I was waiting for Venice to start and for Brazil to announce its shortlist (they announced an absurd 28 films earlier today) before publishing, but five of these countries (Canada, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay) decided to announce early. I got them all wrong. 🙄
1. ARGENTINA- “Puan” As always, Argentina has plenty to choose from but I think the race will come down to which of two exciting upcoming thrillers gets better reviews- “Puan” (San Sebastian) or “The Rescue” (Venice Horizons). Kidnapping drama “The Rescue”, starring Rodrigo de la Serna, is about a man whose brother is held hostage for ransom. “Argentina 1985” was a Venice premiere (as were “El clan”, “Distinguished Citizen” and “Zama”) and “The Rescue” is definitely the favorite…but I’m predicting “Puan”, an “academic thriller” about a dedicated, hard-working professor in line to become head of a department, who gets overshadowed by a charismatic new arrival (Leonardo Sbaraglia). Just a hunch. Five other options (in order) that could conceivably rep Latin America’s most successful country (8 nominations, 2 wins) in this category: (1)- “Los impactados” (San Sebastian), about a family whose daughter is struck by lightning….director Lucia Puenzo has been picked twice before; (2)- “Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” (SxSW), a low-key but very well-reviewed film about a religious woman trying to perform a miracle, (3)- “About Thirty” (Berlin), a comedy about an unlucky 30-year old; (4)- “Let the Dance Begin” (Malaga), about three aging friends/tango dancers and (5)- “Blondi”, about a mother-daughter relationship who act like sisters. Less possible: “The Delinquents” (Cannes), “Ravaging Wind” (San Sebastian) and “Klezmer Project” (Berlin).
2. BOLIVIA- "The Visitor" Bolivia deserved at least a spot on the shortlist for beautiful Sundance winner "Utama"....but the new voting rules probably caused it to lose out. Bolivia only has a handful of national releases this year, but it's still a competitive race. The favorite is "The Visitor", which won Best Screenplay (International) at Tribeca 2022, about a man released from prison who tries to develop a relationship with his young daughter who has been raised by his Evangelical in-laws. 87-year old Jorge Sanjines, considered one of the fathers of Bolivian national cinema also has a promising new film- "Old Soldiers"- about the friendship between an indigenous Bolivian who moves to the city, and a white Bolivian who moves to the countryside. But the leftist Sanjines turned down a previous opportunity to rep Bolivia and his ideological films aren't likely to appeal to Western audiences. It also may not premiere in time. Confusing drama "Los de abajo" (Best Actor, Moscow 2023), about a poor man fighting a rich landowner, is a third possibility.
3. BRAZIL- “Pictures of Ghosts” Brazil announced that 28 films registered to compete for the Oscar (possibly a record?) which they quickly whittled down to six, including five fiction features- “Alien Nights”, “Nosso Sonho”, “A Strange Path”, “Toll” and “Vultures”. It’s an unusual list almost completely focused on the Afro-Brazilian experience. Of these five, only “Toll” seems likely, although the fact that the unseen musical biopic “Nosso Sonho” made the list over higher profile entries mean it could be a surprise contender. I’m hoping they pick “Toll” the story of a homophobic Christian mother who gets involved with organized crime to earn money to send her son to “gay conversion” center. It’s the only one that got major festival play (Toronto, San Sebastián), although graffiti youth drama “Vultures” won Best Brazilian Film at São Paulo 2022. However, the favorite is the one documentary on the list, Kleber Mendonça Filho’s ode to cinema, “Pictures of Ghosts”. The last time Brazil picked a documentary about cinema (“Babenco”) it was the worst film on the entire list (and one of the worst films I saw that year). But the critics adored “Ghosts”, about Recife’s decaying cinemas, which landed berths at Cannes, Toronto and New York and impressed film buffs who got “Last Film show” on the shortlist last year. Kleber is also felt to be “owed”. His “Aquarius” was snubbed, allegedly for political reasons, and they’ll want to reward him. I wasn’t impressed with his previous “Neighbouring Sounds”…but “Ghosts” will probably win against “Toll”…though I hope not.
