This is one of the most exciting races in years for the International Feature category. It's common knowledge that if an International Film gets a Best Picture nomination, then it's automatically going to win Best International Film. This has happened six of the past seven years even when "Drive My Car" (terrible!) and "Zone of Interest" (boring!) managed to get it.
But this year, "Sentimental Value" and "Secret Agent" are both nominated for Best Picture and Wagner Moura and Stellan Skarsgård are both serious contenders in the Acting categories...so people will definitely see both films. I've also heard that AMPAS is making an extra effort to guilt voters into only voting if they've seen all five nominees (this has long been the rule...but now you can't vote of you haven't seen a film, unless you click a box and actively lie)....so could that help the two politically important (and far superior) films from Iran France and Tunisia? God, I hope so...but probably not.
"Sentimental Value" is considered to be the favorite. For me, this was among the most forgettable films of the year. I barely remembered a thing about it the day after I saw it. Was it well-acted? Yes. I'm fine with Reinsve and Skarsgård being nominated. But "Worst Person in the World" was a million times better, and I don't understand how "Sentimental" is any different from any other talky Nordic drama.
I didn't love "Secret Agent" either....It's messy, with subplots that never get resolved, and could use about 30 minutes of editing from its first half.... It also had more buzz around the time AMPAS voters were casting their ballots....so I think it will be the surprise winner. Brazil will be the first back-to-back winner since Denmark in the 1980s.
Dark horse: Could the Iran conflict lead to a surprise victory for "It Was Just An Accident"? That's the film I would vote for, and a victory speech from Jafar Panahi (also nominated in Best Original Screenplay) at this moment in history would be awesome.
BRAZIL- "Secret Agent" (50%)
NORWAY- "Sentimental Value" (44%)
FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident" (5%)
SPAIN- "Sirat" (1%)
TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (The only one not to be nominated anywhere else....Just happy to be nominated)
SHORT FILMS
I saw all 41/45 shortlisted films in the three Short Film categories (I missed four documentaries).
Live-Action
Should win: Butcher's Stain (Israel)
Will win:
1. Friend of Dorothy (UK.....my second-favorite)
2. The Singers (USA)
3. Two People Exchanging Saliva (France)
4. Butcher's Stain (Israel)
5. Jane Austen's Period Drama (USA)
Should have been nominated: "Pearl Comb" and "Pantyhose" instead of "Saliva"
Documentary
Should win: Armed Only With a Camera (USA)
Will win:
1. All the Empty Rooms (USA....I have no doubts about this and it is very good)
2. Armed Only With a Camera (USA)
3. The Devil is Busy (USA)
4. Children No More (Israel, Very, very good)
5. Perfectly a Strangeness (Canada....just following donkeys around with a camera)
Should Have Been Nominated: "Rovina's Choice" or "Bad Hostage" instead of "Strangeness"
Animated
Should win: Hmmm.....I'd vote for "Forevergreen" but "Girl Who Cried Pearls" has the most impressive animation.
Will win:
This is a tough call....Any of the Top Four could win
1. Butterfly/Papillon (France)
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Canada)
3. Forevergreen (USA)
4. The Retirement Plan (USA....What a great script.....but the animation is very simple)
5. Three Sisters (???)
Should Have Been Nominated: "Playing God" instead of "The Retirement Plan"
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