EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Film

It's that time of year again! Greetings from beautiful Baku, Azerbaijan. 

I planned to skip my predictions this year as I didn't love most of the 72 submissions I watched last year...but I found some free time....Yesterday, SLOVAKIA became the first country to announce their submission ("The Flood")....and I've already got one wrong...... Last year, I did terribly...predicting only 7 out of 20 countries correctly.

But here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe- 

ALBANIA- “Man of the House” It’s difficult to see Albania choosing anything besides “Man of the House” (Sarajevo ’25), a film about Albania's unique tradition of “sworn virgins” – women who for various reasons live their lives as men from an early age. This film introduces us to Fran, who has always lived her life this way but is confronted with maternal feelings when she is required to take care of an orphaned niece. Albania doesn't have anything else that would be serious enough to send so this should be an easy choice.

ARMENIA- “Outliving Shakespeare” Armenia’s Film Awards this year were dominated by “In the Land of Arto” (Locarno), a French co-production about a Frenchwoman who travels to Armenia to register the death of her Armenian husband, but who learns that everything he ever told her of his life was a lie. Film reviewers describe the film using words like “enigmatic”, “thoughtful” and “heavy-handed”.....in other words, very, very mixed......Director Tamara Stepanyan was picked last year for documentary “My Armenian Phantoms”, so I predict Armenia will send “Outliving Shakespeare”, which won Best Documentary Feature at the national Anahit Awards. It’s about an eccentric theatre troupe run out of a retirement community that performs Shakespeare. The film is directed by Inna Sahakyan who made the absolutely beautiful “Aurora’s Sunrise” that represented Armenia a few years ago. Also possible: revenge drama “Thus Spoke the Wind”, which looks quite good.

AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev IV: School” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscars last year with “Taghiyev: Oil”, the first of a tetralogy (I just learned that word today…It’s the four-film version of a trilogy!) of big-budget biopics about the life of oil magnate Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. I hate biopics and I’m not a huge fan of period dramas...but “Taghiyev: Oil” was quite good and definitely the best Azerbaijani submission I've seen so far. The first two Taghiyev films (“Oil” and “Tsar”) were released in last year’s Oscar calendar year and the final two (“Sona” and “School”) are eligible this year. I think they’ll pick the concluding chapter - “Taghiyev IV: School” - which is about Taghiyev’s successful efforts to launch Azerbaijan's first school for girls, over the objections of backwards Islamic clerics. The third film ("Sona") is about his controversial marriage to a teenager so it’s clear to me they’ll send the final film instead. Oh, and the four films are produced by the daughter of the President....which is another reason I'm pretty sure they'll submit this year. 

BELARUS- “One for Two” Belarus submitted films from 1994-1996 and then again from 2018-2020 but they’ve been absent since before the Russian Oscar boycott of 2022. Most of their films are co-productions with Russia and they’re unlikely to return this year. Their national film festival featured a big Belarusian adventure film this year (“The Black Castle”) but it was released too early to compete. Their best bet would be “One for Two”, a patriotic film based on the true story of two military pilots who courageously died steering a jet away from a residential area in 2021.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Testament” Bosnia has had a very quiet year. I think it may be the first year ever that there were no Bosnian-majority productions premiering at the Sarajevo Film Festival. I see their only two options as “Otter”, a Montenegrin co-production with a Bosnian director, and popular village comedy “Testament”.  “Otter” is the more serious of the two. This coming-of-age drama (also in contention for MONTENEGRO) premiered at the Sarajevo Film Festival last year and is directed by Srđan Vuletić, who I think is the only Bosnian Serb ever to represent Bosnia at the Oscars. His “It’s Hard to Be Nice” was one of my two favorite Bosnian submissions (alongside the Oscar-nominated “Quo Vadis, Aida?”). “Testament” is a comedy about local inheritance traditions and is set in the early 1990s when Bosnia was on the brink of war. It has the disadvantage of being a sequel to local hit film “Father’s Last Wish”, which was released in 2022. Last year, Bosnia picked a dull documentary over a wonderfully dark comedy (“Pavilion”) but that film had a Golden Bear winner behind it. So, I’m predicting “Testament”.

BULGARIA- “Made in EU” The Bulgarian Academy definitely has a few favorite directors that they just love. Since 2009, they’ve sent 17 films - three made by Stephan Komandarev, three by the duo of Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov and two films each by Milko Lazarov and Ivaylo Hristov. Komandarev and Grozeva/Valchanov have new movies this year – COVID drama “Made in EU” and dark scammer comedy “Black Money for White Nights” (Karlovy Vary) – which automatically makes them the frontrunners on paper. But both of these very prolific directors have had films that weren’t selected so “Lust” (Berlinale Forum), “Women Out of Order”, and especially “Wild Strawberries” are also in play. Bulgaria has three main film festival/award ceremonies. “Made in EU” won the 2025 Best Film Award at the Golden Rose Film Festival (the other four films weren’t eligible), “Women Out of Order” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia Film Festival, while last year’s Oscar submission “Tarika” won Best Film at the Bulgarian Academy Awards.  I think Komandarev will get this for “Made in EU” because it’s the most high-profile, although it’s “Wild Strawberries”, a lighthearted dramedy about a Bulgarian-American who inherits a countryside house from the grandmother she never met, that has the best reviews of the year. I predict “Made in EU”, followed by ‘cruel but hilarious’ (according to Hollywood Reporter) “Black Money for White Nights” and “Strawberries” a very close third thanks to its great reviews…The other two are out of their league. PS- Some people are talking about Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Dream Adventurer”, but that’s a majority German production.

