FINAL PREDICTIONS- "I'm Still Here" vs. Emilia Perez

 So, I'm late to post because I only was able to see plucky Brazilian historical drama "I'm Still Here" on Oscar afternoon. 

First of all, this year I managed to see 71 of the 89 announced films, which includes three of the disqualified entries. My personal favorite was Icelandic-Japanese romance "Touch" which managed to make the Top 15 but didn't get an Oscar nomination. Overall. the nominees this year are good.  "I'm Still Here" is "highbrow" and probably the most deserving of a win. "Emilia Perez" is a big mess but definitely the most original and the most entertaining. "Flow" is a beautiful work of art made on a shoestring budget. "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" is the brave "intellectual" choice with an incredible backstory worthy of its own film. And "The Girl with the Needle"? Not a bad film....but very much out of its league in this group. 

Ultimately, this is between France and Brazil. "Emilia Perez" was the favorite all year....but nobody seems to know why. Critical reviews are fine but a lot of people hate it and lead actress Karla Sofia Gascon's tweet controversy (which was way overblown if you ask me....Her tweets were a bit rude but she didn't say anything deserving of being canceled) sabotaged the film's momentum. Everybody who sees "I'm Still Here" falls in love with it. If it was in English, it might be a threat to win Best Picture. 

Since they changed the Oscar rules to benefit the "big" films, everyone has said that an International Film nominated for Best Picture and other categories will automatically win in this category. But this year "Emilia Perez" and "I'm Still Here" are both nominated for Best Picture....and other categories. That means that people who ordinarily would have lied about seeing all five films have now seen "Emilia" and "I'm Still Here". And that being the case, "I'm Still Here" should be able to win this easily....Most people are still predicting France....but I am not...and that should hand Brazil its first-ever Oscar in this category. 

FINAL PREDICTIONS

1. BRAZIL- "I'm Still Here" (61%)

2. FRANCE- "Emilia Perez" (35%)

3. LATVIA- "Flow" (3%)

4. GERMANY- "Seed of the Sacred Fig" (1%)

5. DENMARK- "Girl with the Needle" (0%)

I saw all 15 nominated short films too.....My predictions in these three niche categories:

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

1. A Lien (USA) (55%.....domestic politics will help this immigration thriller succeed) B+

2. Anuja (INDIA) (20%....the power of celebrity backers and Netflix could elevate this one....though it doesn't deserve it) B

3. I Am Not a Robot (NETHERLANDS) (10%....the only comedy....and by far the actual best film of the five nominated short) A

4. The Last Ranger (SOUTH AFRICA) (10%....weakest film of the five but has the predictable sentimentality that this category sometimes swoons for) C+

5. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (CROATIA) (5%) A chilling Balkan drama....but perhaps a bit too short to win Best Short) A-

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. I A Ready, Warden (45%.....By far the best film of the five) A

2. Incident (43%....The favorite....and most politically relevant) B+

3. The Only Girl in the Orchestra (10%.....Well-made Netflix drama) B+

4. Instruments of a Beating Heart (2%)

5. Death by Numbers (0%....Well done and courageous....and made by a student who survived the Parkland massacre....but not as accomplished as the other four) B

ANIMATED SHORT

These were pretty weak this year. The best one on the shortlist "Au Revoir mon monde" from France, didn't get nominated (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUScyWlkJg8) 

1. Wander to Wonder, (UNITED KINGDOM) (75%) A

2. Yuck! (FRANCE) (20%) B+

3. In the Shadow of the Cypress, (IRAN) (4%) B+

4. Beautiful Men, (BELGIUM) (1%) B

5. Magic Candies, (JAPAN) (0%) C

FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, I was waiting to write this until I found three hours in my schedule to go watch "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" at my local arthouse cinema....But I failed. Nevertheless, I've seen 11 of the 15 finalists, including all but one of the films "on the bubble" (Canada's "Universal Language"). So I feel pretty good about the ranking below. 

First off, I predicted 12 of the 15 finalists correctly....probably my best ever. But this is a hollow victory because the new Oscar rules now benefit the most-watched choices rather than the best. I missed "Santosh" (from the country with the second-largest number of AMPAS members) and "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" (a big word-of-mouth hit) but had them as alternates. I also predicted a snub for "Dahomey" because it's such a poor film...forgetting that that isn't important at all. 

Three films- Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig are widely seen as locks. It would be a huge shock if any of them missed on nomination morning. But those last two spots could honestly go to eight other films. I'm hoping that the two best- Touch and Kneecap- get those spots....But it's almost certain one or both will miss. 

Here are my predictions:

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1. BRAZIL, “I’m Still Here”

2. FRANCE, “Emilia Perez”

3. GERMANY, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

So, these three are the consensus favorites to make the next round so I don’t have too much to say. They’ve all been nominated at every major precursor (“Emilia Perez” missed at the Satellite Awards) and they’re being predicted by virtually everyone. A poll on Awardsdaily shows 94% support for all three. 

People who have seen all three films almost universally praise “I’m Still Here” as the Best Foreign Language Film of the year.....Cannes Jury Prize winner “Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a critical fave with a great backstory.....and “Emilia Perez” is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with the power of Netflix, a Golden Globe...and - perhaps most importantly- is a threat in a dozen other categories and is the clear favorite to win. If Fernanda Torres fails to get a Best Actress nomination, “Perez” will automatically be crowned the winner. 

Sadly, I’ve only been able to see “Emilia Perez”. I had so much fun watching it….but I’m shocked that it’s being nominated for so many awards. Gascon and Gomez are fine….but Oscar-worthy performances? Rather ridiculous. 

IN A STRONG POSITION:

4. IRELAND, “Kneecap”

5. ITALY, “Vermiglio”

6. ICELAND, “Touch”

The drug-fueled rapper comedy from Ireland - "Kneecap" - doesn't look like your usual Oscar nominee....But it has a number of advantages. First of all, it's one of the best films on the list, and it's a genuine crowdpleaser....though that didn't help "Les Intouchables" or "The Good Boss" make it beyond the shortlist. But it also got an early cinematic release in the USA, and has been buzzing ever since. Perhaps most importantly, it's hit most of the important precursors and exceeded expectations at the BAFTAs. It's probably in....unless voters don't have a sense of humor (which is possible). 

That leaves Italy's slow-moving village drama "Vermiglio" and Iceland's beautiful time-jumping romance "Touch" fighting (with three other films) for that final slot. "Touch", which tells the beautiful love story of a dying Icelandic man travelling the world amidst worsening COVID restrictions in an effort to meet his long-lost love. Co-star Masahiro Motoki helped Japan to a surprise Oscar nomination and even bigger surprise win for "Departures" and "Touch" will come close. But nobody seems to love the film quite as much as I do, so Italy has the clear advantage thanks to its European Film Award and Golden Globe nods. "Vermiglio" is a good film with some interesting twists and turns though it wouldn't be one of my Top 5. 

