OSCAR SUBMISSIONS- The Films from Western Europe (19 films)

 So, I saw "Hand of God" last night, meaning that I've now seen half (10 out of 19) of the Western European submissions. Though Western European films traditionally dominate this category, they didn't do very well last year (they won the Oscar but only managed a weak 3 spots on the shortlist). I expect they will do much better this year. 

CLOSE TO BEING LOCKED:

1. DENMARK- "Flee"

In A Nutshell: An animated documentary about the life journey of a gay Afghan refugee.

Pros: I was extremely skeptical that a risky animated documentary would be selected to represent the most successful country in this category, but everyone who sees “Flee” says it’s one of the best films of the year- foreign language or not. Denmark knows what it’s doing; they’re nominated nearly every year. 

Cons: It’s an animated doc that could be rewarded in two other categories. Lgbt films rarely score here. 

Letterboxd: 4.1

2. AUSTRIA- "Great Freedom"

In A Nutshell: After being repeatedly prosecuted under the country's draconian anti-gay laws, a young gay man in post-war Austria develops an unusual relationship with his cellmate. 

Pros: “Great Freedom” arguably has the best reviews of any film here (other than “Flee”) and I haven’t read any negative press. It’s about a more serious, weighty subject than, say, Norway or Italy and is one of the most acclaimed period films (which Oscar likes). 

Cons: LGBT film rarely do well here; “Flee” is in but will they really choose two? 

Letterboxd: 3.8

LIKELY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST:

3. ITALY- "Hand of God"

In A Nutshell: A semi-autobiographical story about Paolo Sorrentino growing up amidst a boisterous middle-class family in 1980s Naples.  

Pros: Sorrentino won the Oscar for “Great Beauty” so we know they like his Fellini-esque style. I wasn’t a big fan of “Beauty” but I liked “God” far more than I expected. Netflix deal can’t hurt. The “making of a filmmaker” plot may play well with the filmmakers of the academy. One of only two European films to get a Golden Globe nomination for foreign film (Denmark wasn’t eligible in the category). 

Cons: The film is at its best when following the large, boisterous extended family and neighbors at the center of the film. When they fade to the background in the second half, the film runs out of gas…but Oscar voters may disagree with me. The football references (including the title) will go over most Americans’ heads. 

Letterboxd: 4.0

4. NORWAY- "Worst Person in the World"

In A Nutshell: A dark comedy about four years in the romantic life of a young Norwegian woman. 

Pros: A real crowd pleaser. Truly excellent reviews. Funny but not frivolous.  

Cons: The film has underperformed at awards, missing a few key precursors (European Film Awards, Golden Globes). AMPAS doesn’t usually like comedies…but they did last year and I think this will make it too. 

Letterboxd: 4.1

5. SPAIN- "The Good Boss"

In A Nutshell: The obsessive manager (Javier Bardem) of a company that manufactures scales seeks to manipulate his employees' lives in order to win a coveted award.

Pros: Another crowd pleaser. The star power of Javier Bardem. 

Cons: Another comedy. There’s a lot of bitterness online that this film was selected over “Parallel Mothers”, though I doubt voters take that into consideration. Some have complained the humor is too local (though I found it quite universal).

Letterboxd: 3.8

6. FINLAND- "Compartment No. 6"

In A Nutshell: A Finnish woman and a Russian man meet when they share a rail compartment on a lengthy train journey

Pros: 2nd Place at Cannes. Very strong reviews who praise the central relationship. 

Cons: Finland isn’t usually a contender here. Director Kuosmanen was an early favorite for “Olli Mikail which was not shortlisted. The film seems more likely to impress European and auteur critics….but should manage to crack the Top 15. 

Letterboxd: 3.7

DARK HORSES:

7. GERMANY- "I'm Your Man"

In A Nutshell: A happily (?) single woman is assigned to test out an AI robot scientifically designed to be her perfect mate. 

Pros: Unlike most films on the list, this is actually highly entertaining. Though it’s billed as a romantic comedy, there are a lot of profound ideas to think about here. The lead couple are charming. Already released in the USA. Oscar usually loves Germany. 

Cons: Genre bias against sci-fi and comedy. The film may be too light to score here. 

Letterboxd: 3.5

8. MALTA- "Luzzu"

In A Nutshell: A Maltese fisherman becomes involving in illegal smuggling activities to support the medical treatment of his newborn son. 

Pros: It’s amazing when a film can make what sounds like a dull subject interesting and “Luzzu” manages to make seafood smuggling dramatic and thrilling. It’s actually one of the best films on the list. Winner of Sundance Jury Award. Already released in the US. Brilliant and memorable lead acting performance. 

