Oscar International Film Predictions- Western Europe

 

Austria- OFFICIAL: “The Devil’s Bath”  Austria selected creepy costume drama “The Devil’s Bath”- by the directors of “Goodnight Mommy” – before I had a chance to research Austria. “The Devil’s Bath” won Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards and got an Amazon release….but its critical reviews talk more about the beautiful tech credits than the film, which is about a village woman with dark thoughts. I probably would have predicted father-son drama “Rickerl” (which won Best Director, Screenplay and Actor) instead.

Belgium- “Young Hearts” I’m hearing most people say that Belgium is likely to choose “Julie Keeps Quiet” (Cannes), a tense drama about a #MeToo situation at  girl’s sports team, made by a Flemish director but reportedly filmed in a mix of the country’s two official languages. The fact that the famed Dardenne Brothers co-produced the film will help a lot, but there are several Belgian films that seem to have better reviews like “Amal” (Tallinn Black Nights), about a beloved Belgian teacher who falls afoul of fundamentalist Muslim students, “Night Call”, an exciting new thriller, “Skunk”, about a boy from a dysfunctional family and “Young Hearts” (Berlin), an LGBT teen drama written by Lukas Dhont (“Girl”). These are likely to be the Top Five and it will ultimately probably come down to “Amal”, “Julie” and “Young Hearts”. “Amal” may not be PC enough. I’m predicting Belgium will hope lightning strikes twice for Dhont and send the adolescent love story “Young Hearts”….with “Julie” a very, very close second.

Denmark- “The Girl with the Needle” I was researching Denmark when they announced their three-film shortlist on August 22. I was going to predict “Sons” (Berlin), plus two films with unclear release dates- “The Quiet Ones” (Toronto) and “The Girl with the Needle” (Cannes), with “Kingmaker” (Mørkeland) as my alternate. In the end, “Sons” made the list as did “Girl with the Needle” which must be getting a qualifying release ahead of its January 2025 release in Denmark. “Quiet Ones” will premiere on October 31st, making it eligible next year. Of course, I should have realized that the Nordic countries have an unofficial rule that there needs to be gender equity….so the third shortlist slot went to female-helmed documentary “Echo of You”. This should be an easy win for the buzzy B&W period drama “The Girl with the Needle” (also being discussed as a possibility for Poland, though it really should represent Denmark) about an impoverished woman who comes across a dodgy adoption agency in post-WWI Denmark. Gustav Möller, who made the wonderful shortlisted thriller “The Guilty”, hasn’t gotten as strong reviews for his sophomore effort “Sons”, about a corrections officer who encounters a man from her secret past. “Echo” is a well-reviewed documentary about the elderly. But the qualifying release makes this obvious: “Needle” is representing Denmark this year.

Finland- “Family Time” Finland will likely have a difficult time choosing between two contenders, in their two official languages- the Finnish-language “Family Time” and the Swedish-language “Stormskerry Maja”. “Family Time”, a dark comedy set amidst a family reunion at Christmas, was the surprise winner at the Finnish Jussi Awards, defeating Aki Kaurismaki’s “Fallen Leaves” for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay. “Stormskerry Maja”, a nearly 3-hour 19th century costume drama set in the Swedish-speaking Aland Islands, has been a box-office hit in 2024 and tells of a feminist awakening. We usually have a glut of long historical dramas so I’m really hoping that “Family Time” (Berlin) gets this, even though I know “Stormskerry” is the favorite. Unlikely but possible: Cold War dramedy “The Missile”, polyamory drama “Four Little Adults” (whose director was picked in 2019) and environmentalist documentary “Once Upon A Time in the Forest”.

France- “Emilia Perez” Last year, France was much criticized at home and abroad because they “lost the Oscar” by submitting pretentious foodie drama “Taste of Things” over murder mystery “Anatomy of a Fall”, which ended up with five Oscar nominations (and one Oscar). It’s true that “Taste” was a terrible choice (it wasn’t very good and couldn’t even manage a Best Pic nomination at the French Cesars the following year)….but I won’t be so hard on the French. Hindsight is 20-20 and “Taste of Things” had just won Best Director at Cannes….so some critics clearly loved it. France has multiple films every year that could legitimately compete for an Oscar nomination so this is always a very difficult decision for France. This year, France has revamped its selection process (again) and they claim to really be in it to win….which means they will try to figure out what AMPAS voters will vote for, rather than the film they like best. While a shortlist of 3-5 films will be announced in September that could potentially include “The Beast” and “Souleymayne’s Story” or, less likely, “Rosalie”, “Yannick” and/or “Le roman de Jim”, the French press has already made it clear that the committee will unofficially be choosing between Jacques Audiard’s weird Mexican crime drama-transgender-comedy-musical “Emilia Perez” and 3-hour “ultra-French” box-office hit “The Count of Monte Cristo”. This will create an existential dilemma for France. “Emilia Perez” is a critical darling that will have the backing of Netflix, which will release the film in November, guaranteeing at least a shortlist spot. It has a French director (Audiard) who has one Oscar nomination for “The Prophet”, and who probably would have more if “The Beat That My Heart Skipped” (defeated by Oscar nominee “Joyeux Noel”) or “Rust and Bone” (defeated by the shortlisted “Intouchables”) had been submitted by France. And a mostly French crew. But “Emilia”, about a Mexican crime lord who becomes a woman, is in Spanish, set in Mexico and stars an international cast of mostly American, Spanish and Latin American actors, including Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez and Edgar Ramirez. “The Count of Monte Cristo” practically screams “FRENCH”! Based on the beloved Dumas novel, it has been deliriously popular with French critics and audiences, is expected to appeal to older Oscar voters (who are gradually becoming less influential) and is visually the more impressive film. Perhaps more importantly, some French people would rather have an authentically “French” film represent them than a film in Spanish. So, what will France do? There are good reasons to choose both films and this will be close. But France hasn’t won since 1993 (“Indochine”). Since that time, almost all of their Western European rivals – Austria, Denmark, Italy, Netherlands (twice), Germany and Spain (three times) plus the UK (last year)- have gotten an Oscar while they go without. For this reason, I think the fact that Audiard made his Mexican film in France with a French team will be enough to defeat “The Count of Monte Cristo”…but I’m not confident.  

