2023-2024 Submissions from Western Europe (18 films)

And with the list due to be released tomorrow, here is a quick rundown of the films from Western Europe. These films will probably make up a majority of the shortlist tomorrow (and many of them deserve it).

Unfortunately, due to travelling most of the month of November, I haven’t gotten to two of my Western European screeners….I still need to watch Iceland and Luxembourg before the end of the year…

I'll try to add commentary before the list comes out, but I won't change my rankings. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 18

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 20

Who’s Missing?:  Only Greenland and Malta, which have tiny film industries, did form selection committees this year…..but its possibly they simply had no films that met all the requirements. Many of Malta’s small film output is in English.

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

 

1.      SPAIN- “Society of the Snow” (Letterboxd: 3.9)

2.      UNITED KINGDOM- “The Zone of Interest” (4.1)

3.      FINLAND- “Fallen Leaves” (3.8)

According to most sources, Spain and the UK are the frontrunners to win the Oscar. Like many recent winners, they are also considered a threat for other categories, including Best Picture and Best Actress (UK), as well as Best Make-Up (Spain) and Best Score (both), which helps them to be seen. "The Zone of Interest", a German-language film by a British director, has been a favorite since it won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) in Cannes. It's about the family life of the commander of the Auschwitz concentration camp and has some of the best reviews of the 88 contenders. "Society of the Snow", beat a lot of internal competition to represent SPAIN and with its Netflix deal and familiar story, is my current prediction to win. It's about the 1972 plane crash in the Andes that many know from the Ethan Hawke film "Alive". Director JA Bayona is well-known in Hollywood. It's impossible for either film to fail to make the shortlist stage. 

In a strong third place is "Fallen Leaves" from FINLAND. While this light romantic comedy-drama is less certain, I think the fact that it netted both a Best Foreign Film and Best Actress nomination at the Golden Globes mean that it's a safe bet for the shortlist, though not for a nomination. Kaurismaki got Finland's only Oscar nomination twnety years ago, and "Fallen Leaves" is supposed to be a better film. 

EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST:

 

4.      GERMANY- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (3.8)

5.      FRANCE- “The Taste of Things” (3.9)

6.      DENMARK- “Promised Land” (3.8)

7.      ITALY- “Io Capitano” (3.7)

ON THE BUBBLE

  

8.      ICELAND- “Godland” (3.8)

9.      SWEDEN- “Opponent” (3.4)

10.  IRELAND- “In the Shadow of Beirut” (3.9)

11.  NETHERLANDS- “Sweet Dreams” (3.5)

I've seen three of the four films in this group...and I loved all three. I really hope that at least one of these dark horses makes the shortlist. SWEDEN has selected an intriguing drama set in a detention center for asylum seekers. The less you know about the plot the better, but it's awesome seeing what Iranian actor Payman Maadi expand his acting range in a country with far less censorship. I really loved this film twisty film that seems predictable but isn't....and it beat out some fierce competition in Sweden...though critics seem to love it a lot less than I do. Go watch it!

IRELAND has sent in the best documentary of the year- "In the Shadow of Beirut"- featuring four families living in a poor slum of Beirut. Yes, while I acknowledge the historical and political importance of "20 Days in Mariupol" and the quality of the Ukrainian film, this is definitely the best documentary on the list. "Beirut" skillfully tells multiple stories of fascinating people with difficult lives, while at the same time making you think about poverty, politics and the importance of enjoying and appreciating the little things in life.  It will be in my Top 5....and if Oscar voters watch it (and they probably won't), it will definitely be on the shortlist tomorrow. 

THE NETHERLANDS used to be a superpower in this category but they haven't been nominated in twenty years. "Sweet Dreams" is a fascinating historical drama about a family and their servants in Dutch colonial Indonesia. 80s star Renee Soutendijk gives a great comeback performance and the film tells a bitter, humorous and ultimately tragic soap opera about what happens when a wealthy plantation owner leaves everything to the illegitimate son he fathered with the housemaid. 

As for ICELAND, "Godland" was one of the best-reviewed foreign films of the year....but that year was 2022. It wasn't released in Iceland until 2023 so it's competing in this category this year. This film about a Danish priest virtually driven mad when he is assigned to a small community in 19th century Iceland is on the bubble for a spot on the shortlist. I wonder if it would have done better last year when it had buzz on the film festival circuit.  

MIDDLE OF THE RANKINGS

   

12.  BELGIUM- “Omen” (3.4)

13.   SWITZERLAND- “Thunder” (3.4)

14.  PORTUGAL- “Bad Living” (3.3)

15.  LUXEMBOURG- “The Last Ashes”  (3.2)

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: 

  

16.  GREECE- “Behind the Haystacks” (3.4)

17.  AUSTRIA- “Vera” (3.4)

18.   NORWAY- “Songs of Earth” (3.5)

All three of these films have good reviews but don't have any chance at making the finals. "Songs of Earth" is probably a good nature documentary but selecting it for the International Feature category was a big mistake by NORWAY. "Vera", a peculiar docu-drama representing AUSTRIA, is about an Italian socialite who gets into a car accident is also too unconventional to get votes. From GREECE, we have a drama about a poor family (father, mother and adult daughter) living on the Greece-Macedonia border in a transit area for migrants from Africa and the Middle East. Telling the same story from all three perspectives, this is an interesting little film that gets better as it goes along but isn't strong enough to contend for the next round.  

