ASIA-PACIFIC PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film 2027

And here are the 29 candidates from the Asia-Pacific region....Last year, a record 22 of these countries sent films, though AMPAS mysteriously disqualified 5- Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan and Thailand.  

 

Afghanistan- “No Good Men” Afghanistan, which is now sadly back under barbaric Taliban rule, hasn’t sent a film since 2019. I hope they return one day, possibly with a selection committee “in exile”, since their filmmakers continue to work and make excellent films while living abroad. This year, it would be wonderful to have “No Good Men”, a dramedy filmed in Germany about a modern careerwoman working at a local TV station, in the race. Described as a (sort of) Afghan rom-com, it’s directed by Shahrbanoo Sadat, who is one of the country’s leading female filmmakers.

Australia- “First Light” Obviously most Australian movies are made in English but they’ve participated in this Oscar category more or less regularly since 2006. Although you’d expect they’d mostly send films in native Aboriginal languages, they haven’t sent one since “Charlie’s Country” in 2014. Since then, Australia has sent films made by Aussie directors in some of the world’s most far-flung places- Afghanistan (twice), Bhutan, Italy, Macedonia, Mongolia, Thailand, Vanuatu, as well as the Persian community in Melbourne. This year, they could add Palestine or the Philippines to that list, by sending either Gaza aid worker documentary “Until the Sky Falls Quiet” or “First Light”, a moral dilemma drama (I love these!) about a Filipino nun who witnesses a fatal accident.  They could also return to Mongolia for the second year in a row with “Iron Winter”, a documentary about efforts to save a herd of horses during a particularly brutal Mongolian winter. Any of these are possible, but I have a hunch the fiction feature will beat out the documentaries. Dark horse: “Ripples in the Mist”, about two Hong Kong women living in Australia by Clara Law, who made Australia’s first-ever Oscar submission thirty years ago.

Bangladesh- “Master” Bangladesh has had a good film year and they usually send something interesting to promote their national cinema. I see a total of seven option....In alphabetical order: (1)- “Blind Girl & an Elephant” (Shanghai), about three girls trying to escape their superstitious village, (2)- “Bonolota Express”, a box-office smash adventure-comedy with very good reviews, (3)- “Delupi” (Rotterdam), a small environmental drama about rural flooding, (4)- “Master” (Rotterdam), a political thriller about an honest man who becomes tainted by local politics, (5)- “Roid” (Rotterdam again), about a rural man dealing with a mentally ill wife, (6)- “Sand City” (Karlovy Vary/Busan), about two strangers who collect sand (?), and (7)- “The University of Chankrapul”, a political satire featuring cutthroat university politics. Variety called “Master” a  ‘gripping drama’ and Deadline called it the first Bangladeshi film to win a major award at a European festival. I think the Bangladeshi Academy is brave enough to send something a bit political….It’s definitely their best option if it gets a cinematic release somewhere and it's the one I hope to see representing Bangladesh at the Oscars. “Roid”, whose director has been picked before for “Hawa”, will likely be runner-up with mega-hit “Bonolota” in third. I can confirm those have screened at cinemas. 

Bhutan- “The Debt Call” “Dobchu”, the hit horror film that dominated Bhutan’s 2026 Film Awards was released in last year’s cycle so it's not eligible. Bhutan doesn’t usually submit to the Oscars unless they have a film on the international film festival circuit...but if they do send a film this year, it’s like to be “Pindarikaa” (which looks pretty gorgeous), which looks like some sort of swords-and-sorcery action movie, or “The Debt Call”, a  gritty drama about a rape victim who abandons her baby. “Debt Call” got screened in Australia which means it definitely has the subtitles necessary to be submitted, so that’s my prediction.

Cambodia- “Becoming Human” Cambodia didn’t have any festival films last year so they sent a flawed but fun and very creepy horror movie before it was disqualified for unknown reasons. This year, they’ll probably choose between two festival films- Rithy Panh’s ethno-environmental documentary “We Are the Fruits of the Forest” (Berlin/Tokyo) and supernatural drama “Becoming Human” (Busan/Shanghai). They usually pick the Oscar-nominated Panh but I have a hunch that the more visible “Becoming Human”, about a female ghost who is faced with the difficult choice of earthly haunting or rebirth, will get this. I have family dramas “The Old Man” and “Me & My Brother” as unlikely runner-ups.

China- “I Know Who You Are” The Chinese Academy changed tactics last year - instead of sending a terrible film, they sent a good one. Sure “Dead to Rights” was a nationalist war film, but it looked great, was well-made and acted and, most importantly, filmed with an adult audience in mind. This was a shift from terrible big-budget action sequels “Wandering Earth 2” and “Wolf Warrior 2” or cute but inappropriate Oscar entries like kiddie anime “Ne Zha”.  China is notoriously difficult to predict but I see the two frontrunners as expensive martial arts period piece “Blades of the Guardians” and regime drama “I Know Who You Are”, which is directed by Feng Xiaogang (previously picked for “Aftershock” and “Back to 1942”) which covers 40 years of Chinese history. “I Know Who You Are” looks stronger on paper, although it was reportedly a flop at the box-office. “Blades of the Guardians” looks like the sort of big-budget action movie China has generally picked in recent years (and it’s already been released on Amazon, which I think helps) but although it was made in China, in Mandarin Chinese, by a Mainland film studio, it’s talent is mainly from Hong Kong…so HK may claim it instead. Two other possibilities from this land of one billion people- Teochew melodrama “Dear You” (aka “A Letter to Grandma”), a tearjerker with no stars that has unexpectedly become China’s top box-office hit of the year, though I’m not sure China will select a film in a regional Chinese dialect; and abstract sci-fi drama “Resurrection” (Cannes 2025) has gotten mostly great reviews…. but it’s much more arthouse than we’ve seen from China in years. Three other potential frontrunners have been sidelined – 17^th century period epic “The Belief” was supposed to be China’s summer blockbuster but it was mysteriously pulled from cinemas before its premiere; “Living the Land” won Best Director in Berlin 2025, and was approved by the Chinese censors…but it has been the subject of a nationalist backlash and hasn’t actually made it to cinemas; and “Scare Out”, a thriller by the usually reliable Oscar nominee Zhang Yimou, has received absolutely poisonous reviews from critics. I’m probably way off….but I’m predicting “I Know Who You Are” for now.

Fiji- “Adi” Fiji sent a movie once, way back in 2005 but they don’t have a developed national film industry and rarely make films. However, there has been buzz about the first entirely Fijian-language film, “Adi”, about a woman called on to perform the traditional duties of a male chief. Would make a great second entry. 

Hong Kong- “The Furious” So, the Hong Kong Academy usually sends either action movies or moody melodramas. If they go “action” this year, then “The Furious” is likely to be their pick. One of their best-reviewed and most exciting action movies in years, “The Furious” is a sort of HK version of “Taken”, with a vengeful (and mute) father searching for his missing daughter who has been abducted by human traffickers. The director is Japanese but he has longstanding connections to Hong Kong and could definitely be seen as “local”.  Big-budget action movie “Blades of the Guardians”, reputed to cost over $100 million, is also possible, although it could also compete for CHINA. The critically maligned crime drama “Sons of the Neon Night” is supposed to be a very beautifully made film and it won most of the tech awards at this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards where it also got a Best Picture nomination…so someone must like it?? If they want “melodrama”, then the frontrunners are “Afterpiece” (Shanghai), which looks like a Cantonese “Sentimental Value”; and “Cyclone”, a transgender tale that closed the HK Film Festival. There’s also “Ciao UFO”, a drama that swept this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards (Film, Director and Screenplay), plus quirky reincarnation anime “Another World”, showing off Chinese animation in a genre traditionally dominated by Japan. Based on the Hong Kong Academy’s preferences, I think the popular “Furious” will be picked, though growing buzz for “Afterpiece” and the sheer size of “Blades” could elevate either of those films to the top. I have “Another World”, which arguably has the best reviews, in a distant fourth.

