Here are the remaining 21 "Western" countries, consisting of Western Europe, plus Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The shortlist will be announced tomorrow so I'll keep this short!
NO CHANCE IN HELL
21. GREECE- "Polyxeni"
20. NEW ZEALAND- "Yellow is Forbidden"
19. PORTUGAL- "Pilgrimage"
18. AUSTRIA- "The Waldheim Waltz"
17. SWITZERLAND- "Eldorado"
Documentaries face an uphill battle here especially in such a competitive year as this. I don't think that any of the three obscure documentaries in this group have a chance. I've seen "Waldheim Waltz" from AUSTRIA and I wasn't very impressed. Filmed by an Austrian Jewish activist, it follows the 1986 Austrian presidential election in which Kurt Waldheim, the former UN Secretary General, faced allegations that he had been involved with Nazi atrocities. It's certainly informative but it also feels outdated and shows some unusual bias (when they show Kurt Waldheim meeting world leaders as Secretary General, the director chooses to show him shaking hands with dictators like Saddam Hussein and Mobutu Sese Seko). An odd choice for Austria. SWITZERLAND has "Eldorado", a documentary about the European migrant crisis in which Oscar-nominated director Markus Imhoof contrasts his family's experience hosting an Italian WWII orphan with the refugees currently coming to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. Reviews have been all over the map, mostly positive with some negative reviews. NEW ZEALAND has selected Mandarin Chinese-language fashion documentary "Yellow is Forbidden", which follows the work of Chinese designer Guo Pei. I've heard it's well-made but likely to be of interest only to those interested in the world of fashion.
Greece and Portugal always seem to be in the bottom tier. PORTUGAL, which holds the distinction of the most Oscar submissions without a nomination, has selected "Pilgrimage" a 16th century historical drama about Portuguese seafarers on a voyage around Asia. Production values appear strong but the film has no international awards, has gotten mostly middling reviews and depends on some rather old-fashioned Portuguese and music that isn't guaranteed to appeal domestically or overseas. Last and least is "Polyxeni" from GREECE which is basically a long drawn-out and occasionally confusing soap opera about a Greek woman from a wealthy family in Ottoman Turkey whose extended family tries to drive her mad and steal her money when her respectable parents die.
NOT STRONG ENOUGH
16. LUXEMBOURG- "Gutland"
15. CANADA- "Chien de garde" (Family First)
14. FINLAND- "Euthanizer"
13. SPAIN- "Campeones" (Champions)
I've seen three of these four, but not yet the film from CANADA. "Family First" is a family drama about a young man who wants to distance himself from the criminal activities of his family. Reviews have been mixed so this was an unusual choice for Canada. It seems perhaps they wanted to select a film by a young, female director?
I personally loved "Euthanizer", a dark, dark thriller from FINLAND....but most people hate it and it has no choice of advancing. It's a revenge movie as well as a (rather sick) love story about a 50-something man who makes his living euthanizing animals. He believes (quite rightly) that the animals are suffering largely because of the actions of their owners. Again, it's a wild ride and American audiences won't be able to handle it. SPAIN made the odd choice of selecting comedy "Campeones" (Champions). It's a comedy about a basketball coach who is sentenced to community service working with metally disabled adults. It's certainly entertaining, but it's also formulaic and predictable and reminded of an American 80s movie. I enjoyed it, but it's a non-starter for an Oscar. Last we have quirky thriller "Gutland" from LUXEMBOURG, about a German thief who hides out in a very strange town in Luxembourg. I usually like films like this but I found it a bit confusing and occasionally slow going. On reflection, the film maybe makes sense.
UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
12. ICELAND- "Woman at War"
11. NETHERLANDS- "The Resistance Banker"
10. ITALY- "Dogman"
9. TURKEY- "Wild Pear Tree"
To be completed later.....
