BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS (24 countries)

It's that time of year again! Here are my predictions for the countries of Eastern Europe. Last year I got 9 of the 18 submissions correct....and I'm feeling more confident this year. Let's see.....

Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania and tiny Montenegro (!) have particularly difficult decisions to make this year. 

Last year, this region only got two spots on the shortlist (for Czech Republic and Latvia) while they deserved at least three....Latvia, plus Albania and Romania. 

 

  ALBANIA- “Luna Park” Albania should have a fairly easy decision this year. I predicted “Luna Park”, a coming-of-age tale set during the early days of Albania’s chaotic and violent post-Communist era, in 2023. The film was delayed but finally premiered to excellent reviews at Thessaloniki 2024. Director Florenc Papas was selected in 2020 for his debut feature “Open Door”, and “Luna Park” marks the return to Albanian cinema of local star Nik Xhelilaj, who has been working mostly in Germany and Turkey for the past decade. Also in its favor….it’s the only Albanian film on the international circuit this year and I’ve no idea what else they would send.

  ARMENIA- “Thus Spoke the Wind” For now, Armenia’s submission looks likely to be “Thus Spoke the Wind” (Karlovy Vary), a crime drama set in a poor village, seen through the eyes of a child. I was originally going to predict “After Dreaming”, an abstract non-linear “meditation on war” that premiered at a Berlinale sidebar in 2025 and was the only Armenian feature competing at the local Golden Apricot Film Festival. Like “Amerikatsi”, it has an Armenian-American director….but this film looks way too weird to repeat “Amerikatsi”’s shortlist feat so I think it will come second place. Also possible:  documentaries “Alone”, about a French filmmaker learning about her Armenia roots by researching ancestors who lived during the 1915 Armenian Genocide, or “Fight”, about a young girl who wishes to be a veterinarian against the wishes of her conservative family. The Armenian Academy got some flack last year for picking a comedy over an acclaimed nationalist documentary….but I personally loved the quirky “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” which was a breath of fresh air among last year’s overdramatic submissions.

  AZERBAIJAN- “Motherland” Azerbaijan doesn’t usually send a film – they’ve only done so three times in the past ten years - but now that I’m living in Baku again I really hope they return! And the good news is that they launched an official call for submissions in June so things are looking up. This year Azerbaijan had a very warmly received film called “My Magical World” at the GoEast film festival in Germany and a weird arty film Out of Competition at Venice by prolific director Hilal Baydarov. Let’s hope they send “My Magical World”, which is about a talented aspiring folk singer who is trying to get on a prominent local TV show. The problem is that I don’t think it has screened in Azerbaijani cinemas…or cinemas in any other country. The most likely candidate that did play in Azerbaijani cinemas is probably “Motherland”, a patriotic film set during the wars with Armenia in the 1990s. It was advertised as the first film to be partially filmed in the territories recovered from Armenian occupation in 2020. Most importantly, director Ilgar Safat got the Azerbaijanis to fill out the paperwork and submit one of his previous films in 2010. They also could send “Azerbaijan Atabəyləri”, a historical costume drama that looks like the movies neighboring Kazakhstan likes to send. But it’s also very possible neither of these has any English subtitles….“My Magical World” would really be their best bet.

  BELARUS- “Kinoshiki” Of course Belarus will not submit a film. They sent a few films from 1994-1996 and again 2018-2020 but were never a regular participant in this category. Since their 2020 disqualification and their 2022 backing for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they’ve been absent. If the government-allied committee did send a film, it would likely be “Kinoshiki”, a comedy about filmmaking that opened the national Listapad Film Festival in 2024. If they organize a committee in exile, then it would probably be “Motherland”, a documentary about army violence, by two Belarusian filmmakers, and which got financial support from the EU.

  BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “The Pavilion” Bosnia is likely to send black comedy “The Pavilion”, starring Rade Šerbedžija, which will open the Sarajevo Film Festival in August. It’s about a substandard nursing home. Bosnia usually does not have trouble getting a qualifying release for its Oscar contenders but if “The Pavilion” isn’t eligible, I suspect they may send “Blum – Masters of their Own Destiny”, a documentary by Oscar nominee and Berlinale Golden Bear winner Jasmila Zbanic (“Quo Vadis Aida?”, “Grbavica”) about a Yugoslavian Jew who became one of his country’s leading industrialists during the Communist era. Two dark horses: “The Will”, another dark comedy, this time a sequel to a popular film, set in a village in the waning days of Communism (it would also require a qualifying release); and “When Santa Was a Communist”, a third black comedy (the Bosnians do these well), which could benefit from its U.S.-based director.

  BULGARIA- “Windless” I hate predicting the same film two years in a row but “Windless” wasn’t released in Bulgaria until March 2025 after its successful premiere at Karlovy Vary in 2024. Since then, “Windless” won Best Bulgarian Film at two of Bulgaria’s three main precursor awards (“Triumph”, Bulgaria’s disappointing Oscar submission last year, won the third). It’s about a Bulgarian man who returns home from abroad to settle his father’s estate, and who becomes unwillingly involved in old conflicts. Its main competition is “Made in EU”, which is premiering in Venice. Stephan Komandarev is an enormously respected Bulgarian director who has been picked three times and who got Bulgaria’s only shortlist spot (he deserved a second for “Blaga’s Lessons”). “Made in EU”, about the exploitation of garment workers and the fear and chaos of the early days of COVID-19, is likely to defeat “Windless” but I think it will be eligible next year. If neither gets selected, the two dark horse runner-ups are stories featuring handicapped protagonists: “Tarika”, a drama about a superstitious village who believes that a disabled local girl has supernatural powers, and “Wingless” (confusing since the frontrunner is “Windless”), an uplifting true story of a Bulgarian athlete who continues to compete after losing both arms. Likely to appear on the Bulgarian longlist: sports biopic “Gundi: Legend of Love” and village dramedy “Wild Strawberries”. Probably not eligible: comedy “Black Sea”, about an African-American in Bulgaria, which has two American directors and I think it’s more than 50% in English.

  CROATIA- “Fiume o morte!” Three of the four films I predicted would contend to represent Croatia last year didn’t get a qualifying release until this year (“Celebration”, “Frka” and “Wrath of God”). And ten new Croatian films (not all of which are eligible) screened at this year’s Pula Film Festival in July, where two documentaries (“Fiume o morte!”, “Peacemaker”) and three fiction features (“Drazen”, “Good Children” and “Sandbag Dam”) shared the main awards. To that list of eight, I’m going to add dark comedy “South Wind”, which opened Pula and got pretty great reviews, even though it didn’t win anything. Hybrid documentary “Fiume o morte!” does NOT look like Oscar’s cup of tea…But this anti-fascist film about citizens of the town of Rijeka re-enacting scenes from a famous Italian occupation, has been a critical darling that reviewers say is creative, funny and original…and it was the big winner at the Pula Film Festival with six awards, and it also won a major award at Rotterdam and Best Picture at the Golden Apricot Film Festival in Yerevan. The Croatian Academy usually goes with something unusual and edgy, rarely choosing the favorite (“Safe Place” was a notable exception). In second place- “Celebration”, a divisive historical drama that was the big winner at Pula last year. Rounding out the Top Five in a strong year- “South Wind”, a dark comedy about the residents of an apartment building in Split, “Sandbag Dam”, a critically-acclaimed LGBT drama (but I doubt conservative Croatia will send gay films two years in a row…), and “Frka”, a youthful “Run Lola Run”-esque thriller. Unlikely to premiere in time: “God Will Not Help” (Sarajevo), about a Latina bride who moves to a rural community…..Croatian arthouse films usually take awhile to reach cinemas. Oddly enough, last year’s submission- “Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day” – got beautiful reviews but didn’t seem to get any kind of international release (and the official Croatian film catalogue doesn’t mention that it ever premiered locally either). It was the first time in 25 years that Croatia picked a film from outside the Pula universe….usually the main showcase for Croatian cinema.

