And here are my predictions for the MENA region (the Middle East and North Africa) followed by the films from sub-Saharan Africa.
The countries of sub-Saharan Africa submitted just four films last year (Madagascar, South Africa and Uganda, plus Senegal, which was disqualified). The more established North African countries sent three more. This was surprising because a record number of African countries had announced selection committees (15, by my count). With strong potential entries by Congo, Kenya, Rwanda and Sudan, I think the number will go up this year.
I did very well with my predictions from the region last year, predicting 8/15 correctly.
Algeria- “Chronicles from the Siege” Algeria took last year off, announcing that they didn’t have any films of sufficient quality to send to the Oscars. I expect this year will be a fierce two-way race between two politically tinged dramas – Malek Bensmail’s “The Arab” (Rotterdam) and Abdallah al-Khatib’s “Chronicles from the Siege” (Berlin). “The Arab”, which co-stars Hiam Abass and the late Ahmed Benaissa, re-examines Camus’ French classic “The Stranger” (and recent Algerian history) from an Algerian point of view. “Chronicles from the Siege” is a drama about Palestinians trying to survive Israeli occupation. This will be interesting. “Chronicles” is higher-profile, and neighboring Tunisia got an Oscar nomination last year with a film about Palestine. But though the film is a majority Algerian production, the director is a Germany-based, Syria-born Palestinian. But “The Arab” recently had its Algerian screenings pulled for unknown censorship reasons and it’s not scheduled to be released in French cinemas until November. A similar thing happened to “Papicha” a few years ago, which was sent by Algeria. So I’ll pick “Chronicles” for now. Horror-drama “Roqia”, which looked like an early frontrunner last year in Venice, will fail to dislodge these two leading political dramas.
Egypt- “The Stories” A few years ago, it was hard to find even one movie that could capably represent Egypt at the Oscars, but this year there are no less than eight- two Berlinale dramas (“Safe Exit” and “The Settlement”), three “big” new films by previously submitted and very accomplished directors- Abu Bakr Shawky’s “The Stories”, Mohamed Diab’s “Asad” and Marwan Hamed’s “El Sett”- and three smaller dark horses - absurdist comedy-drama “Complaint #713317” (Cairo/Rotterdam), documentary “One More Show”, and slow burn drama “My Father’s Scent”. Based on reviews alone, I think “The Stories” will be selected. It’s a sprawling film following two decades of Egyptian history (very “Oscary”), through the eyes of a man, his family and the Austrian student he is courting (based on the director’s parents). Shawky was previously picked for “Yomeddine”, its online review scores are the highest....it just generally looks like the most solid choice. Close behind are “Asad”, a period drama about slavery in 19th century Egypt (director Diab deserved an Oscar nod for “Clash” but AMPAS didn't even shortlist it) and “My Father’s Scent”, a drama about family secrets that come out after a man dies. “El Sett”, a 3-hour biopic about one of the country’s greatest singers, and “One More Show”, a documentary about a Gaza circus are also possible…though “Sett” is probably “too local” and Egypt has never picked a documentary. From this list, the film I most want to see is absolutely dark comedy “Complaint”, about an elderly couple facing off against Egyptian bureaucracy. Looks great!
Iran- “Land of Angels” So, without getting into politics, I’m fairly certain that Iran will boycott the Oscars this year due to their military conflict with the U.S....That would mean the Islamic Republic will be absent for just the second time since 1997 (they foolishly boycotted in 2012 because they didn’t like a YouTube video). If they do send a film (which they won’t), they’ll probably want to send a film that either shows Iran in a good light, or the U.S. and Israel in a bad one. That would seem to be “The Land of Angels”, which won Best Iranian Feature at the Fajr Film Festival and which focuses on a woman in Gaza seeking to save the lives of a group of children amidst Israeli attacks. A lighter option would be “Boating in Tehran”, a sort-of-romantic-comedy about an Iranian man in the U.S. who returns to Iran to find a bride and get married. It shows Iran in a very human light and has a senior director with close ties to the regim. They have lots of other options but it would be a waste of time to go into them since they are unlikely to participate.