DARK HORSES:

7. DENMARK, “The Girl with the Needle”

8. LATVIA, “Flow”

9. THAILAND, “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies”

These three dark horses are in a virtually tie for sixth place. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of them announced on Oscar morning...and that would be a first for both Latvia and Thailand....so I'd be thrilled to see that happen. 

DENMARK is on the shortlist for the fifth year in a row (is that a record?) and "The Girl with the Needle" has been nominated almost everywhere alongside the three leaders. But after watching this weird Black and White horror-drama, I felt pretty sure this would miss an Oscar nomination. It just didn't seem good enough or "Oscary" enough to make it....but statistically, it should get that final slot. 

 LATVIA's "Flow" or, as the director called it, "our little cat movie", has been steadily moving up the rankings since its U.S. release. Initially, most people said it was a strong dark horse for the International Feature shortlist...but that it could never get nominated because voters would feel an Animated Feature nod would be sufficient to reward it.  That is still probably true....but voters and critics have been discovering and falling in love with "Flow" in big numbers since its domestic release in the USA, and especially since its Golden Globe win over "Wild Robot" in January. It could benefit from the one-week delay in Oscar voting....but will probably just miss out. 

THAILAND's heart-tugging soap opera "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" is about a slacker young man who moves in with his cancer-stricken grandmother in an effort to worm his way into her will. It's a sweet movie and I recommend you watch it. But Oscar has never gone for one of these sentimental Asian soap operas before. It's all very predictable....but it has some passionate fans and it would mean so much for Thai cinema....Unlikely but possible.   

PRAYING FOR A MIRACLE:

10. PALESTINE, “From Ground Zero”

11. CANADA, “Universal Language”

12. CZECH REPUBLIC, “Waves”

PALESTINE's stirring omnibus of 22 short films- "From Ground Zero"- is the only film that made the shortlist without the support of a sizeable international studio. Put together by senior Gazan filmmaker Rashid Masharawi from his current home base in Europe, "From Ground Zero" was somehow filmed by 22 amateur and independent Palestinian directors in Gaza in 2023 amidst bombings, electricity shortages and general violence and chaos. The films tell the stories (some fictional, some documentary-style) of ordinary people, of men and women and children and of Gaza itself. As such, much of the film is experimental and subject to filming conditions most directors could never dream of. One of the 22 films was left unfinished. While the film is unable to advance to the Top 5, it's appearance on the shortlist is nothing short of a miracle. 

I don't have too much to say about "Waves" from CZECH REPUBLIC, but its a solid historical drama based on the true story of Czechoslovakian journalists (many of whom were Communists themselves) trying to report on the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring. I felt this was a story best appreciated by the Czechs themselves and not really by international audiences. But critics love the film and in the 1980s this probably would have been a surefire nominee. Many Oscar prognosticators named this as the biggest surprise on the shortlist....so I just think it lacks the buzz and profile to make it to the next round. 

As for CANADA, the trailer for weird Persian-language comedy "Universal Language", set in an alternate universe (and Persian-speaking) Manitoba, looks charming. But its distributor is sitting on the film's release until next month so I haven't seen it. While it initially had a lot of buzz, this has faded and the film has oft been compared to Roy Andersson...one of my least-favorite international directors and one that Oscar has snubbed repeatedly. 

NO CHANCE:

13. NORWAY, “Armand”

14. UNITED KINGDOM, “Santosh”

15. SENEGAL, “Dahomey”

"Santosh" is a very good film! It deserves its slightly surprising spot on the shortlist. But this mystery--drama about misogyny and corruption in rural India has the least buzz of the 15 films on the list...and that matters a lot now. But it is interesting how "Santosh" managed to get Hindi-language cinema on the shortlist representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just emphasizing once again how stupid the Film Federation of India is for selecting "Laapataa Ladies" over potential winner "All We Imagine As Light". 

I haven't managed to see "Armand" from NORWAY....but it seems extremely divisive. I hear quite a few people say they love it....and even more who say they hate it. Of the four films I haven't seen ("Armand" plus "Sacred Fig", "Universal Language" and "I'm Still Here") it's the one I'm most curious to see. 

Finally, we have "Dahomey" from SENEGAL....Now, a documentary is not a good film just because it is about an important subject, or features interesting people. For a spare 70 minutes, French-Senegalese director Mati Diop films (1)- moving men packing up priceless African artifacts, (2)- a group of exceptionally articulate Beninois students debating art, colonialism, language and life in general, and (3)- a blank screen with a grating auto-tuned voiceover. I would love to have dinner with these students....but Berlin Golden Bear notwithstanding, you can't convince me that "Dahomey" is a good film or a good documentary. I don't think it will be nominated for either. 

I also managed to see all 15 of the shortlisted Animated Short finalists this year.....I only thought two were really Oscar-worthy. 

My predictions:

1. Wander to Wonder             (my #2)

2. Yuck! 

3. ME

4. A Crab in the Pool

5. A Bear Named Wojtek

6. Beautiful Men

7. Maybe Elephants

8. In the Shadow of the Cypress

9. Au Revoir, Mon Monde        (my personal favorite, and my winner)

10. Origami

11. The 21

12. Bottle George

13. Magic Candies

14. Wild-Tempered Clavier

15. Percebes

FINAL SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS

With the shortlist coming out in a few hours, here are my final predictions. 

I'm really crossing my fingers for the Netherlands and Romania but I'm pretty sure they can't both make it. Last year, I predicted Bulgaria and Ireland on the quality of the filmmaking forgetting the Oscar voters are often lazy and ignore the best films if nobody is talking about them and forcing them to watch their screeners. 

I predict Sweden and Senegal will be the big surprises. Sweden will make it and Senegal will (deservedly) be snubbed:

PREDICTED SHORTLIST- 

1. BRAZIL- I'm Still Here

2. GERMANY- The Seed of the Sacred Fig

3. FRANCE- Emilia Perez

4. DENMARK- The Girl with the Needle

5. IRELAND- Kneecap

6. ICELAND- Touch

7. ITALY- Vermiglio

8. NORWAY- Armand

9. LATVIA- Flow

10. SWEDEN- The Last Journey

11. CANADA- Universal Language

12. CZECH REPUBLIC- Waves

13. ROMANIA- Three Km. to the End of the World

14. CHILE- In Her Place

15. PALESTINE- From Ground Zero

STRONG ALTERNATES

16. NETHERLANDS- Memory Lane

17. UNITED KINGDOM- Santosh

18. THAILAND- How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

19. KENYA- Nawi

20. MEXICO- Sujo (it doesn't deserve it...but Mexico ALWAYS makes the shortlist)

21. SPAIN- Saturn Return

22. INDIA- Laapataa Ladies

23. MONGOLIA- If Only I Could Hibernate

LONG SHOTS

24. CAMBODIA- Rendezvous with Pol Pot

25. LEBANON- Arze

26. PORTUGAL- Grand Tour

27. COSTA RICA- Memories of a Burning Body

28. ISRAEL- Come Closer

29. GUATEMALA- Rita

30. HUNGARY- Semmelweis

31. MALAYSIA- Abang Adik

32. NEPAL- Shambhala

I’ll publish my precautions for the Middle East and Africa later today but in summary: 

Frontrunners: Palestine, Kenya 

Dark Horses: Lebanon, Israel, Senegal 

Middle of the Pack: Tunisia, Jordan (withdrawn), Turkey, Morocco 

Better Luck Next year: Iraq, Iran, South Africa, Algeria

No chance in hell: Egypt, Nigeria, Cameroon 

Oscar International Feature - Middle East and Africa (16 films)

 Placeholder.