Genres:       We have two documentaries (Ireland and Norway) plus the odd docu-reality-drama from Austria (I still don’t quite understand what this movie is), and one sort-of comedy from Finland. The rest are dramas.

I’ve Already Seen: 5- Underdogs Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. The middle three are fantastic films, and I hope that at least one can make it to the next round. I will see Iceland, Luxembourg and Spain by the first week of January. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Germany’s “Teachers’ Lounge”

Number I Predicted Correctly: 8/18….Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Spain and the UK. A lot of countries had really competitive races.  

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin- Germany, Portugal (Silver Bear, Jury Prize), Sweden

·        Cannes- Belgium (UCR, New Voice Prize), Finland (Jury Prize), France (Best Director), Iceland, UK (Grand Prix)

·        Sundance- None

·        Venice- Austria (Best Director and Actress, Venice Horizons 2022), Denmark, Italy (Silver Lion), Spain (Closing Film)

Women Directors- Only 5 films had female directors or co-directors: Tizza Covi (Austria), Carmen Jaquier (Switzerland), Margreth Olin (Norway) Asimina Proedrou (Greece) and Ena Sendijarević (Netherlands). Austria has had films directed or co-directed by women seven of the past nine years, which has to be some kind of record!

Oldest and Youngest Directors- Aki Kaurismäki (Finland) and João Canijo (Portugal) are both 66. Bosnian-Dutch director Ena Sendijarević is the youngest at 36.

Languages Represented- There are 14 dominant languages- Arabic (Ireland), Danish (Denmark and Iceland), Dutch, Finnish, French (Belgium, France and Switzerland), German (Germany and the UK), Greek, Italian (Austria), Luxembourgish, Norwegian, Persian (Sweden), Portuguese, Spanish, and Wolof (Italy). There are also healthy doses of Icelandic, Indonesian (Netherlands), Lingala (Belgium) and Swedish in their respective films.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Most of them….I’d say 11 or 12.

Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- All of these countries have been nominated except Luxembourg and Portugal….and I don’t see that changing this year. The UK is the most likely to win for the first time.  

Buzziest Films: “Zone of Interest” by auteurs….”Society of Snow” thanks to Netflix….and “The Taste of Things” because of the divisive critical reaction.  

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 20, 2023):      Best: UK (4.1)  Worst: Luxembourg (3.2)

Dumbest Decision: Well, most people say it’s FRANCE for selecting “The Taste of Things” over Palme d’Or winner, Golden Globe nominee and Best Actress contender “Anatomy of a Fall”…..But France had a difficult decision. NORWAY made a big mistake in my opinion when deciding to pick a nature documentary…. But I’m giving this award to AUSTRIA for choosing a reality-show docu-drama over a film (“The Fox”) that could have legitimately contended for an Oscar nomination.  

Controversies and Changes:  Other than the failure to submit “Anatomy of a Fall”, there were no major controversies from the region, although Austria almost failed to submit a film when their new internal rules disqualified most of their own selection committee. (I think it said that all members must have two film credits in the past five years…which some distinguished filmmakers like Michael Haneke couldn’t meet).

I expected a controversy from Finland where temperamental Aki Kaurismaki usually doesn’t allow his films to be submitted….but he allowed “Fallen Leaves” to be sent without incident.

Oscar History:   In total, a whopping ten of these 18 countries have previously submitted directors.

We have three Oscar nominees in the race: Nikolaj Arcel (Denmark) got an Oscar nomination for “A Royal Affair” in 2013, Aki Kaurismaki (Finland) got one for “The Man Without A Past” in 2003 and Trần Anh Hùng (France) got one for “The Scent of Green Papaya” (representing his native Vietnam) in 1994.

I admit that I thought JA Bayona was an Oscar nominee for “The Impossible”….but he wasn’t.

Matteo Garrone has represented Italy twice before, with “Gomorrah” in 2008 and “Dogman” in 2018. Joao Canijo has represented Portugal twice before, with “Noite Escura” in 2005 and “Blood of My Blood” in 2012.

Tran also represented Vietnam for “Vertical Ray of the Sun” while Kaurismaki was selected to represent Finland three times before, although he threw a temper tantrum and demanded that two of them (“Drifting Clouds” and “Lights in the Dusk”) be withdrawn before the viewing stage.  

Here for the second time: Austria’s Tizza Covi and Rainer Frimmel (“La Pivellina”, 2010), Iceland’s Hlynur Palmason (“A White, White Day”, 2019), Ireland’s Garry Keane (“Gaza”, 2019), Spain’s JA Bayona (“The Orphanage”, 2007) and Norway’s Margreth Olin (“Angel”, 2010).

Of the 18 Western European countries, 9 have won the Oscar multiple times (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), 4 have been nominated multiple times (Belgium, Greece, Norway, UK) and 3 have been nominated just once (Finland, Iceland, Ireland). Just two- Luxembourg and Portugal- are waiting for their first shortlist spot. Portugal holds the world record for most submissions (39) without ever advancing to the second round.