Iraq- “Irkalla- Gilgamesh’s Dream” Iraq was shortlisted last year for “The President’s Cake”, which was better than any of the five films that eventually got nominated. Sigh. Iraq should have a pretty easy decision this year, as I expect they will submit the critically acclaimed “Irkalla: Gilgamesh’s Dream”, an Arabic-language film by Mohamed al-Daradji who has been selected to represent Iraq three times. The film looks wonderful, and is about a 9-year living in wartime Iraq, who is convinced that local myths will help to bring his dead parents back to life. Iraq made the shortlist last year with the story of a 9-year old, so this will probably be the one. If they believe it’s the Kurdish region’s “turn”, then they could arrange a release for "No Paradise If You Are Killed by a Woman", which is also made by a previously submitted director, and which is about female Kurdish peshmerga fighters. However, I expect it will be eligible next year. Good luck to Irkalla!
Israel- “Our Loves” In June, the Israeli Film Academy announced the 22 films contending for the award and I put them in an IMDB List. The winner of the Best Picture award, which usually has 5 nominees, automatically represents Israel at the Oscars as long as it's not in English (like "The Band's Visit"). I predicted that three films would easily be nominated - (1)- “Our Loves” (just announced for Toronto), a multi-storyline drama set against the background of the October 7th terrorist attacks, (2)- “Tell Me Everything” (Sundance), a father-son drama set during the 1980s HIV/AIDS epidemic and (3)- “Where To?” (Berlin), a talky drama set in Berlin, about a middle-aged Palestinian driver and an Israeli youth who repeatedly cross paths in his Uber vehicle. I predicted that "Double Panther" (looks like an Israeli "The Departed") and "Heart of Gold" (a woman adopts an abandoned baby) would get the other two slots. When the Ophir nominations were announced last week, the three frontrunners were nominated, alongside three others: Poland-set drama "Mama" (Cannes), Orthodox wedding comedy "The Wedding Entertainer" (Tribeca), and an obscure out-of-left-field drama called "Home!" that hasn't screened anywhere. I still totally believe this is a race between the first three films, which were all nominated for Best Film, Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Ophirs (so was "Mama").
LGBT drama "Tell Me Everything" seems more likely than taxi movie "Where To?" for a couple of reasons. "Tell Me Everything" is the most nominated film in Ophir history and seems to have slightly stronger reviews. But the wild card is "Our Loves", which nobody has seen yet. The tragedy of October 7 looms large in Israel, where 1200 people were murdered that day by Hamas terrorists. Director Avi Nesher has had his films nominated numerous times but he's never won anything. Bad luck, or do they just not like him? Will this subject be "important enough" to finally award him? "Tell Me Something" director Moshe Rosenthal is also "owed". He was expected to win the Ophir and go to the Oscars in 2021 for "Karaoke"....but "Cinema Sabaya" (which was very good) was the surprise winner that year. Three of the past five years, Israel has picked a film about Israel's Palestinian community....so "Where To?" can't be counted out entirely. Based on the subject matter, I'm predicting "Our Loves"...but "Tell Me Everything" is definitely very, very possible. We'll find at the Ophir ceremony on September 9!
Jordan- “Sink” Jordan has a three-way race but the obvious frontrunner is “Sink” (Toronto), a drama about a mother dealing with the debilitating mental health issues of her teenaged son. It looks like a more serious entry than local dark comedy “Simsim”, about a woman seeking to escape an unhappy marriage by netting her terrible husband a second wife, and coming-of-age crime drama "Boomah" (Shaghai). However, Jordan often sends majority Palestinian productions (like last year's shortlisted "All That's Left of You") so they sometimes pick something I didn't realize was eligible…That could benefit upcoming documentary “Concrete Land”, which booked a Semaine de la Critique berth at Locarno. All this could change if “Occupational Hazards”, a black comedy set in Jerusalem, is released before September 30. Starring Hiam Abbass and written/directed by the writer of Oscar-nominated “Theeb”, this will win out on the off chance it gets finished…but since it’s part of the “Final Cut” screenings in Venice that’s very unlikely. Mark it down in ink for next year.
