So, I got four out of five nominees, and I'm happy with that. I expected Documentary Feature favorite "20 Days in Mariupol" would manage to get an International Feature nominee....But the Academy went with Italy's grim human trafficking drama "Io Capitano" instead. I had Italy ranked 9th....but I wasn't surprised to see it make the list.
This year, every Oscar prognosticator is pointing out that "Zone of Interest" cannot possibly lose because it is also nominated in the Best Picture race. That makes sense, but I'm not convinced.
Last year's "All is Quiet on the Western Front" showed that Netflix is a powerful force in the category and that getting your movie seen is often just as important as good reviews. Survival drama "Society of the Snow" not only has Netflix behind it, but it's also arguably the better reviewed film, proved by higher ratings on IMDB and Letterboxd ("Zone of Interest" is ahead on Rotten Tomatoes). Ironically, "Perfect Days" ranks first on all three websites.
We've never had a Netflix film versus a Best Picture nominee before.....
I didn't personally like "Zone of Interest"....and that's probably why I'm predicitng a surprise win for Spain and the haunting (and Best Make-Up nominee) "The Society of the Snow".
FINAL PREDICTIONS:
1. SPAIN- "Society of the Snow" (50%)
2. UNITED KINGDOM- "Zone of Interest" (44%)
3. JAPAN- "Perfect Days" (5%)
4. GERMANY- "Teachers' Lounge" (1%)
5. ITALY- "Io Capitano" (0%....just happy to be nominated!)