Most Notable Omissions: Wow…This year, there were a lot of front-runners who failed to make the Oscar shortlist. Interestingly, ten of these countries now announce a list of the finalists that they consider (Austria and Belgium are the only major countries that don’t) so we have a good idea of exactly who came close.

 

Of course, Palme d’Or winner and Oscar frontrunner “Anatomy of a Fall” was the most notable omission…but France has so much to choose from and the “one country, one film” will always affect them the most. The other high-profile omissions were Alice Rohrwacher’s “La Chimera” (Italy), “Close Your Eyes” (Spain) and “The Fox” (Austria).

Also out: “Eismayer” (Austria), “When It Melts” (Belgium), “Before It Ends” (Denmark, by Oscar -winning Short Film director Anders Walter), “Afire” (Germany), “Black Stone” (Greece), “Driving Mum” (Iceland), “There’s Still Tomorrow” and “Kidnapped” (Italy), “When We Lost to the Germans” (Netherlands), “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” (Norway, although it didn’t even make the national shortlist), “20,000 Species of Bees” (Spain), and “Paradise is Burning” (Sweden).

Most Famous Face: Of course it’s a tie between Oscar winner Juliette Binoche (France) and international film star Mads Mikkelsen (Denmark). But I’d like to offer a bronze medal to Iranian actor Payman Maadi (“A Separation”) who stars in “Opponent” (Sweden).

Last Year’s Race: I saw 17 of the 19 films from this region last year. Although they dominated the Oscar shortlist, I mostly wasn’t impressed. The best were the Oscar-nominated “Close” and the surprisingly good “Nostalgia” from Italy (I almost didn’t watch it as I thought it looked terrible). The rest (in order):

Sweden and Iceland (A-), Portugal, France, Finland, Germany (B+) Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Malta, Luxembourg (B) UK, Netherlands (B-), Spain (C) and Greece (D). I didn’t see the films from Norway (which was only released as a Netflix TV miniseries in the USA) and Switzerland (though I have the DVD sitting unwatched in my living room).

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPE (20 countries)

 And here's the last group of countries....Last year, this group (unfairly) claimed seven of the 15 spots on the shortlist. All seven were "good" (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland and Sweden), although I only would have considered shortlisting Belgium and possibly Sweden. 

1.     AUSTRIA- “The Fox” Austria is looking to get shortlisted for the third year in a row and they have a fierce three-way race to represent the country- “Eismayer” and “Vera” (both from Venice 2022) and “The Fox” (Tallinn Black Nights). “The Fox” clearly has the best reviews and Austria is usually pragmatic and logical about their film, so that’s my prediction. Set at the beginning of WWII, it’s about a young soldier, a fox cub and the brutality of war. Many people are predicting “Eismayer”, an LGBT military drama in which a closeted senior officer falls for a young, out soldier. It’s very possible…but maybe too similar in theme to “Great Freedom”? Both "Fox" and "Eismayer" were nominated for Best Picture against “Corsage” at last year’s Austrian Film Awards….but all three of them lost Best Picture and Best Director to the unheralded Italian-language docu-drama “Vera”, which blends drama and “reality TV” voyeurism (“Eismayer” won Best Screenplay but failed to get a Best Director nomination). AMPAS is much more likely to nominate “The Fox”. But Austria has had a good year. Two other possibilities including the upcoming B&W thriller “Theory of Everything” which will premiere at Venice 2023…It’s a majority German production but Austria has picked German co-productions six of the past ten years. Corruption drama “Europa” (Sarajevo) is set in Albania and directed by Sudabeh Mortezai who was famously disqualified for “Joy”, which ended up convincing AMPAS to change the rules for films in African dialects of English. Reviews have been good and they could pick her as a consolation for the disqualification. But I’m sticking with “The Fox”.

2. BELGIUM- "When It Melts" I've read a rumor that Belgium is considering four films- two from French-speaking Wallonia (“Omen” and “The (Ex)perience of Love") and two from Dutch-speaking Flanders (“Holly” and “When it Melts”), although that's not official. All four got major festival play in 2023; "Holly" in Venice, "Melts" in Sundance. and the two French ones at Cannes.  "Holly", a Belgian take on "Carrie" about a psychic young girl who avoids a school fire that kills ten classmates due to premonition, was long the favorite since it got a coveted Main Competition slot in Venice. But reviews have been weak. A 2.9 on Letterboxd, a 5.5 on IMDB and a 50% on Rotten Tomatoes just aren't good enough for Belgium. I like the Belgian sense of humor so I'd love to see them pick "(Ex)perience of Love", about an infertile couple who learn they have a rare condition that requires they both sleep with every lover they've ever had again, in order to conceive a child. But that may be too light (though my favorite Belgian submission, the whimsical "Brand New Testament" had a similar fantasy element). So, that leaves "Omen", an African drama that really should be representing the CONGO, and "When It Melts", said to be a "feel-bad" drama about a 26-year old woman confronting a childhood trauma.  This is going to be really close...but Belgium hasn't picked a Dutch-language film in years....and that may be enough to break the tie in favor of "When It Melts" especially if the Belgians were able to convince Congo to revive its long-defunct committee (they last submitted in 1997). But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see "Omen" selected. 

