, Malta had one of the most charming comedies of 2025 - “Ciao Ciao” - and the Maltese committee controversially decided to send nothing at all. "Ciao Ciao" was fantastic and the decision was disgraceful! 

Netherlands- “Our Girls” Once an Oscar powerhouse in the 1990s, the Netherlands hasn’t been nominated since 2003 and hasn’t been shortlisted since 2014. They announced a few weeks ago that six films had registered to represent the Netherlands and they have a bit of an odd situation. Last year, the favorite was “Our Girls” by Mike van Diem, the last director to bring home an Oscar for the Netherlands way back in 1998 (“Character”). Van Diem has only made three films since then and “Our Girls” has gotten very strong reviews for its dark look at two close families whose lives are changed after their teenaged daughters are involved in a near-fatal accident. Although it was the clear favorite last year, the Netherlands surprised everyone by picking “Reedland’, an odd, arty mystery with poor reviews. It appears that the clever producers of “Our Girls” quickly canceled the film's September 2025 Oscar-qualifying release and resubmitted it this year, where it again is the favorite. This year’s six contenders include three dramas- “Our Girls”, plus “A Family” (Berlin, 14+) and “Honestly, I’m Fine”- plus two documentaries – “House of Hope” (Palestine) and “Paikar” (an Afghan family), plus an amateurish children’s cartoon based on a TV show (“Ellie the Elephant”). Other than “Ellie”, these are all very well-regarded films. Since last year, “Our Girls” won Best Film at the Netherlands’ Golden Calf Awards and did very well at the box-office. How will the committee react to them entering a second time? I’m pretty confident “Our Girls” will go, but if the committee stands by their decision from last year,then Palestinian documentary “House of Hope” could stand to benefit. Last year's AMPAS International Film committee picked three Palestinian films for their 15-film shortlist last year so “House of Hope”, made by a Dutch director at a school in the Occupied West Bank, is also very possible…though “Our Girls” would clearly be a better choice. In a distant 3^rd place: “A Family”.

Norway- “Growth of the Soil” Norway is Oscar reigning champion this year, for the first time in Oscar history. Last year, "Sentimental Value" made Norway the third Nordic country to win the International Feature award. I was going to predict “Kjærast” by Erik Poppe, but Norway announced its shortlist on August 19 and it’s not on it. I’m glad I didn’t spend too much time researching Norway because two of their three shortlisted films are doing qualifying releases and I would not have expected them to be eligible. The three finalists are (1)- “Growth of the Soil” (Toronto), an old-fashioned drama set in rural Norway, and an adaptation of a Nobel Prize-winning novel, (2)- “Low Expectations” (Cannes), about a depressed musician who returns to her hometown after her career falls apart, and (3)- “Trango”, a Himalayan mountain climbing documentary. “Growth of the Soil” looks the most impressive and is by an established director….It also looks dreadfully old-fashioned. “Trango” was successful at the box-office but the Norwegian committee may remember that another man-against-nature documentary ("Songs of Earth") was the only time in the past six years they weren't strong in this category ("War Sailor" wasn't shortlisted but was rumored to be incredibly close). I’m actually not sure which of the two they’ll pick....But "Trango" just lost Best Documentary Feature at the Norwegian Amanda Awards (it was favored to win) so for now I’ll guess “Growth of the Soil”. 

PORTUGAL- “Maria Vitoria” Portugal holds the record for the most submissions (42!) without getting nominated (or even shortlisted). Last week, their Academy announced a shortlist of six little-known dramas - “18 Holes to Paradise” (about a large provincial family), “First Person Plural” (a weird drama about a couple on a post-COVID anniversary trip), “Maria Vitória” (about a female footballer and her estranged brother), “Projecto Global” (a political thriller about a far-left terrorist group), “The Scent of Things Remembered” (about a Portuguese war veteran and his African caretaker) and “Terra Vil” (a 12-year old and his alcoholic father). With no frontrunner, I could see any of these films (except “First Person Plural” which has pretty terrible reviews) representing Portugal. Thriller “Projecto Global” is the “big” and expensive (by Portuguese standards, anyway) option, while the relatively low-key “Maria Vitoria” arguably has the strongest reviews, “Scent of Things Remembered” won most of the Audience Awards at the national Sophia Awards, showing popular local support, while “18 Holes to Paradise” has actress starpower, a director who has been shortlisted before (“Mosquito”) and looks far more accessible than the other three. None of them seem likely to break the Portuguese Oscar curse. I’m not sure which of these four they’ll pick…it looks like a 4-way tie. Out of curiosity, I asked Google Gemini and it said “Projecto Global” would be picked. But that looks too action-packed for a Portuguese Academy that likes their films slow and introspective….So, I’m predicting the documentary-style cinema verite of the well-reviewed “Maria Vitoria”, though I’m personally hoping it’s “18 Holes to Paradise” since it’s the only one I actually want to see. I was surprised to see "I Only Rest in the Storm" (Cannes), "Lavagante" and "Night Passengers" absent from the shortlist. Did they not apply?

