Oscar International Film Predictions- Western Europe

 

Austria- OFFICIAL: “The Devil’s Bath”  Austria selected creepy costume drama “The Devil’s Bath”- by the directors of “Goodnight Mommy” – before I had a chance to research Austria. “The Devil’s Bath” won Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards and got an Amazon release….but its critical reviews talk more about the beautiful tech credits than the film, which is about a village woman with dark thoughts. I probably would have predicted father-son drama “Rickerl” (which won Best Director, Screenplay and Actor) instead.

Belgium- “Young Hearts” I’m hearing most people say that Belgium is likely to choose “Julie Keeps Quiet” (Cannes), a tense drama about a #MeToo situation at  girl’s sports team, made by a Flemish director but reportedly filmed in a mix of the country’s two official languages. The fact that the famed Dardenne Brothers co-produced the film will help a lot, but there are several Belgian films that seem to have better reviews like “Amal” (Tallinn Black Nights), about a beloved Belgian teacher who falls afoul of fundamentalist Muslim students, “Night Call”, an exciting new thriller, “Skunk”, about a boy from a dysfunctional family and “Young Hearts” (Berlin), an LGBT teen drama written by Lukas Dhont (“Girl”). These are likely to be the Top Five and it will ultimately probably come down to “Amal”, “Julie” and “Young Hearts”. “Amal” may not be PC enough. I’m predicting Belgium will hope lightning strikes twice for Dhont and send the adolescent love story “Young Hearts”….with “Julie” a very, very close second.

Denmark- “The Girl with the Needle” I was researching Denmark when they announced their three-film shortlist on August 22. I was going to predict “Sons” (Berlin), plus two films with unclear release dates- “The Quiet Ones” (Toronto) and “The Girl with the Needle” (Cannes), with “Kingmaker” (Mørkeland) as my alternate. In the end, “Sons” made the list as did “Girl with the Needle” which must be getting a qualifying release ahead of its January 2025 release in Denmark. “Quiet Ones” will premiere on October 31st, making it eligible next year. Of course, I should have realized that the Nordic countries have an unofficial rule that there needs to be gender equity….so the third shortlist slot went to female-helmed documentary “Echo of You”. This should be an easy win for the buzzy B&W period drama “The Girl with the Needle” (also being discussed as a possibility for Poland, though it really should represent Denmark) about an impoverished woman who comes across a dodgy adoption agency in post-WWI Denmark. Gustav Möller, who made the wonderful shortlisted thriller “The Guilty”, hasn’t gotten as strong reviews for his sophomore effort “Sons”, about a corrections officer who encounters a man from her secret past. “Echo” is a well-reviewed documentary about the elderly. But the qualifying release makes this obvious: “Needle” is representing Denmark this year.

Finland- “Family Time” Finland will likely have a difficult time choosing between two contenders, in their two official languages- the Finnish-language “Family Time” and the Swedish-language “Stormskerry Maja”. “Family Time”, a dark comedy set amidst a family reunion at Christmas, was the surprise winner at the Finnish Jussi Awards, defeating Aki Kaurismaki’s “Fallen Leaves” for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay. “Stormskerry Maja”, a nearly 3-hour 19th century costume drama set in the Swedish-speaking Aland Islands, has been a box-office hit in 2024 and tells of a feminist awakening. We usually have a glut of long historical dramas so I’m really hoping that “Family Time” (Berlin) gets this, even though I know “Stormskerry” is the favorite. Unlikely but possible: Cold War dramedy “The Missile”, polyamory drama “Four Little Adults” (whose director was picked in 2019) and environmentalist documentary “Once Upon A Time in the Forest”.

