Better Late Than Never, Foreign Oscar Predictions N-Z

In progress....

Nepal- “Aama” Nepal announced two finalists for their submission, so this a 50-50 pick. I think “Aama”, a rather routine family melodrama, will get the nod because it has a Nepali director and because it looks like the other movies that Nepal has picked over the years. The other choice- “Sarita”- an odd musical docudrama featuring ethnic Nepali refugees from Bhutan living in a Nepalese camp- would probably be a smarter choice. But it’s an unusual little film and it has an Italian director so it may be less likely to be chosen.

Netherlands- "Bulado"- I was pretty sure they were going to pick "My Best Friend Anne Frank" 

New Zealand- NOTHING I’ve researched this and I don’t think New Zealand has any fiction films or documentaries that are in languages other than English. I can’t find a single film that is mostly in Maori or any other language. Last year, they had an excellent choice (“Vai”) that they didn’t send so it seems pretty certain they will skip this year.

Nicaragua- “La hija de todas las rabias” Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010 and they produce very few films. At this year’s Latin American Film Festival in Washington, they were the only Latin country not represented. They do have a new fiction feature in development- “La hija de todas las rabies”- about an impoverished little girl who lives at a garbage dump. It won a few awards “in development” at San Sebastian so perhaps we’ll see it in the competition next year.

Niger- “Tenere” Niger submitted a film just once in 2018. Although it’s unlikely they’ll send a film, they do have documentary “Tenere”. Directed by Turkish journalist Hasan Soylemez, this Hausa-language doc follows the journey of would-be migrants trying to cross the barren deserts of Niger on the way to the Mediterranean and Europe.

Nigeria- “Citation” So, Nigeria submitted a film for the first time last year (“Lionheart”) which was mostly in English. Austria also submitted a movie about Nigerian prostitutes living in Vienna which was disqualified for the same reason. “Lionheart” director Genevieve Nnaji and Ava du Vernay whined about colonialism, seemingly unable to comprehend that Kenya, Pakistan, Canada, South Africa and other British colonies all managed to find movies that weren’t in English. This year, AMPAS made the odd determination that films in “Pidgin English” can qualify. In my opinion, the Austrian film (“Joy”) would have qualified last year as Pidgin, but “Lionheart” was still in fairly standard English. Does having a Nigerian accent make it Pidgin? I think not, and AMPAS is likely to regret the decision. Nigeria is likely to want to send “This is My Desire”, which was nominated for Best First Feature at Berlinale, or “Citation”, a sexual harassment thriller currently available on Netflix. Based solely on their trailers, both of these films are mostly in standard English (with a Nigerian accent), though “Citation” clearly has some dialogue in French and local languages. If you want to her what real Pidgin English sounds like, try watching the trailer of “The Lost Okoroshi”, a low-budget Nigerian comedy that played at Toronto which would qualify if submitted.  Ultimately, I think Nigeria will send “This is My Desire” and get disqualified again. “Citation”, which is at least partially in French, will have a better chance, as would missing child drama “The Ghost and the House of Truth”.

Norway- "Hope" This was one of the easiest decisions for any European country and I predicted this would win. Cancer drama "Hope" easily defeated poorly reviewed drama "Disco" and weird documentary "Self Portrait", which were also on the shortlist.

Pakistan- "Zindagi Tamasha" (except it can't because of crazy religious people😡)- UPDATE on December 8th- I'm so happy Pakistan picked this. "Zindagi Tamasha" (aka "Circus of Life") was scheduled to be released in early 2020 until a crazy, fanatic religious party began threatening the director and cinemas. The film cleared Pakistani's notoriously fussy censorship board both before and after the controversy, and said the film can be released. But safety concerns and then COVID-19 made that difficult. Thankfully, the special Oscar rules this year mean that the film doesn't actually need to have screened. Pakistan's committee made a very brave decision to send this film!  

