FINAL PREDICTIONS- Nomination Stage

 So, I got 9 out of 15 finalists correct,,,,,Most of those were easy ones....I was shocked by the inclusion of "Lamb", disappointed by the absence of "Luzzu" and thrilled with the inclusion of "Lunana". 

Having seen 11 of this year's 15 finalists (and 62 of this year's 93 national submissions), I felt that the quality this year was a little below average, I'm really disappointed that the overlong, pseudo-intellectual "Drive My Car" has somehow emerged as the frontrunner. I love Japanese cinema but didn't like "Car" at all. It starts well but then delves into an in-depth study of Chekhov, requiring the viewer to be familiar (and interested) in his plays to make the three hours go by. AMPAS rarely goes intellectual in this category (though they did nominate "The Square" and shortlisted "Force Majeure", which I also didn't really care for). I expected "Car" would be the surprise snub on Oscar morning....but that was before it won the Golden Globe and numerous U.S. critics awards and started to be mentioned in the Best Picture conversation.....Confusing, but it is what it is. 

Five clear frontrunners have emerged- "Drive My Car" plus two films by previous Oscar winners- "Hand of God" (Italy) and "A Hero" (Iran), and two universally praised Scandinavian titles- "Flee" (Denmark) and "Worst Person in the World" (Norway). But this category always includes a surprise and I'm pretty sure that surprise will be "A Great Freedom" from (Austria). I would be shocked if any of these six miss.....but of course one of them will! But which one? I can't make up my mind,

STRONGEST CONTENDERS

1.  IRAN- "A Hero"

2.  ITALY- "Hand of God"

3.  NORWAY- "Worst Person in the World" 

    I think the two previous Oscar winners- Sorrentino and Farhadi- are safe. Both films appeal to festival critics (winning the Grand Jury Prize in Venice and Cannes respectively) and were nominated by the Golden Globes (who match up with Oscar a lot more than you'd expect). Italy managed European Film Awards and BAFTA nominations also. They're also very Oscar friendly, widely available via streaming platforms and- although this doesn't matter much- they're both very good films. While the Fellini-esque "Hand of God" is not universally beloved, it's saggy second half is really all about the love of cinema and I think Oscar voters will love it despite its flaws. In my opinion, it's a better film than "Great Beauty" which I thought was fine but forgettable.  "A Hero" isn't as good as "A Separation" (which won) but it's better than "A Salesman" (which also won) and so in a weaker year, the twisty domestic mystery of "A Hero" feels safe as well. 

Unfortunately, I haven't seen "Worst Person in the World" and I know many people think it's too light to be nominated. But everyone who sees it really does seem to love it and the film's Best Actress campaign (which will not succeed) and a lot of passion will play a role in Norway getting its first nomination since 2012. 

4.  JAPAN- "Drive My Car"

5.  AUSTRIA- "Great Freedom"

6.  DENMARK- "Flee" 

How is Japan the frontrunner? 😖

As I said above, I'm not a fan. Of course it's well-acted and there are a few lovely moments...but an Oscar nominee? Better than Farhadi or "Flee"? Come on! I really did expect a surprise snub but it's literally appeared everywhere...even places that don't like this kind of overhyped festival mishmash. And it's ranked #1 on Letterboxd.....So I've caved and it's in. 

So that means a snub for one of the two LGBT candidates I really thought would get in....and I really can't decide which,,,,,Denmark has the stronger reviews from critics (and it's #2 among the "masses" of Letterboxd, tied with Norway) and a near-perfect record in this category. "Flee" is deserving, innovative and covers the hyper-relevant categories of immigration and refugee flows. But it's campaign to be nominated in all three specialty categories (Documentary, Animated and International) may lead all three branches to think it will be nominated elsewhere....But don't get me wrong....I think it has a great chance to be nominated.

But there's always a surprise! And of the ten "dark horses" on the list, no film has better reviews than LGBT prison drama "Great Freedom". I haven't seen it myself (it's one of the hardest films to find) but I this will be the surprise on Oscar morning. 

DARK HORSES:

7.  FINLAND- "Compartment #6"

8.  SPAIN- "El Buen Patron"

9.  BHUTAN- "Lunana, A Yak in the Classroom" 

These three films could also conceivably be the big surprise....but I don't think so. I loved the films from Spain and Bhutan and they would be among my five favorites among the 62 films that I saw. Comedy "The Good Boss" has starpower (Javier Bardem) but is probably too light (and it seems a few people don't like the film). Bhutan is destined to win the "Audience Award" or "Miss Congenality" for the delightful "Lunana" and I'm so happy it was allowed to compete (it was disqualified last year when it was submitted by an unrecognized selection committee at the Bhutanese Ministry of Culture, and technically was eligible last year). Filmed in one of the world's most remote villages by filmmakers who didn't have enough electricity to review their daily footage until they returned to the capital, a nomination would mean so much to Bhutan's tiny film industry. But this low-budget effort with cute kids and a surprisingly strong screenplay is probably just going to miss out. 

I haven't seen "Compartment" yet, but it has gotten some important precursor attention. But Finland's odd sense of humor has never really resonated with AMPAS ("Man Without a Past" was their only Oscar nominee) and I think they're likely to come in 6th or 7th. 

LONG SHOTS:

10.  BELGIUM- "Playground"

11.  GERMANY- "I'm Your Man"

12.  MEXICO- "Noche de fuego"

I haven't been able to see "Playground". Some have told me that if I did, I would be ranking it higher. But this spare 75-minute feature debut about school bullying may be seen as too small to compete. "I'm Your Man" is a crowdpleaser and was mentioned as an early favorite. But if any romantic comedy is going to sneak in, it's definitely going to be Norway. Mexico has some passionate fans and (along with Italy) has the backing of Netflix. But while the film is certainly "beautiful" and "important" and "sad", it's not "engaging" or dramatically structured in such a way that it will be nominated. Along with "Drive My Car", it was my least favorite of the 11 I saw.   

HAPPY TO MAKE THE SHORTLIST

13.  PANAMA- "Plaza Catedral"

14.  KOSOVO- "Hive"

15.  ICELAND- "Lamb"

    It still surprises me that these three films made the shortlist. "Plaza Catedral" is a lovely film but this drama-thriller about a middle-class Mexican woman in Panama City who ends up taking care of a street child/ex-gang member is a very small film and I think it's advanced as far as it can. The same could be said for Sundance winner "Hive", an intimate look about a widow struggling against the patriarchy in her Kosovar village. 

"Lamb" is the only film I really feel has no chance of being nominated. This is literally my favorite genre and I was thrilled to see a horror film included on the list but "Lamb" spends too much of its story on the Icelandic family's uninteresting marital problems and not enough on the fascinating central story...."Lamb" also ranks last in virtually every category (it's ranked last on IMDB and Letterboxd by a wide margin....and 14th out of 15 on Rotten Tomatoes) and has won fewer major awards than most. But it's still a very interesting quirky little film. 

We'll find out tomorrow morning! 

In my next post, I'll do a ranking of the 60+ films I've seen (but will wait until I've seen all five eventual Oscar nominees).