FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, I was waiting to write this until I found three hours in my schedule to go watch "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" at my local arthouse cinema....But I failed. Nevertheless, I've seen 11 of the 15 finalists, including all but one of the films "on the bubble" (Canada's "Universal Language"). So I feel pretty good about the ranking below. 

First off, I predicted 12 of the 15 finalists correctly....probably my best ever. But this is a hollow victory because the new Oscar rules now benefit the most-watched choices rather than the best. I missed "Santosh" (from the country with the second-largest number of AMPAS members) and "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" (a big word-of-mouth hit) but had them as alternates. I also predicted a snub for "Dahomey" because it's such a poor film...forgetting that that isn't important at all. 

Three films- Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig are widely seen as locks. It would be a huge shock if any of them missed on nomination morning. But those last two spots could honestly go to eight other films. I'm hoping that the two best- Touch and Kneecap- get those spots....But it's almost certain one or both will miss. 

Here are my predictions:

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1. BRAZIL, “I’m Still Here”

2. FRANCE, “Emilia Perez”

3. GERMANY, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

So, these three are the consensus favorites to make the next round so I don’t have too much to say. They’ve all been nominated at every major precursor (“Emilia Perez” missed at the Satellite Awards) and they’re being predicted by virtually everyone. A poll on Awardsdaily shows 94% support for all three. 

People who have seen all three films almost universally praise “I’m Still Here” as the Best Foreign Language Film of the year.....Cannes Jury Prize winner “Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a critical fave with a great backstory.....and “Emilia Perez” is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with the power of Netflix, a Golden Globe...and - perhaps most importantly- is a threat in a dozen other categories and is the clear favorite to win. If Fernanda Torres fails to get a Best Actress nomination, “Perez” will automatically be crowned the winner. 

Sadly, I’ve only been able to see “Emilia Perez”. I had so much fun watching it….but I’m shocked that it’s being nominated for so many awards. Gascon and Gomez are fine….but Oscar-worthy performances? Rather ridiculous. 

IN A STRONG POSITION:

4. IRELAND, “Kneecap”

5. ITALY, “Vermiglio”

6. ICELAND, “Touch”

The drug-fueled rapper comedy from Ireland - "Kneecap" - doesn't look like your usual Oscar nominee....But it has a number of advantages. First of all, it's one of the best films on the list, and it's a genuine crowdpleaser....though that didn't help "Les Intouchables" or "The Good Boss" make it beyond the shortlist. But it also got an early cinematic release in the USA, and has been buzzing ever since. Perhaps most importantly, it's hit most of the important precursors and exceeded expectations at the BAFTAs. It's probably in....unless voters don't have a sense of humor (which is possible). 

That leaves Italy's slow-moving village drama "Vermiglio" and Iceland's beautiful time-jumping romance "Touch" fighting (with three other films) for that final slot. "Touch", which tells the beautiful love story of a dying Icelandic man travelling the world amidst worsening COVID restrictions in an effort to meet his long-lost love. Co-star Masahiro Motoki helped Japan to a surprise Oscar nomination and even bigger surprise win for "Departures" and "Touch" will come close. But nobody seems to love the film quite as much as I do, so Italy has the clear advantage thanks to its European Film Award and Golden Globe nods. "Vermiglio" is a good film with some interesting twists and turns though it wouldn't be one of my Top 5. 

DARK HORSES:

7. DENMARK, “The Girl with the Needle”

8. LATVIA, “Flow”

9. THAILAND, “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies”

These three dark horses are in a virtually tie for sixth place. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of them announced on Oscar morning...and that would be a first for both Latvia and Thailand....so I'd be thrilled to see that happen. 

DENMARK is on the shortlist for the fifth year in a row (is that a record?) and "The Girl with the Needle" has been nominated almost everywhere alongside the three leaders. But after watching this weird Black and White horror-drama, I felt pretty sure this would miss an Oscar nomination. It just didn't seem good enough or "Oscary" enough to make it....but statistically, it should get that final slot. 

 LATVIA's "Flow" or, as the director called it, "our little cat movie", has been steadily moving up the rankings since its U.S. release. Initially, most people said it was a strong dark horse for the International Feature shortlist...but that it could never get nominated because voters would feel an Animated Feature nod would be sufficient to reward it.  That is still probably true....but voters and critics have been discovering and falling in love with "Flow" in big numbers since its domestic release in the USA, and especially since its Golden Globe win over "Wild Robot" in January. It could benefit from the one-week delay in Oscar voting....but will probably just miss out. 

THAILAND's heart-tugging soap opera "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" is about a slacker young man who moves in with his cancer-stricken grandmother in an effort to worm his way into her will. It's a sweet movie and I recommend you watch it. But Oscar has never gone for one of these sentimental Asian soap operas before. It's all very predictable....but it has some passionate fans and it would mean so much for Thai cinema....Unlikely but possible.   

PRAYING FOR A MIRACLE:

10. PALESTINE, “From Ground Zero”

11. CANADA, “Universal Language”

12. CZECH REPUBLIC, “Waves”

PALESTINE's stirring omnibus of 22 short films- "From Ground Zero"- is the only film that made the shortlist without the support of a sizeable international studio. Put together by senior Gazan filmmaker Rashid Masharawi from his current home base in Europe, "From Ground Zero" was somehow filmed by 22 amateur and independent Palestinian directors in Gaza in 2023 amidst bombings, electricity shortages and general violence and chaos. The films tell the stories (some fictional, some documentary-style) of ordinary people, of men and women and children and of Gaza itself. As such, much of the film is experimental and subject to filming conditions most directors could never dream of. One of the 22 films was left unfinished. While the film is unable to advance to the Top 5, it's appearance on the shortlist is nothing short of a miracle. 

