THE AMERICAS- Predictions for International Feature Film 2026-2027

And here are the expected candidates from the Americas.....El Salvador, the only country in the Latin America never to submit a film, has formed a selection committee for the first time. 

Last year, I predicted more than half of these correctly....I'm hoping to do even better this year and already have one right thanks to the Dominican Republic which became the first country to announce with cross-cultural love story "Melodrama"

ARGENTINA- “Glaxo” As always, Argentina has plenty to choose from. Two well-known (and previously submitted) directors have new films- Oscar winner Juan José Campanella’s geriatric dramedy “Strangers in the Park” and three-time Palme d’Or/Golden Bear nominee Lucretia Martel’s documentary “Our Land”. Add to that six new festival films- “Glaxo” (Toronto), “The Match” (Cannes), “Rosa and the Wind Phone” (Mar de Plata), “The River Train” (Berlin), “27 Nights” (San Sebastian) and “Virgin of the Quarry” (Sundance), plus two upcoming last-minute releases (which Argentina often picks) with big stars - Luis Machin’s “Barreda” and Ricardo Darin’s “Lo dejamos aca”,. "Dejamos" is theoretically releasing directly to Netflix...but they frequently will put a movie in theatres for a week to win awards. That’s probably Argentina Top Ten....

Apparently, they are announcing a four-film shortlist in September so four of those ten films are in, and six are out. I predict the lucky four will be "Glaxo", "Lo dejamos aca", "Our Land" and "Strangers in the Park". I'm putting my money on "Glaxo", the new noir mystery (Argentina's favorite genre) by Benjamin Naishtat. Naishtat was the favorite in 2023 (Argentina ultimately chose the messy "The Delinquents" over Naishtat's more mainstream "Puan") so he is definitely owed. Campanella is a beloved Oscar winner but "Strangers in the Park", about the friendship between two elderly men, isn't on the same level as "Secret in Their Eyes"....."Our Land", Martel's documentary about land encroachment against Indigenous people, is possible...though her films are an acquired taste. Argentina loves Ricardo Darin and his thriller "Lo dejamos aca" is absolutely a frontrunner but it's only 50-50 that the film will get into local cinemas. Nationalist football documentary "The Match" (which explores the country's World Cup heritage and anti-UK sentiment over the Falkland Islands) and the Argentine Carrie ("Virgin of the Quarry", which I predicted last year) are the most likely alternates for the final shortlist spot if "Lo dejamos aca" doesn't enter the race. 

Can Naishtat beat Darin? If it's on the shortlist, "Lo dejamos aca" is the most likely to overthrow "Glaxo". 

BOLIVIA- “La hija condor” Cinematically, Bolivia is one of my favorite countries in Latin America and I’ve had the privilege to meet some of their best filmmakers while living there. This year, they have two strong options- (1)- “La hija condor” (The Condor Daughter), about an indigenous Quechua girl trained to be a traditional midwife but who dreams of being a singer in the city, and (2)- “Cielo”, a gorgeous-looking “magical realism” film about a little Indigenous girl trying to help her deceased mother cross over to the heaven. “La hija condor” has a Bolivian director and is a mostly national production while “Cielo” is a UK production with a Spanish director. Both have great reviews but I think “Condor Daughter” will get this.

BRAZIL- “On Behalf of My Son” On August 18, Brazil announced that 15 films had registered to go to Hollywood. On September 9, they’re scheduled to announce six semi-finalists and one week later on September 16, they’ll announce the film that will represent Brazil. It’s a very obscure list….As far as I can tell, only seven have played at festivals (5 at Berlin, 1 at San Sebastian and one premiering soon in Toronto), and only one has reached 300 votes on IMDB ("Night Stage")…not a very high number. Only two directors – Marcelo Gomes (“Cinema, Aspirin and Vultures”) and Gabriel Martins (“Mars One”)- have represented Brazil before.

As I see it, here are the five tiers:

Strongest Contenders- 100 dias, Gugu’s World (Berlin K+ Winner 2026), On Behalf of My Son (Martins; Toronto 2026)

Likely to be on the Shortlist- Five Kinds of Fear, Malês, The Nature of Invisible Things (Berlin K+ 2025)

Possible for the Shortlist- Dolores (Gomes; San Sebastian), The Fabulous Time Machine (Berlin K+), Night Stage (Berlin Panorama 2025)

Unlikely- Narcisa’s Will, Our Secret (Berlin Perspectives), Papagaios

Likely Out of the Running- Around the Corner, The Condor Conspiracy, The King of the Internet

I’m feeling good about these six films making the shortlist….Let’s take a quick look:

1.      100 dias is an adventure film based on the true story of a man who traveled from Namibia to Brazil in a rowboat in 1984. It’s one of the most hotly anticipated Brazilian films of the year and is the live-action debut of Oscar-nominated animator Carlos Saldanha. It’s arranging a qualifying release, which usually indicates it’s a frontrunner and it’s the film I hear the most people mentioning as the likely Brazilian candidate....But nobody has seen it.....

2.      Five Kinds of Fear seems to have the best reviews among the non-festival entries, and I think they’ll reward it with a spot on the 6-film shortlist. It’s a gritty multi-strand drama where five storylines set in the inland city of Cuiabá (I've been there!) gradually begin to intersect.

3.      Gugu’s World won Best Film at the Berlin K+ competition this year for its gentle story of an effeminate 11-year old Black boy desperately trying to hide his grandmother’s Alzheimer’s to avoid being sent to live with his abusive father. Very strong reviews (#1 on IMDB), and the only film that’s actually won a major award.

4.      Malês, the “biggest” film on the list, is a 19^th century period drama about the slave trade and a slave revolt that upended Brazilian history in 1835. The director is a respected 87-year old actor who directed his first film in 1978 and waited nearly 50 years to make his second. It’s likely to make it for both sentimental reasons and because the film is “important”.

5.      The Nature of Invisible Things has by far the most festival play of any of the films and the best reviews on aggregator sites (3.9 on Letterboxd). It’s a tender coming-of-age drama about the friendship between two young girls.

6.      On Behalf of My Son, by the director of “Mars One”, is a drama due to premiere in the Platforms Section in Toronto (and thus hoping for an automatic entry to the Oscars), about an elderly woman visiting the families of the victims of a deadly accident (or was it??) caused by her dead son.

And the others? Director Marcelo Gomes is well-respected and “Dolores”, a drama about three generations of women, looks solid but reviews don’t look as enthusiastic as the predicted six. Queer erotic drama “Night Stage” got festival play and is the only film available in the United States, but may be “too gay” for the Oscars. And quiet 70-minute documentary “Fabulous Time Machine”, about girls growing up in fiercely macho rural Brazil, has good reviews but it probably too “small”. Any of them could make the shortlist though I doubt any would have a chance at winning the nomination.

Ultimately, I think this will go to one of the new films- “100 dias” or “On Behalf of My Son”…but as I write this entry, nobody has seen either. Last year, Brazil confirmed that picking the “big” film (“Secret Agent” instead of “Manas”) is a smart move.  That bodes well for “100 dias”. But for reasons I don’t understand I am feeling that “On Behalf of My Son” is the one. In 3^rd place- “Gugu", 3rd- “Nature” and 5^th- “Five Kinds of Fear”.

CANADA- “Cost of Heaven” Canada’s film used to basically be synonymous with Quebec. From 1971-2021, all but three Canadian submissions were made by French-Canadian filmmakers and were mostly in French. (The three exceptions were Indigenous filmmaker Zacharias Kunuk, Anglo-Canadian Attila Bertalan and Indian immigrant filmmaker Deepa Mehta). That changed in 2022. Since then, none of the four Canadian submissions have been primarily in French, and only Kurdish-Quebecois director Zayne Akyol was French-Canadian.