Spain- “La bola negra” There’s a nine-film “longlist” of Spanish films that have supposedly registered....Another list says there are 13…I’m not sure if either of these are real but let’s assume the 9-film list is because three of the films seem 95% locked to be on Spain’s traditional 3-film shortlist, which is scheduled to be announced next week, on Thursday, September 3.  These three are: “La Bola Negra” and “The Beloved” (both from Cannes, and each co-starring one half of power couple Bardem and Cruz) plus Goya winner “Sundays”.  

I’d find it hard to believe that any of the other six (ten?) rumored films have any chance. Almodovar’s “Bitter Christmas” was in Cannes Main Competition alongside “Beloved” and “La Bola Negra”…but reviews have been unenthusiastic (but I still want to see it!) and Almodovar is also a producer for “La Bola Negra” so he won’t be “snubbed”. The three character studies- “La luz” (a priest with a secret), “Corredora” (a female athlete) and “Viva” (a cancer survivor)-  are well-liked…but just not as well-liked as “Beloved”, “Bola” and “Sundays”. “5 dias con Lara” (a transgender story) and “Dos dias” (a man with Alzheimers) have very good reviews…but they’re such small and obscure titles that they are running uphill. But if there is a tie and a fourth film goes through (as happened once in 2013) or if there is a shock upset, I expect “Dos dias” could go through. The longer rumored list includes "Another League", "I Won't Die for Love", "A Son" and "This Body of Mine"....all with good reviews but unlikely to dislodge the Top 3. 

But the three frontrunners are going to be a bloodbath. “La bola Negra”, an epic film about the LGBT experience during three eras of Spanish history has the best overall reviews, a Best Director award from Cannes, and the most buzz, as well as Oscar royalty Glenn Close and Penelope Cruz in the supporting cast. “Beloved” is a father-daughter drama starring Javier Bardem as a temperamental film director, and is directed by Oscar nominee Rodrigo Sorogoyen, who was stupidly not sent in 2022 (“Las bestias”) when the Spanish Academy sent the sleep-inducing Carla Simon a second time. So he is owed a spot. “Sundays” won Best Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay at the Goyas (defeating last year’s submission and Oscar nominee “Sirat”) for its story of a driven young woman who shocks her family by announcing she is joining a convent, showing strong industry support. So it’s an embarrassment of riches! All three would make a great submission for Spain. And by choosing one, Spain will open the floodgates to complaints from fans of the other two. “La bola negra” is the favorite and my prediction; but I wouldn’t count out “The Beloved” if Javier starts to get Best Actor buzz. 

SWEDEN- “Brace Your Heart” This was clearly a weak year for Sweden. Although the eligibility period is October 1, 2025-September 30, 2026, they didn’t shortlist any films released in the first 11 ½ months of the year. I didn’t do too much research before they announced their shortlist on August 20, but I was predicting they’d shortlist “Brace Your Heart”, "The Quiet Beekeeper" and “The Swedish Connection” with “Brace Your Heart” winning going to the Oscars. They did shortlist Sami drama “Brace Your Heart” (Toronto), but the other two films on the list won’t actually be widely released until later this year - (1)- “Adult Supervision” (aka "Archipelago"), a comedy-drama about three fathers premiering in October, starring Gustaf Skarsgård (the less famous brother of Alexander and Bill; he starred in “The Vikings”) and Fares Fares; and (2)- “Bloody Men”, premiering in November, about a 7-year old and his fantasy world in 1980s Sweden.  Nobody has seen any of these three movies, so it’s impossible to know which one is best. But since “Brace Your Heart”, a drama about a young woman who inherits her father’s reindeer herd, actually got picked for a major festival, that’s my prediction. It’s in the minority Sami language and is the most serious of the three entries. “Bloody Men”, based on a popular novel, should come second or could win if "Brace Your Heart" wins the Platform Award in Toronto. “Adult Supervision” seems to be the longest shot…but who knows? 

Switzerland- “Who Is Still Alive” It must have been a weak year for Switzerland. They shortlisted three films, all made by directors from the country’s French-speaking sector, and only one was actually made in Switzerland. The three finalists were “Cosmos”, an overlong Mexican drama in Spanish, “Silent Rebellion”, a period drama set during WWII Switzerland about a village’s hostile reception to refugees fleeing Nazi-occupied France, and “Who Is Still Alive”, an Arabic-language documentary about nine survivors of Israeli strikes in Gaza. This was clearly decided between “Rebellion” and “Who Is Still Alive”, both of which premiered in Venice last year…but “Who Is Still Alive” had far better reviews and is clearly the more topical choice. After the shortlist announcement, it was obvious that this would be the film that would be picked, and Switzerland confirmed it on August 13. I've seen "Who Is Still Alive", which is an important film that highlights the lives of ordinary Gazans (including social media influencers, artists, doctors and filmmakers) and showing the world that the territory was much more than a Hamas stronghold.     

United Kingdom- “Effi o Blaenau” Until around 2003, the Oscars had a rule that International Film submissions had to be made in a language indigenous to the submitting country. Because of this, from 1993-2008, all UK submissions were made by Welsh filmmakers and were at least partially in the Welsh language. Asif Kapadia (who later won an Oscar for "Amy") was selected by the UK for the Hindi-language film "The Warrior" but it was disqualified and this was one of the instances that led to the rule change. Since the rule change, BAFTA now usually sends films made by British filmmakers working outside the UK. Since 2009, only two of the 14 British submissions were Welsh and there have been zero since 2015. The other twelve films were set in Afghanistan, Germany, India, Iran (twice), Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey (twice) and Zambia. Seven of these were made by diaspora filmmakers. 

