So, the rules make things so predictable now that I correctly predicted 12/15 finalists this year....and the three films that I missed (Germany, Palestine and Switzerland) were among my four alternates. I'm still a bit surprised that Denmark and the UK failed to make the shortlist (It's only the fourth time Denmark has missed since 2010)....The last film I predicted - Colombia's "Un poeta" - was probably a bit of wishful thinking.
Moving on to next week's Oscar nominations....
This year is an exciting race because we literally have no idea which film will win. The well-made but dull “Sentimental Value” has been the front-runner all year and is expected to be nominated in a number of mainstream categories (although the SAG snub of its entire cast should make them worry). “It Was Just An Accident”, the Iranian film representing France, has a Cannes Palme d’Or, the critics vote, and the best backstory of the bunch. Dissident filmmaker Jafar Panahi, now travelling in the United States, wrote the script based on a previous stint in an Iranian prison and now faces another jail sentence and travel ban if and when he returns to increasingly unstable Iran….which he has sworn to do. But, as Brazil did last year, “The Secret Agent” has been rising fast and is peaking at the right time….Though everyone tells me the film is “difficult” and very, very long, people genuinely seem to love it…and its Golden Globe win last night makes it a serious threat.
The other two Oscar nominees probably don’t have a chance to win….but there’s an exciting race to see which two get the invitations to Hollywood. Almost everyone is predicting that this
will be an exciting toss-up between Korea (the popular, commercial
option), Spain (the darling of critics and the guilds) and Tunisia (the
sentimental and political choice). Kaouther Ben Hania is a two-time Oscar nominee and she and Park Chan-wook are AMPAS
members.
Is there room for a surprise in such a front-loaded race?
It’s unlikely but possible. Reportedly, last year’s 4-time Oscar winner
Sean Baker (“Anora”) and Netflix are lobbying
hard for the (rather basic) “Left-Handed Girl”…which Baker
co-wrote. With Korea, Spain and Tunisia splitting the vote, Taiwan could be a potential spoiler.
What about the rest?
It’s always an advantage when you are a
frontrunner and/or shortlisted in other categories, which will help Japan’s “Kokuho”
(Make-Up and and Costume Design) and Germany’s “Sound of Falling”
(Cinematography)…though they don’t seem “loved” enough outside their home countries. And while buzz has
been quieter, “Belen” (Amazon) and “Homebound” (Netflix + Martin Scorsese) have
powerful allies in their corner too.
The other four - Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Switzerland are
probably out of luck- even if some of them are much better films than the
frontrunners. Jordan’s “All That’s Left of You” – which has an American
director and is arguably the best-reviewed film on the list - might have a
chance if it wasn’t splitting the vote with two other films focused on
Palestine.
Incidentally, I’ve seen eight of the fifteen films on the list….I’d rank them in the following order…..None were bad.
1. India- "Homebound" 9/10
2. Switzerland, "Late Shift" 9/10
3. France, "It Was Just An Accident" 8/10
4. Korea, "No Other Choice", 8/10
5. Spain, "Sirat", 7.5/10
6. Taiwan, "Left-Handed Girl", 7.5/10
7. Argentina, "Belen", 7/10
8. Norway, "Sentimental Value", 5.5/10
And here’s my predicted ranking:
VIRTUALLY LOCKED
1. NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” (Letterboxd: 42, Rotten Tomatoes: 97, IMDB: 79)
2. BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” (LB: 39, RT: 99, IMDB: 79)
3. IRAN FRANCE- “It Was Just An
Accident” (LB: 40, RT: 97, IMDB: 75)
These three are safe. They’ve swept the precursors, have
almost no detractors and – most importantly – are all solidly in the race for
Best Picture.
BLOODBATH FOR A NOMINATION
4. SPAIN- “Sirat” (LB: 36, RT: 93, IMDB: 70)
5. TUNISIA- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (LB: 43, RT: 96, IMDB: 86)
6. KOREA- “No Other Choice” (LB: 42, RT: 98, IMDB: 76)
Statistically, it’s “Sirat” that should get knocked out. It’s a divisive film and reviews aren’t as good as the other two. But it made four Oscar shortlists for the guilds (Casting, Score, Cinematography and Sound) showing it has a broad base of support. For now, I think “No Other Choice” will be left out because it’s (a lot) less serious. But I love Park so I hope I’m wrong. This could really go any way.
VERY DARK HORSES
7. TAIWAN- “Left-Handed Girl”
8. JAPAN- “Kokuho”
9. INDIA- “Homebound”
As mentioned, these three Asian films have powerful packers….But Taiwan is probably the only one with a chance. The three-hour “Kokuho” is impressive but may have an hour too much kabuki…..
HOPING FOR A MIRACLE
10. JORDAN- “All That’s Left of You"
11. GERMANY- “Sound of Falling”
12. IRAQ- “The President’s Cake”
I’m not sure why Germany is here. Nobody seems to like it.
Everyone who sees Jordan says it’s one of the best films of the year. Why hasn’t it gotten nominated anywhere?
Iraq, the only country to be shortlisted for the first time, had a lot of buzz but it disappeared before Oscar season….Sony Pictures Classics didn’t fight for it
HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST
13. ARGENTINA- “Belen”
14. SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift”
15. PALESTINE- “Palestine 36”
“Belen” is a nice little film about an important topic (abortion) but I felt that someone had taken the script of “Argentina 1985” and literally rewritten the structure to be about abortion.
“Palestine 36”, the least visible of the three films about Palestine won’t be able to compete with Jordan and Palestine….but making the list is a major accomplishment for Jacir.
Last is Switzerland, the only country that made the shortlist with no major stars, backers, distributors or supporters in their corner. It was one of the best of the 92 submitted films this year. How wonderful it made the shortlist and how sad it really has no chance to advance further….