  CZECH REPUBLIC- “Broken Voices” The Czech Academy has brought us the first controversy of the year. It sent its voters a shortlist of three films, but it “encouraged voters” to vote for “Broken Voices”. Czech voters and rival films said this was “manipulative” and unfair. The Czech Academy said they were simply offering a recommendation as to which film had the best chance in the U.S., and that voters could choose their favorite film regardless. Even before the controversy, I had already predicted that the three Czech frontrunners were “Broken Voices” (Karlovy Vary), “Caravan” (Cannes Un Certain Regard) and Agnieska Holland’s “Kafka” (Toronto). “Broken Voices” and “Caravan” made the Czech shortlist alongside documentary “I’m Not Everything I Want to Be”. Karlovy Vary is considered the most prestigious showcase of Czech cinema and this year the only Czech film in competition was “Broken Voices”, a drama based on a real-life child abuse scandal at a girl’s choir. “Caravan” is a drama about the exhausted mother of a mentally handicapped son whose flees the country to Italy in an RV caravan. “Broken Voices” seems to have better reviews than “Caravan” so it should be selected unless there is a backlash against the Czech “recommendation”.  

 ESTONIA- “Frank” Estonia has had a very lean year and they really don’t have any strong contenders. Their highest-profile film is a gory horror-musical called “Chainsaws were Singing” that I’ve heard is hilarious. Estonia has sent weird genre movies in the past…but this may be a bit much. I think they will quietly send “Frank”, a small but well-reviewed film about a violent young man desperately trying to make a new start in a new town. Period detective drama “The Shadow”, dysfunctional family drama “One-Dimensional Man” (too much English????), and political documentary “Rebel with a Bow Tie” will contend with “Chainsaws” to be the Estonian runner-up. On a side note, it’s really a shame that thriller “Lioness” couldn’t change its release date last year by just a few days. Estonia foolishly selected the awful “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” last year….but “Lioness” would have done well this year. 

  GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” Georgia almost always chooses a last-minute release so I’m banking on “Dry Leaf”, which is premiering at Locarno in a few weeks. Director Alexandre Koberidze came oh-so-close to representing Georgia with “What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?” in a competitive year. The three-hour “Dry Leaf” is about a man visiting a number of Georgian villages to piece together the details surrounding a missing photographer. There are also two very strong contenders that have already premiered – “Holy Electricity” (Locarno 2024), a quirky docudrama about two teens who make neon crosses, and which just won Best Picture at Georgia’s national film awards, and “Panopitcon” (Karlovy Vary 2024), a gritty drama about an incel that won a Jury Prize at Karlovy Vary last year. The rest of the top 5 options are “Venice” (Beijing), a Georgian “Two Days, One Night” made by a previously submitted director, and “Blueberry Dreams” (CPH:DOX), a documentary about a family living Georgia’s border with occupied Abkhazia. Dark horse: Russian co-production “Snowflakes in My Yard” got a Best Film nomination at Russia’s Nika Awards.  

  HUNGARY- “Growing Down” The past two Best Picture winners at the Hungarian Film Awards (“Blockade” and “Semmelweis”) got sent to the Oscars. That could happen again. This year’s winner was “How Could I Live With You?”, a popular musical-comedy which just became the biggest Hungarian box-office hit in modern Hungarian history. But the Hungarian Academy tends to choose very serious films so I think it will lose out to “Growing Down”, a B+W drama that competed in the Best First Feature category at Berlinale 2025. It’s about a man who witnesses his 12-year old son causing a serious accident, forcing him to decide whether to lie to the authorities. Musicals are hard to translate…so “Growing Down” seems the better option. Three films by previously submitted directors- “But What About Tomi?” (friendship between two alcoholics), “Jimmy Jaguar” (an arty horror film, a genre that Hungary has picked before) and “Vulture’s Wake” (a Hungarian “Big Chill”) could also contend, as could “Gone Running”, about a group of women who join a marathon to honor a dead relative. Dark horse: Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes has a baity new film premiering  in Venice and due to be released in Hungary in October. “Orphan”, his second film since “Son of Saul”, is about a boy growing up during the Communist era who meets his brutish, abusive father that his mother told him had died a hero. If Hungary arranges a qualifying release, it should be able to beat “Growing Down”.

  KOSOVO- “The Stork” In 2021, Kosovo’s Visar Morina deserved an Oscar nomination for “Exile”. In 2022, Kosovo almost got one when “Hive” was shortlisted. Two years later, Kosovo gave up entirely. Two years ago, they received four eligible submissions and refused to send any, and last year Kosovar filmmakers lamented that the Kosovo Cinematography Center (KCC) didn’t even launch a call for submissions. This year, the KCC did ask for submissions but local production has mostly been quiet. Morina has a new film in post-production (“Hatixhe And Shaban”) that I don’t think will debut in time. Isa Qosja, a Montenegro-born, ethnic Albanian filmmaker who directed Kosovo’s first-ever submission after AMPAS recognized them as an independent nation, has a new village comedy called “The Stork”.  As I say every year, I don’t understand any country turning down the free publicity that the Oscar label brings. Hopefully Qosja’s connections will lure Kosovo back to the competition where they belong.

  LATVIA- “In the Land That Sings” Latvia so strongly values its singing traditions that I think Maris Martinsons’ long-awaited “In the Land That Sings” will prevail. It’s a big 19^th century epic period piece, and Latvia tends to pick “big” films if they have them. In second place (and an inferior choice) would be “To Be Continued- Teenhood”, the documentary sequel to Latvia’s 2018 Oscar submission, following the same group of elementary school students who are now teens on the verge of adulthood. Basketball drama “Escape Net” and music biopic “Jumprava: The Happening” are by favorite national directors but probably will not premiere in time….So the only other serious contenders as of now are millennial coming-of-age drama “Youth Eternal” and scandal thriller “The Exalted”.

  LITHUANIA- “Toxic” Lithuania will have a tough time choosing just one film this year. Though they are the largest of the Baltic Republics, they’re the only one waiting for their first Oscar nomination. “The Southern Chronicles” would win the popularity contest. It’s been a box-office hit since its January 2025 premiere and it just swept the National Film Awards, winning Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Audience Award, and three of the four Acting awards. “Southern Chronicles” is a romantic-comedy set in the 1990s and it is supposed to be very good. But comedies…especially ones with such a specific national element….usually have an uphill climb to be nominated. So, I’m predicting “Toxic”, which won the Golden Leopard at Locarno 2024…and it’s so rare that Lithuania wins the Grand Prize at a Class-A festival! I think the Oscar success of “The Substance” will also help this grotesque teen modelling drama be selected. “Toxic” was the only other fiction feature to win anything at all at the Silver Crane awards. But it’s not just a two-way race! “Murmuring Hearts” won Best Documentary…even though it appears to be some kind of docufiction hybrid about a reform school…..and Lithuania likes docs, sending five since 2006. Two upcoming films- “The Visitor” (Karlovy Vary), a drama about the universal feelings of loss and disorientation when returning home after many years away, and “The Activist”, a thriller about a gay man who infiltrates the neo-Nazi organization whose members killed his partner - could be in the mix if reviews are strong enough. For now, I say the Golden Leopard propels “Toxic” to the front of the queue, followed by “Chronicles” and “The Activist”.

