FINAL PREDICTIONS

FRONTRUNNERS

1. IRAN, “A Hero”

2. DENMARK, “Flee”

3. NORWAY, “The Worst Person in the World”

4. ITALY, “Hand of God”, B+

5. AUSTRIA, “Great Freedom”

6. JAPAN, “Drive My Car”

7. FINLAND, “Compartment No. 6”

PREDICTED TOP 15

8. SPAIN, “The Good Boss”, A-

9. LEBANON, “Costa Brava, Lebanon"

10. MEXICO, “Prayers for the Stolen”

11. GEORGIA, “Brighton 4^th”

12. LATVIA, “The Pit”

13. CANADA, “Drunken Birds”

14. CHINA, “Cliff Walkers”

15 . MALTA, “Luzzu” (This one is one of my favorites….but I know it’s a long shot) A-

ALTERNATES:

16. RUSSIA, “Unclenching the Fists"

17. JORDAN, “Amira” (yes, I know that the Royal Jordanian Film Commission asked to withdraw it…but AMPAS has traditionally denied requests by countries to withdraw films for political reasons), B+

18. GERMANY, “I’m Your Man”, B+

19. ISRAEL- "Let It Be Morning",A

20. CHAD, “Lingui”

21. ALGERIA, “Heliopolis”, B+

22. BELGIUM, “Playground”

23. CZECH REPUBLIC, “Zatopek”

24. IRAQ, “Europa”

25. ROMANIA, “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”

LONG SHOTS

26. COSTA RICA, “Clara Sola”

27. PALESTINE, “The Stranger”

28. KOSOVO, “Hive”, B+

29. SWEDEN, “Tigers”

30. SOUTH AFRICA, “Barakat”

31. FRANCE, “Titane” (I really do not think this will be on the list….) B

32. PANAMA, “Plaza Catedral”

33. BANGLADESH, “Rehana”

34. BHUTAN, “Lunana, A Yak in the Classroom”, A-

35.   SOMALIA, “The Gravedigger’s Wife”

36. CHILE, “Blanco en blanco”, B-

37. TURKEY, “Commitment Hasan”

38. AUSTRALIA, “When Pomegranates Howl”, B+

39. COLOMBIA- "Memoria"

40. POLAND- "Leave No Traces"

I haven’t forgotten “Lamb”….I just don’t think it's a serious contender. 

OSCAR SUBMISSIONS- The Films from the Middle East and Africa (18 films)

The list is scheduled to come out tomorrow, so here's a brief, rushed overview of the films from The Middle East and Africa

FAVORITES:

1. IRAN- "A Hero"

In a Nutshell: A man imprisoned for an unpaid debt tries to settle his case during two days of home leave. 

Pros: Oscar loves Asghar Farhadi, Also, his films are invariably great. Grand Prix at Cannes. Well-timed cinematic release. Strong reviews. 

Cons: With two Oscars already, will they feel they've rewarded him enough? "A Past" was an early favorite but failed to be shortlisted. 

2. LEBANON- "Costa Brava, Lebanon" 

In A Nutshell: An urban family relocates from Beirut to start a new life on their own in a remote mountainous area. 

Pros: Those who have seen it say the film is total Oscar bait. Nadine Labaki is well-liked. The film has managed to win awards in both the Middle East and Western countries. 

Cons: Reviews are strong, but are they strong enough to advance to the next round? 

STRONG POSSIBILITIES: 

3. JORDAN- "Amira"

In a Nutshell: A young woman idolizes her father, who has been imprisoned for life on charges of terrorism against the Israeli government. When a medical test indicates he is unlikely to be her biological father, the film becomes a mystery, a thriller and an intense family drama. 

Pros: An intriguing mystery that keeps you guessing, a strong lead performance from the teenaged Amira, and parallels with "Omar", which got a surprise Oscar nod in 2014. 

Cons: In December, Jordan asked AMPAS to withdraw the film from consideration. In the past, AMPAS has rejected such politically motivated requests and hopefully they will keep the film in consideration. 

4. IRAQ- "Europa" 

In a Nutshell: An Iraqi asylum seeker tries to reach Europe via the forests of Bulgaria where he faces off against local mercenaries. 

Pros: Strong reviews....Audiences have reportedly been deeply moved....The film features a very topical subject. 

