FINAL PREDICTIONS

So, I got 12 out of 15.....That sounds like an amazing record....but it's not. Unfortunately, this category which used to full of surprises, now just picks the movies that the most people have seen. 

The three I got wrong- "Blaga's Lessons" (Bulgaria), "In the Shadow of Beirut" (Ireland) and "Inshallah A Boy"- were wonderful films that I saw and loved and that deserved to make the shortlist. Unfortunately, this category no longer picks the best movies.....The three films that replaced them were Cannes documentaries "Four Daughters" and "Mother of All Lies" plus the dark horse from Armenia-  "Amerikatsi" (which has an American director and got a lot of LA screenings plus an Amazon release). "Amerikatsi" is quite good and was a pleasant surprise. "Four Daughters" won Best Documentary at Cannes and was one of my alternates.....so not much of a surprise. Not sure how "Mother of All Lies" ended up on the list. 

I've seen the five films streaming on Amazon (Armenia, Finland, Iceland, Tunisia and Ukraine) plus Mexico (available on Curzon Home Cinema) and Morocco.....I'll see "Society of the Snow" this week....Unfortunately, I haven't seen any of the five films that I see in a virtual tie for 5th place, making it much harder to figure out which one will get the coveted nomination.

Here's how the precursors have shaped up so far:

Golden Globes: Finland, Italy, Spain, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) & Past Lives

BAFTA: Spain, Ukraine, UK + Anatomy of a Fall & Past Lives

Critics Choice: France, Japan, Spain, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) & Godzilla Minus One

European Film Awards (Euro films only): Finland, Italy, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) & Green Border

Satellite Awards: Bulgaria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK + Anatomy of a Fall

NBR: Finland, Germany, Mexico, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) + La chimera

As we can see, the most popular film isn't eligible- "Anatomy of a Fall" scored four wins and is the frontrunner for the two that haven't happened yet...but France decided not to send it. "Zone of Interest" is in second place, scoring a nomination at all six. Finland and Spain also did very well....The shortlisted films from France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico and Ukraine got at least one mention, while Tunisia got a number of Best Documentary nominations at these shows....Armenia, Bhutan, Denmark, Iceland and Morocco have largely been unrecognized. 

And here are my predictions for the Oscar nominations that will be announced on Tuesday: 

VIRTUAL LOCKS

1.  UNITED KINGDOM- "The Zone of Interest"

2.  SPAIN- "Society of the Snow" 

These two films have been nominated for Best Foreign/International Film by almost every awards body, and they've both been mentioned in the Best Picture race....("Zone" as a frontrunner and "Snow" as an unlikely dark horse). They both have fantastic reviews, well-connected directors who have had their English-language films nominated for Oscars in the past, plus heavy and "important" subjects (WWII concentration camps and a fight-for-survival plane crash) and are certain to be nominated. 

VERY LIKELY

3.   JAPAN- "Perfect Days"

4.  UKRAINE- "20 Days in Mariupol"

These two seem to have what it takes. I originally predicted Ukraine would make the shortlist in Best International Feature, but only get nominated in Best Documentary Feature. I've changed my mind. While "20 Days in Mariupol" is not my choice for the Best International Documentary of the year (that would be Ireland's "In the Shadow of Beirut"), it's difficult to watch "Mariupol" and not deeply feel the enormous courage of the director, and the importance of his mission to highlight war crimes committed by Russian invading forces. On paper, Ukraine looks like it's in....It has the highest rating on Letterboxd (4.2), Rotten Tomatoes (100%) and IMDB (8.6!!!) of all 15 films. 

Japan has selected a quiet and introspective film about the life of a Japanese janitor. While it may not sound exciting (and it probably isn't...I haven't seen it yet), the film has gotten great reviews, the Best Actor award at Cannes, and its themes of aging and life satisfaction are likely to resonate with the older voters who serve on this committee. A lot of people say it's vulnerable but I think the three-time Oscar-nominated Wim Wenders is safe. 

