Well, the 9-film Foreign Film shortlist will come out today (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday), so it's time to draft my list of predictions...I'm fairly confident about the first seven films on the list, but the other two will really depend on the Elite Committee....
Will they be forced to use their "three film save" to nominate acclaimed movies like "Le Havre" and "A Separation"? Or will those films find favor with the larger committee, allowing them to go right-field with divisive choices like "Pina" or "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"?
Will the large committee choose "Oscary" films that have gotten mostly bad reviews, like "Sonny Boy" and "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel"? We'll find out very soon.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. IRAN- Nader & Simin: A Separation
2. CANADA- Monsieur Lazhar
3. POLAND- In Darkness
4. FINLAND- Le Havre
5. FRANCE- Declaration of War
6. MEXICO- Miss Bala
7. ISRAEL- Footnote
8. AUSTRIA- Breathing
9. CHINA- Flowers of War
VERY STRONG POSSIBILITIES
10. NETHERLANDS- Sonny Boy (Large Committee Only)
11. HONG KONG- A Simple Life
12. MOROCCO- Omar Killed Me
13. GERMANY- Pina (Elite Committee Only)
14. ICELAND- Volcano
15. IRELAND- As If I Am Not There
16. SPAIN- Black Bread
17. NORWAY- Happy, Happy
18. RUSSIA- Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel (Large Committe Only)
19. LEBANON- Where Do We Go Now?
20. SWEDEN- Beyond
21. TURKEY- Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Elite Committee Only)
22. HUNGARY- The Turin Horse (Elite Committee Only)
23. NEW ZEALAND- The Orator
24. DENMARK- Superclasico
25. BULGARIA- Tilt
26. BELGIUM- Bullhead
27. JAPAN- Postcard
28. SLOVAKIA- Gypsy
29. COLOMBIA- Colors of the Mountain
30. ITALY- Terraferma
31. CHILE- Violeta
I don't see anyone else as having a real shot.....
LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION- Uruguay's low-budget horror movie "The Silent House" (which isn't a bad movie but is definitely out of its league here...)
MOST LIKELY TO GET THEIR FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION- Morocco, for "Omar Killed Me"
Agree? Disagree? Feel free to let me know...