And here's the last batch of countries from Western Europe, including CYPRUS, which has promised to send a film this year for the first time.
Austria, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland have already announced their candidates, while the Netherlands has published a list of the six films that have registered. Denmark, Norway, Portugal and Sweden have announced official shortlists, and there is also a rumored Spanish "longlist" floating around. France and Spain are expected to announce shortlists in the coming weeks.
Austria-
Every year,
there’s one country that announces their submission before I’ve had a
chance to research it….This year, that was Austria, which announced B&W
Berlinale Best Actress winner “Rose”, starring Sandra Huller, as their
submission. I probably would have predicted “Four Minus Three” (also from Berlin) but
we’ll never know. “Rose”, a 17th century period drama about a woman
(Huller) posing as a male soldier, is certainly a very strong choice and
director Markus Schleinzer has come close to representing Austria in
the past ("Michael" is particularly good). I’m also excited to see “Blood Countess”, starring Isabelle Huppert
as the legendary (vampire?) serial killer Countess Bathory despite wildly
uneven reviews.
Belgium- “Coward" UPDATE: I wrote this earlier this week, before "Coward" was selected as their official entry.
The Kingdom of Belgium has a more complicated selection process than most countries since they have two distinct Film Associations that run themselves basically as two different countries – one based in French-speaking Wallonia and one in Dutch-speaking Flanders. To start with, each association forms its own Oscar selection jury. A Flemish jury watches the Flemish films and the Walloon jury watches the French films (there are quite a few films that are bilingual or mixed productions….I have no idea how they deal with those) and each association then has the right to submit one or two films to the finals, where a mixed national jury selects the final Belgian candidate. Unlike most Western European countries, Belgium does not reveal the names of the finalists.
This year, I expect the Flemish films will be Lukas Dhont’s “Coward”
(Cannes) and lesbian drama “Julian”, which dominated the Flemish Film Awards,
though they could easily replace “Julian” with “The Soundman”, about a young
Jewish man in 1940 Belgium....but “Coward” is the clear Flemish frontrunner.
From the French-speaking region, I expect
the finalists will be Michael Roskam’s “Le faux soir” (Roskam is
Flemish but the film is in French and the WBImages website indicates it's a majority Wallon production) and “We Believe You”,
which swept this year’s Magritte Awards......though it could also be “Adam’s Interest”
(by the director of the Oscar-shortlisted but largely forgotten “Playground”) or
“Diane in the Loop” (Venice)….So it looks like it’s Dhont versus Roskam! Both
men have been nominated for Oscars before (“Close” and “Bullhead”) and both are truly "national" directors, working in both Dutch and French. “Coward” has all the buzz for its World War I
story of wartime same-sex comradery and has gotten great reviews at Cannes. “Le faux
soir” is a baity WWII "true story", about how a newspaper in Nazi-occupied
Belgium printed fake editions to fool Nazi authorities, but it has two main challenges – it hasn’t premiered yet so we don’t know how good it is…and it
would have to arrange a qualifying release for the Oscars. So for me, it’s in a
close second place (and could opt for next year), with custody drama “We Believe You” in a distant third.
CYPRUS- “Hold Onto Me” Though it’s a lot bigger than Luxembourg or Malta (or Iceland or Montenegro), Cyprus has long been the only EU country that didn’t have a recognized committee for the Oscars. Apparently, local filmmakers have been complaining for years, and the Cypriot Ministry of Culture finally did the necessary paperwork and will enter this year. Most of their films are co-productions with Greece but they seem to have six eligible films at festivals this year. The two obvious frontrunners are thriller “Broken Vein” and coming-of-age drama “Hold Onto Me”. “Broken Vein” is a bigger movie, but “Hold Onto Me”, about an 11-year old trying to reconnect with her estranged mother, won the Audience Award at Sundance (a huge achievement for Cyprus) as well as Best Cypriot Film at the local festival. It’s also got Ministry backing while “Broken Vein"'s director has been based in Greece for years (see GREECE). Welcome to Hollywood, Cyprus!
