FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Sadly, the announcement isn't as exciting as it used to be....With the new rules, it's the films that get seen that make the shortlist. Even if every person assigned to, say, watch the film from Greenland ranks it #1, I don't think it would have enough votes to make the shortlist when four times as many people are watching films that have more backers. (witness "Bardo"). 

Films that have found celebrity backers to host screenings and back their cause have an advantage....Tom Cruise is supporting Japan, Jaime Foxx is supporting Egypt, and a whole bunch of 'Free Palestine' celebrities have lined up behind Tunisia. Sean Baker ("Anora") wrote the screenplay to "Left-Handed Girl", Martin Scorsese produced "Homebound" and Gael Garcia Bernal stars in "Magellan" (though that still probably won't make it!" So, the seven frontrunners that have mostly rocked the precursors (Brazil, France, Norway, Spain, Taiwan, Tunisia) and films that have studio or celebrity backing are likely to make it. The only shortlist shocker in the last few years was Armenia's "Amerikatsi"....but even that made sense when you realize the American director was based in Hollywood and appears to have been working his connections. 

Here goes....I've seen almost half the contenders but only seven (highlighted in yellow) that actually have a chance at the next round: 

PREDICTED SHORTLIST:

1. NORWAY- "Sentimental Value"

2. FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident"

3. BRAZIL- "Secret Agent"

4. KOREA- "No Other Choice"

5. SPAIN- "Sirat"

6. TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab"

7. TAIWAN- "Left-Handed Girl"

8. DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Againt Putin"

9. UNITED KINGDOM- "My Father's Shadow" 

10. INDIA- "Homebound"

11. ARGENTINA- "Belen"

12. IRAQ- "The President's Cake" (seems to have lost momentum but has Sony Picture Classics)

13. JAPAN- "Kokuho"

14. COLOMBIA- "Un poeta"

15. JORDAN- "All That's Left of You"

SUPER STRONG ALTERNATES:

16. UKRAINE- "2000 Metres to Andriivka" (surprise snub)

17. PALESTINE- "Palestine 36"

18. SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift"

19. GERMANY- "Sound of Falling" (surprise snub; everyone says it's incredibly boring)

20. EGYPT- "Happy Birthday"

21. SLOVENIA- "Little Trouble Girls"

22. MOROCCO- "Calle Malaga"

23. LEBANON- "Sad and Beautiful World"

DARK HORSES

24. MACEDONIA- "The Tale of Silyan"

25. PHILIPPINES- "Magellan"

26. AUSTRIA- "Peacock"

27. ITALY- "Familia"

28. SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic

29. ISRAEL- "The Sea"

30. ICELAND - "The Love that Remains"

2026 International Oscar Submissions- The Films from Africa and the Middle East (15 films)

 So, I'll keep this post relatively short. 

I was able to see 22/39 European submissions (56%), 12/22 from Asia (55%) and 8/16 from the Americas (50%) so I feel pretty good about my predictions. 

But this year it was almost impossible to get screeners for the films from Africa and the Middle East and I only saw "Disco Afrika", the cute debut entry from MADAGASCAR. So, by default, I guess that's my "favorite" from the region. 

The most interesting thing about this group is that four of the fifteen films are about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict including frontrunner "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (representing Tunisia), "All That's Left of You" (a Palestinian film representing Jordan), "Palestine 36" (representing Palestine itself) and "The Sea", an Arabic-language film representing Israel. The fact that Israel itself has selected a film on this theme shows how important it is for artists and filmmakers in the region. Will the Palestine-themed films canceled themselves out? Will they somehow dominate the shortlist? Golden Globe nominee "Hind Rajab" by two-time Oscar nominee Kaouther Ben Hania is expected to make the shortlist later today with historical dramas "Palestine 36" and "All That's Left of You" on the bubble. "The Sea", which is also supposed to be excellent, has less people behind it and hasn't been as widely seen so it's probably out. A poll on Awardsdaily had Tunisia in 4th place, Palestine in 15th and Jordan tied (with Colombia) for 16th. 