Oscar International Feature - Western Europe (18 films)

I finally got to see "Vermiglio" last night at the EU Film Festival meaning that I've seen two-thirds of the group.....So, here is a rundown of the 18 films submitted from Western Europe, two days before the list is announced. Western Europe traditionally dominates the category, getting eight spots on the shortlist last year and seven the year before. This year, they may get even more....While I usually complain, the fact is that the films in this group are simply miles better than the rest of the world this year.  Iceland, Ireland and the Netherlands would be in my personal "Top 5", while France and Switzerland would be in my Top 15....and I haven't seen several of the frontrunners yet. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 18

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 20

Who’s Missing?:  LUXEMBOURG announced that they hadn’t received any eligible submissions, leaving them absent for the first time since 2012. As a fairly small country, this is clearly a fluke and they will almost certainly be back next year.  GREENLAND (population 60,000) is the smallest country ever to enter the Oscar competition and they haven’t sent a film since 2012.

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1.        GERMANY- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Letterboxd: 3.9)

2.        FRANCE - “Emilia Perez” (3.1)

Traditional Oscar powerhouses France and Germany are almost always on the shortlist (Germany has made it 7 of the past ten years) and these two films are as close as you can get to "locks". The critically acclaimed "Seed of the Sacred Fig" overcame its biggest hurdle when AMPAS confirmed it was eligible to represent Germany on a technicality. Iranian director Mohammad Rassoulof made the movie in Iran in complete secrecy and escaped to Germany where he got asylum. Family thriller "Sacred Fig" is one of the most acclaimed films of the year, with a backstory worthy of a movie itself and a Golden Globe nomination cemented its status as a surefire Oscar nominee. It's in. 

Getting to the shortlist requires people to see your movie and "Emilia Perez", a frontrunner in a slew of Oscar categories including Picture, acting, and directing, will be seen by more than any other. Its the Oscar frontrunner and even though I'm not certain it actually will win (there has been a serious critical backlash), it certainly won't have any trouble making it to the next round. 

FRONTRUNNERS:

These four countries shouldn't have too much trouble making the shortlist....though there's always one surprise snub....

   

3.   IRELAND- "Kneecap" (4.1)

4.   DENMARK- "The Girl with the Needle" (3.7)

5.  ITALY- "Vermiglio" (3.6)

6.   ICELAND- "Touch" (3.6)

So I've seen three of these four - Iceland, Ireland and Italy....

First of all, the Oscar campaigns for "Vermiglio" and "The Girl with the Needle" got a major boost when they were nominated for the Golden Globes in this category last week. No Golden Globe Foreign/International nominee that was submitted by its country has failed to make the Oscar shortlist since "Girl" in 2018. "The Girl with the Needle" also was a finalist for the NBR, beating out not only Iceland, Ireland and Italy for a spot, but also "Emilia Perez". 

Those two precursors are good news for DENMARK, which has been shortlisted (or better) 11 of the past 14 years....(possibly the best record in the world?). I've actually heard very mixed things about this B+W horror-tinged period drama about a suspicious adoption agency...but it's peaking at the right time, and winning awards and nominations in all the right places...plus Denmark almost never misses. It's probably safe. 

As I mentioned earlier, Iceland and Ireland are both in my own personal Top 5 and I'm really rooting for them both to make it. "Kneecap" is a raucous, drug-fueled, crowdpleaser comedy from IRELAND about a three-person Irish-language hip-hop trio who revolutionizes the indigenous language movement in Northern Ireland. The shortlist usually includes one genuine comedy ("Les intouchables", "Amerikatsi", etc.) and "Kneecap" looks the most likely to grab this spot. Critics reviews have been surprisingly warm for this decidedly less grim "Trainspotting" and its a genuinely well-made and wonderful film. "Touch", from ICELAND, is a gentle film about aging, lost loves and persistent memories as an elderly Icelandic man goes on an international quest for his long-lost Japanese love during the dark days of COVID travel restrictions in 2020. I don't want to reveal any plot details but the film deftly travels between countries, languages and time periods to tell a beautiful and satisfyingly complete story. While everyone seems to love the cheeky "Kneecap", I've definitely heard that not everyone loves "Touch" as much as I do. But both films were released early in the year, got U.S. cinematic and streaming releases to raise their profiles. And I expect to see both of them on the shortlist on Tuesday....but sadly probably not amongst on the Final Five. 

As for ITALY...."Vermiglio" is a cute little drama about a large family living in a small village in the freezing mountains of northern Italy circa 1944, in the waning days of World War II. A Sicilian deserter arrives in the village and falls in love with one of the daughters, which sets a number of events in motion. There are so many children in this family that it took me half the movie to keep them straight. But since the main plotline revolves around Lucia, the eldest, it was still fairly easy to follow. Do you remember those pleasant but forgettables dramas that got Oscar nominations in the 90s, like "The Other Side of Sunday"? "Vermiglio" is a little bit like that. Reviews have been mostly warm and the Golden Globe has helped solidify its status as a frontrunner...though it wouldn't be on my list.  

DARK HORSES:

  

7.   NORWAY- "Armand" (3.3)

8.    SWEDEN- "The Last Journey" (3.7)

9.   NETHERLANDS- "Memory Lane" (3.5)

10.  UNITED KINGDOM- "Santosh" (3.5)

In the past three years, the Western European films got 9 (2021), 7 (2022) and 8 (2023) of the 15 spots on the shortlist....So, the films in this group are definitely strong contenders.