Denmark- “What Lies Between Us” AMPAS loves Denmark. Last year was a rare year that they weren’t shortlisted…and yet they still won an Oscar when “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (deservedly) won Best Documentary Feature instead. Like Norway and Sweden, Denmark always releases a three-film shortlist. I correctly predicted that “What Lies Between Us” and “Woman Unknown” would make the list easily, with half a dozen other titles trying to get that final slot. I was pretty sure it would be one of five options- uncomfortable family dramas “Cute” (San Sebastian) and “The Guest” (Karlovy Vary) starring Trine Dyrholm, plus Yugoslav immigration drama “Home” (Rotterdam), documentary “Rescue” (Toronto), and gay Danish/Faroese horror-drama “No Rest for the Wicked”. In the end, I predicted “The Guest” would get the final place on the shortlist but instead it went to "Home".
Denmark will announce its final candidate on September 25. Both Danish frontrunners are hoping for automatic entries to the Oscars before that, at Venice (“Woman Unknown”, September 12) and Toronto (“What Lies Between Us”, September 20) but that's statistically unlikely, so one of these two will surely represent the Kingdom this year. May el-Toukhy is one of the few Danish directors to strike out at the Oscars in recent years - “Queen of Hearts” was good but it was one of just three Danish films since 2010 that completely struck out.....so they may hesitate to give her a second chance. I’m pretty sure this will go to “What Lies Between Us”, about a middle-class family trying to protect their underage son when he is accused of participating in a terrible sexual assault. If it wins in Toronto, then el-Toukhy’s period drama, about a post-WWII nanny harboring a secret, will go. "Home" is extremely unlikely.
Faroe Islands- "Birita" Cyprus has promised to enter the race this year. Could we also see a debut from the Faroe Islands (pop: 57,000)? The Faroe Islands is a country within the Kingdom of Denmark. It has a political status similar to Greenland, with its own language, currency, flag, and sports teams. Last year, they began to submit films for the Nordic Film Prize (where each country is allowed one film) and unexpectedly won the award. This year's Nordic Film Prize candidate from the Faroe Islands is a documentary called "Birita", about a theatrical family who decide to make a film starring their mother, who suffers from Alzheimers.
Finland- “Tell Everyone” Finland has a wide-open race with six previously submitted directors in the running: Alli Haapasalo (selected in 2022), Klaus Härö (2003, 2005, 2009 and 2015), Antti Jokinen (2012), Dome Karukoski (2008 and 2017), Aleksi Salmenperä (2004 and 2007) and Selma Vilhunen (2019).....plus some other very good options. I think the five frontrunners (in alphabetical order) are: (1)- “Blue Baby” (Härö), a soon-to-be-released drama about a nurse torn between caring for a sick infant and her commitmetto a labor strike, (2)- “Hippo Love” (Karukoski), a comedy-drama about an unhappily married man connecting with a beautiful woman at a wedding, (3)- “The Kidnapping of the President”, a black comedy about a far-right terror group kidnapping the new Finnish president in 1930, (4)- “The Reading Club of Kabul”, a documentary about Afghan women, and (5)- “Tell Everyone” (Haapasalo), the true story of Finnish women cruelly exiled to a remote island in the 1890s for routine female medical issues. The only Finnish film at a major film festival this year was horror-drama “Nightborn” (co-starring Rupert Grint from the Harry Potter movies!). It competed in Berlin but won’t be released until November (and has a lot of English?) so it’s not eligible. Finland picked a fun comedy last year but this year I think this will come down to the two most serious entries- “Blue Baby” and “Tell Everyone”. Both directors have been picked before and the decision will probably come down to how well “Blue Baby” is received when it premieres in early September. “Tell Everyone” is supposed to be very good but it's said to be a very grim, depressing and difficult film….In the end, I think that’s the one Finland will choose.