Kuwait- “The Boy Inside the Cocoon” Kuwait last sent a film to the Oscars in 1978, before I was born. That’s the longest absence of any country! There’s no indication they plan to return this year, but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “The Boy Inside the Cocoon”, a folk horror film about a boy dealing with his parent’s divorce and the death of his sister. It seems to have premiered in local cinemas in January.
Lebanon- “Furies" Lebanon almost always chooses something released at the very last minute....which means the frontrunner is now "Furies", a feminist heist above two sisters trying to steal back money they lost during Lebanon's banking crisis. Though it's yet to premiere, it has booked berths at both Venice and Toronto and is executive produced by none other than George Clooney. That should do it. But if "Furies" is poorly received, they could also go with "Only Rebels Win" (Berlin Panorama), starring Hiam Abbass (again! Does this woman have body doubles?) It's a May-December romance about a widow (Abbass) who falls for a Sudanese asylum seeker. Dark horses: archival documentary "Do You Love Me?" (Venice 2025) and drama "Pipes" (Karlovy Vary).
Morocco- “Strawberries” For five of the past seven years, Morocco has simply picked a new film made by power couple Nabil Ayouch and Maryam Touzani, including last year’s criminally underappreciated “Calle Malaga” which deserved an Oscar nomination. Ayouch and Touzani don't have a new film this year and this year is somewhat quieter than previous years, but I predict that they’ll send Cannes Un Certain Regard title “Strawberries”, a well-reviewed film about two Moroccan women who face labor exploitation while working as seasonal strawberry pickers in Spain. The other possibility is “Behind the Palm Trees”, a drama about a man who becomes involved in a love triangle between his local girlfriend and a newly arrived French woman…It was the only Moroccan film in competition in Marrakech this year. Rounding out the Top 5: Director Noureddine Lakhmari has repped Morocco twice and his new “Mira” (Tallinn Black Nights) is about a rural village girl and her grandmother whose community is faced with an influx of migrants seeking to reach Europe (very topical, following the crisis in Ceuta!); “Bad Weather” is about a family conflict over a small inherited apartment; and “Halima” (Best Actress, Shanghai) is about an elderly woman who gets involved in the drug trade.
Palestine- “Conversation with the Sea” Three films about Palestine made last year’s International Feature shortlist (plus “Butcher’s Stain”, an Israeli short which earned a Live-Action Short Oscar nomination). That included the entry from Palestine itself, which made the shortlist for the second year in a row. Palestinian artists and directors continue to impress. Most of Palestine’s contenders this year are documentaries (they sent docs in 2015, 2018 and 2023) and the two most likely are both about Gaza- "Citizen Osama" (Venice), about a photographer-turned-war-documentarian trying to protect his wife and child amidst Israeli strikes, and “The Mission”, about an Arab-British surgeon volunteering in the Gaza Strip. Interestingly, "Citizen Osama" was made by one of the 22 directors of "From Ground Zero", alongside its well-known producer Rashid Masharawi. “Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” and “Who Is Still Alive” have good reviews but foreign directors so I expect they're out of the running. Among fiction films, “Yunan” (Berlin), co-starring Hanna Schygulla, has the edge over “Yesterday the Eye Didn't Sleep” (Cannes Un Certain Regard), whose slow-moving plot has prompted some bloggers to argue that they did in fact sleep…..while the upcoming "Conversation with the Sea" (Venice and Toronto) and "13 in Gaza" (Toronto) look like potential serious threats if they get released in time. Dark horse: I’d love to see them send dark comedy “Once Upon a Time in Gaza”…but I think it was eligible last year (and probably isn't serious enough). I've changed my mind three times already but I'm predicting "Conversation with the Sea", about a father seeking to track down his long-lost son who disappeared two decades prior, due to its presence at two major festivals this year. "Osama" and Masharawi should be a razor-close second place.