I've seen "The Last Journey" and "Memory Lane" which, interestingly enough, have almost the same basic plot - a road trip from northern Europe through France in an ancient car with an elderly relative. In "Memory Lane" from THE NETHERLANDS, the film is a comedy-drama about a husband and wife, while "The Last Journey" from SWEDEN is a documentary about a father and son (and the son's best friend).  I adored "Memory Lane", which is a rare comedy that is very funny while at the same time heartbreakingly sad....It's such a difficult genre to get right but Jelle de Jong manages it effortlessly.  Maartje and Japp are the couple at the center of "Memory Lane". Crotchety Japp is exhausted from hiding his beloved wife's worsening dementia from friends and family but the two are forced to go on a road trip through France to Spain to visit a dying friend. In a year where so few films are "memorable", I can literally remember Maartje's facial expressions on a beach, and bits of Japp's final monologues. This is a situation that we all know cannot end happily, and growing old cannot be reversed. In "The Last Journey", a popular Swedish director is sad to see that his once vibrant father has become depressed and lethargic in retirement. He basically forces his father on a road trip to southern France where the family once spent their summers, to rekindle his love for life. I thought "Memory Lane" was a far superior film to "The Last Journey"....but oh my God, when I saw "The Last Journey" at a local festival, the audiences LOVED IT and the filmmakers have been on a tour in the U.S. to promote the film for Oscar consideration. This is clearly a film that resonates with a lot of people and it's the most likely to make the shortlist among the five submitted documentaries. I think "Last Journey" may be the surprise announcement on Tuesday. 

I haven't seen the other two films but "Santosh", representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just got a surprise National Board of Review mention alongside Brazil, Canada, Denmark and Germany (notably beating out France and Italy). This crime thriller is set in rural India where the widow of a police chief "inherits" his job in the community. An Oscar poll I'm part of currently has "Santosh" in 16th place, just barely missing out on the shortlist. And, as of today, that's what I think will happen.  It is great poetic justice for India to see "All We Imagine as Light" and "Santosh" winning awards and nominations while the fun but undeserving "Laapataa Ladies" goes unrewarded.

What I've heard about "Armand" from NORWAY is that its very, very divisive with many film-watching colleagues cryptically informing me that it can't be nominated because of "what happens". But this drama focused on politicking at an elementary school has gotten quite strong reviews and school politics is something this committee has often shown interest in ("Teachers Diary", "Monsieur Lazhar" and "Entre les murs" got Oscar nominations, but let's also remember the surprise shortlist spot for "Playground" three years ago). I'm trying to avoid reading too much about Norway until I see the film...but I'm predicting it makes the shortlist and fails to get nominated if it's that "divisive". 

LESS LIKELY:

  

11.   SPAIN- "Saturn Return" (Segundo premio) (3.6)

12.   PORTUGAL- "Grand Tour" (3.4)

13.  SWITZERLAND- "Reinas" (3.5)

14.   AUSTRIA- "The Devil's Bath" (3.5)

Let's start with the two films I have seen- Austria and Switzerland. 

If we were awarding films on their first and last ten minutes, period drama "The Devil's Bath" from AUSTRIA would be much higher on the list. This horror-drama from the team that brought us the creepy, disturbing "Goodnight Mommy" begins with a spooky, shocking and surprising murder,  promising the audience a rich drama suffused by occult themes and a haunting period atmosphere....And the film's ending matches that, and finishes with a bang. But...oh dear...."Devil's Bath" loses its way in the middle and it's a real slog to get through the second half. The film definitely gives you a lot to think about regarding depression and the status of women in medieval times....but I don't think viewers will have the patience...and horror is a difficult genre for the Oscars.

SWITZERLAND has sent one of the best films in the group - Family drama "Reinas" exceeded all of my expectations....but the film has no buzz and nobody is talking about it, which is fatal under the new rules. This quiet family drama is about a divorced couple living in Lima, Peru during the 1990s, when political violence and terrorism was taking place on a daily basis. The mother has primary custody of their two daughters (aged 10 and 16). Their father visits occasionally but the mother has successfully obtained a U.S. visa for her and the girls to move to the United States and start new lives...but Peruvian law requires that she have the father's permission to get their passports. The headstrong elder daughter plots to get the usually easygoing father not to sign, so she can stay with her friends. A farewell party practically turns the film into a thriller. I loved this film, which is actually a Peruvian film made by a director with dual Swiss-Peruvian citizenship, but I don't see it having a chance. But go see it if you can! 

I haven't seen the two Iberian films- "Saturn Return" and "Grand Tour". Several Spanish film aficionados have told me that music industry drama "Saturn Return" from SPAIN is a wonderful film....but only if you know or are interested in Las Planetas, the band on which it is based. So many people have told me that it is inscrutable if you don't know the source material....and very few Americans will know anything about this band. Having said that, it looks quite good and reviews from international reviewers like ScreenDaily and Variety were very positive. It's probably out of luck but "Saturn" could definitely surprise. Of the six films I haven't seen in this group, it's the only one without a U.S. distribution deal....so I'm not sure I'll be able to judge for myself.

And that leaves us with PORTUGAL. As we mention year and after, Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions without being nominated. Despite sending films almost every year since their 1980 Oscar debut, they've never even been shortlisted and I'm not sure they have ever even come close. A lot of people are predicting "Grand Tour" will finally break that streak....but I don't believe it. Set in 1917, the film is about a jilted bride who obsessively follows her diplomat fiance around Asia. Director Miguel Gomes won Best Director at Cannes, but I'm still angry at him for making me watch "Our Beloved Month of August", which was submitted by Portugal ten years ago and is probably the worst submission I've ever seen. In recent years, Portuguese submissions like "Vitalina Varela" and "The Metamorphosis of Birds" have been like watching paint dry. "Grand Tour" looks intriguing....Many people say it's a "travelogue" and I spent over a decade in Asia and look forward to rekindling memories of my own trips to Burma, Japan and Singapore. Reviews for "Grand Tour" are mostly positive, frequently calling the film "playful"....Cineuropa confirms the film is "easy to follow". I plan to see it Monday night (the night before the shortlist is announced). But I can't believe Gomes will be the one who will propel Portugal to lift its Oscar curse.   

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:

   

15.   BELGIUM- "Julie Keeps Quiet" (3.5)

16.   GREECE- "Murderess" (3.5)

17.   MALTA- "Castillo" (approx. 3.5)

18.   FINLAND- "Family Time" (3.4)

I've managed to see all four of these. 

Let's start with my favorite of the group- MALTA's trippy mystery "Castillo", which is the film version of a local stage play. For the first 30 minutes, I said to myself "This is all very interesting....but I haven't a clue what the hell is going on.....There is no way they can rein in this story to make any sense!....." But they do! "Castillo" is messy and confusing but (almost) everything is explained in the end and the film actually ends up making sense. But the film requires patience and a sense of humor and a willingness to accept the very theatrical style of the film, which is easily understandable when you learn that the same cast and crew produced the play on stage. The plot is difficult to explain but focuses on a young woman meeting her estranged mother twenty years after she walked out on the family in the middle of the night. 

FINLAND's "Family Time" is about a Finnish family reuniting for the Christmas holidays at their elderly parents' home in the countryside. The claustrophobic comedy-drama really does a good job at capturing the feeling of being trapped with relatives, and many of the family dynamics were instantly relatable to me...with a healthy dose of the Kaurismaki-esque Finnish sense of humor. But despite some occasionally charming moments, not much happens and the audience is unlikely to care about most of the characters...except perhaps Ella, the long-suffering matriarch and wife of grotesque alcoholic Lasse. 