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” Croatia always picks a movie from their national Pula Film Festival although which one they choose is often a surprise. The “Best Croatian Film” award has only matched their Oscar submission three of the past ten years (“Tereza37”, “On the Other Side” and “Mali”), while Best Director matches up somewhat more often (5/10).  This year’s three frontrunners are dramas “Honey Bunny” (Best Film, Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress) and “God Will Not Help” (Best Cinematography, Score), plus raucous comedy “The Wedding” (Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, Casting and Best Producer…an award I’ve never understood). I’m predicting “God Will Not Help”, largely because it's the only one that got screened at a major festival (Locarno 2025). It’s a tense period drama about a Spanish-speaking woman who arrives in a Croatian village claiming to be the widow of a family’s long-lost son. “Honey Bunny”, a family drama about two sisters, clearly has fans from Pula (where it won Best Film) and will finish a very close second, while blockbuster hit “The Wedding”, which just beat “Titanic” to be the most-watched film ever in Croatia, is about an insane family wedding between a Croatian girl and a Serbian boy. It’s a crowdpleaser and would be a refreshing non-traditional choice. Rounding out the Top 5- social services documentary “The Thing To Be Done” (good reviews but it was made in Slovenia) and family drama “Small Things”.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turned to Gold” The Czech Republic made things easy this year by announcing in July that ten films had registered to join the race and that five had been shortlisted – drag queen dramedy “Chica Checa”, documentary “If Pigeons Turned to Gold”, ice hockey drama “Invincibles”, crime comedy “Little Thief” and elder-comedy “Five Plums”. (For those interested, the five films that weren’t shortlisted were drama “Dancing with the Bear”, comedy “Dream Team”, war biopic “Lone Wolf”, and documentaries “Don’t Worry, Breathe, Work Your Magic “ and “Public Space of František Skála”). First of all, the Czechs should have capped the shortlist at three; “Invincibles”, about the country’s para-ice-hockey team couldn’t even manage a Best Film nomination at last year’s Czech Lions, and “Little Thief” has good reviews but is still a commercial comedy aimed at local audiences. And then there were three….”If Pigeons Turned to Gold” is an experimental documentary shot on an iPhone by a filmmaker documenting drug addiction within her family. It has by far the best reviews of the three and won Best Documentary at Berlinale 2026. But the Czechs picked an experimental documentary last year….will they do it two years in a row? “Five Plums” (aka “What a Way to Go”) is a comedy about five aging friends on a trip to Greece and is directed by Jan Sverak who won an Oscar for “Kolya”…but that was thirty years ago and the film looks more like a Saturday night "comfort watch" than an Oscar winner. “Chica Checa” (aka “Czech Girl”), about a gay Czech who returns home to visit his dying grandmother, was the Czech representative in the Crystal Globe competition at Karlovy Vary and the Czechs picked a queer film last year so they're comfortable with the subject matter. I prefer when countries send comedies, but I think the Berlin award will push “If Pigeons” over the finish line. If they don’t like the shaky iPhone (I'm pretty sure I won't....), then “Chica” should get this.

ESTONIA- “Morten” Estonia has had a quiet film year. Their most likely submission is “Morten”, a coming-of-age drama about an introverted 15-year old that premiered at Karlovy Vary and will be released in Estonia in September. However, Estonia has made surprising choices the past two years (“Rolling Papers” over “Frank”, and “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” over “Lioness”) so perhaps they’ll surprise with eclectic documentary “Edge of the Night”, a love letter to the secret (seedy?) side of Tallinn, the prettiest of the three Baltic capitals.

GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” At first glance, Georgia seems to have a very easy decision this year. “Dry Leaf”, a 3-hour drama about the search for a missing woman, is both the highest-profile and best-reviewed Georgian film of the year, it has festival play and awards (Locarno 2025) and many probably feel that director Aleksandre Koberidze is “owed” after his brilliant “What Do We See When We Look At the Sky?” was snubbed in a competitive year. Two previously submitted directors are also in contention- Ana Urushadze’s “Supporting Role”, about an aging actor, won two awards in Rotterdam and also has very, very good reviews; and George Ovashvili’s “The Moon is a Father of Mine”, which is a coming-of-age drama set during the tumultuous first year of Georgian independence. Ovashvili was shortlisted for the (dull) “Corn Island”, but the other two films have much better reviews. But wait! This just in! Levan Koguashvili (one of my favorite directors) has a new tragicomedy (“Guria”) scheduled to premiere in Venice and it sounds pretty great…. Koguashvili (who I've had the pleasure of  meeting at a screening of "Blind Dates") was the director who unexpectedly knocked Koberidze off his pedestal with late release “Brighton 4^th” (also a very good film) in 2021. Could history repeat itself? Dark horse: the upcoming “Tear Gas”, about a Georgian family involved in mass protests, which was just announced for a Locarno sidebar.

HUNGARY- “Feels Like Home” Hungary should send “Feels Like Home”, as it is probably the best film I have seen this year….The less you know about it the better, but it’s a solid, disturbing and satisfying thriller.  Standing in its way are three more visible, “traditional” festival films, namely Laszlo Nemes’ French-language biopic “Moulin”, multilingual (English, German and Cantonese) “Silent Friend” (Venice 2025), and soon-to-premiere “Ground Floor” (Venice 2026), which is actually in Hungarian. “Silent Friend” has amazing reviews but I’ve heard varying things about whether it has too much English to qualify. Set around the same tree in Germany in 1908, 1972 and 2020, the film is directed by Ildikó Enyedi (“On Body and Soul”) and co-stars Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux. Black comedy “Ground Floor”, about an apartment building infected with black mold, is set to open on October 1^st (the day after the deadline) but Hungary often arranges qualifying releases for the Oscars and tends to prefer late releases. Dark horses: “Iron and Earth”, an upcoming drama set in 1947, 1985 and 2025, and “Stars of Little Importance”, an indie drama set at Christmastime. Acclaimed directors Kornél Mundruczó and Lilli Horvath have new films but they are in English. I’m optimistically predicting that the new Orban-less Hungary will do the right thing and pick “Feels Like Home”, although “Silent Friend” will probably get this if the committee decides that more than 50% of the film is foreign-language. “Ground Floor” is very much in with a chance if Venice reviews are positive. I think Hungary will “wait and see” the reaction from Venice before announcing.

KOSOVO- “Dua” Kosovo submitted films to the Oscars ever year from 2014-2022 - getting shortlisted once - before abruptly quitting the competition, sparking annual protests from among the country’s tiny filmmaking community in 2023, 2024 and 2025. This year, they are in the unusual position of benefiting from AMPAS’ new rule giving an automatic slot to the Sundance Grand Jury Prize- Kosovo’s “Shame and Money” (director Visar Morina directed "Exile", my favorite Kosovar submission, in 2020). So, Kosovo will be represented…possibly by two films! Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist for “Hive” (also a Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner!) and her new film “Dua” (Cannes), a coming-of-ager about a girl witnessing the collapse of rump Yugoslavia and the birth of an independent Kosovo, is bound to be selected if the Kosovar selection committee bothers to send a film for the first time in four years.