India- TBD This will take too long. "Homebound" was shortlisted last year which means the stubborn Indian selection committee may have learned that (1)- films from major festivals do well and (2)- it helps to have a strong U.S. backer (like Martin Scorsese) helps. However, India didn't have many films at major festivals this year (certainly none with the gravitas of "Homebound") and I don't know of any Indian films with a Hollywood backer. "Ramayana" looks promising...but it won't premiere until November. They've picked Hindi-language "Bollywood" predictions two years in a row, so regional films may have the edge. I'll do this one later. 

Indonesia- “Four Seasons in Java”  Indonesia is difficult to predict because the Indonesian Academy chooses from a very diverse range of films….In the past eight years they’ve sent a gory horror film, a commercial Netflix comedy, a popular sci-fi romance based on a web-series, a political thriller, a Tarantino-esque feminist thriller, an LGBT drama that upset Islamists, and two arthouse dramas. Six out of eight were chosen from the major international film festivals, but two had virtually no play at all. The national Citra Awards are the best precursor….four of these submissions won Best Picture while the other four were nominated (though most of this year’s contenders will be eligible for this year’s awards so it doesn't help at all). As the world’s fourth-largest country, Indonesia has plenty of films to choose from, but I see the five leading candidates (in alphabetical order) as (1)- “Four Seasons in Java” (Toronto 2026), (2)- “Ghost in the Cell” (Berlin Forum 2026), (3)- “Levitating” (Sundance), (4)- “Nobody Loves Kay”, and (5)- “On Your Lap”  (Busan), which also won Best Picture at the 2025 Citra Awards. Joko Anwar (“Ghost in the Cell”) and Kamila Andrini (“Four Seasons in Java”) are both seeking to be picked a second time - something only two Indonesian directors have achieved before. I’m putting my money on Kamila and “Four Seasons”, which is about a sexual assault survivor who faces an angry community after being released from prison for killing her attacker. While nobody has seen it yet, Andrini impressed with “Yuni” and the well-timed late release in Toronto could provide the buzz to win. However, it is scheduled to be released in October so it would need a qualifying run. If not "Seasons", it seems likely Indonesia will pick Citra Award winner “On Your Lap”, a social drama about the “hostess” industry, or maybe Anwar’s crazy “Ghost in the Cell”, a supernatural-prison-drama-action-musical-horror-comedy (?!?!!), about a violent prison facing off against a ghost. I have “Levitating” in 4^th and “Kay” in 5^th. Dark horses include husband-and-wife thriller “Dopamine” (which I really want to see), and a local remake of Iranian Oscar nominee “Children of Heaven”.

Japan- “All of a Sudden” Japan loves Cannes. In the past eight years, they got six of their submissions from Cannes (the exceptions were anime “Weathering with You” and thriller “Cloud”, both of which were surprises and poor choices). This year, the preference for Cannes will help five films- Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden”,  Oscar nominee Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Sheep in the Box” and Koji Fukada’s “Nagi Notes” (all of which were in the Main Competition”), plus Kiyoshi Kurosawa’s “The Samurai and the Prisoner” and the far less high-profile “All the Lovers in the Night”, starring Tadanobu Asano. The Hamaguchi film definitely has the best reviews but it’s mostly in French...and I’m not sure how the Japanese will feel about that….I think it will be okay because it's not like "Sacred Fig" or "Mustang"...the film does have three lead Japanese actors....so I expect it’s okay. Kurosawa is #2 for his samurai "Knives Out"…but he was picked just two years ago and the Japanese Academy rarely repeats directors so soon. But Japan makes odd choices sometimes (look at “Cloud”) and there are a lot of other choices. Puzzle mystery “Bakudan”, referred to as the Japanese “Seven”, was a huge hit; teen runaway drama “Burn” (Sundance) also sold out cinemas; Hirokazu Koreeda's “Look Back”, about two mismatched guys brought together by a love of manga will premiere in Venice and will be Koreeda’s second contender of the year; and “Tokyo Taxi” is a sweet little drama about an elderly woman and a taxi driver, which could be the final film of 94-year old Yoji Yamada, who has made 91 feature films and represented Japan at the Oscars five times (including the Oscar-nominated “Twilight Samurai”). One possible final candidate is “Godzilla Minus Zero”. I was ready to predict “Godzilla” because Takashi Yamazaki is a respected director who has never been picked for the Oscars (he should have been picked for “Always: Sunset on Third Street”, which was somehow snubbed by the sweet but forgettable “Hula Girls”) even though he’s an Oscar winner for “Godzilla Minus Zero”. The problem is that it’s not expected to be released until November and a blockbuster like this isn’t the sort of film that you can arrange a 7-day secret release for….This is hard. I think the finalists will be “All of a Sudden”, “Look Back” and maybe “Godzilla”...with “Burn” if they’re looking to reward somebody new. I hated “Drive My Car” so it pains me to say this, but I’m predicting Hamaguchi, followed by Koreeda's "Look Back". 

Kazakhstan- “Turgaud” Last year, Kazakhstan was disqualified because of a conflict-of-interest issue, because the selection committee chose horror film “Cadet” even though cinematographer Yerkinbek Ptyraliyev was part of the committee. I’m actually very unsure of what Kazakhstan will send this year. Their best option would appear to be “Turgaud”, a violent Tarantino-esque “neo-western” about mafia loyalty, directed by Adilkhan Yerzhanov. But the Kazakh Academy has an odd relationship with Yerzhanov…It’s true that he was picked in 2021 and 2025 (he directed “Cadet”) but he submitted a very well-reviewed film for consideration in 2023 and Kazakhstan decided to send nothing rather than send it to the Oscars. Yerzhanov is incredibly prolific and makes 1-2 movies each year. If they don’t want to pick him again so soon, they could go with doping/swimming drama “Becoming” (Locarno), counterterrorism biopic “Capitan Baitasov”, mother-daughter drama “Malika” (Busan) or dark social media parable “Sicko”….Finally, they could arrange a qualifying release for big Communist-era epic “The Nomad’s Legacy”, directed by Maria Kunarova (“The Crying Steppe”) and which is scheduled for a domestic release in November.  It’s one of the more wide-open races in Asia this year…For now, I’ll predict “Turgaud” (which is probably what they should send), with “Sicko” (which also looks great) and “Malika” as the most likely runner-ups.

Korea- “Possible Love” South Korea has had a relatively quiet year which makes it all the more strange that they asked for submissions so incredibly early (June 19), making it difficult for films scheduled for a fall release to qualify. The proof? In 2023, there were 14 films submitted, in 2024, 15 and in 2025, 19. This year, there were just six. Three of them are sci-fi/horror films (“Colony”, “Hope” and “Salmokji”) and this committee generally dislikes that. The others include a noir crime drama (“Project Y”), an obscure documentary (“Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema”) and one drama (“Possible Love”). “Possible Love” is directed by Lee Chang-dong, an aging auteur director, former Minister of Culture, three-time Palme d’Or nominee, Venice Silver Lion winner and the first-ever Korean director to make the Oscar shortlist (for “Burning”). “Possible Love” and has been announced for the Main Line-up at Venice. In such an exceptionally weak year, "Possible Loves" will clearly be selected. For the record, it’s a 3-hour drama about the intersecting lives of four strangers. So, in order….

1.      1. Possible Love (Venice, Main Competition)....which could actually go to the Oscars automatically if it wins Venice, giving a second spot to....