Germany- "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Written on 8/20) German Films announced that 13 films were submitted to represent Germany in 2025, ranging from big festival films to obscure unknowns that don’t seem to have screened commercially. Perhaps most interestingly, three films are by immigrant directors from the Islamic world. Here’s how I see the list:

Not A Chance: Drama “Silence” (Stille) and documentary “Femocracy 2” (Die Unbeugsamen 2 - Guten Morgen, ihr Schonen) have almost no digital footprint (“Silence” appears to have been sitting on a shelf for years) and aren’t high-profile enough no matter how good (or bad) they might be. As for comedy “Two to One”, reviews aren’t Oscar-worthy and it was probably only submitted because it stars Sandra Huller, and Goethe biopic “The Glory of Life” will be of little interest to U.S. audiences and managed only a single minor nomination (Costume Design) at this year’s German Film Awards.

Highly Unlikely: Family dramedy “Sad Jokes” (Toronto 2024) has good reviews but looks far too small to represent Germany.  Nazi drama “Stella: A Life”, about a Jewish singer who collaborates with the Nazis to protect herself, has a baity plot but also didn’t get nominated in any of the major categories at the German Film Awards (it got four tech nods) and is reportedly a “difficult watch”….so it probably isn’t liked enough. “Hollywoodland” (Venice 2023), which was filmed by an Egyptian director in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal, looks fascinating but documentaries always have an uphill battle to represent competitive countries like Germany.

Dark Horses: “From Hilde, With Love” (Berlinale ’24 Main Competition), “Goebbels & the Fuhrer” and “In the Blind Spot” (Berlin Encounters 2023) will probably all have their advocates. But while “Goebbels” tries to channel Oscar nominee “Downfall”, this film about the relationship between Hitler & Goebbels is probably too divisive and controversial. “In the Blind Spot” won Best Director and Best Screenplay and the “Bronze” Film Award (basically 3^rd Place Best Picture of the Year) for its story of a German film crew visiting a Kurdish village in Turkey. With many people comparing it to Middle Eastern tale “Sacred Fig”, which is sucking up all the publicity and energy, I think it has little chance of being picked, although director Ayşe Polat is one of only three women in the race, and the only one seriously in the running. “Hilde”, about the anti-Nazi resistance, has gotten mostly good reviews internationally…but weaker ones in Germany compared to the others….

Frontrunners: That means the three clear frontrunners are new docudrama “Die Ermittlung”, German Film Awards Best Picture winner “Dying” and Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”. “Sacred Fig”. “Sacred Fig” was the surprise entry on the list since the acclaimed film- an Iranian production shot in secret that infuriated the regime- had no clear connection to Germany. But director Mohammad Rasoulof has reportedly been living in Germany since fleeing Iran early this year…which technically may make him eligible per AMPAS rules. Despite not actually being “German”, the selection of “Sacred Fig” would be incredibly symbolic and the film, about a paranoid official who believes his wife or daughters have stolen his gun amid domestic political unrest, has the best reviews of the three. But 4-hour docudrama “Die Ermittlung” is about the Auschwitz trials (and Germany has its best luck with WWII movies) and 3-hour family drama “Dying” won the most important precursor, because three of the past four German Film Prize winners were sent to the Oscars (“Dear Thomas” was not, but it was directly against “I’m Your Man”). Final Answer: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” gets this, followed by “Dying”, “Die Ermittlung”, “From Hilde With Love” and “In the Blind Spot” rounding out the Top 5.

Greece- “Murderess” Greece’s Iris Awards were dominated by two female-helmed films that are eligible this year- “Animal” (Locarno 2023) and “Murderess”. “Animal” won the major awards (Picture, Director, Screenplay and two of the four acting awards) while “Murderess” won five tech prizes…but “Murderess” won the key award at the Thessaloniki Film Festival, which in previous years would have made it the automatic Greek nominee. I think dour historical drama “Murderess” is a better fit for the Oscars than the youthful “Animal”, which is about the highs and lows of a group of disaffected youth working at a popular resort. “Murderess” is about the difficulties of Greek wives and daughters living in a traditional region circa 1900. I would also hope they consider “My Summer with Carmen”, a nudist gay comedy that has charmed audiences around the world, including the Audience Award at Thessaloniki and nominations in almost every category at the Greek Film Awards (though it won nothing). I’m rooting for it. Dark horses: documentaries “Stray Bodies” (reproductive freedom) and “Tack” (the #MeToo movement), as well as family drama “Kyuka” and weird Greek New Wave “Arcadia” (Berlin)….but I think one of the three frontrunners should get this. In other news, there’s apparently some drama going on…it was reported that the Greek Ministry of Culture suddenly replaced its selection committee, while the Greek Film Academy asked the Ministry to turn the selection process over to them.  UPDATE: Greece is a mess. The Greek Ministry of Culture appointed a committee and sent out screeners before claiming (falsely) that this was done "by accident" and appointed a completely new committee. As a result, almost all eligible directors have withdrawn their film EXCEPT "Murderess". The Greek Film Academy has asked Greece not to send any film this year. So, watch this space. 

Iceland- “When the Light Breaks” Since 2002, Baltasar Kormákur has been picked to represent Iceland four times (the best was “The Sea” though it was “The Deep” that got a shortlist mention) and Oscar Short Film nominee Runar Runarsson was picked twice. These two are the obvious Icelandic front runners for dramas“Touch” (Kormakur) and “When the Light Breaks” (Runarsson). Runarsson’s film, about a teenaged girl dealing with the twin emotions of love and grief, opened Cannes Un Certain Regard. “Touch”, about a man searching for his long-lost love, has a higher review score on IMDB and letterboxd, and already got a limited U.S. release, which has really helped films get shortlisted recently. It also co-stars Masahiro Motoki, star of the Oscar winning “Departures”. It has a lot of English (and Japanese) but I’m not sure how much. Because of that, I’ll predict “Light”…but I’m not confident.