France- "La Gradiva" France, as always, has a difficult decision. And, as always, no matter what they choose, people will get angry at them. That's what happens when you have the world's greatest film industry in the non-English-speaking world. This year, everyone is watching to see if they will pick Cannes Grand Prix winner "Minotaur", a Russian film made by two-time Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. If they do, it will be France's second submission in a row made by a foreign director, and its third film in a row not in the French language. For French directors making great films, that has to sting.
It's very possible they'll pick "Minotaur"....It's eligible. But I think they'll want to reward a French director this year. Ironically, the favorite this year was Iranian director Asghar Farhadi and megastar Isabelle Huppert...but "Parallel Tales" flopped with critics so that's likely out of the running. For actual French films, I hear people talking about "Good Little Soldier" (Venice), "Iron Boy", "La Gradiva" (Cannes), "A Man of His Time" (Cannes), "Moulin" (Cannes; by Hungarian Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes) "The Rays and Shadows" and the two-part deGaulle biopics. Of these options, "La Gradiva" and "Of Rays and Shadows" seem to have the best reviews and the best chance. Reviews for "Moulin" aren't good enough (and if they're going to pick a foreign director, they might as well choose Minotaur)...."Iron Boy" is a (very well-reviewed) animated film and they'd have a hard time defending that over "Minotaur" too.....The biopics of anti-American deGaulle will be of no interest to American audiences. "Rays and Shadows" is a baity film during Nazi-occupied France and the director has been shortlisted to represent France before....It will be again. But reviews for the odd "La Gradiva" are exceptionally strong.
Germany- "Everytime" Well, I got this one right!....I wrote the following analysis shortly after Germany announced their shortlist earlier this month:
On August 17, Germany announced that 10 (or 11) films were under consideration to represent Germany. The eleventh film is “Minotaur”, a Russian film made in Latvia by a director exiled to France, with mostly French producers, Russian principal crew and Latvian junior crew. Although I sympathize with exiled film directors, Zvyagintsev fled to France...."Minotaur" is not a German film and it should not be allowed to represent Germany. German Films announced that its spot on the list was “provisional” while they wait for a determination of its eligibility. I think AMPAS will tell them that France should submit it instead…but they’re inconsistent on that point. Anyway, by the rules it’s not eligible so here's my ranking of the ten actual German films on the list:
Strongly in the Running-
1. “Everytime” (Winner, Cannes UCR)
2. “Oh This Unspeakable Void” (Bronze Medal at the German Film Awards behind “Sound of Falling” and “Yellow Letters”)
3. “Prosecution” (Winner, Berlin Panorama)
Dark Horses-
4. “Visitation” (by the 87-year Oscar-winning director of “The Tin Drum” in 1980)
5. “No Good Men” (Opening Film at Berlin)
In the Middle-
6. “Dreamed Adventure” (Jury Prize, Cannes)
7. “The Trial of Hein” (Berlin)
8. “23,000 Lives” (Netflix)
Happy to Be on the List-
9. “You Believe in Angels, Herr Drowak?” (Shanghai)
10. “Babystar” (Toronto)
Overall, it’s a very strong list but let’s just look at the
top half: (in alphabetical order)
-
“Everytime” arguably has the best reviews on the
list (it has the highest Letterboxd score...and that includes
“Minotaur”). I understand it's about a family’s guilt over some sort of terrible accident (I am trying to read as
little about the film as possible before I see it) and it won the Un Certain Regard category at Cannes. But working
against it?….it’s a majority Austrian film and people say it’s fucking
confusing and very Oscar “unfriendly”.
- “No Good Men”, the only genuine comedy on the
list (though it’s really a textbook example of a “tragicomedy)….This “Afghan
rom-com” was made by Shahrbanoo Sadat, a feminist Afghan filmmaker who fled to
Germany in 2021 and who made this film entirely in Germany. I absolutely loved it…and I would love
to see this film represent Germany (or, preferably, Afghanistan) though it’s
probably a little too light. Still, I encourage people to search it out. I laughed, I cried, I came away satisfied and curious to know more about the situation in Afghanistan.
