Well, the 9-film Foreign Film shortlist will come out today (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday), so it's time to draft my list of predictions...I'm fairly confident about the first seven films on the list, but the other two will really depend on the Elite Committee....
Will they be forced to use their "three film save" to nominate acclaimed movies like "Le Havre" and "A Separation"? Or will those films find favor with the larger committee, allowing them to go right-field with divisive choices like "Pina" or "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"?
Will the large committee choose "Oscary" films that have gotten mostly bad reviews, like "Sonny Boy" and "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel"? We'll find out very soon.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. IRAN- Nader & Simin: A Separation
2. CANADA- Monsieur Lazhar
3. POLAND- In Darkness
4. FINLAND- Le Havre
5. FRANCE- Declaration of War
6. MEXICO- Miss Bala
7. ISRAEL- Footnote
8. AUSTRIA- Breathing
9. CHINA- Flowers of War
VERY STRONG POSSIBILITIES
10. NETHERLANDS- Sonny Boy (Large Committee Only)
11. HONG KONG- A Simple Life
12. MOROCCO- Omar Killed Me
13. GERMANY- Pina (Elite Committee Only)
14. ICELAND- Volcano
DARK HORSES
15. IRELAND- As If I Am Not There
16. SPAIN- Black Bread
17. NORWAY- Happy, Happy
18. RUSSIA- Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel (Large Committe Only)
19. LEBANON- Where Do We Go Now?
20. SWEDEN- Beyond
21. TURKEY- Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Elite Committee Only)
22. HUNGARY- The Turin Horse (Elite Committee Only)
23. NEW ZEALAND- The Orator
24. DENMARK- Superclasico
REAL LONGSHOTS
25. BULGARIA- Tilt
26. BELGIUM- Bullhead
27. JAPAN- Postcard
28. SLOVAKIA- Gypsy
29. COLOMBIA- Colors of the Mountain
30. ITALY- Terraferma
31. CHILE- Violeta
I don't see anyone else as having a real shot.....
LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION- Uruguay's low-budget horror movie "The Silent House" (which isn't a bad movie but is definitely out of its league here...)
MOST LIKELY TO GET THEIR FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION- Morocco, for "Omar Killed Me"
Agree? Disagree? Feel free to let me know...
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3 comments:
Thanks for giving your predictions-- I always look forward to them.
Also, you might be interested: this weekend, I decided to do a little test by looking up the films on Netflix and seeing what average grade Netflix users had given them (out of five stars).
I'm curious to see if there will be any correlation with the final shortlist. Probably not-- I gather that some Netflix users rank what they want to see rather than what they have seen-- but you never know...
Here were the Top 9:
A Separation, Iran- 4.3
Pina, Germany- 4.2
Where Do We Go Now, Lebanon- 4.0
Attenberg, Greece- 3.8
The Turin Horse, Hungary- 3.8
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Turkey- 3.8
Miss Bala, Mexico- 3.7
Le Havre, Finland- 3.6
The Flowers of War, China- 3.5
Footnote and In Darkness were a step below at 3.4; Bullhead, Happy Happy, and October were 3.3; Breathing and Declaration of War at 3.1. FL submissions not yet on Netflix included Monsieur Lazhar, Superclasico, Omar Killed Me, Postcard, Burnt By the Sun 2, Black Bread, and Beyond.
Obviously, some of the Top 9 are very unlikely (Attenberg) and others are big longshots (The Turin Horse and Once Upon a Time in Anatolia), but one never knows. Also, the high scores for Pina and Where Do We Go Know might hint at a greater likelihood for their inclusion.
And one final question: do you think that Miss Bala might need the Executive Committee's help? Given the violence, I'd assume so.
The top 9 has been announced. Not one single film from Latin America was included.
Belgium, "Bullhead," Michael R. Roskam, director;
Canada, "Monsieur Lazhar," Philippe Falardeau, director;
Denmark, "Superclásico," Ole Christian Madsen, director;
Germany, "Pina," Wim Wenders, director;
Iran, "A Separation," Asghar Farhadi, director;
Israel, "Footnote," Joseph Cedar, director;
Morocco, "Omar Killed Me," Roschdy Zem, director;
Poland, "In Darkness," Agnieszka Holland, director;
Taiwan, "Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale," Wei Te-sheng, director.
Just to follow up on the Netflix study-- only 2 of the public's top 9 made it in. I find that kinda funny but wholly unsurprising.
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