I don't have too much to say about "Waves" from CZECH REPUBLIC, but its a solid historical drama based on the true story of Czechoslovakian journalists (many of whom were Communists themselves) trying to report on the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring. I felt this was a story best appreciated by the Czechs themselves and not really by international audiences. But critics love the film and in the 1980s this probably would have been a surefire nominee. Many Oscar prognosticators named this as the biggest surprise on the shortlist....so I just think it lacks the buzz and profile to make it to the next round. 

As for CANADA, the trailer for weird Persian-language comedy "Universal Language", set in an alternate universe (and Persian-speaking) Manitoba, looks charming. But its distributor is sitting on the film's release until next month so I haven't seen it. While it initially had a lot of buzz, this has faded and the film has oft been compared to Roy Andersson...one of my least-favorite international directors and one that Oscar has snubbed repeatedly. 

NO CHANCE:

13. NORWAY, “Armand”

14. UNITED KINGDOM, “Santosh”

15. SENEGAL, “Dahomey”

"Santosh" is a very good film! It deserves its slightly surprising spot on the shortlist. But this mystery--drama about misogyny and corruption in rural India has the least buzz of the 15 films on the list...and that matters a lot now. But it is interesting how "Santosh" managed to get Hindi-language cinema on the shortlist representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just emphasizing once again how stupid the Film Federation of India is for selecting "Laapataa Ladies" over potential winner "All We Imagine As Light". 

I haven't managed to see "Armand" from NORWAY....but it seems extremely divisive. I hear quite a few people say they love it....and even more who say they hate it. Of the four films I haven't seen ("Armand" plus "Sacred Fig", "Universal Language" and "I'm Still Here") it's the one I'm most curious to see. 

Finally, we have "Dahomey" from SENEGAL....Now, a documentary is not a good film just because it is about an important subject, or features interesting people. For a spare 70 minutes, French-Senegalese director Mati Diop films (1)- moving men packing up priceless African artifacts, (2)- a group of exceptionally articulate Beninois students debating art, colonialism, language and life in general, and (3)- a blank screen with a grating auto-tuned voiceover. I would love to have dinner with these students....but Berlin Golden Bear notwithstanding, you can't convince me that "Dahomey" is a good film or a good documentary. I don't think it will be nominated for either. 

I also managed to see all 15 of the shortlisted Animated Short finalists this year.....I only thought two were really Oscar-worthy. 

My predictions:

1. Wander to Wonder             (my #2)

2. Yuck! 

3. ME

4. A Crab in the Pool

5. A Bear Named Wojtek

6. Beautiful Men

7. Maybe Elephants

8. In the Shadow of the Cypress

9. Au Revoir, Mon Monde        (my personal favorite, and my winner)

10. Origami

11. The 21

12. Bottle George

13. Magic Candies

14. Wild-Tempered Clavier

15. Percebes

2019 Oscar Contenders: The Western Countries (Western Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ)

Here are the remaining 21 "Western" countries, consisting of Western Europe, plus Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The shortlist will be announced tomorrow so I'll keep this short!

NO CHANCE IN HELL

21. GREECE- "Polyxeni"
20. NEW ZEALAND- "Yellow is Forbidden"
19. PORTUGAL- "Pilgrimage"
18. AUSTRIA- "The Waldheim Waltz"
17. SWITZERLAND- "Eldorado"

Documentaries face an uphill battle here especially in such a competitive year as this. I don't think that any of the three obscure documentaries in this group have a chance. I've seen "Waldheim Waltz" from AUSTRIA and I wasn't very impressed. Filmed by an Austrian Jewish activist, it follows the 1986 Austrian presidential election in which Kurt Waldheim, the former UN Secretary General, faced allegations that he had been involved with Nazi atrocities. It's certainly informative but it also feels outdated and shows some unusual bias (when they show Kurt Waldheim meeting world leaders as Secretary General, the director chooses to show him shaking hands with dictators like Saddam Hussein and Mobutu Sese Seko). An odd choice for Austria. SWITZERLAND has "Eldorado", a documentary about the European migrant crisis in which Oscar-nominated director Markus Imhoof contrasts his family's experience hosting an Italian WWII orphan with the refugees currently coming to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. Reviews have been all over the map, mostly positive with some negative reviews. NEW ZEALAND has selected Mandarin Chinese-language fashion documentary "Yellow is Forbidden", which follows the work of Chinese designer Guo Pei. I've heard it's well-made but likely to be of interest only to those interested in the world of fashion.

Greece and Portugal always seem to be in the bottom tier. PORTUGAL, which holds the distinction of the most Oscar submissions without a nomination, has selected "Pilgrimage" a 16th century historical drama about Portuguese seafarers on a voyage around Asia. Production values appear strong but the film has no international awards, has gotten mostly middling reviews and depends on some rather old-fashioned Portuguese and music that isn't guaranteed to appeal domestically or overseas. Last and least is "Polyxeni" from GREECE which is basically a long drawn-out and occasionally confusing soap opera about a Greek woman from a wealthy family in Ottoman Turkey whose extended family tries to drive her mad and steal her money when her respectable parents die.

NOT STRONG ENOUGH

16. LUXEMBOURG- "Gutland"
15. CANADA- "Chien de garde" (Family First)
14. FINLAND- "Euthanizer"
13. SPAIN- "Campeones" (Champions)

I've seen three of these four, but not yet the film from CANADA. "Family First" is a family drama about a young man who wants to distance himself from the criminal activities of his family. Reviews have been mixed so this was an unusual choice for Canada. It seems perhaps they wanted to select a film by a young, female director?

I personally loved "Euthanizer", a dark, dark thriller from FINLAND....but most people hate it and it has no choice of advancing. It's a revenge movie as well as a (rather sick) love story about a 50-something man who makes his living euthanizing animals. He believes (quite rightly) that the animals are suffering largely because of the actions of their owners. Again, it's a wild ride and American audiences won't be able to handle it. SPAIN made the odd choice of selecting comedy "Campeones" (Champions). It's a comedy about a basketball coach who is sentenced to community service working with metally disabled adults. It's certainly entertaining, but it's also formulaic and predictable and reminded of an American 80s movie. I enjoyed it, but it's a non-starter for an Oscar. Last we have quirky thriller "Gutland" from LUXEMBOURG, about a German thief who hides out in a very strange town in Luxembourg. I usually like films like this but I found it a bit confusing and occasionally slow going. On reflection, the film maybe makes sense.

UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE

12. ICELAND- "Woman at War"
11. NETHERLANDS- "The Resistance Banker"
10. ITALY- "Dogman"
9. TURKEY- "Wild Pear Tree"
To be completed later.....

DARK HORSES
8. UNITED KINGDOM- "I Am Not A Witch"
7. FRANCE- "La douleur" (Memoir of War)
6. BELGIUM- "Girl"
5. AUSTRALIA- "Jirga"

A lot of people are predicting Golden Globe nominee "Girl" and BAFTA winner "I Am Not A Witch". They're both very possible but I'd be a little surprised to see them on the shortlist. I've seen the two films, both of which focus on issues of identity for unusual young girls that don't necessarily conform to societal norms. BELGIUM's "Girl" is about a transgender 16 year old who is both obsessed with her vocation as a ballerina, and with speeding up the hormone treatments that will help her complete her biological transition. I was really surprised by the Golden Globe nomination because, although well-made, this is really a small indie with an amazing lead performance. Lara, the lead character, may be suffering through stress but she has a supportive family, school and (for the most part) friends. There's very little conflict other than that between Lara and her own body. That and a ludicrous ending made a potentially great film merely good. "I Am Not A Witch" is representing the UNITED KINGDOM but also unofficially representing ZAMBIA, where the film was made. It's about a little orphan (?) girl who appears in a village out of nowhere and is accused of being a witch. She is sent to a community for women accused of witchcraft and adopted by a man who seeks to exploit her allegedly magical powers. It's refreshing and exotic and original. But it's all a little too whimsical and (like "Girl") also could have punched up the ending (which I liked). Both of these films are debut films by promising new directors. I just don't necessarily think they'll score here.

I haven't seen the World War II drama "La douleur" or Taliban drama "Jirga" but I think AUSTRALIA has the edge between the two. Filmed in Afghanistan in extremely difficult conditions, "Jirga" is a moral dilemma drama about an Australian soldier who returns to Afghanistan to make amends with a family whose civilian son he killed while serving there. It's a baity topic and the film has just been bought by an American distributor. While I don't think it will make the Top Nine, this is sure to do very well. Last, we have "La douleur" (Memoirs of War) which was the surprise pick from FRANCE over "Custody". Following a female resistance fighter during WWII and based on an acclaimed novel. It's total Oscar bait. It got a limited US release, looks great and features a love triangle that you know can have no happy ending. Unfortunately, it's also gotten rather poisonous reviews. There are those who like it, but not enough. So, France is likely out.

STRONG CONTENDERS
4. NORWAY- "What Will People Say?"
3. GERMANY- "Never Look Away"
2. SWEDEN- "Border"

In this category we have two brilliant and deserving Nordic films....that are not necessarily Oscar's cup of tea.....and we have one Oscar bait film that nobody seems to really like but may end up being a very lazy choice by the large committee. Let's look at the three:

 Germany
The Film: "Never Look Away" A German artist in West Germany is haunted by memories of his life in East Germany.
Pros: It's well-made (strong acting and production values) and total Oscar bait with an Oscar-winning director who has already won this award (for "Lives of Others"). Oscar loves Germany and has shortlisted them 11 times in the past 16 years, even when they send a lackluster film ("Pina", "Labyrinth of Lies"). The film managed a Golden Globe nomination (over "Cold War" and "The Guilty")
Cons: Nobody seems to love it and it won't be considered for a save....It's over three hours long and probably too long.
Bottom Line: I had counted them out but that Globe nomination and German flag make them a serious threat.

 Norway
The Film: "What Will People Say" The Norwegian-born daughter of Pakistani immigrants is banished by her parents to provincial Pakistan because they don't approve of her teenage behaviour.
Pros: It's a really great film! I can't think of a single film in the competition that has a more compelling lead character. The film was mostly filmed in India (standing in for Pakistan) in Urdu, so it's a lot more exotic than the usual film from Norway. The parents are engaging yet realistic villains, and the film ends strong.
Cons: Oscar often ignores stories of women and girls. The film has virtually no buzz.
Bottom Line: Highly unlikely.

 Sweden
The Film: "Border" A Swedish customs agent with "beastly" facial features can smell fear. She meets a Finnish man with similar features and talents, leading to a strange and possibly supernatural romance.
Pros: Possibly the most creative and original film in the competition. The film take the audience in directions that you truly didn't expect. The make-up effects are rumored to be in the running for an Oscar.
Cons: This is a wonderful but very weird movie but it's difficult to say anymore without spoilers. I'm not sure either committee will go for the fantasy genre.
Bottom Line: On the bubble! I'm crossing my fingers for Sweden!

FRONT-RUNNER

1. DENMARK- "The Guilty" "The Guilty" is a rather brilliant thriller from DENMARK about a police investigator who is working on dispatcher/operator duty after shooting a suspect in self-defense. At the end of his shift, he receives a call from a woman being kidnapped and he must unravel the mystery and find the woman without leaving the operator room. It's claustrophobic and well-written and thrilling and and I think this will appeal strongly to the large committee. It's only handicap is that some Oscar voters prefer films with large-scale production values. But I think "The Guilty" should make it's way to the shortlist fairly easily.

Now the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 23

Number of countries participating this year:  21

Number of debuts: Zero.

Who's out?:  English-speaking Ireland and Malta.

Number I predicted correctly- Only 5- Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Luxembourg and the UK. Austria was a bit of a shock.

