Better Late Than Never, Foreign Oscar Predictions N-Z

In progress....

Nepal- “Aama” Nepal announced two finalists for their submission, so this a 50-50 pick. I think “Aama”, a rather routine family melodrama, will get the nod because it has a Nepali director and because it looks like the other movies that Nepal has picked over the years. The other choice- “Sarita”- an odd musical docudrama featuring ethnic Nepali refugees from Bhutan living in a Nepalese camp- would probably be a smarter choice. But it’s an unusual little film and it has an Italian director so it may be less likely to be chosen.

Netherlands- "Bulado"- I was pretty sure they were going to pick "My Best Friend Anne Frank" 

New Zealand- NOTHING I’ve researched this and I don’t think New Zealand has any fiction films or documentaries that are in languages other than English. I can’t find a single film that is mostly in Maori or any other language. Last year, they had an excellent choice (“Vai”) that they didn’t send so it seems pretty certain they will skip this year.

Nicaragua- “La hija de todas las rabias” Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010 and they produce very few films. At this year’s Latin American Film Festival in Washington, they were the only Latin country not represented. They do have a new fiction feature in development- “La hija de todas las rabies”- about an impoverished little girl who lives at a garbage dump. It won a few awards “in development” at San Sebastian so perhaps we’ll see it in the competition next year.

Niger- “Tenere” Niger submitted a film just once in 2018. Although it’s unlikely they’ll send a film, they do have documentary “Tenere”. Directed by Turkish journalist Hasan Soylemez, this Hausa-language doc follows the journey of would-be migrants trying to cross the barren deserts of Niger on the way to the Mediterranean and Europe.

Nigeria- “Citation” So, Nigeria submitted a film for the first time last year (“Lionheart”) which was mostly in English. Austria also submitted a movie about Nigerian prostitutes living in Vienna which was disqualified for the same reason. “Lionheart” director Genevieve Nnaji and Ava du Vernay whined about colonialism, seemingly unable to comprehend that Kenya, Pakistan, Canada, South Africa and other British colonies all managed to find movies that weren’t in English. This year, AMPAS made the odd determination that films in “Pidgin English” can qualify. In my opinion, the Austrian film (“Joy”) would have qualified last year as Pidgin, but “Lionheart” was still in fairly standard English. Does having a Nigerian accent make it Pidgin? I think not, and AMPAS is likely to regret the decision. Nigeria is likely to want to send “This is My Desire”, which was nominated for Best First Feature at Berlinale, or “Citation”, a sexual harassment thriller currently available on Netflix. Based solely on their trailers, both of these films are mostly in standard English (with a Nigerian accent), though “Citation” clearly has some dialogue in French and local languages. If you want to her what real Pidgin English sounds like, try watching the trailer of “The Lost Okoroshi”, a low-budget Nigerian comedy that played at Toronto which would qualify if submitted.  Ultimately, I think Nigeria will send “This is My Desire” and get disqualified again. “Citation”, which is at least partially in French, will have a better chance, as would missing child drama “The Ghost and the House of Truth”.

Norway- "Hope" This was one of the easiest decisions for any European country and I predicted this would win. Cancer drama "Hope" easily defeated poorly reviewed drama "Disco" and weird documentary "Self Portrait", which were also on the shortlist.

Pakistan- "Zindagi Tamasha" (except it can't because of crazy religious people😡)- UPDATE on December 8th- I'm so happy Pakistan picked this. "Zindagi Tamasha" (aka "Circus of Life") was scheduled to be released in early 2020 until a crazy, fanatic religious party began threatening the director and cinemas. The film cleared Pakistani's notoriously fussy censorship board both before and after the controversy, and said the film can be released. But safety concerns and then COVID-19 made that difficult. Thankfully, the special Oscar rules this year mean that the film doesn't actually need to have screened. Pakistan's committee made a very brave decision to send this film!  

Palestine- "Gaza mon amour"

Panama- "Operacion Causa Justa"

Paraguay- “Nothing But the Sun” Paraguay’s committee met last year and elected not to send a film to the Oscars or the Goyas, but they have two strong contenders this year. Thriller “Killing the Dead” is going to the 2021 Goyas. It’s about two gravediggers who bury victims of the Stroessner dictatorship in the 1970s, and the moral dilemma they face when one of the corpses turns out to still be alive. Documentary “Nothing but the Sun” is the latest from Arami Ullon (who directed the first-ever Paraguayan submission in 2015), following an elderly man from a dying Native American tribe (the Ayoreo; population 5000) who goes on a final journey. I think Paraguay will spread the wealth….Since “Killing” is going to Spain, “Sun” will go to Hollywood.

Peru- "Song Without A Name"

Philippines- "Mindanao"

Poland- "Never Gonna Snow Again" Poland was the first country to select a film this year. 

Portugal- "Listen"

Puerto Rico- “Yerba Buena” Puerto Rico was unfairly uninvited from the Oscar competition in late 2010 after over two decades of sending films, including one nomination. Ironically, Greenland which has a similar status vis-à-vis Denmark was invited the same year. I still include Puerto Rico in my predictions for when they are finally invited back. This year, they would probably send “Yerba Buena”, a comedy about three women who go into the medical marijuana business after Hurricane Maria hits the island.