This year, Canada has one of the most interesting races of the year….Tons of great options and no frontrunner....I’m stumped! I see nine real possibilities- (1)- “Cost of Heaven” (Toronto), a thriller about a man in debt, (2)- “Follies” (Locarno), a sex farce about a married couple who decides to experiment, (3)- “Labrador- Autopsy of Silence” (Tribeca), a slow-moving, arthouse mystery set aboard a cargo ship, (4)- “Montréal, ma belle”, a drama about a Chinese immigrant (Joan Chen) who begins a lesbian affair late in life, (5)- “Nina Roza”, a Bulgarian-language film that won the Silver Bear for Best Screenplay in Berlin and is about a Bulgarian-Canadian returning home for the first time in decades,(6)- “Paradise” (Berlin), by an Oscar-nominated Short director, about the lives of two young men, one in Ghana and one in Canada; (7)- “Redemptions”, a thriller about a retired hit man forced to do one last job, (8)- “We’ll Find Happiness”, a drama directed by Lea Pool, already on VOD in the USA, about two gay Muslim immigrants trying to stave off deportation from Canada and (9)- “Wrong Husband” (Berlin/Toronto), a mystical Inuktikut-language fairy tale. And I only researched films from the French and Inuk communities!…It’s possible they have some diaspora option I don’t know about. 

I have no idea which of these great options they’ll choose…It’s one of the closest races in the world this year. As an experiment, I picked my Top Three…and then I asked AI to pick its Top Three. Only one film matched both lists- “Cost of Heaven”, the thriller about a 50-year old man deep in debt, taking desperate measures to survive. It also looks the most Oscar-friendly. So, that’s my prediction. But the Canadian Academy loves to highlight “multicultural Canada” so I predict the starpower of Joan Chen’s “Montreal ma belle” (in French and Chinese) will come second, the Berlin award of “Nina Roza” (in Bulgarian, French and English) will come third, with “Paradise” fourth, and LGBT asylum drama “We’ll Find Happiness” in fifth. But all of these would be great for Canada. 

CHILE- “The Red Hangar” (Hangar rojo) Chile announced earlier this month that eleven films were being considered to represent the country, including two set in the 1970s during the early days of the Pinochet era (“The Chilean” and “The Red Hangar”), two set inthe 1980s during the waning days of the Pinochet era (“After the Fog” and “Summer War”) and three set in the early 1990s during the early days of the post-Pinochet era (“Cuerpo Celeste”, “Left Unsaid” and “The Meltdown”). That's a lot of nostalgia! With many Chilean artists  horrified by the election of a right-wing Pinochet apologist as President this year (his opponent was a far-left Communist, leaving centrists without a candidate), this makes sense. Also on Chile's shortlist are two more dramas (“Mil pedazos” and “La perra”), a migration documentary (“Unwelcomed”), and an unconventional B&W punk superhero comedy (“Matapanki”). Ironically, five of these are also coming-of-agers about young girls....will they all cancel each other out? 

The two frontrunners appear to be the two 70s dramas- “The Chilean” (which premiered in Locarno this week) and “The Red Hangar” (Berlin Perspectives). I was all set to predict “The Chilean”, a biopic about a Chilean socialist/anarchist/ saboteur/emigre living in 1970s Italy, but reviews have been decidedly mixed. So I'm switching to the black-and-white “The Red Hangar”, about how good people are tempted into evil during the earliest days of Pinochet’s reign of terror. I think this will resonate with American audiences suffering under Trump….so it’s probably the better choice. Do any of the other films have a chance? Probably not…most of them have good reviews but none have great reviews. But since I usually give a Top 5, I think the strongest runner-ups are “The Meltdown” (Cannes UCR), possibly the best of the five girl-coming-of-age dramas, “Matapanki”, a low-budget and fiercely original comedy that actually has the most enthusiastic reviews of the bunch, and topical immigration documentary “Unwelcomed”. 

COLOMBIA- “Barrio Triste” Colombia has had a relatively quiet year but they have several promising entries in Toronto, and a lot will depend on how good the new films are and how fast they can get them into theatres. Up until now, Colombia has three main possibilities- “Barrio Triste” (Venice Orizzonti 25), about a gang of youths who steal a video camera and use it to document their lives, “Noviembre” (Toronto Discovery 25), a fictionized retelling about a group of hostages hiding during a real-life 1985 terrorist attack, and “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance 25), a queer punk retelling of Dante’s Inferno. (It looks like Gregg Araki and I have to see it....) But premiering in Toronto, we have “Where the River Begins”, about a woman who flees her Bogota ghetto for the countryside, and “Bovine with the Curved Horns”, a magical realism story about an Indigenous boy searching for his father. I doubt those two will be released in cinemas this year, but it is possible....But Colombia will probably pick one of the first three. “Barrio Triste” looks like the sort of gritty, urban film Colombia usually sends to the Oscars, while “Rains Over Babel” has the best overall reviews and has won awards with American audiences….(well...gay American audiences...)…It’s a confusing race. I’m predicting “Barrio Triste”, with “Babel” in a close 2nd place, and “Where the River Begins” in 3rd, but probably eligible next year. 

COSTA RICA- “If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night” Little Costa Rica has a tough race! Already released this year are “If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night” (Si no ardemos, como iluminar la noche), which won Best Costa Rican Film at their national film festival, “The Skin of the Water” (La Piel del Agua), their 2025 Goya submission, which got Costa Rica its third-ever Goya nomination, plus “Abril”, by Hernan Jimenez, who directed Costa Rica’s best-ever Oscar submission (the charming rom-com Entre nosotros). Of these three, sexual abuse drama “If We Don’t Burn” will be certain to be selected.  But wait! Costa Rica won Best Actress at Cannes Un Certain Regard for “Forever Your Maternal Animal” (Siempre soy tu animal materno), a female-driven family drama, and Paulina Garcia is headlining “Love is the Monster” (Amor es el monstruo), a buzzy thriller due to premiere in Toronto about a grandmother whose granddaughter is kidnapped while in her care. Those two do not have release dates yet. “If We Don’t Burn” seems most likely but watch out if Paulina can get her film into cinemas by September 30.

CUBA- “Baracoa” Cuba was a regular participant at the Oscars from 1987-1997 and again (more or less) from 2002-2020, netting one Oscar nomination for “Strawberry & Chocolate”.  Since the pandemic, they’ve only sent one film….and that film was assigned to Oscar voters and then mysteriously deleted from the Oscar Screening Room before it was downloaded. With political tensions with the U.S. running high and electricity running low, it’s unlikely Cuba will be back but I should note that their Havana Film Festival did take place in December and they had three new local features in competition - LGBT dramedy “Cherri”, tragicomedy “Neurotic Anonymous” (directed by actor Jorge Perugorria) and political spy thriller “Nora”.  However, their biggest contender of the year is clearly Italian co-production “Baracoa”, an eccentric road movie about a bitter young man and a drag queen doctor. The movie makes Cuba look absolutely gorgeous and it's probably the Latin American film I most want to see from this list. Spain-based Pavel Giroud, who has been picked to rep Cuba twice, has a new spy comedy that he made in Germany, about a plot to assassinate Fidel Castro…That will definitely not be sent.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Melodrama” Last week, the Dominican Republic became the first Latin American country to announce. I got it right!....Here's what I wrote prior to the announcement: 

The Dominican Republic made the dumbest decision in the world last year, sending “Pepe” – quite possibly the worst film I’ve ever seen- instead of “La Bachata de Bionico”, which I haven’t seen but which got great reviews, won Best Picture at the national La Silla awards, and simply couldn’t have been worse.  Last year was very strong for the Dominicans…This year is a bit weaker but but the island country still has plenty of options. The best-reviewed film of the year is probably “Melodrama”, about the romance between a wealthy Dominican widow and a Haitian migrant worker. It challenges racial and social constructs in the multicultural Dominican Republic. But last year, the DR showed they cared more about festival play than quality, which means they could pick “Don’t Come Out” (No salgas), a lesbian thriller that played at Berlin 14+, and which is a particularly traumatic coming-out story. Three well-known directors also have new films- Leticia Tonos has been picked four times (more than any other director) and she has a well-reviewed new music biopic – “Milly: Queen of Merengue”…though American audiences clearly won’t know or care who Milly is; Laura Amelia Guzmán and Israel Cárdenas (selected twice before) have comedy-drama “Interior Apartment Day”; and Angel Muniz, the first-ever director to represent the DR at the Oscars in the 1990s has “Man’s Game”, about a young baseball player who comes out as gay. Two dark horses: the DR has never picked a documentary but abortion doc “Scarlet Girls” is one of the best-reviewed Dominican films of the year (abortion is illegal in the DR in all cases, including rape). “Under the Same Sun” (Toronto), a 19^th century period drama, would be at the top of the list but it has a Spanish director. That’s seven interesting options! While I think “Melodrama” will win, “Under the Same Sun”, “Don’t Come Out” and “Milly: Queen of Merengue” (in that order) also have a chance to be selected.