BLOODBATH FOR 5th PLACE

5.  GERMANY- "The Teachers' Lounge"

6.  BHUTAN- "The Monk and the Gun"

7.  FRANCE- "The Taste of Things"

8.  DENMARK- "The Promised Land"

9.  ITALY- "Io Capitano"

What a race! Four of these five countries are Oscar powerhouses that have racked up 5 (Denmark), 3 (Germany), and 2 (France and Italy) nominations in the past ten years. All of them (except France) have racked up a win too. Three of the directors are previous Oscar nominees in this category. So, these five are in a virtual tie for 5th place, and I keep changing my mind as to which one (or two, if one of the four frontrunners fails) will make it. For now, I'm going with GERMANY...but I'm not at all confident. Let's take a closer look:

BHUTAN- Telling the comedic story of Bhutan's first democratic elections, this is said to be a genuine crowdpleaser. However, it is constantly being compared to "Lunana" (which put Bhutanese cinema on the map) and not everyone thinks "Monk" is as good. I also don't think it's been as widely seen as the four European films, which could make it less competitive.

DENMARK- Oscar loves Denmark and they love Mads Mikkelsen. And "The Promised Land" got very strong reviews when it premiered in Venice, and a theatrical release in the U.S. So why is nobody talking about it? That's a bad sign but I do think period western "The Promised Land" will come a lot closer to a nomination that most people are expecting.....However, I do expect that it will miss. 

FRANCE- This is a confusing one. Most people I know say "Taste of Things" is well-made but terribly boring (it has an abysmal 28% on Rotten Tomatoes....but that sounds ridiculously low....is someone trying to sabotage their score?) . But critics' reviews are overwhelmingly positive, and I believe that American audiences (especially older ones) will like it better than French ones. So, I have it on the bubble. I don't expect it to be nominated but it's very, very possible. Of course, most everyone thinks "Anatomy of a Fall" should have represented France at the Oscars, where it would have had a strong chance of winning. I've heard that at least a few Oscar voters are "punishing" France by not voting for "Taste". 

GERMANY- A dedicated teacher investigates a student accused of stealing. While it doesn't sound exciting, this is supposed to be a superior "moral dilemma" drama akin to a thriller, in the mold of two-time Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi. It's certainly the film on the shortlist I'm most excited to see. While being a great movie often doesn't mean anything in this category, this is a great movie from perpetual Oscar nominee Germany....everyone seems to like it. The biggest negative? The film hasn't been released in the United States, which may give its French competitors an edge.  

ITALY- Oscar hasn't gone for Matteo Garrone before but "Gomorrah" was awful and "Dogman" good but forgettable. "Io Capitano" is a harrowing Wolof-language drama about human trafficking and is supposed to a work of brutal realism.  While I am ranking Italy last among these five, it's certainly possible. 

REAL DARK HORSES

10.   FINLAND- "Fallen Leaves"

11.  MEXICO- "Totem"

12.  ARMENIA- "Amerikatsi" 

13.  TUNISIA- "Four Daughters"

FINLAND has done very well in the precursors (see above) but the slight, 81-minutes comedy-drama "Fallen Leaves" seems highly unlikely to me, especially amidst much heavier fare. I'll see it tomorrow to judge for myself....I like Finnish cinema, but I'm not a Kaurismaki fan....so perhaps I'm prejudiced but I think the absence of "Fallen Leaves" will be one of the surprises on Oscar morning. 

I'm so happy to see ARMENIA make the shortlist for the first time! "Amerikatsi" is a charming film, directed by Armenian-American actor Michael Goorjian, about an Armenian-American who moves to the Soviet Union to help rebuild the land of his ancestors after WWII....but who is promptly thrown into jail for wearing a tie. The film is an old-fashioned, funny film that wants to be "Life is Beautiful", finding humor and humanity in a brutal Soviet prison.....but although it's entertaining, it never felt to me like it was a potential Oscar nominee.