Romania- "Collective"

Russia- "Dear Comrades"

Saudi Arabia- “The Last Visit” They’ve only sent three films in the past seven years but cinemas were allowed to re-open in 2018 and the country has had a resurgent film industry (although COVID caused them to be temporarily closed again). Whereas they used to produce only one film every few years, they now have a competitive race. I think father-son drama “The Last Visit” (Karlovy Vary, Marrakech), about a road trip to visit a dying relative, will be selected. Other options include comedy “The Sun of Gnosis” and mystery-thriller “Zero Distance”.

Senegal- “Nafi’s Father” Senegal has submitted twice and made the Oscar shortlist twice. This year, they’ll almost surely be trying for a third spot with “Nafi’s Father” (Locarno 2019) a family drama about how Islamic extremism is influencing and damaging modern Senegalese society. It’s definitely one to watch.

Serbia- “Father” Last year, Serbia chose a nationalist period piece of little interest to Americans (“King Petar I”) over an acclaimed drama (“Stitches”). What will they do this year when the race is between nationalist period piece “The Name of the People” and acclaimed drama “Father”? Both directors have been selected before. Assuming both films are submitted (directors have to submit their films to be considered), I predict “Father” will get this because of its Class A festival play (two awards at Berlinale 2020) and the fact that director Srdan Golubovic is the only Serbian director to make it to the semifinals since the fall of Yugoslavia. His “The Trap” made the shortlist and was miles better than any of the final five nominees. Custody drama “Father” could be another threat for the shortlist.

Singapore- "Wet Season"

Sri Lanka- “The Other Half” They haven’t entered since 2009 and realistically they probably won’t send anything but they do have quite a few good options. Several of their arthouse films that never got a cinematic release could benefit from the looser screening requirements this year, e.g. “House of My Fathers” (Busan 2018, which I predicted last year) and Tamil-language “Soundless Dance”. There’s also disaster drama “Tsunami”, and “The Newspaper”, about a family ostracized by their community is falsely accused of being a suicide bomber. But for the sake of completion, I’ll guess “The Other Half”, about a poor village whose water well has been poisoned by agricultural chemicals.

Suriname- “Suriname” AMPAS approved an Oscar selection committee in the tiny Dutch-speaking country of Suriname for the first time this year….and I really don’t know why. Suriname doesn’t really have a film industry and I can’t imagine why they asked for it. Assuming they plan to submit a film, perhaps they want to send the eponymous crime drama “Suriname”, a majority Dutch production filmed in Suriname, about a presidential candidate trying to hide his criminal past. Or maybe they want to send documentary “The Stones Have Laws”, about the remote Maroon tribe, descended from escaped slaves. Both have Dutch directors. Will they even be eligible?

Syria- “9 Days at Raqqa” Syria submitted an anti-Assad documentary in the middle of the civil war in 2017. It’s my understanding that they appealed to the Academy for an exception to the screening requirement due to the war and were allowed to enter. “9 Days at Raqqa”, a documentary about a Syrian Kurdish woman who joins the armed resistance was supposed to premiere in the Docs section at Cannes 2020. It’s a majority French production with a French director and crew so I’m not sure it would be eligible. They also have “Between Two Brothers” (Cairo), a fiction film about two brothers who take opposite sides during the war, but the director’s pro-regime sympathies would likely prevent it from being chosen.

Tajikistan- Nothing. Tajikistan hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2005 and I don’t know of any films that are eligible. The first Dushanbe International Film Festival was supposed to take place in Spring 2020 where it would have a National Film section, but it was canceled.

Tanzania- “My Village” Tanzania hasn’t sent a film since 2001 but they could send Swahili-language family drama “My Village” (Kijiji Changu) about two friends growing up in a small village.

Thailand- “Nemesis” Thailand is harder to predict this year, with the National Film Awards canceled and the country facing a great deal of politufal unrest. I see four main possibilities: (1) “The Cave”, a dramatization of the Thai schoolboys who attracted global headlines when they were trapped in a cave by a flash flood, “Happy Old Year”, a romantic drama with good reviews about a woman pining for her ex,  “Krabi 2562”, a documentary about the ordinary people living away from the city’s famous tourist trade, and “Nemesis”, an action-thriller about a man seeking vengeance against the criminals who killed his family. Thailand is not afraid of genre films- romantic soap operas, docudramas and thrillers (as well as horror films and comedies) have all represented the country recently. “The Cave” would win this easily if reviews were better (The Hollywood Reporter compared it to a Lifetime movie). Indie filmmaker Anocha Suwichakornpong (“Krabi”) was just picked three years ago so will they want to spread the wealth? The directors of “The Cave” and “Happy Old Year” were front-runners to rep Thailand (“The Last Executioner” and “Heart Attack”) but weren’t picked, so will Thailand consider them owed? Ultimately, I think “Nemesis” looks like the sort of movie Thailand likes so it’s my guess with the familiar story of “The Cave” in second place. 

Uganda- “Kemi” Uganda formed an Oscar committee last year but ultimately decided not to send a film. They’ve launched an open call again this year but I’m not sure what they would send. Their big movie of the year- stylish kidnapping thriller “The Girl in the Yellow Jumper”- appears to be mostly in English. There are two releases I know about that are partially in African languages- “Kemi” and “November Tear”, although the latter doesn’t look like its production values are good enough. The director of “Kemi”, about a woman who regrets her decision to give up her child, helped found last year’s committee so that’s my guess.

UAE- “Chromosome” The United Arab Emirates former an Oscar selection committee in 2017 but they have not sent a film the past three years they were eligible. I hear that last year it didn’t even meet. They’ve said they don’t want to send a movie unless it’s a strong contender. I don’t think they will enter but their best bet is probably action-thriller “Chromosome”.