ECUADOR- “The Ivy (La hiedra)” Ecuador has an interesting choice this year between creepy-looking arthouse favorite “The Ivy” (La hiedra), and the locally successfully jet-black comedy “Damned Old People” (Viejos Malditos). With awards at festivals like Venice (Horizons) and San Sebastian, it’s obvious that “The Ivy”, about the uncomfortable relationship between a 30-something woman and a local teen, is the frontrunner and will probably represent Ecuador. Director Ana Cristina Barragan's previous Oscar submission "Alba" was very good. Comedy “Viejos”, about a cranky old man, a cat and some nasty neighbors, was the top local hit of 2025…has reviews every bit as good as “Ivy”….But Ecuador’s submissions are usually dark and dramatic so my prediction is still “Ivy”. Unlikely: breast cancer documentary “Mama” .  In other news, Sebastian Cordero, Ecuador’s most famous international director has a majority-Colombian film coming out on Netflix but it looks like it won’t be ready by September 30.

EL SALVADOR- “Vértices” As menioned, El Salvador is the only Latin American country that has never entered the Oscar race. However, in August they announced that AMPAS had recognized a national selection committee and that they will announce their first-ever Oscar submission on September 18. However, it's unclear what they could send as their first-ever submission. The biggest film of the year about El Salvador - “Fireflies at El Mozote" - was a majority U.S. production (starring Mena Suvari! Remember her? Where's she been?) mostly in English.  Fun comedy “Wet Christmas” is the second-highest grossing Salvadoran film of all time…but it’s a slapstick comedy made by a local comedy troupe (many dressed in drag) about trying to sneak into the U.S. “Vértices”, about friends reuniting at a funeral after 30 years, looks far more serious but it’s only 60 minutes long. The same goes for “Cipactli: The Crocodile Goddess”, a documentary about the country’s Nahuatl indigenous heritage. Horror flick “Hospital” will premiere soon too. None of these look particularly promising but maybe they'll send "Vertices"? We'll soon see. 

GUATEMALA- “Cordillera de Fuego” Guatemala has submitted five films to the Oscars. Three of them were directed by Jayro Bustamente, who is working hard to develop Guatemala’s next generation of filmmakers. All four of Bustamente’s films were great although sadly his best one – LGBT drama “Temblores”- was the only one not sent to the Oscars. Anyway, it would be foolish to bet against Bustamente’s new film, “Cordillera de Fuego”, about a team of scientists trying to help an indigenous community evacuate a volcanic disaster. Hotly anticipated drama Nosotros, premiering in Toronto, is more likely to get a cinematic release next year…and its transgender themes may put off the same voters who decided not to submit Temblores. UPDATE: Guatemala announced that Cordillera de Fuego is one of two Oscar finalists, competing against Los imaginarios, said to be a confusing sci-fi effort.  Bustamente will get this easily.  

HAITI- “Marie Madeleine” Despite its political and economic chaos, Haiti has sent three films to the Oscars since 2017, which is pretty good considering how difficult it is to make films in the country. Gessica Geneus directed “Freda” and starred in “Kidnapping Inc.”. This year she did both in “Marie Madeleine”, which got a coveted slot in the Cannes Film Festival's Premiere sidebar this year. It’s about a prostitute in Jacmel (one of Haiti’s safer cities) who develops an unusual relationship with a local minister.  Haiti also has “The Tropic Sun and His Eyes” (Tribeca), which was made by a Haitian-American filmmaker in Cap-Haitien, another fairly safe city, about a man and a street kid searching Haiti for the man’s estranged father. Both of these films have wonderful reviews and would be great choices to represent Haiti’s beleaguered film industry…But Cannes trumps Tribeca. Expect “Marie Madeleine” to be on this year’s longlist and I can't wait to see it.

HONDURAS- “Eva” Honduras submitted films from 2017-2020. They have a very real possibility of returning this year with “Eva”, a drama about a trans woman who seeks to reconnect with her estranged son in order to get him to take care of the newborn daughter he has abandoned. Having been gone for five years, they'd need to get AMPAS to recognize a new committee. 

MEXICO- “On the Road” (En el camino) Mexico announced a month ago that 17 films had registered (15 fiction features and two documentaries) for the chance to represent Mexico at the Oscars. Four of them are directed by relatively big names- Jonas Cuaron, Gael Garcia Bernal, Diego Luna and Chile’s Maite Alberdi. 16 of these films have already been released so let’s look at those first.

Tier One:          Campeon Gabacho (Cuaron), Flies, On the Road, Sad Girlz

Tier Two:           Ashes (Luna), The Devil Smokes, Garden We Dreamed, The Reserve

Tier Three:       A Child of My Own (Alberdi), La eterna adolescente, Mutaciones, Oca

Tier Four:          Crocodiles, Don’t Leave the Kids Alone, Flamingos, Sobre las olas

So let’s look at Mexico’s top tier….

• Boxing drama “Campeon Gabacho” premiered at SXSW and has a recognizable cast of U.S. Latino and Mexican actors (including Ruben Blades, Cheech Marin and Rosario Dawson) acting opposite the star of “I’m No Longer Here”. More importantly, it’s produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron (the director’s papa). Reviews have been good (some say it’s overly sentimental…but is that bad when you’re trying to get an Oscar?) and it adds a heavy dose of magical realism to the traditional gritty world of boxing movies. 
• The low-profile “Sad Girlz”  has some of the best reviews of the group - it won the 14+ category at Berlinale this year, and it follows the lives of two teen swimmers and best friends in the aftermath of a sexual assault. Despite the great reviews, it's much more low-profile than the other three contenders so I'd say it's a long shot. 
• Gay trucker-meets-hustler drama “On the Road” got 13 Ariel nominations (including the Big 3) and a big win at Venice 2025 (Best Film, Orizzonti). It’s considered to be the favorite and I agree…It’s the one I hope goes to the Oscars. 
• Lastly, we have “Flies” (Berlin Main Competition, 2026), a dramedy about a solitary middle-aged woman who develops a friendship with her new lodger and his 9-year old son. Reviews are good but will Mexico want to pick two droll B+W comedy-dramas about grouchy old Mexican women living alone two years in a row? 

So, if the competition were held today, “On the Road” would probably get this, followed by  American-audience-friendly “Campeon Gabacho”, “Sad Girlz” and “Flies”, in that order. But wait! The one unreleased film is Gael Garcia Bernal’s hotly anticipated “Hombre el agua”, which will premiere in Venice and then Toronto, traditionally a great platform for Oscar hopefuls. We won’t know if the film is great or not until September but it’s a twisty psychological comedy-drama that looks very, very promising. It’s probably between “Hombre el agua” and “En el camino” but I’m sticking with “Camino” for now.