Saudi Arabia- “Unidentified” Will Saudi Arabia go serious or silly? Ten years ago, this was not a question I thought I would ever ask, when cinema was banned and mullahs ran the kingdom…This year’s clear frontrunner is “Unidentified”, a thriller about a woman trying to solve the mystery of a young girl found dead in the desert. Reviews have been middling but director Haifaa al-Mansour is Saudi Arabia’s most well-known international filmmaker and she was personally involved in getting Saudi Arabia into the Oscar race back when cinemas were still closed. The film has also played at a number of festivals including Toronto and Tribeca. But Saudi Arabia unexpectedly picked an adult-themed comedy in 2023 and dark comedy “A Matter of Life and Death” – about a woman with a death wish and a man who dreams of murder - has gotten better reviews. I expect Saudi will go "serious" but both films look great. Unlikely but possible: mountain climbing documentary “Seven Summits”.
Syria- “If Only the Year Had 364 Days” Syria sent a documentary to the Oscars in 2017 which was nominated by a pro-opposition selection committee in exile. Now that the civil war is over, we will probably see Syria return. In fact, Qatar has backed a $1.5 billion deal to build a massive entertainment, tourism, and film production hub in Syria. But I doubt that will happen this year. To check the box, I’ll predict “If Only the Year Had 364 Days”, a docu-drama about a political prisoner who returns to the notorious Syrian prison where he was tortured, following the revolution.
Tunisia- “Promised Sky” Tunisia has managed to make the International shortlist three times in the past six years, thanks to Kaouther Ben Hania, earning three Oscar nominations (two in International Film, one in Documentary Feature). If the year ended today, it would be foolish to bet against “Promised Sky”, a topical film about African migrants that has played at festivals around the world since its Cannes debut last year. I didn’t like Erige Sehiri’s previous film “Under the Fig Trees” so I’d prefer they chose the likely runner-up “Where the Wind Comes From”, a breezy road movie about two 20-year olds on a road trip to Tunisia’s desert south. In third place- Berlin drama “In a Whisper” is a French co-production about a lesbian (will the film be too gay for Tunisia?) coming home to Tunisia for a funeral and encountering murder mysteries and family secrets. I have dark horse “Têtes brûlées” (Berlin 2025, 14+), about adolescent grief and co-stars Hiam Abbass (is this woman in everything?). But wait one minute…Ben Hania has a new film (“Mimesis”) in post-production and there are rumors it's being prepped for a premiere soon (it was rumored for Venice but is not in the lineup). Could she finish it in time and do another “Hind Rajab”? We’ll see. Interesting trivia: ALL FIVE of the Tunisian frontrunners are directed by women…meaning that Tunisia is almost certain to select a female-helmed film for the fifth year in a row. A possible international record??
Turkey- “Empire of the Rabbits” I wrote up my predictions for Turkey in July. I said it was a wide-open race, but that I was predicting "Empire of the Rabbits" (Tallinn Black Nights). Apparently that was submitted last year even though it didn't get a wide cinematic release in Turkey until this year. Turkey ended up selecting a film I had never heard of at all...."Like a Limbless Tree"....so I had it wrong anyway. The obvious choice to represent Turkey – Emin Alper’s “Salvation”- wasn't likely to be considered because Alper has been a longtime critic of President Erdogan and publicly feuded with the Ministry of Culture…which forms the Oscar selection committee. In addition to "Empire of the Rabbits", I was also looking at “As We Breathe” (Toronto/Cairo), “Greatest Funeral Hits” (Tokyo), “Hear the Yellow” (Berlinale Forum) and “Bonds, Roots and Passions” in my (incorrect) Top Five.
Yemen- “The Station” War-torn Yemen has submitted three films since 2016, all of which exceeded my expectations (my favorite was “10 Days Before the Wedding”). This year, UK-Yemeni director Sara Ishaq, who got an Oscar nomination in the Doc Short category in 2014, had a new fiction feature at Cannes called “The Station”, about a gas station that employs and serves only women, amidst the country’s bloody civil war. It looks wonderful and has great reviews and I truly hope they form a committee to send it to Hollywood.