LATVIA- “Red Code Blue” Latvia will be difficult to predict. Previously submitted directors Viestur Kairish (the only Latvian director ever selected more than once) and Dzintars Dreibergs (director of the highest-grossing Latvian language film of all time) are competing against the winner of this year’s Latvian Film Awards and possibly also a Russian-language Latvian co-production directed by two-time Russian Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. “Minotaur”, which won the Cannes Grand Prize, is absolutely not a majority Latvian film...but it could be hoping for a “Sacred Fig”/”It Was Just An Accident” political exile slot. Latvia has recently become a hub for exiled Russian-language directors....Sergei Loznitsa’s ”Two Prosecutors” was shot here too….But because "Minotaur" seems like a long shot, let’s look at the three “real” Latvian frontrunners- “Escape Net”, “Red Code Blue” and “Ulya”. Strangely enough, “Escape Net” (Dreibergs) and “Ulya” (Kairish) are both dramas about Soviet-era women’s basketball! That’s quite a niche genre. “Ulya” was in Cannes Un Certain Regard but reviews are weaker than “Escape Net” and there is some controversy over the fact that a man was cast in the title role of ‘giant’ female basketball player Ulya…..that’s not likely to please hyper-sensitive, PC U.S. voters.  So, it’s probably going to be “Escape Net”, about a Stalin-era Soviet girl trying to get permission to travel abroad by playing for the national basketball team, versus “Red Code Blue”, a gritty crime drama set in the turbulent early days of Latvian independence in the 90s. “Red Code Blue” beat out “Escape” in most major categories at the Latvian Film Awards (“Escape” won the Audience Award) and the Latvian Academy is one of those that tends to give a chance to new and younger directors….So, I think “Red Code Blue” will get this, with “Escape” second, wild card “Minotaur” third, “Ulya” fourth and the female-helmed dramedy “Flesh, Blood, Even a Heart” rounding out the Top 5.

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” Winning an award at Sundance is a bit different than winning an award at artsy Berlin or Locarno – it shows a film can connect with an American audience. So, the fact that Lithuania won Best Director at Sundance for “How to Divorce During the War” means it will probably be going to the Oscars. "Divorce" is a well-reviewed drama about a couple who make plans to divorce on February 23, 2022…unknowingly on the day before Russia invades Ukraine, which directly affects their future plans. Writer-director Andrius Blazevicius probably just missed representing Lithuania a few years back for “Runner” so I think he’ll be selected easily this year.  Also in the running: odd couple Taiwan co-production “China Sea” and smuggling drama “Borderline” both screened at Tallinn Black Nights, while slow family drama “Back to the Family” premiered in Rotterdam; all three are made by previously submitted directors; “Spring” (Vesna), made in Russian and Ukrainian, is a tragic drama about a priest helping to return Ukrainian fallen soldiers to their families – it premiered in a Cannes Special Screening; and since Lithuania often sends documentaries, there’s also nature doc (about fungus!) “Holy Destructors” which won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and has played at a number of festivals internationally. “The Visitor”, which swept the country’s Film Awards this year, appears to have been eligible last year. I’m confident for “Divorce” but “Holy Destructors” is the most promising runner-up, with “China Sea” and “Spring” unlikely but possible.

MACEDONIA- “17” Macedonia has a wide-open race with three very serious options- “Good People” (Sarajevo ’26), a documentary by Oscar nominee Milcho Manchevski about the 2025 Kocani nightclub fire that killed 63 partygoers; “Skateboarding is Not for Girls” (Tribeca), a coming-of-age drama about modern-day teenagers faced with an abusive tradition of so-called ‘bridal sale’; and “17” (Berlinale Perspectives), about teenaged girls faced with sexual violence. This one is tough and all three films would make excellent submissions. Manchevski has been picked four times before, but they notably did not send his last film (“Kaymak”). For now, I’ll say “17”, because it’s the most high-profile and most visible on the film festival circuit…but this could easily be any of them.

MOLDOVA- “The Wall” Moldova sent films in 2023 and again in 2024 when four local films answered an open call for submissions. Film production is up, so I’m not sure why they quit …but I think they’ll return this year since they have several good choices, notably “The Wall”, a dark comedy about feuding neighbors, and “Transit Times”, a mother-daughter drama set in the turbulent post-independence 1990s. Documentary “Electing Mrs. Santa” is also in with a shot. I think they’ll opt for “The Wall” since director Ion Bors directed the brilliant “Carbon”, which was probably the closest Moldova ever came to the Oscar shortlist. But "Transit Times" was produced by Romanian director Cristian Mungiu, so I wouldn't count that out. 

MONTENEGRO- “Wondrous is the Silence of My Master” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 620,000) is one of the smallest Oscar countries but they’ve only missed one year since their Oscar debut in 2013. They had a good year this year with three majority productions that I’m aware of – “Black Trumpet” (Pula), about a son returning home to fight for an inheritance, “Otter” (Sarajevo), a quirky coming-of-age drama, and “Wondrous is the Silence of my Master” (Rotterdam/Sarajevo), a period drama set amidst the 19^th century wars with the Ottoman Turks. I think the size and scope (and costumes and production design) of “Wondrous”, which got a domestic release in November 2024, will be selected, although the cultural specificity of “Black Trumpet” looks more interesting to me. “Otter”, which could be hurt by the fact that it has a Bosnian director, will likely finish third. 

POLAND- “Fatherland” Most people are predicting this will be an easy win for International Oscar winner and Best Director nominee Pawel Pawlikowski (“Ida, “Cold War”)….and it's absolutely true that he probably will get it. These days, choosing a “visible” film is more important than choosing the best one. The German-language “Fatherland” is Pawlikowski's first feature in eight years, and it’s a well-reviewed Cold War drama that premiered in Cannes, so it checks all the right boxes. But I don’t think it’s a shoo-in….and I believe “Wild Wild East” (soon to premiere in Toronto), a WWII thriller set in Nazi-occupied Poland, is equally likely. You can count on Poland announcing late, as they will be hoping “East” wins the Toronto Platforms award so that they can have two films eligible this year. Dramedy “Altar Boys” (Winner, Best Polish Film, Gdynia 2025), documentary “Closure” (Best Director, Sundance), about a man looking for his missing son, and period relationship drama “Through the Wall”, will be hoping for a miracle but likely won’t be able to defeat the two frontrunners.