Palestine- "Gaza mon amour"

Panama- "Operacion Causa Justa"

Paraguay- “Nothing But the Sun” Paraguay’s committee met last year and elected not to send a film to the Oscars or the Goyas, but they have two strong contenders this year. Thriller “Killing the Dead” is going to the 2021 Goyas. It’s about two gravediggers who bury victims of the Stroessner dictatorship in the 1970s, and the moral dilemma they face when one of the corpses turns out to still be alive. Documentary “Nothing but the Sun” is the latest from Arami Ullon (who directed the first-ever Paraguayan submission in 2015), following an elderly man from a dying Native American tribe (the Ayoreo; population 5000) who goes on a final journey. I think Paraguay will spread the wealth….Since “Killing” is going to Spain, “Sun” will go to Hollywood.

Peru- "Song Without A Name"

Philippines- "Mindanao"

Poland- "Never Gonna Snow Again" Poland was the first country to select a film this year. 

Portugal- "Listen"

Puerto Rico- “Yerba Buena” Puerto Rico was unfairly uninvited from the Oscar competition in late 2010 after over two decades of sending films, including one nomination. Ironically, Greenland which has a similar status vis-à-vis Denmark was invited the same year. I still include Puerto Rico in my predictions for when they are finally invited back. This year, they would probably send “Yerba Buena”, a comedy about three women who go into the medical marijuana business after Hurricane Maria hits the island.

Romania- "Collective"

Russia- "Dear Comrades"

Saudi Arabia- “The Last Visit” They’ve only sent three films in the past seven years but cinemas were allowed to re-open in 2018 and the country has had a resurgent film industry (although COVID caused them to be temporarily closed again). Whereas they used to produce only one film every few years, they now have a competitive race. I think father-son drama “The Last Visit” (Karlovy Vary, Marrakech), about a road trip to visit a dying relative, will be selected. Other options include comedy “The Sun of Gnosis” and mystery-thriller “Zero Distance”.

Senegal- “Nafi’s Father” Senegal has submitted twice and made the Oscar shortlist twice. This year, they’ll almost surely be trying for a third spot with “Nafi’s Father” (Locarno 2019) a family drama about how Islamic extremism is influencing and damaging modern Senegalese society. It’s definitely one to watch.

Serbia- “Father” Last year, Serbia chose a nationalist period piece of little interest to Americans (“King Petar I”) over an acclaimed drama (“Stitches”). What will they do this year when the race is between nationalist period piece “The Name of the People” and acclaimed drama “Father”? Both directors have been selected before. Assuming both films are submitted (directors have to submit their films to be considered), I predict “Father” will get this because of its Class A festival play (two awards at Berlinale 2020) and the fact that director Srdan Golubovic is the only Serbian director to make it to the semifinals since the fall of Yugoslavia. His “The Trap” made the shortlist and was miles better than any of the final five nominees. Custody drama “Father” could be another threat for the shortlist.

Singapore- "Wet Season"

Sri Lanka- “The Other Half” They haven’t entered since 2009 and realistically they probably won’t send anything but they do have quite a few good options. Several of their arthouse films that never got a cinematic release could benefit from the looser screening requirements this year, e.g. “House of My Fathers” (Busan 2018, which I predicted last year) and Tamil-language “Soundless Dance”. There’s also disaster drama “Tsunami”, and “The Newspaper”, about a family ostracized by their community is falsely accused of being a suicide bomber. But for the sake of completion, I’ll guess “The Other Half”, about a poor village whose water well has been poisoned by agricultural chemicals.

Suriname- “Suriname” AMPAS approved an Oscar selection committee in the tiny Dutch-speaking country of Suriname for the first time this year….and I really don’t know why. Suriname doesn’t really have a film industry and I can’t imagine why they asked for it. Assuming they plan to submit a film, perhaps they want to send the eponymous crime drama “Suriname”, a majority Dutch production filmed in Suriname, about a presidential candidate trying to hide his criminal past. Or maybe they want to send documentary “The Stones Have Laws”, about the remote Maroon tribe, descended from escaped slaves. Both have Dutch directors. Will they even be eligible?

Syria- “9 Days at Raqqa” Syria submitted an anti-Assad documentary in the middle of the civil war in 2017. It’s my understanding that they appealed to the Academy for an exception to the screening requirement due to the war and were allowed to enter. “9 Days at Raqqa”, a documentary about a Syrian Kurdish woman who joins the armed resistance was supposed to premiere in the Docs section at Cannes 2020. It’s a majority French production with a French director and crew so I’m not sure it would be eligible. They also have “Between Two Brothers” (Cairo), a fiction film about two brothers who take opposite sides during the war, but the director’s pro-regime sympathies would likely prevent it from being chosen.