      2. Hope (Cannes Main Competition), a genre-bending monster movie featuring cameos by Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander (Letterboxd: 3.3)

M  3. Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema, an obscure (vanity?) documentary featuring the 85-year old founder of the Busan Film Festival visiting cinemas, and meeting with some very high-profile international directors (including Lee Chang-dong!) (Letterboxd: 3.3)

3.     4. Colony (Cannes, Midnight Screening), high-concept zombie/mutant virus movie (Letterboxd: 3.3)

5.    5. Project Y (Toronto/Busan) A female noir heist thriller that nobody seems to love (Letterboxd: 2.9)

6.     6. Salmokji, a horror movie with middling reviews (Letterboxd: 2.7)

Kyrgyzstan- “Kurak” In my opinion, the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan may be the best film-making country that has never been nominated. Though they have few resources or funds for PR, they submit solid films year after year. This year, they have no less than four films at major international film festivals- “Backstage Madness” (Tallinn Black Nights), “Kurak” (Busan), “Mergen” (Rotterdam) and “Skylark” (Shanghai), plus the sequel to the record-breaking box-office hit “Paradise at Mother’s Feet 2” which was sent to the Oscars in 2024. This is probably between (1)- “Kurak”, a drama about the Kyrgyz women’s rights movement, fighting against long-standing gender-based violence and patriarchy, and (2) “Paradise 2”, a religiously themed Islamic drama sequel that would probably be a poor choice. “Skylark”, which premiered a few weeks ago and which would be the first film directed by a Kyrgyz woman to be submitted, is a potential dark horse. It’s a “coming-of-age village drama”…and the Kyrgyz have sent a lot of these over the years!

Laos- “Kong Koi” (aka "Wrecked") Laos sent a single horror film to the Oscars in 2017. I know of two domestic releases this year, neither of which seems likely to convinced them to come back. Horror film “Kong Koi” is about a female ghost from Thai/Lao mythology that haunts the jungle on one leg, while “Philo: For Love” seems to be some sort of kidnapping thriller. I vote for “Kong Koi”.

Malaysia- “Khadam” Malaysia began submitting regularly to the Oscars in 2019. This year, they have a number of options and no obvious frontrunner. Malaysia used to unofficially only consider films in Malay, the country’s official language, even though the country’s most acclaimed films usually came from the Chinese minority. That has now changed. I see the three frontrunners (in alphabetical order) as “Badak” (Netflix), “Fox King” (Toronto/Busan 2025) and “Khadam”. Father-daughter drama “Badak” sounds a bit like a cross between “Coda” and “Gully Boy”, as a young female rapper seeks to start a music career over the objections of her working-class (and deaf!) father. The director, a Singaporean Malay, previously represented Singapore for “La Luna”.  Domestically, reviews have been good and most of Malaysia’s recent selections had Netflix backing so this is a strong possibility. “Fox King”, a coming-of-age drama about two twin brothers more or less abandoned by their father after his re-marriage, has festival cred from Toronto and Busan. But the Southeast Asians love their scary movies (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand have all sent full-on horror films to the Oscars) and “Khadam” is the best-reviewed one of the year. It's a slow-burn horror film about a woman facing off against a supernatural entity that is targeting her young daughter. “Macai” (Rotterdam), a crime-thriller about the country’s Tamil Indian community, is a potential dark horse, as is “Mother Bhumi” (starring Fan Bingbing!), although director Keat Aun Chong was selected last year. I think “Khadam” is going to Hollywood.

Mongolia- “Colors of White Rock” Like Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia almost always sends fantastic films to the Oscars year after year without any recognition. I am always very excited to see their entry…I’ve seen all of them and they haven’t sent a bad one yet…The strongest (“The Steed”) deserved an Oscar nomination and even the weakest (“Veins of the World”) was just fine. This year, Mongolia seems to have three possibilities from major festivals –  dramas “The Muralist” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Unopened Letter” (Moscow) and documentary “Colors of White Rock” (Tribeca) - plus a drama called “Hello Mother”.  The director of “The Muralist” was picked last year for the wonderful original “Silent City Driver” (which won Tallinn 2024) so I think they’ll spread the wealth and give this to “Colors of White Rock”, a documentary about the life of a female long-haul truck driver – one of the few in macho Mongolia, with “The Muralist” as the runner-up. But it could logically be any of these four. 

Nepal- “Elephants in the Fog” Every year, there is one country whose submission process is a shit show. Last year was Nepal, where jealous filmmakers trashed the selection of women’s football drama “Anjila” after a brief selection process that coincided with domestic unrest. With a Cannes Un Certain Regard Jury Prize for transgender tale “Elephants in the Fog”, hopefully this year will be easier for Nepal. The film is getting a domestic release in September (possibly to coincide with the Oscar deadline?) and has very good reviews, so this should be an easy win for them. If they do choose to send a more “commercial” social drama (as they often do), expect child marriage drama “Gauthali” or family drama “Aa Bata Aama” to be in the running.

New Zealand- “Crocodile” New Zealand was a regular participant in this category from 2011-2018, sending films mostly in Pacific languages (Maori and Samoan) but also Persian and Chinese. Since then, they’ve only sent one film, despite a number of very good options…so it seems they don’t see this category as a priority anymore, unlike neighboring Australia. Two previously submitted directors have new films this year who could potentially get the Kiwis to fill out the paperwork- Pietra Brettkelly’s crazy cell phone documentary “Crocodile” (in Nigerian Pidgin) and Tearepa Kahi’s war docudrama “Sgt. Haane” (in Maori)…but both of those could be more than 50% in English. I’m not sure. PNG environmental documentary “Sukundimi Walks Before Me” would be a safer choice. But since Brettkelly has been picked twice and got screened at Berlinale, that’s my prediction.

Pakistan- “Ghost School” While their neighbors in India and Nepal squabble over their Oscar choices, Pakistan’s committee consistently sends solid entries whenever they can....in a delightfully eclectic mix of genres, ranging from social dramas and comedies, to animation and horror. “Joyland” deserved to be nominated; “Circus of Life” probably deserved to win. They didn’t really have anything last year and so they skipped, but I think they will be back this year with one of their two films on the festival circuit, “Lali” (Berlin Panorama) or “Ghost School” (Toronto/Berlin 14+).  Family drama “Lali”, about a newly married woman whose previous three fiancees have died, is by the director of “Circus of Life”, so I have very high hopes. But “Ghost School”, a mystery about a young girl trying to solve the mystery of why her local school was suddenly closed, has slightly better reviews. Dark horse: neither of the two frontrunners has had a cinematic release yet (apparently "Ghost School" was banned in Sindh but cleared censors in Punjab, but hasn't screened in either state) so they could consider the dark action-comedy “Aag Lagay Basti Mein”…They picked a similar film in 2019.

Papua New Guinea- “Sereva: A Papuan Tale” Papua New Guinea tried to make its Oscar debut last year but well-meaning ethnic road movie “Papa Buka” was mysteriously disqualified for unknown reasons. While the film was clearly a debut effort, it was a great showcase for emerging Pacific cinema. I doubt they’ll return this year, but they did make an open call for submissions again. If they do, it could be “Sereva: A Papuan Tale”, a feature documentary made by an Italian director about a rural boy’s quest to build a canoe.