ROMANIA- “You Don’t Belong Here” In a normal year, Romania would be getting out the stopwatch to count English words in order to determine whether Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” is eligible. I haven’t seen it but I’ve seen people online swear it’s mostly in English, others promise it’s mostly in foreign languages (Romanian and Norwegian), while still others say it’s right on the line. But since "Fjord" (starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) won the Cannes Palme d’Or, it automatically qualifies (if and only if it’s not in English) so Romania can now relax and choose another film. Their four main options are “Diary of a Chambermaid” (Cannes), “On Our Own” (Berlin) and “You Don’t Belong Here” (Locarno), all by established directors who have been sent to the Oscars before, plus dark horse low-budget comedy-drama “Three Days in September” (Rotterdam), which was allegedly shot in a single take. “Diary of a Chambermaid” is the latest from prolific director Radu Jude, who has represented Romanian four times in the past eleven years. I love Jude but Oscar does not….although “Chambermaid”, co-starring Melanie Thierry, is more serious than his earlier submissions (though still reportedly very theatrical). I’m going to predict that this year Romania will be of those countries that sends a new and largely untested film. My prediction is “You Don’t Belong Here”, about an esteemed and respected doctor who learns that his rebellious son has been accused of murder. It's due to premiere in Locarno this month. I have “Chambermaid” in a close second place, followed by “Three Days in September”, “On Our Own” and “Transit Times”, a Moldovan co-production produced by Cristian Mungiu (see MOLDOVA).

RUSSIA- “Angels of War” I have no doubts that Russia will boycott the Oscars again this year. In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia announced that it had disbanded its Oscar selection committee and that it wouldn’t participate in the Oscars because of Western disrespect towards Russia (?). But Russia does have a great filmmaking tradition. Before they quit, they managed to make the shortlist five times out of eight between 2014-2021, netting Oscar nods for Andrey Zyvagintsev’s “Leviathan” and “Loveless”. Zyvagintsev has a new movie this year – “Minotaur” – which he made in Latvia, in the Russian language, with French and German production support. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (2^nd Place), meaning it almost got an automatic slot at the Oscars (the English-language “Fjord” got it instead). If Russia did return this year (and they won’t), I think they would send “Angels of War”, a patriotic war movie about the Soviet evacuation of children by heroic iceboat soldiers during World War II. It opened the Moscow Film Festival and looks fairly big-budget. “Seven Versts Before Dawn”, another WWII drama, this time about a village leading Nazi German soldiers into an ambush/trap, also looks sufficiently patriotic. But Russia’s best-reviewed films this year are apolitical ones like comedy-drama “Scenes of Friendly Times”, sentimental comedy “Yura was Here”, and elderly couple drama “Two People in One Life and a Dog”….They opted for one of those in 2021 and I wish we could see one of those competing for Russia this year.

SERBIA- “Yugo Florida” Serbia has the most confused race in Eastern Europe, with many good films to choose from and no guarantee that they’ll select any of them. From 2019-2024, Serbia mostly sent dusty, patriotic, historical dramas meant for domestic audiences, with few international awards or festival play. Last year, there were reports in the Serbian press than most filmmakers didn’t even bother with the Oscars because of the belief that the system was rigged or corrupt. Last year saw only two candidates submitted….As a result, an arthouse film was actually sent. Serbia has three absolutely fantastic candidates this year- “Three Weeks After’ (Karlovy Vary), about bullying and suicide (and a ghost!) connected with a high-school trip, documentary “To Hold a Mountain” (Documentary Grand Jury Prize, Sundance), about a family of shepherds facing off against NATO training exercises in their community, and “Our Father” (Toronto) a ‘monastery crime thriller’ that has already pissed some conservatives off. They also have the upcoming “Until the Day Ends”, about a romance that blooms between protesters on opposite sides of a political conflict, which is due to premiere in Venice. None of these four frontrunners seem to have a release date yet except “Three Weeks After” which is scheduled for November, after the deadline. This has been a great film year for Serbia….they have three other critically acclaimed films at festivals - road movie “How Come It’s All Green Here?”, family docudrama “Wind Talk to Me” and slacker tearjerker “Yugo Florida”. If there’s any justice, Serbia will select one of these incredibly deserving films instead of something like “The General”, a patriotic WWII drama with middling reviews and no international exposure. Ultimately, it will depend completely on which directors submit their films to the Serbian selection committee, and which can prove a cinematic release. I’m very confused but will guess “Yugo Florida”, which I haven’t seen yet but which reviewers say is incredibly emotionally moving.

SLOVAKIA- “For Love” Slovakia has a wide-open race this year. The Slovak Academy often plays favorites (not unusual in countries with smaller film industries...). Since 2014, all but three submitted directors have been repeat picks, including two films each by Peter Bebjak, Ivan Ostrochovský and Marko Škop. Škop is one of my favorite directors from the region and the underrated “Eva Nova” deserved an Oscar in 2017. Škop and Ostrochovsky have new films this year, namely “For Love” (due to be released in September), about a young woman who meets a terminally ill man and his wife, and “Only Beautiful Things to Look At”, a based-on-a-true-story drama starring Anna Geislerová as a nurse in 1980s Czechoslovakia confronted with the eugenic sterilization of Roma women. These are the clear frontrunners, though they could just as easily choose “Flood”, a rural drama about a woman who wants to be a pilot against the wishes of her conservative father, rural documentary “Better to Go Mad in the Wild” (which won Best Documentary at both the Czech and Slovak Film Awards) or slacker romance “Lover, Not a Fighter”.  “Only Beautiful Things” is considered the favorite but I’ll predict an upset for “For Love”…and I can’t wait to see the new Škop film! UPDATE: I was wrong…On July 30, Slovakia became to first country to announce, and they picked “Flood”, which is not surprising.

SLOVENIA- “Whites Wash at Ninety” At the moment, Slovenia seems likely to send “Whites Wash at Ninety”, a drama set in the Communist Yugoslavian 80s, which is both their most popular (it was the #1 film, local or international, in 2025) and critically acclaimed choice. Marko Naberšnik is Slovenia’s most successful director but he works mostly in television these days and they’ve only sent one of his films to the Oscars thus far. However, it does face competition from the oddly-titled “Ida Who Sang So Badly Even the Dead Rose Up and Joined Her Song”, a quiet but well-reviewed comedy-drama about a tone-deaf girl who joins a choir, and the upcoming “Everything That’s Wrong with You” (Sarajevo ’26), about a Slovenian nurse who goes to Germany to meet a friend she met on the Internet…though I suspect that one will be eligible next year. While I’m pretty sure it will be one of these three, they also have queer drama “Fantasy” (Locarno 2025) and criminal rehabilitation documentary “When I Get Out” (Sarajevo 2026). According to the Slovenian Film Guide, no less than five previously submitted directors have films that will be released soon- “Hotel Alcohol”, about a group of drug and psychiatric patients on a road trip, looks the most promising, but there’s also “One Month”, “Tartufferies”, “Twenty Meters” and “Whispered Mercy”. Could one of them premiere in time to shake up the Slovenian race?