UK- "Limbo"

Uruguay- “The Champion of the World” Uruguay doesn’t have much to choose from this year so I’ll think they’ll pip for the well-reviewed documentary “Champion of the World”, about an ex-world champion bodybuilder who has retired and returned to his small town. Uruguay has shortlisted documentaries in the past but never chosen one, and this would seem to be a good year. Two other possibilities: Political thriller “The Year of Fury” is a Spanish co-production with a Spanish director but it’s about life in Uruguay prior to the 1973 military coup. If it is sufficiently “Uruguayan” it will likely be selected. But Uruguay, more than any Academy in the world, prefers comedies. So, they could also choose family comedy “Aleli” about three siblings fighting over an inheritance.

Uzbekistan- “2000 Songs of Farida” Uzbekistan submitted for the first time last year with teen melodrama “Hot Bread” and they’ve made things easier this year by announcing a three-film shortlist- early 20^th century period biopic “Ibrat” and two family dramas starring women- “Colorless Dreams” and “2000 Songs of Farida”. “Farida”, set in 1920, is about a traditional man whose family life is disrupted by the arrival of a fourth wife and of Communist rule in Central Asia. It’s the only one to play at a major film festival (Busan) and should be considered the frontrunner. However, “Colorless Dreams”, the only contemporary drama in the mix has the same star as last year’s “Hot Bread” as well as the same melodramatic style of filmmaking. It’s about a woman who has recently been released from prison. Here’s hoping Uzbekistan continues in the race!

Vietnam- "Rom"

Yemen- Nothing. War-torn Yemen has sent two films recently but I don’t think they have anything eligible this year.

Better Late Than Never: Predictions for the Oscar International Film Award (A-M)

I didn't have a chance to make my predictions this year and there are now exactly 50 submissions.....I decided to write up the countries that haven't made up their mind yet. 

Afghanistan- “I Am You”  "Drowning in Holy Water"           Sonia Nassery Cole successfully overcame a disqualification in 2010 for “Black Tulip”, the first film in a series of strong feminist submissions from the world’s most famous conservative country. Her new film- “I Am You”- is about Afghan refugees trying to make their way to Europe. It should be the obvious candidate but it premiered in Kabul in September 2019. I’m unsure if this was a special premiere, or whether it actually spent a week in cinemas. If it’s the latter, then they could send “Seven and a Half”, an Iranian co-production about girls and young women forced into marriage. UPDATE: I'm switching my vote to "Drowning in Holy Water", a new drama from Navid Mahmoudi that premiered at Busan. It's about an Afghan couple trying to illegally emigrate to Europe via Iran and it will probably be able to qualify due to the looser screening requirements in place this year. 

Albania- “Open Door”   I was going to predict “My Lake”, but the Albanian Academy beat me to it.

Algeria- “Heliopolis”      I never would have gotten this….I had predicted “South Terminal”

Argentina- “Crimes That Bind”   I really, really want to predict acclaimed LGBT drama “End of the Century” but the fact is that Argentina likes to nominate big names (like Cecilia Roth) and, although they use to spread the wealth by nominating different films to the Goyas and Oscars, the fact is that they have sent the same movie to both award ceremonies eight years in a row. So, it seems very likely they will send “The Crimes That Bind”, a psychological thriller already on Netflix about a mother whose son may or may not be a violent rapist.  

 

Armenia- “Should the Wind Fall” Armenia sent only four films between 2001-2015 but since then they have nominated films four years in a row. With Armenia in national mourning and political disarray after suffering territorial losses in a month-long war, it’s unclear whether they will be able to send a film or not. The front-runner looks like “Should the Wind Fall” (aka “Should the Wind Drop”), a drama about a French visitor to Nagorno-Karabakh (the subject of the recent war) which was an official selection for the now-canceled Cannes 2020 as well as Toronto. That seems like it would have the edge over “Songs of Solomon” a historical drama culminating in the Armenian Genocide.

Australia- “A Lion Returns”         Like with a lot of Australian films, they’ll have to get out the stopwatches for “A Lion Returns” which (based on the trailer) seems to be about 50% in English and 50% in Arabic.  It’s about a Muslim-Australian who returns from 18 months in Syria. “High Ground” (Berlinale), a period western about the manhunt for an Aboriginal warrior in English and the Aboriginal YolNgu Matha language, probably has too much English to qualify.  

 

Austria- “What We Wanted”     Austria selected the Netflix infertility drama “What We Wanted” which wasn’t on my radar. I was expecting refugee drama “Oskar & Lilli”.

Azerbaijan- “In Between Dying”  My new home country for the next year! Azerbaijan only submits intermittently (they submitted most years between 2007-2014 but just once since) but they had two major releases at international festivals this year- “In Between Dying” (Venice) and “The Island Within” (Best Director, Sarajevo). The international cache of “In Between Dying” (which counts Mexican director Carlos Reygadas as a producer) gives this tale of a day in the life of a young man haunted by death an edge over chess drama “Island Within”. It’s unclear whether the euphoria of winning the war with neighboring Armenia will make them more or less likely to submit this year.

Bangladesh- “The Salt in Our Waters”  This feature debut by Rezwan Shahriar Sumit, who won a Spike Lee writing fellowship a few years back, is likely to rep Bangladesh this year. It’s a drama about an artist who visits a remote, rural part of the country. However, Bangladesh’s nominees almost always come from the Impress Telefilm studio rather than indies like “Salt”, which means that “Beauty Circus” or “Holud Bani” might get selected instead.