Philippines- "Filipiñana" The Philippines has one of the most confusing races of the year though I finally settled on “Filipiñana”, just because it really has played almost everywhere since its premiere earlier this year in both Sundance (where it won a Special Jury Award) and Berlin and because it got a U.S. distributor (Kino Lorber) that would theoretically help the cash-strapped country promote its film. It’s a dark comedy and class satire set at an elite golf club that looks like it will resonate with both American and international audiences. It seems like it would be a good choice. Their other top candidate is “Silenced Nights”, a drama about the witness to an extrajudicial killing….a seriously hot topic in the Philippines. It is hoping to go to the Oscars automatically via the Toronto Platform Prize…so expect the Philippines to make its announcement late, after Toronto. I have a major hunch it will be one of these two films, but there are lots of other options from this nation of over 100 million. Rural land rights documentary “Bloom Where You Planted “ won Best Picture at last year’s Cinemalaya festival for indie cinema, and the Philippines have picked many of their past submissions from there; Jun Lana’s “Call Me Mother” is a dramedy about a lesbian raising her beloved stepdaughter whose life turns upside down when her ex wants her biological child back; the animated “58^th” re-enacts the events following a 2009 massacre that shook the country, and is the latest from the director of “The Missing”, Lav Diaz’s latest heavy drama “Let Us Through, Dear Ancestors” is set to premiere in Venice (though I don’t think he’ll be picked twice in a row)….”The Loved One”, about two ex-lovers who reunite, was a major critical and box-office hit; ”Manila’s Finest”, a period drama following a 1970s murder investigation got good reviews at Metro Manila; “Quezon” is a dull-looking political biopic that has gotten lots of nominations at local awards show and finally “Raging” (Berlin) is jungle drama about a local boy investigating a plane crash.

Singapore- “We Are All Strangers” 32-year old Singaporean wunderkind Anthony Chen has been picked three times before, including for the first two films in his “Growing Up” trilogy. The third film – “We Are All Strangers” – premiered in the Main Competition at Berlin and is sure to represent the city-state.  It’s a family melodrama with very strong reviews…arguably his best since “Ilo Ilo”. Girl gang drama “Amoeba” (Toronto) also has very good reviews but probably doesn’t stand a chance against Chen. Unknown: odd sci-fi wuxia action film “The House on the Moon” is set to premiere in the Main Competition at Locarno, making two Class-A festivals for tiny Singapore.

Sri Lanka- “Riverstone” Sri Lanka has a fairly developed film industry but they haven’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2009. If they return, I’ll make the same prediction I did last year and suggest “Riverstone”, a “moral dilemma” drama about three Sri Lankan police transporting a condemned prisoner. It won two awards in Shanghai last year and appears to have gotten a local Sri Lankan release this past spring. I'd love to see this film bring them back.

Taiwan- “A Foggy Tale” I see three main possibilities for Taiwan this year- wedding farce “Double Happiness” (Tokyo), about a man getting married at two weddings simultaneously to please his divorced parents, grim coming-of-ager “Girl” (Venice, Main Competition ’25), which is the directorial debut of actress Shu Qi, and “A Foggy Tale”, a road movie full of gallows humor set against the background of Taiwan’s “White Terror”, in which the military regime killed real or suspected political opponents. Interestingly, all three films (and last year’s Oscar-shortlisted “Left-Handed Girl”) competed against each other at the Taipei Film Festival, which features a local “Taiwanese Film Awards”. “Foggy Tale” won Film, Screenplay and three tech awards, “Double Happiness” won Director, Actor and Supporting Actor, “Left-Handed Girl” won Editing (Sean Baker!), and New Talent, while “Girl” just won a single Cinematography award. More important than the Taipei Awards is Netflix; five of their last seven Oscar submissions had Netflix deals, which bodes well for “Foggy Tale” and “Double Happiness”. In the end, I think the more serious nature of “Foggy” (plus the better reception at TFF) will play in its favor over "Double Happiness". Dark horses: It was obscure music documentary “Dance of a Soloist” that actually won the Taipei Film Festival Grand Prize, while late release “I Blew Out the Candles Before Making a Wish”, about life in Macau, has been generating some late buzz. 

Tajikistan- “Fish on a Hook” Poor Tajikistan has the worst luck at the Oscars. They submitted a very good film (“Sex & Philosophy”) in 2005 but it was disqualified when the print didn’t arrive in Los Angeles in time. They next submitted in 2023 with “Melody”…which was disqualified because they didn’t have an approved selection committee (it was allowed to compete the following year). Last year, the charming “Black Rabbit, White Rabbit” – the best film of the three – was disqualified too, which I heard (but cannot confirm) was due to some odd music copyright violation. Only their initial 1999 submission (the excellent “Luna Papa”) made it to Hollywood unscathed. I visited Tajikistan on vacation this year and it is truly a beautiful and charming country. This year, they actually have two lovely rural dramas if they choose to remain in the competition…and I really hope they do. The first is “Fish on a Hook”, which won Best Picture at Tajikistan’s local film festival last year, and the second is “Another Birth” (Busan), made by a New York-based Tajik woman filmmaker. Both of these films about rural children make an excellent choice, and both would be the first time since “Luna Papa” that Tajikistan would be represented by a local Tajik filmmaker (the other three had Iranian directors who came to Tajikistan so they could make Persian-language films without Islamic censorship). It’s a tough decision, but I give the edge to “Fish on the Hook” since the director is Tajikistan-based and the film is an Iranian co-production like the previous three modern submissions.

Thailand- “Gohan” Like Korea, Thailand unexpectedly released an early shortlist last month…I don’t understand why they are doing this so early because there is a major advantage to seeing how late releases are received by critics....and because new films are often slated for release at the last minute. In any case, the eight finalists include three festival/“arthouse” entries- “Human Resource” (Venice Horizzonti/Busan), “Nine Temples to Heaven” (Cannes Director’s Fortnight) and “Regretfully at Dawn” (Busan), four “commercial entries”- “Four Tigers”, “Gohan”, “In the Name of Love” and “The Undertaker 2: Afterlife”, plus Pen-Ek Ratunaruang’s “Morte Cucina”, a thriller vehicle for Tadanobu Asano which falls halfway between the two categories. All but action-fantasy  “In the Name of Love”, (premiering in September) have screened for critics. I see this as a race between “Human Resource”, arguably the best-reviewed of the three festival films, stray dog anthology “Gohan”, which has been touted as a successor to the Oscar-shortlisted “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” and the buzzy "Nine Temples to Heaven". Unlike other countries, Thailand usually chooses commercial audience-pleasers rather than intellectual festival films (like the slow-moving “Nine Temples to Heaven”). “Gohan” tells three stories by three different directors about how one dog affects the lives of three human families. Two of these three directors have represented Thailand at the Oscars before and the film has been a major box-office and critical success. The Venice label will certainly “Human Resource”, a well-reviewed office drama about a young Thai woman working in HR who discovers she is pregnant. Its director has also been selected before. “Nine Temples to Heaven” has the Cannes label but this dull film is said to be similar to Apichatpong Weerasethakul…who is actually not popular in Thailand. “Morte Cucina” looks great and has star-power but reviews are probably the weakest of Pen-Ek Ratanaruang’s career. “Four Tigers” has great reviews but looks too light; “Undertaker 2” is a sequel to a film most people haven’t seen….The unreleased fantasy “In the Name of Love” could certainly surprise if it’s great but I still think “Gohan” and “Human Resource” are the strongest possibilities. "Gohan"'s artistic and tonal similarities to "Grandma", which got Thailand to the shortlist for the first time, mean I'm predicting it wins....but it will be very close. 

Uzbekistan- “The Great Amir and Donna Maria” Uzbekistan sent two films in 2019 and 2021 and then quickly gave up. It’s possible they could return with costume drama “The Great Amir and Donna Maria”, an epic historical film that looks gorgeous, about a woman in 2026 who learns her fate is somehow mysteriously linked to that of a European concubine enslaved in a 15^th century harem. It was made by the director of Uzbekistan’s last 2021 submission. However, it’s unclear to me if the film is in English or not. If it is, they could consider “Cotton” (Cairo), an arthouse film about a village woman desperately trying to make ends meet in the absence of her husband who disappeared while working abroad. But they’re the least likely of the four Central Asian republics to submit this year.