Welsh cinema has been on the rise recently and I’m predicting Britain returns to Wales for the first time in a decade with “Effi o Blaenau”, probably the best-reviewed Welsh film in years and made by a well-respected filmmaker who repped the UK in 2011. Based on a Greek tragedy, it’s about a hard-partying girl from the countryside who experiences a major life change. This would be a strong acknowledgement of local Celtic cinema in a country that has recently preferred stories from the Global South. Also very possible: documentary “One in a Million”, following the life of a Syrian refugee girl between the ages of 11 and 21 and “Cielo”, a UK production made in Bolivia following a little Indigenous girl through Fellini-esque magical realism. Less likely: documentary “Something Familiar” (a Romanian adoptee) and docudrama “Without Permission” (made in Iran by the director of their 2022 submission “Winners”). 

THE AMERICAS- Predictions for International Feature Film 2026-2027

And here are the expected candidates from the Americas.....El Salvador, the only country in the Latin America never to submit a film, has formed a selection committee for the first time. 

Last year, I predicted more than half of these correctly....I'm hoping to do even better this year and already have one right thanks to the Dominican Republic which became the first country to announce with cross-cultural love story "Melodrama"

ARGENTINA- “Glaxo” As always, Argentina has plenty to choose from. Two well-known (and previously submitted) directors have new films- Oscar winner Juan José Campanella’s geriatric dramedy “Strangers in the Park” and three-time Palme d’Or/Golden Bear nominee Lucretia Martel’s documentary “Our Land”. Add to that six new festival films- “Glaxo” (Toronto), “The Match” (Cannes), “Rosa and the Wind Phone” (Mar de Plata), “The River Train” (Berlin), “27 Nights” (San Sebastian) and “Virgin of the Quarry” (Sundance), plus two upcoming last-minute releases (which Argentina often picks) with big stars - Luis Machin’s “Barreda” and Ricardo Darin’s “Lo dejamos aca”,. "Dejamos" is theoretically releasing directly to Netflix...but they frequently will put a movie in theatres for a week to win awards. That’s probably Argentina Top Ten....

Apparently, they are announcing a four-film shortlist in September so four of those ten films are in, and six are out. I predict the lucky four will be "Glaxo", "Lo dejamos aca", "Our Land" and "Strangers in the Park". I'm putting my money on "Glaxo", the new noir mystery (Argentina's favorite genre) by Benjamin Naishtat. Naishtat was the favorite in 2023 (Argentina ultimately chose the messy "The Delinquents" over Naishtat's more mainstream "Puan") so he is definitely owed. Campanella is a beloved Oscar winner but "Strangers in the Park", about the friendship between two elderly men, isn't on the same level as "Secret in Their Eyes"....."Our Land", Martel's documentary about land encroachment against Indigenous people, is possible...though her films are an acquired taste. Argentina loves Ricardo Darin and his thriller "Lo dejamos aca" is absolutely a frontrunner but it's only 50-50 that the film will get into local cinemas. Nationalist football documentary "The Match" (which explores the country's World Cup heritage and anti-UK sentiment over the Falkland Islands) and the Argentine Carrie ("Virgin of the Quarry", which I predicted last year) are the most likely alternates for the final shortlist spot if "Lo dejamos aca" doesn't enter the race. 

Can Naishtat beat Darin? If it's on the shortlist, "Lo dejamos aca" is the most likely to overthrow "Glaxo". 

BOLIVIA- “La hija condor” Cinematically, Bolivia is one of my favorite countries in Latin America and I’ve had the privilege to meet some of their best filmmakers while living there. This year, they have two strong options- (1)- “La hija condor” (The Condor Daughter), about an indigenous Quechua girl trained to be a traditional midwife but who dreams of being a singer in the city, and (2)- “Cielo”, a gorgeous-looking “magical realism” film about a little Indigenous girl trying to help her deceased mother cross over to the heaven. “La hija condor” has a Bolivian director and is a mostly national production while “Cielo” is a UK production with a Spanish director. Both have great reviews but I think “Condor Daughter” will get this.

BRAZIL- “On Behalf of My Son” On August 18, Brazil announced that 15 films had registered to go to Hollywood. On September 9, they’re scheduled to announce six semi-finalists and one week later on September 16, they’ll announce the film that will represent Brazil. It’s a very obscure list….As far as I can tell, only seven have played at festivals (5 at Berlin, 1 at San Sebastian and one premiering soon in Toronto), and only one has reached 300 votes on IMDB ("Night Stage")…not a very high number. Only two directors – Marcelo Gomes (“Cinema, Aspirin and Vultures”) and Gabriel Martins (“Mars One”)- have represented Brazil before.