UKRAINE- “Animals in War” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of films coming out of Ukraine are documentaries about the war, focusing on the country’s fierce resistance to Russian military aggression. Of these, “Traces” (Berlin Panorama) seems to stand out. Co-directed by a female ex-Ukrainian soldier and self-identified assault victim, it’s about the victims of Russian sexual crimes during the conflict. But this week’s national film awards (the Golden Dzygas) resulted in an unexpected sweep for sci-fi comedy-drama “U are the Universe”, about a lonely Ukrainian 'space trucker' who believes he is the last human alive after the Earth explodes…but who then receives an unexpected message from a French woman living on a remote space station. Could this be picked instead? "Universe" did beat out last year’s submission “2000 Meters to Andriivka” for Best Picture and Director at the Dzygas. Also very possible is “Animals in War”, a series of short films about the Ukraine conflict seen through the eyes of animals – including one co-starring two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn (This worked well for Poland’s “EO” with Isabelle Huppert)! These three films are the frontrunners but Ukraine also has Donbass elderly frenemy drama “Grey Bees” (Rotterdam 2024 but released in Ukraine in late 2025), Sergey Loznitsa’s Stalinist purge drama “Two Prosecutors” (Loznitsa has represented Ukraine before but it’s not a majority Ukrainian film), plus documentaries “The Last Prometheus of Donbas” (Thessalonik), “Cuba & Alaska” (Tallinn), “Simple Soldier” (Toronto), and “Songs of Slow Burning Earth”. I’m predicting Sean Penn gets “Animals” to the finals, followed by “Traces” and the Ukrainian Film winner “U are the Universe” a close third. “Grey Bees” and “The Last Prometheus” round out the Top 5. 

FINAL PREDICTION- Brazil wins two years in a row for "Secret Agent"

 This is one of the most exciting races in years for the International Feature category. It's common knowledge that if an International Film gets a Best Picture nomination, then it's automatically going to win Best International Film. This has happened six of the past seven years even when "Drive My Car" (terrible!) and "Zone of Interest" (boring!) managed to get it. 

But this year, "Sentimental Value" and "Secret Agent" are both nominated for Best Picture and Wagner Moura and Stellan Skarsgård are both serious contenders in the Acting categories...so people will definitely see both films. I've also heard that AMPAS is making an extra effort to guilt voters into only voting if they've seen all five nominees (this has long been the rule...but now you can't vote of you haven't seen a film, unless you click a box and actively lie)....so could that help the two politically important (and far superior) films from Iran France and Tunisia? God, I hope so...but probably not. 

"Sentimental Value" is considered to be the favorite. For me, this was among the most forgettable films of the year. I barely remembered a thing about it the day after I saw it. Was it well-acted? Yes. I'm fine with Reinsve and Skarsgård being nominated. But "Worst Person in the World" was a million times better, and I don't understand how "Sentimental" is any different from any other talky Nordic drama. 

I didn't love "Secret Agent" either....It's messy, with subplots that never get resolved, and could use about 30 minutes of editing from its first half.... It also had more buzz around the time AMPAS voters were casting their ballots....so I think it will be the surprise winner. Brazil will be the first back-to-back winner since Denmark in the 1980s. 

Dark horse: Could the Iran conflict lead to a surprise victory for "It Was Just An Accident"? That's the film I would vote for, and a victory speech from Jafar Panahi (also nominated in Best Original Screenplay) at this moment in history would be awesome. 

BRAZIL- "Secret Agent" (50%)

NORWAY- "Sentimental Value" (44%)

FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident" (5%)

SPAIN- "Sirat" (1%)

TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (The only one not to be nominated anywhere else....Just happy to be nominated)

SHORT FILMS

I saw all 41/45 shortlisted films in the three Short Film categories (I missed four documentaries). 

Live-Action

Should win: Butcher's Stain (Israel)

Will win: 

1. Friend of Dorothy (UK.....my second-favorite)     

2. The Singers (USA)

3. Two People Exchanging Saliva (France)

4. Butcher's Stain (Israel)

5. Jane Austen's Period Drama  (USA)

Should have been nominated: "Pearl Comb" and "Pantyhose" instead of "Saliva"

Documentary

Should win: Armed Only With a Camera (USA)

Will win:

1. All the Empty Rooms (USA....I have no doubts about this and it is very good)

2. Armed Only With a Camera (USA)

3. The Devil is Busy (USA)

4. Children No More (Israel, Very, very good)

5. Perfectly a Strangeness (Canada....just following donkeys around with a camera)

Should Have Been Nominated: "Rovina's Choice" or "Bad Hostage" instead of "Strangeness"

Animated

Should win: Hmmm.....I'd vote for "Forevergreen" but "Girl Who Cried Pearls" has the most impressive animation.

Will win:

This is a tough call....Any of the Top Four could win

1. Butterfly/Papillon (France)

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Canada)

3. Forevergreen (USA)

4. The Retirement Plan (USA....What a great script.....but the animation is very simple)

5. Three Sisters (???)

Should Have Been Nominated: "Playing God" instead of "The Retirement Plan"

Short Films

 A quick note about the short films before today’s announcement…There are fifteen shorts nominated in each of the three short film categories and I was fortunate to see 33 of the 45 films- 13 animated films, 9 documentaries and 10 live-action. 

The best were “The Butcher’s Stain” (Israel), “Playing God” (Italy) and “Armed with a Camera” (USA) though only the last one is guaranteed to be nominated for an Oscar. 

Here are my predictions for the films I saw- 

Animated- 

1. Snow Bear- Somehow the official frontrunner…Cute but forgettable. B+

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls- Brilliantly animated stop-motion fable by a previous nominee. A-

3. Éiru- Forgettable Celtic myth…Also said to be a frontrunner for the win. B

4. Playing God- Terrifyingly beautiful. Best of the lot. A

5: Papillon- Original animation…Important but dull story of a Jewish Algerian swimmer facing discrimination and the Nazis. B+

6. Forevergreen- The best of the “cute” children’s shorts. A

7. Retirement Plan- An A for the script, a C for the rather plain and simple animation. B+

8. Hurikán- Funny, “Run Lola Run”-esque urban adventure with a boarman looking for beer in a Czech town. B+

9. Cardboard- Cute kiddie comedy about a family of pigs. B+

10. Autokar- Dull, dreamy “Alice in Wonderland” set on a Polish bus. B

11. The Shyness of Trees- French fantasy about a woman and her dying (Wiccan?) mom. B

12. I Died in Irpin- I support Ukraine but did not enjoy this primitive short. C-

13. Les bottes de la nuit- Kiddie film about a haunted forest. B-

I didn’t see Quinta’s Ghost, which I hear is a dark horse, or Three Sisters, which I’ve heard will NOT be nominated. 