Vietnam- “Spirit Guardians” Vietnam makes mostly poor choices. In the past eight years, they have mostly veered away from arthouse cinema, choosing two commercial comedies (2018, 2021), two commercial action movies (2019, 2022), and two jingoistic war dramas (2024-2025). Many of these were not popular with local or international critics (especially embarrassing box-office flop “578 Magnum”). Only one, “Glorious Ashes”, played at anything resembling a major festival (Tokyo). This year, I don’t know of any big, patriotic dramas, which means I won't have to suffer through another "Red Rain". A normal country would probably choose “Ky Nam Inn” (Toronto/Busan), an intimate and critically acclaimed drama set in the 1980s, about the relationship between a younger man and an older widow after the fall of Saigon. That would probably be the choice if the year ended today…But I think they will ultimately send “Spirit Guardians: The Last Secret of the First Emperor”, a splashy 10^th century period martial arts fantasy starring Hollywood actor and stuntman Johnny Tri Nguyen, which will premiere during Vietnam’s National Day holidays in September. It's already been picked for a Toronto TIFF premiere. I’m feeling good about this pick, though “Ky Nam Inn” will probably do better with Oscar voters. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Vietnam: “Zero Meets Hero”, a gentle, intergenerational comedy about a war veteran and his Gen-Z grandson encountering Vietnamese folk traditions on a road trip, “Blood Moon Rite 8”, a very well-reviewed horror-comedy that I’d love to see, and “Bunny”, a commercial Netflix thriller made by a previously submitted director. Not considered: “Hearing” will premiere in Locarno but the director’s previous film “Taste” was banned and the directors subjected to fines for making it without permission.

MIDDLE EAST and AFRICA Predictions for International Feature Film at the 2026 Oscars

And here are my predictions for the MENA region (the Middle East and North Africa) followed by the films from sub-Saharan Africa.  

The countries of sub-Saharan Africa submitted just four films last year (Madagascar, South Africa and Uganda, plus Senegal, which was disqualified). The more established North African countries sent three more. This was surprising because a record number of African countries had announced selection committees (15, by my count). With strong potential entries by Congo, Kenya, Rwanda and Sudan, I think the number will go up this year.

I did very well with my predictions from the region last year, predicting 8/15 correctly. 

Algeria- “Chronicles from the Siege” Algeria took last year off, announcing that they didn’t have any films of sufficient quality to send to the Oscars. I expect this year will be a fierce two-way race between two politically tinged dramas – Malek Bensmail’s “The Arab” (Rotterdam) and Abdallah al-Khatib’s “Chronicles from the Siege” (Berlin). “The Arab”, which co-stars Hiam Abass and the late Ahmed Benaissa, re-examines Camus’ French classic “The Stranger” (and recent Algerian history) from an Algerian point of view. “Chronicles from the Siege” is a drama about Palestinians trying to survive Israeli occupation. This will be interesting. “Chronicles” is higher-profile, and neighboring Tunisia got an Oscar nomination last year with a film about Palestine. But though the film is a majority Algerian production, the director is a Germany-based, Syria-born Palestinian. But “The Arab” recently had its Algerian screenings pulled for unknown censorship reasons and it’s not scheduled to be released in French cinemas until November. A similar thing happened to “Papicha” a few years ago, which was sent by Algeria. So I’ll pick “Chronicles” for now. Horror-drama “Roqia”, which looked like an early frontrunner last year in Venice, will fail to dislodge these two leading political dramas. 

Egypt- “The Stories”  A few years ago, it was hard to find even one movie that could capably represent Egypt at the Oscars, but this year there are no less than eight- two Berlinale dramas (“Safe Exit” and “The Settlement”), three “big” new films by previously submitted and very accomplished directors- Abu Bakr Shawky’s “The Stories”, Mohamed Diab’s “Asad” and Marwan Hamed’s “El Sett”- and three smaller dark horses - absurdist comedy-drama “Complaint #713317” (Cairo/Rotterdam), documentary “One More Show”, and slow burn drama “My Father’s Scent”. Based on reviews alone, I think “The Stories” will be selected. It’s a sprawling film following two decades of Egyptian history (very “Oscary”), through the eyes of a man, his family and the Austrian student he is courting (based on the director’s parents). Shawky was previously picked for “Yomeddine”, its online review scores are the highest....it just generally looks like the most solid choice.  Close behind are “Asad”, a period drama about slavery in 19th century Egypt (director Diab deserved an Oscar nod for “Clash” but AMPAS didn't even shortlist it) and “My Father’s Scent”, a drama about family secrets that come out after a man dies. “El Sett”, a 3-hour biopic about one of the country’s greatest singers, and “One More Show”, a documentary about a Gaza circus are also possible…though “Sett” is probably “too local” and Egypt has never picked a documentary. From this list, the film I most want to see is absolutely dark comedy “Complaint”, about an elderly couple facing off against Egyptian bureaucracy. Looks great!  

Iran- “Land of Angels” So, without getting into politics, I’m fairly certain that Iran will boycott the Oscars this year due to their military conflict with the U.S....That would mean the Islamic Republic will be absent for just the second time since 1997 (they foolishly boycotted in 2012 because they didn’t like a YouTube video). If they do send a film (which they won’t), they’ll probably want to send a film that either shows Iran in a good light, or the U.S. and Israel in a bad one. That would seem to be “The Land of Angels”, which won Best Iranian Feature at the Fajr Film Festival and which focuses on a woman in Gaza seeking to save the lives of a group of children amidst Israeli attacks. A lighter option would be “Boating in Tehran”,  a sort-of-romantic-comedy about an Iranian man in the U.S. who returns to Iran to find a bride and get married. It shows Iran in a very human light and has a senior director with close ties to the regim. They have lots of other options but it would be a waste of time to go into them since they are unlikely to participate.

Iraq- “Irkalla- Gilgamesh’s Dream” Iraq was shortlisted last year for “The President’s Cake”, which was better than any of the five films that eventually got nominated. Sigh. Iraq should have a pretty easy decision this year, as I expect they will submit the critically acclaimed “Irkalla: Gilgamesh’s Dream”, an Arabic-language film by Mohamed al-Daradji who has been selected to represent Iraq three times. The film looks wonderful, and is about a 9-year living in wartime Iraq, who is convinced that local myths will help to bring his dead parents back to life. Iraq made the shortlist last year with the story of a 9-year old, so this will probably be the one. If they believe it’s the Kurdish region’s “turn”, then they could arrange a release for "No Paradise If You Are Killed by a Woman", which is also made by a previously submitted director, and which is about female Kurdish peshmerga fighters. However, I expect it will be eligible next year. Good luck to Irkalla!

Israel- “Our Loves” In June, the Israeli Film Academy announced the 22 films contending for the award and I put them in an IMDB List. The winner of the Best Picture award, which usually has 5 nominees, automatically represents Israel at the Oscars as long as it's not in English (like "The Band's Visit"). I predicted that three films would easily be nominated - (1)- “Our Loves” (just announced for Toronto), a multi-storyline drama set against the background of the October 7th terrorist attacks, (2)- “Tell Me Everything” (Sundance), a father-son drama set during the 1980s HIV/AIDS epidemic and (3)- “Where To?” (Berlin), a talky drama set in Berlin, about a middle-aged Palestinian driver and an Israeli youth who repeatedly cross paths in his Uber vehicle. I predicted that "Double Panther" (looks like an Israeli "The Departed") and "Heart of Gold" (a woman adopts an abandoned baby) would get the other two slots. When the Ophir nominations were announced last week, the three frontrunners were nominated, alongside three others: Poland-set drama "Mama" (Cannes), Orthodox wedding comedy "The Wedding Entertainer" (Tribeca), and an obscure out-of-left-field drama called "Home!" that hasn't screened anywhere. I still totally believe this is a race between the first three films, which were all nominated for Best Film, Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Ophirs (so was "Mama").