Cons:  At 75 minutes, this is one of the shortest entries and it may feel too spare..... It's one of two films about migrants on the Bulgarian border (see "Fear"). The gritty, low-budget, cinema verite style doesn't usually do well with Oscar. 

5. CHAD- "Lingui"

In a Nutshell: A religious mother must decide whether to help her pregnant 15-year old daughter obtain an illegal abortion. 

Pros: Strongest contender from the African continent. Baity topic. Just made the National Board of Review’s Top Six foreign films of the year (alongside France, Iceland, Norway and winner “A Hero” from Iran). 

Cons: A quiet film from an unknown country has an uphill battle. I haven’t seen “Lingui” yet but Haroun’s films demand patience. 

DARK HORSES

6. PALESTINE- "The Stranger"

In a Nutshell: A doctor in the Golan Heights treats a Syrian fighter who has somehow crossed the impenetrable border.

Pros: Excellent reviews at Venice.

Cons: No real buzz. One of the lesser-known entries this year. 

7. ISRAEL- "Let It Be Morning"

In a Nutshell: An Arab-Israeli family from Jerusalem go to a village wedding during which Israeli forces blockade the road back to their home indefinitely. 

Bottom Line: The film represents a second chance at the Oscars for director Eran Kolirin,  whose "The Band's Visit" was disqualified for featuring too much English. It's a really wonderful satire that manages to be funny and serious. Its one of my personal favorites and it definitely deserves to be in the Top 15. While I expect it will do well, probably not quite well enough to advance. 

8. ALGERIA- "Heliopolis"

In a Nutshell: Set in colonial Algeria during the 1940s, French settlers brutally repress both Algerian independence fighters and pro-French Algerians.  

Bottom Line: This is a gorgeously shot period piece with beautiful sets, authentic costumes and impressive crowd scenes. Reminds me of a Bouchareb film, and he got three Oscar nods. While Algerians will know how everything turns out, I think the Algerian politics will go over the heads of most American audiences. This will do well though likely not make the finals. 

9. SOUTH AFRICA- "Barakat"

In a Nutshell: An aging Muslim widow with four sons reunites the family for Eid, where she plans to tell them of her new romance. 

Bottom Line: Filmed in a distinctive local dialect of Afrikaans, this comedy-drama is supposed to be a real breath of fresh air in South African cinema. Comedies and films in dialect don't always translate, but this is one film that I'm really hoping does well. 

MIDDLE OF THE PACK: 

10. SOMALIA- "Gravedigger's Wife"

In a Nutshell: Set in the African nation of Djibouti, an ethnic Somali gravedigger and his wife desperately try to earn money to fund her medical treatment. 

Bottom Line: This looks like a really excellent film and it’s gotten very good reviews but similar small African family dramas like Sudan’s “I Will Die at 20” have failed to make the next round. I would love for this to surprise. 

11. TURKEY- “Commitment Hasan”

 

In a Nutshell: A man goes on a quixotic quest to remove a state electricity pole from his land 

Bottom Line: Reviews have been all over the place; some say it’s great and some say it’s terrible. Film is overlong. The previous film in Kaplanoglu’s “Commitment” trilogy was awful. 

12. TUNISIA- "Golden Butterfly"

In a Nutshell: A hard-nosed cop is entrusted with the care of a mute boy who is going blind. However, this is described as a fantasy-drama rather than a crime drama/ 

 

Bottom Line: This is supposed to be a really interesting, unusual albeit flawed film. In its review, Variety called it “ambitious but uneven” all the while comparing the visual style to “Pans Labyrinth” and Fellini. I’m excited to see it although this kind of unusual genre-defying film probably isn’t strong enough to score here…Though Tunisia managed last year! 

 13. EGYPT- "Souad"

In a Nutshell: A 17-year old girl obsessed with social media provides an unusual link between her younger sister and an older, male influencer. 

Bottom Line: This is an interesting little film but not one that can expect to advance. Some reviews are mixed. I definitely had some unanswered questions, although that was likely intentional. This would be a great double feature with the Macedonian film.  

14. SAUDI ARABIA- "Tambour of Retribution"

In a Nutshell: A period drama about the forbidden romance between a man from a warrior family and a woman from a family of musicians and entertainers. 