As I see it, here are the five tiers:

Strongest Contenders- 100 dias, Gugu’s World (Berlin K+ Winner 2026), On Behalf of My Son (Martins; Toronto 2026)

Likely to be on the Shortlist- Five Kinds of Fear, Malês, The Nature of Invisible Things (Berlin K+ 2025)

Possible for the Shortlist- Dolores (Gomes; San Sebastian), The Fabulous Time Machine (Berlin K+), Night Stage (Berlin Panorama 2025)

Unlikely- Narcisa’s Will, Our Secret (Berlin Perspectives), Papagaios

Likely Out of the Running- Around the Corner, The Condor Conspiracy, The King of the Internet

I’m feeling good about these six films making the shortlist….Let’s take a quick look:

1.      100 dias is an adventure film based on the true story of a man who traveled from Namibia to Brazil in a rowboat in 1984. It’s one of the most hotly anticipated Brazilian films of the year and is the live-action debut of Oscar-nominated animator Carlos Saldanha. It’s arranging a qualifying release, which usually indicates it’s a frontrunner and it’s the film I hear the most people mentioning as the likely Brazilian candidate....But nobody has seen it.....

2.      Five Kinds of Fear seems to have the best reviews among the non-festival entries, and I think they’ll reward it with a spot on the 6-film shortlist. It’s a gritty multi-strand drama where five storylines set in the inland city of Cuiabá (I've been there!) gradually begin to intersect.

3.      Gugu’s World won Best Film at the Berlin K+ competition this year for its gentle story of an effeminate 11-year old Black boy desperately trying to hide his grandmother’s Alzheimer’s to avoid being sent to live with his abusive father. Very strong reviews (#1 on IMDB), and the only film that’s actually won a major award.

4.      Malês, the “biggest” film on the list, is a 19^th century period drama about the slave trade and a slave revolt that upended Brazilian history in 1835. The director is a respected 87-year old actor who directed his first film in 1978 and waited nearly 50 years to make his second. It’s likely to make it for both sentimental reasons and because the film is “important”.

5.      The Nature of Invisible Things has by far the most festival play of any of the films and the best reviews on aggregator sites (3.9 on Letterboxd). It’s a tender coming-of-age drama about the friendship between two young girls.

6.      On Behalf of My Son, by the director of “Mars One”, is a drama due to premiere in the Platforms Section in Toronto (and thus hoping for an automatic entry to the Oscars), about an elderly woman visiting the families of the victims of a deadly accident (or was it??) caused by her dead son.

And the others? Director Marcelo Gomes is well-respected and “Dolores”, a drama about three generations of women, looks solid but reviews don’t look as enthusiastic as the predicted six. Queer erotic drama “Night Stage” got festival play and is the only film available in the United States, but may be “too gay” for the Oscars. And quiet 70-minute documentary “Fabulous Time Machine”, about girls growing up in fiercely macho rural Brazil, has good reviews but it probably too “small”. Any of them could make the shortlist though I doubt any would have a chance at winning the nomination.

Ultimately, I think this will go to one of the new films- “100 dias” or “On Behalf of My Son”…but as I write this entry, nobody has seen either. Last year, Brazil confirmed that picking the “big” film (“Secret Agent” instead of “Manas”) is a smart move.  That bodes well for “100 dias”. But for reasons I don’t understand I am feeling that “On Behalf of My Son” is the one. In 3^rd place- “Gugu", 3rd- “Nature” and 5^th- “Five Kinds of Fear”.

CANADA- “Cost of Heaven” Canada’s film used to basically be synonymous with Quebec. From 1971-2021, all but three Canadian submissions were made by French-Canadian filmmakers and were mostly in French. (The three exceptions were Indigenous filmmaker Zacharias Kunuk, Anglo-Canadian Attila Bertalan and Indian immigrant filmmaker Deepa Mehta). That changed in 2022. Since then, none of the four Canadian submissions have been primarily in French, and only Kurdish-Quebecois director Zayne Akyol was French-Canadian.

This year, Canada has one of the most interesting races of the year….Tons of great options and no frontrunner....I’m stumped! I see nine real possibilities- (1)- “Cost of Heaven” (Toronto), a thriller about a man in debt, (2)- “Follies” (Locarno), a sex farce about a married couple who decides to experiment, (3)- “Labrador- Autopsy of Silence” (Tribeca), a slow-moving, arthouse mystery set aboard a cargo ship, (4)- “Montréal, ma belle”, a drama about a Chinese immigrant (Joan Chen) who begins a lesbian affair late in life, (5)- “Nina Roza”, a Bulgarian-language film that won the Silver Bear for Best Screenplay in Berlin and is about a Bulgarian-Canadian returning home for the first time in decades,(6)- “Paradise” (Berlin), by an Oscar-nominated Short director, about the lives of two young men, one in Ghana and one in Canada; (7)- “Redemptions”, a thriller about a retired hit man forced to do one last job, (8)- “We’ll Find Happiness”, a drama directed by Lea Pool, already on VOD in the USA, about two gay Muslim immigrants trying to stave off deportation from Canada and (9)- “Wrong Husband” (Berlin/Toronto), a mystical Inuktikut-language fairy tale. And I only researched films from the French and Inuk communities!…It’s possible they have some diaspora option I don’t know about. 