Already Seen: 12, plus I'll see Italy next week.....So far: Austria (C-), Belgium (B), Denmark (A), Finland (A), Greece (D), Iceland (B+), Luxembourg (B-), Netherlands (B), Norway (A), Spain (B), Sweden (A), and the UK (B+)

Number of Female Directors:  6- Ruth Beckermann (Austria), Pietra Brettkelly (New Zealand), Sophie Dupuis (Canada, Iram Haq (Norway), Dora Masklavanou (Greece) and Rungano Nyoni (United Kingdom). 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 27-year old Lukas Dhont (Belgium) is the youngest director worldwide. 77-year old Markus Imhoof (Switzerland) is the third-oldest, and the most "senior" of the Western directors.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  2 mostly in French (Canada, France) and German (Germany, Switzerland), plus one each in Chinese (New Zealand), Danish, Dutch, Finnish, French, Icelandic, Italian, Pashto (Australia), Spanish, Swedish, Turkish and Urdu (Norway). Roughly 50-50: Austria (German/French), Belgium (Dutch/French), Greece (Greek/Turkish), Luxembourg (German/Letzeburgesch), and Portugal (Portuguese/Chinese????). 

Number of Documentaries: 3- Austria, New Zealand and Switzerland

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It's a strong group....about ten.

Highest profile film:  Hard to say....In terms of buzz, I'm surprised to say it's "Girl". 

Oscar History: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (Germany) won an Oscar for "The Lives of Others". Markus Imhoof (Switzerland) was nominated way back in 1982 for "The Boat is Full" and also represented Switzerland in 1991 ("Der berg") and 2013 ("More than Honey"). Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey) is representing his country for the fifth time since 2003, and was short-listed once for "Three Monkeys". 

Also in the race before: João Botelho (Portugal, "Three Palm Trees" + "Hard Times"), Benedikt Erlingsson (Iceland; "Of Horses and Men"), Matteo Garrone (Italy; "Gomorrah") and Iram Haq (Norway; "I Am Yours"). 

Most Notable Omissions:  The Western countries always have plenty to choose from, forcing at least four early front-runners to bow out before the race even got started, including two new films from Oscar winners- Denys Arcand's "The Fall of the American Empire" (Canada) and Asghar Farhadi's "Everybody Knows" (Spain) plus critically acclaimed favorites "Custody" from France and "Happy As Lazarro" from Italy. They ended up casualties of the "one film per country" rule. Also missing: Mademoiselle Paradis" (Austria), "Insyriated" (Belgium), "The Unknown Soldier" (Finland), "Transit" (Germany), "U-July 22" (Norway) and "Becoming Astrid" (Sweden). 

Familiar Faces: Plenty of people are "familiar" in their own countries, but American audiences are probably going to recognize Vicky Krieps ("Phantom Thread") who co-stars in "Gutland", and Adil Hussain ("Life of Pi") who plays the evil father in "What Will People Say". 

Last year's race: I saw 17 of last year's 22 "Western" submissions. My favorite was Golden Globe winner "In the Fade" from Germany which was shortlisted but failed to be nominated for an Oscar. Denmark's "You Disappear" was a close second. I was surprised both of them got such bad press. The weakest were Ireland and New Zealand (which clearly don't have much to choose from) and the dreary "Summer 1993". from Catalonia/Spain. 

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS- Western Europe

Here are my predictions for the 21 nations of Western Europe. Though they traditionally dominate the Oscars, last year they only secured two spots on the shortlist (for overrated Oscar nominee "The Square" and underrated Golden Globe winner "In the Fade") so their dominance has slippel;d.

1.   AUSTRIA- “The Murer Case” With three nominations (two wins) in eleven years, Austria usually has quite a few options to choose from. This year, I see five major contenders: (1)- “Angelo” (San Sebastian/Toronto), about an 18^th century West African slave brought to Europe and educated to be an elite servant, (2)- "Joy" (Venice Days), about a West African woman brought to Austria and forced into prostitution, (3)- “Mademoiselle Paradis”, an 18^th century period drama about a young blind, piano prodigy, and the doctor trying to heal her sight, (4)- “The Magician” (Zauberer), a thriller telling a number of interlocking stories, and (5)- “The Murer Case”, a courtroom drama about an Austrian SS officer who killed thousands of Lithuanian Jews during WWII but did not go on trial until the 1960s. A sixth contender- “Styx”- is a mostly wordless film, but the spoken dialogue is mostly in English so I think it would be disqualified if selected. It’s a very even race; I give the edge to “The Murer Case” due to AMPAS’ affection for Holocaust dramas, but the sumptuous costumes and period pieces of “Mademoiselle Paradis” make that film a very strong contender. “Joy” and “Angelo” don’t have domestic release dates yet, so they may contend for next year.

2.   BELGIUM- “Insyriated” Last year, I was somewhat surprised that Belgium did not select acclaimed Arabic-language drama “Insyriated” (Audience Award, Berlin Panorama 2017). This year, most Oscar watchers are expecting that Belgium will send “Girl”, easily the most acclaimed local film of 2018. However, if you pay attention to the release dates, “Insyriated” debuted in Belgian cinemas on October 11, 2017 and “Girl” (Cannes) isn’t set to premiere until October 17^th, 2018. So, for now, “Insyriated” is eligible and “Girl” isn’t, though Belgium could easily do an early qualifying release if they wanted to (they did it last year for “Racer and the Jailbird”).  I think “Insyriated”, the story of a Syrian family trapped in their home when their neighborhood comes under attack, will ultimately represent Belgium and “Girl”, about a trans girl going through adolescence, will contend for next year. As you may know, Belgium has two independent film industries catering to its French-speaking (Walloon) and Dutch-speaking (Flemish) populations. “Insyriated” dominated the 2018 Maigritte Awards  in the French sector. The nominations for the Flemish Ensor Awards were announced this week and the winners will be announced on September 15^th. Ironically, the frontrunner from the Flemish side is another Middle Eastern drama- “Zagros”, the story of a Kurdish family that emigrates to Belgium, where the wife adjusts easily to her newfound freedoms while her husband fails to assimilate. Rounding out this year's Top Five are some more movies showcasing Belgian multiculturalism: “The Faithful Son” (La part sauvage; in French), about a Belgian convert to Islam, "Bitter Flowers” (in Chinese), about a Chinese woman who emigrates to Paris, and murder mystery-thriller “Control” (in Dutch), directed by Jan Verheyen.