- “Oh This Unspeakable Void”, another so-called “tragicomedy”...."Void" is about a 20-year old music student moving in with his eccentric grandparents.
It is the crowdpleasing choice and it has been a critical and box-office success.
While Germany usually goes “heavy” at the Oscars, lighter films like “I’m Your
Man” have been submitted and shortlisted. But it’s tough for comedies to compete.
- “Prosecution”, an angry courtroom drama, won Berlin’s Panorama section for its story of a German woman of Korean descent facing off against racism by taking far-right activists to court. Reviews have been very good though I’ve heard it’s confusing for those who aren't familiar with Germany’s court system. (Sounds like the underrated “I Just Didn’t Do It”, which repped Japan in 2007).
Finally, “Visitation” is Germany's “old-school” option. First of all, the plot sounds like an AI-generated version of “German Oscar nominee”; it follows seven decades of German history through the lens of Nazism, World War II, Communism and the fall of the Berlin Wall. 87-year old Volker Schlöndorff won Germany its first Oscar nearly fifty years ago for “The Tin Drum” and this is likely his final film. Will sentimentality lead Germany to pick it over better-reviewed films? In the 80s and 90s, this sort of film would have been nominated easily…Could a large number of older AMPAS voters still get it to the shortlist?
Some are predicting Bulgarian crime drama "The Dreamed Adventure". It admittedly won the Cannes Jury Prize but reviews are the most divisive of any film on the list.
This is a tough one! But I’m predicting “Everytime”. It could easily be “Unspeakable Void” or “Prosecution” if they want a genuinely German (not Austrian) film.
Greece- “Patty is Such a Girly Name” So, Greece established their national Film Awards (the “Iris” Awards) in 2010. Since then, the Iris award for Best Picture and the Greek Oscar submission matched up 9 out of 16 times. It went to an Iris Best Picture nominee six more times (including “Murderess”, which was the default winner when Iris winner “Animal” very publicly boycotted the Oscar selection), while in 2019 it unexpectedly went to the little-known winner of the Iris for Best Documentary Feature (“When Tomatoes Met Wagner”). In 2026, sports drama “Patty is Such a Girly Name” dominated the Iris Awards, making it the clear favorite. Fellow Best Picture nominees “Beachcomber”, “Bearcave”, “Broken Vein” and “Life in a Beat” all won major awards, so they all technically have a chance. With the possible exception of “A Day in the Life of Jo” - soon to premiere in Venice - I don’t see any other serious options for Greece. Sports drama “Patty”, about a young female judo athlete, won the top three awards (Best Picture, Director and Screenplay) so it’s definitely the favorite – though “Knifer”, “Son of Sofia” and “Suntan” did too and they were not selected. Thriller “Broken Vein” (also a possibility for CYPRUS) actually looks much more accessible than “Patty” and director Economides (a Greek Cypriot who has lived in Greece for decades) has come close before…So each of these films have a 50-50 shot….”Life in a Beat”, about a down-on-her-luck pregnant woman, and “A Day in the Life of Jo”, about a teenager’s last day of life, are real dark horses, while "Beachcomber" (a boat-builder) and "Bearcave" ( a queer drama) are likely out of their league.
Iceland- “The Ground Beneath Our Feet” Little Iceland is the only Nordic country that has never sent a documentary to the Oscars. That’s likely to change this year because the two frontrunners are “Amongst the Birds” (CPH: DOX), about an elderly couple and their friends taking care of a huge colony of migrating ducks, and “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”, a popular documentary about the residents of Reykjavik’s oldest nursing home (It also won Best Documentary at the 2026 Eddas). It’s difficult to know which of these two they’ll like better but I’m predicting “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”. Egalitarian, feminist Iceland has only chosen one female-helmed film in the past 30 years….maybe that will help “Ground”? If they simply don’t like documentaries, they will have to go with horror-thriller “Disturbed” or (and I really hope not) Hlynur Palmason’s weird new 61-minute “Joan of Arc” a sort of companion piece to the dull “The Love That Remains” about kids shooting arrows at a statue (?!).