I have no idea which of these great options they’ll choose…It’s one of the closest races in the world this year. As an experiment, I picked my Top Three…and then I asked AI to pick its Top Three. Only one film matched both lists- “Cost of Heaven”, the thriller about a 50-year old man deep in debt, taking desperate measures to survive. It also looks the most Oscar-friendly. So, that’s my prediction. But the Canadian Academy loves to highlight “multicultural Canada” so I predict the starpower of Joan Chen’s “Montreal ma belle” (in French and Chinese) will come second, the Berlin award of “Nina Roza” (in Bulgarian, French and English) will come third, with “Paradise” fourth, and LGBT asylum drama “We’ll Find Happiness” in fifth. But all of these would be great for Canada. 

CHILE- “The Red Hangar” (Hangar rojo) Chile announced earlier this month that eleven films were being considered to represent the country, including two set in the 1970s during the early days of the Pinochet era (“The Chilean” and “The Red Hangar”), two set inthe 1980s during the waning days of the Pinochet era (“After the Fog” and “Summer War”) and three set in the early 1990s during the early days of the post-Pinochet era (“Cuerpo Celeste”, “Left Unsaid” and “The Meltdown”). That's a lot of nostalgia! With many Chilean artists  horrified by the election of a right-wing Pinochet apologist as President this year (his opponent was a far-left Communist, leaving centrists without a candidate), this makes sense. Also on Chile's shortlist are two more dramas (“Mil pedazos” and “La perra”), a migration documentary (“Unwelcomed”), and an unconventional B&W punk superhero comedy (“Matapanki”). Ironically, five of these are also coming-of-agers about young girls....will they all cancel each other out? 

The two frontrunners appear to be the two 70s dramas- “The Chilean” (which premiered in Locarno this week) and “The Red Hangar” (Berlin Perspectives). I was all set to predict “The Chilean”, a biopic about a Chilean socialist/anarchist/ saboteur/emigre living in 1970s Italy, but reviews have been decidedly mixed. So I'm switching to the black-and-white “The Red Hangar”, about how good people are tempted into evil during the earliest days of Pinochet’s reign of terror. I think this will resonate with American audiences suffering under Trump….so it’s probably the better choice. Do any of the other films have a chance? Probably not…most of them have good reviews but none have great reviews. But since I usually give a Top 5, I think the strongest runner-ups are “The Meltdown” (Cannes UCR), possibly the best of the five girl-coming-of-age dramas, “Matapanki”, a low-budget and fiercely original comedy that actually has the most enthusiastic reviews of the bunch, and topical immigration documentary “Unwelcomed”. 

COLOMBIA- “Barrio Triste” Colombia has had a relatively quiet year but they have several promising entries in Toronto, and a lot will depend on how good the new films are and how fast they can get them into theatres. Up until now, Colombia has three main possibilities- “Barrio Triste” (Venice Orizzonti 25), about a gang of youths who steal a video camera and use it to document their lives, “Noviembre” (Toronto Discovery 25), a fictionized retelling about a group of hostages hiding during a real-life 1985 terrorist attack, and “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance 25), a queer punk retelling of Dante’s Inferno. (It looks like Gregg Araki and I have to see it....) But premiering in Toronto, we have “Where the River Begins”, about a woman who flees her Bogota ghetto for the countryside, and “Bovine with the Curved Horns”, a magical realism story about an Indigenous boy searching for his father. I doubt those two will be released in cinemas this year, but it is possible....But Colombia will probably pick one of the first three. “Barrio Triste” looks like the sort of gritty, urban film Colombia usually sends to the Oscars, while “Rains Over Babel” has the best overall reviews and has won awards with American audiences….(well...gay American audiences...)…It’s a confusing race. I’m predicting “Barrio Triste”, with “Babel” in a close 2nd place, and “Where the River Begins” in 3rd, but probably eligible next year. 

COSTA RICA- “If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night” Little Costa Rica has a tough race! Already released this year are “If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night” (Si no ardemos, como iluminar la noche), which won Best Costa Rican Film at their national film festival, “The Skin of the Water” (La Piel del Agua), their 2025 Goya submission, which got Costa Rica its third-ever Goya nomination, plus “Abril”, by Hernan Jimenez, who directed Costa Rica’s best-ever Oscar submission (the charming rom-com Entre nosotros). Of these three, sexual abuse drama “If We Don’t Burn” will be certain to be selected.  But wait! Costa Rica won Best Actress at Cannes Un Certain Regard for “Forever Your Maternal Animal” (Siempre soy tu animal materno), a female-driven family drama, and Paulina Garcia is headlining “Love is the Monster” (Amor es el monstruo), a buzzy thriller due to premiere in Toronto about a grandmother whose granddaughter is kidnapped while in her care. Those two do not have release dates yet. “If We Don’t Burn” seems most likely but watch out if Paulina can get her film into cinemas by September 30.