Another interesting issue from the region? The lack of films from Africa. I was expecting this to be a record year for African films as 15 countries publicly announced the formation of national committees and a 16th country (Burkina Faso) had a very strong contender. I think the record is 11 and it seemed certain that that would be broken. But, one by one, African countries declined to enter. Rwanda and Zimbabwe said that they would debut this year but sent nothing. Namibia and Sudan said the only films submitted didn't meet AMPAS rules. African powerhouses Kenya and Nigeria said they received submisisons but voted to send nothing (why??). Algeria made a rather cruel statement- "it is apparent that the two submitted films did not have the potential to reasonably be 'shortlisted' by AMPAS and despite their good intentions, such participation would risk harming the image of Algerian cinema on the world stage." And Cameroon, which had sent five films in a row, also failed to enter. After Senegal was disqualified (why?), only six African films remain. 

MY REVIEWS:

"Disco Afrika" is the first-ever entry from MADAGASCAR, a beautiful country famous for its wildlife. But "Disco Afrika" is about the country's history and people, with nary a lemur or aye-aye in sight. This is a solid coming-of-age drama with beautiful local music but I don't see it making an impact in the voting. It's a small film that is likely to get lost among higher-profile entries. I confess I don't remember too many of the details, except that the film starts strong and gets a bit confusing in its finale. 

UNDISPUTED FRONTRUNNER- 

1. TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (Letterboxd: 4.3)

NOT SO DARK HORSES

2. IRAQ- "The President's Cake" (3.9)

3. PALESTINE- "Palestine 36" (3.8)

4. JORDAN- "All That's Left of You" (4.1)

VERY DARK HORSES

5. EGYPT- "Happy Birthday" (3.7)

6. LEBANON- "Sad and Beautiful World" (3.8)

7. MOROCCO- "Calle Malaga" (3.7)

8. ISRAEL- "The Sea" (3.6)

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

9. SOUTH AFRICA- "The Heart is a Muscle" (3.4)

10. TURKEY- "One of Those Days When Hemme Dies" (3.4)

11. IRAN- "Cause of Death Unknown (3.3)

12. SENEGAL- "Demba" (3.2)

NO CHANCE

13. MADAGASCAR- "Disco Afrika" (3.4)

14. SAUDI ARABIA- "Hijra" (3.4)

15. UGANDA- "Kimote" (3.2)

FUN FACTS:

Who's Out: Many of the countries in this region only submit intermittently. The most important absences were Algeria, Kenya and Nigeria, which all formed committees but decided not to enter. 19 other countries have sent films in the past, mostly just once or twice. I did expect Burkina Faso ("Katanga: The Dance of the Scorpions") and Chad ("Diya") to return. 

Genres:       All fifteen films are dramas, although many have thriller elements (Iran, South Africa, Tunisia, Turkey). 

I’ve Already Seen: Just Madagascar. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See Next: I like the look of "Cause of Death: Unknown" from Iran but can't find English subtitles for it. 

Number I Predicted Correctly:  7/15 - Iraq, Madagascar, Morocco, Palestine, Senegal, South Africa and Uganda - plus I predicted Tunisia would send "Hind Rajab" if it got a qualifying release....and I picked "Cause of Death Unknown" for Iran TWO YEARS AGO before it got banned, shelved and then unbanned. 

Big Four Festivals: (10/15 premiered at one of these four....Only Uganda got no Class-A Festival play)

·        Berlin-       Madagascar, Senegal, South Africa

·        Cannes-     Iraq

·        Sundance-  Jordan

·        Venice-       Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey

Women Directors-  6/15 (40%) of the films are directed by women- Shahad Ameen (Saudi Arabia), Kaouther Ben Hania (Tunisia), Cherien Dabis (Jordan), Sarah Goher (Egypt), Annemarie Jacir (Palestine) and Maryam Touzani (Morocco)

Oldest and Youngest Directors- I'm honestly not sure....but possibly Israel's Shai Carmeli-Pollak, 57, and Lebanon's Cyril Aris, 38? But I don't know. 