Bottom Line: Though the film got a Netflix deal, I've heard this film may be a little too "local" to get through. I'm waiting to see it with a Saudi friend in January so I can't comment directly. 

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR

15. MOROCCO- "Casablanca Beats"

In a Nutshell: Moroccan girls in a disadvantaged neighborhood learn to express themselves through rap and hip-hop. 

Bottom Line: Rap and hip/hop are hard to translate (see "Gully Boy") and the film has some of the weakest critical reviews on the list. Kino Lorber is pushing it but it’s not good enough.

16. CAMEROON- "Hidden Dreams"

In a Nutshell: A Western-educated Cameroonian official is sent to a small village where he clashes with local customs.  

Bottom Line: One of the most obscure films on the list, this low-budget feature is here to represent and promote the country's cinema, but isn't likely to be an Oscar contender. 

17. MALAWI- "Fatsani: Tale of Survival"

In a Nutshell: A little girl is forced to work as a banana seller when her school closes down. 

Bottom Line: Like the Cameroonian film, “Fatsani” is a small, low-budget mainly here to represent the country on the world stage….if it’s not disqualified for having too much English.  

18. KENYA- "Mission to Rescue" 

In a Nutshell: An elite Kenyan military unit leads a rescue mission when a minister is abducted by brutal Somalian terrorists. 

Bottom Line: This patriotic action film made for streaming services is a bit out of its league here. 

Now the statistics:

Genres: 16 dramas, 1 comedy (South Africa) and 1 action movie (Kenya)

 

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 11 from the Middle East and 22 from Africa 

 

Number of countries entering films this year: 8 from the Middle East and 10 from Africa 

 

Number of debuts: Somalia 

 

Who Didn’t Submit?: Most of the absent countries have only submitted once or twice. Nigeria, Ghana and- for the first time- Namibia announced a call for submissions; Namibia and Nigeria later announced none of the submissions met AMPAS eligibility requirements.

 

The only other notable absences are Ethiopia (“Faya Dayi”) and Senegal (“Saloum”). 

 

Already Seen: I’ve seen the films from Algeria (B+), Egypt (B), Israel (A), and Jordan (A-) and I’m trying to get through four more Arabic-language screeners (Iraq, Morocco, Palestine, Saudi) Christmas week. 

 

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely Farhadi’s “Hero” and Somalian debutante “Gravedigger’s Wife”. 

 

Big Three Festivals: 

 

Cannes- Chad, Iran (Grand Prix), Iraq, Israel, Morocco, Somalia, Turkey 

Berlin- Egypt 

Venice- Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine 

 

Number of Female Directors: Only three: Mounia Akl (Lebanon), Ayten Amin (Egypt) and Amy Jephta (South Africa). Amin is the first woman to represent Egypt since the country starting sending movies in 1958.

 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Mahamat-Saleh Haroun (Chad) is 60. Gift Sukez Sukali (Malawi) is 28. 

 

Number of Languages Represented: 10 films out of 18 are in Arabic (including Israel). The other eight are in Afrikaans, Chichewa, French, Persian, Somali, Swahili, Turkish and, thanks to a new rule, Pidgin English (Cameroon). 

 

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a very strong group! Maybe eleven have a chance? 

 

Most Likely to Get Their First Shortlist Spot: It’s a dead heat between Chad and Iraq. 

 

Buzziest films: Farhadi, of course. 

 

Controversies and Changes: “Amira” was produced by an acclaimed Egyptian director, with the support of the Royal Jordanian Film Commission and the Saudi Arabian Red Sea Film Festival- hardly a “pro-Israel” group. And yet, a malicious social media campaign targeted the film, claiming that it was pro-Israel and offensive to Palestinian prisoners. I’ve seen “Amira” and it’s clear to me that none of these people have seen the film.  

 

However, they have sabotaged the film’s online ratings (a 2.2 on IMDB) and gotten the film pulled from Jordanian cinemas. Jordan announced that they “withdrew” the film from the Oscar race, however voting had already started so I believe the film is still in the running. This is a shame because it’s quite a good film and there’s absolutely nothing pro-Israel in it at all.

 

Oscar History: Five of these directors have been here before. 

 

Of course the most famous is Asghar Farhadi who was selected to represent Iran for the fifth time, winning Oscars for “A Separation” and “The Salesman” but not “About Elly” or “The Past”. 