CUBA- “Baracoa” Cuba was a regular participant at the Oscars from 1987-1997 and again (more or less) from 2002-2020, netting one Oscar nomination for “Strawberry & Chocolate”.  Since the pandemic, they’ve only sent one film….and that film was assigned to Oscar voters and then mysteriously deleted from the Oscar Screening Room before it was downloaded. With political tensions with the U.S. running high and electricity running low, it’s unlikely Cuba will be back but I should note that their Havana Film Festival did take place in December and they had three new local features in competition - LGBT dramedy “Cherri”, tragicomedy “Neurotic Anonymous” (directed by actor Jorge Perugorria) and political spy thriller “Nora”.  However, their biggest contender of the year is clearly Italian co-production “Baracoa”, an eccentric road movie about a bitter young man and a drag queen doctor. The movie makes Cuba look absolutely gorgeous and it's probably the Latin American film I most want to see from this list. Spain-based Pavel Giroud, who has been picked to rep Cuba twice, has a new spy comedy that he made in Germany, about a plot to assassinate Fidel Castro…That will definitely not be sent.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Melodrama” Last week, the Dominican Republic became the first Latin American country to announce. I got it right!....Here's what I wrote prior to the announcement: 

The Dominican Republic made the dumbest decision in the world last year, sending “Pepe” – quite possibly the worst film I’ve ever seen- instead of “La Bachata de Bionico”, which I haven’t seen but which got great reviews, won Best Picture at the national La Silla awards, and simply couldn’t have been worse.  Last year was very strong for the Dominicans…This year is a bit weaker but but the island country still has plenty of options. The best-reviewed film of the year is probably “Melodrama”, about the romance between a wealthy Dominican widow and a Haitian migrant worker. It challenges racial and social constructs in the multicultural Dominican Republic. But last year, the DR showed they cared more about festival play than quality, which means they could pick “Don’t Come Out” (No salgas), a lesbian thriller that played at Berlin 14+, and which is a particularly traumatic coming-out story. Three well-known directors also have new films- Leticia Tonos has been picked four times (more than any other director) and she has a well-reviewed new music biopic – “Milly: Queen of Merengue”…though American audiences clearly won’t know or care who Milly is; Laura Amelia Guzmán and Israel Cárdenas (selected twice before) have comedy-drama “Interior Apartment Day”; and Angel Muniz, the first-ever director to represent the DR at the Oscars in the 1990s has “Man’s Game”, about a young baseball player who comes out as gay. Two dark horses: the DR has never picked a documentary but abortion doc “Scarlet Girls” is one of the best-reviewed Dominican films of the year (abortion is illegal in the DR in all cases, including rape). “Under the Same Sun” (Toronto), a 19^th century period drama, would be at the top of the list but it has a Spanish director. That’s seven interesting options! While I think “Melodrama” will win, “Under the Same Sun”, “Don’t Come Out” and “Milly: Queen of Merengue” (in that order) also have a chance to be selected.

ECUADOR- “The Ivy (La hiedra)” Ecuador has an interesting choice this year between creepy-looking arthouse favorite “The Ivy” (La hiedra), and the locally successfully jet-black comedy “Damned Old People” (Viejos Malditos). With awards at festivals like Venice (Horizons) and San Sebastian, it’s obvious that “The Ivy”, about the uncomfortable relationship between a 30-something woman and a local teen, is the frontrunner and will probably represent Ecuador. Director Ana Cristina Barragan's previous Oscar submission "Alba" was very good. Comedy “Viejos”, about a cranky old man, a cat and some nasty neighbors, was the top local hit of 2025…has reviews every bit as good as “Ivy”….But Ecuador’s submissions are usually dark and dramatic so my prediction is still “Ivy”. Unlikely: breast cancer documentary “Mama” .  In other news, Sebastian Cordero, Ecuador’s most famous international director has a majority-Colombian film coming out on Netflix but it looks like it won’t be ready by September 30.

EL SALVADOR- “Vértices” As menioned, El Salvador is the only Latin American country that has never entered the Oscar race. However, in August they announced that AMPAS had recognized a national selection committee and that they will announce their first-ever Oscar submission on September 18. However, it's unclear what they could send as their first-ever submission. The biggest film of the year about El Salvador - “Fireflies at El Mozote" - was a majority U.S. production (starring Mena Suvari! Remember her? Where's she been?) mostly in English.  Fun comedy “Wet Christmas” is the second-highest grossing Salvadoran film of all time…but it’s a slapstick comedy made by a local comedy troupe (many dressed in drag) about trying to sneak into the U.S. “Vértices”, about friends reuniting at a funeral after 30 years, looks far more serious but it’s only 60 minutes long. The same goes for “Cipactli: The Crocodile Goddess”, a documentary about the country’s Nahuatl indigenous heritage. Horror flick “Hospital” will premiere soon too. None of these look particularly promising but maybe they'll send "Vertices"? We'll soon see. 

GUATEMALA- “Cordillera de Fuego” Guatemala has submitted five films to the Oscars. Three of them were directed by Jayro Bustamente, who is working hard to develop Guatemala’s next generation of filmmakers. All four of Bustamente’s films were great although sadly his best one – LGBT drama “Temblores”- was the only one not sent to the Oscars. Anyway, it would be foolish to bet against Bustamente’s new film, “Cordillera de Fuego”, about a team of scientists trying to help an indigenous community evacuate a volcanic disaster. Hotly anticipated drama Nosotros, premiering in Toronto, is more likely to get a cinematic release next year…and its transgender themes may put off the same voters who decided not to submit Temblores. UPDATE: Guatemala announced that Cordillera de Fuego is one of two Oscar finalists, competing against Los imaginarios, said to be a confusing sci-fi effort.  Bustamente will get this easily.  