IRELAND- OFFICIAL: They selected “Kneecap” So, on August 2^nd, Ireland became the first country to announce their pick for the Oscars, with cheeky comedy “Kneecap”, which got praised from audiences at both SXSW and Sundance, and won Best Irish Film at Galway. In the past, Ireland only produced Irish-language features once every couple of years…this year, there are no less than five Irish-language premieres. “Kneecap” is probably the only one getting a release in Irish cinemas this Oscar year which means we should have a pretty competitive race in 2025 between the other four- “Fidil Ghorm” and “Froggie” (from Galway), “ and creepy horror-dramas “Frewaka” (Locarno) and “The Ghost”.

ITALY- "" I'll add Italy after their announce their traditional "longlist" in mid-September. 

LUXEMBOURG- “The Land in the Shadows” Most of Luxembourg’s film input are minority co-productions with other countries, with Luxembourg frequently being used as a source of funding and filming locations. Ever since AMPAS disqualified “Your Name is Justine” for being insufficiently “Luxembourgian”, Luxembourg has opted for actual national films made by Luxembourgian directors (the one exception was “Tel Aviv is On Fire”, which I was surprised AMPAS accepted). That means the obvious contender this year is “The Land in the Shadows”, a film made in the local dialect, about intrigue, xenophobia and politicking in a close-knit rural village. Runner-ups: Faustian fantasy-thriller “She is Conann” and old-fashioned animated film “A Boat in the Garden” are both majority LUX productions….but they have French directors.

MALTA- Nothing Malta sent films three times (2014, 2021 and 2022), and deserved to be nominated for “Luzzu”. Strangely enough, after “Luzzu” did so well at the Sundance Film Festival, international film production in Malta has boomed…but production of local Maltese-language cinema hasn’t produced any big films on the level of “Luzzu”. “Seven Doors”, a film about the seven deadly sins, premiered in October 2023 (which is too early) and the next Maltese-language production – “Castillo”- is scheduled to be released “soon”…but probably too late to compete this year. So, Malta will be absent again.

NETHERLANDS- “White Flash” As usual, the Netherlands became one of the first countries to announce a shortlist, picking eight mostly obscure films. The list consists of two documentaries (“Gerlach” and “Lost City”), one animated children’s film (“Fox and Hare Save the Forest”) plus a crime drama (“Hardcore Never Dies”), two dramedies about aging (“Memory Lane” and “Last Call”) and two dramas about grief (“Milk” and “White Flash”). Here’s how I see the race:

Frontrunners-    “Milk” and “White Flash”

Could Surprise- “Lost City” and “Memory Lane”

Highly Unlikely- “Gerlach” and “Hardcore Never Dies”

No Chance-        “Fox & Hare” and “Last Call”

So, this looks like a two-way race between those two grief dramas- supposed favorite “Milk” (which premiered at a Venice sidebar last year) and “White Flash”, starring Renee Soutendijk, having a real career renaissance after starring in last year’s underrated Dutch submission, “Sweet Dreams”. The Netherlands often picks films about death and grief and “White Flash” is an intriguing new film about euthanasia, about aging parents (including Renee) who are confronted with their chronically depressed son’s decision to proceed with an assisted suicide. The Netherlands often picks brand-new films and the film will premiere four days before the deadline. But most people in the know are predicting “Milk”, about a woman grieving the loss of her stillborn baby, who begins selling her breast milk. (“Milky Way”, aka “Milk” is a finalist for Israel so we could potentially have two breast milk submissions). I’m pretty sure one of these will be the one, but “Memory Lane”, about a man and his wife with Alzheimers on a road trip, has very good reviews and could be a surprise pick.  

Norway- “Sex” Norway is supposed to be the most competitive of the Scandinavian countries this year and there will be competition just to get on the 3-film shortlist they traditionally announce in September. I predict this will be Farhadi-esque elementary school drama “Armand” (Cannes), animated documentary “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” and the aptly-titled “Sex” (Berlin), a comedy about sexuality and masculinity. Others are predicting “Quisling”, a big biopic set to debut in September, “Arctic Convoy”, an expensive film about fighting the Nazis or Sundance documentary “New Kind of Wilderness” could make the shortlist…but the first three are my predictions. So, what will Norway pick? Last year, the Norwegian Academy made a bizarre decision, choosing a nature documentary that made Norway look incredibly beautiful but which, as a film, did not work on any level and was by far the weakest of Norway’s three shortlisted films. Ultimately, I expect this will come down to “Armand” and “Sex”, both of which would make excellent choices. I think the fact that Norway got its only nomination of the last ten years for “Worst Person in the World”, another dramatic comedy, will give the advantage to “Sex”…but “Armand”, about adults trying to understand the politicking of a kindergarten classroom, is also highly likely. “Ibelin”, an animated doc about the friends around the world affected by the death of a reclusive Norwegian gamer after his untimely death. Not eligible unless they get a qualifying release: “Loveable” (Venice) which will premiere in October, and “Love”, which will premiere in December. They are early frontrunners for Norway in 2025.

Portugal- “Grand Tour” Portugal announced a shortlist of five films, including two by well-established directors- Miguel Gomes’ “Grand Tour”, which won Best Director at Cannes, and Luis Filipe Rocha’s “Your Face Will Be the Last”, based on a Portuguese novel. Both directors have been picked before and both have their critics…but Portuguese films rarely win international awards so the Cannes Best Director win will obviously make “Grand Tour”, about a man following his runaway bride around Asia circa 1917, a finalist. The other three films- “The Buriti Flower”, “The Fortunate Ones” and “Manga d’Terra”- are less Portuguese. “Buriti” is largely Brazilian (though it does have a Portuguese co-director) while the other two have Swiss-born directors. Of these three “dark horses”, the best reviews have clearly gone to “The Fortunate Ones” and director Jeanne Waltz has lived and worked in Portugal for three decades. Over the years, I’ve seen hundreds of Oscar submissions from over 100 countries…and the worst one was Miguel Gomes’ “Our Beloved Month of August”….so I’m hoping for “The Fortunate Ones”, about an eccentric young woman who becomes part of Lisbon’s immigrant Cape Verdean community. It would be a much better pick for Oscar. But it will clearly come second to “Grand Tour”, with the Brazilian “Buriti” in a very distant third.