  MACEDONIA- “DJ Ahmet” Winning an award at Sundance- arguably the most influential film festival in the U.S. – is a surefire way to demonstrate that your film can resonate with American audiences. So “DJ Ahmet”, which won the 2025 Audience Award, is sure to represent Macedonia. “DJ” is a coming-of-age tale about a boy from the remote Yuruk community (this obscure Turkish-speaking community also got Macedonia their last Oscar nomination….for “Honeyland”). Ahmet journey to adulthood amidst conservative family and materialistic influences will surely resonate beyond his village. Variety lauded its “unforgettable ensemble, laugh-out-loud comedy and heartsore drama.” Read the reviews. Ahmet is in.

  MOLDOVA- “Turcoaica” Moldova returned to the Oscars in 2022 and had a very competitive selection in 2023. They skipped last year for unknown reasons (did they lose interest? Did the local films not meet AMPAS requirements?) so this year will probably indicate whether they plan to stay in the competition. I see four possible options (in alphabetical order)- (1) “The Alienated”, a supernatural Antichrist drama that premiered at Karlovy Vary 2024, (2)- “Povesti Moldovenesti”, a breezy anthology of short films showcasing the people and stories of Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, (3)- The Prince”, a comedy about an African prince who finds a job as a professor in Moldova and inadvertently finds himself arrested for human trafficking, and (4)- “Turcoaica” (“Turchanka” in Russian), an emotional melodrama about a man who returns his home village after a stint in prison. “Turcoaica” sounds the most “Oscary” since the other three are genre films. Interestingly enough, “The Prince” has become the first Moldovan film to get an Amazon release.

  MONTENEGRO- “Tower of Strength” Tiny Montenegro actually has an interesting two-way race this year between two period dramas about regional rivalries. Will they choose “Tower of Strength”, set during feuding Albanian and Montenegrin communities during World War II, or “Wondrous Is the Silence of My Master”, set during the 19^th century Balkan wars against the Turks. This will be a tough one. “Wondrous” got a festival premiere (Rotterdam) and tells a “bigger” story. But I’m predicting “Tower of Strength”, about a Christian refugee child who seeks refuge with an Albanian Muslim family, who is then threatened with death if they do not hand him over. The Balkans do “moral dilemmas” awfully well but director Nikola Vukcevic seems to have an awfully distinguished career in Montenegro and they may wish to reward him. But this will be a tough decision! 

  POLAND- “Chopin, Chopin” Poland always chooses a film that premieres at a major film festival. In the past ten years, they picked 4 Venice premieres, 3 Toronto premieres, 2 Cannes premieres and a Berlin premiere. The problem is that Polish-language films have been almost completely absent from the film festival circuit this year, including Cannes, Berlin, Venice and Toronto. Up until now, (August 1^st) they might have chosen between boxing drama “Kulej”, relationship dramedy “This Is Not My Film” and Belarusian opposition drama “Under the Grey Sky”. But it’s far more likely they’ll pick whichever of their 16 brand-new films at the Gdynia Film Festival they like best (and can get released by September 30). That’s most likely to be musical biopic “Chopin, Chopin” or “The Altar Boys”, about a bunch of teens rebelling against Catholic dogma. I hate biopics and I’d rather see “Altar Boys”, but “Chopin” looks much “grander”, is super expensive, and has a senior director who has been shortlisted before. It opens October 10th but is sure to arrange an early release if they want it to. In third place, “Good Home”, a drama about domestic violence, followed by the Belarus drama “Under the Grey Sky” and human trafficking drama “Capo”. Very dark horse: Agnieszka Holland made “Kafka” in the Czech Republic but it wasn’t shortlisted. It’s in Czech…but could Poland choose it now that they know nothing else was selected for Venice and Toronto?

  ROMANIA- “Kontinental 25” For Romania, I see a lot of online chatter talking about “The New Year That Never Came”, a critically acclaimed historical drama with intersecting stories a la “Crash” that premiered at Venice ’24 and which dominated the Romanian Gopo Awards. Others are talking about Cristian Mungiu’s latest film “Fjord”, starring up-and-coming Romanian-born Oscar nominee Sebastian Stan and Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve. But neither is eligible. “New Year” premiered four days before the eligibility date and ”Fjord” is mostly in English (and apparently not finished).  So, it’s very unclear what Romania will pick. Radu Jude has been picked four times in the past ten years…could he make it five? He won the Silver Berlin Bear for moral dilemma drama “Kontinental 25”…though Oscar has shown no affection for him (“Bad Luck Banging” and “Aferim!” are quite good). 81-year old Stere Gulea is a respected director who hasn’t been picked since 1996. “The Moromete Family 3: Father and Son” is the third part in an acclaimed trilogy that began during Communist times. Reviews have been great but sequels are always a tough sell. A third option is “Traffic”, a drama about Romanian migrant workers that was written (but not directed) by Cristian Mungiu. Lastly, we have “Holy Family” (Sarajevo), a drama about anti-Semitism. I do think they’ll want to give someone new a chance…but reviews for “Continental” are probably the best of the four, and the Silver Bear will help him to get a fifth chance at Oscar. “Traffic” will likely come second.

  RUSSIA- “This Summer Will End” There’s no point in spending much time talking about Russia. Russia was one of Oscar’s most successful countries, earning five shortlist spots in the eight years (2014-2021) before they quit the competition in protest at Western anger at their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine (?!). Since then, they’ve also been absent from major film festivals. If they did enter (which they won’t), I think they’d pick something with star power, or something that shows Russia in a positive light. So, I’m thinking “This Summer Will End”, starring this year’s Russian Oscar nominee Yura Borisov (“Anora”)….or maybe war film “Blood Type”, which highlights Nazi atrocities against Soviet children…. Or possibly “License to Love” which won the Russian competition at the Moscow International Film Festival. Or maybe upcoming war drama “August”. But they won’t enter so it doesn’t matter.

  SERBIA- “God Be With Us" (aka Great Tram Robbery) Ah, Serbia. They make some wonderful edgy films but their Academy literally makes the worst decisions in all of Europe. In the past six years, they’ve chosen four stuffy historical dramas about Serbian history, each time over critically acclaimed festival competition. Four of those six directors were 55 years old or older ….That would seem to make the Serbian frontrunner “Sectio Aurea 42” by an 81-year old director who was last submitted to the Oscars in 1978. It’s a baity WWII drama about three siblings who end up in a concentration camp. Milorad Milinkovic, another senior director, passed away in January and his latest- a period murder mystery called “Pearl Mist”- would also fit the Serbian profile. The problem is that neither of these has premiered yet so it’s unclear if they’re eligible. “Great Tram Robbery”, the big-budget, glossy 1920s period piece that I predicted last year, has a 78-year old director and is my pick again this year. If they want something more modern, they could consider “Bauk”, “How Come It’s So Green Out Here?” (Karlovy Vary), “Mother Mara” (Sarajevo 24), docudrama “Eighty Plus” (Berlinale Forum), and “Wind, Talk to Me” (Rotterdam)…..but they usually don’t. “Wind” has the best chance out of these but I think they’ll go with one of the big period pieces by old guys.