HAITI- “Marie Madeleine” Despite its political and economic chaos, Haiti has sent three films to the Oscars since 2017, which is pretty good considering how difficult it is to make films in the country. Gessica Geneus directed “Freda” and starred in “Kidnapping Inc.”. This year she did both in “Marie Madeleine”, which got a coveted slot in the Cannes Film Festival's Premiere sidebar this year. It’s about a prostitute in Jacmel (one of Haiti’s safer cities) who develops an unusual relationship with a local minister.  Haiti also has “The Tropic Sun and His Eyes” (Tribeca), which was made by a Haitian-American filmmaker in Cap-Haitien, another fairly safe city, about a man and a street kid searching Haiti for the man’s estranged father. Both of these films have wonderful reviews and would be great choices to represent Haiti’s beleaguered film industry…But Cannes trumps Tribeca. Expect “Marie Madeleine” to be on this year’s longlist and I can't wait to see it.

HONDURAS- “Eva” Honduras submitted films from 2017-2020. They have a very real possibility of returning this year with “Eva”, a drama about a trans woman who seeks to reconnect with her estranged son in order to get him to take care of the newborn daughter he has abandoned. Having been gone for five years, they'd need to get AMPAS to recognize a new committee. 

MEXICO- “On the Road” (En el camino) Mexico announced a month ago that 17 films had registered (15 fiction features and two documentaries) for the chance to represent Mexico at the Oscars. Four of them are directed by relatively big names- Jonas Cuaron, Gael Garcia Bernal, Diego Luna and Chile’s Maite Alberdi. 16 of these films have already been released so let’s look at those first.

Tier One:          Campeon Gabacho (Cuaron), Flies, On the Road, Sad Girlz

Tier Two:           Ashes (Luna), The Devil Smokes, Garden We Dreamed, The Reserve

Tier Three:       A Child of My Own (Alberdi), La eterna adolescente, Mutaciones, Oca

Tier Four:          Crocodiles, Don’t Leave the Kids Alone, Flamingos, Sobre las olas

So let’s look at Mexico’s top tier….

• Boxing drama “Campeon Gabacho” premiered at SXSW and has a recognizable cast of U.S. Latino and Mexican actors (including Ruben Blades, Cheech Marin and Rosario Dawson) acting opposite the star of “I’m No Longer Here”. More importantly, it’s produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron (the director’s papa). Reviews have been good (some say it’s overly sentimental…but is that bad when you’re trying to get an Oscar?) and it adds a heavy dose of magical realism to the traditional gritty world of boxing movies. 
• The low-profile “Sad Girlz”  has some of the best reviews of the group - it won the 14+ category at Berlinale this year, and it follows the lives of two teen swimmers and best friends in the aftermath of a sexual assault. Despite the great reviews, it's much more low-profile than the other three contenders so I'd say it's a long shot. 
• Gay trucker-meets-hustler drama “On the Road” got 13 Ariel nominations (including the Big 3) and a big win at Venice 2025 (Best Film, Orizzonti). It’s considered to be the favorite and I agree…It’s the one I hope goes to the Oscars. 
• Lastly, we have “Flies” (Berlin Main Competition, 2026), a dramedy about a solitary middle-aged woman who develops a friendship with her new lodger and his 9-year old son. Reviews are good but will Mexico want to pick two droll B+W comedy-dramas about grouchy old Mexican women living alone two years in a row? 

So, if the competition were held today, “On the Road” would probably get this, followed by  American-audience-friendly “Campeon Gabacho”, “Sad Girlz” and “Flies”, in that order. But wait! The one unreleased film is Gael Garcia Bernal’s hotly anticipated “Hombre el agua”, which will premiere in Venice and then Toronto, traditionally a great platform for Oscar hopefuls. We won’t know if the film is great or not until September but it’s a twisty psychological comedy-drama that looks very, very promising. It’s probably between “Hombre el agua” and “En el camino” but I’m sticking with “Camino” for now.

NICARAGUA- Nothing. Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2010 and I don’t think they’ve produced a national feature film since 2022. They definitely won’t submit this year, although they do have an artistic documentary called “My Skin and I” in post-production, which has Nicaraguan and American co-directors.

PANAMA- “Tropical Paradise” (Paraiso tropical)”  Panama has had a relatively weak year but they will likely submit “Paraiso tropical”, a documentary that won the Audience Award at IFF Panama. Director Abner Benaim has repped Panama three times and he was Oscar shortlisted for “Plaza Catedral”. His latest documentary examines a 1994 terrorist bombing, which investigators believe was carried out by Hezbollah, despite being thousands of miles away from the Middle East conflict. They don’t have many other serious contenders even though they did have seven local features at IFF Panama this year (3 fiction, 3 documentary and 1 hybrid). I suppose the runner-up could be “Fast Cash”, a ‘100% local’ action-thriller.  

PARAGUAY- “Narciso” Few countries have an easier decision this year than Paraguay. “Narciso” won the FIPRESCI Prize in Berlin this year for period thriller “Narciso”, which is a gorgeously filmed drama set amidst Paraguay’s Stroessner dictatorship in the 1950s. Reviews are very good and director Marcelo Martinessi previously directed “The Heiresses”, which was probably the closest Paraguay has come to the Oscar shortlist. It got a domestic release in April and, honestly, Paraguay doesn’t have any other strong options. It’s in and I can't wait to see it! 