3.     DENMARK- “The Promised Land” Denmark has a remarkable record in this category. Despite being one of Western Europe’s smaller countries, since 2010 they’ve made the shortlist ten times (out of 13), winning twice and getting five more nominations. Before Denmark announced their shortlist on August 24th, I was pretty sure that the three finalists would be drawn from four extremely strong candidates. Three of the four directors already had Oscar nominations- “The Liberation” (aka “Before It Ends”) by the director of Oscar Short Film winner Anders Walter (“Helium” and “Ivalu”, neither of which I liked very much), “The Promised Land” (aka “The Bastard”) by Nikolaj Arcel, the director of “A Royal Affair”; and “Tove’s Room”, by Martin Zandvliet, director of “Land of Mine”. I felt that these three would be competing against “Quiet Migration”, a quiet Korean adoption drama that played in Berlin Panorama, for the shortlist. In the end, I dumped "Tove's Room" (which was correct) but included "Quiet Migration", thinking they would want a female director on the list. "The Liberation" and "The Promised Land" made the cut, but "Quiet Migration" didn't. Instead they picked documentary "Apolonia, Apolonia" which gave the list some female representation. 18^th century period drama “The Promised Land” is the biggest of the three.,..it has international movie star Mads Mikkelsen and just premiered in the Main Competition of the Venice Film Festival, winning an Honorable Mention. That makes it far and away the frontrunner although “The Liberation”, about refugees from Nazi Germany mistreated in Denmark during the final year of WWII, is also a strong contender, while "Apolonia" is just happy to be on the list. Trivia: 75-year old Oscar winner Bille August has a new Netflix movie (“Ehrengard: The Art of Seduction”) premiering in October but it wasn't on the list, possibly because it wasn't shown in cinemas; and feminist drama “Unruly”, which unexpectedly Best Nordic Film at the Goteborg Film Festival, defeating favorites “Godland” and “Let the River Flow”, also failed to make the list.  In the end, Mads and Nikolaj should get this fairly easily.

4.      FINLAND- “Fallen Leaves” (if Kaurismaki allows it to be submitted) Finland doesn’t have too many options this year and their two frontrunners both have problems. The undisputed critical darling of the year in Finland is Aki Kaurismaki’s “Fallen Leaves”. However, the grouchy director- who cannot separate art from politics- has made six films since 1996. Four were selected to represent Finland at the Oscars....but he demanded that two be withdrawn (purposefully waiting until after the deadline to make sure that no other Finnish director could be selected instead) but he allowed two to compete ("Le Havre" and "Man Without A Past"). When his most recent film, “The Other Side of Hope”, came out in 2017, he announced (in advance, this time) that he didn’t want his film considered, opening the door for the sexy “Tom of Finland”. “Fallen Leaves”, winner of the Cannes Jury Prize, has gotten some wonderful reviews for its story of two lonely people finding romance….but there’s no way of knowing if the temperamental director will allow it to be submitted.  Finland’s second-best options, family Christmas dramedy “Family Time” (Berlin), and polyamory drama “Four Little Adults” (the feature debut of Oscar-nominated Short Film director Selma Vilhunen) aren't scheduled to be released until November and December respectively. Unlike some other countries, Finland doesn't do early releases for the Oscars. So I’m confused. If none of these are eligible, then the race is wide open and Finland will likely choose a late release that hasn’t premiered yet, probably “Lapua 1976” (a true-story factory explosion), ”Je’vida” (Tribeca/Toronto; filmed in an obscure Sami dialect) or “Power of Love” (which looks like a rural “Blue Valentine”?). This is all up to Kaurismaki. I'm hearing he has said yes....So it’s probably “Fallen Leaves”. If not, it’s probably “Je’vida”.

5. FRANCE- "Anatomy of a Fall" (Anatomie d'une Chute) France announced a 5-film shortlist today, with five well-regarded films, including four from the Cannes Film Festival - Palme d'Or winner "Anatomy of a Fall", Best Director Winner "The Taste of Things" (Le pot-au-feu), Un Certain Regard participant "The Animal Kingdom" (Le Règne animal) and Cannes Critics Week (2022) participant "Sons of Ramses" (Goutte d'or). Three of the five have big international stars- Oscar winner Jean Dujardin stars in "On the Wandering Paths" (Sur les chemins noirs, the only non-Cannes title), Oscar winner Juliette Binoche stars in "The Taste of Things", and Romain Duris stars in "The Animal Kingdom". To represent the great filmmaking nation of France, you have to have a high-profile, great reviews and be accessible to AMPAS. That eliminates three films from the list. The small-scale "Sons of Ramses", a thriller about a phony psychic facing off against a Moroccan gang, was a surprise finalist (possibly knocking out Johnny Depp's "Jeanne du Barry"??). It has good reviews but is probably too small to represent la France. "On the Wandering Paths", about an active explorer who goes on a solo trek after being crippled in accident, sounds inspiring but reviews haven't been as strong as the other four. And while "Animal Kingdom" does have good reviews, a sci-fi adventure (even an intellectual one) about a world where some people begin mutating in animals will be seen as too "genre" and too risky....especially after body horror movie "Titane" didn't even get shortlisted. So, this is very much a two-way race. The first candidate is murder-mystery-thriller "Anatomy of a Fall", about a young blind man who is the only witness to his father's death....possibly a suicide, or possibly a murder committed by his mother. The second is "The Taste of Things", a period drama about food, food and food...in the tradition of Oscar winner "Babette's Feast". Despite the reorganization of the French committee, it's difficult to see them rejecting a critically acclaimed Palme d'Or winner. "Anatomy of a Fall" has the best reviews of the five. However, they could be turned off by the fact that the film is approximately 60% in French and 40% in English. In that case, French-Vietnamese Tran Anh Hung ("Scent of Green Papaya") could contend for his second Oscar nomination. But I'm predicting the Palme d'Or winner, followed by "Taste" and "Animal Kingdom" in a very distant third. 