  SLOVAKIA- “Father” Slovakia doesn’t have much to choose from this year. They’ve been touting “Caravan”, about a mother burdened with a handicapped son, as a Slovak film, including at Cannes Film Market…but it has a Czech director, three Czech writers, two Czech producers (one producer is Slovak) and a mostly Czech/Italian cast (one lead actress is Slovak)…so I’m doubtful that will be considered “Slovak artistic control”. “Perla”, an Austrian co-production, also straddles the line but would probably be okay since the Austria-based writer-director has dual nationality. Box-office smash mob drama “Cernak” would have a chance but it’s a “part two” to a story that most Americans won’t know. The Slovak Academy likes documentaries so music doc “Duchon” or political doc “Ms. President” could also be selected. All of those are possible, but I think they’ll choose between family tragedy “Father” (Venice), about the death of an infant child, or “Promise Me, I’ll Be Fine” (aka “Utekac”), a village coming-of-age drama about a 15-year old and his mother who may be involved in criminal activities. Both are genuinely Slovak (though Slovakia often chooses stories set in other countries).

  SLOVENIA- “Little Trouble Girls” Adolescent drama “Little Trouble Girls” premiered at Berlinale, winning one small award. It’s about the tense relationships between a group of girls at a Catholic school. With its main competition – “Fantasy” (Locarno) and “Whites Wash at Ninety” - not expected to premiere until the fall, “Girls” should win this easily.

  UKRAINE- “2000 Meters to Andriivka” First of all, it’s incredible that the resilient Ukrainians are making high-quality cinema despite the war. This year, it would be foolish to bet against Oscar winner Mstyslav Chernov’s grim new documentary “2000 Meters to Andriivka” which just won Best Documentary at the Sundance Film Festival. This movie about a journalist embedded with a Ukrainian platoon is said to be almost as good as “20 Days to Mariupol”…and it’s proven to be a winning formula for Oscar. But Ukraine does have a plethora of other options, including thriller “Honeymoon”, films from the main competition of Cannes (“Two Prosecutors”, Sergey Loznitsa) and Berlin (documentary “Timestamp”), “Grey Bees” (which won Best Ukrainian Fiction Film at the Odessa Film Festival and Ukrainian Film Critics Association) and new films by acclaimed local directors Roman Bondarchuk (“Editorial Office”) and Eva Neymann (“When Lightning Flashes Over the Sea”). I don’t think any of them can beat “Andriivka” but “Grey Bees”, a drama about two pensioners living in the wartorn Donbass region, would have the best chance. Slava Ukraini! 

FINAL PREDICTIONS- "I'm Still Here" vs. Emilia Perez

 So, I'm late to post because I only was able to see plucky Brazilian historical drama "I'm Still Here" on Oscar afternoon. 

First of all, this year I managed to see 71 of the 89 announced films, which includes three of the disqualified entries. My personal favorite was Icelandic-Japanese romance "Touch" which managed to make the Top 15 but didn't get an Oscar nomination. Overall. the nominees this year are good.  "I'm Still Here" is "highbrow" and probably the most deserving of a win. "Emilia Perez" is a big mess but definitely the most original and the most entertaining. "Flow" is a beautiful work of art made on a shoestring budget. "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" is the brave "intellectual" choice with an incredible backstory worthy of its own film. And "The Girl with the Needle"? Not a bad film....but very much out of its league in this group. 

Ultimately, this is between France and Brazil. "Emilia Perez" was the favorite all year....but nobody seems to know why. Critical reviews are fine but a lot of people hate it and lead actress Karla Sofia Gascon's tweet controversy (which was way overblown if you ask me....Her tweets were a bit rude but she didn't say anything deserving of being canceled) sabotaged the film's momentum. Everybody who sees "I'm Still Here" falls in love with it. If it was in English, it might be a threat to win Best Picture. 

Since they changed the Oscar rules to benefit the "big" films, everyone has said that an International Film nominated for Best Picture and other categories will automatically win in this category. But this year "Emilia Perez" and "I'm Still Here" are both nominated for Best Picture....and other categories. That means that people who ordinarily would have lied about seeing all five films have now seen "Emilia" and "I'm Still Here". And that being the case, "I'm Still Here" should be able to win this easily....Most people are still predicting France....but I am not...and that should hand Brazil its first-ever Oscar in this category. 

FINAL PREDICTIONS

1. BRAZIL- "I'm Still Here" (61%)

2. FRANCE- "Emilia Perez" (35%)

3. LATVIA- "Flow" (3%)

4. GERMANY- "Seed of the Sacred Fig" (1%)

5. DENMARK- "Girl with the Needle" (0%)

I saw all 15 nominated short films too.....My predictions in these three niche categories:

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

1. A Lien (USA) (55%.....domestic politics will help this immigration thriller succeed) B+

2. Anuja (INDIA) (20%....the power of celebrity backers and Netflix could elevate this one....though it doesn't deserve it) B

3. I Am Not a Robot (NETHERLANDS) (10%....the only comedy....and by far the actual best film of the five nominated short) A

4. The Last Ranger (SOUTH AFRICA) (10%....weakest film of the five but has the predictable sentimentality that this category sometimes swoons for) C+

5. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (CROATIA) (5%) A chilling Balkan drama....but perhaps a bit too short to win Best Short) A-

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. I A Ready, Warden (45%.....By far the best film of the five) A

2. Incident (43%....The favorite....and most politically relevant) B+

3. The Only Girl in the Orchestra (10%.....Well-made Netflix drama) B+

4. Instruments of a Beating Heart (2%)

5. Death by Numbers (0%....Well done and courageous....and made by a student who survived the Parkland massacre....but not as accomplished as the other four) B

ANIMATED SHORT

These were pretty weak this year. The best one on the shortlist "Au Revoir mon monde" from France, didn't get nominated (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUScyWlkJg8) 

1. Wander to Wonder, (UNITED KINGDOM) (75%) A

2. Yuck! (FRANCE) (20%) B+

3. In the Shadow of the Cypress, (IRAN) (4%) B+

4. Beautiful Men, (BELGIUM) (1%) B

5. Magic Candies, (JAPAN) (0%) C

FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, I was waiting to write this until I found three hours in my schedule to go watch "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" at my local arthouse cinema....But I failed. Nevertheless, I've seen 11 of the 15 finalists, including all but one of the films "on the bubble" (Canada's "Universal Language"). So I feel pretty good about the ranking below. 

First off, I predicted 12 of the 15 finalists correctly....probably my best ever. But this is a hollow victory because the new Oscar rules now benefit the most-watched choices rather than the best. I missed "Santosh" (from the country with the second-largest number of AMPAS members) and "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" (a big word-of-mouth hit) but had them as alternates. I also predicted a snub for "Dahomey" because it's such a poor film...forgetting that that isn't important at all. 

Three films- Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig are widely seen as locks. It would be a huge shock if any of them missed on nomination morning. But those last two spots could honestly go to eight other films. I'm hoping that the two best- Touch and Kneecap- get those spots....But it's almost certain one or both will miss. 

Here are my predictions:

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1. BRAZIL, “I’m Still Here”

2. FRANCE, “Emilia Perez”

3. GERMANY, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

So, these three are the consensus favorites to make the next round so I don’t have too much to say. They’ve all been nominated at every major precursor (“Emilia Perez” missed at the Satellite Awards) and they’re being predicted by virtually everyone. A poll on Awardsdaily shows 94% support for all three. 

People who have seen all three films almost universally praise “I’m Still Here” as the Best Foreign Language Film of the year.....Cannes Jury Prize winner “Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a critical fave with a great backstory.....and “Emilia Perez” is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with the power of Netflix, a Golden Globe...and - perhaps most importantly- is a threat in a dozen other categories and is the clear favorite to win. If Fernanda Torres fails to get a Best Actress nomination, “Perez” will automatically be crowned the winner. 

Sadly, I’ve only been able to see “Emilia Perez”. I had so much fun watching it….but I’m shocked that it’s being nominated for so many awards. Gascon and Gomez are fine….but Oscar-worthy performances? Rather ridiculous. 

