So, I'm late to post because I only was able to see plucky Brazilian historical drama "I'm Still Here" on Oscar afternoon.
First of all, this year I managed to see 71 of the 89 announced films, which includes three of the disqualified entries. My personal favorite was Icelandic-Japanese romance "Touch" which managed to make the Top 15 but didn't get an Oscar nomination. Overall. the nominees this year are good. "I'm Still Here" is "highbrow" and probably the most deserving of a win. "Emilia Perez" is a big mess but definitely the most original and the most entertaining. "Flow" is a beautiful work of art made on a shoestring budget. "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" is the brave "intellectual" choice with an incredible backstory worthy of its own film. And "The Girl with the Needle"? Not a bad film....but very much out of its league in this group.
Ultimately, this is between France and Brazil. "Emilia Perez" was the favorite all year....but nobody seems to know why. Critical reviews are fine but a lot of people hate it and lead actress Karla Sofia Gascon's tweet controversy (which was way overblown if you ask me....Her tweets were a bit rude but she didn't say anything deserving of being canceled) sabotaged the film's momentum. Everybody who sees "I'm Still Here" falls in love with it. If it was in English, it might be a threat to win Best Picture.
Since they changed the Oscar rules to benefit the "big" films, everyone has said that an International Film nominated for Best Picture and other categories will automatically win in this category. But this year "Emilia Perez" and "I'm Still Here" are both nominated for Best Picture....and other categories. That means that people who ordinarily would have lied about seeing all five films have now seen "Emilia" and "I'm Still Here". And that being the case, "I'm Still Here" should be able to win this easily....Most people are still predicting France....but I am not...and that should hand Brazil its first-ever Oscar in this category.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
1. BRAZIL- "I'm Still Here" (61%)
2. FRANCE- "Emilia Perez" (35%)
3. LATVIA- "Flow" (3%)
4. GERMANY- "Seed of the Sacred Fig" (1%)
5. DENMARK- "Girl with the Needle" (0%)
I saw all 15 nominated short films too.....My predictions in these three niche categories:
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
1. A Lien (USA) (55%.....domestic politics will help this immigration thriller succeed) B+
2. Anuja (INDIA) (20%....the power of celebrity backers and Netflix could elevate this one....though it doesn't deserve it) B
3. I Am Not a Robot (NETHERLANDS) (10%....the only comedy....and by far the actual best film of the five nominated short) A
4. The Last Ranger (SOUTH AFRICA) (10%....weakest film of the five but has the predictable sentimentality that this category sometimes swoons for) C+
5. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (CROATIA) (5%) A chilling Balkan drama....but perhaps a bit too short to win Best Short) A-
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. I A Ready, Warden (45%.....By far the best film of the five) A
2. Incident (43%....The favorite....and most politically relevant) B+
3. The Only Girl in the Orchestra (10%.....Well-made Netflix drama) B+
4. Instruments of a Beating Heart (2%)
5. Death by Numbers (0%....Well done and courageous....and made by a student who survived the Parkland massacre....but not as accomplished as the other four) B
ANIMATED SHORT
These were pretty weak this year. The best one on the shortlist "Au Revoir mon monde" from France, didn't get nominated (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUScyWlkJg8)
1. Wander to Wonder, (UNITED KINGDOM) (75%) A
2. Yuck! (FRANCE) (20%) B+
3. In the Shadow of the Cypress, (IRAN) (4%) B+
4. Beautiful Men, (BELGIUM) (1%) B
5. Magic Candies, (JAPAN) (0%) C