Spain- "House on Fire" This is the last country I’m drafting before an international vacation so will keep this fairly short. Spain traditionally releases a 3-film shortlist and competition is fierce for that list this year. I expect it will include Catalan family dramedy “House on Fire”, Iciar Bollain’s new sexual harassment drama “Soy Nevenka”, and “The Blue Star” (both San Sebatian), a drama about a struggling musician on a road trip to Argentina, whose director has confirmed their Oscar aspirations and which has gotten a U.S. release. “The Teacher Who Promised the Sea” is a strong alternate for the list. “Marco”, a new biopic about a fraudulent Holocaust survivor, is set to premiere in Venice and could very well compete if it gets a qualifying release. Dark horses: “La casa” (Malaga), “Jokes & Cigarettes” (a Goya Best Pic nominee), “Mamifera” (SxSW) “The Other Way Around” (Cannes) and the upcoming “The Red Virgin”, though I doubt any of them could seriously be picked as the Spanish submission.

Sweden- “Crossing” Sweden probably has the easiest decision in Western Europe because no Swedish film this year has the profile and reviews of Levan Akin’s “Crossing”, a beautiful road movie about a conservative Georgian aunt searching for her transgender niece who fled to Turkey after being kicked out by her family many years before. She sets out with a young, impulsive neighbor to Turkey where they both find undergo a journey of self-discovery. Akin’s “And Then We Danced” represented Sweden (and deserved a shortlist spot) in 2019. The only question is who will join ”Crossing” on Sweden’s 3-film shortlist. The two frontrunners would appear to be biopic “Dag Hammerskjold: Fight for Peace”, about the Swedish UN Secretary-General who died in a mysterious Cold War plane crash, and documentary-cum-road-movie “The Last Journey”, about an elderly man and his son travelling around France. This seems like a solid lineup for the shortlist, with rom-com “The Hypnosis” and crime drama “Miseria” as alternates. However, all five of these frontrunner films are directed by men and I’m not sure that’s allowed…..So, “Dag Hammerskjold” could be replaced by the Sami (Lapp) indigenous drama “Stolen” or toxic masculinity drama “Hunters in a White Field” just to ensure gender parity. But I loved “Crossing” and it's definitely being selected. Final answer.

Switzerland- “Reinas” Swiss Films took the unusual step of announcing a “shortlist” of two films, from a list of five submissions. I’ve always felt that one of the reasons for publicly announcing a shortlist is to raise publicity for all the national candidates. By choosing two, you’re creating an unusual situation with one winner and one loser. So this is an odd move for a country that has a lot of candidates to choose from. The two candidates are French comedy “Dog on Trial” and Peruvian drama “Reinas”, both directed by female, foreign-born directors with Swiss nationality. Of these two, “Reinas”, about a family fleeing the country during the political chaos of the 1990s, is clearly the more serious and better-reviewed film. “Dog”’s only chance is if Peru nominates it first. It’s surprising that the German-speaking region was ignored, including films like Swiss Film Prize Best Documentary winner “The Hearing” or “The Sparrow in the Chimney”, the only Swiss-majority film competing in the Main Competition at Locarno and set to premiere in Swiss cinemas on September 19^th.

UNITED KINGDOM- “On Becoming A Guinea Fowl” The UK will return to the Oscar race this year as “returning champion” for the first time ever.  Everyone is predicting this will be an easy win for “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl”, a film in Bemba and English that won Best Director at Cannes Un Certain Regard. Director Rungano Nyoni is from Wales but is of Zambian heritage and was selected to represent the UK for her charming debut “I Am Not A Witch” in 2018. Her new film is a tragicomedy about how Zambian women are forced to put up with sexual abuse in a society (and in families) that doesn’t properly recognize it as a crime. That’s probably what the UK will choose, assuming it has enough Bemba to qualify. But I think this will be a closer race than people think thanks to the presence of “Santosh”, a crime drama about a female police constable which competed against “Guinea Fowl” at Un Certain Regard and is a majority UK production. UK-born and raised director Sandhya Suri made the film in Hindi, so there are no language issues. So, it’s an exciting race. Dark horses: “To A Land Unknown” is such a multinational production that it likely wouldn’t qualify for any country….but Cineuropa lists UK as the majority country, and it also does for Icelandic co-production “Touch” (see ICELAND). There don’t seem to be any promising features in Welsh or Scots Gaelic this year.

Oscar International Film Predictions- the Asia/Pacific Region

Here are my predictions for the 28 countries of the Asia-Pacific region....

Afghanistan- “The Sharp Edge of Peace” Since the overthrow of the pro-“modernity” Ghani regime by Taliban thugs in 2021, Afghanistan’s small film industry has been decimated as most artists fled the country. Afghanistan had been producing beautiful low-budget films for the past 20 years. While films have not been completely banned like during the first Taliban occupation, filmmakers have been told that women cannot be on screen, nor can there be a musical soundtrack, and they are using the former Film Studies program to produce Islamic films. It would be wonderful (but surprising) if Afghan filmmakers in exile could form a committee to highlight Afghan cinema. They could choose “The Sharp Edge of Peace”, about Afghan women trying to work within the system to obtain some semblance of women’s rights in contemporary Afghanistan. Currently based abroad, director Roya Sadat is one the country’s leading female directors and one of her films was submitted to the Oscars in 2017. “Kamay”, a documentary analyzing the suicide of a young university student before the Taliban takeover, would also be a worthy submission. It should be noted that an Afghan-British director, Elham Ehsas, was shortlisted in the Best Live-Action Short category last year. Afghanistan is still present on the international film scene.