Honestly, I was disappointed by BELGIUM's sports drama "Julie Keeps Quiet", which was billed as a reaction to the #MeToo movement. In the film, a driven young tennis player (Julie) and her tennis club learn that an ex-teammate has committed suicide, amidst rumors in the national news of abuse by their own tennis coach. The coach is immediately suspended but what kind of abuse took place? Did he do it? Did he do it to others? The film sets up some very interesting questions but the film is made in the style of the Brothers Dardennes (who are credited as producers) which means we spend most of the film watching Julie play tennis. The friend I saw it with liked the film more than I did but commented that he would have liked it more if "Julie hadn't been so fucking quiet". Julie is such a stoic and unemotional figure that it's difficult to care much about her plight. I don't expect this film to do very well, especially in such a competitive Western Euro group. 

Last, we have "Murderess" from GREECE, which was a fairly good film about a sketchy midwife in a traditional Greek village...but honestly I can barely remember a thing about it even though I saw it only a month ago. It's unlikely to make an impact on voters either. 

FUN FACTS:

Genres: France sent a musical, while Finland, Ireland and Netherlands (sort of) sent comedies. Sweden sent a documentary, Austria veers into horror territory, while the rest are straight dramas.

I’ve Already Seen:  I’ve seen twelve of the eighteen films- Austria (Amazon), Belgium, Finland, France (Netflix), Greece, Iceland (Amazon), Ireland (Amazon), Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland. I can see Portugal's film Monday night if I skip a holiday party. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Of the remaining six, definitely “Seed of the Sacred Fig”, representing Germany

Number I Predicted Correctly: Eight out of eighteen….but I clearly had some help from the European shortlists.

Big Four Festivals: 

The majority of these films played at a major festival, and most of those won important awards.

·        Berlin- Austria (Best Cinematography), Finland, Switzerland (K+ Jury Prize)

·        Cannes- Belgium, Denmark, France (Jury Prize and Best Actress), Germany (Jury Special Prize and FIPRESCI Award), Norway (Camera d’Or UCR), Portugal (Best Director), UK

·        Sundance-  Ireland (Audience Award)

·        Venice- Italy (Silver Lion)

Women Directors- There are seven women directors: Maura Delpero (Italy), Veronika Franz (Austria), Tia Kuovo (Finland), Abigail Mallia (Malta),  Eva Nathena (Greece), Klaudia Reynicke (Switzerland) and Sandhya Suri (UK)

Oldest and Youngest Directors-  Jacques Audiard (France) is 72 and Leonardo Van Dijl (Belgium) is 33.

Languages – Globetrotting European directors now make movies around the world – the submissions from France, Germany, Switzerland and the UK are not about their countries of origin (which would have been against the rules 15 years ago), while the films from Iceland, Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden have their characters negotiating language barriers on road trips.

Spanish is the dominant language this time around, with three films (France, Spain and Switzerland), with the other principal languages being Danish, Dutch, Finnish, French (Belgium), German (Austria), Greek, Hindi (UK), Irish Gaelic, Italian, Japanese (Iceland), Maltese, Norwegian, Persian (Germany), Portuguese and Swedish. The films from Iceland, Ireland, and Malta contain quite a bit of English, while Belgium and Portugal are quite multi-lingual.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- This is a strong year for the always-dominant Western Europeans. At least twelve definitely have a chance.

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Well…everyone has already been nominated except for Malta and Portugal…..So, I guess Portugal by default.

Buzziest Films: Obviously “Emilia Perez” is the 200-pound elephant….but “Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “Kneecap” are also doing well.  

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 13^th, 2024):      Best: Surprise!! It’s Ireland (4.1)….Worst: Surprise again! It’s alleged frontrunner France (3.1)

Dumbest Decision: I think everyone made pretty savvy decisions this year considering what they had eligible and I wouldn’t call anyone “dumb”…. I would have preferred to see “Sex” and “Crossing” representing Norway and Sweden respectively....but they both ended up choosing other very strong contenders.

Controversies and Changes: The biggest controversy of the year came from Greece.  The Greek Ministry of Culture sent out e-mails to a number of local filmmakers asking them to participate on the Greek Oscar selection committee. Shortly after, they said the email was sent "by mistake" and they selected a new committee, including at least one controversial figure in the Greek filmmaking community. The Greek Film Centre, which has been lobbying to select the Greek Oscar submission instead of the government ministry cried foul and all but one of the Greek candidate films withdrew in protest and a number of Greek filmmakers declared the process "tainted" and said that without a transparent process, no Greek film should go to the Oscars this year. A number of the new selection committee members then resigned in protest. But the Ministry of Culture sent "Murderess" anyway. Now, most of those 20-something films that withdrew had no chance of being picked. This year was widely seen as a contest between "Animal" (Locarno) and "Murderess" (Thessaloniki). "Murderess" was a worthy submission and the film I predicted would be sent all along. But there was definitely corruption happening at the Ministry and they should turn the process over to the Greek filmmaking community, which is more in line with other European countries.  

Germany's selection of banned Iranian film "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" was surprisingly uncontroversial. Though everyone agreed the film wasn't truly "German", it was accepted by Germans and by AMPAS in a symbolic move against the censorship and persecution of filmmakers in Iran. Director Mohammad Rasoulof obtained German residency so technically the film was under the creative control of "a resident of the country" per AMPAS rules. 

The race between "Emilia Perez" and "The Count of Monte Cristo" was the subject of a national debate in France, though both films were clearly worthy competitors.  

Oscar History: Competition is fierce in Western Europe, making it difficult for directors to be selected multiple times. Our only previous Oscar nominee is Jacques Audiard, who was nominated for “A Prophet”. Only three others have been here before:

Actor-director Baltasar Kormákur is representing Iceland for the fifth time following a long hiatus. “The Sea”, “Jar City”, “White Night Wedding” and “The Deep” were selected between 2002 and 2012.

Here for the third time: Portugal’s Miguel Gomes who previously competed with “Our Beloved Month of August” (possibly the worst Oscar submission I have seen from any country) and “Arabian Nights, Volume II”.

Here for the second time: Austria’s Veronika Franz Severin Fiala (“Goodnight Mommy”)

Of the 18 competing countries, ten have won the Oscar and six have been nominated. Malta (which has only competed twice before) and Portugal have never made it to the shortlist stage, although Malta’s “Luzzu” certainly deserved to.