France- “Emilia Perez” Last year, France was much criticized at home and abroad because they “lost the Oscar” by submitting pretentious foodie drama “Taste of Things” over murder mystery “Anatomy of a Fall”, which ended up with five Oscar nominations (and one Oscar). It’s true that “Taste” was a terrible choice (it wasn’t very good and couldn’t even manage a Best Pic nomination at the French Cesars the following year)….but I won’t be so hard on the French. Hindsight is 20-20 and “Taste of Things” had just won Best Director at Cannes….so some critics clearly loved it. France has multiple films every year that could legitimately compete for an Oscar nomination so this is always a very difficult decision for France. This year, France has revamped its selection process (again) and they claim to really be in it to win….which means they will try to figure out what AMPAS voters will vote for, rather than the film they like best. While a shortlist of 3-5 films will be announced in September that could potentially include “The Beast” and “Souleymayne’s Story” or, less likely, “Rosalie”, “Yannick” and/or “Le roman de Jim”, the French press has already made it clear that the committee will unofficially be choosing between Jacques Audiard’s weird Mexican crime drama-transgender-comedy-musical “Emilia Perez” and 3-hour “ultra-French” box-office hit “The Count of Monte Cristo”. This will create an existential dilemma for France. “Emilia Perez” is a critical darling that will have the backing of Netflix, which will release the film in November, guaranteeing at least a shortlist spot. It has a French director (Audiard) who has one Oscar nomination for “The Prophet”, and who probably would have more if “The Beat That My Heart Skipped” (defeated by Oscar nominee “Joyeux Noel”) or “Rust and Bone” (defeated by the shortlisted “Intouchables”) had been submitted by France. And a mostly French crew. But “Emilia”, about a Mexican crime lord who becomes a woman, is in Spanish, set in Mexico and stars an international cast of mostly American, Spanish and Latin American actors, including Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez and Edgar Ramirez. “The Count of Monte Cristo” practically screams “FRENCH”! Based on the beloved Dumas novel, it has been deliriously popular with French critics and audiences, is expected to appeal to older Oscar voters (who are gradually becoming less influential) and is visually the more impressive film. Perhaps more importantly, some French people would rather have an authentically “French” film represent them than a film in Spanish. So, what will France do? There are good reasons to choose both films and this will be close. But France hasn’t won since 1993 (“Indochine”). Since that time, almost all of their Western European rivals – Austria, Denmark, Italy, Netherlands (twice), Germany and Spain (three times) plus the UK (last year)- have gotten an Oscar while they go without. For this reason, I think the fact that Audiard made his Mexican film in France with a French team will be enough to defeat “The Count of Monte Cristo”…but I’m not confident.  

Germany- "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Written on 8/20) German Films announced that 13 films were submitted to represent Germany in 2025, ranging from big festival films to obscure unknowns that don’t seem to have screened commercially. Perhaps most interestingly, three films are by immigrant directors from the Islamic world. Here’s how I see the list:

Not A Chance: Drama “Silence” (Stille) and documentary “Femocracy 2” (Die Unbeugsamen 2 - Guten Morgen, ihr Schonen) have almost no digital footprint (“Silence” appears to have been sitting on a shelf for years) and aren’t high-profile enough no matter how good (or bad) they might be. As for comedy “Two to One”, reviews aren’t Oscar-worthy and it was probably only submitted because it stars Sandra Huller, and Goethe biopic “The Glory of Life” will be of little interest to U.S. audiences and managed only a single minor nomination (Costume Design) at this year’s German Film Awards.

Highly Unlikely: Family dramedy “Sad Jokes” (Toronto 2024) has good reviews but looks far too small to represent Germany.  Nazi drama “Stella: A Life”, about a Jewish singer who collaborates with the Nazis to protect herself, has a baity plot but also didn’t get nominated in any of the major categories at the German Film Awards (it got four tech nods) and is reportedly a “difficult watch”….so it probably isn’t liked enough. “Hollywoodland” (Venice 2023), which was filmed by an Egyptian director in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal, looks fascinating but documentaries always have an uphill battle to represent competitive countries like Germany.

Dark Horses: “From Hilde, With Love” (Berlinale ’24 Main Competition), “Goebbels & the Fuhrer” and “In the Blind Spot” (Berlin Encounters 2023) will probably all have their advocates. But while “Goebbels” tries to channel Oscar nominee “Downfall”, this film about the relationship between Hitler & Goebbels is probably too divisive and controversial. “In the Blind Spot” won Best Director and Best Screenplay and the “Bronze” Film Award (basically 3^rd Place Best Picture of the Year) for its story of a German film crew visiting a Kurdish village in Turkey. With many people comparing it to Middle Eastern tale “Sacred Fig”, which is sucking up all the publicity and energy, I think it has little chance of being picked, although director Ayşe Polat is one of only three women in the race, and the only one seriously in the running. “Hilde”, about the anti-Nazi resistance, has gotten mostly good reviews internationally…but weaker ones in Germany compared to the others….