Belarus- “Exclusion Zone” Despite political unrest and coronavirus, Belarus confirmed last week that it would be sending a film for the third year in a row (after a 22-year absence). Information about their film industry is pretty scarce but I predict they send “Exclusion Zone”, a thriller about secrets that are slowly revealed when a group of hikers accidentally enter the Chernobyl no-go zone. It was supposed to be the main Belarusian feature at their national Listapad Film Festival (which was canceled). Other options: comic documentary “Strip and War” (about the generation gap between a Soviet army veteran and his stripper grandson) and “1986” a drama made by a German director in Minsk.

Belgium- “Filles de joie” This wasn’t on my radar at all….but I can confirm it's a great little movie. 

Bhutan- “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” So happy to see Bhutan back in the race 21 years after their wonderful 1999 debut “The Cup”! Bhutan makes some great films (“Travellers & Magicians” is the best) and this film looks delightful.

Bolivia- “Santa Clara” I’m a little confused about the eligibility of a quartet of films. Drama “Karnawal” and feminist mountain climbing documentary “Cholitas” would be among the frontrunners but they have foreign directors from Argentina and Spain respectively. “Blood Red Ox” and “Pseudo” are by previously submitted directors but it’s unclear if they are finished and ready to screen (“Ox” is also largely in English). But Bolivia has four other options that are definitely eligible, namely sci-fi drama “Anomalia” (a Bolivian “Upload”?), 19^th century war drama “Chaco”, football drama “Fuertes” and western “Santa Clara” (which Bolivia elected to send to the Goyas). All four have middling ratings on IMDB. This is a tough race to predict. I want to predict “Pseudo” but because I don’t think it will be ready, I’m going for “Santa Clara”, with “Karnawal” the runner-up.

Bosnia-Herzegovina- “Quo Vadis, Aida?” Said to be a front-runner for a nomination, Bosnia was one of the first European countries to announce.

Brazil- “Memory House”  So Brazil announced that it would consider 19 films this year. Brazil has picked two Cannes premieres the past two years, and two Berlinale premieres in 2014-2015 (two commercial features were picked in between). Most people are predicting “Memory House” (Cannes), a quirky period drama about a black Brazilian man living amidst racial tensions in a mostly Austrian immigrant community. One reviewed called it “bizarre and ambitious”. I really don’t think this will do well with AMPAS but it’s not a very strong list and I’m not sure what else they would choose. Brazil was well-represented at pre-COVID Berlinale (one film in competition, two in Panorama, one in 14+ and one in Encounters) and three of them are on the list and somewhat competitive (“All the Dead Ones”, “Alice Junior” and “Shine Your Eyes”). There’s also the controversial biopic “Marighella”. Don’t let the 3.2 IMDB rating fool you. This film has gotten fairly strong reviews, but it is reviled by supporters of President Bolsonaro who accuse it of historical revisionism. If the committee wants to send an anti-government message, this could an option. I thought Brazil would select some new release that nobody had heard of yet but the list doesn’t have any shocking new releases. My prediction for the Top Five: “Memory House”, “Marighella”, transgender dramedy “Alice Junior”, “All the Dead Ones”, and experimental western “Sertania”.

Bulgaria- “The Father” A disappointing choice. I absolutely loved Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov’s last film- “Glory”- which deserved a first-ever nomination for Bulgaria three years ago. But although “The Father” has a great premise, it’s a far less accomplished and surprisingly dull film. I was going to predict “Rounds”.

Burkina Faso- “Djandjou” Burkina Faso tried to rejoin the Oscar race last year for the first time since 1989, with Apolline Traore’s “Desrances”. However, they were told that they had applied too late to get an Oscar committee approved and that they would be treated like a first-time entrant because it had been so long since they participated. Instead of wasting time defending the English-language “Lionheart”, Ava du Vernay would have done better to help out Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso releases of its top films in odd years (2019/2021/2023) because of the FESPACO Film Festival. They don’t have anything Oscar worthy but could send “Djandjou”, about a poor young man who falls in love with his boss. 

 

Cambodia- “Fathers” I predict the Kingdom of Cambodia will send “Fathers”, a drama about two fathers- one rich and the other living in dire poverty- trying to give a good life to their children. The film was produced specifically to raise money for a children’s hospital and so should garner some sympathetic votes from the Cambodian Academy. Of course, there’s also Oscar nominee Rithy Panh’s latest documentary- “Irradiated”- though that hasn’t been as acclaimed as some of his other work. 

 

Cameroon- “Innocent(e)” Cameroon hasn’t sent a film since 1980 but they technically do have French-language courtroom drama “Innocent”.

Canada- “Funny Boy” I wouldn’t have thought that Deepa Mehta’s Sri Lanka-set LGBT drama would be eligible because so much of it in English. But Canada should know what it’s doing.

Chad- The African country only submits when Mahamat-Saleh Haroun has a film….and not always even then. I really don’t think they have anything eligible.