 

Nabil Ayouch is representing Morocco for the fifth time while Chad’s only international director, Mahamat-Saleh Haroun, and Turkey’s Semih Kaplanoğlu are here for the third time (“Abouna”) and “GriGris”; “Honey” and “Commitment Asli”, both of which are awful.) 

 

Egypt’s Mohamed Diab represented his native country with “Clash” before representing Jordan this year with “Amira”. 

 

Most Notable Omissions: The saddest omission is the critically acclaimed black comedy “Feathers”, which got raves at Cannes and was said to be Egypt’s best shot at a nomination in decades. However, vague allegations that the film showed Egypt in a bad light created a controversy at home. Seems Egyptian/Middle Eastern audiences are determined to sabotage any Arab country making the finals this year (see “Amira”).

 

I was also quite shocked to see two-time Oscar nominee Hany Abu Assad’s “Huda’s Salon” fail to represent Palestine.

 

Also out early: “The Exam” (Iraq), “Portrait of Victory” (Israel), “The Alleys” (Jordan; possibly eligible next year?), “Eyimofe” (Nigeria), “Sons of the Sea” (South Africa), “Brother’s Keeper” (Turkey)

 

Familiar Faces: Nadine Labaki (“Costa Brava, Lebanon”) is probably the most recognizable face in the group, although “Amira” is also notable for reuniting the two suicide bomber stars of Oscar nominee “Paradise Now”.

 

Last year's race: I saw 14 of the 18 films submitted from the region last year, including the nominee from Tunisia and the shortlisted films from Iran and Côte d’Ivoire. Sadly, the best film- from Lebanon- failed to advance. My scores: 

 

Cote d’Ivoire (B), Egypt (B+), Iran (B+), Israel (B), Kenya (B+), Lebanon (A), Lesotho (C-), Morocco (A-), Nigeria (B+), Palestine (B), Saudi Arabia (A-), Senegal (B+), Sudan (B+), Tunisia (A-)

 

Not Seen: Cameroon, Jordan, South Africa, Turkey 

Unfortunately, I didn't have time to do the films from The Americas this year.....It's the weakest group....But my ranking is as follows:

FRONTRUNNERS:

1. MEXICO- "Prayers for the Stolen"

2. CANADA- "Drunken Birds"

DARK HORSES

3. COSTA RICA- "Clara Sola"

4. CHILE- "Blanco en blanco"

5. PANAMA- "Plaza Catedral"

MIDDLE OF THE PACK- 

6. COLOMBIA- "Memoria"

7. BRAZIL- "Private Desert"

8. VENEZUELA- "Inner Glow"

HAPPY TO BE COMPETING- 

9. URUGUAY- "Broken Glass Theory"

10. ARGENTINA- "El profugo"

11. HAITI- "Freda"

12. ECUADOR- "Submersible"

NO CHANCE-

13. BOLIVIA- "El gran movimiento"

14. PERU- "Manco Capac"

15. PARAGUAY- "Nothing But the Sun"

16. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- "Holy Beasts"

OSCAR SUBMISSIONS- The Films from Western Europe (19 films)

 So, I saw "Hand of God" last night, meaning that I've now seen half (10 out of 19) of the Western European submissions. Though Western European films traditionally dominate this category, they didn't do very well last year (they won the Oscar but only managed a weak 3 spots on the shortlist). I expect they will do much better this year. 

CLOSE TO BEING LOCKED:

1. DENMARK- "Flee"

In A Nutshell: An animated documentary about the life journey of a gay Afghan refugee.

Pros: I was extremely skeptical that a risky animated documentary would be selected to represent the most successful country in this category, but everyone who sees “Flee” says it’s one of the best films of the year- foreign language or not. Denmark knows what it’s doing; they’re nominated nearly every year. 

Cons: It’s an animated doc that could be rewarded in two other categories. Lgbt films rarely score here. 

Letterboxd: 4.1

2. AUSTRIA- "Great Freedom"

In A Nutshell: After being repeatedly prosecuted under the country's draconian anti-gay laws, a young gay man in post-war Austria develops an unusual relationship with his cellmate. 