Languages – As usual Arabic-language films dominate. 8/15 (including Israel) are mostly in Arabic. The others are in Afrikaans, Fula, Luganda, Malagasy, Persian, Spanish (Morocco) and Turkish.  

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- It's a strong group.....I'd say eight. 

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Definitely Iraq...but Egypt is hoping too. 

Buzziest Film: "Hind Rajab"

Letterboxd Ratings (as of  December 10, 2025):      Best:  Tunisia (4.3), Worst:  Senegal and Uganda (3.2)

Dumbest Decision:  Nobody was "dumb" (countries in every region are getting smarter!) although possibly Saudi Arabia could have chosen better. 

Controversies and Changes:  Israel's right-wing government was furious that Israel's Ophir Awards gave the Best Picture prize to a film not in alignment with government priorities. Perhaps the lack of financial support is one of the reasons this very well-reviewed film hasn't had much buzz? I'm not sure.

Egypt's "Happy Birthday" wasn't on the original Egyptian shortlist that was announced on social media the day before Egypt's official announcement....but that looks like it was a late release date issue rather than something more sinister and the film has excellent reviews. 

Senegal's "Demba" was submitted following a fairly competitive process but didn't appear on the final list so surely there's some controversial story there.  

Nobody seemed to mind the fact that the Jordanian film is actually Palestinian.....Or that Sarah Goher and Cherien Dabis are dual  citizens born and raised in the USA. 

Oscar History: 

Kaouther Ben Hania is here for the fourth time and she already has two Oscar nominations under her belt for "The Man Who Sold His Skin" (International Feature) and "Four Daughters" (Documentary Feature). My favorite Ben Hania film- "Beauty and the Dogs" will probably end up being the only one without any Oscar love. 

Annemarie Jacir is representing Palestine for the fourth time following the Oscar-worthy "Wajib", as well as "Salt of this Sea" and "When I Saw You". 

Maryam Touzani is representing Morocco for the third time, after being shortlisted for "Blue Caftan" but not for "Adam". She also worked with her husband Nabil Ayouch to co-write three of his submissions. 

Here for the second time: Shahad Ameen (Saudi Arabia; "Scales") and Mamadou Dia ("Nafi's Father") though he was disqualified this year.

Most Notable Omissions:  

 

 

  

Also absent: "Carissa" (South Africa), "Dead Language" (Israel), "Katanga, Dance of the Scorpions" (FESPACO winner; Burkina Faso), "Mother, Mother" (Somalia), "The Old Bachelor" (Iran), "Une si longue lettre" (Senegal), "Who Do I Belong To?" (Tunisia) and the multi-national "To A Land Unknown". 

Most Famous Face: It's a tie between two actors working outside their home countries- Spanish legend Carmen Maura who headlines Morocco's "Calle Malaga" and Oscar nominee Jeremy Irons, who has a supporting role in "Palestine 36". Hiam Abbass, also in "Palestine 36" gets the bronze. 

Last Year’s Race: I saw 12/16 last year and the two best by far were the ones from Israel and Palestine- "Come Closer" and "From Ground Zero" (both A-). I think I'll have to give the regional award to Palestine because of the scale and the difficulty of the filmmaking. 

I also saw (in order) "Arze" (B+), "Nawi" (B+), "My Sweet Land" (B+), "Baghdad Messi" (B), "Everybody Loves Touda" (C+), "Algiers" (C), "Mai Martaba" (C), the ridiculously overrated "Dahomey" (D), and "Flight 404" (D-)

I failed to see the entries from Cameroon, Iran, South Africa (now on Amazon) and Tunisia. 

2026 International Oscar Submissions- The Films from Western Europe (19.5 films)

And here are the Western European films that traditionally dominate the Oscar shortlist. They got eight out of 15 spots on the shortlist the past two years. This year, their contenders are slightly weaker but they'll probably still get at least six or seven. 