NICARAGUA- Nothing. Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2010 and I don’t think they’ve produced a national feature film since 2022. They definitely won’t submit this year, although they do have an artistic documentary called “My Skin and I” in post-production, which has Nicaraguan and American co-directors.

PANAMA- “Tropical Paradise” (Paraiso tropical)”  Panama has had a relatively weak year but they will likely submit “Paraiso tropical”, a documentary that won the Audience Award at IFF Panama. Director Abner Benaim has repped Panama three times and he was Oscar shortlisted for “Plaza Catedral”. His latest documentary examines a 1994 terrorist bombing, which investigators believe was carried out by Hezbollah, despite being thousands of miles away from the Middle East conflict. They don’t have many other serious contenders even though they did have seven local features at IFF Panama this year (3 fiction, 3 documentary and 1 hybrid). I suppose the runner-up could be “Fast Cash”, a ‘100% local’ action-thriller.  

PARAGUAY- “Narciso” Few countries have an easier decision this year than Paraguay. “Narciso” won the FIPRESCI Prize in Berlin this year for period thriller “Narciso”, which is a gorgeously filmed drama set amidst Paraguay’s Stroessner dictatorship in the 1950s. Reviews are very good and director Marcelo Martinessi previously directed “The Heiresses”, which was probably the closest Paraguay has come to the Oscar shortlist. It got a domestic release in April and, honestly, Paraguay doesn’t have any other strong options. It’s in and I can't wait to see it! 

PERU- “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables) Peru always has the most confusing race in Latin America because the country has odd film distribution problems….More so than any other country, local films tend to come out in cinemas 1-2 years after appearing on the film festival circuit. For example, 18^th century indigenous revolution drama “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables) premiered at the Lima Film Festival in 2024....but it is eligible this year. I'd love to know why. 

In recent years, the Peruvian Academy has shown a strong preference for the country’s small Indigenous-language cinema. In the past eight years, five submissions were dominated by Indigenous casts and stories, and a sixth film ("Song Without a Name") had an Indigenous lead. That's why “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables), written by filmmaker Óscar Catacora right before his untimely death at age 34, is my pick. Three other films I considered predicting (“1982”, “Anatomy of Horses” and “The Girls' Garden”) are all scheduled to be released in October and November 2026, which means they’ll be eligible next year…though Peru did do a qualifying release for the charming “Erection of Toribio Bardelli” in 2023. “1982”, about an Indigenous family forced to leave their home, is the most likely candidate to try this approach. Other options: “Heart of the Wolf” (Malaga), about a child who is kidnapped and forced to join the Shining Path terrorist group, is the latest from 77-year old senior director Francisco José Lombardi, who made six of the eight Peruvian films submitted to the Oscars between 1983 and 1999 (but Peru hasn't sent any of the seven films he has made since then); Los inocentes (San Sebastian) is about toxic masculinity and gangs; and well-reviewed documentaries Runa Simi (a quixotic quest to dub the Lion King musical into Quechua) and Uyariy (following the aftermath of Indigenous protests violently quashed by the government) have great reviews....but Peru has never selected a documentary. A lot depends on which of these films get screened and which ones submit themselves for consideration. “The Last Inca” feels like the safest bet but I’m not at all confident I got this one right.

PUERTO RICO- “Summer of Three” AMPAS invited Puerto Rico to send films to the Oscars from 1986-2010, but they were rudely and unfairly disinvited, supposedly because they are a U.S. territory. (Greenland and Hong Kong continue to be invited). Puerto Rico has a distinct, independent and accomplished local film industry, as evidenced by their 1990 Oscar nomination and 2024 Goya nomination. I assume AMPAS will one day correct their mistake and if it’s this year, the Puerto Ricans will be debating between two well-reviewed films from Tribeca - “Esta isla” and ”Summer of Three”, two very different movies about youth on a road trip. The higher-profile “Esta Isla” is about a mismatched teen couple fleeing a local crime lord while “Summer of Three” is a love triangle about a teen who joins an unconventional couple on a motorcycle trip following his grandfather’s funeral. These both have great reviews but I think “Summer of Three”, which will open the Puerto Rico Film Festival this month, would be the one picked if AMPAS has a change of heart.

SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Suriname, a Dutch-speaking country on South America's Caribbean coast, sent a single fiction film ("Wiren") in 2020. They’re unlikely to return, but they did have an interesting documentary last year called “Monikondee” that premiered in Suriname in November 2025. It’s about the riverboats that travel around Suriname’s wild jungle interior, transporting cargo to remote indigenous and Afro-communities. Sounds very interesting!

URUGUAY- “Loose End” Uruguay will probably be deciding between Daniel Hendler’s comedy caper “A Loose End” (Un cabo suelto) and Lucia Garibaldi’s quirky quasi-sci-fi-drama“Bright Future” (Un future brillante). Both films have very good reviews and would make very good choices. Hendler is a popular Uruguayan actor who works mostly in Argentina. Garibaldi won Best Director in Sundance for “Los tiburones” but wasn’t sent to the Oscars (the cute but forgettable “The Moneychanger” went instead). “Loose End” played at a major festival (Venice 25) and Hendler is a bigger name...plus the Uruguayan Academy usually selects comedies.....so I’m predicting “A Loose End”, a comedy about an Argentinian on the run who flees to Uruguay. There, he starts a new life and meets a bunch of warm, local Uruguayan characters. “Bright Future” is an odd drama about a woman who gets a job “up north” - a mysterious place from which nobody returns. Those are the two frontrunners but Gustavo Hernandez’s latest haunted house horror flick “The Whisper” and theatre drama “Fragile Like Glass” could appear if there is a shortlist.

VENEZUELA- "Death Has No Master" Unlike Cuba, Venezuela has continued to submit films to the Oscars despite economic collapse and tensions with the United States. This year, they have two films representing the country at festivals around the world. Asia Argento stars in thriller "Death Has No Master", which got great notices at Cannes. It's the story of an heiress who travels from Europe to Venezuela to inherit the family plantation, but gets a hostile (violent?) reaction from those living on the land. Looks Gothic and creepy and I'm excited to watch my screener next week. Edgar Ramirez co-stars in "It Would Be Night in Caracas" (Venice 2025), a political thriller about a woman trying to survive political turmoil and armed militias. Is the film too political? Is the committee political? (The Venezuelan committee usually chooses apolitical films but last year they picked a chavista one). "Death Has No Master" has better reviews and is less political so that's my guess. Dark horse: documentary "The Extraordinary Journey of Dragon" was the Venezuelan submission to both the Spanish Goyas and the Argentinian AMPAS Awards last year. 

ASIA-PACIFIC PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film 2027

And here are the 29 candidates from the Asia-Pacific region....Last year, a record 22 of these countries sent films, though AMPAS mysteriously disqualified 5- Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan and Thailand.  

 

Afghanistan- “No Good Men” Afghanistan, which is now sadly back under barbaric Taliban rule, hasn’t sent a film since 2019. I hope they return one day, possibly with a selection committee “in exile”, since their filmmakers continue to work and make excellent films while living abroad. This year, it would be wonderful to have “No Good Men”, a dramedy filmed in Germany about a modern careerwoman working at a local TV station, in the race. Described as a (sort of) Afghan rom-com, it’s directed by Shahrbanoo Sadat, who is one of the country’s leading female filmmakers.

Australia- “First Light” Obviously most Australian movies are made in English but they’ve participated in this Oscar category more or less regularly since 2006. Although you’d expect they’d mostly send films in native Aboriginal languages, they haven’t sent one since “Charlie’s Country” in 2014. Since then, Australia has sent films made by Aussie directors in some of the world’s most far-flung places- Afghanistan (twice), Bhutan, Italy, Macedonia, Mongolia, Thailand, Vanuatu, as well as the Persian community in Melbourne. This year, they could add Palestine or the Philippines to that list, by sending either Gaza aid worker documentary “Until the Sky Falls Quiet” or “First Light”, a moral dilemma drama (I love these!) about a Filipino nun who witnesses a fatal accident.  They could also return to Mongolia for the second year in a row with “Iron Winter”, a documentary about efforts to save a herd of horses during a particularly brutal Mongolian winter. Any of these are possible, but I have a hunch the fiction feature will beat out the documentaries. Dark horse: “Ripples in the Mist”, about two Hong Kong women living in Australia by Clara Law, who made Australia’s first-ever Oscar submission thirty years ago.