DARK HORSES
8. UNITED KINGDOM- "I Am Not A Witch"
7. FRANCE- "La douleur" (Memoir of War)
6. BELGIUM- "Girl"
5. AUSTRALIA- "Jirga"
A lot of people are predicting Golden Globe nominee "Girl" and BAFTA winner "I Am Not A Witch". They're both very possible but I'd be a little surprised to see them on the shortlist. I've seen the two films, both of which focus on issues of identity for unusual young girls that don't necessarily conform to societal norms. BELGIUM's "Girl" is about a transgender 16 year old who is both obsessed with her vocation as a ballerina, and with speeding up the hormone treatments that will help her complete her biological transition. I was really surprised by the Golden Globe nomination because, although well-made, this is really a small indie with an amazing lead performance. Lara, the lead character, may be suffering through stress but she has a supportive family, school and (for the most part) friends. There's very little conflict other than that between Lara and her own body. That and a ludicrous ending made a potentially great film merely good. "I Am Not A Witch" is representing the UNITED KINGDOM but also unofficially representing ZAMBIA, where the film was made. It's about a little orphan (?) girl who appears in a village out of nowhere and is accused of being a witch. She is sent to a community for women accused of witchcraft and adopted by a man who seeks to exploit her allegedly magical powers. It's refreshing and exotic and original. But it's all a little too whimsical and (like "Girl") also could have punched up the ending (which I liked). Both of these films are debut films by promising new directors. I just don't necessarily think they'll score here.
I haven't seen the World War II drama "La douleur" or Taliban drama "Jirga" but I think AUSTRALIA has the edge between the two. Filmed in Afghanistan in extremely difficult conditions, "Jirga" is a moral dilemma drama about an Australian soldier who returns to Afghanistan to make amends with a family whose civilian son he killed while serving there. It's a baity topic and the film has just been bought by an American distributor. While I don't think it will make the Top Nine, this is sure to do very well. Last, we have "La douleur" (Memoirs of War) which was the surprise pick from FRANCE over "Custody". Following a female resistance fighter during WWII and based on an acclaimed novel. It's total Oscar bait. It got a limited US release, looks great and features a love triangle that you know can have no happy ending. Unfortunately, it's also gotten rather poisonous reviews. There are those who like it, but not enough. So, France is likely out.
STRONG CONTENDERS
4. NORWAY- "What Will People Say?"
3. GERMANY- "Never Look Away"
2. SWEDEN- "Border"
In this category we have two brilliant and deserving Nordic films....that are not necessarily Oscar's cup of tea.....and we have one Oscar bait film that nobody seems to really like but may end up being a very lazy choice by the large committee. Let's look at the three:
Germany
The Film: "Never Look Away" A German artist in West Germany is haunted by memories of his life in East Germany.
Pros: It's well-made (strong acting and production values) and total Oscar bait with an Oscar-winning director who has already won this award (for "Lives of Others"). Oscar loves Germany and has shortlisted them 11 times in the past 16 years, even when they send a lackluster film ("Pina", "Labyrinth of Lies"). The film managed a Golden Globe nomination (over "Cold War" and "The Guilty")
Cons: Nobody seems to love it and it won't be considered for a save....It's over three hours long and probably too long.
Bottom Line: I had counted them out but that Globe nomination and German flag make them a serious threat.
Norway
The Film: "What Will People Say" The Norwegian-born daughter of Pakistani immigrants is banished by her parents to provincial Pakistan because they don't approve of her teenage behaviour.
Pros: It's a really great film! I can't think of a single film in the competition that has a more compelling lead character. The film was mostly filmed in India (standing in for Pakistan) in Urdu, so it's a lot more exotic than the usual film from Norway. The parents are engaging yet realistic villains, and the film ends strong.
Cons: Oscar often ignores stories of women and girls. The film has virtually no buzz.
Bottom Line: Highly unlikely.
Sweden
The Film: "Border" A Swedish customs agent with "beastly" facial features can smell fear. She meets a Finnish man with similar features and talents, leading to a strange and possibly supernatural romance.
Pros: Possibly the most creative and original film in the competition. The film take the audience in directions that you truly didn't expect. The make-up effects are rumored to be in the running for an Oscar.
Cons: This is a wonderful but very weird movie but it's difficult to say anymore without spoilers. I'm not sure either committee will go for the fantasy genre.
Bottom Line: On the bubble! I'm crossing my fingers for Sweden!
FRONT-RUNNER
1. DENMARK- "The Guilty" "The Guilty" is a rather brilliant thriller from DENMARK about a police investigator who is working on dispatcher/operator duty after shooting a suspect in self-defense. At the end of his shift, he receives a call from a woman being kidnapped and he must unravel the mystery and find the woman without leaving the operator room. It's claustrophobic and well-written and thrilling and and I think this will appeal strongly to the large committee. It's only handicap is that some Oscar voters prefer films with large-scale production values. But I think "The Guilty" should make it's way to the shortlist fairly easily.