IRELAND- “A Quiet Love” Ireland starting sending films to the Oscars in 2007 and have submitted more or less regularly since 2014. Irish-language film production is up and the majority of their submissions were made in Irish, although they’ve also submitted Irish-made documentaries made in Lebanon, Palestine and Ukraine, and fiction features set in Cuba and the former Yugoslavia. This year, they have three good Irish-language options- “Aontas”, an all-women heist noir thriller told backwards…..murder mystery “The Drowned”....and “A Quiet Love”, a documentary about three deaf couples and the first-ever film made in Irish Sign Language. Their fourth option, “The Siege of Paradise” (Tribeca), is an Italian-language documentary about over-tourism in Cinque Terre....but it was made by the same director as last year…and most countries like to spread the wealth. I’m personally hoping they choose one of the thrillers in the beautiful Irish language….but I’m expecting “A Quiet Love” will be Garry Keane’s third doc to go to the Oscars for Ireland, following "Gaza" and the Oscar-worthy "In the Shadow of Beirut". “Aontas”, which looks fascinating, is the one I most want to see.
Italy- "La grazia" I'm waiting until Italy announces its longlist, sometime around September 17. But I have a feeling it could be Paolo Sorrentino's "La grazia"....However, several big-name directors (Nanni Moretti, Gianni Amelio, Mario Martone) and others have new films premiering in Venice and rolling into Italian cinemas in the coming weeks.
UPDATE, September 23- So, Italy released their "longlist" which, as usual, is the longest of any country - 21 films. Of these 21, only seven look like they'll have any impact so let's look at this "top third"- (1)- "Children of the Monkey" (Venice), "Per te", "Primavera" (Toronto '25), "Serpenti" (Venice Spotlight), "The Spiral" (Venice/Toronto), "Sweetheart" (Locarno '25) and "Three Goodbyes" (Toronto '25). I was planning to predict relationship drama "Three Goodbyes", which arguably has the best reviews (3.72 on Letterboxd...by far the highest of the group) and a recognizable star in Alba Rohrwacher, but the film has a (well-known) Spanish director and Italy is one of those countries that I think is still sensitive about nationality. So, I've decided to go with "Children of the Monkey", about a man with a handicapped son who develops a relationship with a nephew and deals with the guilt that comes with enjoying a "normal" kid better. But dark psychological thriller "The Spiral" and period drama "Primavera" are also possible.
Luxembourg- “Child (Le refuge)” Little Luxembourg is most proud of its role as a “co-producer” of major films (including “It Was Just an Accident” last year) but they also produce a small number of majority Luxembourgian productions, some of which are in the Luxembourgish language. This year, they have two main contenders- (1)- “Apples & Pears” is a road movie about a shy 18-year old who follows the travel itinerary of her outgoing, extroverted sister to honor her after her tragic death; (2)- “Child” is a chilling horror-drama about mild-mannered parents who become involved with criminal organ trafficking networks to save the life of their young child. “Child” is the feature debut of the director of “The Red Suitcase”, an 18-minute short film that became the first-ever majority Luxembourg production to be nominated for an Oscar in 2023. So, they have two great, low-key options….one in the national language, and one by an actual Oscar nominee….It’s a dead heat but I predict “Child”. I heard someone predict “We’ll Find Happiness”, but director Lea Pool is Canadian and Luxembourg almost always chooses local filmmakers (the only exception was “Tel Aviv on Fire”).