6. GERMANY- “The Teacher's Lounge" Germany announced a 12-film shortlist in August, including three directors who've been picked before. Before the announcement, I divided the films into three tiers:

Tier One: Afire (Berlinale Jury Prize), Teacher’s Lounge (Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Actress, German Film Awards), The Theory of Everything (Venice), A Whole Life

Tier Two: Anselm, Elaha, Sisi & I, Weekend Rebels

Tier Three: The Ordinaries, Orphea in Love, What You Can See From Here, A Woman

    In my opinion, only the Top Tier films had any remote chance of representing Germany. Germany announced before I had a chance to write the films up but I was planning on predicting the universally beloved "Teacher's Lounge", with "Whole Life" a very close second, and "The Theory of Everything" a bit further behind in third. 

7. GREENLAND- “Twice Colonized” Greenland hasn’t sent a film since 2012 and I’ve heard their selection committee is long defunct. That’s a shame because Greenland (population: 57,000) has a growing film industry and an annual film festival. If they do return this year, it will certainly be Sundance documentary “Twice Colonized”, about an activist/lawyer trying to promote Greenlandic language and culture under Danish rule. It has a Danish director but boasts some local Greenlandic crew and “creative control”. 

8. GREECE- “Behind the Haystacks” In the past, the winner of Best Greek Film at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (usually) went to the Oscars. Since the creation of the Hellenic Film Awards, the winner of Best Picture (2010-2015, 2021-2022) usually but not always goes to the Oscars. When “Behind the Haystacks” won both of these precursor awards, it became the clear favorite to represent Greece. It swept the local Greek Film Awards, and the story focus on a moral dilemma drama (I love these) focusing on a family that begins to help refugees cross the porous Balkan borders in exchange for economic benefits. But it’s not an automatic process like Thessaloniki used to be, so the Greek Academy could easily choose “Black Stone”, a dramedy about an overprotective Greek mother who agrees to participate in a documentary to clear her beloved son’s name…but who learns she may not know him as well as she thought. It got nominated for seven Hellenic Film Awards, winning one (Best Actress). It will almost certainly be one of these two but other options include “Animalia” (Locarno) about dancers who perform in tourist resort shows, “Listen”, about a young deaf woman, or breezy LGBT comedy “Summer with Carmen” (though I think that will be eligible next year). 

9. ICELAND- “Godland” Godland, about a young 19^th century Danish priest sent to a remote part of Iceland, has won tons of awards and gotten tons of exposure since it premiered at Cannes Un Certain Regard 2022. It premiered in Icelandic cinemas in March 2023 and got a limited U.S. release this summer. In any other year, quirky dramedy “Driving Mum”, about a man on a road trip with his dead mother to fulfill her final dying wish, would represent Iceland easily. 

10. IRELAND- “Viva Mary” Ireland was nominated in almost every category at last year’s Oscars and much was made of their first-ever nomination in the International Feature category for the sweet “The Quiet Girl”, a rare box-office and critical hit in the Irish language, spoken by only 2% of Irish people on a daily basis. They have had Irish language features eligible the past three years (and at least two in 2021 and 2022) which is why it’s so sad that they don't have any this year, to follow up on their historic Oscar nomination. They did have three new short-but-feature-length documentaries (50 to 70 minutes) in Irish and English at the Galway Film Festival, as well as one in Arabic (“In the Shadow of Beirut”) by a previously submitted documentary filmmaker. None of these look especially likely and I fear Ireland may be absent for the first time since 2018. But their best option is “Viva Mary”, a spare 52-minute documentary about the life of a feisty Irish grandmother who has been an educator, a sailor and a housewife. I have “Rebel Hearts”, about lesbian relationships in early 20th century Ireland, in second place.

11. ITALY- " La chimera" Italy announced that twelve films had registered to represent the country, including films directed by one Oscar winner (Gabriele Salvatores), one Oscar nominee (Alba Rohrwacher), two Palme d'Or winners (Nanni Moretti and Marco Bellocchio) plus a two-time Cannes Jury Prize winner and Venice Golden Lion nominee (Mateo Garrone). The four men have represented Italy a total of eight times, though only Gabriele Salvatores has made it to the next round, winning for "Mediterraneo" in 1991/1992. I've divided the twelve films into six tiers of two:

Tier One:  The Captain (Garrone; Venice), La chimera (Rohrwacher; Cannes)

Tier Two:  Kidnapped (Bellocchio; Cannes), Last Night of Amore (Berlin)

Tier Three: A Brighter Tomorrow (Moretti; Cannes), Fireworks

Tier Four:    Casanova's Return (Salvatores), Thank You Guys

Tier Five:     C’e ancora domani, Mixed by Erry

Tier Six:    Noi anna luce, Land of Women

The films in Tiers Four through Six either have weak reviews (Casanova, Noi anna luce and especially Land of Women), no buzz (the yet-to-be-released C'e ancora domani) or will be considered too light (comedies Thank You Guys and Mixed by Erry). Although Salvatores has won before, he's not in contention this year. 