Bangladesh- “Master” Bangladesh has had a good film year and they usually send something interesting to promote their national cinema. I see a total of seven option....In alphabetical order: (1)- “Blind Girl & an Elephant” (Shanghai), about three girls trying to escape their superstitious village, (2)- “Bonolota Express”, a box-office smash adventure-comedy with very good reviews, (3)- “Delupi” (Rotterdam), a small environmental drama about rural flooding, (4)- “Master” (Rotterdam), a political thriller about an honest man who becomes tainted by local politics, (5)- “Roid” (Rotterdam again), about a rural man dealing with a mentally ill wife, (6)- “Sand City” (Karlovy Vary/Busan), about two strangers who collect sand (?), and (7)- “The University of Chankrapul”, a political satire featuring cutthroat university politics. Variety called “Master” a  ‘gripping drama’ and Deadline called it the first Bangladeshi film to win a major award at a European festival. I think the Bangladeshi Academy is brave enough to send something a bit political….It’s definitely their best option if it gets a cinematic release somewhere and it's the one I hope to see representing Bangladesh at the Oscars. “Roid”, whose director has been picked before for “Hawa”, will likely be runner-up with mega-hit “Bonolota” in third. I can confirm those have screened at cinemas. 

Bhutan- “The Debt Call” “Dobchu”, the hit horror film that dominated Bhutan’s 2026 Film Awards was released in last year’s cycle so it's not eligible. Bhutan doesn’t usually submit to the Oscars unless they have a film on the international film festival circuit...but if they do send a film this year, it’s like to be “Pindarikaa” (which looks pretty gorgeous), which looks like some sort of swords-and-sorcery action movie, or “The Debt Call”, a  gritty drama about a rape victim who abandons her baby. “Debt Call” got screened in Australia which means it definitely has the subtitles necessary to be submitted, so that’s my prediction.

Cambodia- “Becoming Human” Cambodia didn’t have any festival films last year so they sent a flawed but fun and very creepy horror movie before it was disqualified for unknown reasons. This year, they’ll probably choose between two festival films- Rithy Panh’s ethno-environmental documentary “We Are the Fruits of the Forest” (Berlin/Tokyo) and supernatural drama “Becoming Human” (Busan/Shanghai). They usually pick the Oscar-nominated Panh but I have a hunch that the more visible “Becoming Human”, about a female ghost who is faced with the difficult choice of earthly haunting or rebirth, will get this. I have family dramas “The Old Man” and “Me & My Brother” as unlikely runner-ups.

China- “I Know Who You Are” The Chinese Academy changed tactics last year - instead of sending a terrible film, they sent a good one. Sure “Dead to Rights” was a nationalist war film, but it looked great, was well-made and acted and, most importantly, filmed with an adult audience in mind. This was a shift from terrible big-budget action sequels “Wandering Earth 2” and “Wolf Warrior 2” or cute but inappropriate Oscar entries like kiddie anime “Ne Zha”.  China is notoriously difficult to predict but I see the two frontrunners as expensive martial arts period piece “Blades of the Guardians” and regime drama “I Know Who You Are”, which is directed by Feng Xiaogang (previously picked for “Aftershock” and “Back to 1942”) which covers 40 years of Chinese history. “I Know Who You Are” looks stronger on paper, although it was reportedly a flop at the box-office. “Blades of the Guardians” looks like the sort of big-budget action movie China has generally picked in recent years (and it’s already been released on Amazon, which I think helps) but although it was made in China, in Mandarin Chinese, by a Mainland film studio, it’s talent is mainly from Hong Kong…so HK may claim it instead. Two other possibilities from this land of one billion people- Teochew melodrama “Dear You” (aka “A Letter to Grandma”), a tearjerker with no stars that has unexpectedly become China’s top box-office hit of the year, though I’m not sure China will select a film in a regional Chinese dialect; and abstract sci-fi drama “Resurrection” (Cannes 2025) has gotten mostly great reviews…. but it’s much more arthouse than we’ve seen from China in years. Three other potential frontrunners have been sidelined – 17^th century period epic “The Belief” was supposed to be China’s summer blockbuster but it was mysteriously pulled from cinemas before its premiere; “Living the Land” won Best Director in Berlin 2025, and was approved by the Chinese censors…but it has been the subject of a nationalist backlash and hasn’t actually made it to cinemas; and “Scare Out”, a thriller by the usually reliable Oscar nominee Zhang Yimou, has received absolutely poisonous reviews from critics. I’m probably way off….but I’m predicting “I Know Who You Are” for now.

Fiji- “Adi” Fiji sent a movie once, way back in 2005 but they don’t have a developed national film industry and rarely make films. However, there has been buzz about the first entirely Fijian-language film, “Adi”, about a woman called on to perform the traditional duties of a male chief. Would make a great second entry. 

Hong Kong- “Blades of the Guardians” So, the Hong Kong Academy usually sends either action movies or moody melodramas. If they go “action” this year, then I was sure “The Furious” would be their pick...until it was pointed out to me that it contains too much English to qualify. Though it's one of their best-reviewed and most exciting action movies in years, that's not allowed. So I'm switching my prediction to big-budget action movie “Blades of the Guardians”, set in the 7th century reputed to cost over $100 million though that could also be claimed by CHINA. Director Yuen Woo-ping, now 80, is a Hong Kong and Hollywood institution who started out with Jackie Chan and ended up working on everything from "The Matrix" to "Kung Fu Hustle". This would be a nice way to honor him. The critically maligned crime drama “Sons of the Neon Night” is supposed to be a very beautifully made film and it won most of the tech awards at this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards where it also got a Best Picture nomination…so someone must like it?? If they want “melodrama”, then the frontrunners are “Afterpiece” (Shanghai), which looks like a Cantonese “Sentimental Value”; and “Cyclone”, a transgender tale that closed the HK Film Festival. There’s also “Ciao UFO”, a drama that swept this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards (Film, Director and Screenplay), plus quirky reincarnation anime “Another World”, showing off Chinese animation in a genre traditionally dominated by Japan. Based on the Hong Kong Academy’s preferences, I think the popular “Blades of the Guardians” will be picked, though growing buzz for “Afterpiece”, which is in Hong Kong's preferred Cantonese dialect (language) of Chinese...could elevate that film to the top. I have “Another World”, which arguably has the best reviews, in third and "Cyclone" in fourth.

India- TBD This will take too long. "Homebound" was shortlisted last year which means the stubborn Indian selection committee may have learned that (1)- films from major festivals do well and (2)- it helps to have a strong U.S. backer (like Martin Scorsese) helps. However, India didn't have many films at major festivals this year (certainly none with the gravitas of "Homebound") and I don't know of any Indian films with a Hollywood backer. "Ramayana" looks promising...but it won't premiere until November. They've picked Hindi-language "Bollywood" predictions two years in a row, so regional films may have the edge. I'll do this one later. 