Pros: “Great Freedom” arguably has the best reviews of any film here (other than “Flee”) and I haven’t read any negative press. It’s about a more serious, weighty subject than, say, Norway or Italy and is one of the most acclaimed period films (which Oscar likes). 

Cons: LGBT film rarely do well here; “Flee” is in but will they really choose two? 

Letterboxd: 3.8

LIKELY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST:

3. ITALY- "Hand of God"

In A Nutshell: A semi-autobiographical story about Paolo Sorrentino growing up amidst a boisterous middle-class family in 1980s Naples.  

Pros: Sorrentino won the Oscar for “Great Beauty” so we know they like his Fellini-esque style. I wasn’t a big fan of “Beauty” but I liked “God” far more than I expected. Netflix deal can’t hurt. The “making of a filmmaker” plot may play well with the filmmakers of the academy. One of only two European films to get a Golden Globe nomination for foreign film (Denmark wasn’t eligible in the category). 

Cons: The film is at its best when following the large, boisterous extended family and neighbors at the center of the film. When they fade to the background in the second half, the film runs out of gas…but Oscar voters may disagree with me. The football references (including the title) will go over most Americans’ heads. 

Letterboxd: 4.0

4. NORWAY- "Worst Person in the World"

In A Nutshell: A dark comedy about four years in the romantic life of a young Norwegian woman. 

Pros: A real crowd pleaser. Truly excellent reviews. Funny but not frivolous.  

Cons: The film has underperformed at awards, missing a few key precursors (European Film Awards, Golden Globes). AMPAS doesn’t usually like comedies…but they did last year and I think this will make it too. 

Letterboxd: 4.1

5. SPAIN- "The Good Boss"

In A Nutshell: The obsessive manager (Javier Bardem) of a company that manufactures scales seeks to manipulate his employees' lives in order to win a coveted award.

Pros: Another crowd pleaser. The star power of Javier Bardem. 

Cons: Another comedy. There’s a lot of bitterness online that this film was selected over “Parallel Mothers”, though I doubt voters take that into consideration. Some have complained the humor is too local (though I found it quite universal).

Letterboxd: 3.8

6. FINLAND- "Compartment No. 6"

In A Nutshell: A Finnish woman and a Russian man meet when they share a rail compartment on a lengthy train journey

Pros: 2nd Place at Cannes. Very strong reviews who praise the central relationship. 

Cons: Finland isn’t usually a contender here. Director Kuosmanen was an early favorite for “Olli Mikail which was not shortlisted. The film seems more likely to impress European and auteur critics….but should manage to crack the Top 15. 

Letterboxd: 3.7

DARK HORSES:

7. GERMANY- "I'm Your Man"

In A Nutshell: A happily (?) single woman is assigned to test out an AI robot scientifically designed to be her perfect mate. 

Pros: Unlike most films on the list, this is actually highly entertaining. Though it’s billed as a romantic comedy, there are a lot of profound ideas to think about here. The lead couple are charming. Already released in the USA. Oscar usually loves Germany. 

Cons: Genre bias against sci-fi and comedy. The film may be too light to score here. 

Letterboxd: 3.5

8. MALTA- "Luzzu"

In A Nutshell: A Maltese fisherman becomes involving in illegal smuggling activities to support the medical treatment of his newborn son. 

Pros: It’s amazing when a film can make what sounds like a dull subject interesting and “Luzzu” manages to make seafood smuggling dramatic and thrilling. It’s actually one of the best films on the list. Winner of Sundance Jury Award. Already released in the US. Brilliant and memorable lead acting performance. 

Cons: A lot of the awards attention goes to the lead actor more than the film. It’s a very small-scale film and though it’s highly deserving, I worry it will get lost among so many films. Some may be confused by the EU politics at the heart of the film. 

Letterboxd: 3.5

9. SWEDEN- "Tigers"

In A Nutshell: Based on a true story, this is about a promising young football talent who burns out when confronted with the exploitation of the "football "industry".

Pros: A rousing sports drama with a significant amount of English (making the film accessible and easy to watch). Though the film isn't mentioned as a frontrunner, it has gotten good reviews.  

Cons:  America doesn't care about football as much as Europe. Not much buzz. 

Letterboxd: 3.4

10. FRANCE- "Titane"

In A Nutshell: WTF? A serial killer has sex with a car, meets a lonely steroid-crazed man with a missing child and starts to leak oil. And it won Cannes! 