I managed to see 10 of the 19 candidates....plus the film that rightfully should be the 20th candidate on this list- the utterly charming screwball comedy "Ciao Ciao" from MALTA. "Ciao Ciao" was one of my favorite films this season and it was the only candidate that answered Malta's open call for submissions....It's as good or better than most of Malta's previous submissions but the tiny island nation's Producers Association decided not to take advantage of this excellent opportunity to promote their national cinema. It's very sad. "Ciao Ciao" however will represent Malta at the AFI European Union Film Festival in the U.S. 

Unfortunately, I haven't seen the three front-runners (France, Norway, Spain) but here are my reviews:

BEST OF THE REGION:

DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Against Putin" The best of this year's documentaries is "Mr. Nobody Against Putin", filmed in secret (sort of) at a school in central Russia, to expose the militarization of the Russian education system following the invasion of Ukraine. Made by a Russian videographer employed at a local high school and an American filmmaker based in Denmark, "Putin" shows how the Russian government is adding disinformation to its high-school curricula and drafting boys straight out of high-school in provincial Russia....who don't always come home...... Daringly original and sometimes downright frightening....it simultaneously serves as a cautionary tale for an increasingly fascist America. I just hope the teachers and students featured in the film are safe. 

SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift" A fast-paced drama about one night in the life of a hard-working nurse dealing with a series of patients in two understaffed wards. German actress Leonie Benesch ("Teacher's Lounge") creates a thoroughly sympathetic character. I thought this was excellent. It was an early frontrunner but seems to have lost momentum. 

THE REST: (in order)

 

 

MALTA- "Ciao Ciao" A comedy told in three acts...."Ciao Ciao" starts off as a 1930s screwball comedy about two feuding couples at a dinner party, except with modern, witty 2025 dialogue. Chapter Two starts off as a Richard Linklater romance before their story is skillfully connect this story to the first. Chapter Three veers into mystery-thriller territory and the less you know about that, the better. This is a charming theatrical black comedy that's tons of fun, and manages to look great even though it was made on a spare $60K budget (and - to my surprise- Dogme principles....Remember Dogme?). People who know a little bit about Malta (I've traveled there to meet Maltese friends and know more than the average person about the political/economic situation) will appreciate the film even more but that's not necessary. It's a really entertaining film and it's really a crime that it won't be in the race. Do I think it would be nominated? No, it doesn't have anyone lobbying for it. But it's a lot of fun and it should be on the list. Try and find it.  

AUSTRIA- "Peacock" This is a pretty special little film that starts off as a comedy about Matthias, a man with a job as a super-elite “rent-a-friend” (yes, this is a real thing!). It ends up….hmmm….well, it ends up not as a comedy….and yet it still is very, very funny. I’ve heard people compare "Peacock" to a Ruben Ostlund film….and I see what they mean because it’s cerebral and makes you think….but I don’t really like Ostlund and I think Bernhard Wenger is a better director. Matthias, who has virtually lost any sense of self and identity by immersing himself in his “roles” somehow ends up being one of this season’s most lovable main characters despite literally having no personality. It’s slightly slow at times….but still manages to be one of the more memorable entries this year. 

GREENLAND- "Walls - Akinni Inuk" Documentaries about real people sometimes struggle to tell a complete story because real people's lives usually don’t have a “cinematic ending”. And yet this spare 75-minute documentary tells a complete, compact story about a seemingly ordinary Greenlandic woman serving an indefinite sentence in jail for two serious violent crimes. I’m usually not the right audience for prison films (the underrated “In the Heart of the Machine” is an exception) but “Walls” is an effective story of female friendship (between the prisoner and the director…there’s hardly a single man seen during the film’s running time), fate and Greenlandic societal problems. This is a small and simple film but it's enormously effective.  

  

SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic" This is a very effective political conspiracy thriller set in Susi's Egypt....where it will surely be banned and never seen. Fares Fares plays a popular actor who is blackmailed by the Egyptian dictatorship - he must play the lead role in a sycophantic biopic about the President, or else his life, his son's life and his mistress' life will all get much worse. If he does the job? Money, fame and connections....and also a ruined career and reputation. Considering that Tarik Saleh's earlier "Boy From Heaven" made the shortlist, I've been surprised that "Eagles" hasn't gotten very good reviews even though I think it's probably the superior film. 