Now the statistics:
Number of countries that have participated in the past: 23
Number of countries participating this year: 21
NO CHANCE IN HELL
20. NEW ZEALAND- "Yellow is Forbidden"
19. PORTUGAL- "Pilgrimage"
18. AUSTRIA- "The Waldheim Waltz"
17. SWITZERLAND- "Eldorado"
Documentaries face an uphill battle here especially in such a competitive year as this. I don't think that any of the three obscure documentaries in this group have a chance. I've seen "Waldheim Waltz" from AUSTRIA and I wasn't very impressed. Filmed by an Austrian Jewish activist, it follows the 1986 Austrian presidential election in which Kurt Waldheim, the former UN Secretary General, faced allegations that he had been involved with Nazi atrocities. It's certainly informative but it also feels outdated and shows some unusual bias (when they show Kurt Waldheim meeting world leaders as Secretary General, the director chooses to show him shaking hands with dictators like Saddam Hussein and Mobutu Sese Seko). An odd choice for Austria. SWITZERLAND has "Eldorado", a documentary about the European migrant crisis in which Oscar-nominated director Markus Imhoof contrasts his family's experience hosting an Italian WWII orphan with the refugees currently coming to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. Reviews have been all over the map, mostly positive with some negative reviews. NEW ZEALAND has selected Mandarin Chinese-language fashion documentary "Yellow is Forbidden", which follows the work of Chinese designer Guo Pei. I've heard it's well-made but likely to be of interest only to those interested in the world of fashion.
Greece and Portugal always seem to be in the bottom tier. PORTUGAL, which holds the distinction of the most Oscar submissions without a nomination, has selected "Pilgrimage" a 16th century historical drama about Portuguese seafarers on a voyage around Asia. Production values appear strong but the film has no international awards, has gotten mostly middling reviews and depends on some rather old-fashioned Portuguese and music that isn't guaranteed to appeal domestically or overseas. Last and least is "Polyxeni" from GREECE which is basically a long drawn-out and occasionally confusing soap opera about a Greek woman from a wealthy family in Ottoman Turkey whose extended family tries to drive her mad and steal her money when her respectable parents die.
NOT STRONG ENOUGH
15. CANADA- "Chien de garde" (Family First)
14. FINLAND- "Euthanizer"
13. SPAIN- "Campeones" (Champions)
I've seen three of these four, but not yet the film from CANADA. "Family First" is a family drama about a young man who wants to distance himself from the criminal activities of his family. Reviews have been mixed so this was an unusual choice for Canada. It seems perhaps they wanted to select a film by a young, female director?
I personally loved "Euthanizer", a dark, dark thriller from FINLAND....but most people hate it and it has no choice of advancing. It's a revenge movie as well as a (rather sick) love story about a 50-something man who makes his living euthanizing animals. He believes (quite rightly) that the animals are suffering largely because of the actions of their owners. Again, it's a wild ride and American audiences won't be able to handle it. SPAIN made the odd choice of selecting comedy "Campeones" (Champions). It's a comedy about a basketball coach who is sentenced to community service working with metally disabled adults. It's certainly entertaining, but it's also formulaic and predictable and reminded of an American 80s movie. I enjoyed it, but it's a non-starter for an Oscar. Last we have quirky thriller "Gutland" from LUXEMBOURG, about a German thief who hides out in a very strange town in Luxembourg. I usually like films like this but I found it a bit confusing and occasionally slow going. On reflection, the film maybe makes sense.
UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
11. NETHERLANDS- "The Resistance Banker"
10. ITALY- "Dogman"
9. TURKEY- "Wild Pear Tree"
To be completed later.....