PERU- “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables) Peru always has the most confusing race in Latin America because the country has odd film distribution problems….More so than any other country, local films tend to come out in cinemas 1-2 years after appearing on the film festival circuit. For example, 18^th century indigenous revolution drama “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables) premiered at the Lima Film Festival in 2024....but it is eligible this year. I'd love to know why. 

In recent years, the Peruvian Academy has shown a strong preference for the country’s small Indigenous-language cinema. In the past eight years, five submissions were dominated by Indigenous casts and stories, and a sixth film ("Song Without a Name") had an Indigenous lead. That's why “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables), written by filmmaker Óscar Catacora right before his untimely death at age 34, is my pick. Three other films I considered predicting (“1982”, “Anatomy of Horses” and “The Girls' Garden”) are all scheduled to be released in October and November 2026, which means they’ll be eligible next year…though Peru did do a qualifying release for the charming “Erection of Toribio Bardelli” in 2023. “1982”, about an Indigenous family forced to leave their home, is the most likely candidate to try this approach. Other options: “Heart of the Wolf” (Malaga), about a child who is kidnapped and forced to join the Shining Path terrorist group, is the latest from 77-year old senior director Francisco José Lombardi, who made six of the eight Peruvian films submitted to the Oscars between 1983 and 1999 (but Peru hasn't sent any of the seven films he has made since then); Los inocentes (San Sebastian) is about toxic masculinity and gangs; and well-reviewed documentaries Runa Simi (a quixotic quest to dub the Lion King musical into Quechua) and Uyariy (following the aftermath of Indigenous protests violently quashed by the government) have great reviews....but Peru has never selected a documentary. A lot depends on which of these films get screened and which ones submit themselves for consideration. “The Last Inca” feels like the safest bet but I’m not at all confident I got this one right.

PUERTO RICO- “Summer of Three” AMPAS invited Puerto Rico to send films to the Oscars from 1986-2010, but they were rudely and unfairly disinvited, supposedly because they are a U.S. territory. (Greenland and Hong Kong continue to be invited). Puerto Rico has a distinct, independent and accomplished local film industry, as evidenced by their 1990 Oscar nomination and 2024 Goya nomination. I assume AMPAS will one day correct their mistake and if it’s this year, the Puerto Ricans will be debating between two well-reviewed films from Tribeca - “Esta isla” and ”Summer of Three”, two very different movies about youth on a road trip. The higher-profile “Esta Isla” is about a mismatched teen couple fleeing a local crime lord while “Summer of Three” is a love triangle about a teen who joins an unconventional couple on a motorcycle trip following his grandfather’s funeral. These both have great reviews but I think “Summer of Three”, which will open the Puerto Rico Film Festival this month, would be the one picked if AMPAS has a change of heart.

SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Suriname, a Dutch-speaking country on South America's Caribbean coast, sent a single fiction film ("Wiren") in 2020. They’re unlikely to return, but they did have an interesting documentary last year called “Monikondee” that premiered in Suriname in November 2025. It’s about the riverboats that travel around Suriname’s wild jungle interior, transporting cargo to remote indigenous and Afro-communities. Sounds very interesting!

URUGUAY- “Loose End” Uruguay will probably be deciding between Daniel Hendler’s comedy caper “A Loose End” (Un cabo suelto) and Lucia Garibaldi’s quirky quasi-sci-fi-drama“Bright Future” (Un future brillante). Both films have very good reviews and would make very good choices. Hendler is a popular Uruguayan actor who works mostly in Argentina. Garibaldi won Best Director in Sundance for “Los tiburones” but wasn’t sent to the Oscars (the cute but forgettable “The Moneychanger” went instead). “Loose End” played at a major festival (Venice 25) and Hendler is a bigger name...plus the Uruguayan Academy usually selects comedies.....so I’m predicting “A Loose End”, a comedy about an Argentinian on the run who flees to Uruguay. There, he starts a new life and meets a bunch of warm, local Uruguayan characters. “Bright Future” is an odd drama about a woman who gets a job “up north” - a mysterious place from which nobody returns. Those are the two frontrunners but Gustavo Hernandez’s latest haunted house horror flick “The Whisper” and theatre drama “Fragile Like Glass” could appear if there is a shortlist.

VENEZUELA- "Death Has No Master" Unlike Cuba, Venezuela has continued to submit films to the Oscars despite economic collapse and tensions with the United States. This year, they have two films representing the country at festivals around the world. Asia Argento stars in thriller "Death Has No Master", which got great notices at Cannes. It's the story of an heiress who travels from Europe to Venezuela to inherit the family plantation, but gets a hostile (violent?) reaction from those living on the land. Looks Gothic and creepy and I'm excited to watch my screener next week. Edgar Ramirez co-stars in "It Would Be Night in Caracas" (Venice 2025), a political thriller about a woman trying to survive political turmoil and armed militias. Is the film too political? Is the committee political? (The Venezuelan committee usually chooses apolitical films but last year they picked a chavista one). "Death Has No Master" has better reviews and is less political so that's my guess. Dark horse: documentary "The Extraordinary Journey of Dragon" was the Venezuelan submission to both the Spanish Goyas and the Argentinian AMPAS Awards last year.