MALTA- “Zejtune” Malta probably came incredibly close to the shortlist a few years ago for “Luzzu”, a really wonderful film that I was privileged to see in a Maltese cinema. Director Alex Camilleri has a new film this year, “Zejtune”, that won Best Screenplay in Tribeca. It’s about a young Maltese woman preparing to emigrate who meets an old man that starts changing her mind about her own country. It got a local release in April and it’s certain to represent Malta….if they enter. Last year, Malta had one of the most charming comedies of 2025 - “Ciao Ciao” - and the Maltese committee controversially decided to send nothing at all. "Ciao Ciao" was fantastic and the decision was disgraceful!
Netherlands- “Our Girls” Once an Oscar powerhouse in the 1990s, the Netherlands hasn’t been nominated since 2003 and hasn’t been shortlisted since 2014. They announced a few weeks ago that six films had registered to represent the Netherlands and they have a bit of an odd situation. Last year, the favorite was “Our Girls” by Mike van Diem, the last director to bring home an Oscar for the Netherlands way back in 1998 (“Character”). Van Diem has only made three films since then and “Our Girls” has gotten very strong reviews for its dark look at two close families whose lives are changed after their teenaged daughters are involved in a near-fatal accident. Although it was the clear favorite last year, the Netherlands surprised everyone by picking “Reedland’, an odd, arty mystery with poor reviews. It appears that the clever producers of “Our Girls” quickly canceled the film's September 2025 Oscar-qualifying release and resubmitted it this year, where it again is the favorite. This year’s six contenders include three dramas- “Our Girls”, plus “A Family” (Berlin, 14+) and “Honestly, I’m Fine”- plus two documentaries – “House of Hope” (Palestine) and “Paikar” (an Afghan family), plus an amateurish children’s cartoon based on a TV show (“Ellie the Elephant”). Other than “Ellie”, these are all very well-regarded films. Since last year, “Our Girls” won Best Film at the Netherlands’ Golden Calf Awards and did very well at the box-office. How will the committee react to them entering a second time? I’m pretty confident “Our Girls” will go, but if the committee stands by their decision from last year,then Palestinian documentary “House of Hope” could stand to benefit. Last year's AMPAS International Film committee picked three Palestinian films for their 15-film shortlist last year so “House of Hope”, made by a Dutch director at a school in the Occupied West Bank, is also very possible…though “Our Girls” would clearly be a better choice. In a distant 3rd place: “A Family”.
Norway- “Growth of the Soil” Norway is Oscar reigning champion this year, for the first time in Oscar history. Last year, "Sentimental Value" made Norway the third Nordic country to win the International Feature award. I was going to predict “Kjærast” by Erik Poppe, but Norway announced its shortlist on August 19 and it’s not on it. I’m glad I didn’t spend too much time researching Norway because two of their three shortlisted films are doing qualifying releases and I would not have expected them to be eligible. The three finalists are (1)- “Growth of the Soil” (Toronto), an old-fashioned drama set in rural Norway, and an adaptation of a Nobel Prize-winning novel, (2)- “Low Expectations” (Cannes), about a depressed musician who returns to her hometown after her career falls apart, and (3)- “Trango”, a Himalayan mountain climbing documentary. “Growth of the Soil” looks the most impressive and is by an established director….It also looks dreadfully old-fashioned. “Trango” was successful at the box-office but the Norwegian committee may remember that another man-against-nature documentary ("Songs of Earth") was the only time in the past six years they weren't strong in this category ("War Sailor" wasn't shortlisted but was rumored to be incredibly close). I’m actually not sure which of the two they’ll pick....But "Trango" just lost Best Documentary Feature at the Norwegian Amanda Awards (it was favored to win) so for now I’ll guess “Growth of the Soil”.