Frontrunners: That means the three clear frontrunners are new docudrama “Die Ermittlung”, German Film Awards Best Picture winner “Dying” and Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”. “Sacred Fig”. “Sacred Fig” was the surprise entry on the list since the acclaimed film- an Iranian production shot in secret that infuriated the regime- had no clear connection to Germany. But director Mohammad Rasoulof has reportedly been living in Germany since fleeing Iran early this year…which technically may make him eligible per AMPAS rules. Despite not actually being “German”, the selection of “Sacred Fig” would be incredibly symbolic and the film, about a paranoid official who believes his wife or daughters have stolen his gun amid domestic political unrest, has the best reviews of the three. But 4-hour docudrama “Die Ermittlung” is about the Auschwitz trials (and Germany has its best luck with WWII movies) and 3-hour family drama “Dying” won the most important precursor, because three of the past four German Film Prize winners were sent to the Oscars (“Dear Thomas” was not, but it was directly against “I’m Your Man”). Final Answer: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” gets this, followed by “Dying”, “Die Ermittlung”, “From Hilde With Love” and “In the Blind Spot” rounding out the Top 5.

Greece- “Murderess” Greece’s Iris Awards were dominated by two female-helmed films that are eligible this year- “Animal” (Locarno 2023) and “Murderess”. “Animal” won the major awards (Picture, Director, Screenplay and two of the four acting awards) while “Murderess” won five tech prizes…but “Murderess” won the key award at the Thessaloniki Film Festival, which in previous years would have made it the automatic Greek nominee. I think dour historical drama “Murderess” is a better fit for the Oscars than the youthful “Animal”, which is about the highs and lows of a group of disaffected youth working at a popular resort. “Murderess” is about the difficulties of Greek wives and daughters living in a traditional region circa 1900. I would also hope they consider “My Summer with Carmen”, a nudist gay comedy that has charmed audiences around the world, including the Audience Award at Thessaloniki and nominations in almost every category at the Greek Film Awards (though it won nothing). I’m rooting for it. Dark horses: documentaries “Stray Bodies” (reproductive freedom) and “Tack” (the #MeToo movement), as well as family drama “Kyuka” and weird Greek New Wave “Arcadia” (Berlin)….but I think one of the three frontrunners should get this. In other news, there’s apparently some drama going on…it was reported that the Greek Ministry of Culture suddenly replaced its selection committee, while the Greek Film Academy asked the Ministry to turn the selection process over to them.  UPDATE: Greece is a mess. The Greek Ministry of Culture appointed a committee and sent out screeners before claiming (falsely) that this was done "by accident" and appointed a completely new committee. As a result, almost all eligible directors have withdrawn their film EXCEPT "Murderess". The Greek Film Academy has asked Greece not to send any film this year. So, watch this space. 

Iceland- “When the Light Breaks” Since 2002, Baltasar Kormákur has been picked to represent Iceland four times (the best was “The Sea” though it was “The Deep” that got a shortlist mention) and Oscar Short Film nominee Runar Runarsson was picked twice. These two are the obvious Icelandic front runners for dramas“Touch” (Kormakur) and “When the Light Breaks” (Runarsson). Runarsson’s film, about a teenaged girl dealing with the twin emotions of love and grief, opened Cannes Un Certain Regard. “Touch”, about a man searching for his long-lost love, has a higher review score on IMDB and letterboxd, and already got a limited U.S. release, which has really helped films get shortlisted recently. It also co-stars Masahiro Motoki, star of the Oscar winning “Departures”. It has a lot of English (and Japanese) but I’m not sure how much. Because of that, I’ll predict “Light”…but I’m not confident.

IRELAND- OFFICIAL: They selected “Kneecap” So, on August 2^nd, Ireland became the first country to announce their pick for the Oscars, with cheeky comedy “Kneecap”, which got praised from audiences at both SXSW and Sundance, and won Best Irish Film at Galway. In the past, Ireland only produced Irish-language features once every couple of years…this year, there are no less than five Irish-language premieres. “Kneecap” is probably the only one getting a release in Irish cinemas this Oscar year which means we should have a pretty competitive race in 2025 between the other four- “Fidil Ghorm” and “Froggie” (from Galway), “ and creepy horror-dramas “Frewaka” (Locarno) and “The Ghost”.

ITALY- "" I'll add Italy after their announce their traditional "longlist" in mid-September. 

LUXEMBOURG- “The Land in the Shadows” Most of Luxembourg’s film input are minority co-productions with other countries, with Luxembourg frequently being used as a source of funding and filming locations. Ever since AMPAS disqualified “Your Name is Justine” for being insufficiently “Luxembourgian”, Luxembourg has opted for actual national films made by Luxembourgian directors (the one exception was “Tel Aviv is On Fire”, which I was surprised AMPAS accepted). That means the obvious contender this year is “The Land in the Shadows”, a film made in the local dialect, about intrigue, xenophobia and politicking in a close-knit rural village. Runner-ups: Faustian fantasy-thriller “She is Conann” and old-fashioned animated film “A Boat in the Garden” are both majority LUX productions….but they have French directors.