Most Notable Omissions: 

   

"The Count of Monte Cristo" was a national blockbuster for France and the unofficial French runner-up (or was it "All We Imagine As Light"?), thus becoming the most notable omission from Western Europe this year. "Sex", from Norway and "Crossing" from Sweden, were also talked about as an early frontrunner for an Oscar nomination before losing to "Armand". Two films with Oscar pedigree "When the Light Breaks" (by Oscar nominee Runar Runarsson), "Parthenope" (by Oscar winner Paolo Sorrentino) also failed to make Round One. 

"On Becoming a Guinea Fowl" which some said was a "snub" by the UK was not...It was released on December 6, 2024 meaning it is eligible next year. 

Also not selected: "Amal" (Belgium), "The Blue Star" (Spain), "Dying" (Germany), "Marco" (Spain), "Misericordia" (France), "The Remarkable Life of Ibelin" (Norway), "Rickerl" (Austria), "Stormskerry Maja" (Finland) and "White Flash" (Netherlands)

Most Famous Face: It’s hard to have a more famous face than Selena Gomez, who co-stars as the confused American wife in “Emilia Perez” but Trine Dyrholm (“Girl with the Needle”), Edgar Ramirez and Zoe Saldana (also “Emilia Perez”) and Renate Reinsve (“Armand” should also be familiar.

Last Year's Race: I saw 15 of the 18 submissions last year. Though Western Europe got eight spots on the shortlist, my favorites- "Opponent" (A) from Sweden and "In the Shadow of Beirut" (A) from Ireland - somehow failed to make the cut. I also saw "The Last Ashes" (A-), "Sweet Dreams" (A-), "Teachers' Lounge" (A-),  "The Promised Land" (B+), "Behind the Haystacks" (B+), "Vera" (B+), "Fallen Leaves" (B), "Omen" (B-) "Godland" (C+), "Zone of Interest" (C+), "Thunder" (C), the surprisingly bad and dreadfully pretentious  "The Taste of Things" (D) and "Songs of Earth" (D-).

Though "Zone of Interest" won the Oscar, I was not a fan. 

Oscar International Feature- the films from Eastern Europe (18 films)

I just watched "Under the Volcano" at the EU Film Festival so I can finally do a rundown of the 18 films submitted from Eastern Europe. I've seen two-thirds (12 of 18) of the nominees. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 18

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 24

Who’s Missing?:  This is the lowest number of Eastern European submissions since 2011, with AZERBAIJAN, BELARUS, KOSOVO, MACEDONIA, MOLDOVA and RUSSIA failing to send films.

MACEDONIA announced in August that they didn’t have any suitable entries but they’ll almost certainly be back next year. BELARUS and RUSSIA haven’t sent any films since the invasion of Ukraine.

The biggest surprise for me was MOLDOVA which sent films to the Oscars the past two years and had quite a competitive process last year with four films in contention, including the unsuccessful "Varvara" which I really enjoyed. 2024 was a strong year for Moldova's tiny film industry and they had a number of good candidates so I’m not sure what happened. KOSOVO failed to enter for the second year in a row, and there was a scathing editorial in the local press condemning the Kosovo Cinematography Center (QKK) for failing to even launch a call for submissions this year, and for trying to claim the Albanian entry (Kosovo co-production “Waterdrop”) as an unofficial Kosovar entry. Kosovo was shortlisted for the Oscar in 2022 for “Hive”. I was disappointed (but not surprised) that AZERBAIJAN also failed to send a film. They’ve now sent only three films in the past ten years, most recently in 2022.

FRONTRUNNERS:

 

1.    LATVIA- “Flow” (Letterboxd: 4.0)

2.   CZECH REPUBLIC - “Waves” (4.0)

Both of these films have a good shot at the shortlist, although Latvia is way ahead. 

"Flow", a beautifully animated film about various animals confronting a flood in a post-human (maybe?) world, contains no dialogue and is one of the Oscar frontrunners for Best Animated Feature. My opinion is that its highly unlikely to be nominated in International Feature but it's very likely to make the Final 15. The animation in "Flow" is beautiful (especially the depiction of the water) and the film is a wholly original story. While an animated fiction feature has never been nominated in this category ("Flow" and "Waltz with Bashir" were documentaries), "Flow" has been getting a lot of buzz since its Cannes debut and is now peaking thanks to a U.S. release and a Golden Globe nomination. Most people find the film charming, despite some slow spots...and there's nothing like it among the other 84 contenders (only Pakistan and Latvia sent animated films). 

So- full disclosure - I'm not a huge fan of historical dramas....but the CZECH REPUBLIC love them....they've sent them six years in a row (I liked "Il Boemo"). But "Waves" is a very well-made film and it has some of the best critical reviews on the list. The film tells the true story of courageous Radio Czechoslovakia journalists who attempt to increase the limited space for press freedom in the 1960s and end up taking over the station to report on the 1968 Soviet invasion during the Prague Spring. I felt "Waves" was a good movie but that it would resonate far more with locals than with international audiences. Critics reviews seem to show that I am wrong....most people have loved the film. The Czech Republic has been shortlisted twice for "Painted Bird" and "Charlatan"....two creaky historical dramas that nobody really liked. "Waves" is miles better than either one of these and "Waves" is really on the bubble. It could easily get that 15th and final spot....or finish 16, 17 or 18th..... 

DARK HORSES:

 

3.    ROMANIA- "Three Kilometres to the End of the World" (3.4)

4.   HUNGARY - “Semmelweis” (3.2)

5.   GEORGIA- "The Antique" (approx. 3.4)

6.   BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "My Late Summer" (approx. 3.2)

More than Czech Republic or Latvia, I'm rooting for the far superior LGBT film from ROMANIA. "Three Kilometers" is the first LGBT-themed film from Romania, and one of two LGBT films this year from the more conservatives areas of Eastern Europe (also see Croatia). Set in the 1980s, "Three Kilometres" is a wonderful drama about a closeted gay teenager living in a tiny Romanian village who is the victim of a hate crime.  If the film was made in the United States, this would be a "good versus evil" story about confronting homophobia....or possibly a mystery as we try to unmask and convict the perpetrator. But that's not what this film is. It's a film about moral dilemmas, about family and religion and corruption. It's actually very similar to the equally wonderful submission from Albania (see below). I had the pleasure of seeing the film with the director in attendance which added even more layers to the story. Romania is deserving....but will enough people see it? 

HUNGARY has sent "Semmelweis", a 19th century medical biopic that feels very much like it was made in the Hollywood mold, from the casting of a gorgeous young actor in the lead role (apparently not what the real Dr. Semmelweis looked like), and the addition of romantic subplots and evil rival physicians. It has very high production values, an Amazon distribution and probably would have been nominated it was submitted in the 1980s. But there's something wrong that I can't put my finger on. It all feels a little overly packaged and reviews have been mixed outside of Hungary. If voters are lazy, it could get a shortlist spot like the aforementioned "Charlatan"....but without a premier director, I believe its out of luck. 