IN A STRONG POSITION:

4. IRELAND, “Kneecap”

5. ITALY, “Vermiglio”

6. ICELAND, “Touch”

The drug-fueled rapper comedy from Ireland - "Kneecap" - doesn't look like your usual Oscar nominee....But it has a number of advantages. First of all, it's one of the best films on the list, and it's a genuine crowdpleaser....though that didn't help "Les Intouchables" or "The Good Boss" make it beyond the shortlist. But it also got an early cinematic release in the USA, and has been buzzing ever since. Perhaps most importantly, it's hit most of the important precursors and exceeded expectations at the BAFTAs. It's probably in....unless voters don't have a sense of humor (which is possible). 

That leaves Italy's slow-moving village drama "Vermiglio" and Iceland's beautiful time-jumping romance "Touch" fighting (with three other films) for that final slot. "Touch", which tells the beautiful love story of a dying Icelandic man travelling the world amidst worsening COVID restrictions in an effort to meet his long-lost love. Co-star Masahiro Motoki helped Japan to a surprise Oscar nomination and even bigger surprise win for "Departures" and "Touch" will come close. But nobody seems to love the film quite as much as I do, so Italy has the clear advantage thanks to its European Film Award and Golden Globe nods. "Vermiglio" is a good film with some interesting twists and turns though it wouldn't be one of my Top 5. 

DARK HORSES:

7. DENMARK, “The Girl with the Needle”

8. LATVIA, “Flow”

9. THAILAND, “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies”

These three dark horses are in a virtually tie for sixth place. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of them announced on Oscar morning...and that would be a first for both Latvia and Thailand....so I'd be thrilled to see that happen. 

DENMARK is on the shortlist for the fifth year in a row (is that a record?) and "The Girl with the Needle" has been nominated almost everywhere alongside the three leaders. But after watching this weird Black and White horror-drama, I felt pretty sure this would miss an Oscar nomination. It just didn't seem good enough or "Oscary" enough to make it....but statistically, it should get that final slot. 

 LATVIA's "Flow" or, as the director called it, "our little cat movie", has been steadily moving up the rankings since its U.S. release. Initially, most people said it was a strong dark horse for the International Feature shortlist...but that it could never get nominated because voters would feel an Animated Feature nod would be sufficient to reward it.  That is still probably true....but voters and critics have been discovering and falling in love with "Flow" in big numbers since its domestic release in the USA, and especially since its Golden Globe win over "Wild Robot" in January. It could benefit from the one-week delay in Oscar voting....but will probably just miss out. 

THAILAND's heart-tugging soap opera "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" is about a slacker young man who moves in with his cancer-stricken grandmother in an effort to worm his way into her will. It's a sweet movie and I recommend you watch it. But Oscar has never gone for one of these sentimental Asian soap operas before. It's all very predictable....but it has some passionate fans and it would mean so much for Thai cinema....Unlikely but possible.   

PRAYING FOR A MIRACLE:

10. PALESTINE, “From Ground Zero”

11. CANADA, “Universal Language”

12. CZECH REPUBLIC, “Waves”

PALESTINE's stirring omnibus of 22 short films- "From Ground Zero"- is the only film that made the shortlist without the support of a sizeable international studio. Put together by senior Gazan filmmaker Rashid Masharawi from his current home base in Europe, "From Ground Zero" was somehow filmed by 22 amateur and independent Palestinian directors in Gaza in 2023 amidst bombings, electricity shortages and general violence and chaos. The films tell the stories (some fictional, some documentary-style) of ordinary people, of men and women and children and of Gaza itself. As such, much of the film is experimental and subject to filming conditions most directors could never dream of. One of the 22 films was left unfinished. While the film is unable to advance to the Top 5, it's appearance on the shortlist is nothing short of a miracle. 

I don't have too much to say about "Waves" from CZECH REPUBLIC, but its a solid historical drama based on the true story of Czechoslovakian journalists (many of whom were Communists themselves) trying to report on the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring. I felt this was a story best appreciated by the Czechs themselves and not really by international audiences. But critics love the film and in the 1980s this probably would have been a surefire nominee. Many Oscar prognosticators named this as the biggest surprise on the shortlist....so I just think it lacks the buzz and profile to make it to the next round. 

As for CANADA, the trailer for weird Persian-language comedy "Universal Language", set in an alternate universe (and Persian-speaking) Manitoba, looks charming. But its distributor is sitting on the film's release until next month so I haven't seen it. While it initially had a lot of buzz, this has faded and the film has oft been compared to Roy Andersson...one of my least-favorite international directors and one that Oscar has snubbed repeatedly. 

NO CHANCE:

13. NORWAY, “Armand”

14. UNITED KINGDOM, “Santosh”

15. SENEGAL, “Dahomey”

"Santosh" is a very good film! It deserves its slightly surprising spot on the shortlist. But this mystery--drama about misogyny and corruption in rural India has the least buzz of the 15 films on the list...and that matters a lot now. But it is interesting how "Santosh" managed to get Hindi-language cinema on the shortlist representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just emphasizing once again how stupid the Film Federation of India is for selecting "Laapataa Ladies" over potential winner "All We Imagine As Light". 

I haven't managed to see "Armand" from NORWAY....but it seems extremely divisive. I hear quite a few people say they love it....and even more who say they hate it. Of the four films I haven't seen ("Armand" plus "Sacred Fig", "Universal Language" and "I'm Still Here") it's the one I'm most curious to see. 

Finally, we have "Dahomey" from SENEGAL....Now, a documentary is not a good film just because it is about an important subject, or features interesting people. For a spare 70 minutes, French-Senegalese director Mati Diop films (1)- moving men packing up priceless African artifacts, (2)- a group of exceptionally articulate Beninois students debating art, colonialism, language and life in general, and (3)- a blank screen with a grating auto-tuned voiceover. I would love to have dinner with these students....but Berlin Golden Bear notwithstanding, you can't convince me that "Dahomey" is a good film or a good documentary. I don't think it will be nominated for either. 

I also managed to see all 15 of the shortlisted Animated Short finalists this year.....I only thought two were really Oscar-worthy. 

My predictions:

1. Wander to Wonder             (my #2)

2. Yuck! 

3. ME

4. A Crab in the Pool

5. A Bear Named Wojtek

6. Beautiful Men

7. Maybe Elephants

8. In the Shadow of the Cypress

9. Au Revoir, Mon Monde        (my personal favorite, and my winner)

10. Origami

11. The 21

12. Bottle George

13. Magic Candies

14. Wild-Tempered Clavier

15. Percebes

FINAL SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS

With the shortlist coming out in a few hours, here are my final predictions. 

I'm really crossing my fingers for the Netherlands and Romania but I'm pretty sure they can't both make it. Last year, I predicted Bulgaria and Ireland on the quality of the filmmaking forgetting the Oscar voters are often lazy and ignore the best films if nobody is talking about them and forcing them to watch their screeners. 