I loved Lila Aviles' feature debut "The Chambermaid" which MEXICO submitted four years ago (and which was the only Mexican film in the last six years that didn't make the Oscar shortlist). I most certainly did not love Aviles' second film "Totem", about a large Mexican family getting ready for a bittersweet birthday party for a cancer-stricken relative. I'm definitely in the minority; I know most people really like "Totem". But I can't believe that such a slow, dull film (that reminded me of "Summer 1993" and "It's Only the End of the World") will qualify from such a strong group. 

Lastly we have Cannes Best Documentary winner "Four Daughters" from TUNISIA, an odd little documentary about a Tunisian single mother of four daughters, two of whom join ISIS. Director Kaouther Ben Hania (one of my favorite filmmakers and one who deserved an Oscar for "Beauty & the Dogs") hires actresses to play the two evil monster daughters alongside the rest of the real family. This was an interesting idea although I didn't feel it worked 100%. It's definitely a very educational film about how young people get radicalized in relatively liberal Tunisia, which supposedly has one of the highest terrorist recruitments rates in the world. However, the film is kind of divisive and I'm not certain Kaouther can get two surprise nominations in less than five years.   

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

14.   ICELAND- "Godland"

15.  MOROCCO- "Mother of All Lies"

It's a pleasure to be nominated, but it's also a pleasure to be shortlisted in a tight race of 88 films from around the world! The films from Iceland and Morocco do have great reviews, and a lot of people in their concern. However, it's absolutely certain that they are the two weakest contenders among the fifteen films on the shortlist. "Godland" is a beautifully shot, painfully intellectual and somewhat overlong drama about a Danish priest assigned to Iceland circa the 1890s. I couldn't finish it in one sitting and I frankly didn't understand the motivations of the characters at the end. This requires a lot of patience....Cinematography is gorgeous though. 

As for "Mother of All Lies", it's difficult to critique such a deeply personal story. Director Asmae El-Moudir interviews her family and neighbors about a deadly 1981 riot that was covered up by the government. It reminded me a lot of "The Missing Picture" (which was a surprise Oscar nominee) but less interesting. Worst of all, the film spends nearly half its running time meandering before it finally gets to its main subject. Some people genuinely like the film, but it has the lowest Letterboxd and IMDB scores of all 15 films and is the least likely film on the list, and (unlike Tunisia and Ukraine) failed to make the Documentary Feature shortlist.

A few brief statistics: 

Number of Women:      3     Lila Avilés (Mexico), Kaouther Ben Hania (Tunisia) and Asmae El Moudir (Morocco)

How many have been nominated for Oscars? Wow....six out of 15.....Nikolaj Arcel ("A Royal Affair"), Kaouther Ben Hania ("The Man Who Sold His Skin"), Pawo Choyning Dorji ("Lunana"), Tran Anh Hung ("The Scent of Green Papaya"), Aki Kaurismaki ("The Man Without A Past") plus Wim Wenders who was never nominated in this category (though Germany submitted his films three times) but has three Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature. None have won. 

In addition to these six, four more - Lila Aviles ("The Chambermaid"), JA Bayona ("The Orphanage"), Matteo Garrone ("Gomorrah" and "Dogman") and Hlynur Pálmason ("A White, White Day")- made the shortlist for the first time after representing their country at least once before. 

Most Likely To Be Nominated for the First Time: Ukraine

Letterboxd Scores- Highest: 4.2 (Japan and Ukraine)....Lowest: 3.5 (Morocco)

IMDB Scores- Highest: 8.6 (Ukraine)....Lowest: 6.6 (Morocco)

Oldest and Youngest Directors:     Wim Wenders, 78 and Asmae El Moudir, 33

Festival Premieres: 

Cannes: 7 (Finland, France, Iceland, Japan, Morocco, Tunisia, UK)

Venice: 3 (Denmark, Italy, Spain)

Berlin: 2 (Germany, Mexico)

Sundance: 1 (Ukraine)

Telluride: 1 (Bhutan)

None: 1 (Armenia)