MALTA- Nothing Malta sent films three times (2014, 2021 and 2022), and deserved to be nominated for “Luzzu”. Strangely enough, after “Luzzu” did so well at the Sundance Film Festival, international film production in Malta has boomed…but production of local Maltese-language cinema hasn’t produced any big films on the level of “Luzzu”. “Seven Doors”, a film about the seven deadly sins, premiered in October 2023 (which is too early) and the next Maltese-language production – “Castillo”- is scheduled to be released “soon”…but probably too late to compete this year. So, Malta will be absent again.

NETHERLANDS- “White Flash” As usual, the Netherlands became one of the first countries to announce a shortlist, picking eight mostly obscure films. The list consists of two documentaries (“Gerlach” and “Lost City”), one animated children’s film (“Fox and Hare Save the Forest”) plus a crime drama (“Hardcore Never Dies”), two dramedies about aging (“Memory Lane” and “Last Call”) and two dramas about grief (“Milk” and “White Flash”). Here’s how I see the race:

Frontrunners-    “Milk” and “White Flash”

Could Surprise- “Lost City” and “Memory Lane”

Highly Unlikely- “Gerlach” and “Hardcore Never Dies”

No Chance-        “Fox & Hare” and “Last Call”

So, this looks like a two-way race between those two grief dramas- supposed favorite “Milk” (which premiered at a Venice sidebar last year) and “White Flash”, starring Renee Soutendijk, having a real career renaissance after starring in last year’s underrated Dutch submission, “Sweet Dreams”. The Netherlands often picks films about death and grief and “White Flash” is an intriguing new film about euthanasia, about aging parents (including Renee) who are confronted with their chronically depressed son’s decision to proceed with an assisted suicide. The Netherlands often picks brand-new films and the film will premiere four days before the deadline. But most people in the know are predicting “Milk”, about a woman grieving the loss of her stillborn baby, who begins selling her breast milk. (“Milky Way”, aka “Milk” is a finalist for Israel so we could potentially have two breast milk submissions). I’m pretty sure one of these will be the one, but “Memory Lane”, about a man and his wife with Alzheimers on a road trip, has very good reviews and could be a surprise pick.  

Norway- “Sex” Norway is supposed to be the most competitive of the Scandinavian countries this year and there will be competition just to get on the 3-film shortlist they traditionally announce in September. I predict this will be Farhadi-esque elementary school drama “Armand” (Cannes), animated documentary “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” and the aptly-titled “Sex” (Berlin), a comedy about sexuality and masculinity. Others are predicting “Quisling”, a big biopic set to debut in September, “Arctic Convoy”, an expensive film about fighting the Nazis or Sundance documentary “New Kind of Wilderness” could make the shortlist…but the first three are my predictions. So, what will Norway pick? Last year, the Norwegian Academy made a bizarre decision, choosing a nature documentary that made Norway look incredibly beautiful but which, as a film, did not work on any level and was by far the weakest of Norway’s three shortlisted films. Ultimately, I expect this will come down to “Armand” and “Sex”, both of which would make excellent choices. I think the fact that Norway got its only nomination of the last ten years for “Worst Person in the World”, another dramatic comedy, will give the advantage to “Sex”…but “Armand”, about adults trying to understand the politicking of a kindergarten classroom, is also highly likely. “Ibelin”, an animated doc about the friends around the world affected by the death of a reclusive Norwegian gamer after his untimely death. Not eligible unless they get a qualifying release: “Loveable” (Venice) which will premiere in October, and “Love”, which will premiere in December. They are early frontrunners for Norway in 2025.

Portugal- “Grand Tour” Portugal announced a shortlist of five films, including two by well-established directors- Miguel Gomes’ “Grand Tour”, which won Best Director at Cannes, and Luis Filipe Rocha’s “Your Face Will Be the Last”, based on a Portuguese novel. Both directors have been picked before and both have their critics…but Portuguese films rarely win international awards so the Cannes Best Director win will obviously make “Grand Tour”, about a man following his runaway bride around Asia circa 1917, a finalist. The other three films- “The Buriti Flower”, “The Fortunate Ones” and “Manga d’Terra”- are less Portuguese. “Buriti” is largely Brazilian (though it does have a Portuguese co-director) while the other two have Swiss-born directors. Of these three “dark horses”, the best reviews have clearly gone to “The Fortunate Ones” and director Jeanne Waltz has lived and worked in Portugal for three decades. Over the years, I’ve seen hundreds of Oscar submissions from over 100 countries…and the worst one was Miguel Gomes’ “Our Beloved Month of August”….so I’m hoping for “The Fortunate Ones”, about an eccentric young woman who becomes part of Lisbon’s immigrant Cape Verdean community. It would be a much better pick for Oscar. But it will clearly come second to “Grand Tour”, with the Brazilian “Buriti” in a very distant third.