PORTUGAL- “Maria Vitoria” Portugal holds the record for the most submissions (42!) without getting nominated (or even shortlisted). Last week, their Academy announced a shortlist of six little-known dramas - “18 Holes to Paradise” (about a large provincial family), “First Person Plural” (a weird drama about a couple on a post-COVID anniversary trip), “Maria Vitória” (about a female footballer and her estranged brother), “Projecto Global” (a political thriller about a far-left terrorist group), “The Scent of Things Remembered” (about a Portuguese war veteran and his African caretaker) and “Terra Vil” (a 12-year old and his alcoholic father). With no frontrunner, I could see any of these films (except “First Person Plural” which has pretty terrible reviews) representing Portugal. Thriller “Projecto Global” is the “big” and expensive (by Portuguese standards, anyway) option, while the relatively low-key “Maria Vitoria” arguably has the strongest reviews, “Scent of Things Remembered” won most of the Audience Awards at the national Sophia Awards, showing popular local support, while “18 Holes to Paradise” has actress starpower, a director who has been shortlisted before (“Mosquito”) and looks far more accessible than the other three. None of them seem likely to break the Portuguese Oscar curse. I’m not sure which of these four they’ll pick…it looks like a 4-way tie. Out of curiosity, I asked Google Gemini and it said “Projecto Global” would be picked. But that looks too action-packed for a Portuguese Academy that likes their films slow and introspective….So, I’m predicting the documentary-style cinema verite of the well-reviewed “Maria Vitoria”, though I’m personally hoping it’s “18 Holes to Paradise” since it’s the only one I actually want to see. I was surprised to see "I Only Rest in the Storm" (Cannes), "Lavagante" and "Night Passengers" absent from the shortlist. Did they not apply?
Spain- “La bola negra” There’s a nine-film “longlist” of Spanish films that have supposedly registered....Another list says there are 13…I’m not sure if either of these are real but let’s assume the 9-film list is because three of the films seem 95% locked to be on Spain’s traditional 3-film shortlist, which is scheduled to be announced next week, on Thursday, September 3. These three are: “La Bola Negra” and “The Beloved” (both from Cannes, and each co-starring one half of power couple Bardem and Cruz) plus Goya winner “Sundays”.
I’d find it hard to believe that any of the
other six (ten?) rumored films have any chance. Almodovar’s “Bitter Christmas” was in Cannes
Main Competition alongside “Beloved” and “La Bola Negra”…but reviews have been unenthusiastic
(but I still want to see it!) and Almodovar is also a producer for “La Bola Negra”
so he won’t be “snubbed”. The three character studies- “La luz” (a priest with
a secret), “Corredora” (a female athlete) and “Viva” (a cancer survivor)- are well-liked…but just not as well-liked as “Beloved”,
“Bola” and “Sundays”. “5 dias con Lara” (a transgender story) and “Dos dias” (a
man with Alzheimers) have very good reviews…but they’re such small and obscure
titles that they are running uphill. But if there is a tie and a fourth film
goes through (as happened once in 2013) or if there is a shock upset, I expect “Dos
dias” could go through. The longer rumored list includes "Another League", "I Won't Die for Love", "A Son" and "This Body of Mine"....all with good reviews but unlikely to dislodge the Top 3.
But the three frontrunners are going to be a bloodbath. “La bola Negra”, an epic film about the LGBT experience during three eras of Spanish history has the best overall reviews, a Best Director award from Cannes, and the most buzz, as well as Oscar royalty Glenn Close and Penelope Cruz in the supporting cast. “Beloved” is a father-daughter drama starring Javier Bardem as a temperamental film director, and is directed by Oscar nominee Rodrigo Sorogoyen, who was stupidly not sent in 2022 (“Las bestias”) when the Spanish Academy sent the sleep-inducing Carla Simon a second time. So he is owed a spot. “Sundays” won Best Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay at the Goyas (defeating last year’s submission and Oscar nominee “Sirat”) for its story of a driven young woman who shocks her family by announcing she is joining a convent, showing strong industry support. So it’s an embarrassment of riches! All three would make a great submission for Spain. And by choosing one, Spain will open the floodgates to complaints from fans of the other two. “La bola negra” is the favorite and my prediction; but I wouldn’t count out “The Beloved” if Javier starts to get Best Actor buzz.