1. Pictures of Ghosts 54%
2. Toll 40%
3. Nosso Sonho 5%
4. Vultures 1%
5. Alien Nights 0%
6. A Strange Path 0%
4. CANADA- “The Nature of Love” (Simple comme Sylvain) Once a major power in this category, Canada has been uneven recently and they haven’t been nominated in eleven years. Over the past decade, they’ve sent some wonderfully deserving films (“Mommy”, “Drunken Birds”) as well as odd duds (“Felix & Meira”, “Eternal Spring”). As usual, Canada has plenty to choose from but many of their leading contenders are premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in September (many with unannounced release dates) and it’s difficult to tell what is good and what is eligible. For now, my prediction is “The Nature of Love” a well-reviewed relationship drama about the problems of monogamy that earned quite good reviews for Monia Chokri at Cannes Un Certain Regard. But it has plenty of competition, notably from two Toronto premieres- LGBT drama “Solo” about Montreal’s drag scene and Holocaust drama “Irena’s Vow”, about the Polish housekeeper to a Nazi officer who hides Polish Jews. Both have female directors who were selected once before. Of these two runner-ups, I give “Solo” the edge because it actually has a release date, unlike “Irena”. Rounding out the Top Five from Canada are “Temporaries” (Richelieu), about a woman trying to help exploited Guatemalan migrant workers (“Drunken Birds” showed the Canadian Academy’s interest in migrant stories) and “What We See”, a drama in Inuktikut about two First Nations sisters separated by COVID restrictions. One final dark horse is “Riceboy Sleeps”, a sleeper hit about a Korean-Canadian and his immigrant mother…though the trailer seems to be about 50% in English and Canadian won’t want to repeat a “Funny Boy” announcement and disqualification. But it will be a strong contender if it’s eligible. Update: Canada surprised everyone by going with little-known ISIS documentary “Rojek”
5. CHILE- “The Eternal Memory” Even before Chile announced its five shortlisted candidates for the Oscars, I assumed they had four frontrunners. Three or these had major factors standing in their way- Pablo Larrain had been picked four times and has one Oscar International Feature nomination (“No”), plus he directed two Oscar nominated films in English (“Spencer” and “Jackie”)…but his upcoming Netflix film “The Count” is a vampire comedy about bloody dictator Augusto Pinochet, which some Chileans (on both left and right!) may find to be in bad taste. Grim historical drama “The Settlers” premiered at Cannes and had mostly good reviews…but two of its three leads are Anglophone and I thlught it may not qualify. “El vacio” is the comeback vehicle for Gustavo Graef Marino who was picked way back in 1993 (“Johnny 100 Pesos”) but who has made very few films since. But this May-December romance had very little buzz or festival play. i figured the fourth contender- “The Eternal Memory” had everything going for it. It’s timely, critically acclaimed, and about a topic that will resonate with elderly AMPAS voters (Alzheimer’s disease)..plus director Maite Alberdi got an Oscar nomination (for Documentary feature, plus an International Feature shortlist spot) for the rather brilliant “The Mole Agent”. I was very confident this would go to Alberdi…Just read the reviews! When Chile announced their shortlist, a fifth option- documentary “Meeting Point”- also appeared on the shortlist. In the end, Chile sent “Memory” to the Goyas and my runner-up “The Settlers” to the Oscars. Probably not a good choice.
6. COLOMBIA- “The Other Son” I originally predicted Colombia would choose “La Suprema” which will premiere in Toronto- but it won’t be released in cinemas this year. I had Cannes drama “Un varon”, about toxic masculinity, as my runner-up. But when I saw Colombia’s 15-film shortlist (11 fiction dramas, three documentaries and an animated film), I quickly dumped “Un varon”- which premiered over a year ago and got middling reviews and no buzz- for new drama “The Other Son”, premiering at San Sebastián, about a man falling for his dead brother’s girlfriend. That was a mistake as “El varon” somehow ended up being selected over its stronger competition. I guess the Cannes label went really far. Other films on the list that may have come close: drama “Nubes grises soplan sobre el campo verde”, documentaries “Alis” (Berlin) and “Anhell69” (Venice), “Somos Ecos”, a guerrilla rebel drama, commercial thriller “Timeline” and wordless animated film “The Other Shape”
7. COSTA RICA- “I Have Electric Dreams” (Tengo sueños eléctricos) It’s difficult to see Costa Rica choosing anything other than “I Have Electric Dreams”, a coming-of-age drama (already on Mubi) and feature debut by Belgium-based Costa Rican director Valentina Maurel, who has had her short films screened at Cannes. “Dreams”, about a teenage girl torn between her divorced parents, premiered at Locarno 2022. It’s difficult to say what Costa Rica would pick if “Dreams” isn’t eligible….possibly “Guian”, a documentary about the Costa Rican-Chinese community. Should be an easy selection this year.