 

Chile- “The Mole Agent” Chile has an exceptionally competitive race this year, with three films that I know of actively lobbying for the nomination- prison escape thriller “Jailbreak Pact” (Pacto de Fuga), musical drama “Lina from Lima” (Lina de Lima), and critical darling documentary “The Mole Agent” (El agente topo). But they’ve also got a bunch of great new LGBT films of which the strongest is “My Tender Matador” (Tengo miedo torero) by a previously submitted director, and a Cannes doc by an 80-year old auteur director (“Cordillera of Dreams”) who may be seen as overdue….And that’s only the top five in a hyper-competitive year. “The Mole Agent” went to the Goyas and is really gaining a lot of buzz. I think it’s peaking at the right time so that’s my prediction, followed by “My Tender Matador”

China- "The 800" China used to have a history of sending beautiful arthouse films but now they prefer quantity over quality. For the past three years, they have sent big box-office hits.....including action sequel "Wolf Warrior 2" which cannot really be said to be a good movie in any way other than stuntwork. Anyway, that means that movies like crime drama "Wild Goose Lake" (Cannes 2019) likely won't be considered. This is probably a race between the technological achievement of anti-Japan WWII epic "The 800" and the big-name recognition of Zhang Yimou and his new crime drama "Under the Light". As "The 800" is much bigger (and also has better reviews than "Wolf Warrior 2" or "Hidden Man") and boasts revolutionary IMAX effects, this (unfortunately) will be China's submission.  

Colombia- “Forgotten We’ll Be” Colombia announced a 9-film shortlist in October. Hmmm…..Let’s see…..The list includes four obscure documentaries (two aren’t even on IMDB), a comedy, a weird Antichrist horror drama, a period soap opera, and a low-budget experimental movie that looks like it was shot on home video.…..The final film is a well-reviewed new film by the Oscar-winning Spanish director of “Belle Epoque”, so it’s difficult to see Colombia choosing any movie on the list that isn’t “Forgotten We’ll Be” (El olvido que seremos), a drama set amidst three decades of Colombian conflict.

Congo DR- “Downstream to Kinshasa” Congo hasn’t sent a film since 1997 but if they were to return, it would surely be with documentary “Downstream to Kinshasa” (Toronto), about a theatrical troupe on a long journey to seek reparations for a brutal attack on their village.

Costa Rica- "Land of Ashes" My least favorite submission so far, I saw this in September because I expected it to be selected. 

Cote d’Ivoire- “Night of the Kings” They had an easy decision this year with Philippe LaCote’s sophomore effort about the life of a young thief

 

Croatia- "Extracurricular" I'm very excited to see this comedy-thriller, although I wouldn't have gotten it right. 

Cuba- “August” Cuba only submits about half the time but there’s a good chance they’ll submit coming-of-age drama “August” (Toronto) about a teenager growing up in the economically troubles 1990s when the Soviet Union collapsed and Cuba lost most of its foreign assistance and subsidies. The boy witnesses his neighbors trying to flee Cuba while trying to care for his irascible grandmother….all while going through the typical traumas of adolescence. Cuba sent “Buscanado a Casal”, a rather artsy “pretentious”costume drama about a revered poet Julian del Casal, to the Spanish Goya Awards. They could send that but it seems very unlikely to please American audience. Two other possible options: freewheeling comedy “Habana Selfies” will show a more positive side of Cuba (and Cuba got their only Oscar nom for a comedy-drama) and “Mambo Man” is a story about a man from the proletariat.  

Czech Republic- "Charlatan" They announced early with this Agnieszka Holland biopic of a traditional healer living during the Communist era.

Denmark- “Another Round” Denmark has made the semi-finals seven times in the past ten years (including five nominations and one win), probably the best record of any country in the world. They announced a three-film shortlist in October and are likely to continue their streak with acclaimed comedy-drama “Another Round” directed by Thomas Vintenberg starring Mads Mikkelsen (the same team behind the Oscar-nominated “The Hunt”). It’s about four friends who try an experiment to remain drunk at all times. The other two films- crime drama “Shorta” and transgender drama “A Perfectly Normal Family”- haven’t won any major awards and are way out of their league.

Dominican Republic- “A State of Madness” This is probably a two-way race between period dramas “A State of Madness”, set during the Trujillo dictatorship and “Hotel Coppelia” set during the 1965 U.S. invasion. Leticia Tonos, who has already been selected twice, will probably get chosen because “A State of Madness” has already premiered. The uber-prolific Jose Maria Cabral (age 32; has been selected three times since 2012) has “Coppelia”, about friends working in a brothel, which is completed but hasn’t premiered. It will probably be picked next year.

 

Ecuador- "Vacio" Ecuador was the first Latin American country to announce, with this Chinese-language human trafficking drama. 

Egypt-

Estonia- "The Last Ones" I wouldn't have even considered this one, as it's all in Finnish. 

Ethiopia- “Simet” Ethiopia doesn’t seem to have any international releases in Amharic this year (“Sweetness in the Belly” is almost entirely in English). I think they’ll skip this year, though they could decide to send “Simet”, a period piece about a dying king who takes his two sons with a mission that will decide which of them will ascend the throne.

Fiji- Nothing. Fiji submitted a film once in 2005 but they’re not going to send anything this year. 

Finland- “Dogs Don’t Wear Pants” Finland has a wide-open race with five equally likely contenders. “Any Day Now” is a topical drama about Iranian immigrants awaiting a decision on their asylum claim. “Dogs Don’t Wear Pants” is a quirky S+M drama that is the most well-known and which represented Finland at this year’s Nordic Film Prize. “Goodbye Soviet Union” is a fun comedy set in neighboring Estonia during the final days of the USSR, and would make a fun choice since Estonia selected a film in Finnish. “Life and Death” is a father-son drama by Klaus Haro, who has been selected to represent Finland four times, including Finland’s most recent shortlist spot in 2013. Last is frontrunner “Tove”, a biopic about the author of Finland’s acclaimed Moomins children’s books (which are not as well known in the USA as they are in Europe). All five stand a good chance but the Finnish Academy has shown a naughty indie streak the last few years so I think that “Dogs Don’t Wear Pants” will be the eventual nominee. With the Moomins a bit obscure for Americans, I rank “Any Day Now” in second place. 