Indonesia- “Four Seasons in Java”  Indonesia is difficult to predict because the Indonesian Academy chooses from a very diverse range of films….In the past eight years they’ve sent a gory horror film, a commercial Netflix comedy, a popular sci-fi romance based on a web-series, a political thriller, a Tarantino-esque feminist thriller, an LGBT drama that upset Islamists, and two arthouse dramas. Six out of eight were chosen from the major international film festivals, but two had virtually no play at all. The national Citra Awards are the best precursor….four of these submissions won Best Picture while the other four were nominated (though most of this year’s contenders will be eligible for this year’s awards so it doesn't help at all). As the world’s fourth-largest country, Indonesia has plenty of films to choose from, but I see the five leading candidates (in alphabetical order) as (1)- “Four Seasons in Java” (Toronto 2026), (2)- “Ghost in the Cell” (Berlin Forum 2026), (3)- “Levitating” (Sundance), (4)- “Nobody Loves Kay”, and (5)- “On Your Lap”  (Busan), which also won Best Picture at the 2025 Citra Awards. Joko Anwar (“Ghost in the Cell”) and Kamila Andrini (“Four Seasons in Java”) are both seeking to be picked a second time - something only two Indonesian directors have achieved before. I’m putting my money on Kamila and “Four Seasons”, which is about a sexual assault survivor who faces an angry community after being released from prison for killing her attacker. While nobody has seen it yet, Andrini impressed with “Yuni” and the well-timed late release in Toronto could provide the buzz to win. However, it is scheduled to be released in October so it would need a qualifying run. If not "Seasons", it seems likely Indonesia will pick Citra Award winner “On Your Lap”, a social drama about the “hostess” industry, or maybe Anwar’s crazy “Ghost in the Cell”, a supernatural-prison-drama-action-musical-horror-comedy (?!?!!), about a violent prison facing off against a ghost. I have “Levitating” in 4^th and “Kay” in 5^th. Dark horses include husband-and-wife thriller “Dopamine” (which I really want to see), and a local remake of Iranian Oscar nominee “Children of Heaven”.

Japan- “All of a Sudden” Japan loves Cannes. In the past eight years, they got six of their submissions from Cannes (the exceptions were anime “Weathering with You” and thriller “Cloud”, both of which were surprises and poor choices). This year, the preference for Cannes will help five films- Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden”,  Oscar nominee Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Sheep in the Box” and Koji Fukada’s “Nagi Notes” (all of which were in the Main Competition”), plus Kiyoshi Kurosawa’s “The Samurai and the Prisoner” and the far less high-profile “All the Lovers in the Night”, starring Tadanobu Asano. The Hamaguchi film definitely has the best reviews but it’s mostly in French...and I’m not sure how the Japanese will feel about that….I think it will be okay because it's not like "Sacred Fig" or "Mustang"...the film does have three lead Japanese actors....so I expect it’s okay. Kurosawa is #2 for his samurai "Knives Out"…but he was picked just two years ago and the Japanese Academy rarely repeats directors so soon. But Japan makes odd choices sometimes (look at “Cloud”) and there are a lot of other choices. Puzzle mystery “Bakudan”, referred to as the Japanese “Seven”, was a huge hit; teen runaway drama “Burn” (Sundance) also sold out cinemas; Hirokazu Koreeda's “Look Back”, about two mismatched guys brought together by a love of manga will premiere in Venice and will be Koreeda’s second contender of the year; and “Tokyo Taxi” is a sweet little drama about an elderly woman and a taxi driver, which could be the final film of 94-year old Yoji Yamada, who has made 91 feature films and represented Japan at the Oscars five times (including the Oscar-nominated “Twilight Samurai”). One possible final candidate is “Godzilla Minus Zero”. I was ready to predict “Godzilla” because Takashi Yamazaki is a respected director who has never been picked for the Oscars (he should have been picked for “Always: Sunset on Third Street”, which was somehow snubbed by the sweet but forgettable “Hula Girls”) even though he’s an Oscar winner for “Godzilla Minus Zero”. The problem is that it’s not expected to be released until November and a blockbuster like this isn’t the sort of film that you can arrange a 7-day secret release for….This is hard. I think the finalists will be “All of a Sudden”, “Look Back” and maybe “Godzilla”...with “Burn” if they’re looking to reward somebody new. I hated “Drive My Car” so it pains me to say this, but I’m predicting Hamaguchi, followed by Koreeda's "Look Back". 

Kazakhstan- “Turgaud” Last year, Kazakhstan was disqualified because of a conflict-of-interest issue, because the selection committee chose horror film “Cadet” even though cinematographer Yerkinbek Ptyraliyev was part of the committee. I’m actually very unsure of what Kazakhstan will send this year. Their best option would appear to be “Turgaud”, a violent Tarantino-esque “neo-western” about mafia loyalty, directed by Adilkhan Yerzhanov. But the Kazakh Academy has an odd relationship with Yerzhanov…It’s true that he was picked in 2021 and 2025 (he directed “Cadet”) but he submitted a very well-reviewed film for consideration in 2023 and Kazakhstan decided to send nothing rather than send it to the Oscars. Yerzhanov is incredibly prolific and makes 1-2 movies each year. If they don’t want to pick him again so soon, they could go with doping/swimming drama “Becoming” (Locarno), counterterrorism biopic “Capitan Baitasov”, mother-daughter drama “Malika” (Busan) or dark social media parable “Sicko”….Finally, they could arrange a qualifying release for big Communist-era epic “The Nomad’s Legacy”, directed by Maria Kunarova (“The Crying Steppe”) and which is scheduled for a domestic release in November.  It’s one of the more wide-open races in Asia this year…For now, I’ll predict “Turgaud” (which is probably what they should send), with “Sicko” (which also looks great) and “Malika” as the most likely runner-ups.

Korea- “Possible Love” South Korea has had a relatively quiet year which makes it all the more strange that they asked for submissions so incredibly early (June 19), making it difficult for films scheduled for a fall release to qualify. The proof? In 2023, there were 14 films submitted, in 2024, 15 and in 2025, 19. This year, there were just six. Three of them are sci-fi/horror films (“Colony”, “Hope” and “Salmokji”) and this committee generally dislikes that. The others include a noir crime drama (“Project Y”), an obscure documentary (“Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema”) and one drama (“Possible Love”). “Possible Love” is directed by Lee Chang-dong, an aging auteur director, former Minister of Culture, three-time Palme d’Or nominee, Venice Silver Lion winner and the first-ever Korean director to make the Oscar shortlist (for “Burning”). “Possible Love” and has been announced for the Main Line-up at Venice. In such an exceptionally weak year, "Possible Loves" will clearly be selected. For the record, it’s a 3-hour drama about the intersecting lives of four strangers. So, in order….

1.      1. Possible Love (Venice, Main Competition)....which could actually go to the Oscars automatically if it wins Venice, giving a second spot to....

      2. Hope (Cannes Main Competition), a genre-bending monster movie featuring cameos by Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander (Letterboxd: 3.3)

M  3. Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema, an obscure (vanity?) documentary featuring the 85-year old founder of the Busan Film Festival visiting cinemas, and meeting with some very high-profile international directors (including Lee Chang-dong!) (Letterboxd: 3.3)

3.     4. Colony (Cannes, Midnight Screening), high-concept zombie/mutant virus movie (Letterboxd: 3.3)

5.    5. Project Y (Toronto/Busan) A female noir heist thriller that nobody seems to love (Letterboxd: 2.9)

6.     6. Salmokji, a horror movie with middling reviews (Letterboxd: 2.7)

Kyrgyzstan- “Kurak” In my opinion, the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan may be the best film-making country that has never been nominated. Though they have few resources or funds for PR, they submit solid films year after year. This year, they have no less than four films at major international film festivals- “Backstage Madness” (Tallinn Black Nights), “Kurak” (Busan), “Mergen” (Rotterdam) and “Skylark” (Shanghai), plus the sequel to the record-breaking box-office hit “Paradise at Mother’s Feet 2” which was sent to the Oscars in 2024. This is probably between (1)- “Kurak”, a drama about the Kyrgyz women’s rights movement, fighting against long-standing gender-based violence and patriarchy, and (2) “Paradise 2”, a religiously themed Islamic drama sequel that would probably be a poor choice. “Skylark”, which premiered a few weeks ago and which would be the first film directed by a Kyrgyz woman to be submitted, is a potential dark horse. It’s a “coming-of-age village drama”…and the Kyrgyz have sent a lot of these over the years!