I haven't been able to find the films from GEORGIA and BOSNIA but I believe they're likely too small to make it. Georgia sent "The Antique", an anti-Putin drama (that's very significant is you've been reading the news from Georgia this year, in which "people power" demonstrations are trying to challenge the pro-Russian government). I've heard this is a really great film, focusing on the illegal political deportations of Georgians from Russia in 2006. But Americans won't know much about this incident, and a lot of people seem to characterize the film as "too cold". This is one of those films that would place higher if voters were required to see more films. As for Bosnia, the presence of Oscar winner Danis Tanovic behind the camera will definitely get a few more people to watch it. "My Late Summer", which opened the 2024 Sarajevo Film Festival, is a gentle village comedy-drama about a woman who travels to a Croatian island to claim an inheritance. Everyone I've heard from says it's a nice little film....but not much more than that. I love Balkan humor and of the eight Eastern Euro films I haven't seen yet, it's the one I really do want to see. 

MIDDLE OF THE PACK:

7.    CROATIA - “Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day" (approx. 3.5)

8.    ALBANIA- “Waterdrop” (approx. 3.2)

9.   LITHUANIA- "Drowning Dry" (3.4)

10.   POLAND- "Under the Volcano" (3.3)

I'm so sad to rank ALBANIA so low because this corruption drama is one of my Top 5 worldwide. When her beloved son is falsely accused of rape, a woman with a powerful position in the mayor's office uses her influence and ties to make sure her son stays out of jail.....but soon learns he may or may not be innocent. It's a mystery, it's a thriller and it should be on the shortlist....but nobody is talking about it. 

LITHUANIA's "Drowning Dry" is a challenging drama that uses time jumps and a non-linear format to tell the story of two sisters, their husband and their two children on vacation at a rural dacha. The story is told in bits and pieces which not all critics like. I was a big fan of the same director's similarly structured Oscar submission "Pilgrims", which I felt was clearer and more cathartic. The conclusion is logical....but is not adequately explained. I had to read several reviews and ponder the film before I understood everything. 

POLAND's "Under the Volcano" starts off strong, focusing on a middle-class Ukrainian family on vacation in the Canary Islands who find themselves stranded when Russia invades Ukraine on the day they are meant to fly home.   The film clearly wants to show the uncertainty of this family living in limbo....but this doesn't almost makes for a clear and meaningful story, as the family aimlessly spends their days wandering around Tenerife. The family (and the film) literally meander and get lost....and the audience eventually loses all interest. There are clear efforts to link the plight of the Ukrainian migrants, who find themselves welcomed by their sympathetic Spanish hosts, with those from Africa....but this is done surprisingly pooly. 

Lastly we have Croatia's "Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day". Croatia had one of their best film years ever in 2024 so it was surprisingly when they selected the completely unknown and unscreened "Beautiful Evening" as their Oscar candidate. I've heard this graphic B+W LGBT historical drama set during the Communist era is pretty amazing.....but the film has less than zero buzz, and LGBT movies have an uphill climb in this category. 

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:

  

11.   SLOVAKIA- "Hungarian Dressmaker" (approx 3.3)

12.   ARMENIA- "Yasha and Leonid Brezhnev" (approx. 3.5)

13.   SLOVENIA- "Family Therapy" (3.2)

14.   MONTENEGRO- "Supermarket" (approx. 3.2)

Not much to say about these four dark horses, which includes three dark comedies.....Let's take a look alphabetically:

ARMENIA was shortlisted last year for Communist-era comedy "Amerikatsi" which I liked. They've selected another Communist comedy - "Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev" - which beat out "Amerikatsi" for Best Director and Best Screenplay at Armenia's National Film Awards. But "Yasha" is probably this year's most obscure entry from Europe so it faces an uphill battle. 

MONTENEGRO also selected an obscure film, namely "Supermarket", a spare 75-minute comedy about a homeless man living in a large supermarket. Montenegro is the smallest country in Eastern Europe and their film industry is correspondingly small. Although I've heard that both of them are cute little films, the two of them have the fewest votes of any European candidates on IMDB and they lack the buzz, critical reviews and profiles required to make the shortlist. 

I had high hopes for SLOVAKIA's "Hungarian Dressmaker", about a Hungarian-Christian woman hiding a Jewish neighbor's young son in her barn in Nazi-occupied Slovakia. Slovakia clearly remembers winning the Oscar for "The Shop on Main Street" but "Dressmaker" doesn't rise to that level. It's a fairly standard and unmemorable drama that focuses more on language nationalism than the little boy.   

SLOVENIA is another dark comedy that has a much higher profile. But "Family Therapy" is a weird and divisive film that isn't likely to charm AMPAS voters. This "class clash" movie about an upper-class Slovenian family dealing with a mysterious French visitor and a family of poorer Slovenian visitors is just kind of odd. It tries its best to channel Yorthos and Haneke and it has a few charming moments....but doesn't manage to make it. 

NO CHANCE IN HELL

 2

15.  SERBIA- "Russian Consul" (approx. 3.5)

16.   UKRAINE- "La Palisiada" (3.3)

17.   ESTONIA- "8 Views of Lake Biwa" (3.3)

18.   BULGARIA- "Triumph" (3.3)

Let's start with the three films I have seen, which are simply way way WAY out of their league in this category. All of them should have picked something else. BULGARIA picked last-minute release Communist era "Triumph". I had high hopes for this. I love dark comedies and I picked "Glory" (by the same directors) as one of my personal Top Five in 2017 and I was thrilled by Maria Bakalova's surprise "Borat" nomination in 2021. But "Triumph", about two psychics who help the Bulgarian military unearth an alleged alien underground base in the waning days of Communism, is simply pointless and dull. Bakalova does her best but the script is inane. But "Triumph" is still better than the nonsensical "Eight Views of Lake Biwa" from ESTONIA, a series of ridiculous vignettes about the residents of a small town after an (extremely confusing) boat disaster. While "Triumph" is mildly diverting, "Lake Biwa" is just nonsense with poetic dialogue, confusing character relationships that stops making any sort of sense early on. The one interesting scene in the film ends abruptly without a conclusion. But even Estonia is a masterpiece compared to "La Palisiada". As UKRAINE bravely fights a war against Russia, we all feel terrible saying anything bad about them. But the fact is that if I hadn't read the film synopsis, I would have no idea what "La Palisiada" was about. In fact, I still don't have any idea what the film was about since the synopsis bears no resemblance to the film I saw. A pointless mess...which I've ranked higher than Estonia and Ukraine since it has admittedly won some important awards. But it won't score here. 

Lastly, SERBIA has chosen yet another nationalist drama, this time explaining the historical background of Serbian claims to Kosovo. Whatever you believe about Kosovo, I can promise you that this is not an issue of great interest to Oscar voters. It's gotten no major festival play and even though it's probably not a bad film, it's the wrong choice for this category. 