France- "Gagarine" France narrowed things down last week to five films....Maiwenn's identity drama "DNA", lesbian romance "The Two of Us" and Ozon's gay 80s drama "Summer of 85" were widely expected to make the list. "Cuties", the Netflix drama that has caused controversy in the US for sexualizing minors, was not. But it's the surprise entry on the list- urban coming-of-age drama "Gagarine"- which seems most likely to represent France this year. Unfortunately, that's mostly because the others have problems....."Cuties" is extremely divisive and powerhouse France wants a nomination. "Summer of '85" is not universally loved. "The Two of Us" is too small. Maiwenn's "DNA" was long the official frontrunner but it has lost steam and Maiwenn has made some controversial remarks about sexual harassment. "Gagarine" has solid reviews, no controversy and topical subject matter.  It's the new frontrunner, with "DNA" in second. 

Georgia- "Beginning" This was always the clear frontrunner on their three-film shortlist. 

Germany- "And Tomorrow the Entire World" This was quite a surprise. I expected they'd probably send Caroline Link's new film.  

Ghana- "Gold Coast Lounge" Though Ghana and Nigeria are multi-lingual, most of their big national releases are in English to ensure that they can be viewed throughout the country. Last year, we saw that Ghana understood the Oscar rules while Nigeria did not. This year, Ghana is likely to send "Gold Coast Lounge" a stylish B+W film noir about a family running an illegal club in the capital. 

Greece- "Apples" Yet another quirky comedy from Greece, this time about a bizarre global pandemic (made before COVID!)

Greenland- “The Fight for Greenland” Greenland no longer has an active selection committee (the territory of 60,000 people sent films in 2010 and 2012) but if they decided to form another, they could send “The Fight for Greenland” a documentary about Greenlandic youth and their views for the future of their country.

Guatemala- "La Llorona" This was the obvious frontrunner on their three-film shortlist though it's great that they had three qualified, well-reviewed films to send! It's a great film. 

Haiti- “Overtures” They’ve only submitted once (in 2017) and I doubt they’ll enter this yer. If they do, it could be “Ouvertures”, a Berlinale documentary about a Haitian artists collective translating a French play about Haiti’s founding father Toussaint L’Ouverture into Creole. 

Honduras- “90 Minutes” The front-runner from Honduras is clearly “90 Minutes”, an entertaining film with four separate stories of men dealing with modern (and violent) Honduran society, all tied together with the Honduran obsession for futbol.

Hong Kong- "Better Days"

Hungary- “Final Report” While I’d love to predict Hungary will go with a wild and crazy choice like gonzo vampire comedy “Comrade Drakulich” (which won four awards at Hungarian Film Week), they’re almost certainly going to honor 82-year old Istvan Szabo who netted Communist Hungary four Oscar nominations (and one win) between 1980 and 1988. “Final Report”, an old-fashioned drama about a village doctor and very possibly Szabo’s final film. If the unenthusiastic reviews for that film make them want to choose something else, it will probably be Communist-era drama “The Inventor” (by a previously submitted director) or Transylvanian murder mystery “Valan: Valley of Angels”, a co-production with neighboring Romania.

 

Iceland- “Echo” This seems to be a two-way rematch between the two main contenders for the 2020 Edda Awards- Runa Runarsson’s “Echo” and Silja Hauksdottir’s “Agnes Joy”. “Agnes Joy”, about the relationship between a harried mother and her adopted daughter, won the Edda Award but “Echo”, an artsy series of vignettes about Iceland at Christmastime, has better reviews internationally. Runarsson has an Oscar nod for Best Short Film under his belt, but progressive Iceland hasn’t chosen a woman director since 1999 (surely the longest of any Western European country???). So it’s going to be close. I’m a big fan of Iceland’s quirky comedies and I’d love if they surprised everyone with a film about gay vampires (“Thirst”), welfare fraudsters (“The Garden”), elderly bank robbers (“Amma Hofi”) or the Hangover-esque antics of drunken friends (“The Last Fishing Trip”)…..but it’s pretty certain to be one of those two dramas.

India- 

Indonesia- "Impetigore"

Iran- "Children of the Sun"

Iraq- “Haifa Street” Iraq submitted films every year from 2014-2018 but took last year off even though they did have at least one eligible film. Most of their submissions are Kurdish films and their annual Duhok Film Festival for Kurdish cinema was cancelled this year due to COVID. I know of two films they could send- drama “Haifa Street” and documentary “The Fifth Story”, both of with focus on the wars of the 2000s. I think “Haifa Street” (Cairo, Busan), about a man on his way to propose to his fiancée and the sniper who shoots him in central Baghdad, has the edge. 

Ireland- “Monster” (Arracht) Few countries have an easier decision than Ireland, which is sure to send Irish Potato Famine drama “Monster”, one of a very small number of Irish-language feature films made in the country (though they produce plenty of Irish-language television programs). This year it was the Irish-language film to be nominated for Best Picture at the Irish Film Awards in years.

Israel- "Asia" The winner of this year's Ophir Award for Best Picture. 