I predict Sweden and Senegal will be the big surprises. Sweden will make it and Senegal will (deservedly) be snubbed:

PREDICTED SHORTLIST- 

1. BRAZIL- I'm Still Here

2. GERMANY- The Seed of the Sacred Fig

3. FRANCE- Emilia Perez

4. DENMARK- The Girl with the Needle

5. IRELAND- Kneecap

6. ICELAND- Touch

7. ITALY- Vermiglio

8. NORWAY- Armand

9. LATVIA- Flow

10. SWEDEN- The Last Journey

11. CANADA- Universal Language

12. CZECH REPUBLIC- Waves

13. ROMANIA- Three Km. to the End of the World

14. CHILE- In Her Place

15. PALESTINE- From Ground Zero

STRONG ALTERNATES

16. NETHERLANDS- Memory Lane

17. UNITED KINGDOM- Santosh

18. THAILAND- How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

19. KENYA- Nawi

20. MEXICO- Sujo (it doesn't deserve it...but Mexico ALWAYS makes the shortlist)

21. SPAIN- Saturn Return

22. INDIA- Laapataa Ladies

23. MONGOLIA- If Only I Could Hibernate

LONG SHOTS

24. CAMBODIA- Rendezvous with Pol Pot

25. LEBANON- Arze

26. PORTUGAL- Grand Tour

27. COSTA RICA- Memories of a Burning Body

28. ISRAEL- Come Closer

29. GUATEMALA- Rita

30. HUNGARY- Semmelweis

31. MALAYSIA- Abang Adik

32. NEPAL- Shambhala

I’ll publish my precautions for the Middle East and Africa later today but in summary: 

Frontrunners: Palestine, Kenya 

Dark Horses: Lebanon, Israel, Senegal 

Middle of the Pack: Tunisia, Jordan (withdrawn), Turkey, Morocco 

Better Luck Next year: Iraq, Iran, South Africa, Algeria

No chance in hell: Egypt, Nigeria, Cameroon 

Oscar International Feature - Middle East and Africa (16 films)

 Placeholder.

Oscar International Feature - Western Europe (18 films)

I finally got to see "Vermiglio" last night at the EU Film Festival meaning that I've seen two-thirds of the group.....So, here is a rundown of the 18 films submitted from Western Europe, two days before the list is announced. Western Europe traditionally dominates the category, getting eight spots on the shortlist last year and seven the year before. This year, they may get even more....While I usually complain, the fact is that the films in this group are simply miles better than the rest of the world this year.  Iceland, Ireland and the Netherlands would be in my personal "Top 5", while France and Switzerland would be in my Top 15....and I haven't seen several of the frontrunners yet. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 18

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 20

Who’s Missing?:  LUXEMBOURG announced that they hadn’t received any eligible submissions, leaving them absent for the first time since 2012. As a fairly small country, this is clearly a fluke and they will almost certainly be back next year.  GREENLAND (population 60,000) is the smallest country ever to enter the Oscar competition and they haven’t sent a film since 2012.

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1.        GERMANY- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Letterboxd: 3.9)

2.        FRANCE - “Emilia Perez” (3.1)

Traditional Oscar powerhouses France and Germany are almost always on the shortlist (Germany has made it 7 of the past ten years) and these two films are as close as you can get to "locks". The critically acclaimed "Seed of the Sacred Fig" overcame its biggest hurdle when AMPAS confirmed it was eligible to represent Germany on a technicality. Iranian director Mohammad Rassoulof made the movie in Iran in complete secrecy and escaped to Germany where he got asylum. Family thriller "Sacred Fig" is one of the most acclaimed films of the year, with a backstory worthy of a movie itself and a Golden Globe nomination cemented its status as a surefire Oscar nominee. It's in. 

Getting to the shortlist requires people to see your movie and "Emilia Perez", a frontrunner in a slew of Oscar categories including Picture, acting, and directing, will be seen by more than any other. Its the Oscar frontrunner and even though I'm not certain it actually will win (there has been a serious critical backlash), it certainly won't have any trouble making it to the next round. 

FRONTRUNNERS:

These four countries shouldn't have too much trouble making the shortlist....though there's always one surprise snub....

   

3.   IRELAND- "Kneecap" (4.1)

4.   DENMARK- "The Girl with the Needle" (3.7)

5.  ITALY- "Vermiglio" (3.6)

6.   ICELAND- "Touch" (3.6)

So I've seen three of these four - Iceland, Ireland and Italy....

First of all, the Oscar campaigns for "Vermiglio" and "The Girl with the Needle" got a major boost when they were nominated for the Golden Globes in this category last week. No Golden Globe Foreign/International nominee that was submitted by its country has failed to make the Oscar shortlist since "Girl" in 2018. "The Girl with the Needle" also was a finalist for the NBR, beating out not only Iceland, Ireland and Italy for a spot, but also "Emilia Perez". 

Those two precursors are good news for DENMARK, which has been shortlisted (or better) 11 of the past 14 years....(possibly the best record in the world?). I've actually heard very mixed things about this B+W horror-tinged period drama about a suspicious adoption agency...but it's peaking at the right time, and winning awards and nominations in all the right places...plus Denmark almost never misses. It's probably safe. 

As I mentioned earlier, Iceland and Ireland are both in my own personal Top 5 and I'm really rooting for them both to make it. "Kneecap" is a raucous, drug-fueled, crowdpleaser comedy from IRELAND about a three-person Irish-language hip-hop trio who revolutionizes the indigenous language movement in Northern Ireland. The shortlist usually includes one genuine comedy ("Les intouchables", "Amerikatsi", etc.) and "Kneecap" looks the most likely to grab this spot. Critics reviews have been surprisingly warm for this decidedly less grim "Trainspotting" and its a genuinely well-made and wonderful film. "Touch", from ICELAND, is a gentle film about aging, lost loves and persistent memories as an elderly Icelandic man goes on an international quest for his long-lost Japanese love during the dark days of COVID travel restrictions in 2020. I don't want to reveal any plot details but the film deftly travels between countries, languages and time periods to tell a beautiful and satisfyingly complete story. While everyone seems to love the cheeky "Kneecap", I've definitely heard that not everyone loves "Touch" as much as I do. But both films were released early in the year, got U.S. cinematic and streaming releases to raise their profiles. And I expect to see both of them on the shortlist on Tuesday....but sadly probably not amongst on the Final Five. 

As for ITALY...."Vermiglio" is a cute little drama about a large family living in a small village in the freezing mountains of northern Italy circa 1944, in the waning days of World War II. A Sicilian deserter arrives in the village and falls in love with one of the daughters, which sets a number of events in motion. There are so many children in this family that it took me half the movie to keep them straight. But since the main plotline revolves around Lucia, the eldest, it was still fairly easy to follow. Do you remember those pleasant but forgettables dramas that got Oscar nominations in the 90s, like "The Other Side of Sunday"? "Vermiglio" is a little bit like that. Reviews have been mostly warm and the Golden Globe has helped solidify its status as a frontrunner...though it wouldn't be on my list.  

DARK HORSES:

  

7.   NORWAY- "Armand" (3.3)

8.    SWEDEN- "The Last Journey" (3.7)

9.   NETHERLANDS- "Memory Lane" (3.5)

10.  UNITED KINGDOM- "Santosh" (3.5)

In the past three years, the Western European films got 9 (2021), 7 (2022) and 8 (2023) of the 15 spots on the shortlist....So, the films in this group are definitely strong contenders.

I've seen "The Last Journey" and "Memory Lane" which, interestingly enough, have almost the same basic plot - a road trip from northern Europe through France in an ancient car with an elderly relative. In "Memory Lane" from THE NETHERLANDS, the film is a comedy-drama about a husband and wife, while "The Last Journey" from SWEDEN is a documentary about a father and son (and the son's best friend).  I adored "Memory Lane", which is a rare comedy that is very funny while at the same time heartbreakingly sad....It's such a difficult genre to get right but Jelle de Jong manages it effortlessly.  Maartje and Japp are the couple at the center of "Memory Lane". Crotchety Japp is exhausted from hiding his beloved wife's worsening dementia from friends and family but the two are forced to go on a road trip through France to Spain to visit a dying friend. In a year where so few films are "memorable", I can literally remember Maartje's facial expressions on a beach, and bits of Japp's final monologues. This is a situation that we all know cannot end happily, and growing old cannot be reversed. In "The Last Journey", a popular Swedish director is sad to see that his once vibrant father has become depressed and lethargic in retirement. He basically forces his father on a road trip to southern France where the family once spent their summers, to rekindle his love for life. I thought "Memory Lane" was a far superior film to "The Last Journey"....but oh my God, when I saw "The Last Journey" at a local festival, the audiences LOVED IT and the filmmakers have been on a tour in the U.S. to promote the film for Oscar consideration. This is clearly a film that resonates with a lot of people and it's the most likely to make the shortlist among the five submitted documentaries. I think "Last Journey" may be the surprise announcement on Tuesday. 