Pros: Cannes Palme d’Or Winner. It’s got a huge publicity machine behind it. France, France, France. 

Cons: Where to start? Though many are predicting an Oscar nod, I’m pretty sure this will not make the shortlist. Other than “Dogtooth” (which was saved by the special committee that doesn’t exist this year), nothing like this has been nominated before. Gross visuals, extreme violence, bizarre ending….None of this points to an Oscar nomination, not to mention genre bias against sci-fi and horror. I actually liked “Titane” but I felt it was more of a retro indie horror film, rather than an awards winner. 

Letterboxd: 3.7

TOO MUCH COMPETITION:

11. BELGIUM- "Playground"

In a Nutshell: A woman faces a moral dilemma when confronted with the complicated issue of school bullying.

Bottom Line: Last year's bullying drama "Better Days" was a surprise nominee and "Playground" has gotten good reviews, including a FIPRESCI award at Cannes. But I just think this small, spare (75-minute) drama will get lost in the mix. 

Letterboxd: 3.6

12. SWITZERLAND- "Olga"

In a Nutshell: An elite Ukrainian gymnast trains in Switzerland amidst political turmoil back home. 

Bottom Line: Reviews are good, but the film is clearly destined to come in the middle of the pack. 

Letterboxd: 3.5

13. NETHERLANDS- "Do Not Hesitate"

In a Nutshell: Three young Dutch peacekeeping soldiers are assigned to guard a damaged convoy in a remote area…and expected reinforcements fail to arrive, leaving them hungry, thirsty and vulnerable. 

Bottom Line: The film presents us with some fascinating moral dilemmas about foreign intervention and personal responsibility, that will especially resonate considering recent failures in Afghanistan....but the supporting characters are interchangeable and the film seems unlikely to make the Top 15. 

Letterboxd: 3.3

14. ICELAND- "Lamb"

In a Nutshell: A childless young couple living on a remote sheep farm find a newborn lamb born with human features. 

Bottom Line: Though the film was a box-office success and will proudly represent Iceland, Oscar's traditional aversion to fantasy/horror and the screenplay's odd decision to concentrate more on the uninteresting relationship between the couple and the husband's brother rather than the fascinating fairy tale foundling makes the film drag. 

Letterboxd: 3.2

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: 

15. PORTUGAL- "The Metamorphosis of Birds"

In a Nutshell: An overlong series of vague memories, letters and recollections about the director’s deceased parents.  

Letterboxd: 4.2 (the highest; but it’s still terrible)

16. UNITED KINGDOM- "Dying to Divorce" 

In a Nutshell: A documentary about a group of Turkish women seeking divorce from their abusive husbands. 

Letterboxd: 3.6

17. GREECE- "Digger"

In a Nutshell: After the death of his mother, an angry young man reluctantly connects with his estranged father to claim his land inheritance. 

Letterboxd: 3.6

18. LUXEMBOURG- "Io Sto Bene"

In a Nutshell: An elderly Italian man and young Italian woman- both expats in Luxembourg- meet. 

Letterboxd: 2.9 (lowest)

19. IRELAND- "Shelter"

In a Nutshell: A 30-year old man “on the spectrum” must learn to live on his own after both his parents die.  

Letterboxd: 3.1

These five films from the regional minnows are definitely out of the running. I’ve seen “Digger” and “Shelter” and these low-key dramas just aren’t good enough to make it to the next round. “Digger” is technically impressive but simply isn’t that interesting, while “Shelter” wants the viewer to figure things out with little to no background, making it a challenging film to watch.  

Luxembourg’s obscure drama has the weakest reviews of the Western European group (Variety called it “fragmented and flimsy”) while low-budget documentary “Dying to Divorce” highlights an important issue but won’t be able to compete with the narrative features. But entering the competition guarantees these films more exposure and I will certainly try to see them for myself. 

And that leaves us with “Metamorphosis of Birds”. On paper, “Birds” has fairly good notices and some people are pulling for it. Having said that, the film is a disaster. What could have been an interesting short film about loss and memory, turns into an interminable litany of reading letters (some are beautiful…others sound like stream of consciousness nonsense, speculating whether a dead mother would enjoy Wikipedia), close-ups of objects found around the house, and a confusing range of characters, none of whom are seen clearly on screen. Oscar has never nominated Portugal and never will if they keep sending movies like this (and they do). 