Laos- “Kong Koi” (aka "Wrecked") Laos sent a single horror film to the Oscars in 2017. I know of two domestic releases this year, neither of which seems likely to convinced them to come back. Horror film “Kong Koi” is about a female ghost from Thai/Lao mythology that haunts the jungle on one leg, while “Philo: For Love” seems to be some sort of kidnapping thriller. I vote for “Kong Koi”.

Malaysia- “Khadam” Malaysia began submitting regularly to the Oscars in 2019. This year, they have a number of options and no obvious frontrunner. Malaysia used to unofficially only consider films in Malay, the country’s official language, even though the country’s most acclaimed films usually came from the Chinese minority. That has now changed. I see the three frontrunners (in alphabetical order) as “Badak” (Netflix), “Fox King” (Toronto/Busan 2025) and “Khadam”. Father-daughter drama “Badak” sounds a bit like a cross between “Coda” and “Gully Boy”, as a young female rapper seeks to start a music career over the objections of her working-class (and deaf!) father. The director, a Singaporean Malay, previously represented Singapore for “La Luna”.  Domestically, reviews have been good and most of Malaysia’s recent selections had Netflix backing so this is a strong possibility. “Fox King”, a coming-of-age drama about two twin brothers more or less abandoned by their father after his re-marriage, has festival cred from Toronto and Busan. But the Southeast Asians love their scary movies (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand have all sent full-on horror films to the Oscars) and “Khadam” is the best-reviewed one of the year. It's a slow-burn horror film about a woman facing off against a supernatural entity that is targeting her young daughter. “Macai” (Rotterdam), a crime-thriller about the country’s Tamil Indian community, is a potential dark horse, as is “Mother Bhumi” (starring Fan Bingbing!), although director Keat Aun Chong was selected last year. I think “Khadam” is going to Hollywood.

Mongolia- “Colors of White Rock” Like Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia almost always sends fantastic films to the Oscars year after year without any recognition. I am always very excited to see their entry…I’ve seen all of them and they haven’t sent a bad one yet…The strongest (“The Steed”) deserved an Oscar nomination and even the weakest (“Veins of the World”) was just fine. This year, Mongolia seems to have three possibilities from major festivals –  dramas “The Muralist” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Unopened Letter” (Moscow) and documentary “Colors of White Rock” (Tribeca) - plus a drama called “Hello Mother”.  The director of “The Muralist” was picked last year for the wonderful original “Silent City Driver” (which won Tallinn 2024) so I think they’ll spread the wealth and give this to “Colors of White Rock”, a documentary about the life of a female long-haul truck driver – one of the few in macho Mongolia, with “The Muralist” as the runner-up. But it could logically be any of these four. 

Nepal- “Elephants in the Fog” Every year, there is one country whose submission process is a shit show. Last year was Nepal, where jealous filmmakers trashed the selection of women’s football drama “Anjila” after a brief selection process that coincided with domestic unrest. With a Cannes Un Certain Regard Jury Prize for transgender tale “Elephants in the Fog”, hopefully this year will be easier for Nepal. The film is getting a domestic release in September (possibly to coincide with the Oscar deadline?) and has very good reviews, so this should be an easy win for them. If they do choose to send a more “commercial” social drama (as they often do), expect child marriage drama “Gauthali” or family drama “Aa Bata Aama” to be in the running.

New Zealand- “Crocodile” New Zealand was a regular participant in this category from 2011-2018, sending films mostly in Pacific languages (Maori and Samoan) but also Persian and Chinese. Since then, they’ve only sent one film, despite a number of very good options…so it seems they don’t see this category as a priority anymore, unlike neighboring Australia. Two previously submitted directors have new films this year who could potentially get the Kiwis to fill out the paperwork- Pietra Brettkelly’s crazy cell phone documentary “Crocodile” (in Nigerian Pidgin) and Tearepa Kahi’s war docudrama “Sgt. Haane” (in Maori)…but both of those could be more than 50% in English. I’m not sure. PNG environmental documentary “Sukundimi Walks Before Me” would be a safer choice. But since Brettkelly has been picked twice and got screened at Berlinale, that’s my prediction.

Pakistan- “Ghost School” While their neighbors in India and Nepal squabble over their Oscar choices, Pakistan’s committee consistently sends solid entries whenever they can....in a delightfully eclectic mix of genres, ranging from social dramas and comedies, to animation and horror. “Joyland” deserved to be nominated; “Circus of Life” probably deserved to win. They didn’t really have anything last year and so they skipped, but I think they will be back this year with one of their two films on the festival circuit, “Lali” (Berlin Panorama) or “Ghost School” (Toronto/Berlin 14+).  Family drama “Lali”, about a newly married woman whose previous three fiancees have died, is by the director of “Circus of Life”, so I have very high hopes. But “Ghost School”, a mystery about a young girl trying to solve the mystery of why her local school was suddenly closed, has slightly better reviews. Dark horse: neither of the two frontrunners has had a cinematic release yet (apparently "Ghost School" was banned in Sindh but cleared censors in Punjab, but hasn't screened in either state) so they could consider the dark action-comedy “Aag Lagay Basti Mein”…They picked a similar film in 2019.

Papua New Guinea- “Sereva: A Papuan Tale” Papua New Guinea tried to make its Oscar debut last year but well-meaning ethnic road movie “Papa Buka” was mysteriously disqualified for unknown reasons. While the film was clearly a debut effort, it was a great showcase for emerging Pacific cinema. I doubt they’ll return this year, but they did make an open call for submissions again. If they do, it could be “Sereva: A Papuan Tale”, a feature documentary made by an Italian director about a rural boy’s quest to build a canoe.

Philippines- "Filipiñana" The Philippines has one of the most confusing races of the year though I finally settled on “Filipiñana”, just because it really has played almost everywhere since its premiere earlier this year in both Sundance (where it won a Special Jury Award) and Berlin and because it got a U.S. distributor (Kino Lorber) that would theoretically help the cash-strapped country promote its film. It’s a dark comedy and class satire set at an elite golf club that looks like it will resonate with both American and international audiences. It seems like it would be a good choice. Their other top candidate is “Silenced Nights”, a drama about the witness to an extrajudicial killing….a seriously hot topic in the Philippines. It is hoping to go to the Oscars automatically via the Toronto Platform Prize…so expect the Philippines to make its announcement late, after Toronto. I have a major hunch it will be one of these two films, but there are lots of other options from this nation of over 100 million. Rural land rights documentary “Bloom Where You Planted “ won Best Picture at last year’s Cinemalaya festival for indie cinema, and the Philippines have picked many of their past submissions from there; Jun Lana’s “Call Me Mother” is a dramedy about a gay man preparing to adopt the stepson he raised, but whose life turns upside down when his estranged ex decided she wants her biological child back; the animated “58^th” re-enacts the events following a 2009 massacre that shook the country, and is the latest from the director of “The Missing”, Lav Diaz’s latest heavy drama “Let Us Through, Dear Ancestors” is set to premiere in Venice (though I don’t think he’ll be picked twice in a row)….”The Loved One”, about two ex-lovers who reunite, was a major critical and box-office hit; ”Manila’s Finest”, a period drama following a 1970s murder investigation got good reviews at Metro Manila; “Quezon” is a dull-looking political biopic that has gotten lots of nominations at local awards show and finally “Raging” (Berlin) is jungle drama about a local boy investigating a plane crash.

Singapore- “We Are All Strangers” 32-year old Singaporean wunderkind Anthony Chen has been picked three times before, including for the first two films in his “Growing Up” trilogy. The third film – “We Are All Strangers” – premiered in the Main Competition at Berlin and is sure to represent the city-state.  It’s a family melodrama with very strong reviews…arguably his best since “Ilo Ilo”. Girl gang drama “Amoeba” (Toronto) also has very good reviews but probably doesn’t stand a chance against Chen. Unknown: odd sci-fi wuxia action film “The House on the Moon” is set to premiere in the Main Competition at Locarno, making two Class-A festivals for tiny Singapore.