Cons: A lot of the awards attention goes to the lead actor more than the film. It’s a very small-scale film and though it’s highly deserving, I worry it will get lost among so many films. Some may be confused by the EU politics at the heart of the film. 

Letterboxd: 3.5

9. SWEDEN- "Tigers"

In A Nutshell: Based on a true story, this is about a promising young football talent who burns out when confronted with the exploitation of the "football "industry".

Pros: A rousing sports drama with a significant amount of English (making the film accessible and easy to watch). Though the film isn't mentioned as a frontrunner, it has gotten good reviews.  

Cons:  America doesn't care about football as much as Europe. Not much buzz. 

Letterboxd: 3.4

10. FRANCE- "Titane"

In A Nutshell: WTF? A serial killer has sex with a car, meets a lonely steroid-crazed man with a missing child and starts to leak oil. And it won Cannes! 

Pros: Cannes Palme d’Or Winner. It’s got a huge publicity machine behind it. France, France, France. 

Cons: Where to start? Though many are predicting an Oscar nod, I’m pretty sure this will not make the shortlist. Other than “Dogtooth” (which was saved by the special committee that doesn’t exist this year), nothing like this has been nominated before. Gross visuals, extreme violence, bizarre ending….None of this points to an Oscar nomination, not to mention genre bias against sci-fi and horror. I actually liked “Titane” but I felt it was more of a retro indie horror film, rather than an awards winner. 

Letterboxd: 3.7

TOO MUCH COMPETITION:

11. BELGIUM- "Playground"

In a Nutshell: A woman faces a moral dilemma when confronted with the complicated issue of school bullying.

Bottom Line: Last year's bullying drama "Better Days" was a surprise nominee and "Playground" has gotten good reviews, including a FIPRESCI award at Cannes. But I just think this small, spare (75-minute) drama will get lost in the mix. 

Letterboxd: 3.6

12. SWITZERLAND- "Olga"

In a Nutshell: An elite Ukrainian gymnast trains in Switzerland amidst political turmoil back home. 

Bottom Line: Reviews are good, but the film is clearly destined to come in the middle of the pack. 

Letterboxd: 3.5

13. NETHERLANDS- "Do Not Hesitate"

In a Nutshell: Three young Dutch peacekeeping soldiers are assigned to guard a damaged convoy in a remote area…and expected reinforcements fail to arrive, leaving them hungry, thirsty and vulnerable. 

Bottom Line: The film presents us with some fascinating moral dilemmas about foreign intervention and personal responsibility, that will especially resonate considering recent failures in Afghanistan....but the supporting characters are interchangeable and the film seems unlikely to make the Top 15. 

Letterboxd: 3.3

14. ICELAND- "Lamb"

In a Nutshell: A childless young couple living on a remote sheep farm find a newborn lamb born with human features. 

Bottom Line: Though the film was a box-office success and will proudly represent Iceland, Oscar's traditional aversion to fantasy/horror and the screenplay's odd decision to concentrate more on the uninteresting relationship between the couple and the husband's brother rather than the fascinating fairy tale foundling makes the film drag. 

Letterboxd: 3.2

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: 

15. PORTUGAL- "The Metamorphosis of Birds"

In a Nutshell: An overlong series of vague memories, letters and recollections about the director’s deceased parents.  

Letterboxd: 4.2 (the highest; but it’s still terrible)

16. UNITED KINGDOM- "Dying to Divorce" 

In a Nutshell: A documentary about a group of Turkish women seeking divorce from their abusive husbands. 

Letterboxd: 3.6

17. GREECE- "Digger"

In a Nutshell: After the death of his mother, an angry young man reluctantly connects with his estranged father to claim his land inheritance. 

Letterboxd: 3.6

18. LUXEMBOURG- "Io Sto Bene"

In a Nutshell: An elderly Italian man and young Italian woman- both expats in Luxembourg- meet. 

Letterboxd: 2.9 (lowest)

19. IRELAND- "Shelter"

In a Nutshell: A 30-year old man “on the spectrum” must learn to live on his own after both his parents die.  

Letterboxd: 3.1

These five films from the regional minnows are definitely out of the running. I’ve seen “Digger” and “Shelter” and these low-key dramas just aren’t good enough to make it to the next round. “Digger” is technically impressive but simply isn’t that interesting, while “Shelter” wants the viewer to figure things out with little to no background, making it a challenging film to watch.  

Luxembourg’s obscure drama has the weakest reviews of the Western European group (Variety called it “fragmented and flimsy”) while low-budget documentary “Dying to Divorce” highlights an important issue but won’t be able to compete with the narrative features. But entering the competition guarantees these films more exposure and I will certainly try to see them for myself. 