Spain- "House on Fire" This is the last country I’m drafting before an international vacation so will keep this fairly short. Spain traditionally releases a 3-film shortlist and competition is fierce for that list this year. I expect it will include Catalan family dramedy “House on Fire”, Iciar Bollain’s new sexual harassment drama “Soy Nevenka”, and “The Blue Star” (both San Sebatian), a drama about a struggling musician on a road trip to Argentina, whose director has confirmed their Oscar aspirations and which has gotten a U.S. release. “The Teacher Who Promised the Sea” is a strong alternate for the list. “Marco”, a new biopic about a fraudulent Holocaust survivor, is set to premiere in Venice and could very well compete if it gets a qualifying release. Dark horses: “La casa” (Malaga), “Jokes & Cigarettes” (a Goya Best Pic nominee), “Mamifera” (SxSW) “The Other Way Around” (Cannes) and the upcoming “The Red Virgin”, though I doubt any of them could seriously be picked as the Spanish submission.

Sweden- “Crossing” Sweden probably has the easiest decision in Western Europe because no Swedish film this year has the profile and reviews of Levan Akin’s “Crossing”, a beautiful road movie about a conservative Georgian aunt searching for her transgender niece who fled to Turkey after being kicked out by her family many years before. She sets out with a young, impulsive neighbor to Turkey where they both find undergo a journey of self-discovery. Akin’s “And Then We Danced” represented Sweden (and deserved a shortlist spot) in 2019. The only question is who will join ”Crossing” on Sweden’s 3-film shortlist. The two frontrunners would appear to be biopic “Dag Hammerskjold: Fight for Peace”, about the Swedish UN Secretary-General who died in a mysterious Cold War plane crash, and documentary-cum-road-movie “The Last Journey”, about an elderly man and his son travelling around France. This seems like a solid lineup for the shortlist, with rom-com “The Hypnosis” and crime drama “Miseria” as alternates. However, all five of these frontrunner films are directed by men and I’m not sure that’s allowed…..So, “Dag Hammerskjold” could be replaced by the Sami (Lapp) indigenous drama “Stolen” or toxic masculinity drama “Hunters in a White Field” just to ensure gender parity. But I loved “Crossing” and it's definitely being selected. Final answer.

Switzerland- “Reinas” Swiss Films took the unusual step of announcing a “shortlist” of two films, from a list of five submissions. I’ve always felt that one of the reasons for publicly announcing a shortlist is to raise publicity for all the national candidates. By choosing two, you’re creating an unusual situation with one winner and one loser. So this is an odd move for a country that has a lot of candidates to choose from. The two candidates are French comedy “Dog on Trial” and Peruvian drama “Reinas”, both directed by female, foreign-born directors with Swiss nationality. Of these two, “Reinas”, about a family fleeing the country during the political chaos of the 1990s, is clearly the more serious and better-reviewed film. “Dog”’s only chance is if Peru nominates it first. It’s surprising that the German-speaking region was ignored, including films like Swiss Film Prize Best Documentary winner “The Hearing” or “The Sparrow in the Chimney”, the only Swiss-majority film competing in the Main Competition at Locarno and set to premiere in Swiss cinemas on September 19^th.

UNITED KINGDOM- “On Becoming A Guinea Fowl” The UK will return to the Oscar race this year as “returning champion” for the first time ever.  Everyone is predicting this will be an easy win for “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl”, a film in Bemba and English that won Best Director at Cannes Un Certain Regard. Director Rungano Nyoni is from Wales but is of Zambian heritage and was selected to represent the UK for her charming debut “I Am Not A Witch” in 2018. Her new film is a tragicomedy about how Zambian women are forced to put up with sexual abuse in a society (and in families) that doesn’t properly recognize it as a crime. That’s probably what the UK will choose, assuming it has enough Bemba to qualify. But I think this will be a closer race than people think thanks to the presence of “Santosh”, a crime drama about a female police constable which competed against “Guinea Fowl” at Un Certain Regard and is a majority UK production. UK-born and raised director Sandhya Suri made the film in Hindi, so there are no language issues. So, it’s an exciting race. Dark horses: “To A Land Unknown” is such a multinational production that it likely wouldn’t qualify for any country….but Cineuropa lists UK as the majority country, and it also does for Icelandic co-production “Touch” (see ICELAND). There don’t seem to be any promising features in Welsh or Scots Gaelic this year.