LGBT drama "Tell Me Everything" seems more likely than taxi movie "Where To?" for a couple of reasons. "Tell Me Everything" is the most nominated film in Ophir history and seems to have slightly stronger reviews. But the wild card is "Our Loves", which nobody has seen yet. The tragedy of October 7 looms large in Israel, where 1200 people were murdered that day by Hamas terrorists. Director Avi Nesher has had his films nominated numerous times but he's never won anything. Bad luck, or do they just not like him? Will this subject be "important enough" to finally award him? "Tell Me Something" director Moshe Rosenthal is also "owed". He was expected to win the Ophir and go to the Oscars in 2021 for "Karaoke"....but "Cinema Sabaya" (which was very good) was the surprise winner that year. Three of the past five years, Israel has picked a film about Israel's Palestinian community....so "Where To?" can't be counted out entirely. Based on the subject matter, I'm predicting "Our Loves"...but "Tell Me Everything" is definitely very, very possible. We'll find at the Ophir ceremony on September 9!

 

Jordan-  “Sink” Jordan has a three-way race but the obvious frontrunner is “Sink” (Toronto), a drama about a mother dealing with the debilitating mental health issues of her teenaged son. It looks like a more serious entry than local dark comedy “Simsim”, about a woman seeking to escape an unhappy marriage by netting her terrible husband a second wife, and coming-of-age crime drama "Boomah" (Shaghai). However, Jordan often sends majority Palestinian productions (like last year's shortlisted "All That's Left of You") so they sometimes pick something I didn't realize was eligible…That could benefit upcoming documentary “Concrete Land”, which booked a Semaine de la Critique berth at Locarno. All this could change if “Occupational Hazards”, a black comedy set in Jerusalem, is released before September 30. Starring Hiam Abbass and written/directed by the writer of Oscar-nominated “Theeb”, this will win out on the off chance it gets finished…but since it’s part of the “Final Cut” screenings in Venice that’s very unlikely. Mark it down in ink for next year.

Kuwait- “The Boy Inside the Cocoon” Kuwait last sent a film to the Oscars in 1978, before I was born. That’s the longest absence of any country! There’s no indication they plan to return this year, but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “The Boy Inside the Cocoon”, a folk horror film about a boy dealing with his parent’s divorce and the death of his sister. It seems to have premiered in local cinemas in January. 

Lebanon- “Furies" Lebanon almost always chooses something released at the very last minute....which means the frontrunner is now "Furies", a feminist heist above two sisters trying to steal back money they lost during Lebanon's banking crisis. Though it's yet to premiere, it has booked berths at both Venice and Toronto and is executive produced by none other than George Clooney. That should do it. But if "Furies" is poorly received, they could also go with "Only Rebels Win" (Berlin Panorama), starring Hiam Abbass (again! Does this woman have body doubles?) It's a May-December romance about a widow (Abbass) who falls for a Sudanese asylum seeker. Dark horses: archival documentary "Do You Love Me?" (Venice 2025) and drama "Pipes" (Karlovy Vary).

Morocco- “Strawberries” For five of the past seven years, Morocco has simply picked a new film made by power couple Nabil Ayouch and Maryam Touzani, including last year’s criminally underappreciated “Calle Malaga” which deserved an Oscar nomination. Ayouch and Touzani don't have a new film this year and this year is somewhat quieter than previous years, but I predict that they’ll send Cannes Un Certain Regard title “Strawberries”, a well-reviewed film about two Moroccan women who face labor exploitation while working as seasonal strawberry pickers in Spain. The other possibility is “Behind the Palm Trees”, a drama about a man who becomes involved in a love triangle between his local girlfriend and a newly arrived French woman…It was the only Moroccan film in competition in Marrakech this year. Rounding out the Top 5: Director Noureddine Lakhmari has repped Morocco twice and his new “Mira” (Tallinn Black Nights) is about a rural village girl and her grandmother whose community is faced with an influx of migrants seeking to reach Europe (very topical, following the crisis in Ceuta!); “Bad Weather” is about a family conflict over a small inherited apartment; and “Halima” (Best Actress, Shanghai) is about an elderly woman who gets involved in the drug trade. 

Palestine- “Conversation with the Sea” Three films about Palestine made last year’s International Feature shortlist (plus “Butcher’s Stain”, an Israeli short which earned a Live-Action Short Oscar nomination). That included the entry from Palestine itself, which made the shortlist for the second year in a row. Palestinian artists and directors continue to impress. Most of Palestine’s contenders this year are documentaries (they sent docs in 2015, 2018 and 2023) and the two most likely are both about Gaza- "Citizen Osama" (Venice), about a photographer-turned-war-documentarian trying to protect his wife and child amidst Israeli strikes, and “The Mission”, about an Arab-British surgeon volunteering in the Gaza Strip. Interestingly, "Citizen Osama" was made by one of the 22 directors of "From Ground Zero", alongside its well-known producer Rashid Masharawi. “Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” and “Who Is Still Alive” have good reviews but foreign directors so I expect they're out of the running. Among fiction films, “Yunan” (Berlin), co-starring Hanna Schygulla, has the edge over “Yesterday the Eye Didn't Sleep” (Cannes Un Certain Regard), whose slow-moving plot has prompted some bloggers to argue that they did in fact sleep…..while the upcoming "Conversation with the Sea" (Venice and Toronto) and "13 in Gaza" (Toronto) look like potential serious threats if they get released in time. Dark horse: I’d love to see them send dark comedy “Once Upon a Time in Gaza”…but I think it was eligible last year (and probably isn't serious enough). I've changed my mind three times already but I'm predicting "Conversation with the Sea", about a father seeking to track down his long-lost son who disappeared two decades prior, due to its presence at two major festivals this year. "Osama" and Masharawi should be a razor-close second place.

Saudi Arabia- “Unidentified” Will Saudi Arabia go serious or silly? Ten years ago, this was not a question I thought I would ever ask, when cinema was banned and mullahs ran the kingdom…This year’s clear frontrunner is “Unidentified”, a thriller about a woman trying to solve the mystery of a young girl found dead in the desert. Reviews have been middling but director Haifaa al-Mansour is Saudi Arabia’s most well-known international filmmaker and she was personally involved in getting Saudi Arabia into the Oscar race back when cinemas were still closed. The film has also played at a number of festivals including Toronto and Tribeca. But Saudi Arabia unexpectedly picked an adult-themed comedy in 2023 and dark comedy “A Matter of Life and Death” – about a woman with a death wish and a man who dreams of murder - has gotten better reviews. I expect Saudi will go "serious" but both films look great. Unlikely but possible: mountain climbing documentary “Seven Summits”. 

Syria- “If Only the Year Had 364 Days” Syria sent a documentary to the Oscars in 2017 which was nominated by a pro-opposition selection committee in exile. Now that the civil war is over, we will probably see Syria return. In fact, Qatar has backed a $1.5 billion deal to build a massive entertainment, tourism, and film production hub in Syria. But I doubt that will happen this year. To check the box, I’ll predict “If Only the Year Had 364 Days”, a docu-drama about a political prisoner who returns to the notorious Syrian prison where he was tortured, following the revolution.

Tunisia- “Promised Sky” Tunisia has managed to make the International shortlist three times in the past six years, thanks to Kaouther Ben Hania, earning three Oscar nominations (two in International Film, one in Documentary Feature). If the year ended today, it would be foolish to bet against “Promised Sky”, a topical film about African migrants that has played at festivals around the world since its Cannes debut last year. I didn’t like Erige Sehiri’s previous film “Under the Fig Trees” so I’d prefer they chose the likely runner-up “Where the Wind Comes From”, a breezy road movie about two 20-year olds on a road trip to Tunisia’s desert south. In third place- Berlin drama “In a Whisper” is a French co-production about a lesbian (will the film be too gay for Tunisia?) coming home to Tunisia for a funeral and encountering murder mysteries and family secrets. I have dark horse “Têtes brûlées” (Berlin 2025, 14+), about adolescent grief and co-stars Hiam Abbass (is this woman in everything?). But wait one minute…Ben Hania has a new film (“Mimesis”) in post-production and there are rumors it's being prepped for a premiere soon (it was rumored for Venice but is not in the lineup). Could she finish it in time and do another “Hind Rajab”? We’ll see. Interesting trivia: ALL FIVE of the Tunisian frontrunners are directed by women…meaning that Tunisia is almost certain to select a female-helmed film for the fifth year in a row. A possible international record??