Italy- “The Life Ahead” Italy announced that 25 films had registered to be represent Italy at the Oscars but really only a few have any chance of being selected. I’m pretty sure that Italy will go with starpower and choose Sophia Loren’s “The Life Ahead” which has the backing of Netflix and which has been touted as a frontrunner for Best Actress. Reviews have been okay….but with plenty of room for improvement.  This film, about a Holocaust survivor who befriends a child thief/refugee, is a remake of “Madame Rosa” which won this award for France decades ago. For starpower, they also have Dustin Hoffman who co-stars in “Into the Labyrinth”….but that film hasn’t been so well-received. Three previous Oscar-nominated directors are also in the mix- Gianfranco Rosi (Doc nominee “Fire At Sea”) has refugee documentary “Notturno”, Cristina Comencini (who somehow was nominated for Best Foreign Film for the forgettable “Don’t Tell”) has “Tornare”, about a woman trying to remember a tragedy that occurred years before, and Gabriele Salvatores (Oscar winner for “Mediterraneo”) has “All My Crazy Love” about a boy trying to reconnect with the father he never knew. All of these seem unlikely this year (their IMDB ratings are in the high ‘5’s). A lot of other people are talking about Matteo Garrone’s retelling of “Pinocchio”. Roberto Benigni (and Italy) were lambasted 18 years ago when the middle-aged actor played Pinocchio and submitted the film to the Oscars (the English dub was terrible but the Italian version really wasn’t bad at all) and Benigni now plays Gepetto in the new version. I don’t think Italy wants to go there again but Garrone has been picked twice before and many people are predicting this. I love black comedy and I’m a big fan of the prolific Ferzan Ozpetek (who enters the race for Italy nearly every year but has never been picked), so I’d love to see “Bad Tales”, “The Predators” or “The Goddess of Fortune” considered. But I think this is “The Life Ahead”’s to lose. I predict “Bad Tales” in second place, Salvatores’ “Crazy Love” in third and upcoming Netflix comedy “Rose Island”, about an Italian man who declares an independent nation, in fourth. 

Japan- "True Mothers" They went with Kawase's new film even though her movies are always better received internationally than at home. 

Jordan- "200 Meters" They picked "200 Meters" which I had assumed would be in the running for Palestine, not Jordan. 

Kazakhstan- “The Crying Steppe” Last year, Kazakhstan had a competitive race but ended up selecting an obscure costume drama that appears to have been re-edited into a TV series instead of released in cinemas. The Kazakhs are at their best when they send more intimate stories, and that’s what has gotten them shortlisted twice in the past ten years. In the past ten years, they’ve sent three films by Akan Satayev and three by Ermek Tursunov so they definitely play favorites. Satyev has the biggest film of the year so far- “The Legend of Tomiris”, another big splashy costume drama, this time about a warrior queen, which already has a US release on Amazon. That makes it the obvious front-runner. Most people are predicting arthouse darling Adilkhan Yerzhanov for “Yellow Cat” (Venice) which would probably be a great choice….but he has been a favorite before, and Kazakhstan has never picked him. Ultimately, I think Kazakhstan will choose upcoming historical drama “The Crying Steppe”, about one family trying to survive a little-known Soviet-engineered famine that killed half the country.  It’s timed to be released at the end of the year and submitting it to the Oscars would boost the film. Marina Kunarova is likely to be the first Central Asian woman ever to be selected for the International Oscar competition. Expect Queen “Tomiris” to finish second.

Kenya- "The Letter" They selected a documentary for the first time. 

Korea- "The Man Standing Next" After winning the Oscar last year, Korea had a pretty quiet year. They announced a 13-film shortlist over the summer which included a K-pop musical, an alien horror-comedy, a legal drama about a sexual assault on an elderly woman, and a thriller starring Kim Yun-jin ("Lost"). But they decided to select one of the least interesting options- the political intrigue of "The Man Standing Next". 

Kosovo- "Exile"- They picked this before I made my predictions. I'll see it in December. 

Kyrgyzstan- “Shambala” Year after year, Kyrgyzstan produces some of the loveliest Oscar submissions but they never ever get nominated. This year, they have three new dramas they could contend to represent the country, namely “The Road to Eden” (Tallinn Black Nights), about a dying writer seeking to protect his legacy, and rural dramas “Running to the Sky” (Busan 2019) and “Shambala” (Shanghai).  The Abdykalykov family has made 5 of Kyrgyzstan’s 12 submissions which bodes well for coming-of-age drama “Running to the Sky”, though I think they may have to sit this year out. I predict “Shambala”, mostly because it’s based on a beloved national work by the country’s most famous author, who discussed plans for the film with the director before his death in 2008. “Road to Eden” is a very, very close second.

Kuwait- “In Paradox” Kuwait submitted two films in the 1970s but has been absent ever since….longer than any other country. If they chose to return this year, they could send “In Paradox”, a surreal dreamy thriller about a man plagued by mysterious visions and unknown memories….but that seems highly unlikely.

Laos- “The Long Walk” Lao-American director Mattie Do helped coax Laos to the Oscars with the delightfully creepy horror flick “Dearest Sister”, one of the most entertaining of the Oscar submissions in 2017. She’s back this year with “The Long Walk”, an odd time travel fantasy that played at Venice Days in 2019. I think Laos is likely to enter.

Latvia- “The Sign Painter” Latvia has its most competitive race in years, with three films that ordinarily would be a default nominee. “Blizzard of Souls” is a big-budget nationalist World War I epic that broke box office records. “Oleg” is a critical darling with a topical subject (immigration) that has played at numerous festivals over the past year, including Best Picture at the 2019 Latvian Film Awards and the Brussels Film Festival. But I think this is going to “The Sign Painter”, a tragicomedy about the events of the mid-20^th century (WWII and the Soviet occupation of independent Latvia) seen through the eyes of a young artist. The director was selected once before and its main rival “Blizzard” has gotten far weaker reviews internationally than among patriots at home. Last night’s Latvian Film Awards had “Blizzard” defeating “Sign Painter” and underdog comedy “What Silence Gerda Knows” for the top award.