8. UNITED KINGDOM- "I Am Not A Witch"
7. FRANCE- "La douleur" (Memoir of War)
6. BELGIUM- "Girl"
5. AUSTRALIA- "Jirga"
A lot of people are predicting Golden Globe nominee "Girl" and BAFTA winner "I Am Not A Witch". They're both very possible but I'd be a little surprised to see them on the shortlist. I've seen the two films, both of which focus on issues of identity for unusual young girls that don't necessarily conform to societal norms. BELGIUM's "Girl" is about a transgender 16 year old who is both obsessed with her vocation as a ballerina, and with speeding up the hormone treatments that will help her complete her biological transition. I was really surprised by the Golden Globe nomination because, although well-made, this is really a small indie with an amazing lead performance. Lara, the lead character, may be suffering through stress but she has a supportive family, school and (for the most part) friends. There's very little conflict other than that between Lara and her own body. That and a ludicrous ending made a potentially great film merely good. "I Am Not A Witch" is representing the UNITED KINGDOM but also unofficially representing ZAMBIA, where the film was made. It's about a little orphan (?) girl who appears in a village out of nowhere and is accused of being a witch. She is sent to a community for women accused of witchcraft and adopted by a man who seeks to exploit her allegedly magical powers. It's refreshing and exotic and original. But it's all a little too whimsical and (like "Girl") also could have punched up the ending (which I liked). Both of these films are debut films by promising new directors. I just don't necessarily think they'll score here.
I haven't seen the World War II drama "La douleur" or Taliban drama "Jirga" but I think AUSTRALIA has the edge between the two. Filmed in Afghanistan in extremely difficult conditions, "Jirga" is a moral dilemma drama about an Australian soldier who returns to Afghanistan to make amends with a family whose civilian son he killed while serving there. It's a baity topic and the film has just been bought by an American distributor. While I don't think it will make the Top Nine, this is sure to do very well. Last, we have "La douleur" (Memoirs of War) which was the surprise pick from FRANCE over "Custody". Following a female resistance fighter during WWII and based on an acclaimed novel. It's total Oscar bait. It got a limited US release, looks great and features a love triangle that you know can have no happy ending. Unfortunately, it's also gotten rather poisonous reviews. There are those who like it, but not enough. So, France is likely out.
STRONG CONTENDERS
4. NORWAY- "What Will People Say?"
3. GERMANY- "Never Look Away"
2. SWEDEN- "Border"
In this category we have two brilliant and deserving Nordic films....that are not necessarily Oscar's cup of tea.....and we have one Oscar bait film that nobody seems to really like but may end up being a very lazy choice by the large committee. Let's look at the three:
GermanyThe Film: "Never Look Away" A German artist in West Germany is haunted by memories of his life in East Germany.
Pros: It's well-made (strong acting and production values) and total Oscar bait with an Oscar-winning director who has already won this award (for "Lives of Others"). Oscar loves Germany and has shortlisted them 11 times in the past 16 years, even when they send a lackluster film ("Pina", "Labyrinth of Lies"). The film managed a Golden Globe nomination (over "Cold War" and "The Guilty")
Cons: Nobody seems to love it and it won't be considered for a save....It's over three hours long and probably too long.
Bottom Line: I had counted them out but that Globe nomination and German flag make them a serious threat.
NorwayThe Film: "What Will People Say" The Norwegian-born daughter of Pakistani immigrants is banished by her parents to provincial Pakistan because they don't approve of her teenage behaviour.
Pros: It's a really great film! I can't think of a single film in the competition that has a more compelling lead character. The film was mostly filmed in India (standing in for Pakistan) in Urdu, so it's a lot more exotic than the usual film from Norway. The parents are engaging yet realistic villains, and the film ends strong.
Cons: Oscar often ignores stories of women and girls. The film has virtually no buzz.
Bottom Line: Highly unlikely.
SwedenThe Film: "Border" A Swedish customs agent with "beastly" facial features can smell fear. She meets a Finnish man with similar features and talents, leading to a strange and possibly supernatural romance.
Pros: Possibly the most creative and original film in the competition. The film take the audience in directions that you truly didn't expect. The make-up effects are rumored to be in the running for an Oscar.
Cons: This is a wonderful but very weird movie but it's difficult to say anymore without spoilers. I'm not sure either committee will go for the fantasy genre.
Bottom Line: On the bubble! I'm crossing my fingers for Sweden!
1. DENMARK- "The Guilty" "The Guilty" is a rather brilliant thriller from DENMARK about a police investigator who is working on dispatcher/operator duty after shooting a suspect in self-defense. At the end of his shift, he receives a call from a woman being kidnapped and he must unravel the mystery and find the woman without leaving the operator room. It's claustrophobic and well-written and thrilling and and I think this will appeal strongly to the large committee. It's only handicap is that some Oscar voters prefer films with large-scale production values. But I think "The Guilty" should make it's way to the shortlist fairly easily.
