Thursday, December 15, 2016


Final Predictions....

So, I've heard that the final list will come out tomorrow (Friday) but that it could come out as early as today (Thursday) so I'm rushing to post this final post.

So many people are predicting the (terrible) documentary "Fire at Sea" from Italy and the animated film from Switzerland, but I find it hard to believe that they will be able to break out of their respective genres especially since they are both on the lists for Best Documentary and Best Animated Film at the Oscars (and especially since "Fire at Sea" is a bad documentary).

Will they care about giving a posthumous honor to Poland's Andrzei Wajda, even though his final film is not considered his best? Will they reward outstanding filmmaking (Slovakia's "Eva Nova") and/or challenging topics (France's "Elle")? Or go with friendlier, easier choices (Sweden's "A Man Called Ove", Brazil's "Little Secret")?

And will it matter that so many former winners (Almodovar, Farhadi and Tanovic plus Honorory Oscar winner Wajda) and nominees (Abu Assad, Larrain, van der Oest, Yamada) are competing against each other?

And can Egypt finally get their first nomination after over 50 years of trying? Can any smaller countries surprise?

Here are my predictions:

1. DENMARK- "Land of Mine"
2. GERMANY- "Toni Erdmann"

4. FINLAND- "The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki" (Elite Committee Save)
5. EGYPT- "Clash" (Elite Committee Save)
6. SWEDEN- "A Man Called Ove"
7. IRAN- "The Salesman"
8. CHILE- "Neruda"
9. BRAZIL- "Little Secret" (this year's surprise WTF nominee)

10. FRANCE- "Elle"
11. SPAIN- "Julieta"
12. SINGAPORE- "Apprentice"
13. ISRAEL- "Sandstorm"
14. CANADA- "Juste le fin du monde"
15. RUSSIA- "Paradise"
16. SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova" 
17. NORWAY- "The King's Choice"
18. ARGENTINA- "The Distinguished Citizen"

19. ALGERIA- "The Well"
20. AUSTRALIA- "Tanna"
21. MACEDONIA- "The Liberation of Skopje"
22. POLAND- "Afterimage" (only because Wajda is dead)
23. SOUTH KOREA- "Age of Shadows"
24. SWITZERLAND- "Ma vie de courgette"
25. VENEZUELA- "From Afar"

26. GEORGIA- "House of Others"
27. ROMANIA- "Sieranevada"
28. SOUTH AFRICA- "Call Me Thief"
29. ITALY- "Fire at Sea" (Dear Academy: Please don't choose this one!)
30. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Death in Sarajevo"
31. SERBIA- "Train Driver's Diary"
32. VIETNAM- "Yellow Flowers on Green Grass"

33. ESTONIA- "Mother"
34. PALESTINE- "The Idol"
35. MONTENEGRO- "The Black Pin"
36. GREECE- "Chevalier"
37. NEPAL- "The Black Hen"
38. ICELAND- "Sparrows"
39. KYRGYZSTAN- "A Father's Will"
40. TURKEY- "Cold of Kalandar"

And just for fun.....

Bottom-ranked of the 85 films:
85. PERU- "Videophilia"
84. THAILAND- "Karma"
83. LITHUANIA- "Seneca's Day"

Most Likely to get their first-ever nomination: EGYPT- "Clash"
Runner-ups: SINGAPORE- "Apprentice", SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova"

Good luck to all 85 countries!


Evan said...

If I had to list a Top 14, it would be your entire top 13 minus Brazil and plus the UK and South Korea. I'm going with:

Land of Mine
Toni Erdmann (Elite Committee)
Elle (Elite Committee)
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Clash (Elite Committee)

dzong2 said...

Hi Evan,

Well...Brazil is definitely a long-shot but I want to try and guess the "surprise" because we all know there will be at least one.

Im surprised you ranked U.K. so high...It's an entertaining film but it's nothing I'd expect to get honored here.

I'm watching "Barakah Meets Barakah" as I wait for the announcement. It's absolutely charming....and pretty damned subversive by Saudi standards!

Spartak said...

I mostly agree with you though I'd replace Brazil (if it was not for the scandal with "Aquarius", it may be true) and Sweden with Israel/Poland (Again I strongly believe in "Afterimage") and Spain. I suppose that Argentina is also very close to this list.

For me "Under the Shadow" is in my year's top 5 (at least before I've watched Germany, Iran and Chile) and the Elite Committee may choose it (or "The Ardennes") if they want another dark film instead of "Elle".