Documentaries 

1. All the Empty Rooms, A. So sad…and will probably win. A documentary filmmaker films the rooms of school shooting victims. 

2. Armed Only with a Camera, A+ Deserves to win. Fitting tribute to a great journalist. 

3. Rovina’s Choice, A. Film about the effects of USAID cuts on individual family at a refugee camp in Kenya. Politically important. 

4. Cashing Out, A-. Fascinating look at a controversial company that helped monetize the life insurance of AIDS patients in the 80s. 

5. Bad Hostage, A-. Well-made and informative look at so-called “Stockholm Syndrome” telling three complete stories of female hostages. 

6. Last Days on Lake Trinity, A-. Devastatingly sad and very well-done cinema verite. 

7. All the Walls Came Down, B. Important topic, middling filmmaking. 

8. Perfectly a Strangeness, Is following a bunch of cute donkeys around with a camera, a reason to give the director an Oscar? Cute but no. C

9. We Were the Scenery, Boring film that looks like someone filming their Vietnamese grandparents telling a story.  C-

I didn’t see “The Devil is Busy” which will surely take one of the five nomination spots, and  “Heartbeat” which will probably come in last place. I also failed to see  “Chasing Time”, “Classroom Four”, “Children No More” and “On Healing Land”. 

Live-Action

1. Friend of Dorothy, A-. Give Miriam Margolyes an Oscar! cute funny very well-made short film from UK

2. Beyond Silence, B+. Sexual assault drama from the Netherlands

3. Boy with the White Skin, B+. Film about an albino boy in Senegal. This is shot like a horror film and is a very good short….even though it seems like they forgot to film a final scene.

4. Ado, B.School shooting drama. A bit over-emotional and maudlin. Oscar should love it

5. Butcher’s Stain, A. Best film on the list. This is an Israeli film, shot like a thriller, about discrimination against Arabs in Israeli society.

6. Extremism, B+. Film about Putin’s repression in Russia told from the perspective of two young lesbians. 

7. Pantyhose, A-. Formulaic but fun and relatable relationship comedy from Finland. 

8. Jane Austen’s Period Drama, A-. Super fun comedy, but probably too silly for the Oscars. 

9. Amarela, B- Average short about the life of a Brazilian Japanese girl

10. Butterfly on a Wheel, D. How can a film that looks and sound so beautiful be so bad? 

I missed seeing The Singers, Pearl Comb, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Rock Paper Scissors and Dads Not Home.

OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, the rules make things so predictable now that I correctly predicted 12/15 finalists this year....and the three films that I missed (Germany, Palestine and Switzerland) were among my four alternates. I'm still a bit surprised that Denmark and the UK failed to make the shortlist (It's only the fourth time Denmark has missed since 2010)....The last film I predicted - Colombia's "Un poeta" - was probably a bit of wishful thinking. 

Moving on to next week's Oscar nominations....

This year is an exciting race because we literally have no idea which film will win. The well-made but dull “Sentimental Value” has been the front-runner all year and is expected to be nominated in a number of mainstream categories (although the SAG snub of its entire cast should make them worry). “It Was Just An Accident”, the Iranian film representing France, has a Cannes Palme d’Or, the critics vote, and the best backstory of the bunch. Dissident filmmaker Jafar Panahi, now travelling in the United States, wrote the script based on a previous stint in an Iranian prison and now faces another jail sentence and travel ban if and when he returns to increasingly unstable Iran….which he has sworn to do. But, as Brazil did last year, “The Secret Agent” has been rising fast and is peaking  at the right time….Though everyone tells me the film is “difficult” and very, very long, people genuinely seem to love it…and its Golden Globe win last night makes it a serious threat.

The other two Oscar nominees probably don’t have a chance to win….but there’s an exciting race to see which two get the invitations to Hollywood. Almost everyone is predicting that this will be an exciting toss-up between Korea (the popular, commercial option), Spain (the darling of critics and the guilds) and Tunisia (the sentimental and political choice). Kaouther Ben Hania is a two-time Oscar nominee and she and Park Chan-wook are AMPAS members.

Is there room for a surprise in such a front-loaded race? It’s unlikely but possible. Reportedly, last year’s 4-time Oscar winner Sean Baker (“Anora”) and Netflix are lobbying  hard for the (rather basic) “Left-Handed Girl”…which Baker co-wrote. With Korea, Spain and Tunisia splitting the vote, Taiwan could be a potential spoiler.

What about the rest? 

It’s always an advantage when you are a frontrunner and/or shortlisted in other categories, which will help Japan’s “Kokuho” (Make-Up and and Costume Design) and Germany’s “Sound of Falling” (Cinematography)…though they don’t seem “loved” enough outside their home countries. And while buzz has been quieter, “Belen” (Amazon) and “Homebound” (Netflix + Martin Scorsese) have powerful allies in their corner too.

The other four - Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Switzerland are probably out of luck- even if some of them are much better films than the frontrunners. Jordan’s “All That’s Left of You” – which has an American director and is arguably the best-reviewed film on the list - might have a chance if it wasn’t splitting the vote with two other films focused on Palestine.

Incidentally, I’ve seen eight of the fifteen films on the list….I’d rank them in the following order…..None were bad.

1. India- "Homebound" 9/10

2. Switzerland, "Late Shift" 9/10

3. France, "It Was Just An Accident" 8/10

4. Korea, "No Other Choice", 8/10

5. Spain, "Sirat", 7.5/10

6. Taiwan, "Left-Handed Girl", 7.5/10

7. Argentina, "Belen", 7/10

8. Norway, "Sentimental Value", 5.5/10

And here’s my predicted ranking:

VIRTUALLY LOCKED

1. NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” (Letterboxd: 42, Rotten Tomatoes: 97, IMDB: 79)

2. BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” (LB: 39, RT: 99, IMDB: 79)

3. IRAN FRANCE- “It Was Just An Accident” (LB: 40, RT: 97, IMDB: 75)

These three are safe. They’ve swept the precursors, have almost no detractors and – most importantly – are all solidly in the race for Best Picture.

BLOODBATH FOR A NOMINATION

4. SPAIN- “Sirat” (LB: 36, RT: 93, IMDB: 70)

5. TUNISIA- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (LB: 43, RT: 96, IMDB: 86)

6. KOREA- “No Other Choice” (LB: 42, RT: 98, IMDB: 76)

Statistically, it’s “Sirat” that should get knocked out. It’s a divisive film and reviews aren’t as good as the other two. But it made four Oscar shortlists for the guilds (Casting, Score, Cinematography and Sound) showing it has a broad base of support. For now, I think “No Other Choice” will be left out because it’s (a lot) less serious. But I love Park so I hope I’m wrong. This could really go any way. 