Burkina Faso- “Katanga, The Dance of the Scorpions” The capital of African arthouse cinema has only officially entered the competition twice (in 1989 and 2023) which is a shame because they have made some of my favorite African films. A Burkinabe film- “Katanga, The Dance of the Scorpions”- won the local FESPACO African Film Festival in 2025 and it seems to have been released in African and European cinemas late that year. So if there’s any justice this sumptuous Shakespearean tragedy based on Macbeth should go to Hollywood…but maybe it’s too politically controversial for Burkina’s current military dictatorship?
Cameroon- “Malgré Tout” Between 2020-2024, Cameroon sent five films by three young directors to the Oscars. All three came from the same English-speaking region of Bamenda in northwestern Cameroon. One of them, Enah Johnscott, is making his French-language debut this year with “Malgré Tout”, about the problems faced by a young woman who has recently graduated from university. That’s definitely their most likely choice.
Chad- “Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars” Impoverished Chad had a rare film last year at FESPACO and Toronto - “Diya”, about the grim tradition of requiring “blood money” from those who cause an accidental death. I’ve heard it’s pretty great. However, Chad’s three previous Oscar submissions were all made by auteur director (and former Minister of Culture) Mahamat-Saleh Haroun, so it would be silly to bet against “Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars” (Berlin/Toronto), a sci-fi drama about a 17-year girl experiencing troubling supernatural visions.
Congo-Kinshasa- “Congo Boy” Congo sent a single film way back in 1997…but this year, they made the unexpected announcement that they were planning to return to the competition and that they were launching an official call for submissions. With a fiction film at Cannes Un Certain Regard (“Congo Boy”, also in Locarno), a documentary at Berlinale Panorama (“Enough is Enough”), and a genuine local box-office hit (“Rumba Royale”) in the running, it’s a great year for a return. With plans for a pan-African release and special screenings in the U.S., I was going to predict this would go to historical thriller “Rumba Royale” set during the final years of Belgian colonial rule and featuring a thumping local soundtrack….but reviews for “Congo Boy” are much better.
Côte d’Ivoire- “In the Shadow of Bitterness” The Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) sent films by Philippe Lacôte in 2015 and 2020 (somehow making the shortlist for the inscrutable poetry of “La nuit des rois”). This year, their most acclaimed film is a political documentary called “Far From Anger”, about women seeking justice for the atrocities of the 2011 civil war. But if they do return, they’re more likely to send the less controversial melodrama “Dans l’ombre de l’aigreur” (In the Shadow of Bitterness), about an unlucky businessman driven to desperate measures. I think they’ll skip.
Ethiopia- “Dolivia” Ethiopia sent four films to the Oscars between 2010-2019 before giving up, although they do have a sizeable local film industry. This year’s highest profile film is 9-hour (?!) documentary “Black Lions – Roman Wolves”, which somehow played at Berlinale (hopefully there was a bathroom break). If Ethiopia did choose to return, they could send Amharic-language drama “Dolivia” (about gold miners) or Oromo-language folklore thriller “Keeper of the Lake”.
Ghana- “Zjili: A Story of Sisterhood” Ghana sent a film just once in 2019. Most of Ghana’s films are mostly in English, though some include enough of the local dialect to qualify under new rules that allow English-language films that require subtitles for international audiences to understand. “Sukura: The Homecoming”, about an African-American man researching his family history in Ghana dominated the local film awards and is definitely too “English” to qualify. Ghana is unlikely to return this year but they could send the upcoming “Zjili” (in the Dagbani and Twi languages), a drama about female labor migration which is set to premiere in Toronto Discovery next month, or local crime drama “King of T3ma”. “Zjili” is unlikely to get a cinematic release by September 30, but may be sent next year.
Kenya- “One Woman, One Bra” Kenya skipped last year due to a lack of suitable entries, but this year has been much stronger. Their most likely submission is “One Woman, One Bra” (Tribeca), which is a far more serious film than its title indicates, about an orphan trying to secure the rights to her father’s land against the encroachment of greedy neighbors. This looks great and is one of the African films I'm most excited to see this year. If not, it will probably be “Anam’s Wake”, a supernatural thriller by the director of “Supa Modo”, about a professional mourner who actually meets Death. Although Kenya will probably choose between these two, Kenya also has hijacking drama “Bus 338”, crime drama (and Swedish coproduction) “The Dog”, as well as documentaries “Kikuyu Land” (Sundance) and “Truck Mama” (Red Sea). Kenya will definitely be back.