FUN FACTS:

Genres: We have the one animated film (Latvia), five “sort of” comedies (Armenia, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Slovenia) and twelve more traditional dramas.

I’ve Already Seen: I’ve seen twelve of the eighteen films- Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Polandm, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: “My Late Summer”, by Oscar winner Danis Tanovic

Number I Predicted Correctly: I got nine out of 18 right….exactly half.  Only Croatia was a huge shock, although Estonia, Georgia, Montenegro and Ukraine also took me by surprise.

Big Four Festivals: 

Almost none…..Romania was the only country that had a film in the Main Competition of a major festival this year. 

·        Berlin- 

·        Cannes-     Latvia, Romania

·        Sundance-

·        Venice-       Georgia

Women Directors- There are five women directors: Rusudan Glurjidze (Georgia), Iveta Grofova (Slovakia), Kristina Grozeva (Bulgaria), Ivona Juka (Croatia) and Sonja Prosenc (Slovenia)

Oldest and Youngest Directors-  I believe that Lajos Koltai (Hungary), 78, is the oldest director worldwide. Gints Zilbalodis (Latvia), 30, is the youngest from the Eastern Euro group.

Languages – As usual, the Eastern Euro group features a lot of multi-lingual films. The Slovakian film in particular is about the Hungarian-Slovakian language conflict in Nazi-occupied Slovakia, necessitating dialogue in three languages, while Poland’s film is about the multi-country journey of a Ukrainian family (with no Polish) and .

So keeping that in mind, we have four films mostly in the Serbo-Croatian languages, two in Ukrainian, one each in Albanian, Armenian, Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, Georgian, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Romanian and Slovenian, plus the uniquely multi-lingual Slovakian film (which I estimate was 40% Hungarian, 40% Slovak, 15% German and 5% Czech). The Latvian film, “Flow”, has no spoken dialogue. The Armenian, Georgian and Ukrainian films also have a fair bit of Russian, while the Polish and Slovenian films have a good deal of English.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Three

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Latvia

Buzziest Films: “Flow” from Latvia, which is in the midst of a U.S. arthouse release and a hot contender for an Animated Feature nomination as well.

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 11th, 2024):      Best: Czech Republic and Latvia (both 4.0)….Worst: Hungary and Slovenia (3.2)

Dumbest Decision: I’d say that several countries made mistakes this year, namely Bulgaria, Estonia, Serbia and Ukraine…..But I’d have to vote for Eston

ia as “dumbest” since they had a really well-reviewed alternative, “Lioness”.

Controversies and Changes: There was a slight controversy in Armenia when some in the diaspora whined that “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” was selected over Karabakh documentary “1489”, implying there were political considerations and/or conflicts of interest involved (the director is a high-ranking member of the Armenian Film Academy, though he was not on the selection committee) . I haven’t seen either film so I can’t say which one is better….but after reading the media stories and seeing the language they used (claiming the film was “blocked” when in fact it lost a vote) it sounds like they haven’t seen the films either and were using the choice largely to attack PM Pashinyan.  

Oscar History: A whopping 11 of the 18 directors have been here before.

Danis Tanovic won the Oscar for Bosnia-Herzegovina in 2003 for “No Man’s Land”, and is representing the country for the fifth time, also following the shortlisted “An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker”, as well as “Circus Columbia” and “Death in Sarajevo”.  

Here for the third time: Bulgaria’s Grozeva-Valchanov directing team (“Glory” and “The Father”) and Slovenia’s Sonja Prosenc (“The Tree” and “History of Love”)

Here for the second time: Albania’s Robert Budina (“Agon”, 2013), Armenia’s Edgar Baghdasaryan (“Lengthy Night”, 2019), Croatia’s Ivona Juka (“You Carry Me”, the 2015 candidate from Montenegro), Georgia’s Rusudan Glurjidze (“House of Others”, 2016), Hungary’s Lajos Koltai (“Fateless”, 2005), Lithuania’s Laurynas Bareiša (“Pilgrims”, 2022), Serbia’s Miroslav Lekic (“Labyrinth”, 2002) and Slovakia’s Iveta Grofova (“Made in Ash”, 2012).

Of the 18 eligible countries, only four have won the Oscar (Bosnia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), three others have been nominated (Estonia, Georgia, Romania), and three shortlisted (Bulgaria, Serbia, Ukraine). The other eight are waiting for their first trip to the second round.

Most Notable Omissions: 

 

The most high-profile film not selected was probably Venice Special Jury Prize (3^rd place) winner “April” from Georgia, which lost to “The Antique” by a close 5-4 vote. I’ve heard these are both great films…sometimes a country just has a difficult choice to make!

Though less well-known, I’d also like to highlight three other films that aren’t on this year’s list: “That’s It for Today” (which lost the Serbian selection by two votes), “Lioness” (from Estonia), and “Without Air” (from Hungary). “Without Air” was one of my favorite films of the year….very similar to “The Teacher’s Lounge” but in my opinion a great deal more satisfying. I knew that the more traditionally Oscary “Semmelweis” was the frontrunner for Hungary but I was disappointed that “Without Air” didn’t get the bump it could have gotten from an Oscar berth. “That’s It for Today” (aka “Enough for Now”) looks like it was the victim of political maneuvring as Serbia picked yet another nationalist historical film by a 70-year old, instead of a critically acclaimed festival gem by a young director. Estonia’s selection of the nonsensical mess “7 Views of Lake Biwa” over thriller “Lioness” was just baffling.

Also not selected: “1489” (Armenia), “Amerikánka” (Czech Republic), “Celebration” (Croatia), “Holy Week” (Romania), “Intercepted” (Ukraine), “Maria’s Silence” (Latvia), “Scarborn” (Poland), “The Shameless” (Bulgaria) and “Wishing on a Star” (Slovakia).

 

Most Famous Face: Oscar nominee Maria Bakalova who stars as the possibly emotionally disturbed, possibly psychic young woman at the center of Bulgaria’s “Triumph”. Norwegian actor Kristoffer Joner, who has has supporting roles in Hollywood films like “Mission Impossible: Fallout” and “The Revenant”, has a small role in Slovenia’s “Family Therapy”.

Last Year’s Race: I saw 17 of the 20 submissions from last year, missing only Bosnia, Lithuania (recently released on Amazon), and Moldova. My favorite was the unheralded “Blaga’s Lessons” from Bulgaria (A-) although the Oscar-winning “20 Days in Mariupol” from Ukraine (A-) was also deserving. I would recommend just three others- “Amerikatsi” (Armenia), “Housekeeping for Beginners” (Macedonia) and the much more challenging “Citizen Saint” (Georgia) (all B+). Also seen (in order): Romania (B+), Poland (B), Czech Republic (B), Hungary (B), Estonia (B), Albania (B), Slovakia (B-), Serbia (B-), Montenegro (B-), Latvia (C), Slovenia (C) and Croatia (C-).