VERY DARK HORSES

7. TAIWAN- “Left-Handed Girl”

8. JAPAN- “Kokuho”

9. INDIA- “Homebound”

As mentioned, these three Asian films have powerful backers….But Taiwan is probably the only one with a chance. The three-hour “Kokuho” is impressive but may have an hour too much kabuki…..

HOPING FOR A MIRACLE

10. JORDAN- “All That’s Left of You"

11. GERMANY- “Sound of Falling”

12. IRAQ- “The President’s Cake”

I’m not sure why Germany is here. Nobody seems to like it. 

Everyone who sees Jordan says it’s one of the best films of the year. Why hasn’t it gotten nominated anywhere? 

Iraq, the only country to be shortlisted for the first time, had a lot of buzz but it disappeared before Oscar season….Sony Pictures Classics didn’t fight for it 

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

13. ARGENTINA- “Belen”

14. SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift”

15. PALESTINE- “Palestine 36”

“Belen” is a nice little film about an important topic (abortion) but I felt that someone had taken the script of “Argentina 1985” and literally rewritten the structure to be about abortion. 

“Palestine 36”, the least visible of the three films about Palestine won’t be able to compete with Jordan and Tunisia….but making the list is a major accomplishment for Jacir. 

Last is Switzerland, the only country that made the shortlist with no major stars, backers, distributors or supporters in their corner. It was one of the best of the 92 submitted films this year. How wonderful it made the shortlist and how sad it really has no chance to advance further….

FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Sadly, the announcement isn't as exciting as it used to be....With the new rules, it's the films that get seen that make the shortlist. Even if every person assigned to, say, watch the film from Greenland ranks it #1, I don't think it would have enough votes to make the shortlist when four times as many people are watching films that have more backers. (witness "Bardo"). 

Films that have found celebrity backers to host screenings and back their cause have an advantage....Tom Cruise is supporting Japan, Jaime Foxx is supporting Egypt, and a whole bunch of 'Free Palestine' celebrities have lined up behind Tunisia. Sean Baker ("Anora") wrote the screenplay to "Left-Handed Girl", Martin Scorsese produced "Homebound" and Gael Garcia Bernal stars in "Magellan" (though that still probably won't make it!" So, the seven frontrunners that have mostly rocked the precursors (Brazil, France, Norway, Spain, Taiwan, Tunisia) and films that have studio or celebrity backing are likely to make it. The only shortlist shocker in the last few years was Armenia's "Amerikatsi"....but even that made sense when you realize the American director was based in Hollywood and appears to have been working his connections. 

Here goes....I've seen almost half the contenders but only seven (highlighted in yellow) that actually have a chance at the next round: 

PREDICTED SHORTLIST:

1. NORWAY- "Sentimental Value"

2. FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident"

3. BRAZIL- "Secret Agent"

4. KOREA- "No Other Choice"

5. SPAIN- "Sirat"

6. TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab"

7. TAIWAN- "Left-Handed Girl"

8. DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Againt Putin"

9. UNITED KINGDOM- "My Father's Shadow" 

10. INDIA- "Homebound"

11. ARGENTINA- "Belen"

12. IRAQ- "The President's Cake" (seems to have lost momentum but has Sony Picture Classics)

13. JAPAN- "Kokuho"

14. COLOMBIA- "Un poeta"

15. JORDAN- "All That's Left of You"

SUPER STRONG ALTERNATES:

16. UKRAINE- "2000 Metres to Andriivka" (surprise snub)

17. PALESTINE- "Palestine 36"

18. SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift"

19. GERMANY- "Sound of Falling" (surprise snub; everyone says it's incredibly boring)

20. EGYPT- "Happy Birthday"

21. SLOVENIA- "Little Trouble Girls"

22. MOROCCO- "Calle Malaga"

23. LEBANON- "Sad and Beautiful World"

DARK HORSES

24. MACEDONIA- "The Tale of Silyan"

25. PHILIPPINES- "Magellan"

26. AUSTRIA- "Peacock"

27. ITALY- "Familia"

28. SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic

29. ISRAEL- "The Sea"

30. ICELAND - "The Love that Remains"

2026 International Oscar Submissions- The Films from Africa and the Middle East (15 films)

 So, I'll keep this post relatively short. 

I was able to see 22/39 European submissions (56%), 12/22 from Asia (55%) and 8/16 from the Americas (50%) so I feel pretty good about my predictions. 

But this year it was almost impossible to get screeners for the films from Africa and the Middle East and I only saw "Disco Afrika", the cute debut entry from MADAGASCAR. So, by default, I guess that's my "favorite" from the region. 

The most interesting thing about this group is that four of the fifteen films are about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict including frontrunner "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (representing Tunisia), "All That's Left of You" (a Palestinian film representing Jordan), "Palestine 36" (representing Palestine itself) and "The Sea", an Arabic-language film representing Israel. The fact that Israel itself has selected a film on this theme shows how important it is for artists and filmmakers in the region. Will the Palestine-themed films canceled themselves out? Will they somehow dominate the shortlist? Golden Globe nominee "Hind Rajab" by two-time Oscar nominee Kaouther Ben Hania is expected to make the shortlist later today with historical dramas "Palestine 36" and "All That's Left of You" on the bubble. "The Sea", which is also supposed to be excellent, has less people behind it and hasn't been as widely seen so it's probably out. A poll on Awardsdaily had Tunisia in 4th place, Palestine in 15th and Jordan tied (with Colombia) for 16th. 

Another interesting issue from the region? The lack of films from Africa. I was expecting this to be a record year for African films as 15 countries publicly announced the formation of national committees and a 16th country (Burkina Faso) had a very strong contender. I think the record is 11 and it seemed certain that that would be broken. But, one by one, African countries declined to enter. Rwanda and Zimbabwe said that they would debut this year but sent nothing. Namibia and Sudan said the only films submitted didn't meet AMPAS rules. African powerhouses Kenya and Nigeria said they received submisisons but voted to send nothing (why??). Algeria made a rather cruel statement- "it is apparent that the two submitted films did not have the potential to reasonably be 'shortlisted' by AMPAS and despite their good intentions, such participation would risk harming the image of Algerian cinema on the world stage." And Cameroon, which had sent five films in a row, also failed to enter. After Senegal was disqualified (why?), only six African films remain. 