Sri Lanka- “Riverstone” Sri Lanka has a fairly developed film industry but they haven’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2009. If they return, I’ll make the same prediction I did last year and suggest “Riverstone”, a “moral dilemma” drama about three Sri Lankan police transporting a condemned prisoner. It won two awards in Shanghai last year and appears to have gotten a local Sri Lankan release this past spring. I'd love to see this film bring them back.

Taiwan- “A Foggy Tale” I see three main possibilities for Taiwan this year- wedding farce “Double Happiness” (Tokyo), about a man getting married at two weddings simultaneously to please his divorced parents, grim coming-of-ager “Girl” (Venice, Main Competition ’25), which is the directorial debut of actress Shu Qi, and “A Foggy Tale”, a road movie full of gallows humor set against the background of Taiwan’s “White Terror”, in which the military regime killed real or suspected political opponents. Interestingly, all three films (and last year’s Oscar-shortlisted “Left-Handed Girl”) competed against each other at the Taipei Film Festival, which features a local “Taiwanese Film Awards”. “Foggy Tale” won Film, Screenplay and three tech awards, “Double Happiness” won Director, Actor and Supporting Actor, “Left-Handed Girl” won Editing (Sean Baker!), and New Talent, while “Girl” just won a single Cinematography award. More important than the Taipei Awards is Netflix; five of their last seven Oscar submissions had Netflix deals, which bodes well for “Foggy Tale” and “Double Happiness”. In the end, I think the more serious nature of “Foggy” (plus the better reception at TFF) will play in its favor over "Double Happiness". Dark horses: It was obscure music documentary “Dance of a Soloist” that actually won the Taipei Film Festival Grand Prize, while late release “I Blew Out the Candles Before Making a Wish”, about life in Macau, has been generating some late buzz. 

Tajikistan- “Fish on a Hook” Poor Tajikistan has the worst luck at the Oscars. They submitted a very good film (“Sex & Philosophy”) in 2005 but it was disqualified when the print didn’t arrive in Los Angeles in time. They next submitted in 2023 with “Melody”…which was disqualified because they didn’t have an approved selection committee (it was allowed to compete the following year). Last year, the charming “Black Rabbit, White Rabbit” – the best film of the three – was disqualified too, which I heard (but cannot confirm) was due to some odd music copyright violation. Only their initial 1999 submission (the excellent “Luna Papa”) made it to Hollywood unscathed. I visited Tajikistan on vacation this year and it is truly a beautiful and charming country. This year, they actually have two lovely rural dramas if they choose to remain in the competition…and I really hope they do. The first is “Fish on a Hook”, which won Best Picture at Tajikistan’s local film festival last year, and the second is “Another Birth” (Busan), made by a New York-based Tajik woman filmmaker. Both of these films about rural children make an excellent choice, and both would be the first time since “Luna Papa” that Tajikistan would be represented by a local Tajik filmmaker (the other three had Iranian directors who came to Tajikistan so they could make Persian-language films without Islamic censorship). It’s a tough decision, but I give the edge to “Fish on the Hook” since the director is Tajikistan-based and the film is an Iranian co-production like the previous three modern submissions.

Thailand- “Gohan” Like Korea, Thailand unexpectedly released an early shortlist last month…I don’t understand why they are doing this so early because there is a major advantage to seeing how late releases are received by critics....and because new films are often slated for release at the last minute. In any case, the eight finalists include three festival/“arthouse” entries- “Human Resource” (Venice Horizzonti/Busan), “Nine Temples to Heaven” (Cannes Director’s Fortnight) and “Regretfully at Dawn” (Busan), four “commercial entries”- “Four Tigers”, “Gohan”, “In the Name of Love” and “The Undertaker 2: Afterlife”, plus Pen-Ek Ratunaruang’s “Morte Cucina”, a thriller vehicle for Tadanobu Asano which falls halfway between the two categories. All but action-fantasy  “In the Name of Love”, (premiering in September) have screened for critics. I see this as a race between “Human Resource”, arguably the best-reviewed of the three festival films, stray dog anthology “Gohan”, which has been touted as a successor to the Oscar-shortlisted “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” and the buzzy "Nine Temples to Heaven". Unlike other countries, Thailand usually chooses commercial audience-pleasers rather than intellectual festival films (like the slow-moving “Nine Temples to Heaven”). “Gohan” tells three stories by three different directors about how one dog affects the lives of three human families. Two of these three directors have represented Thailand at the Oscars before and the film has been a major box-office and critical success. The Venice label will certainly “Human Resource”, a well-reviewed office drama about a young Thai woman working in HR who discovers she is pregnant. Its director has also been selected before. “Nine Temples to Heaven” has the Cannes label but this dull film is said to be similar to Apichatpong Weerasethakul…who is actually not popular in Thailand. “Morte Cucina” looks great and has star-power but reviews are probably the weakest of Pen-Ek Ratanaruang’s career. “Four Tigers” has great reviews but looks too light; “Undertaker 2” is a sequel to a film most people haven’t seen….The unreleased fantasy “In the Name of Love” could certainly surprise if it’s great but I still think “Gohan” and “Human Resource” are the strongest possibilities. "Gohan"'s artistic and tonal similarities to "Grandma", which got Thailand to the shortlist for the first time, mean I'm predicting it wins....but it will be very close. 

Uzbekistan- “The Great Amir and Donna Maria” Uzbekistan sent two films in 2019 and 2021 and then quickly gave up. It’s possible they could return with costume drama “The Great Amir and Donna Maria”, an epic historical film that looks gorgeous, about a woman in 2026 who learns her fate is somehow mysteriously linked to that of a European concubine enslaved in a 15^th century harem. It was made by the director of Uzbekistan’s last 2021 submission. However, it’s unclear to me if the film is in English or not. If it is, they could consider “Cotton” (Cairo), an arthouse film about a village woman desperately trying to make ends meet in the absence of her husband who disappeared while working abroad. But they’re the least likely of the four Central Asian republics to submit this year.

Vietnam- “Spirit Guardians” Vietnam makes mostly poor choices. In the past eight years, they have mostly veered away from arthouse cinema, choosing two commercial comedies (2018, 2021), two commercial action movies (2019, 2022), and two jingoistic war dramas (2024-2025). Many of these were not popular with local or international critics (especially embarrassing box-office flop “578 Magnum”). Only one, “Glorious Ashes”, played at anything resembling a major festival (Tokyo). This year, I don’t know of any big, patriotic dramas, which means I won't have to suffer through another "Red Rain". A normal country would probably choose “Ky Nam Inn” (Toronto/Busan), an intimate and critically acclaimed drama set in the 1980s, about the relationship between a younger man and an older widow after the fall of Saigon. That would probably be the choice if the year ended today…But I think they will ultimately send “Spirit Guardians: The Last Secret of the First Emperor”, a splashy 10^th century period martial arts fantasy starring Hollywood actor and stuntman Johnny Tri Nguyen, which will premiere during Vietnam’s National Day holidays in September. It's already been picked for a Toronto TIFF premiere. I’m feeling good about this pick, though “Ky Nam Inn” will probably do better with Oscar voters. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Vietnam: “Zero Meets Hero”, a gentle, intergenerational comedy about a war veteran and his Gen-Z grandson encountering Vietnamese folk traditions on a road trip, “Blood Moon Rite 8”, a very well-reviewed horror-comedy that I’d love to see, and “Bunny”, a commercial Netflix thriller made by a previously submitted director. Not considered: “Hearing” will premiere in Locarno but the director’s previous film “Taste” was banned and the directors subjected to fines for making it without permission.