8. CUBA- “El mundo de Nelsito” Cuba submits films roughly half the time, although they have taken the past two years off. They had two fiction features and two documentary features at the December 2022 Havana Film Festival, so if they send anything it will probably be one of these “approved” films. Both fiction features- “El mundo de Nelsito” and “Under a Powerful Sun”- are by fairly senior directors, including 79-year old Fernando Perez who was selected twice (a long time ago) in 1991 and 2003. “Under a Powerful Sun”, about a director haunted by the ghosts of characters from three of his films, looks a bit less accessible than “Nelsito”, a dramatic comedy about the imagination of an autistic teen.
9. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Boca Chica” The Dominican Republic, the only Caribbean nation to submit films regularly, has sent films every year for the past 12 years. That includes three films by Leticia Tonos, three by Jose Maria Cabral and two from the team of Laura Amelia Guzmán and Israel Cárdenas. The prolific Jose Maria Cabral (one of my favorite Latin American directors) has no new films this year but the other two are hoping to be selected again. The three frontrunners are Tonos’ postapocalyptic sci-fi “Aire”, now in post-production after winning a genre award at Cannes Film Market, Guzman/Cardenas’ “La Hembrita” (Rotterdam), a subtle drama about a depressed but wealthy housewife who begins taking care of her housekeeper’s granddaughter; plus “Boca Chica” (Tribeca), about a 12-year old girl growing up in a poor, beach area famous for prostitution. “Aire” doesn’t have a release date yet and could compete next year….The other two quiet dramas will be close….but I’m predicting “Boca Chica” because of its Tribeca award in the USA and because it’s stylistically closer to what the DR picked last year. Rounding out the Top Five: comedies “Cuarencena” and “Year of the Tiger".
10. ECUADOR- “Octopus Skin” (La piel pulpo) Ecuador has submitted films regularly since 2013. The only Ecuadorian film on the film festival circuit this year is “Octopus Skin” (San Sebastian), a drama about two 17-year old twins (a boy and a girl) with an uncomfortably close relationship. Writer/director Ana Cristina Barragan was selected once before for “Alba”. Unlikely but possible: thriller “Distortion”, about a man left emotionally unstable when his wife leaves him, and black comedy “Los Napoles”.
11. GUATEMALA- “Roza” Guatemala has sent films two of the past three years. I hate predicting the same film two years in a row, but Guatemala has been quiet (Jayro Bustamente is working in the U.S. this year) and “Roza” (Locarno Open Doors 2022) seems to be their only viable option. The film follows a young indigenous laborer who returns to his Guatemalan village only to find his wife and family unenthusiastic about his return. The film had its Guatemalan premiere in October 2022 (the “start” of the Oscar year begins December 1, 2022) but it could qualify if it got a qualifying release in local cinemas later. Less likely: documentary “A Song Left Recorded”, about two aging musicians, or low-budget crime drama “Misogyny”. Or, like most years, they may skip.
12. HAITI- "Mountains” Impoverished, unstable Haiti sent two films to the Oscars, in 2017 and 2021. As I ’mentioned last year, they have a big film in post-production- “July 7”- about the 2021 assassination of Preisdent Jovenel Moise but there don’t seem to be any updates since last summer. If Haiti does choose to submit, it will be "Mountains", a majority U.S. production directed by Haitian-American Monica Sorelle. It follows a Haitian-American immigrant family, appears to be mostly in Haitian Creole, and has been a critical success at Tribeca and Toronto...but may not be considered "Haitian" enough.
13. HONDURAS- “Berta, Soy Yo” Honduras submitted films three times between 2017-2020, but they’ve been absent the past two years. I don’t think they’ll send anything this year either but their best option would be “Berta, Soy Yo”, a documentary which attempts to solve the murder of indigenous activist Berta Caceres via clues left behind by her crusading work.