Google Nanni Moretti's "meta" comedy "A Brighter Tomorrow" (in which he directs, writers, produces and stars) about a director confronting his complicated family history while directing a movie, and you'll get wildly uneven reviews. The Guardian called it "bafflingly awful" though others say it's charming. Though "Fireworks", about two gay teens in violent 1980s Sicily, has some of the best reviews it's probably the only one without a chance, since it has the least buzz, minimal festival play, and a subject matter that may make the Italian Academy uneasy. So they're probably out. 

And that leaves our Top 4, which includes three of the big names- Garrone's migrant drama "The Captain", Rohrwacher's comedy "La chimera" and Marco Bellocchio's period religious drama "Kidnapped", plus crime thriller "Last Night of Amore".  The other four play to what the Italians usually choose- Italy has selected three movies centered on migration and four crime dramas since 2011; Rohrwacher's film seems to be channeling Fellini and Sorrentino; and 82-year old Bellocchio is following in the footsteps of his own three previous submissions. 

While I'm rooting for comedy "La chimera", Italy's Academy almost never chooses women directors (only 2 1/2 times since 1990; Cristina Comenici was their second choice when "Private" was disqualified) and Rohrwacher has been a favorite twice before ("The Wonders" was beaten by human trafficking drama "Terraferma", while "Happy as Lazarro" was beaten by Garrone's "Dogman"). I fear she may experience deja vu. Garrone's "The Captain", about young African migrants going through hell trying to illegally emigrate to Europe, is arguably the best-reviewed film of the year and it just won Best Director at Venice. I know "Captain" is the favorite and fits the Italian Academy...but I'm hoping that Rohrwacher's Best Short Film nomination last year and the fact that Garrone was picked twice without success since 2008 (for the very good "Dogman" and the dreadful, overrated "Gomorrah") may give her the edge. But probably not. 

Bellocchio's 19th century anti-Semitism drama "Kidnapped", based on the true story of the abduction of a Jewish child by the Catholic church, just got a 5-star review from the Guardian, and will definitely have its supporters. But Bellocchio was picked just four years ago...although he's 82 and every film could be his last. "Last Night of Amore" is a slick crime drama with very good reviews...but they picked a crime drama starring Pierfrancisco Favino last year....These two are probably great films but I think this is a two-way race between the two frontrunners. 
  

12. LUXEMBOURG- “Little Duke" As far as I know, tiny Luxembourg has four eligible options (in alphabetical order) “The Last Ashes”, a B&W feminist revenge drama set in the 19^th century, “Little Duke”, about two aging friends with money problems who are surprised to inherit a debt-ridden pub, “Maret”, a thriller about a woman with amnesia, and “Wolfkin”, a horror-drama about a woman whose son inherits monstruous qualities from her estranged family. Directors Laura Schroeder (“Maret”) and Andy Bausch (“Little Duke”) have been picked before. “Maret” was the only local feature in competition at the Luxembourg City Film Festival but “Duke” has the stronger reviews. Bausch, one of Luxembourg’s first directors to work in the local language, made Luxembourg’s second-ever Oscar submission in 1998 and picking him would be a kind of lifetime achievement award. I say “Duke” will get this, followed by “The Last Ashes”, “Wolfkin” and “Maret” in last place. 

13. MALTA- “Night Owl” Tiny Malta has sent films two years in a row though the charming but flawed “Carmen” was disqualified last year because it was definitely more than 50% in English. Beautiful Malta is branding itself as an international filming location and they don’t have many Maltese-language productions. They did release a Maltese-language comedy this year based on a popular TV sketch show- “Klassi Ghalina versus Dragula”, but they surely won’t send that. If they try to enter, it will likely be 50-minute short film “Night Owl” (films can enter if they are 40 minutes or more) about a Maltese expat in Korea…but like “Carmen”, the trailer has quite a bit of English dialogue. 

14. NETHERLANDS- “When We Lost to the Germans” (written August 20) The Netherlands announced a shortlist of 15 films on August 14^th. I think we can eliminate five of these films right off the bat (comedy “All-Inclusive”, depression drama “Broken”, Netflix mystery “Faithfully Yours”, low-budget immigrant drama “That Afternoon”, and family thriller “Under Water”). Reviews just aren’t good enough. The next tier of films have mostly good reviews but are probably too small or not mainstream enough to represent the country at the Oscars- “Inside My Heart”, a documentary about intellectually disabled actors, “Kiddo”, a mother-daughter road movie that played at Berlinale’s 14+ Section, “The Man From Rome”, a comedy-thriller about a priest, “Mascot”, a gritty indie about a troubled youth, and “Under the Naked Sky”, an upcoming film about a girl with an intellectually disabled mother. And then there were five. 