And that leaves us with “Metamorphosis of Birds”. On paper, “Birds” has fairly good notices and some people are pulling for it. Having said that, the film is a disaster. What could have been an interesting short film about loss and memory, turns into an interminable litany of reading letters (some are beautiful…others sound like stream of consciousness nonsense, speculating whether a dead mother would enjoy Wikipedia), close-ups of objects found around the house, and a confusing range of characters, none of whom are seen clearly on screen. Oscar has never nominated Portugal and never will if they keep sending movies like this (and they do). 

Now the statistics:

Genres:  10 dramas, 3 comedies (Germany, Norway and Spain), 3 documentaries (Denmark, UK and Portugal, which AMPAS doesn’t actually recognize as one), 2 vaguely “horror”-ish films (France, Iceland) and 1 thriller (Netherlands) 

 

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 20

 

Number of countries entering films this year: 19

 

Number of debuts: Zero but Malta is here for just the second time. 

 

Who Didn’t Submit?: Just Greenland (pop: 55,000) which doesn’t have an active committee. 

 

Already Seen: France (B), Germany (B+), Greece (C), Iceland (B), Ireland (C), Italy (B+), Malta (A-), Netherlands (B+), Portugal (D) and Spain (A). 

 

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: “Flee”, which many say is the best film of the year, foreign or not. 

 

Big Three Festivals:

 

Cannes- France (Winner), Finland (Grand Prix), Austria, Belgium, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland 

Berlin- Germany, Greece, Portugal 

Venice- Italy 

 

Number of Female Directors: Only 5, which is low for the region…..Julia Ducournau (France), Chloe Fairweather (UK), Maria Schrader (Germany), Catarina Vasconcelos (Portugal) and Laura Wandel (Belgium) 

 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Maria Schrader, 56, and Elie Grappe, the youngest competitor from any region, at age 27. 

 

Number of Languages Represented: We have three films in French, and two each in German and dialects of Italian….plus one each in Danish, Dutch, Greek, Icelandic, Irish Gaelic, Maltese, Norwegian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Swedish and Turkish. 

 

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: A lot….Maybe 10? 

 

Most Likely to Get Their First Nomination: Well, nine of these countries have won and six more were nominated….Of the remaining four (Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal) , only Malta has a realistic chance of making the shortlist. 

 

Buzziest films: Cannes Palme d’Or winner “Titane” and LGBT animated doc “Flee” 

 

Controversies and Changes: Other than snubbing Almodovar not really. 

 

Oscar History: Six of these directors have been here before. Of course, Paolo Sorrentino won the Oscar eight years ago for “The Great Beauty”.  And early frontrunner Joachim Trier has been selected by Norway twice before for “Reprise” and “Thelma”. 

 

Competing for a second time: Finland’s Juho Kuosmanen (“The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”), Spain’s Fernando Leon de Aranoa (“Mondays in the Sun”) and Luxembourg’s Donato Rutunno (“Baby (a)lone”), plus Germany’s Maria Schrader who previously competed for Austria (“Stefan Zweig”). 

 

Most Notable Omissions: As happens often in Western Europe, some early favorites weren’t selected by their countries due to fierce internal competition. This year, two early Oscar frontrunners from Venice- Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” and Audrey Diwan’s “The Happening”- were expected to represent their countries but were defeated by underdogs. Both countries would have had a better chance with the favorites but I think Spain (but definitely not France) may be nominated anyway. 

 

Netflix deals make it easy to get your film seen widely which is why many predicted that “Shadows in My Eyes” (Denmark), “Summit of the Gods” (Luxembourg) and “The Forgotten Battle” (Netherlands) might have an edge…but it didn’t help. 

 

Also out early: “The Blind Man Who Didn’t Want to See the Titanic” (Finland), “Petite Maman” (France), “Mr. Bachmann and His Class” (Germany), “King of Laughter” and “A Chiara” (Italy), “Ninjababy” and “Nothing to Laugh About” (Norway), “Shadow” (Portugal), and “Feast” (UK). 

 

Familiar Faces: Lots, although the most famous are clearly Javier Bardem (“The Good Boss”), Dan Stevens (“I’m Your Man”), Noomi Rapace (“Lamb”) and Vincent Lindon (“Titane”). 

 

Last year's race: Of course, “Another Round” won last year, and it was one of the most charming films on last year’s list (though certainly not the best). 

 

I managed to see all 17 films and my rankings were: Norway, France (A), Belgium, Denmark (A-), Greece, Spain (B+), Iceland, Ireland, Sweden (B), Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland  (C+), Austria (C), Finland, Netherlands (C-), Italy (D) and Portugal (F).