Tajikistan- Nothing. Tajikistan hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2005 and I don’t know of any films that are eligible. The first Dushanbe International Film Festival was supposed to take place in Spring 2020 where it would have a National Film section, but it was canceled.

Tanzania- “My Village” Tanzania hasn’t sent a film since 2001 but they could send Swahili-language family drama “My Village” (Kijiji Changu) about two friends growing up in a small village.

Thailand- “Nemesis” Thailand is harder to predict this year, with the National Film Awards canceled and the country facing a great deal of politufal unrest. I see four main possibilities: (1) “The Cave”, a dramatization of the Thai schoolboys who attracted global headlines when they were trapped in a cave by a flash flood, “Happy Old Year”, a romantic drama with good reviews about a woman pining for her ex,  “Krabi 2562”, a documentary about the ordinary people living away from the city’s famous tourist trade, and “Nemesis”, an action-thriller about a man seeking vengeance against the criminals who killed his family. Thailand is not afraid of genre films- romantic soap operas, docudramas and thrillers (as well as horror films and comedies) have all represented the country recently. “The Cave” would win this easily if reviews were better (The Hollywood Reporter compared it to a Lifetime movie). Indie filmmaker Anocha Suwichakornpong (“Krabi”) was just picked three years ago so will they want to spread the wealth? The directors of “The Cave” and “Happy Old Year” were front-runners to rep Thailand (“The Last Executioner” and “Heart Attack”) but weren’t picked, so will Thailand consider them owed? Ultimately, I think “Nemesis” looks like the sort of movie Thailand likes so it’s my guess with the familiar story of “The Cave” in second place. 

Uganda- “Kemi” Uganda formed an Oscar committee last year but ultimately decided not to send a film. They’ve launched an open call again this year but I’m not sure what they would send. Their big movie of the year- stylish kidnapping thriller “The Girl in the Yellow Jumper”- appears to be mostly in English. There are two releases I know about that are partially in African languages- “Kemi” and “November Tear”, although the latter doesn’t look like its production values are good enough. The director of “Kemi”, about a woman who regrets her decision to give up her child, helped found last year’s committee so that’s my guess.

UAE- “Chromosome” The United Arab Emirates former an Oscar selection committee in 2017 but they have not sent a film the past three years they were eligible. I hear that last year it didn’t even meet. They’ve said they don’t want to send a movie unless it’s a strong contender. I don’t think they will enter but their best bet is probably action-thriller “Chromosome”.

UK- "Limbo"

Uruguay- “The Champion of the World” Uruguay doesn’t have much to choose from this year so I’ll think they’ll pip for the well-reviewed documentary “Champion of the World”, about an ex-world champion bodybuilder who has retired and returned to his small town. Uruguay has shortlisted documentaries in the past but never chosen one, and this would seem to be a good year. Two other possibilities: Political thriller “The Year of Fury” is a Spanish co-production with a Spanish director but it’s about life in Uruguay prior to the 1973 military coup. If it is sufficiently “Uruguayan” it will likely be selected. But Uruguay, more than any Academy in the world, prefers comedies. So, they could also choose family comedy “Aleli” about three siblings fighting over an inheritance.

Uzbekistan- “2000 Songs of Farida” Uzbekistan submitted for the first time last year with teen melodrama “Hot Bread” and they’ve made things easier this year by announcing a three-film shortlist- early 20^th century period biopic “Ibrat” and two family dramas starring women- “Colorless Dreams” and “2000 Songs of Farida”. “Farida”, set in 1920, is about a traditional man whose family life is disrupted by the arrival of a fourth wife and of Communist rule in Central Asia. It’s the only one to play at a major film festival (Busan) and should be considered the frontrunner. However, “Colorless Dreams”, the only contemporary drama in the mix has the same star as last year’s “Hot Bread” as well as the same melodramatic style of filmmaking. It’s about a woman who has recently been released from prison. Here’s hoping Uzbekistan continues in the race!

Vietnam- "Rom"

Yemen- Nothing. War-torn Yemen has sent two films recently but I don’t think they have anything eligible this year.