Australia- “The Wolves Always Come At Night” You’d think most of English-speaking Australia’s submission would come from the Aboriginal communities….but most of them are the result of Australian directors working abroad. Only one of their last ten submissions was Aboriginal (“Charlie’s Country”) and only one was an immigrant story (“Shayda”). The other eight were made in Afghanistan (twice), Bhutan, Cambodia, Italy, Laos, Macedonia and Vanuatu. We could add Greece or Mongolia to that list this year. Documentary “The Wolves Always Come At Night” was made by Berlin-based Australian filmmaker Gabrielle Brady in Mongolia. It’s a docudrama similar in style to “Story of the Weeping Camel”, this time following a nomadic family affected by climate change. It’s set to premiere in Toronto and it’s unclear if it will get a theatrical release before September 30. If it doesn’t, I expect Canada will go with “Brando With a Glass Eye”, an unorthodox thriller made (in Greek) by a Greek-Australian director in New York.

Bangladesh- “A House Named Shahana” Bangladesh is in the middle of a political crisis, but I’m optimistic things will settle down in September. Bangladesh hasn’t missed an opportunity to send a film since 2011. Bangladesh is one of the only countries that has never sent a female-helmed film so I’m hoping they send “A House Named Shahana”, about a divorced woman who refuses to let social stigma affect her life in the conservative town where she lives. It’s certainly the best-reviewed Bangladeshi film of the year, though it doesn’t seem to have been released locally, and time is short. Director Mostafa Sarwar Farooki has been picked three times – more than any other Bangladeshi director – and he has two family dramas eligible this year (“Something Like An Autobiography” and “Last Defenders of Monogamy”) and Bangladesh has also had two films in competition at the (heavily boycotted) Moscow Film Festival (“Scent of Sin” and “Nirvana”). None of these four have great reviews, but I could see them 2024 Moscow Jury Prize winner “Nirvana” (a silent b&w film) or the scandalous “Scent of Sin”, which was finally released this year after months of haggling over its sexual frankness. Mafia drama “Toofan” is one of the biggest box-office hits of all time in Bangladesh and though it’s not what Bangladesh typically sends, it has gotten good reviews and could compete in a weak year if “Shahana” is not eligible.

Bhutan- “Agent of Happiness” Tiny Bhutan has only sent three films to the Oscars but the last two (both by Pawo Choyning Dorji) were shortlisted (and “Lunana” was nominated!). Bhutan launched an open call for submissions for the first time last year (receiving four, although the titles were not publicly announced) meaning that they might be in the race to stay…This year, I think they’ll send Sundance documentary “Agent of Happiness”, co-directed by a young Bhutanese from the country’s minority Hindu community and a Hungarian. Khynetse Norbu (“The Cup”, “Travellers & Magicians”), who in my opinion is Bhutan’s superior director, has a new movie called “Pig at the Crossing” but this seems to have premiered using an experimental digital worldwide release and thus would appear to be ineligible.

Cambodia- “Rendez-vous with Pol Pot” With film production mostly limited to gruesome horror movies and a few rom-coms, Cambodia failed to send a film last year for the first time since 2014…just one year after deservingly making the shortlist for the decidedly not Cambodian “Return to Seoul”. This year, Rithy Panh (who has made three of Cambodia’s eleven submissions) had a new drama at Cannes (it’s not a documentary, though it’s been incorrectly described as one) about a troupe of three French journalists who are invited to interview the genocidal dictator in the 1970s. Unlikely: horror film “The Night Curse of Reatrei” has gotten quite reviews and been exported to other countries in East Asia. 

China- “” TBD....China is difficult because they don't actually pick Oscar-worthy films but seemingly choose a big-budget film at ransom. 

Fiji- Nothing  Fiji sent a film once in 2005 but they don’t have a developed native film industry and they won’t send anything this year.

Hong Kong- “All Shall Be Well” Hong Kong was disqualified last year because AMPAS alleged a conflict of interest because an unnamed actor from the winning film was on the selection committee…but they’ve confirmed their intention to return this year. Hong Kong has a wide-open race. Hong Kong’s Academy wavers between gritty triad dramas (3 times in the past ten years), commercial melodramas (three times…I didn’t like these at all), arthouse films selected for major festivals (3 times, including one Oscar nominee) and one big action flick. This year, they have six main contenders. In alphabetical order, they are (1)- “All Shall Be Well”, an LGBT inheritance drama that won the Teddy Award in Berlin and opened the 2024 Hong Kong Film Festival, (2)- “The Goldfinger”, an all-star triad crime drama reuniting the team of “Infernal Affairs” that inspired “The Departed”, (3)- “In Broad Daylight”, a locally-themed melodrama about abuses in elderly care homes and the Hong Kong health care system, (4)- “She’s Got No Name”, a Zhang Ziyi period melodrama that premiered Out of Competition at Cannes, (5)- “Time Still Turns the Pages”, a small family/school drama that was the only Hong Kong film nominated in the top category at the Golden Horse Awards, and (6)- “Twilight of the Warriors”, another all-star crime drama, but with less starpower and better reviews than “Goldfinger”. If they go with reviews, “All Shall Be Well”, “In Broad Daylight”, and “Time Still Turns the Pages” have the advantage. If they want something “big and fancy”, then they’ll pick between “The Goldfinger”, “She’s Got Your Name” and “Twilight of the Warriors”. There’s not really a middle ground this year and I could see Hong Kong picking any of these films (I haven’t seen them but I’m hoping for one of the three critically acclaimed ones).  Dark horses: Dante Lam’s “Bursting Point” got bad reviews, but his two previous Oscar submissions were also terrible so maybe that doesn’t matter. My prediction: a surprise win for “All Shall Be Well”, if the LGBT storyline doesn’t make them squeamish.  Runner-ups: (and almost equally likely): “Twilight of the Warriors” and “Time Still Turns the Pages”. But this will be close.  

India- “All We Imagine As Light” But I need some more time to think about this one....