14. MEXICO- “Noise” (Ruido) Mexico announced a six or seven-film shortlist on August 29 (there seems to be some confusion whether “Northern Skies Over Empty Space” is on the Oscar list or if it was only submitted for the Goyas). Of note, Mexico usually picks a movie backed by Netflix and four of the films (The Great Seduction, Noise, Que Viva Mexico! and Where the Tracks End) are already streaming. So, assuming “Northern Skies” isn’t competing and that “Que viva Mexico!” isn't competitive due to poor reviews and the ire of the Mexican President, we have five choices. Despite very good reviews, horror flick “Huesera” would be an odd choice and comedy “The Great Seduction” (costarring Yalitza Aparicio) doesn’t look serious enough, which leaves us with three strong options. In third place, “Where the Tracks End” is a simple story with cute kids about a dedicated teacher in a rural area. This formula worked for “Lunana”, but the film will likely come third place. So, will Mexico select Netflix’s “Noise”, about a woman searching for her missing daughter? Or quiet family drama “Totem”? I think they’ll send one to the Oscars and one the to the Goyas. Though “Noise” worryingly failed to get a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Ariel Awards (Totem wasn’t eligible), I think Netflix and the universal subject matter will justify its selection. I predict “Totem” as both runner-up and Goya candidate.
15. NICARAGUA- “Daughter of Rage” (La hija de todas las rabias) Nicaragua hasn’t send a film to the Oscars since 2010 but “Daughter of Rage” is their highest-profile feature film in over a decade, earning a berth at San Sebastian 2022 and a coveted Premios Platino nomination for Best First Feature. The story, about an impoverished mother and daughter working in a dangerous landfill, would represent a welcome return for Nicaragua.
16. PANAMA- “Sister & Sister” (Las hijas) Panama likely has a two-way race between drama “Sister & Sister” (SXSW), a coming-of-age story about two teenaged sisters on a road trip to find their estranged father, and wrestling documentary “Nation of Titans”, which won the main award at Panama’s scaled down national film festival in 2023. Panama is partial to documentaries (three of their nine submissions were docs) but “Titans” takes a very ‘local’ theme (beloved local wrestlers) so I think the festival play of “Sister & Sister” will make that the winner. Other options: drama “Gauguin & the Canal” and documentary “Tito, Margot y yo”.
17. PARAGUAY- ”Guapo’y” Paraguay has sent six films since joining the Oscar race in 2015, and five of them have been decidedly “arthouse”. I was strongly predicting they would send “Boreal”, about Paraguay’s isolated Mennonite community, which recently appeared at a Locarno 2023 sidebar for “the most interesting independent films” from small Latin American countries. However, I was surprised it wasn’t on their three-film Goya list. The biggest Paraguayan movie of the year- “The List”- is being touted as the first-ever U.S.-Paraguayan co-production and essentially transports the “The Purge” to South America, as Paraguayans are given 12 hours to take revenge on a family with ties to the former dictatorship. I think it would qualify despite its American director, but it was also absent from the Goya list. The three Goya finalists- drama “Guapo’y”, claustrophobic horror film “The Apartment” and action sequel “Leal 2” will probably all submit themselves for the Oscar and “Guapo’y” is likely to be selected. Or, as in 2019, they could vote to send nothing at all. For now let’s say “Guapo’y” with “Boreal” the runner-up.
18. PERU- “Willaq Pirqa” Last year, I predicted “La pampa” (The Invisible Girl), a critically acclaimed human trafficking drama, which finally premiered in Peruvian cinemas in 2023 and is now of the year’s three frontrunners. It’s main competition comes from two indigenous films- the Quechua language “Willaq Pirqa”, about cinema coming to an indigenous community that doesn’t speak Spanish, and the Aymara-language “Yana-Wara” which has a tragic, sentimental backstory. Filming started in 2021 by up-and-coming 34-year old indigenous director Oscar Catacora (His tragically sad “Winaypacha” represented Peru in 2018). He died unexpectedly of appendicitis when he was unable to get medical attention in time, and his uncle (also a director) completed his film, about a respected elder accused of murdering his granddaughter. It’s premiering at the Lima Film Festival in August, but Peruvian films often have a year-long delay, making it doubtful it will be eligible this year. Peru’s 2017 submission had played at festivals two years before it was selected! “Willaq” won the major prizes at last year’s Lima Film Festival and has been a minor box-office hit, and is confirmed to have gotten a cinematic release. Rounding out the Top 5 for Peru: Spanish-language drama “Diogenes” (Malaga) and another indigenous tale, “Shipibos Stories” (Lima), in the Shipibo language spoken by roughly 30,000 people. UPDATE: “Willaq Pirqa” was selected to represent Peru at the Spanish Goya Awards but was not on the Oscar shortlist, which received a great deal of criticism in Peru. According to one source, “Willaq Pirqa” was disqualified by the Peruvian Academy because it entered and lost the race to “Moon Heart” last year before changing its release date and becoming a hit in December 2022. “La Pampa” was also on the Goya list but not the Oscar lost, possibly for the same reasons. Peru selected dark family comedy “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli” for the Oscars which I had never heard of. The fact that “Willaq Pirqa” beat “Torbilio” and “La Pampa” for the Goyas shows it did in fact have very strong support.
