2011 Oscar Predictions

I'm going to try my hand at the Oscar nominees in the major categories:

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Obviously, my favorite category....

COMPLETELY SAFE
1. CANADA- "Incendies"
2. DENMARK- "In A Better World"

PROBABLY SAFE
3. MEXICO- "Biutiful"

VERY VULNERABLE
4. JAPAN- "Confessions"
5. SOUTH AFRICA- "Life, Above All"
6. ALGERIA- "Hors-la-Loi"
7. SWEDEN- "Simple Simon"

UNLIKELY
8. SPAIN- "Even the Rain"
9. GREECE- "Dogtooth"

I think Sweden is too light, Spain is too high-brow and Greece are too weird to get nominations...But then, I never thought "Milk of Sorrow" could get nominated, but it did last year which shows this committee's tastes may be subtly changing.

I've seen 12 of the 66 national submissions, but none of the nine finalists....I'll only be happy if JAPAN's "Confessions" makes the list.

As for the OTHER categories:
BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Alternate: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (I predict an upset and that Eisenberg fails to get a nomination)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
5. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Alternate: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Alternate: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Amy Adams, The Fighter
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Alternate: Mila Kunis, Black Swan

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. The Coen Brothers, True Grit
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Alternate: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

BEST PICTURE
1. The Social Network
2. Black Swan
3. The King's Speech
4. True Grit
5. The Fighter
6. Toy Story 3
7. Inception
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. Blue Valentine
10. Winter's Bone
Alternate: 127 Hours

Let's see how I do tomorrow morning!

Final Predictions

I just heard that the 9-film shortlist will be announced today, January 18th, so I wanted to get these out right away....

Here are my final predictions for the Oscar shortlist, in order of likelihood...Yes, I know FRANCE is one of the favorites, but I'm predicting it just misses the mark....

Lots of boring-looking films in the Top Tier (another Bouchareb war drama), but I am hoping against hope that more original films like JAPAN's "Confessions" and PERU's "Contracorriente" can push aside some of the more traditional Oscar fare.

UPDATE, 1/19/2011: Moving "Tirza" out of the Top Nine and replacing it (fingers crossed!) for "Confessions"....Adding Sweden's "Simple Simon", whose buzz is growing (too late?)

MY PREDICTIONS
1. CANADA- Incendies
2. DENMARK- In A Better World
3. ITALY- The First Beautiful Thing
4. MEXICO- Biutiful
5. SOUTH AFRICA- Life Above All
6. CHINA- Aftershock
7. ALGERIA- Hors-la-Loi
8. GERMANY- When We Leave
9. JAPAN- Confessions

VERY LIKELY ALTERNATES:
10. CZECH REPUBLIC- Kawasaki’s Rose
11. FRANCE- Of Gods and Men
12. NETHERLANDS- Tirza
13. PERU- Contracorriente

LONGSHOTS:
14. GEORGIA- Street Days
15. SWEDEN- Simple Simon
16. TURKEY- Honey
17. RUSSIA- The Edge
18. BOSNIA- Cirkus Columbia
19. THAILAND- Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
20. VENEZUELA- Hermano

SLIGHT CHANCE, BUT WOULD SHOCK:
21. SERBIA- Besa
22. SPAIN- Even the Rain
23. ROMANIA- If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle
24. ICELAND- Mamma Gogo
25. ISRAEL- The Human Resources Manager
26. AFGHANISTAN- Black Tulip
27. SWITZERLAND- La Petite Chambre
28. INDIA- Peepli [Live]