3.   DENMARK- “The Guilty” Denmark typically announces a three-film Oscar shortlist, which is likely to consist of Oscar winner Bille August’s upcoming “A Fortunate Man”, critical darling thriller “The Guilty”, and family drama “Winter Brothers” which won both Best Picture awards at Denmark’s two national film awards this year. We could also see “The Charmer” (about an Iranian gigolo) or “While We Live” (after the aftermath of a tragic accident) sneak into the final three, but the Danish nominee is almost certainly going to be one of the above three films.  I’m going to predict “The Guilty” (the only film on this list of predictions that I’ve actually seen) which has by far the strongest buzz. It’s the story of a police detective on 911 call duty who gets a phone call from a woman who says she has been kidnapped by her abusive husband. He has to figure out how to save the woman, and locate her children who have been left at home. It’s a great mystery and an even better thriller, and it easily has the credentials both to appeal to discerning film critics and to a mainstream American audience. Bille August won an Oscar for “Pelle the Conqueror” but nobody has yet seen the nearly three-hour “A Fortunate Man”, about a successful man trying to avoid making the same mistakes with his own family that his conservative, religious family made when raising him. It’s likely to make the list, but August’s best days seem to be behind him. As for Icelandic co-production “Winter Brothers”, despite great reviews it’s at a disadvantage having been released so early. I think “The Guilty” will beat “A Fortunate Man”, while “Winter Brothers” will be relegated to third.

4.   FINLAND- “Laugh or Die” Looking over my blog, I’ve only predicted Finland correctly once in ten tries (“Letters to Father Jacob”, way back in 2009). So statistically speaking, my prediction- “Laugh or Die”- is a long shot. With shades of both “Life is Beautiful” and “Land of Mine”, “Laugh or Die” is a jet-black comedy-drama about a troupe of Finnish actors condemned to death during the Finnish Civil War. The men are given one last chance, and are promised that they will be allowed to live if they can make a visiting German commander laugh. Finland’s Oscar committee does sometimes go “historical”, though they rarely select big war movies. With no frontrunner, I think “Laugh or Die” will get this. If they want to go for a more contemporary film, they could select Aleksi Salmenperä a third time for his B&W dramedy “Void”, which will premiere at the end of September. It’s the story of a writer married to an actress and their obsession with furthering their own careers at the expense of their marriage. Finland has chosen B&W movies two of the past four years. In third place: 3-hour war epic “The Unknown Solider” by Aku Louhimies, who directed my favorite Finnish film (“Frozen Land”) and who I’ve incorrectly predicted twice. In fourth place: documentary “Wheels of Freedom”. In fifth: heavy metal comedy “Heavy Trip”.

5.   FRANCE- "Custody" France is nominated so frequently that it's easy to forget that they've only won once in the past 40 years (for "Indochine" in 1992/93). To put that into context, out of all the countries that have won the Oscar, almost all of them have managed a win since the victory of "Indochine" (all except Algeria, Sweden and Switzerland). "Custody" almost seems too obvious. It's been to dozens of festivals since it debuted at Venice 2017, winning the Silver Lion. It's gotten excellent reviews from critics and audiences. It's very much a thriller disguised as a family drama. Most importantly, as we learned from Iran's "A Separation", it's a subject that American audiences can easily relate to. I actually was pretty sure that France would select one of two glossy period dramas set to debut in September, namely "Mademoiselle de Joncquières" (Toronto) and "One Nation, One King" (Venice). The trailer for the expensive, all-star drama of "One Nation, One King" looks beautiful, but I worry that the French history lesson will be perceived as being over the heads of American audiences. France wants to win. As for "Mlle. de Joncquières", the plotline sounds like a totally luscious, vengeful "Dangerous Liaisons", but the trailer looked a bit too light to compete for France. However, both of us will definitely have a chance if they win awards in Venice/Toronto. Obviously, France has a dozen films that could proudly fly the French colors. Three others to look out for: crime drama (1)- "See You Up There", set in the 1920s, won five Cesar Awards including Best Director, (2)- "C'est la vie" is a crowdpleasing comedy about a chaotic wedding from the team that brought you "Les intouchables". Critics haven't loved it but audiences have, and it managed a Best Pic nomination at the Cesars (People often forget that "Les intouchables" made the Final Nine) and (3)- "To the Ends of the World", about French soldiers fighting the unwinnable war in Indochina. Others titles mentioned as possibilities: "Climax", "La douleur", "Freres ennemis", "Promise at Dawn", "La villa" and "Sorry Angel", though I don't think they'll get very far. 

6.  GERMANY- "Never Look Away" Germany announced this week that they would be considering eleven films. As with many countries, this is primarily a race between an acclaimed film that has already been released (“The Captain”) and a hotly anticipated film set to debut soon (“Never Look Away”). It would be foolish to bet against “Never Look Away”, the first German-language film from director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck since he won an Oscar for “The Lives of Others”. It will debut in Venice and screen in Toronto and will apparently arrange a qualifying release (as did “In the Fade” last year) before it debuts in German cinemas on October 3. Focusing on an artist whose work is influenced by the traumas of living under both the Nazi and East German Communist regimes, it co-stars Sebastian Koch (“Lives of Others”, “Bridge of Spies”) and checks a lot of boxes. The only negative? von Donnersmarck’s last film (“The Tourist”, with Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie) was a big critical flop and he still has to prove he’s not a one-hit wonder. “The Captain” is the true story about a 19-year Nazi deserter who became involved in a series of atrocities in the final days of WWII, after putting on an abandoned Nazi uniform to stay warm. It’s cerebral, it’s gotten a small US release, and Germany may wish to choose it symbolically to showcase their displeasure with far-right movements in both the US and Europe. There are three other films on the list to keep your eye on: (1)- “Ballon” (co-starring David Cross of “The Reader”) is an upcoming thriller set in 1979 about an East German family trying to escape to West Berlin, (2)- “In the Aisles” (Berlin 2018) is a quirky romantic drama set in a superstore and (3)- “Transit” (Berlin 2018), directed by Christian Petzold, is about a man who flees Nazi Germany to France, assuming a dead man’s identity. There seem to be lots of people fleeing Nazis and Communists this year. As for the others, they’re either too unusual (Persian-language animated film “Teheran Taboo” and docudrama “The Invisibles”), too German, i.e. inaccessible to American audiences (Lola winner “3 Days in Quiberon” and “The Silent Revolution”) or reviews haven’t been strong enough (“My Brother Simple” and “Mackie Messer”). My Top Five: “Never Look Away”, “The Captain”, “Ballon”, “Transit” and “In the Aisles”.