19. PUERTO RICO- “La pecera” Puerto Rico was uninvited from the Oscars for ridiculous and obscure reasons in 2010 when U.S. territories were banned from the competition- even though Puerto Rico is the only one of the five U.S. territories that has a film industry. This happened even though other territories like Greenland (Denmark) and Hong Kong (China) with a similar status are welcome to submit films and in spite of the fact that Puerto Rico earned an Oscar nomination (during the 1989/1990 race) when countries like Egypt, Philippines and Venezuela never have. This year Puerto Rico had a great film year, and if they were allowed back at the Oscars I think they’d send “La pecera”, a wholly Puerto Rican film that competed at Sundance. It’s the story of a woman who returns to her home in Puerto Rico when her cancer returns, and reviews have been great. But with “Without Prescription” (Audience Award, SXSW 2022) and “The Kings of Salsa”, which prominently showcases Puerto Rican music, this would have been a very competitive year.
20. SURINAME- Nothing Tiny Suriname (pop: 610,000) is the smallest country in the region ever to enter the Oscar race. They entered just once during the pandemic, in 2020. As far as I know, they don’t have any films this year that would be eligible.
21. URUGUAY- “Milonga” A lot of people are predicting that JA Bayona’s “Society of the Snow” will represent Uruguay and possibly win the Oscar. I disagree. Of course, I agree that “Society of the Snow” could potentially win an Oscar. Bayona is a brilliant director and the story of Uruguay’s Flight 571 is one of the greatest survival stories of the 20th century (most people know it as the flight from the movie “Alive”). And it’s a defining moment of Uruguayan history. But if it’s chosen, it will need to be selected by Bayona’s native Spain, because “Snow” is a majority Spanish-production. The directors, writers and producers are all Spanish. Only one executive producer, the cinematographer and a few actors are Uruguayan. That’s not enough to establish “creative control” according to AMPAS. So, I think Uruguay will select either “Milonga”, a tango drama starring Paulina Garcia (“Gloria”) and Cesar Troncoso (a local star who has been in at least half a dozen Uruguayan submissions) filled with music and dance, or documentary “Portrait of My Father”, featuring a filmmaker trying to solve the mystery of his own father’s suicide. I have teen friendship drama “Nina & Emma” in third and, because Uruguay likes to send comedies, “Temas propios” in fourth. UPDATE: Never underestimate Uruguay’s desire to send comedies almost every year. They sent “Temas propios”…”Milonga” was on the list of considered films. As I predicted, “Society of the Snow” was not.
22. VENEZUELA- “Shadow of the Sun” (La Sombra del Sol) Venezuelan filmmakers continue to make great films despite political and economic problems at home. The annual Festival del Cine Venezolano is the main pre-cursor for Venezuela and this year’s big winner, “Simon”, was a shock because it’s fervently anti-government, focusing on a Venezuelan activist seeking asylum in the United States. I’m not sure if Venezuela’s selection committee is pro- or anti-regime (or neutral) but I’ve heard “Simon” is great but mostly in English. I think that three films from this year’s festival- “El salto de los Angeles”, “Shadow of the Sun” (which won two of the smaller Best Film prizes) and “Sons of the Revolution” are the strongest candidates, alongside the winner of the 2022 festival (“Me & the Beasts”) that was finally released in Venezuelan cinemas in 2023. All four are in with a chance but I’m predicting “Shadow of the Sun”, about two brothers- one deaf, one hearing- who enter a music contest together. It won four awards at the Venezuelan Film Festival and Venezuela may be influenced by “CODA”’s Best Picture victory two years ago. I have “Sons of the Revolution” in second place because it seems like the sort of grim drama that the Venezuelan Academy usually goes for. It’s about twenty years in the lives of two very different individuals born on the same day…but it’s more political than what Venezuela usually chooses and it only won awards for its actresses. I’m personally hoping for “Me & the Beasts”, a quirky comedy, but it doesn’t look serious enough.
POSSIBLE DEBUTS:
El Salvador is the only country in Latin America that has never sent a film to the Oscars. They actually had suitable contenders in 2018 ("La palabra de Pablo", which I loved), 2021 ("El suspiro del silencio") and 2022 ("Sueños Ilegales") but nothing really promising that would encourage them to debut this year.
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