FINLAND- "100 Litres of Gold" I’ve heard people giving Finland flack for choosing hangover comedy “100 Litres of Gold” for the Oscars but this is a wild and enjoyable ride about two sisters who promise to make 100 liters of their nationally famous traditional liquor (sahti) for the wedding of their third sister. When they accidentally binge drink all 100 liters in one night, they have to get beg, buy and steal enough sahti for the wedding taking place later that day….The film is at its best when it goes all-in for "Hangover"-type humor....and when it suddenly turns serious at the end. For a lot of the film, it wobbles halfway between these two....but it's always fun....though unlikely to appeal to conservative Oscar voters. 

IRELAND- "Sanatorium" This is a sweet little documentary about a once-grand Soviet sanatorium (a sort of health spa) in Ukraine that was struggling to survive even before Russia invaded the country in 2022. We meet the staff, the doctors, the manager and some guests (all domestic tourists from Ukraine  since foreigners are too afraid to come). It features a mostly charming cast of characters and shows how Ukrainians are trying to continue enjoying life despite the hardships of war. But other than the war lurking in the background, this is a light film that won’t be able to compete with the other documentaries. 

  

LUXEMBOURG- "Hors d'haleine" (Breathing Underwater) Luxembourg rejoins the Oscar race with this well-acted but mostly forgettable film about a pregnant middle-class woman who checks herself into a shelter for battered women.   

PORTUGAL- "Banzo" For the first hour, this Portuguese costume drama is an intriguing melodrama set in a 19th century Portuguese cocoa plantation on the tiny African island of Principe. Although slavery is technically illegal, Portuguese colonialists have "imported" Mozambican laborers who have in reality been kidnapped from their villages thousands of miles from the island. Many of these laborers develop a sickness ("banzo") in which they (understandably) lose the will to live. While the film is a bit slow and langurous (like all Portuguese films), the film looks absolutely gorgeous and deals with interesting issues of race and colonialism that are still relevant today. The second half of the film changes its setting from the plantation to another part of the island, loses several of its interesting characters and mostly stops making sense. But Principe still looks pretty!  

NETHERLANDS- "Reedland" A slow-moving murder mystery where you won't particularly care whodunnit. 

LOCKED FOR THE SHORTLIST

  

1. NORWAY- "Sentimental Value" (Letterboxd: 4.2)

2. FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident" (4.0)

3. SPAIN- "Sirat" (3.6)

Most people believe that this year's Oscar winner will either be Cannes Palme d'Or winner "It Was Just An Accident" from Iran  France or Cannes Jury Prize winner "Sentimental Value". Both films are in the Best Picture conversation, have great reviews from critics and have hit all of the precursors. They're both in. 

They'll surely be joined by trippy desert rave drama "Sirat" whose Golden Globe nomination nailed down its spot for the shortlist. I haven't seen "Sirat" (or the other two frontrunners) yet but it's much more divisive than the other two. It's not certain to make it to the Final Five but it's sure to make the shortlist. 

VERY LIKELY

4. DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Against Putin" (3.9)

5. UNITED KINGDOM- "My Father's Shadow" (3.9)

It's always foolish to bet against Denmark - they've made the shortlist eight of the past ten years...That's better than any other country. "Putin", as noted above, is one of the best films on the list and I think it will really resonate with voters to get the unofficial "Documentary" spot on the shortlist. 

As for "My Father's Shadow"....the UK has been shortlisted two years in a row as lobbying becomes more important. "Shadow", about a father and his two sons in Nigeria, has gotten great reviews although I'm confused why it's here as I've heard it's mostly in English. There was a rule change made a few years ago that films in Pidgin English or Creoles are allowed to compete if a native English speaker would require English subtitles to understand....but "Shadow" was accepted by AMPAS so I guess it's okay?  