7.   GREECE- “The Last Note” Traditionally, the Greeks select either the winner of the Greek competition  at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (this year was B&W indie comedy “Too Much Info Clouding Over My Head”) or the winner of the national film awards (this year was “Son of Sofia”). However, I think these two abstract films will be overshadowed by historical drama “The Last Note”, about the Nazi execution of 200 Greek resistance fighters, or “Pity”, a black comedy written by the man who brought us “Dogtooth” and “Chevalier”. Factor in the two films that lost to “Sofia” at the National Film Awards in the Picture, Director and Screenplay categories- inheritance drama “Polyxeni” and geriatric comedy “Women Who Passed My Way”, and you have a potential six-way race. Pantelis Voulgaris’ “The Last Note” is the most likely to appeal to Oscar voters (he was rumored to have come close to a nomination with his previous film, “Little England”) and it was the #2 Greek of 2017, so that's my final prediction. I think “Pity” will come second, “Sofia” third, and “Women Who Passed My Way”, made by an 82-year old director who last represented Greece nearly thirty years ago, in fourth.

8.  GREENLAND- “The Raven and the Seagull” Massive Greenland has a tiny population (56,000) so they rarely have an eligible film to send. This year, they could return for the first time since 2012 with documentary “The Raven and the Seagull” (Lykkelænder) about the ordinary lives of Greenlandic Inuits living on the Danish territory’s remote West coast.

9.   ICELAND- “Woman at War” Despite a population of just 350,000, Iceland has about ten eligible releases. The odds-on favorite is Cannes comedy-drama “Woman at War”, which Variety called “near-perfect”. It’s an unusual film with elements of comedy, musical and drama and it’s easily the best reviewed Icelandic film of the year. Director Benedikt Erlingsson has been chosen once before for "Of Horses and Men". “Woman” faces competition from refugee drama “And Breathe Normally” (Best Director, Sundance), about the friendship between an Icelandic woman and an asylum seeker from Guinea-Bissau. Given the visibility of the global refugee crisis and last year's shock pick of the late release "Under the Tree" over favorite "Heartstone", it's definitely got a chance.  In third: “Let Me Fall”, about two young women who re-connect 15 years after a drug-fueled adolescent friendship.

10.  IRELAND- “Penance” English-speaking Ireland submits a film whenever they have something eligible, and they’ve managed to send a film three of the past four years. This year, there’s little doubt it will be Tom Collins’ “Penance”, a historical thriller about a nationalist young priest who encourages his parishioners to violently rise against the English in 1916, causing an unforeseen tragedy. 50 years later, the priest is reunited with the boy at the center of the tragedy. Tom Collins has been selected twice before for Irish-language films and this has a bigger budget and more important subject matter than “Kings” or “The Gift”. A very safe bet.

11.   ITALY- “Happy as Lazzaro” Italy has won more Foreign Film Oscars than any other country so they always have a very competitive race. Most people see this as a battle between two films that won awards at Cannes, namely Mafia drama “Dogman” (Best Actor) and quirky  “Forrest Gump”-esque “Happy as Lazzaro” (Best Screenplay). Matteo Garrone has been selected before for “Gomorrah” (which I hated) while Alice Rohrwacher has come close twice. “Dogman”, a gritty realist drama about a mild-mannered man who becomes involved with the Italian mafia, has been critically divisive. Nobody dislikes “Lazzaro”, but this drama about a peasant and a nobleman is weird and a bit risky. Italy has made a fairly surprising choice three years in a row, and they usually announce a long “shortlist”, so they’ll be looking beyond these two films. Other options include “The Armadillo Prophecy”, based on a graphic novel about two slacker guys which will debut in Venice and premiere right before the deadline, “Daughter of Mine” (Berlin), about a daughter torn between her adopted and biological mothers, Paolo Sorrentino’s “Loro”, a biopic of Italy’s flamboyant politician Silvio Berlusconi that was released in two installments, two weeks apart, “Love and Bullets”, an ultra-Neapolitan “Mafia musical” that won Best Picture at the Donatello Awards, and “The Place”, a multi-character drama and crowdpleaser that was one of the biggest local hits of 2017. Crime drama “On My Skin” looks like total Oscar bait and landed a plum slot in Venice but the film’s partnership with Netflix and its controversial online VOD release has upset a lot of people in the Italian film industry, so I think that’s out. My Top Five: “Lazzaro”, “Dogman”, “Loro”, “The Place” and “Daughter of Mine”. Next year, keep an eye out for “Capri-Revolution” set to debut in Venice and premiere in Italy in December.