Lebanon- "All This Victory" Fresh off its Audience Award in Venice, Lebanon seems likely to send “All This Victory”, about the 2006 war with Israel (last year they sent a film about their 1982 war with Israel). This seems like a lock to me. 

Lithuania- “Isaac” Lithuania has three period dramas contending to represent the country, all with their pluses and minuses. Sharunas Bartas’ “In the Dusk” (set in 1949) has the festival pedigree- it was selected for Cannes (which was canceled) and San Sebastian. But nobody likes Bartas’ heavy-handed films. The quirky B&W “Nova Lituania” (set in 1939) is an alternative history in which a geographer plans to move the people of Lithuania to a new colony to avoid German/Soviet occupation. But the film requires some general knowledge about Lithuania that Americans are unlikely to have. Last is the much-delayed “Isaac” (I predicted it two years ago) set in 1941 and also in B+W, about a Lithuanian man’s guilt over the murder of a Jewish Lithuanian named Isaac. It has the best reviews and is the most accessible, but may not please Lithuanians who see themselves as a WWII victim. I’m predicting the reviews catapult “Isaac” to the top of the heap. “Isaac” and “Nova Lituania” are competing against each other (and three other films at the Lithuanian Silver Crane Awards, due to be held sometime before the end of the year. 

Luxembourg- "River Tales" 

Macedonia- “Willow”  Director Milcho Manchevski got Macedonia their first Oscar nod for “Before the Rain” and the small Balkan republic has selected all his subsequent Macedonian-language films to go to the Oscars. Therefore, it’s difficult to see Macedonia choosing anything other than his new film “Willow” about the lives of three Macedonian women at different points in history seeking to become mothers.  Variety called it “powerful, evocative and beautifully played” and it’s certain to be the national submission, despite other well-reviewed films like “Grandfather and Grandson” 

Malawi- “Fatsani: Tale of Survival” Malawi was an unexpected debutante two years ago. The only film I know of this year is “Fatsani”, about the life of a young girl from an impoverished family. It’s a mixture of English and Chichewa but, based on the trailer, probably has too much English to qualify. 

Malaysia- "Roh" There are signs that they are going to submit more regularly from now on. 

Malta- Nothing. Tiny Malta submitted a film once in 2014 but haven’t entered since despite a number of Maltese-language features in the late 2010s. I don’t think they have anything eligible this year. The Valletta Film Festival was canceled, the erotic drama “Merjen” on IMDB is actually a TV mini-series and noir thriller “Vanishing Wake” is finished but hasn’t been released yet.

Mauritania- Nothing. Though they got an Oscar nomination for the wonderful “Timbuktu” in 2015, they haven’t had another international release since.

Mexico- "Ya no estoy qui"

Moldova- “Baptism” Last year was Moldova’s fifth year absent from the Oscars and I believe that means they have to apply again to form a committee. That’s a shame because they actually have a strong contender this year, namely “Baptism” about a long-suffering wife who returns from working abroad to find that her abusive husband has started a new family with a new wife with her remittances.

Mongolia- “Veins of the World” It would be silly to bet against Byambasuren Davaa’s new film (her first in eleven years), the director of “Story of the Weeping Camel”, and Mongolia’s only Oscar nominee. Like her other films, “Veins” is about a family living in the remote steppe and their culture clash between traditional life and modernity. In this film, a YouTube and TV-obsessed 11-year old from a nomadic family is forced to grow up quickly when his father dies in an accident. Davaa is based in Germany and they didn’t send her last film. So it’s possible they may send one of their four premieres from the Ulaanbaatar Film Festival (“Khokho”, “Black Milk”, “The Woman” and “Gergiy”) or large-scale historical drama “Marked Man”, about a WWII battle against Japan. I think “Veins” should get this easily, but “Khokho” is the one to beat if they want something more local.

Montenegro- “Reach the Sky” As I see it, tiny Montenegro has two eligible films about illness- “Breasts” (Grudi) about a group of four friends who come together when one of them is diagnosed with cancer, and “Reach the Sky” (Dohvati Nebo), about a man whose wife is paralyzed in an accident. I think “Sky” has the edge.

Morocco- “The Unknown Saint” Morocco seems to have a wide-open race this year. In the running are “The Unknown Saint”, the only Moroccan feature in competition at Marrakech, “Autumn of the Apple Trees”, which won the Tangier Film Festival (beating “Unknown Saint” and last year’s nominee “Adam”), “Zanka Contact”, which won Best Actress at Venice Horizons, and “Sand and Fire” which has not made a blip at any festivals but which is directed by Soheil Ben Barka, who came out of retirement to make it and who directed Morocco’s first-ever submission in the 1970s. I think this will go to “Saint” simply because it has the best overall reviews. It’s an absurdist comedy about a thief who returns to claim his long-buried treasure only to find that the place where he buried it is now the site of a holy shrine. If not “Saint”, count on “Autumn”, about a young village boy whose mother has disappeared and whose father disowned him. 

Mozambique- Nothing. Mozambique sent a film once in 2017. They had a very good option last year (“Redemption” which just became the first-ever Mozambican film on Netflix) but didn’t send it, so I really don’t see them having any contenders in 2020.