Lesotho- Nothing The small mountain kingdom of Lesotho sent a film just once in 2020. The director of that film had a documentary that played in Berlin last year (“Ancestral Visions of the Future”) but it appears to be completely in English. They don’t have anything else to send.
Madagascar- “Dear Ancestor” Madagascar joined the Oscar race last year for the first time with the intriguing drama “Disco Afrika”. While they probably won’t return this year, they do have “Dear Ancestor”, an unconventional documentary set in the year 2067, looking back on present-day mining and environmental activism (which was also the main theme of “Disco Afrika”).
Malawi – “Chitomero” Malawi has entered the Oscar race twice and they could very well return this year with either “Chitomero”, about the controversial tradition of child betrothal, or “Royal Dilemma”, a rare costume drama from the region about the relationship between two noble families. I give the edge to “Chitomero” which got a cinematic release before being released online.
Mauritania- “Undertows- A Tuareg Tale” Abderrahmane Sissako got an Oscar nomination for Mauritania in 2015 for “Timbuktu”. He waited a decade to make his next film (Chinese co-production “Black Tea”), which was notably not sent to the Oscars. So, Mauritania will be absent yet again. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Undertows”, a documentary focusing on the challenges faced by the Tuareg people living in the harsh Mauritanian-Malian Sahel.
Mozambique- “The Prophet” Mozambique submitted a very good film in 2017 and they’re still the only one of the five Portuguese-speaking African countries ever to enter the Oscar race. This year, I am hoping that they return with “The Prophet” (Rotterdam), a supernatural B+W drama about a Christian pastor who makes an unholy deal with a witch to increase his influence over his congregation. Filmed over the course of nine years, it has played internationally and has English subtitles and hopefully will encourage them to return. They also have “Blood and Remorse”, a psychological thriller about how a tragic accident affects a group of friends.
Namibia- Nothing Namibia sent the fascinating David Lynch-esque “Under the Hanging Tree” in 2023. Last year, they had an open call for submissions and received two entries but determined that one was a majority South African-production and the other wasn’t released within the eligibility window. Similarly, I think this year they won’t have anything eligible. Their highest-profile film - “Wrong Generation”, an indie drama about youth street protests - appears to be primarily in English.
Niger- Nothing Coup-prone Niger submitted one film in 2018 but they’re among the least likely countries to return this year. I don’t think they have anything eligible, although “The Big Everything” (Le grand tout), a documentary featuring ordinary Nigerien people speaking about politics and history would be an interesting choice. It was directed by a white French filmmaker with strong family ties to Niger.
Nigeria- “Lady” I don’t like to waste much time researching Nigeria because it’s hard to figure out what meets the language requirements and because their committee usually meets (perhaps for a buffet lunch?) and decides to send nothing….even when they have multiple suitable options. Nigeria, by far Africa’s most populous nation, has had an approved Oscar committee since 2014 but they’ve only sent films four times – including one that was 95% in standard English and disqualified. On paper, it would seem the frontrunner is UK co-production “Lady”, about a female driver who befriends a group of sex workers and becomes their personal chauffeur. It played in Berlin and won Best Acting Ensemble at the Sundance Film Festival but it’s in a mix of “English and Nigerian Pidgin English” and I’m not sure it’s eligible. “The Secret Lives of Baba Segi's Wives”, a comedy-drama-soap-opera about the four feuding wives of a wealthy Yoruba man, would be a fantastic option if they can do a qualifying release by September 30...It's currently scheduled to be released in December. There are also a number of pre-colonial Yoruba-language costume dramas in the running like “Segilola: The Villain” (which sounds really good), “King of Thieves 2” (Note: the well-reviewed first film in the series was submitted to the Nigerian committee which then decided to send nothing) and “Warlord”. If it meets the language requirement, my prediction is “Lady” but I'm personally hoping for “Baba Segi’s Wives” which definitely has enough foreign language content.
