Short Films

 A quick note about the short films before today’s announcement…There are fifteen shorts nominated in each of the three short film categories and I was fortunate to see 33 of the 45 films- 13 animated films, 9 documentaries and 10 live-action. 

The best were “The Butcher’s Stain” (Israel), “Playing God” (Italy) and “Armed with a Camera” (USA) though only the last one is guaranteed to be nominated for an Oscar. 

Here are my predictions for the films I saw- 

Animated- 

1. Snow Bear- Somehow the official frontrunner…Cute but forgettable. B+

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls- Brilliantly animated stop-motion fable by a previous nominee. A-

3. Éiru- Forgettable Celtic myth…Also said to be a frontrunner for the win. B

4. Playing God- Terrifyingly beautiful. Best of the lot. A

5: Papillon- Original animation…Important but dull story of a Jewish Algerian swimmer facing discrimination and the Nazis. B+

6. Forevergreen- The best of the “cute” children’s shorts. A

7. Retirement Plan- An A for the script, a C for the rather plain and simple animation. B+

8. Hurikán- Funny, “Run Lola Run”-esque urban adventure with a boarman looking for beer in a Czech town. B+

9. Cardboard- Cute kiddie comedy about a family of pigs. B+

10. Autokar- Dull, dreamy “Alice in Wonderland” set on a Polish bus. B

11. The Shyness of Trees- French fantasy about a woman and her dying (Wiccan?) mom. B

12. I Died in Irpin- I support Ukraine but did not enjoy this primitive short. C-

13. Les bottes de la nuit- Kiddie film about a haunted forest. B-

I didn’t see Quinta’s Ghost, which I hear is a dark horse, or Three Sisters, which I’ve heard will NOT be nominated. 

Documentaries 

1. All the Empty Rooms, A. So sad…and will probably win. A documentary filmmaker films the rooms of school shooting victims. 

2. Armed Only with a Camera, A+ Deserves to win. Fitting tribute to a great journalist. 

3. Rovina’s Choice, A. Film about the effects of USAID cuts on individual family at a refugee camp in Kenya. Politically important. 

4. Cashing Out, A-. Fascinating look at a controversial company that helped monetize the life insurance of AIDS patients in the 80s. 

5. Bad Hostage, A-. Well-made and informative look at so-called “Stockholm Syndrome” telling three complete stories of female hostages. 

6. Last Days on Lake Trinity, A-. Devastatingly sad and very well-done cinema verite. 

7. All the Walls Came Down, B. Important topic, middling filmmaking. 

8. Perfectly a Strangeness, Is following a bunch of cute donkeys around with a camera, a reason to give the director an Oscar? Cute but no. C

9. We Were the Scenery, Boring film that looks like someone filming their Vietnamese grandparents telling a story.  C-

I didn’t see “The Devil is Busy” which will surely take one of the five nomination spots, and  “Heartbeat” which will probably come in last place. I also failed to see  “Chasing Time”, “Classroom Four”, “Children No More” and “On Healing Land”. 

Live-Action

1. Friend of Dorothy, A-. Give Miriam Margolyes an Oscar! cute funny very well-made short film from UK

2. Beyond Silence, B+. Sexual assault drama from the Netherlands

3. Boy with the White Skin, B+. Film about an albino boy in Senegal. This is shot like a horror film and is a very good short….even though it seems like they forgot to film a final scene.

4. Ado, B.School shooting drama. A bit over-emotional and maudlin. Oscar should love it

5. Butcher’s Stain, A. Best film on the list. This is an Israeli film, shot like a thriller, about discrimination against Arabs in Israeli society.

6. Extremism, B+. Film about Putin’s repression in Russia told from the perspective of two young lesbians. 

7. Pantyhose, A-. Formulaic but fun and relatable relationship comedy from Finland. 

8. Jane Austen’s Period Drama, A-. Super fun comedy, but probably too silly for the Oscars. 

9. Amarela, B- Average short about the life of a Brazilian Japanese girl

10. Butterfly on a Wheel, D. How can a film that looks and sound so beautiful be so bad? 

I missed seeing The Singers, Pearl Comb, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Rock Paper Scissors and Dads Not Home.

OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, the rules make things so predictable now that I correctly predicted 12/15 finalists this year....and the three films that I missed (Germany, Palestine and Switzerland) were among my four alternates. I'm still a bit surprised that Denmark and the UK failed to make the shortlist (It's only the fourth time Denmark has missed since 2010)....The last film I predicted - Colombia's "Un poeta" - was probably a bit of wishful thinking. 

Moving on to next week's Oscar nominations....