      I think the five frontrunners with a real chance at representing the kingdom at the Oscars are (1)- “Line of Fire”, a drama (premiering in September) about a Dutch war hero who is unable to translate his wartime successes to the real world, (2)- “Lost Transport”, a Holocaust drama about three women from three nationalities who find friendship in the closing days of WWII, (3)- “Summer Brother”, the Closing Film for this year’s Nederlands Film Festival, about a boy developing a relationship with his mentally disabled brother, (4)- “Sweet Dreams”, set at a Dutch-Indonesian colonial plantation, and (5)- “When We Lost to the Germans”, a period drama set in 1974, about two Dutch boys and the mysterious disappearance of a classmate. Most people are predicting “Sweet Dreams”, which is the only film on the list that has screened at a major festival (Locarno and Toronto)… and has earned much praise as a comeback vehicle for 80s star Renée Soutendijk. And the sumptuous, exotic “Sweet Dreams” looks beautiful and is very, very possible! But recently, the Netherlands Academy has picked an underdog (perhaps one reason they haven’t been nominated in 20 years?) and has preferred small, intimate films over big ones…“Do Not Hesitate” and “Instinct” were both good….”Narcosis” was fine…”Bulado” was a mess….But what they all four had in common was that they were barely known before (and even after) they were selected over bigger titles. So, I’m going rogue and predicting the Netherlands selects the upcoming “When We Lost to the Germans”, with “Sweet Dreams” a close second, “Line of Fire” in third and “Summer Brother” in fourth. The baity “Lost Transport” whose premise is stronger than its reviews will come a strong fifth place.

15. NORWAY- “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” Norway usually announces a three-film shortlist before naming their Oscar candidate….and this year I suspect that those three spots will go to “Let the River Flow”, “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” and “The Riot”, with “Dancing Queen” hoping to knock one of those films out of the third slot. The Norwegian Academy sometimes chooses its most “critically acclaimed” film of the year (“Hope”, “Worst Person in the World”) but they often go with their “biggest, most impressive” films of the year (“War Sailor”, “The Wave”, “Kon-Tiki”), in an effort to impress AMPAS voters. “Let the River Run” tells the true story of a Sami (Lapp) indigenous community in northern Norway fighting back against government efforts to build a dam. This story, set between 1979-1981, tells the story of an important moment in Norwegian history and won Best Picture and Best Director at the 2023 Amanda Awards (“War Sailor” didn’t get a Picture, Director or Screenplay nomination). “Narvik” didn’t do very well at the Amandas (it got a Best Actress nomination and four tech nods) and reviews aren’t nearly as good as “River”. But it’s one of the most expensive Norwegian movies ever made, it has a Netflix streaming deal in the U.S., and it tells the patriotic story of the first defeat of Nazi forces during WWII, by Norwegian forces. Last year’s shortlist was almost entirely films that had U.S. distribution deals (“War Sailor” premiered on Netflix after the announcement of the shortlist) and “Narvik” will likely resonate more with American audiences. “The Riot” (Sulis) is the third period contender. Directed by Nils Gaup, who directed Norway’s first Oscar nominee in the modern era (“Pathfinder”), The Riot” is about an early 20^th century mining rebellion. The fourth strong contender- “Dancing Queen”- is described by one Letterboxd reviewer as “Napoleon Dynamite meets Pitch Perfect meets John Hughes” (!) and is a well-liked feel-good dance movie but it may have trouble shifting one of the three heavyweights. A few dark horses: “Sister, What Grows Where Land Is Sick?” got an Amanda Best Pic nomination against “Let the River Flow” and comedy “Sick of Myself” (which was on Norway’s shortlist last year); societal satire “The Hypnosis” (Karlovy Vary); and documentary “Last Film” is about a filmmaker trying to complete his final film. I think “Narvik” has the edge, though “Let the River Flow” (#2) and “The Riot” (#3) are extremely close.

16. PORTUGAL- “Bad Living” Portugal did the unthinkable last year….They picked a good film! No women whispering in the dark….No narrators reading poetry about their relatives….No three-hour run-times…..”Alma Viva” was charming, original and special. Bravo Portugal! Keep going! Portugal almost always chooses a film that premiered at one of the big festivals…Nine of the past ten years, the Portuguese submission premiered at Berlin, Cannes, Locarno or Venice. That means the frontrunners are “Bad Living” (Silver Berlin Bear Jury Prize at Berlin 2023) and “Tommy Guns” (winner of two minor awards at Venice 2022) or- less likely- “Legua" (Cannes) or "Baan” or “Manga d’Terra” (both Locarno 2023). I think “Bad Living”, about a group of female relatives sniping at each other while running a hotel, will be picked. It’s high-profile and has mostly positive reviews. Portugal has never been nominated and probably won’t be anytime soon, but this would be the best entry for them. Other films in the mix include one by a previously selected director- migrant drama “Great Yarmouth” (Marco Martins), plus glossy period movies- crime drama “Worst Man in London” and artist biopic “Amadeo”. My predictions for the Top Four: “Bad Living”, “Tommy Guns”, “Worst Man in London” and “Great Yarmouth”. I expect all four on the shortlist. (UPDATE: Only "Bad Living" made the real 4-film Portugal shortlist, along with "Legua", "Living Bad" and an animated cartoon called "Nayola"....But "Bad Living" ended up being selected as Portugal's Oscar candidate). 