Rwanda- “Ben’imana” Rwanda got an official Oscar selection committee approved last year. Although they didn’t send a film, they are likely to debut this year with “Ben’imana”, which won the 2026 Cannes Un Certain Regard Camera d’Or this year. It’s about a woman who works in community rebuilding following the Rwandan genocide and, according to IMDB, has some sort of sci-fi element (?!). Whether it is picked or not will likely depend on whether it can get a 7-day cinematic release somewhere. They also have basketball drama “Kwibuka”, which co-stars Jean-Hugues Anglade!
Senegal- “Dao” African films rarely gets shortlisted but Senegal was shortlisted three times for the six films they sent between 2017-2024…though I didn’t think any of them deserved this honor (in my opinion, the best Senegalese submission - “Nafi’s Father”- was ignored entirely). Five Senegalese directors have been selected over the years and two – Alain Gomis and Mamadou Dia – have new films this year. Dia, who was quietly disqualified for unknown reasons last year, has dance documentary “Atcha Atcha”, which is due to premiere in Locarno. French-born Gomis premiered “Dao”, described as a “sprawling 3-hour epic” about family traditions and ancestors set between France and Guinea-Bissau (though not Senegal). Berlin and Gomis give “Dao” the edge.
Somalia- “Barni” Somalia sent a lovely film to the Oscars just once in 2021. If they return this year, it will surely be “Barni” (Locarno 2025), a well-reviewed drama directed by Somali-American Mohammed Sheikh, about a girl who mysteriously disappears during a village wedding. It’s one of the films I’m hoping will be a surprise entry this year.
South Africa- “Laundry” South Africa’s biggest films are usually in English but this has been a very good year for local-language cinema. The frontrunner is Zulu-language “Laundry” (Toronto), a well-reviewed drama about a family of Black business owners, set during some of the worst years of apartheid. I’m pretty sure that will be the one, but it faces competition from “God’s Work” (also in Zulu), an experimental drama about the lives of homeless men in the city of Durban, and “The Trek”, an brand-new Afrikaans horror-drama set during a journey across the Kalahari Desert. Another Afrikaans option, “Variations on a Theme” (Rotterdam), looks intriguing; it’s about an elderly village widow who becomes the victim of a scam – but at just 65 minutes, I hear it’s somewhat slight. Berlin LGBT youth drama “Black Burns Fast” probably has too much English.
Sudan- “Cotton Queen” War-torn Sudan tried to find a film to send last year but the only film submitted to their committee was found to be ineligible (I don’t know why). Their two previous submissions ranged from very good (“You Will Die at 20”) to truly great (“Goodbye Julia”...it's a crime that AMPAS did not nominate this incredibly moving films.....). I think “Cotton Queen” (Venice 2025) will be number three. It’s about a headstrong young woman seeking to preserve her community’s way of life when faced with the pressures of globalization. It appears to have gotten a qualifying release in Germany and Egypt that would make it eligible. It also looks fantastic. Runner-up: Sundance documentary “Khartoum”.
Tanzania- “Nisamahe Baba” Tanzania returned to the Oscars with much local fanfare in 2022 after a 20-year absence…then they promptly quit again. They had two local feature films at their international film festival in Zanzibar this year – “Nisamehe Baba” and English-language “Couple Goals”.....So my prediction is “Nisamahe Baba”, a drama about urban youth in an impoverished Swahili-speaking neighborhood….but they’ll surely skip again this year.
Uganda- “Adui” Uganda seems to have an easy decision this year, with poaching drama “Adui” the frontrunner. Reportedly the first Ugandan film to be screened at the Cannes Film Market, it was also the most nominated African-language film at Uganda’s national film awards. It’s about a game ranger ostracized by his village after he is blamed for the death of a poacher’s son. “Small Gods”, about impoverished street performers in a tourist town, got a Best African Film nomination at the African Oscars and a Best East African Film award in Zanzibar, but the director is British so I think they’ll opt for “Adui”.