This year is an exciting race because we literally have no idea which film will win. The well-made but dull “Sentimental Value” has been the front-runner all year and is expected to be nominated in a number of mainstream categories (although the SAG snub of its entire cast should make them worry). “It Was Just An Accident”, the Iranian film representing France, has a Cannes Palme d’Or, the critics vote, and the best backstory of the bunch. Dissident filmmaker Jafar Panahi, now travelling in the United States, wrote the script based on a previous stint in an Iranian prison and now faces another jail sentence and travel ban if and when he returns to increasingly unstable Iran….which he has sworn to do. But, as Brazil did last year, “The Secret Agent” has been rising fast and is peaking  at the right time….Though everyone tells me the film is “difficult” and very, very long, people genuinely seem to love it…and its Golden Globe win last night makes it a serious threat.

The other two Oscar nominees probably don’t have a chance to win….but there’s an exciting race to see which two get the invitations to Hollywood. Almost everyone is predicting that this will be an exciting toss-up between Korea (the popular, commercial option), Spain (the darling of critics and the guilds) and Tunisia (the sentimental and political choice). Kaouther Ben Hania is a two-time Oscar nominee and she and Park Chan-wook are AMPAS members.

Is there room for a surprise in such a front-loaded race? It’s unlikely but possible. Reportedly, last year’s 4-time Oscar winner Sean Baker (“Anora”) and Netflix are lobbying  hard for the (rather basic) “Left-Handed Girl”…which Baker co-wrote. With Korea, Spain and Tunisia splitting the vote, Taiwan could be a potential spoiler.

What about the rest? 

It’s always an advantage when you are a frontrunner and/or shortlisted in other categories, which will help Japan’s “Kokuho” (Make-Up and and Costume Design) and Germany’s “Sound of Falling” (Cinematography)…though they don’t seem “loved” enough outside their home countries. And while buzz has been quieter, “Belen” (Amazon) and “Homebound” (Netflix + Martin Scorsese) have powerful allies in their corner too.

The other four - Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Switzerland are probably out of luck- even if some of them are much better films than the frontrunners. Jordan’s “All That’s Left of You” – which has an American director and is arguably the best-reviewed film on the list - might have a chance if it wasn’t splitting the vote with two other films focused on Palestine.

Incidentally, I’ve seen eight of the fifteen films on the list….I’d rank them in the following order…..None were bad.

1. India- "Homebound" 9/10

2. Switzerland, "Late Shift" 9/10

3. France, "It Was Just An Accident" 8/10

4. Korea, "No Other Choice", 8/10

5. Spain, "Sirat", 7.5/10

6. Taiwan, "Left-Handed Girl", 7.5/10

7. Argentina, "Belen", 7/10

8. Norway, "Sentimental Value", 5.5/10

And here’s my predicted ranking:

VIRTUALLY LOCKED

1. NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” (Letterboxd: 42, Rotten Tomatoes: 97, IMDB: 79)

2. BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” (LB: 39, RT: 99, IMDB: 79)

3. IRAN FRANCE- “It Was Just An Accident” (LB: 40, RT: 97, IMDB: 75)

These three are safe. They’ve swept the precursors, have almost no detractors and – most importantly – are all solidly in the race for Best Picture.

BLOODBATH FOR A NOMINATION

4. SPAIN- “Sirat” (LB: 36, RT: 93, IMDB: 70)

5. TUNISIA- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (LB: 43, RT: 96, IMDB: 86)

6. KOREA- “No Other Choice” (LB: 42, RT: 98, IMDB: 76)

Statistically, it’s “Sirat” that should get knocked out. It’s a divisive film and reviews aren’t as good as the other two. But it made four Oscar shortlists for the guilds (Casting, Score, Cinematography and Sound) showing it has a broad base of support. For now, I think “No Other Choice” will be left out because it’s (a lot) less serious. But I love Park so I hope I’m wrong. This could really go any way. 

VERY DARK HORSES

7. TAIWAN- “Left-Handed Girl”

8. JAPAN- “Kokuho”

9. INDIA- “Homebound”

As mentioned, these three Asian films have powerful backers….But Taiwan is probably the only one with a chance. The three-hour “Kokuho” is impressive but may have an hour too much kabuki…..

HOPING FOR A MIRACLE

10. JORDAN- “All That’s Left of You"

11. GERMANY- “Sound of Falling”

12. IRAQ- “The President’s Cake”

I’m not sure why Germany is here. Nobody seems to like it. 

Everyone who sees Jordan says it’s one of the best films of the year. Why hasn’t it gotten nominated anywhere? 

Iraq, the only country to be shortlisted for the first time, had a lot of buzz but it disappeared before Oscar season….Sony Pictures Classics didn’t fight for it 

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

13. ARGENTINA- “Belen”

14. SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift”

15. PALESTINE- “Palestine 36”

“Belen” is a nice little film about an important topic (abortion) but I felt that someone had taken the script of “Argentina 1985” and literally rewritten the structure to be about abortion. 

“Palestine 36”, the least visible of the three films about Palestine won’t be able to compete with Jordan and Tunisia….but making the list is a major accomplishment for Jacir. 

Last is Switzerland, the only country that made the shortlist with no major stars, backers, distributors or supporters in their corner. It was one of the best of the 92 submitted films this year. How wonderful it made the shortlist and how sad it really has no chance to advance further….