I haven't seen the other two films but "Santosh", representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just got a surprise National Board of Review mention alongside Brazil, Canada, Denmark and Germany (notably beating out France and Italy). This crime thriller is set in rural India where the widow of a police chief "inherits" his job in the community. An Oscar poll I'm part of currently has "Santosh" in 16th place, just barely missing out on the shortlist. And, as of today, that's what I think will happen.  It is great poetic justice for India to see "All We Imagine as Light" and "Santosh" winning awards and nominations while the fun but undeserving "Laapataa Ladies" goes unrewarded.

What I've heard about "Armand" from NORWAY is that its very, very divisive with many film-watching colleagues cryptically informing me that it can't be nominated because of "what happens". But this drama focused on politicking at an elementary school has gotten quite strong reviews and school politics is something this committee has often shown interest in ("Teachers Diary", "Monsieur Lazhar" and "Entre les murs" got Oscar nominations, but let's also remember the surprise shortlist spot for "Playground" three years ago). I'm trying to avoid reading too much about Norway until I see the film...but I'm predicting it makes the shortlist and fails to get nominated if it's that "divisive". 

LESS LIKELY:

  

11.   SPAIN- "Saturn Return" (Segundo premio) (3.6)

12.   PORTUGAL- "Grand Tour" (3.4)

13.  SWITZERLAND- "Reinas" (3.5)

14.   AUSTRIA- "The Devil's Bath" (3.5)

Let's start with the two films I have seen- Austria and Switzerland. 

If we were awarding films on their first and last ten minutes, period drama "The Devil's Bath" from AUSTRIA would be much higher on the list. This horror-drama from the team that brought us the creepy, disturbing "Goodnight Mommy" begins with a spooky, shocking and surprising murder,  promising the audience a rich drama suffused by occult themes and a haunting period atmosphere....And the film's ending matches that, and finishes with a bang. But...oh dear...."Devil's Bath" loses its way in the middle and it's a real slog to get through the second half. The film definitely gives you a lot to think about regarding depression and the status of women in medieval times....but I don't think viewers will have the patience...and horror is a difficult genre for the Oscars.

SWITZERLAND has sent one of the best films in the group - Family drama "Reinas" exceeded all of my expectations....but the film has no buzz and nobody is talking about it, which is fatal under the new rules. This quiet family drama is about a divorced couple living in Lima, Peru during the 1990s, when political violence and terrorism was taking place on a daily basis. The mother has primary custody of their two daughters (aged 10 and 16). Their father visits occasionally but the mother has successfully obtained a U.S. visa for her and the girls to move to the United States and start new lives...but Peruvian law requires that she have the father's permission to get their passports. The headstrong elder daughter plots to get the usually easygoing father not to sign, so she can stay with her friends. A farewell party practically turns the film into a thriller. I loved this film, which is actually a Peruvian film made by a director with dual Swiss-Peruvian citizenship, but I don't see it having a chance. But go see it if you can! 

I haven't seen the two Iberian films- "Saturn Return" and "Grand Tour". Several Spanish film aficionados have told me that music industry drama "Saturn Return" from SPAIN is a wonderful film....but only if you know or are interested in Las Planetas, the band on which it is based. So many people have told me that it is inscrutable if you don't know the source material....and very few Americans will know anything about this band. Having said that, it looks quite good and reviews from international reviewers like ScreenDaily and Variety were very positive. It's probably out of luck but "Saturn" could definitely surprise. Of the six films I haven't seen in this group, it's the only one without a U.S. distribution deal....so I'm not sure I'll be able to judge for myself.

And that leaves us with PORTUGAL. As we mention year and after, Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions without being nominated. Despite sending films almost every year since their 1980 Oscar debut, they've never even been shortlisted and I'm not sure they have ever even come close. A lot of people are predicting "Grand Tour" will finally break that streak....but I don't believe it. Set in 1917, the film is about a jilted bride who obsessively follows her diplomat fiance around Asia. Director Miguel Gomes won Best Director at Cannes, but I'm still angry at him for making me watch "Our Beloved Month of August", which was submitted by Portugal ten years ago and is probably the worst submission I've ever seen. In recent years, Portuguese submissions like "Vitalina Varela" and "The Metamorphosis of Birds" have been like watching paint dry. "Grand Tour" looks intriguing....Many people say it's a "travelogue" and I spent over a decade in Asia and look forward to rekindling memories of my own trips to Burma, Japan and Singapore. Reviews for "Grand Tour" are mostly positive, frequently calling the film "playful"....Cineuropa confirms the film is "easy to follow". I plan to see it Monday night (the night before the shortlist is announced). But I can't believe Gomes will be the one who will propel Portugal to lift its Oscar curse.   

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:

   

15.   BELGIUM- "Julie Keeps Quiet" (3.5)

16.   GREECE- "Murderess" (3.5)

17.   MALTA- "Castillo" (approx. 3.5)

18.   FINLAND- "Family Time" (3.4)

I've managed to see all four of these. 

Let's start with my favorite of the group- MALTA's trippy mystery "Castillo", which is the film version of a local stage play. For the first 30 minutes, I said to myself "This is all very interesting....but I haven't a clue what the hell is going on.....There is no way they can rein in this story to make any sense!....." But they do! "Castillo" is messy and confusing but (almost) everything is explained in the end and the film actually ends up making sense. But the film requires patience and a sense of humor and a willingness to accept the very theatrical style of the film, which is easily understandable when you learn that the same cast and crew produced the play on stage. The plot is difficult to explain but focuses on a young woman meeting her estranged mother twenty years after she walked out on the family in the middle of the night. 

FINLAND's "Family Time" is about a Finnish family reuniting for the Christmas holidays at their elderly parents' home in the countryside. The claustrophobic comedy-drama really does a good job at capturing the feeling of being trapped with relatives, and many of the family dynamics were instantly relatable to me...with a healthy dose of the Kaurismaki-esque Finnish sense of humor. But despite some occasionally charming moments, not much happens and the audience is unlikely to care about most of the characters...except perhaps Ella, the long-suffering matriarch and wife of grotesque alcoholic Lasse. 

Honestly, I was disappointed by BELGIUM's sports drama "Julie Keeps Quiet", which was billed as a reaction to the #MeToo movement. In the film, a driven young tennis player (Julie) and her tennis club learn that an ex-teammate has committed suicide, amidst rumors in the national news of abuse by their own tennis coach. The coach is immediately suspended but what kind of abuse took place? Did he do it? Did he do it to others? The film sets up some very interesting questions but the film is made in the style of the Brothers Dardennes (who are credited as producers) which means we spend most of the film watching Julie play tennis. The friend I saw it with liked the film more than I did but commented that he would have liked it more if "Julie hadn't been so fucking quiet". Julie is such a stoic and unemotional figure that it's difficult to care much about her plight. I don't expect this film to do very well, especially in such a competitive Western Euro group. 