Turkey- “Empire of the Rabbits” I wrote up my predictions for Turkey in July. I said it was a wide-open race, but that I was predicting "Empire of the Rabbits" (Tallinn Black Nights). Apparently that was submitted last year even though it didn't get a wide cinematic release in Turkey until this year. Turkey ended up selecting a film I had never heard of at all...."Like a Limbless Tree"....so I had it wrong anyway. The obvious choice to represent Turkey – Emin Alper’s “Salvation”- wasn't likely to be considered because Alper has been a longtime critic of President Erdogan and publicly feuded with the Ministry of Culture…which forms the Oscar selection committee. In addition to "Empire of the Rabbits", I was also looking at “As We Breathe” (Toronto/Cairo), “Greatest Funeral Hits” (Tokyo), “Hear the Yellow” (Berlinale Forum) and “Bonds, Roots and Passions” in my (incorrect) Top Five. 

Yemen- “The Station”  War-torn Yemen has submitted three films since 2016, all of which exceeded my expectations (my favorite was “10 Days Before the Wedding”). This year, UK-Yemeni director Sara Ishaq, who got an Oscar nomination in the Doc Short category in 2014, had a new fiction feature at Cannes called “The Station”, about a gas station that employs and serves only women, amidst the country’s bloody civil war. It looks wonderful and has great reviews and I truly hope they form a committee to send it to Hollywood.

And here are the possibilities from sub-Saharan Africa....Over the years, 22 sub-Saharan African countries have sent films but each year only a few submit. Last year, there were just four. Here's a summary:

Will Submit:        Kenya, Senegal, South Africa

Probably Will:     Congo-Kinshasa, Nigeria, Rwanda (debut), Sudan, Uganda

50/50:                    Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Madagascar, Mozambique, Somalia

Probably Won't:  Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania

Won't Submit:    Lesotho, Mauritania, Namibia, Niger

Burkina Faso- “Katanga, The Dance of the Scorpions” The capital of African arthouse cinema has only officially entered the competition twice (in 1989 and 2023) which is a shame because they have made some of my favorite African films. A Burkinabe film- “Katanga, The Dance of the Scorpions”- won the local FESPACO African Film Festival in 2025 and it seems to have been released in African and European cinemas late that year. So if there’s any justice this sumptuous Shakespearean tragedy based on Macbeth should go to Hollywood…but maybe it’s too politically controversial for Burkina’s current military dictatorship?

Cameroon- “Malgré Tout” Between 2020-2024, Cameroon sent five films by three young directors to the Oscars. All three came from the same English-speaking region of Bamenda in northwestern Cameroon. One of them, Enah Johnscott, is making his French-language debut this year with “Malgré Tout”, about the problems faced by a young woman who has recently graduated from university. That’s definitely their most likely choice. 

Chad- “Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars” Impoverished Chad had a rare film last year at FESPACO and Toronto - “Diya”, about the grim tradition of requiring “blood money” from those who cause an accidental death. I’ve heard it’s pretty great. However, Chad’s three previous Oscar submissions were all made by auteur director (and former Minister of Culture) Mahamat-Saleh Haroun, so it would be silly to bet against “Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars” (Berlin/Toronto), a sci-fi drama about a 17-year girl experiencing troubling supernatural visions. 

Congo-Kinshasa- “Congo Boy” Congo sent a single film way back in 1997…but this year, they made the unexpected announcement that they were planning to return to the competition and that they were launching an official call for submissions. With a fiction film at Cannes Un Certain Regard (“Congo Boy”, also in Locarno), a documentary at Berlinale Panorama (“Enough is Enough”), and a genuine local box-office hit (“Rumba Royale”)  in the running, it’s a great year for a return. With plans for a pan-African release and special screenings in the U.S., I was going to predict this would go to historical thriller “Rumba Royale” set during the final years of Belgian colonial rule and featuring a thumping local soundtrack….but reviews for “Congo Boy” are much better. 

Côte d’Ivoire- “In the Shadow of Bitterness” The Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) sent films by Philippe Lacôte in 2015 and 2020 (somehow making the shortlist for the inscrutable poetry of “La nuit des rois”). This year, their most acclaimed film is a political documentary called “Far From Anger”, about women seeking justice for the atrocities of the 2011 civil war. But if they do return, they’re more likely to send the less controversial melodrama “Dans l’ombre de l’aigreur” (In the Shadow of Bitterness), about an unlucky businessman driven to desperate measures. I think they’ll skip. 

Ethiopia- “Dolivia” Ethiopia sent four films to the Oscars between 2010-2019 before giving up, although they do have a sizeable local film industry. This year’s highest profile film is 9-hour (?!) documentary “Black Lions – Roman Wolves”, which somehow played at Berlinale (hopefully there was a bathroom break). If Ethiopia did choose to return, they could send Amharic-language drama “Dolivia” (about gold miners) or Oromo-language folklore thriller “Keeper of the Lake”. 

Ghana- “Ego Reach We All (Our Time Will Come)” Ghana sent a film just once in 2019. Most of Ghanaian films are primarily in English, though some of those include enough of the local dialect to qualify under new rules that allow English-language films that require subtitles for international audiences to understand. This year, “Sukura: The Homecoming”, about an African-American man researching his family history in Ghana dominated the local film awards and is definitely too “English” to qualify. Ghana would need to be re-approved to enter the race (because they've been absent more than five years) but they could send one of two upcoming films- "Ego Reach We All (Our Time Will Come)" (in Twi, Ga and Pidgin English) which premiered this week in Locarno to excellent reviews, or “Zjili” (in the Dagbani and Twi languages), a drama about female labor migration which is set to premiere in Toronto Discovery next month. "Ego", a film about teenaged street kids that Variety just called an "atmospheric and emotionally absorbing feature debut", looks really beautiful. They also have local crime drama “King of T3ma”. I'm not confident "Ego" or “Zjili” can get a cinematic release by September 30, but "Ego" has a better chance of doing so....Maybe Ghana will be back next year?  

Kenya- “One Woman, One Bra” Kenya skipped last year due to a lack of suitable entries, but this year has been much stronger. Their most likely submission is “One Woman, One Bra” (Tribeca), which is a far more serious film than its title indicates, about an orphan trying to secure the rights to her father’s land against the encroachment of greedy neighbors. This looks great and is one of the African films I'm most excited to see this year. If not, it will probably be “Anam’s Wake”, a supernatural thriller by the director of “Supa Modo”, about a professional mourner who actually meets Death. Although Kenya will probably choose between these two, Kenya also has hijacking drama “Bus 338”, crime drama (and Swedish coproduction) “The Dog”, as well as documentaries “Kikuyu Land” (Sundance) and “Truck Mama” (Red Sea). Kenya will definitely be back.

Lesotho- Nothing The small mountain kingdom of Lesotho sent a film just once in 2020. The director of that film had a documentary that played in Berlin last year (“Ancestral Visions of the Future”) but it appears to be completely in English. They don’t have anything else to send. 

Madagascar- “Dear Ancestor” Madagascar joined the Oscar race last year for the first time with the intriguing drama “Disco Afrika”. While they probably won’t return this year, they do have “Dear Ancestor”, an unconventional documentary set in the year 2067, looking back on present-day mining and environmental activism (which was also the main theme of “Disco Afrika”). 

