Tuesday, December 17, 2024

FINAL SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS

With the shortlist coming out in a few hours, here are my final predictions. 

I'm really crossing my fingers for the Netherlands and Romania but I'm pretty sure they can't both make it. Last year, I predicted Bulgaria and Ireland on the quality of the filmmaking forgetting the Oscar voters are often lazy and ignore the best films if nobody is talking about them and forcing them to watch their screeners. 

I predict Sweden and Senegal will be the big surprises. Sweden will make it and Senegal will (deservedly) be snubbed:

PREDICTED SHORTLIST- 

1. BRAZIL- I'm Still Here

2. GERMANY- The Seed of the Sacred Fig

3. FRANCE- Emilia Perez

4. DENMARK- The Girl with the Needle

5. IRELAND- Kneecap

6. ICELAND- Touch

7. ITALY- Vermiglio

8. NORWAY- Armand

9. LATVIA- Flow

10. SWEDEN- The Last Journey

11. CANADA- Universal Language

12. CZECH REPUBLIC- Waves

13. ROMANIA- Three Km. to the End of the World

14. CHILE- In Her Place

15. PALESTINE- From Ground Zero


STRONG ALTERNATES

16. NETHERLANDS- Memory Lane

17. UNITED KINGDOM- Santosh

18. THAILAND- How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

19. KENYA- Nawi

20. MEXICO- Sujo (it doesn't deserve it...but Mexico ALWAYS makes the shortlist)

21. SPAIN- Saturn Return

22. INDIA- Laapataa Ladies

23. MONGOLIA- If Only I Could Hibernate


LONG SHOTS

24. CAMBODIA- Rendezvous with Pol Pot

25. LEBANON- Arze

26. PORTUGAL- Grand Tour

27. COSTA RICA- Memories of a Burning Body

28. ISRAEL- Come Closer

29. GUATEMALA- Rita

30. HUNGARY- Semmelweis

31. MALAYSIA- Abang Adik

32. NEPAL- Shambhala


I’ll publish my precautions for the Middle East and Africa later today but in summary: 


Frontrunners: Palestine, Kenya 

Dark Horses: Lebanon, Israel, Senegal 

Middle of the Pack: Tunisia, Jordan (withdrawn), Turkey, Morocco 

Better Luck Next year: Iraq, Iran, South Africa, Algeria

No chance in hell: Egypt, Nigeria, Cameroon 



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