Last, we have "Murderess" from GREECE, which was a fairly good film about a sketchy midwife in a traditional Greek village...but honestly I can barely remember a thing about it even though I saw it only a month ago. It's unlikely to make an impact on voters either. 

FUN FACTS:

Genres: France sent a musical, while Finland, Ireland and Netherlands (sort of) sent comedies. Sweden sent a documentary, Austria veers into horror territory, while the rest are straight dramas.

I’ve Already Seen:  I’ve seen twelve of the eighteen films- Austria (Amazon), Belgium, Finland, France (Netflix), Greece, Iceland (Amazon), Ireland (Amazon), Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland. I can see Portugal's film Monday night if I skip a holiday party. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Of the remaining six, definitely “Seed of the Sacred Fig”, representing Germany

Number I Predicted Correctly: Eight out of eighteen….but I clearly had some help from the European shortlists.

Big Four Festivals: 

The majority of these films played at a major festival, and most of those won important awards.

·        Berlin- Austria (Best Cinematography), Finland, Switzerland (K+ Jury Prize)

·        Cannes- Belgium, Denmark, France (Jury Prize and Best Actress), Germany (Jury Special Prize and FIPRESCI Award), Norway (Camera d’Or UCR), Portugal (Best Director), UK

·        Sundance-  Ireland (Audience Award)

·        Venice- Italy (Silver Lion)

Women Directors- There are seven women directors: Maura Delpero (Italy), Veronika Franz (Austria), Tia Kuovo (Finland), Abigail Mallia (Malta),  Eva Nathena (Greece), Klaudia Reynicke (Switzerland) and Sandhya Suri (UK)

Oldest and Youngest Directors-  Jacques Audiard (France) is 72 and Leonardo Van Dijl (Belgium) is 33.

Languages – Globetrotting European directors now make movies around the world – the submissions from France, Germany, Switzerland and the UK are not about their countries of origin (which would have been against the rules 15 years ago), while the films from Iceland, Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden have their characters negotiating language barriers on road trips.

Spanish is the dominant language this time around, with three films (France, Spain and Switzerland), with the other principal languages being Danish, Dutch, Finnish, French (Belgium), German (Austria), Greek, Hindi (UK), Irish Gaelic, Italian, Japanese (Iceland), Maltese, Norwegian, Persian (Germany), Portuguese and Swedish. The films from Iceland, Ireland, and Malta contain quite a bit of English, while Belgium and Portugal are quite multi-lingual.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- This is a strong year for the always-dominant Western Europeans. At least twelve definitely have a chance.

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Well…everyone has already been nominated except for Malta and Portugal…..So, I guess Portugal by default.

Buzziest Films: Obviously “Emilia Perez” is the 200-pound elephant….but “Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “Kneecap” are also doing well.  

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 13^th, 2024):      Best: Surprise!! It’s Ireland (4.1)….Worst: Surprise again! It’s alleged frontrunner France (3.1)

Dumbest Decision: I think everyone made pretty savvy decisions this year considering what they had eligible and I wouldn’t call anyone “dumb”…. I would have preferred to see “Sex” and “Crossing” representing Norway and Sweden respectively....but they both ended up choosing other very strong contenders.

Controversies and Changes: The biggest controversy of the year came from Greece.  The Greek Ministry of Culture sent out e-mails to a number of local filmmakers asking them to participate on the Greek Oscar selection committee. Shortly after, they said the email was sent "by mistake" and they selected a new committee, including at least one controversial figure in the Greek filmmaking community. The Greek Film Centre, which has been lobbying to select the Greek Oscar submission instead of the government ministry cried foul and all but one of the Greek candidate films withdrew in protest and a number of Greek filmmakers declared the process "tainted" and said that without a transparent process, no Greek film should go to the Oscars this year. A number of the new selection committee members then resigned in protest. But the Ministry of Culture sent "Murderess" anyway. Now, most of those 20-something films that withdrew had no chance of being picked. This year was widely seen as a contest between "Animal" (Locarno) and "Murderess" (Thessaloniki). "Murderess" was a worthy submission and the film I predicted would be sent all along. But there was definitely corruption happening at the Ministry and they should turn the process over to the Greek filmmaking community, which is more in line with other European countries.  

Germany's selection of banned Iranian film "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" was surprisingly uncontroversial. Though everyone agreed the film wasn't truly "German", it was accepted by Germans and by AMPAS in a symbolic move against the censorship and persecution of filmmakers in Iran. Director Mohammad Rasoulof obtained German residency so technically the film was under the creative control of "a resident of the country" per AMPAS rules. 

The race between "Emilia Perez" and "The Count of Monte Cristo" was the subject of a national debate in France, though both films were clearly worthy competitors.  

Oscar History: Competition is fierce in Western Europe, making it difficult for directors to be selected multiple times. Our only previous Oscar nominee is Jacques Audiard, who was nominated for “A Prophet”. Only three others have been here before:

Actor-director Baltasar Kormákur is representing Iceland for the fifth time following a long hiatus. “The Sea”, “Jar City”, “White Night Wedding” and “The Deep” were selected between 2002 and 2012.

Here for the third time: Portugal’s Miguel Gomes who previously competed with “Our Beloved Month of August” (possibly the worst Oscar submission I have seen from any country) and “Arabian Nights, Volume II”.

Here for the second time: Austria’s Veronika Franz Severin Fiala (“Goodnight Mommy”)

Of the 18 competing countries, ten have won the Oscar and six have been nominated. Malta (which has only competed twice before) and Portugal have never made it to the shortlist stage, although Malta’s “Luzzu” certainly deserved to.

Most Notable Omissions: 

   

"The Count of Monte Cristo" was a national blockbuster for France and the unofficial French runner-up (or was it "All We Imagine As Light"?), thus becoming the most notable omission from Western Europe this year. "Sex", from Norway and "Crossing" from Sweden, were also talked about as an early frontrunner for an Oscar nomination before losing to "Armand". Two films with Oscar pedigree "When the Light Breaks" (by Oscar nominee Runar Runarsson), "Parthenope" (by Oscar winner Paolo Sorrentino) also failed to make Round One. 

"On Becoming a Guinea Fowl" which some said was a "snub" by the UK was not...It was released on December 6, 2024 meaning it is eligible next year. 

Also not selected: "Amal" (Belgium), "The Blue Star" (Spain), "Dying" (Germany), "Marco" (Spain), "Misericordia" (France), "The Remarkable Life of Ibelin" (Norway), "Rickerl" (Austria), "Stormskerry Maja" (Finland) and "White Flash" (Netherlands)

Most Famous Face: It’s hard to have a more famous face than Selena Gomez, who co-stars as the confused American wife in “Emilia Perez” but Trine Dyrholm (“Girl with the Needle”), Edgar Ramirez and Zoe Saldana (also “Emilia Perez”) and Renate Reinsve (“Armand” should also be familiar.

Last Year's Race: I saw 15 of the 18 submissions last year. Though Western Europe got eight spots on the shortlist, my favorites- "Opponent" (A) from Sweden and "In the Shadow of Beirut" (A) from Ireland - somehow failed to make the cut. I also saw "The Last Ashes" (A-), "Sweet Dreams" (A-), "Teachers' Lounge" (A-),  "The Promised Land" (B+), "Behind the Haystacks" (B+), "Vera" (B+), "Fallen Leaves" (B), "Omen" (B-) "Godland" (C+), "Zone of Interest" (C+), "Thunder" (C), the surprisingly bad and dreadfully pretentious  "The Taste of Things" (D) and "Songs of Earth" (D-).

Though "Zone of Interest" won the Oscar, I was not a fan.