SWEDEN- “Brace Your Heart” This was clearly a weak year for Sweden. Although the eligibility period is October 1, 2025-September 30, 2026, they didn’t shortlist any films released in the first 11 ½ months of the year. I didn’t do too much research before they announced their shortlist on August 20, but I was predicting they’d shortlist “Brace Your Heart”, "The Quiet Beekeeper" and “The Swedish Connection” with “Brace Your Heart” winning going to the Oscars. They did shortlist Sami drama “Brace Your Heart” (Toronto), but the other two films on the list won’t actually be widely released until later this year - (1)- “Adult Supervision” (aka "Archipelago"), a comedy-drama about three fathers premiering in October, starring Gustaf Skarsgård (the less famous brother of Alexander and Bill; he starred in “The Vikings”) and Fares Fares; and (2)- “Bloody Men”, premiering in November, about a 7-year old and his fantasy world in 1980s Sweden. Nobody has seen any of these three movies, so it’s impossible to know which one is best. But since “Brace Your Heart”, a drama about a young woman who inherits her father’s reindeer herd, actually got picked for a major festival, that’s my prediction. It’s in the minority Sami language and is the most serious of the three entries. “Bloody Men”, based on a popular novel, should come second or could win if "Brace Your Heart" wins the Platform Award in Toronto. “Adult Supervision” seems to be the longest shot…but who knows?
Switzerland- “Who Is Still Alive” It must have been a weak year for Switzerland. They shortlisted three films, all made by directors from the country’s French-speaking sector, and only one was actually made in Switzerland. The three finalists were “Cosmos”, an overlong Mexican drama in Spanish, “Silent Rebellion”, a period drama set during WWII Switzerland about a village’s hostile reception to refugees fleeing Nazi-occupied France, and “Who Is Still Alive”, an Arabic-language documentary about nine survivors of Israeli strikes in Gaza. This was clearly decided between “Rebellion” and “Who Is Still Alive”, both of which premiered in Venice last year…but “Who Is Still Alive” had far better reviews and is clearly the more topical choice. After the shortlist announcement, it was obvious that this would be the film that would be picked, and Switzerland confirmed it on August 13. I've seen "Who Is Still Alive", which is an important film that highlights the lives of ordinary Gazans (including social media influencers, artists, doctors and filmmakers) and showing the world that the territory was much more than a Hamas stronghold.
United Kingdom- “Effi o Blaenau” Until around 2003, the Oscars had a rule that International Film submissions had to be made in a language indigenous to the submitting country. Because of this, from 1993-2008, all UK submissions were made by Welsh filmmakers and were at least partially in the Welsh language. Asif Kapadia (who later won an Oscar for "Amy") was selected by the UK for the Hindi-language film "The Warrior" but it was disqualified and this was one of the instances that led to the rule change. Since the rule change, BAFTA now usually sends films made by British filmmakers working outside the UK. Since 2009, only two of the 14 British submissions were Welsh and there have been zero since 2015. The other twelve films were set in Afghanistan, Germany, India, Iran (twice), Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey (twice) and Zambia. Seven of these were made by diaspora filmmakers.
Welsh cinema has been on the rise recently and I’m predicting Britain returns to Wales for the first time in a decade with “Effi o Blaenau”, probably the best-reviewed Welsh film in years and made by a well-respected filmmaker who repped the UK in 2011. Based on a Greek tragedy, it’s about a hard-partying girl from the countryside who experiences a major life change. This would be a strong acknowledgement of local Celtic cinema in a country that has recently preferred stories from the Global South. Also very possible: documentary “One in a Million”, following the life of a Syrian refugee girl between the ages of 11 and 21 and “Cielo”, a UK production made in Bolivia following a little Indigenous girl through Fellini-esque magical realism. Less likely: documentary “Something Familiar” (a Romanian adoptee) and docudrama “Without Permission” (made in Iran by the director of their 2022 submission “Winners”).