Indonesia- “Andragogy” Indonesia is hard to predict because their Academy – unlike most - is open to all sorts of films and genres ranging from horror (2020) to box-office hit comedies (2022) to controversial arthouse (2019). For this reason, they send some of the most entertaining films each year (my favorite, by far, was “Marlina the Murderer”). They’ve got quite a few potential options this year, including (alphabetically) “Andragogy”, a topical drama about social media that premiered at last year’s Toronto Film Festival, “Borderless Fog”, a crime drama by a director who has been passed over before, “Falling in Love Like in Movies”, a well-reviewed comedy-drama, “Grave Torture”, a horror film by box-office draw Joko Anwar, “Ipar Adalah Maut”, a marriage melodrama, “13 Bombs”, an action flick by a previously selected director, “Women from Rote Island” which dominated the local film awards, and “Yohanna” (Rotterdam), about a nun who helps victims of child labor. At least four of these (“Fog”, “Andragogy”, “Falling in Love” and “Bombs”) have U.S. Netflix deals. Of these eight, I think the frontrunners are the two comedy-dramas, “Andragogy” and “Falling in Love” which have U.S. distribution deals, confirmed Indonesian cinematic releases, and some of the best reviews of the group. Add the Toronto film festival prestige, 17 Indonesian Film Awards nominations (it won just two), and the shades of “Teachers’ Lounge” and I think “Andragogy” will be the one. I predict the B&W arthouse of “Falling in Love” will come second, “Rote Island” (which I don’t think was released in cinemas) in third, “Grave Torture” fourth and “13 Bombs” rounding out the Top 5.

Japan- “Evil Does Not Exist” Last year, Japan had to choose between four likely Oscar nominees (“Boy and the Heron”, “Godzilla Minus One” and “Perfect Days”, which actually got Oscar nominations, plus Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Monster”) challenging the “one film per country” rule. But this year should be a much easier decision. Four of the past six years, Japan picked a film that competed for the Palme d’Or (and a fifth film, “Plan 75”, was in Un Certain Regard). But they had no films in Competition at Cannes (or Berlin) and the one UCR title (obscure queer drama “My Sunshine”) doesn’t look like an especially likely choice. But Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Evil Does Not Exist” premiered at Venice 2023, where it won the Grand Jury Prize and although it doesn’t have the same buzz as the inexplicably popular “Drive My Car”, reviews have been very, very good. It’s about a town threatened by a disruptive real estate project and it’s NOT three hours long so I’m far more interested in it than the overrated mess of “Car”. Japan often makes odd decisions but this year they really don’t have any other options nearly as good. Other films on their (internal) shortlist are likely to include WWII anime “Totto-Chan: The Little Girl at the Window” (Annecy), Takeshi Kitano’s new action movie “Kubi” (but the Japanese have never been fans of Kitano-san) and “All the Long Nights” a slice-of-life drama about two mismatched coworkers with anxiety disorders. But “Evil” should be an easy selection.

Kazakhstan- “The Divorce” Kazakhstan didn’t send a film last year, even though they had two very well-regarded entries, including “Bauryna Salu” (San Sebastian), which certainly had better reviews than most of their recent submissions. Some Kazakh filmmakers complained they weren’t even aware there was a call for entries (though they may be their fault). Still, it was only the second time since Kazakhstan joined in 2006 that they failed to enter…so I assume they’ll return this year. “Zhambyl- A New Era” is the sort of state-supported costume drama that they usually send….but this biopic of a revered 19^th century poet will likely be difficult to translate (poetry is hard) so I’m predicting they send “The Divorce”, a clever drama during the early days of Kazakhstan, which won Best Picture at the Shanghai Film Festival. Less likely: WWII drama “Qara Qyz”, bleak character study “Madina” (Tokyo), plus the prolific Adilkhan Yerzhanov has a new movie (“Steppenwolf”) about a missing child…but Kazakhstan usually ignores Yerzhanov (they submitted him once and rejected his submission last year).

Korea- “Exhuma” SouthKorea announced that it would be considering 15 films to represent the country at the Oscars. There don’t appear to be any strong Oscar contenders…but here’s my tiered ranking:

No Chance- “Cabriolet”, “Victory”, “Yeonryeon” These three obscure options- a cheerleader comedy, a road trip drama about a woman with cancer, and a film/director that I actually had to add to IMDB- hardly seem likely to be seriously considered.

Highly Unlikely- “I, Executioner”, “Our Season”, “Picnic” An action movie sequel, a tearjerker about the visit of a mother’s ghost, and a soap opera about elderly friends…..they don’t have the reviews or a high-enough profile to represent Korea. Also, the director of “I, Executioner” was just picked two years ago.

Long Shots- “Escape”, “FAQ”, “Revolver” These genre films – a children’s sci-fi movie, an exciting thriller about a North Korean defector and a revenge movie - have good reviews…but don’t seem serious enough to me to be picked.

Dark Horses- “Citizen of a Kind”, “House of the Seasons”, “Noryang, Deadly Sea” “Citizen of a Kind” is a genuine crowdpleaser about a single mom who takes revenge after being scammed. “House of the Seasons” is a sprawling family drama that Variety called “a beautifully poised debut” and that highlights Korean culture. “Noryang, Deadly Sea” is an impressive-looking, big-budget period drama about 16^th century military battles between Korea and Japan. But they all look like the ‘runner-ups’ for Korea in recent years. Korea tends to favor action/historical thrillers (but not costume dramas). The director of “Noryang” has come close to repping Korea twice for “War of the Arrows” and “The Admiral”…so he has a chance if the Korean Academy feels he is overdue.