DARK HORSES

 

6. SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift" (3.9)

7. GERMANY- "The Sound of Falling" (3.6)

8. ICELAND- "The Love That Remains" (3.6)

Period drama "Sound of Falling", about several generations of women living in the same rural home over various different time periods, is considered to be one of the favorites for the shortlist. But everyone I know says the film is difficult, overlong and boring. I predict it will be a surprise snub. But I'm probably wrong. 

"Late Shift" is a really excellent film and it was the first film announced to represent Western Europe. It was considered a frontrunner a few months ago but I think that the early announcement hurt its momentum. Still it would be a deserving choice. "The Love That Remains", an Icelandic drama about a couple getting a divorce, is going to be on the bubble. Director Hlynur Palmason made the shortlist for "Godland" (which I thought was overrated) and this film looks more accessible. I think it will just miss. 

MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

 

9. SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic" (3.4)

10. ITALY- "Familia" (3.4)

11.  AUSTRIA- "Peacock" (3.5)

12. BELGIUM- "Young Mothers" (3.4)

These four films have their fans but there's too much competition for them to make the shortlist this year. If I hadn't read the reviews, I would rank "Eagles" a lot higher. I think it's more accessible than "Boy From Heaven" which got a surprise shortlist spot a few years ago. But reviews haven't been as good. I'd love to be proven wrong about quirky comedy "Peacock", one of this year's more original entries but nobody is talking about it as a contender even though it's one of the few entries already available on streaming in the United States. 

"Young Mothers" was mentioned as an early favorite but this category has never picked a Dardennes movie (not even for "Two Days, One Night", which was only nominated for Best Actress) and "Young Mothers" is not considered to be one of their strongest films. 

Lastly, we have "Familia" from Italy, which has been shortlisted three of the past four years, including last year for the dull village drama "Vermiglio". That bodes well for "Familia" but this is film, about a family headed by an abusive toxic patriarch, has very little buzz, awards or critical praise. Still, it has a chance.  

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

MALTA- "Ciao Ciao" 

13. PORTUGAL- "Banzo" (3.4)

14. GREENLAND- "Walls - Akinni Inuk" (3.4)

15. LUXEMBOURG- "Breathing Underwater" (3.5)

I've already gone over these four films above. "Ciao Ciao" from Malta wasn't actually submitted and "Banzo" from Portugal has the production values but not the reviews (and, of course, Portugal is never ever ever nominated).  Greenlandic documentary "Walls" and Luxembourgian drama are extremely small films from extremely small countries but they will represent their countries proudly. 

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR

16. FINLAND- "100 Liters of Gold" (3.3)

17. IRELAND- "Sanatorium" (3.6)

18. NETHERLANDS- "Reedland" (3.3)

19. GREECE- "Arcadia" (3.4)

"100 Litres of Gold" is tons of fun but isn't serious enough for this category. "Sanatorium" is too small and lightweight. I've read the reviews for Greece's "Arcadia", the one film from this group I haven't seen and I still can't understand what the film is about. Supposedly a weird supernatural mystery that "gets lost in its own ideas" according one review, this looks to be a non-starter. And lastly, the reviews for "Reedland" just aren't good enough.  

FUN FACTS:

Who's Out: Only MALTA failed to send a film. Genres:       Three comedies (Austria, Finland, Norway), three documentaries (Denmark, Greenland, Ireland), three "thrillers" (France, Spain and Sweden)  and ten "straight" dramas. But you could argue about this since many films straddle genres.  

I’ve Already Seen: I’ve seen 10 of the 19 films- Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greenland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See Next: Definitely "It Was Just An Accident"

Number I Predicted Correctly:   8 out of 19....Belgium, Greece, Greenland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. And I should have gotten Malta right but they didn't send their one candidate. 