Malawi – “Chitomero” Malawi has entered the Oscar race twice and they could very well return this year with either “Chitomero”, about the controversial tradition of child betrothal, or “Royal Dilemma”, a rare costume drama from the region about the relationship between two noble families. I give the edge to “Chitomero” which got a cinematic release before being released online. 

Mauritania- “Undertows- A Tuareg Tale” Abderrahmane Sissako got an Oscar nomination for Mauritania in 2015 for “Timbuktu”. He waited a decade to make his next film (Chinese co-production “Black Tea”), which was notably not sent to the Oscars. So, Mauritania will be absent yet again. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Undertows”, a documentary focusing on the challenges faced by the Tuareg people living in the harsh Mauritanian-Malian Sahel. 

Mozambique- “The Prophet” Mozambique submitted a very good film in 2017 and they’re still the only one of the five Portuguese-speaking African countries ever to enter the Oscar race. This year, I am hoping that they return with “The Prophet” (Rotterdam), a supernatural B+W drama about a Christian pastor who makes an unholy deal with a witch to increase his influence over his congregation. Filmed over the course of nine years, it has played internationally and has English subtitles and hopefully will encourage them to return. They also have “Blood and Remorse”, a psychological thriller about how a tragic accident affects a group of friends. 

Namibia- Nothing Namibia sent the fascinating David Lynch-esque “Under the Hanging Tree” in 2023. Last year, they had an open call for submissions and received two entries but determined that one was a majority South African-production and the other wasn’t released within the eligibility window. Similarly, I think this year they won’t have anything eligible. Their highest-profile film - “Wrong Generation”, an indie drama about youth street protests - appears to be primarily in English. 

Niger- Nothing Coup-prone Niger submitted one film in 2018 but they’re among the least likely countries to return this year. I don’t think they have anything eligible, although “The Big Everything” (Le grand tout), a documentary featuring ordinary Nigerien people speaking about  politics and history would be an interesting choice. It was directed by a white French filmmaker with strong family ties to Niger. 

Nigeria- “Lady”  I don’t like to waste much time researching Nigeria because it’s hard to figure out what meets the language requirements and because their committee usually meets (perhaps for a buffet lunch?) and decides to send nothing….even when they have multiple suitable options. Nigeria, by far Africa’s most populous nation, has had an approved Oscar committee since 2014 but they’ve only sent films four times – including one that was 95% in standard English and disqualified. On paper, it would seem the frontrunner is UK co-production “Lady”, about a female driver who befriends a group of sex workers and becomes their personal chauffeur. It played in Berlin and won Best Acting Ensemble at the Sundance Film Festival but it’s in a mix of “English and Nigerian Pidgin English” and I’m not sure it’s eligible. “The Secret Lives of Baba Segi's Wives”, a comedy-drama-soap-opera about the four feuding wives of a wealthy Yoruba man, would be a fantastic option if they can do a qualifying release by September 30...It's currently scheduled to be released in December. There are also a number of pre-colonial Yoruba-language costume dramas in the running like “Segilola: The Villain” (which sounds really good), “King of Thieves 2” (Note: the well-reviewed first film in the series was submitted to the Nigerian committee which then decided to send nothing) and “Warlord”. If it meets the language requirement, my prediction is “Lady” but I'm personally hoping for “Baba Segi’s Wives” which definitely has enough foreign language content.

Rwanda- “Ben’imana” Rwanda got an official Oscar selection committee approved last year. Although they didn’t send a film, they are likely to debut this year with “Ben’imana”, which won the 2026 Cannes Un Certain Regard Camera d’Or this year. It’s about a woman who works in community rebuilding following the Rwandan genocide and, according to IMDB, has some sort of sci-fi element (?!). Whether it is picked or not will likely depend on whether it can get a 7-day cinematic release somewhere.  They also have basketball drama “Kwibuka”, which co-stars Jean-Hugues Anglade! 

Senegal- “Dao” African films rarely gets shortlisted but Senegal was shortlisted three times for the six films they sent between 2017-2024…though I didn’t think any of them deserved this honor (in my opinion, the best Senegalese submission - “Nafi’s Father”-  was ignored entirely). Five Senegalese directors have been selected over the years and two – Alain Gomis and Mamadou Dia – have new films this year. Dia, who was quietly disqualified for unknown reasons last year, has dance documentary “Atcha Atcha”, which is due to premiere in Locarno. French-born Gomis premiered “Dao”, described as a “sprawling 3-hour epic” about family traditions and ancestors set between France and Guinea-Bissau (though not Senegal). Berlin and Gomis give “Dao” the edge. 

Somalia- “Barni” Somalia sent a lovely film to the Oscars just once in 2021. If they return this year, it will surely be “Barni” (Locarno 2025), a well-reviewed drama directed by Somali-American Mohammed Sheikh, about a girl who mysteriously disappears during a village wedding. It’s one of the films I’m hoping will be a surprise entry this year. 

South Africa- “Laundry” South Africa’s biggest films are usually in English but this has been a very good year for local-language cinema. The frontrunner is Zulu-language “Laundry” (Toronto), a well-reviewed drama about a family of Black business owners, set during some of the worst years of apartheid. I’m pretty sure that will be the one, but it faces competition from “God’s Work” (also in Zulu), an experimental drama about the lives of homeless men in the city of Durban, and “The Trek”, an brand-new Afrikaans horror-drama set during a journey across the Kalahari Desert. Another Afrikaans option, “Variations on a Theme” (Rotterdam), looks intriguing; it’s about an elderly village widow who becomes the victim of a scam – but at just 65 minutes, I hear it’s somewhat slight. Berlin LGBT youth drama “Black Burns Fast” probably has too much English.

Sudan- “Cotton Queen” War-torn Sudan tried to find a film to send last year but the only film submitted to their committee was found to be ineligible (I don’t know why). Their two previous submissions ranged from very good (“You Will Die at 20”) to truly great (“Goodbye Julia”...it's a crime that AMPAS did not nominate this incredibly moving films.....). I think “Cotton Queen” (Venice 2025) will be number three. It’s about a headstrong young woman seeking to preserve her community’s way of life when faced with the pressures of globalization. It appears to have gotten a qualifying release in Germany and Egypt that would make it eligible. It also looks fantastic. Runner-up: Sundance documentary “Khartoum”. 

Tanzania- “Nisamahe Baba” Tanzania returned to the Oscars with much local fanfare in 2022 after a 20-year absence…then they promptly quit again. They had two local feature films at their international film festival in Zanzibar this year – “Nisamehe Baba” and English-language “Couple Goals”.....So my prediction is “Nisamahe Baba”, a drama about urban youth in an impoverished Swahili-speaking neighborhood….but they’ll surely skip again this year. 

Uganda- “Adui” Uganda seems to have an easy decision this year, with poaching drama “Adui” the frontrunner. Reportedly the first Ugandan film to be screened at the Cannes Film Market, it was also the most nominated African-language film at Uganda’s national film awards. It’s about a game ranger ostracized by his village after he is blamed for the death of a poacher’s son. “Small Gods”, about impoverished street performers in a tourist town, got a Best African Film nomination at the African Oscars and a Best East African Film award in Zanzibar, but the director is British so I think they’ll opt for “Adui”. 

Zambia- "Mwizukanji 2" Zambia has just sent out an open call for Oscar submissions. They've done this before but they've never sent a film....probably because many of their local films are in English. All the trailers I watched of big new releases - "The Light", "Mwizukanji 2" and ""- appear to be mostly in standard English but AI says they're largely in indigenous African languages. I'll pick sequel "Mwikukanji 2" about a woman trying to restart her life after serving time in prison because it has the best chance of qualifying based on language...But I expect they just won't enter. Presidential biopic "The Boy Who Became President" looks terrible, but likely won't premiere in time.