Now the statistics:

Genres:  10 dramas, 3 comedies (Germany, Norway and Spain), 3 documentaries (Denmark, UK and Portugal, which AMPAS doesn’t actually recognize as one), 2 vaguely “horror”-ish films (France, Iceland) and 1 thriller (Netherlands) 

 

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 20

 

Number of countries entering films this year: 19

 

Number of debuts: Zero but Malta is here for just the second time. 

 

Who Didn’t Submit?: Just Greenland (pop: 55,000) which doesn’t have an active committee. 

 

Already Seen: France (B), Germany (B+), Greece (C), Iceland (B), Ireland (C), Italy (B+), Malta (A-), Netherlands (B+), Portugal (D) and Spain (A). 

 

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: “Flee”, which many say is the best film of the year, foreign or not. 

 

Big Three Festivals:

 

Cannes- France (Winner), Finland (Grand Prix), Austria, Belgium, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland 

Berlin- Germany, Greece, Portugal 

Venice- Italy 

 

Number of Female Directors: Only 5, which is low for the region…..Julia Ducournau (France), Chloe Fairweather (UK), Maria Schrader (Germany), Catarina Vasconcelos (Portugal) and Laura Wandel (Belgium) 

 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Maria Schrader, 56, and Elie Grappe, the youngest competitor from any region, at age 27. 

 

Number of Languages Represented: We have three films in French, and two each in German and dialects of Italian….plus one each in Danish, Dutch, Greek, Icelandic, Irish Gaelic, Maltese, Norwegian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Swedish and Turkish. 

 

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: A lot….Maybe 10? 

 

Most Likely to Get Their First Nomination: Well, nine of these countries have won and six more were nominated….Of the remaining four (Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal) , only Malta has a realistic chance of making the shortlist. 

 

Buzziest films: Cannes Palme d’Or winner “Titane” and LGBT animated doc “Flee” 

 

Controversies and Changes: Other than snubbing Almodovar not really. 

 

Oscar History: Six of these directors have been here before. Of course, Paolo Sorrentino won the Oscar eight years ago for “The Great Beauty”.  And early frontrunner Joachim Trier has been selected by Norway twice before for “Reprise” and “Thelma”. 

 

Competing for a second time: Finland’s Juho Kuosmanen (“The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”), Spain’s Fernando Leon de Aranoa (“Mondays in the Sun”) and Luxembourg’s Donato Rutunno (“Baby (a)lone”), plus Germany’s Maria Schrader who previously competed for Austria (“Stefan Zweig”). 

 

Most Notable Omissions: As happens often in Western Europe, some early favorites weren’t selected by their countries due to fierce internal competition. This year, two early Oscar frontrunners from Venice- Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” and Audrey Diwan’s “The Happening”- were expected to represent their countries but were defeated by underdogs. Both countries would have had a better chance with the favorites but I think Spain (but definitely not France) may be nominated anyway. 

 

Netflix deals make it easy to get your film seen widely which is why many predicted that “Shadows in My Eyes” (Denmark), “Summit of the Gods” (Luxembourg) and “The Forgotten Battle” (Netherlands) might have an edge…but it didn’t help. 

 

Also out early: “The Blind Man Who Didn’t Want to See the Titanic” (Finland), “Petite Maman” (France), “Mr. Bachmann and His Class” (Germany), “King of Laughter” and “A Chiara” (Italy), “Ninjababy” and “Nothing to Laugh About” (Norway), “Shadow” (Portugal), and “Feast” (UK). 

 

Familiar Faces: Lots, although the most famous are clearly Javier Bardem (“The Good Boss”), Dan Stevens (“I’m Your Man”), Noomi Rapace (“Lamb”) and Vincent Lindon (“Titane”). 

 

Last year's race: Of course, “Another Round” won last year, and it was one of the most charming films on last year’s list (though certainly not the best). 

 

I managed to see all 17 films and my rankings were: Norway, France (A), Belgium, Denmark (A-), Greece, Spain (B+), Iceland, Ireland, Sweden (B), Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland  (C+), Austria (C), Finland, Netherlands (C-), Italy (D) and Portugal (F).