Final Predictions....
So, I've heard that the final list will come out tomorrow (Friday) but that it could come out as early as today (Thursday) so I'm rushing to post this final post.
So many people are predicting the (terrible) documentary "Fire at Sea" from Italy and the animated film from Switzerland, but I find it hard to believe that they will be able to break out of their respective genres especially since they are both on the lists for Best Documentary and Best Animated Film at the Oscars (and especially since "Fire at Sea" is a bad documentary).
Will they care about giving a posthumous honor to Poland's Andrzei Wajda, even though his final film is not considered his best? Will they reward outstanding filmmaking (Slovakia's "Eva Nova") and/or challenging topics (France's "Elle")? Or go with friendlier, easier choices (Sweden's "A Man Called Ove", Brazil's "Little Secret")?
And will it matter that so many former winners (Almodovar, Farhadi and Tanovic plus Honorory Oscar winner Wajda) and nominees (Abu Assad, Larrain, van der Oest, Yamada) are competing against each other?
And can Egypt finally get their first nomination after over 50 years of trying? Can any smaller countries surprise?
Here are my predictions:
NEARLY A LOCK
1. DENMARK- "Land of Mine"
2. GERMANY- "Toni Erdmann"
PREDICTED
3. NETHERLANDS- "Tonio"
4. FINLAND- "The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki" (Elite Committee Save)
5. EGYPT- "Clash" (Elite Committee Save)
6. SWEDEN- "A Man Called Ove"
7. IRAN- "The Salesman"
8. CHILE- "Neruda"
9. BRAZIL- "Little Secret" (this year's surprise WTF nominee)
STRONG ALTERNATES:
10. FRANCE- "Elle"
11. SPAIN- "Julieta"
12. SINGAPORE- "Apprentice"
13. ISRAEL- "Sandstorm"
14. CANADA- "Juste le fin du monde"
15. RUSSIA- "Paradise"
16. SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova"
17. NORWAY- "The King's Choice"
18. ARGENTINA- "The Distinguished Citizen"
DARK HORSES:
19. ALGERIA- "The Well"
20. AUSTRALIA- "Tanna"
21. MACEDONIA- "The Liberation of Skopje"
22. POLAND- "Afterimage" (only because Wajda is dead)
23. SOUTH KOREA- "Age of Shadows"
24. SWITZERLAND- "Ma vie de courgette"
25. VENEZUELA- "From Afar"
LONG SHOTS
26. GEORGIA- "House of Others"
27. ROMANIA- "Sieranevada"
28. SOUTH AFRICA- "Call Me Thief"
29. ITALY- "Fire at Sea" (Dear Academy: Please don't choose this one!)
30. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Death in Sarajevo"
31. SERBIA- "Train Driver's Diary"
32. VIETNAM- "Yellow Flowers on Green Grass"
LONGEST OF LONG SHOTS
33. ESTONIA- "Mother"
34. PALESTINE- "The Idol"
35. MONTENEGRO- "The Black Pin"
36. GREECE- "Chevalier"
37. NEPAL- "The Black Hen"
38. ICELAND- "Sparrows"
39. KYRGYZSTAN- "A Father's Will"
40. TURKEY- "Cold of Kalandar"
And just for fun.....
Bottom-ranked of the 85 films:
85. PERU- "Videophilia"
84. THAILAND- "Karma"
83. LITHUANIA- "Seneca's Day"
Most Likely to get their first-ever nomination: EGYPT- "Clash"
Runner-ups: SINGAPORE- "Apprentice", SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova"
Good luck to all 85 countries!
So, I've heard that the final list will come out tomorrow (Friday) but that it could come out as early as today (Thursday) so I'm rushing to post this final post.
So many people are predicting the (terrible) documentary "Fire at Sea" from Italy and the animated film from Switzerland, but I find it hard to believe that they will be able to break out of their respective genres especially since they are both on the lists for Best Documentary and Best Animated Film at the Oscars (and especially since "Fire at Sea" is a bad documentary).
Will they care about giving a posthumous honor to Poland's Andrzei Wajda, even though his final film is not considered his best? Will they reward outstanding filmmaking (Slovakia's "Eva Nova") and/or challenging topics (France's "Elle")? Or go with friendlier, easier choices (Sweden's "A Man Called Ove", Brazil's "Little Secret")?
And will it matter that so many former winners (Almodovar, Farhadi and Tanovic plus Honorory Oscar winner Wajda) and nominees (Abu Assad, Larrain, van der Oest, Yamada) are competing against each other?
And can Egypt finally get their first nomination after over 50 years of trying? Can any smaller countries surprise?
Here are my predictions:
NEARLY A LOCK
1. DENMARK- "Land of Mine"
2. GERMANY- "Toni Erdmann"
PREDICTED
3. NETHERLANDS- "Tonio"
4. FINLAND- "The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki" (Elite Committee Save)
5. EGYPT- "Clash" (Elite Committee Save)
6. SWEDEN- "A Man Called Ove"
7. IRAN- "The Salesman"
8. CHILE- "Neruda"
9. BRAZIL- "Little Secret" (this year's surprise WTF nominee)
STRONG ALTERNATES:
10. FRANCE- "Elle"
11. SPAIN- "Julieta"
12. SINGAPORE- "Apprentice"
13. ISRAEL- "Sandstorm"
14. CANADA- "Juste le fin du monde"
15. RUSSIA- "Paradise"
16. SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova"
17. NORWAY- "The King's Choice"
18. ARGENTINA- "The Distinguished Citizen"
DARK HORSES:
19. ALGERIA- "The Well"
20. AUSTRALIA- "Tanna"
21. MACEDONIA- "The Liberation of Skopje"
22. POLAND- "Afterimage" (only because Wajda is dead)
23. SOUTH KOREA- "Age of Shadows"
24. SWITZERLAND- "Ma vie de courgette"
25. VENEZUELA- "From Afar"
LONG SHOTS
26. GEORGIA- "House of Others"
27. ROMANIA- "Sieranevada"
28. SOUTH AFRICA- "Call Me Thief"
29. ITALY- "Fire at Sea" (Dear Academy: Please don't choose this one!)
30. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Death in Sarajevo"
31. SERBIA- "Train Driver's Diary"
32. VIETNAM- "Yellow Flowers on Green Grass"
LONGEST OF LONG SHOTS
33. ESTONIA- "Mother"
34. PALESTINE- "The Idol"
35. MONTENEGRO- "The Black Pin"
36. GREECE- "Chevalier"
37. NEPAL- "The Black Hen"
38. ICELAND- "Sparrows"
39. KYRGYZSTAN- "A Father's Will"
40. TURKEY- "Cold of Kalandar"
And just for fun.....
Bottom-ranked of the 85 films:
85. PERU- "Videophilia"
84. THAILAND- "Karma"
83. LITHUANIA- "Seneca's Day"
Most Likely to get their first-ever nomination: EGYPT- "Clash"
Runner-ups: SINGAPORE- "Apprentice", SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova"
Good luck to all 85 countries!