Frontrunners- “12.12: the Day”, “Exhuma”, “Land of Happiness”. These are the three frontrunenrs. “12.12” and “Land of Happiness” are both about the 1979 political assassination of President Park Chung-hee, and Korea sent political thriller three of the past eight years. “12.12” was the highest-grossing Korean film of 2023, and “Exhuma” is (so far) the highest-grossing film of 2024. “Exhuma” is one of only two contenders that appeared at a major film festival (Berlin; “I Executioner” appeared out of competition at Cannes). “Land of Happiness” hasn’t premiered yet (it will be released August 14) so we don’t know how good it is…but it is the final film of “Parasite” star Lee Sun-kyun who was bullied into committing suicide by Korean police in 2023…so there’s quite a sentimental angle there.  “12.12” arguably has the best reviews and best matches what Korea usually sends…but because “12.12” and “Happiness” are so similar they may split the vote…so I think horror-drama “Exhuma” may emerge victorious. But I wouldn’t be surprised by any of these three.

Kyrgyzstan- “Bride Kidnapping” Kyrgyzstan sent a film by Aktan Abdykalykov for the fifth time last year and I thought “This is What I Remember” was his best ever. Unfortunately, it was disqualified over a release date issue but Kyrgyzstan launched a call for submissions last month so it seems they aren’t cross. In addition to Aktan’s five submissions, Kyrgyzstan has sent films made by his son Mirlan twice, so they’re sure to send “Bride Kidnapping” (Busan) about this terrible Kyrgyz custom that was also the subject of an Oscar Short Film nomination two years ago.  But the film faces stiff competition from box-office hit “Beyish” (aka Heaven is at Mother’s Feet), a national hit which has been billed as the biggest film in Kyrgyzstan’s cinematic history. It’s about a mentally challenged man who dreams of accompanying his elderly mother on a pilgrimage to Mecca. In any other year, “The Gift”, about a tomboy forced to take on male roles in the family, and “Error 404”, a psychological drama, would contend….but not against these two big movies.  UPDATE: Big hit "Heaven is at Mother's Feet" was selected.....Not a huge surprise. 

Laos- “The Signal” Communist Laos sent a film to the Oscars once in 2017 – horror-drama “Dearest Sister”, which exceeded my expectations. They have two films on the circuit this year, including another horror-drama (“The Signal”) which premiered in Laos in November after debuting at the Shanghai Film Festival. It’s about a village girl who becomes involved with a series of family mysteries when she begins working for a new family in the capital. “Satu- Year of the Rabbit” is also around, but it was made by a British director.

Malaysia- “Abang Adik” Could “Abang Adik” make Malaysian Oscar history? Like most years, the best Malaysian films are in Chinese, but the Malaysian Academy has only selected Malay-language films to represent the country. But “Abang Adik” is one of the first Chinese-language films to get a Best Pic nomination at the Malaysian Film Festival (non-Malay films used to be relegated to their own category) and it got a Netflix deal as well. “Adik”, about two orphaned brothers one of whom is deaf, is also easily the most acclaimed Malaysian film of the year (its rivals are “Snow in Midsummer” from Venice, but that’s in Chinese as well, and “Fire on Water”, which is in Tamil, another minority language). So Malaysia has a dilemma….choose an acclaimed film that is mostly in Chinese, choose a lesser-known Malay alternative (possibly Paralympics drama “Gold”), or take the year off (which they did in 2022). They’re all equally likely but I’m hoping Malaysia does the right thing.

Mongolia- “If Only I Could Hibernate” The favorite for Mongolia is “If Only I Could Hibernate” was one of the first Mongolian films to appear at Cannes, when it got an Un Certain Regard berth last year. It’s about a bright but troubled Mongolian teen whose mother suddenly leaves him in charge of the family while she goes to work in the countryside. It got good reviews and moved to Mongolian cinemas in early 2024. However, it’s not a sure thing…. previously submitted directors Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam (picked in 2022) and Erdenebileg Ganbold (picked in 2019) have new action-packed films set in the country’s nomadic countryside. I give Ganbold’s “Wolf Warriors”, a period epic set in 800 B.C., the edge over Baljinnyam’s “Mongol”, about political and romantic intrigue within a tight-knit nomadic community. I have “White Flag”, about modern female nomads, in 4^th place.

Nepal- “A Road to a Village” Nepal had no less than four exciting new films at major film festivals this past year- “Pooja Sir” (Venice Horizons 2024),  “Red Suitcase” (Venice Horizons 2023), “A Road to a Village” (Toronto 2023), “Shambhala" (Berlinale 2024). Three of these four (all but “Suitcase”) are made by respected national directors. The two older ones- horror-drama “Red Suitcase” and village drama “Road to a Village” are eligible this year. “Pooja” will almost certainly be eligible next year, while the status of “Shambhala” is unclear. When Nepal has an international arthouse option, they usually go for it…so “A Road to a Village”, a slow-paced film about how a new road affects a rural community- is the likely choice….but I’m rooting for the “Twilight Zone”-esque “Suitcase”. If they want to go with something more local (which is usually all they have), they’ll probably pick one of two social dramas- “Pujar Sarki” (caste discrimination) or “Dimag Kharab” (overseas employment).  

New Zealand- “Ka Whawhai Tonu” New Zealand has one of the easiest decisions of the year thanks to the box-office hit Maori historical epic “Ka Whawhai Tonu”, which has also gotten very good reviews. Set in 1864, its about battles between Maori and colonial New Zealand forces and it appears to be more than 50% in the Maori language.

Pakistan- “The Glassmaker” Pakistan often sends some of the most interesting and daring films each year. “Joyland” and “Circus of Life” were brilliant (“Circus” probably deserved the Oscar)….”In Flames”, though not my favorite, was an original genre effort. This year, the Pakistanis will probably send their first-ever hand-drawn animated film- “The Glassmaker”- said to be inspired by Studio Ghibli’s historical films. It’s been released in Pakistan in Urdu- and English-versions and Pakistan may try to submit it to launch a long-shot campaign for Best Animated Feature. That’s the likely submission but also in the running are (2^nd place) “Gunjal”, about the murder of a child labor activist, “Na Baligh Afraad”, a comedy about two teenagers discovering pornography, and “Yasmeen’s Element”, a drama about a rural schoolgirl directed by a Pakistan-American from Arkansas.  