17. SPAIN- "Society of Snow"

18.SWEDEN- “Paradise is Burning” Ever since 2019, Sweden has joined their fellow Scandinavians in announcing a three-film shortlist prior to announcing their final candidate. I suspect that will be “Opponent”, a Persian/Swedish-language drama about wrestling, “Paradise is Burning”, which will premiere in Venice next month, and Levan Akin’s upcoming drama “Passage” (aka “Crossing”) set in Turkey and Georgia. A half dozen other films could get that third shortlist spot, including new films by previously submitted directors Lukas Moodysson (“Together 99”, a sequel) and Andreas Ohman (“One Day All This Will Be Yours”, which has weak reviews) plus “The Abyss”, “Bullets”, “Exodus” (an Arabic-language human trafficking drama, and the mostly likely of the six) and “The Sugar Experiment”. Any of the Top Three could easily get picked; only “Opponent”, which stars Payman Maadi (the husband from “A Separation) as a middle-aged immigrant who gets asylum in Sweden and joins a wrestling club, has screened for critics. Akin has been selected once before so I suspect his queer drama will be beaten by “Paradise is Burning”, a baitier film about three teens trying to survive after being abandoned by their mother. “Opponent” will likely come a very close second. (UPDATE: "Paradise is Burning" and "Opponent" made the Swedish shortlist but "Crossing" didn't premiere in time. "Together 99", rather than "Exodus", got the third slot but it won't be selected. This is down to the Top Two). 

19. SWITZERLAND- “Let Me Go” (Written August 3^rd) Switzerland announced a seven-film shortlist today and will announce their final pick at the Locarno Film Festival tomorrow. It’s a pretty obscure list with five fiction features and two documentaries (they’ve picked four documentaries in the past ten years). Three are from French-speaking Switzerland, two from German-speaking Switzerland, one from Italian-speaking Switzerland and one from Georgia (and not from Switzerland at all!) Here are my predictions:

1.     Let Me Go (French)- This obscure French-language feature played at a Cannes sidebar for independent films (ACID). It’s about the mother of a disabled child who finds satisfaction in anonymous sexual encounters with travelers…who is shocked when one man decides to stay and begin a relationship…which she’s not sure she wants. It’s said to be a divisive film, but the good reviews are quite good.

2.     Blackbird Blackbird Blackberry (Georgian)- If this were really a Swiss film, I think it would get picked. It probably has the best reviews and premiered in Cannes Director’s Fortnight….and Switzerland last won the Oscar for a film in Kurdish….But it’s really not a Swiss film so I think it will be the runner-up. Director Elene Naveriani studied film in Switzerland.

3.     Thunder (French)- A film about faith and friendship set in a small village when a novice nun returns home after the mysterious death of her sister. It is probably considered the favorite and has the most festival play since debuting at Toronto 2022. But it lost the Swiss Film Prize to “A Piece of Sky”, which wasn’t a huge critical success, winning just Best Sound and Best Score. I think Switzerland would rather pick something new. (UPDATE: This is the film Switzerland ended up selecting)

4.     Last Dance (French)- Premiered at Locarno, Switzerland’s leading film festival. It’s a well-reviewed comedy-drama about a widower adjusting to life after his wife’s death. Switzerland picked the unheralded comedy “Wolkenbruch” a few years ago (though that had a Netflix deal) though it’s certainly not as serious as the other entries.

5.     Röbi geht (German)- A documentary following a 75-year old who refuses chemotherapy when he’s told he has three months to live. Completely off the radar….I had to add it to IMDB.

6.     Becoming Giulia (Italian)- A documentary about a prima ballerina trying to return to the cutthroat world of ballet months after giving birth…Good reviews but it’s a small movie, even for Switzerland.

7.     A Forgotten Man (German)- Based on a true story about the homecoming of the Swiss Ambassador who served in Berlin when Switzerland chose neutrality during WWII, “A Forgotten Man” looks like total Oscar bait. But ever since the Swiss Film Prize was created in 1998, all their Oscar submissions got nominated for Best Feature Film or Best Documentary Feature except twice (2002 and 2007….long, long time ago). But “A Forgotten Man” didn’t so I think it’s out.  

20. UNITED KINGDOM- “Zone of Interest”- The UK is rarely a serous contender in this category. This used to be a showcase for Welsh cinema (both of the UK’s Oscar nominations in this category were Welsh films in the 1990s) but in the past ten years, only one Welsh film has been selected; another five were based in the Islamic world (Iran, Pakistan and Turkey), two in Africa (Malawi and Zambia) and one in Asia (Philippines). This year the UK is one of the frontrunners, having won the Cannes Jury Prize for “Zone of Interest”, a German-language film by UK director Jonathan Glazer, about the home life of the superintendent of Auschwitz Death Camp.  That’s bad news for “Y Swyn”, a well-reviewed Welsh political drama. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS is the only EU country that has never sent a film to the Oscars and they'll probably send something eventually. This year's multi-strand "Iman", about three seemingly unrelated stories that come together during a terrorist attack, has played at quite a few regional film festivals (Thessaloniki, Sofia, Cyprus Film Days). It would be a fitting first submission for Cyprus. They also have abstract romantic drama "Embryo Larva Butterfly" (Thessaloniki).