Now the statistics:
Number of countries that have participated in the past: 23
Number of countries participating this year: 21
Number of debuts: Zero.
Who's out?: English-speaking Ireland and Malta.
Number I predicted correctly- Only 5- Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Luxembourg and the UK. Austria was a bit of a shock.
Already Seen: 12, plus I'll see Italy next week.....So far: Austria (C-), Belgium (B), Denmark (A), Finland (A), Greece (D), Iceland (B+), Luxembourg (B-), Netherlands (B), Norway (A), Spain (B), Sweden (A), and the UK (B+)
Number of Female Directors: 6- Ruth Beckermann (Austria), Pietra Brettkelly (New Zealand), Sophie Dupuis (Canada, Iram Haq (Norway), Dora Masklavanou (Greece) and Rungano Nyoni (United Kingdom).
Oldest and Youngest Directors: 27-year old Lukas Dhont (Belgium) is the youngest director worldwide. 77-year old Markus Imhoof (Switzerland) is the third-oldest, and the most "senior" of the Western directors.
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 2 mostly in French (Canada, France) and German (Germany, Switzerland), plus one each in Chinese (New Zealand), Danish, Dutch, Finnish, French, Icelandic, Italian, Pashto (Australia), Spanish, Swedish, Turkish and Urdu (Norway). Roughly 50-50: Austria (German/French), Belgium (Dutch/French), Greece (Greek/Turkish), Luxembourg (German/Letzeburgesch), and Portugal (Portuguese/Chinese????).
Number of Documentaries: 3- Austria, New Zealand and Switzerland
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It's a strong group....about ten.
Highest profile film: Hard to say....In terms of buzz, I'm surprised to say it's "Girl".
Oscar History: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (Germany) won an Oscar for "The Lives of Others". Markus Imhoof (Switzerland) was nominated way back in 1982 for "The Boat is Full" and also represented Switzerland in 1991 ("Der berg") and 2013 ("More than Honey"). Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey) is representing his country for the fifth time since 2003, and was short-listed once for "Three Monkeys".
Also in the race before: João Botelho (Portugal, "Three Palm Trees" + "Hard Times"), Benedikt Erlingsson (Iceland; "Of Horses and Men"), Matteo Garrone (Italy; "Gomorrah") and Iram Haq (Norway; "I Am Yours").
Most Notable Omissions: The Western countries always have plenty to choose from, forcing at least four early front-runners to bow out before the race even got started, including two new films from Oscar winners- Denys Arcand's "The Fall of the American Empire" (Canada) and Asghar Farhadi's "Everybody Knows" (Spain) plus critically acclaimed favorites "Custody" from France and "Happy As Lazarro" from Italy. They ended up casualties of the "one film per country" rule. Also missing: Mademoiselle Paradis" (Austria), "Insyriated" (Belgium), "The Unknown Soldier" (Finland), "Transit" (Germany), "U-July 22" (Norway) and "Becoming Astrid" (Sweden).
Familiar Faces: Plenty of people are "familiar" in their own countries, but American audiences are probably going to recognize Vicky Krieps ("Phantom Thread") who co-stars in "Gutland", and Adil Hussain ("Life of Pi") who plays the evil father in "What Will People Say".
Also in the race before: João Botelho (Portugal, "Three Palm Trees" + "Hard Times"), Benedikt Erlingsson (Iceland; "Of Horses and Men"), Matteo Garrone (Italy; "Gomorrah") and Iram Haq (Norway; "I Am Yours").
Familiar Faces: Plenty of people are "familiar" in their own countries, but American audiences are probably going to recognize Vicky Krieps ("Phantom Thread") who co-stars in "Gutland", and Adil Hussain ("Life of Pi") who plays the evil father in "What Will People Say".
Last year's race: I saw 17 of last year's 22 "Western" submissions. My favorite was Golden Globe winner "In the Fade" from Germany which was shortlisted but failed to be nominated for an Oscar. Denmark's "You Disappear" was a close second. I was surprised both of them got such bad press. The weakest were Ireland and New Zealand (which clearly don't have much to choose from) and the dreary "Summer 1993". from Catalonia/Spain.
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