Philippines- “GomBurZa” The Philippines usually opts for a film from a major international film festival or from their own domestic Cinemalaya indie film festival. Options from major film festivals are slim. Lav Diaz is premiering his latest 4-hour film, “Phantosmia”, at Venice and there is a teen pregnancy drama (“Sunshine”), but I doubt either will get a domestic release by September 30. “Fin” (aka “Love and Videotapes”) played at Cinemalaya 2023 (winning Best Director) and at Berlinale (in the 14+ Section) so that’s definitely a possibility. Last year, they went with Cinemalaya winner “The Missing” (a great choice!) and if they want a Cinemalaya indie, they could look at last year’s Jury Prize winner (“Ang Duyan ng Magiting” with Dolly DeLeon) or one of this year’s two big winners (“Tumandok” and “Kono basho”, which together won more than half the prizes)….but I can’t see that any of them got a domestic release either. So, they may be forced to send something a bit more commercial. “Firefly”, “GomBurZa” and “Mallari” each won Best Picture at a major Philippine awards show (Metro Manila, FAP and FAMAS respectively). “GomBurZa”, a historical drama about three Filipino priests martyred for standing up to Spanish colonial rule, was nominated at all four major national film awards (the three mentioned earlier plus Gawan Urian). I can confirm that all three are eligible. My predictions: the Philippines could struggle because they’ll want to send one of the films that may not have been released domestically, probably Cinemalaya winner “Tumandok” (The Inhabitants), a docudrama filmed with non-professional actors from the Ati indigenous community. So, I’m predicting “GomBurZa”, which has both been warmly received by critics and audiences and secured a Netflix deal in the U.S. I have “Tumandok” in second, “Firefly”, a fantasy-drama, in third, “Phantosmia” in fourth, and “Fin” (about a boy searching for his long-lost father) in fifth. Unlikely but possible: “Ang Duyan ng Magiting”, “Hyphen”, “Kono Basho” and documentary “Maria”.

Singapore- “Wonderland” Singapore has mostly produced minority co-productions this year, but they have two films about fathers and their kids. They could send “Tomorrow is a Long Time” (Berlin 2023) about the relationship between a widower and his teenage son, but are more likely to send “Wonderland”, a drama about two fathers and their daughters, starring comedian Mark Lee.

Sri Lanka- “Whispering Mountains” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009 but I’m really hoping they return with “Whispering Mountains” (Busan, Rotterdam), a weird and well-reviewed mystery-horror-drama about the government’s efforts to handle the aftermath of a mass suicide of local youth. Less likely: hilarious black comedy “Tentigo”, which (like Peru’s submission last year) focuses on an elderly person’s erection, two-person ideological debate “My Red Comrade”, and “Kandak Sema”, about impoverished women who arrange marriages with elderly people abroad. Highly deserving but unlikely: “Sand” (Rotterdam 2023) is an acclaimed film about the homecoming of a Tamil rebel, and it (shockingky) was approved for a local release in November…but war wounds may be too recent for them to consider a Tamil film.

Taiwan- OFFICIAL: “Old Fox” It’s official! On August 15^th, Taiwan became the first country in the Asia-Pacific region to select their pick for the Oscars, and they went with “Old Fox” from a list of 14 (unnamed) candidates, which looks like it included Wei Te-sheng’s cancer drama “Big”. Wei was shortlisted for “Seediq Bale”. “Old Fox”, a drama about an 11-year old who develops a friendship with his landlord, won Best Taiwanese Film at the 2024 Taipei Film Festival but failed to get a Best Picture nomination at the 2023 Golden Horse Film Festival (where Chinese-language films from all countries compete).

Tajikistan- “Fish on the Hook” Tajikistan submitted a film for the first time in 18 years last year but it wasn’t accepted because Tajikistan didn’t have a recognized committee. Tajikistan and Iran speak dialects of the Persian language and both Tajikistan’s 2005 and 2023 submissions were Iranian co-productions with Iranian directors. In June, Tajikistan and Iran (and Russia) announced the premiere of a new co-production with a Tajik director called “Fish on the Hook” (Рыбка на крючке). There are no details about it online but I don’t see Tajikistan with any other options.

Thailand- “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” Thailand appears to have a fairly easy decision this year since “How to Make Million Before Grandma Dies”, a drama about an opportunistic young man who moves in with his wealthy grandmother to try and manoeuver himself into the will, has been a commercial and critical hit. The Thai Academy usually goes with a fairly commercial pick so this makes even more sense now that the film got a Netlflix screening deal. This is likely to be Thailand’s pick (some are even predicting an Oscar nomination but that’s probably pushing things) but their other options include “Uranus 2324” (a sci-fi movie, also on Netflix), gay marriage drama “The Paradise of Thorns”, historical anime “2475 Dawn of Revolution”, or arthouse drama “Morrison”. The most useful precusor, the Thai Supphanahong Film Awards appear to have been discontinued due to an intra-industry dispute.

Uzbekistan- “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” Uzbekistan competed for the Oscars twice in 2020-2021 but their committee website seems to be defunct. If they somehow manage to get their act together, it will probably be arthouse festival drama “Monday” or epic period movie “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” about one of Uzbekistan’s great historical figures. I can’t find a release date for “Monday”, which is likely the better film, and Uzbekistan is likely to follow Kazakhstan in its propensity for expensive costume dramas.  

Vietnam- “The Last Wife”  Vietnam’s recent submissions have tended to skew very “commercial”, though last year was an exception. On paper, the strongest candidate is Victor Vu’s Netflix melodrama “The Last Wife”. Vu has been picked twice in the past eight years and “Wife” is a glossy period drama that got decent reviews and also scored big at the local box office. It’s about a girl forced to marry an important local official as his third wife despite still being in love with her childhood sweetheart. “Cu Chi Never Cries” (Berlinale), an intergenerational arthouse piece, and “Mai”, another Netflix melodrama by a previous submitted director, could also be selected. Rounding out the Top 5: “Impermanent Residents”, a thriller about two very unlucky babysitters, and “Sang Den”, about a music troupe. Not eligible: “Viet and Nam”, which appears to have been banned in Vietnam.