12.  LUXEMBOURG- “Gutland” Luxembourg just announced the seven eligible finalists for their Luxembourg Film Prize, which is given out every two years and which will be awarded on September 22. Films must be majority Luxembourg productions. Two were released too early, two are in English and two are cartoons. That makes quirky “Gutland” (Toronto 2017) the obvious frontrunner. Starring Vicky Krieps (the breakout star of last year’s “The Phantom Thread”), this is a “Twin Peaks”-esque drama about a German thief who tries to hide out in a strange little Luxembourgian town. Luxembourg has chosen documentaries and animated films to represent them before. So, you can’t entirely count out the animated “White Fang” (based on the Jack London novel) which was made in both French and English versions (the English version features the voices of Paul Giamatti, Rashida Jones and Nick Offerman) or “Sixty8”, by Andy Bausch (possibly Luxembourg’s most popular local director), a documentary about the Grand Duchy in the counterculture 1960s.

13.   MALTA- “Fate” Tiny Malta has only submitted a film once but they have a number of Maltese-language films in the can scheduled to premiere over the course of the next year. I was hoping to predict quirky comedy “Limestone Cowboy”, about an eccentric old man obsessed with America, who decides to run for town mayor. Unfortunately, it looks like it never got a domestic release. So, I’m predicting “Fate” (Id-Destin), a new crime drama.

14.  THE NETHERLANDS- “Rafael” The Netherlands was the first European country to announce a shortlist, naming nine potential contenders. With the Dutch absent from nearly every major film festival this year, it was a list of films and directors that were relatively unknown outside of Holland. Three of these films can be eliminated right off the bat- three-hour medieval action movie “Redbad” has gotten terrible reviews at home, “Life is Wonderful” looks like an entertaining but silly rom-com and “Thirst”, a comedy-drama about a girl and her terminally ill mother, has no buzz and is a clear non-starter. Two others- gritty adolescent drama “Cobain” (Berlinale 14+) and Spanish-language road movie “Messi and Maud” (aka “La Holandesa”)- would also make surprising choices. The two frontrunners on the list are box-office hit historical drama “The Resistance Banker” and Ben Sombogaart’s upcoming “Rafael”. The Netherlands has always done best in this category when they choose historical dramas but the Dutch Academy insists on sending in modernist films, often showcasing social issues. That bodes well for “Rafael”, a drama by Ben Sombogaart (who directed the last Dutch Oscar nominee- “Twin Sisters”- more than a decade ago) about a Tunisian man imprisoned in a refugee camp while trying to get home to his pregnant Dutch wife. It’s doing an early release to get selected for the Oscars, which bodes well for its chances. “The Resistance Banker”, a true story about how two brothers helped bankroll the Dutch resistance during the Nazi occupation- might be a better choice, but it’s probably going to come second. The other two Dutch films on the shortlist- Middle Eastern drama “Brothers” and upcoming thriller “Catacombe”- are dark horses but they are unlikely to beat these Top Two.

15.  NORWAY- “The 12^th Man” Since 2011, the Kingdom of Norway has announced a three-film shortlist. This year, Erik Poppe’s “U-July 22” and Iram Haq’s “What Will People Say” are almost guaranteed to take two of those spots. Both directors have been selected before and they faced off at last weekend’s Amanda Awards in the Best Picture, Director and Screenplay categories. “What Will People Say” won all three (it also beat the favorite- last year’s Oscar submission “Thelma”). I think the final shortlist spot will go to “The 12^th Man”, creating an exciting three-way race. “What Will People Say” may have dominated the Amanda Awards, but this small drama about a Norwegian teenager forced to move to Pakistan by her immigrant parents is the least likely to appeal to American audiences. They’ll clearly prefer big-budget WWII resistance drama “The 12^th Man”, about a Norwegian saboteur on the run from the Nazis. It co-stars Jonathan Rhys-Meyers but the trailer appears to be mostly in Norwegian and German. Erik Poppe’s “U-July 22” is a dramatization of Norway’s worst terrorist attack, by far-right terrorist Anders  Breivik in 2011. Told from the point of view of one student looking for her sister amidst the carnage, this will resonate with American audiences horrified by the recent spate of school shootings. It would be a divisive choice, and will likely place third, but all three of these films are incredibly close. Disaster movie “The Quake”, family drama “Blood Brothers” and eclectic music documentary “The Monkey and the Mouth” could theoretically “upset” one of those three to get onto the shortlist, but they wouldn’t have any chance at being selected.  

16.   PORTUGAL- “Soldier Millions” Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions without a nomination (34) and is the only regularly submitting Western European country never to have made the Oscar shortlist. That looks unlikely to change this year. I originally thought Portugal would select one of two big historical dramas. Alas, splashy royal drama “Pedro & Ines” won’t premiere until October and the exotic 16^th century “Pilgrimage”, about a Portuguese explorer travelling in the Far East has gotten fairly negative reviews. So, I predict Portugal will send WWI drama “Soldado Milhoes” (Soldier Millions), about a decorated war hero who fought off German troops to protect a squadron of Portuguese and British soldiers. That seems somewhat more likely than “Al Berto”, an LGBT-themed historical drama about a gay writer whose freedoms remain curtailed evenb after Portugal’s 1975 democratic revolution. It’s the only Best Picture nominee from Portugal’s Sophia Awards that is eligible this year. Also possible: Teresa Villaverde’s Berlinale drama “Colo”, about the country’s economic crisis, “Ruth”, a crowdpleasing football drama, popular action comedy “Bad Investigate” and talky crime drama “Leviano”, featuring a series of interviews shedding light on a complex murder plot. They could also choose a documentary like “In the Interstices of Reality” (Best Doc at the Sophia Awards) or “Saudade’s Labyrinth”, a documentary about the Portuguese psyche by the director of “Jose and Pilar”. Oscar watchers will remember that "Jose" was selected over potential nominee “Mysteries of Lisbon” a few years ago. My predictions for the Top Five: “Soldier Millions”, “Colo”, “Al Berto”, “Pilgrimage” and “Ruth”.

