With the shortlist coming out in a few hours, here are my final predictions.
I'm really crossing my fingers for the Netherlands and Romania but I'm pretty sure they can't both make it. Last year, I predicted Bulgaria and Ireland on the quality of the filmmaking forgetting the Oscar voters are often lazy and ignore the best films if nobody is talking about them and forcing them to watch their screeners.
I predict Sweden and Senegal will be the big surprises. Sweden will make it and Senegal will (deservedly) be snubbed:
PREDICTED SHORTLIST-
1. BRAZIL- I'm Still Here
2. GERMANY- The Seed of the Sacred Fig
3. FRANCE- Emilia Perez
4. DENMARK- The Girl with the Needle
5. IRELAND- Kneecap
6. ICELAND- Touch
7. ITALY- Vermiglio
8. NORWAY- Armand
9. LATVIA- Flow
10. SWEDEN- The Last Journey
11. CANADA- Universal Language
12. CZECH REPUBLIC- Waves
13. ROMANIA- Three Km. to the End of the World
14. CHILE- In Her Place
15. PALESTINE- From Ground Zero
STRONG ALTERNATES
16. NETHERLANDS- Memory Lane
17. UNITED KINGDOM- Santosh
18. THAILAND- How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
19. KENYA- Nawi
20. MEXICO- Sujo (it doesn't deserve it...but Mexico ALWAYS makes the shortlist)
21. SPAIN- Saturn Return
22. INDIA- Laapataa Ladies
23. MONGOLIA- If Only I Could Hibernate
LONG SHOTS
24. CAMBODIA- Rendezvous with Pol Pot
25. LEBANON- Arze
26. PORTUGAL- Grand Tour
27. COSTA RICA- Memories of a Burning Body
28. ISRAEL- Come Closer
29. GUATEMALA- Rita
30. HUNGARY- Semmelweis
31. MALAYSIA- Abang Adik
32. NEPAL- Shambhala
I’ll publish my precautions for the Middle East and Africa later today but in summary:
Frontrunners: Palestine, Kenya
Dark Horses: Lebanon, Israel, Senegal
Middle of the Pack: Tunisia, Jordan (withdrawn), Turkey, Morocco
Better Luck Next year: Iraq, Iran, South Africa, Algeria
No chance in hell: Egypt, Nigeria, Cameroon
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