MY REVIEWS:

"Disco Afrika" is the first-ever entry from MADAGASCAR, a beautiful country famous for its wildlife. But "Disco Afrika" is about the country's history and people, with nary a lemur or aye-aye in sight. This is a solid coming-of-age drama with beautiful local music but I don't see it making an impact in the voting. It's a small film that is likely to get lost among higher-profile entries. I confess I don't remember too many of the details, except that the film starts strong and gets a bit confusing in its finale. 

UNDISPUTED FRONTRUNNER- 

1. TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (Letterboxd: 4.3)

NOT SO DARK HORSES

2. IRAQ- "The President's Cake" (3.9)

3. PALESTINE- "Palestine 36" (3.8)

4. JORDAN- "All That's Left of You" (4.1)

VERY DARK HORSES

5. EGYPT- "Happy Birthday" (3.7)

6. LEBANON- "Sad and Beautiful World" (3.8)

7. MOROCCO- "Calle Malaga" (3.7)

8. ISRAEL- "The Sea" (3.6)

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

9. SOUTH AFRICA- "The Heart is a Muscle" (3.4)

10. TURKEY- "One of Those Days When Hemme Dies" (3.4)

11. IRAN- "Cause of Death Unknown (3.3)

12. SENEGAL- "Demba" (3.2)

NO CHANCE

13. MADAGASCAR- "Disco Afrika" (3.4)

14. SAUDI ARABIA- "Hijra" (3.4)

15. UGANDA- "Kimote" (3.2)

FUN FACTS:

Who's Out: Many of the countries in this region only submit intermittently. The most important absences were Algeria, Kenya and Nigeria, which all formed committees but decided not to enter. 19 other countries have sent films in the past, mostly just once or twice. I did expect Burkina Faso ("Katanga: The Dance of the Scorpions") and Chad ("Diya") to return. 

Genres:       All fifteen films are dramas, although many have thriller elements (Iran, South Africa, Tunisia, Turkey). 

I’ve Already Seen: Just Madagascar. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See Next: I like the look of "Cause of Death: Unknown" from Iran but can't find English subtitles for it. 

Number I Predicted Correctly:  7/15 - Iraq, Madagascar, Morocco, Palestine, Senegal, South Africa and Uganda - plus I predicted Tunisia would send "Hind Rajab" if it got a qualifying release....and I picked "Cause of Death Unknown" for Iran TWO YEARS AGO before it got banned, shelved and then unbanned. 

Big Four Festivals: (10/15 premiered at one of these four....Only Uganda got no Class-A Festival play)

·        Berlin-       Madagascar, Senegal, South Africa

·        Cannes-     Iraq

·        Sundance-  Jordan

·        Venice-       Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey

Women Directors-  6/15 (40%) of the films are directed by women- Shahad Ameen (Saudi Arabia), Kaouther Ben Hania (Tunisia), Cherien Dabis (Jordan), Sarah Goher (Egypt), Annemarie Jacir (Palestine) and Maryam Touzani (Morocco)

Oldest and Youngest Directors- I'm honestly not sure....but possibly Israel's Shai Carmeli-Pollak, 57, and Lebanon's Cyril Aris, 38? But I don't know. 

Languages – As usual Arabic-language films dominate. 8/15 (including Israel) are mostly in Arabic. The others are in Afrikaans, Fula, Luganda, Malagasy, Persian, Spanish (Morocco) and Turkish.  

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- It's a strong group.....I'd say eight. 

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Definitely Iraq...but Egypt is hoping too. 

Buzziest Film: "Hind Rajab"

Letterboxd Ratings (as of  December 10, 2025):      Best:  Tunisia (4.3), Worst:  Senegal and Uganda (3.2)

Dumbest Decision:  Nobody was "dumb" (countries in every region are getting smarter!) although possibly Saudi Arabia could have chosen better. 

Controversies and Changes:  Israel's right-wing government was furious that Israel's Ophir Awards gave the Best Picture prize to a film not in alignment with government priorities. Perhaps the lack of financial support is one of the reasons this very well-reviewed film hasn't had much buzz? I'm not sure.

Egypt's "Happy Birthday" wasn't on the original Egyptian shortlist that was announced on social media the day before Egypt's official announcement....but that looks like it was a late release date issue rather than something more sinister and the film has excellent reviews. 

Senegal's "Demba" was submitted following a fairly competitive process but didn't appear on the final list so surely there's some controversial story there.  

Nobody seemed to mind the fact that the Jordanian film is actually Palestinian.....Or that Sarah Goher and Cherien Dabis are dual  citizens born and raised in the USA. 

Oscar History: 

Kaouther Ben Hania is here for the fourth time and she already has two Oscar nominations under her belt for "The Man Who Sold His Skin" (International Feature) and "Four Daughters" (Documentary Feature). My favorite Ben Hania film- "Beauty and the Dogs" will probably end up being the only one without any Oscar love. 

Annemarie Jacir is representing Palestine for the fourth time following the Oscar-worthy "Wajib", as well as "Salt of this Sea" and "When I Saw You". 

Maryam Touzani is representing Morocco for the third time, after being shortlisted for "Blue Caftan" but not for "Adam". She also worked with her husband Nabil Ayouch to co-write three of his submissions. 

Here for the second time: Shahad Ameen (Saudi Arabia; "Scales") and Mamadou Dia ("Nafi's Father") though he was disqualified this year.

Most Notable Omissions:  

 

 

  

Also absent: "Carissa" (South Africa), "Dead Language" (Israel), "Katanga, Dance of the Scorpions" (FESPACO winner; Burkina Faso), "Mother, Mother" (Somalia), "The Old Bachelor" (Iran), "Une si longue lettre" (Senegal), "Who Do I Belong To?" (Tunisia) and the multi-national "To A Land Unknown". 

Most Famous Face: It's a tie between two actors working outside their home countries- Spanish legend Carmen Maura who headlines Morocco's "Calle Malaga" and Oscar nominee Jeremy Irons, who has a supporting role in "Palestine 36". Hiam Abbass, also in "Palestine 36" gets the bronze. 

Last Year’s Race: I saw 12/16 last year and the two best by far were the ones from Israel and Palestine- "Come Closer" and "From Ground Zero" (both A-). I think I'll have to give the regional award to Palestine because of the scale and the difficulty of the filmmaking. 

I also saw (in order) "Arze" (B+), "Nawi" (B+), "My Sweet Land" (B+), "Baghdad Messi" (B), "Everybody Loves Touda" (C+), "Algiers" (C), "Mai Martaba" (C), the ridiculously overrated "Dahomey" (D), and "Flight 404" (D-)

I failed to see the entries from Cameroon, Iran, South Africa (now on Amazon) and Tunisia.