17.   SPAIN- “Todos lo saben” (Everybody Knows) Spain announced its three-film shortlist on August 14^th, making this much easier for me. Spain is going through its worst-ever Oscar drought- 7 years without making the semifinals, and 14 years without getting an actual Oscar nomination. That means they are going to be less willing to take risks. This bodes well for two-time Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi, whose “Everybody Knows” starring Penelope Cruz, Javier Bardem and Ricardo Darin, is the safest bet and the acknowledged frontrunner. Though some are saying that this melodrama about secrets being revealed at a family reunion isn’t Farhadi’s best, that didn’t stop “The Salesman” from winning an Oscar two years ago. Will the Spanish Academy choose a foreign director? That’s the only question mark, leaving the door open a crack for Basque-language drama “The Giant” and heartwarming comedy “Champions”. “Champions”, about a coach sentenced to do community service with a group of mentally challenged athletes, has arguably gotten better reviews than “Everybody Knows”, but Oscar rarely picks comedies. And Spain knows that. “The Giant” was the most awarded Spanish movie of 2017, but Western critics weren't as kind as Spanish ones. Many criticized the screenplay and said it’s very old-fashioned. Spain wants to win this, so Farhadi is the one. 

18.   SWEDEN- “Becoming Astrid” Sweden has made it to the shortlist five of the past ten years and has been nominated two years in a row. They only have a few contenders this year, and the two most likely options are weird Un Certain Regard winner “Border” and a more traditional biopic, “Becoming Astrid”. Lately, Sweden has tended to go more arthouse- in the past ten years, they’ve picked two old-fashioned dramas, three films that are more or less mainstream, and five somewhat pretentious arthouse flicks. I wouldn’t describe “Border” as pretentious like Roy Andersson or Ruben Östlund, but it’s a weird supernatural thriller about two Swedes with caveman-like features and an extraordinary sense of smell. It’s certainly original and the Cannes win is a big one. It's also the only Swedish-language film on the longlist for the European Film Awards. However, “Becoming Astrid” is less divisive, has overall stronger reviews and is definitely  more likely to appeal to Hollywood voters. It’s a biopic of Pippi Longstocking author Astrid Lindgren and Variety just called it a “gorgeous piece of heritage filmmaking”. Three other Swedish films could be selected- “Amateurs”, a comedy about multiculturalism in Sweden directed by a previously submitted director, “Jimmie”, a weird alternate reality drama that imagines Swedish refugees fleeing a domestic conflict, and “Ravens”, a family drama about a hardscrabble farmer family in the 1970s. Of these, the comedic “Amateurs” is most likely to break through. I predict “Astrid” reps Sweden with “Border” an incredibly close second.

19.   SWITZERLAND- “Eldorado” Switzerland became the first Western European nation to announce their Oscar pick on August 3^rd. Unlike Turkey (see below), there's no way I would have predicted Switzerland correctly. The Swiss chose “Eldorado”, a documentary about the European migrant crisis contrasting current batch of African and Middle Eastern asylum seekers with director Markus Imhoff’s own memories of European refugees coming to neutral Switzerland during WWII. The Swiss Academy seems unusually attached to documentaries, as they’ve now selected four documentaries (plus one animated film) in the past six years.  I probably would have predicted “With the Wind” (Le vent tourne) about a peasant couple living in an isolated community whose relationship is disturbed by an unexpected visitor.  I also might have considered “Blue My Mind”, about a girl’s unusual journey through puberty, which won Best Picture at the Swiss Film Awards, or maybe LGBT football love story “Mario” which lost Best Picture but got stronger overall reviews.

20.  TURKEY- “The Wild Pear Tree” So, Turkey jumped the gun and announced “The Wild Pear Tree” before I had a chance to make my prediction, but this was an easy one to guess. This is Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s fifth time representing Turkey (more than any other director) and he’s the only Turkish director ever to get Turkey to the Final Nine. “Wild Pear Tree” was nominated for the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and has gotten very good reviews. Although I have no desire to see this three-hour film about a prodigal son writer who returns to his home village, there was little doubt in my mind it would be selected. That was bad news for likely runner-ups “Butterflies” (Sundance), “Debt” (Winner of Best Turkish Film at the Golden Tulips) and “Yol Ayrimi” (the latest from semi-retired director Yavuz Turgul). Some expected Semih Kaplanoğu's "Grain", but that film is in English. 

21.   UNITED KINGDOM- “I Am Not A Witch” After a six-year absence, the UK returned to the Oscar competition in 2008 and has submitted films eight of the past ten years, representing a panoply of cultures ranging from Africa (2008) to the Middle East (2014 + 2016), from East Asia (2013) to the Subcontinent (2009, 2017) and from Latin America (2011), back to Britain itself (2015, set in Wales). This year, they are likely to send “I Am Not A Witch”, directed by Zambia-born, Wales-raised Rungano Nyoni, which played at Cannes Director’s Fortnight last year and shares the same innovative cinematographer with Oscar nominee “Embrace of the Serpent”. Set in Zambia, and mostly in the Bemba and Nyanja languages, it’s the story of a little girl accused of witchcraft in a traditional Zambian community. It has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and would represent Britain proudly. As for its competition, I don’t know of any Welsh-language features this year, and its main competitor on paper- Persian-language “Ghulam” starring Shahab Hosseini- (star of “A Separation”, “The Salesman”)- hasn’t been so well-received.

POSSIBLE DEBUT: 

22.   CYPRUS- "Smuggling Hendrix" Cyprus is the only EU Member State and the only filmmaking country in Europe that has never entered the Oscar race. They produce about four films per year and this year, no less than three have received critical acclaim. They include drama “Pause” (Karlovy Vary) and two comedies about the absurdity of the island’s 40-plus year division into independent Greek and Turkish mini-states. Hopefully, this will be the year that Cyprus joins the competition with “Smuggling Hendrix” (Sarajevo) which won Best International Film at the 2018 Tribeca Film Festival. It’s about a man whose dog runs away from the Greek side to the Turkish side a few meters away, forcing him to launch a Kafkaesque mission to smuggle him back. The third film- “Sunrise in Kimmeria” probably has too much English, but I’m not certain.