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin-       Austria, Greece, Switzerland

·        Cannes-     More than half! Belgium (Best Screenplay), France  (Palme d'Or), Germany (Jury Prize), Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway (Grand Prix; 2nd Place), Spain (Jury Prize), Sweden, United Kingdom (Camera d'Or, Special Mention)

·        Sundance-  Denmark

·        Venice-       None

Women Directors-  Only four of 19 films (21%) are directed by women....That's the lowest rate of any of the five regions. We have Margarida Cardoso (Portugal), Mascha Schilinski (Germany), Petra Volpe (Switzerland), and the directing team of Sofie Rørdam and Nina Paninnguaq Skydsbjerg (Greenland)

Oldest and Youngest Directors- The oldest is Jean-Pierre Dardenne (Belgium), 74. The youngest are probably Bernhard Wenger (Austria) and Sven Bresser (Netherlands), who are both 33. 

Languages – We have three mostly in German (Austria, Germany and Switzerland), two mostly in French (Belgium, Luxembourg), plus one each in Arabic (Sweden), Dutch, Finnish, Greek, Greenlandic, Icelandic, Italian, Norwegian, Persian (France), Portuguese, Russian (Denmark), Spanish, Ukrainian (Ireland) and, allegedly, Pidgin English (UK)...though people have told me it's really a majority English film. A lot of films (Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway etc.) are multilingual.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Quite a few. Maybe nine?

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Well....only Greenland, Luxembourg and Portugal have never been nominated and none are likely to be shortlisted this year. But theoretically? Portugal by default. 

Buzziest Film: Dueling Cannes winners "It Was Just An Accident" and "Sentimental Value", followed by "Sirat". 

Letterboxd Ratings (as of  December 10, 2025):      Best:  Norway (4.2), Worst: Finland and the Netherlands (3.3)

Dumbest Decision:  Well, the dumbest decision was MALTA who chose to send nothing despite "Ciao Ciao" being eligible, ready and willing to represent the country. But of the countries that did enter? Definitely the NETHERLANDS, who rejected Oscar winner Mike van Diem's acclaimed "Our Girls" for the relatively unheralded "Reedland", which nobody seems to like much. I'm not sure anybody else was "dumb" but I think Ireland, Italy and the UK made mistakes. "Sanatorium" is a lovely little film but choosing a film made in Ukraine when Irish-language cinema probably saw its largest-ever film output seems like a bit of a shame. 

Controversies and Changes:  No huge controversies...although the fact that "My Father's Shadow" was allowed into the race despite allegedly being spoken mostly in standard English (I haven't seen the film to verify) could still yet cause controversy if it's shortlisted. The fact that France selected an Iranian film raised some eyebrows but didn't generate any serious problems. "Seed of the Sacred Fig" already set a precedent for films directed by Iranian exiles last year. 

U.S. director (and Danish resident) David Borenstein is representing Denmark, showing that the oft-repeated rumor that American directors cannot compete here is untrue.  

Twenty years ago, the films from Denmark, France, Ireland, Sweden and the UK might have been disqualified due to the now-canceled native language rule. 

Oscar History: 

Joachim Trier is the only Oscar nominee in the race this year. He is representing Norway for the fourth time. He got an Oscar nomination for "The Worst Person in the World" and also represented the kingdom for "Reprise" (2006) and "Thelma" (2017). 

The Dardenne brothers are representing Belgium for the fifth time - with no luck at all in this category - following "Rosetta", "The Son", "The Child" and "Two Days, One Night

Hlynur Palmason is representing Iceland for the third time following "A White, White Day" (2019) and the shortlisted "Godland" (2023). 

Here for the second time: Teemu Nikki ("Euthanizer", Finland 2018), Jafar Panahi ("The White Balloon",  Iran 1995), Tarik Saleh (the shortlisted "Boy From Heaven", Sweden 2022) and Petra Volpe ("The Divine Order", Switzerland 2017)

Of the 19 countries, 10 have won the Oscar, 6 have been nominated and just 3 never nominated (or even shortlisted). Portugal still holds the world record for most submissions without any sort of mention. 

Most Notable Omissions:  

There were tons of films that could have been here but probably none was more unlucky than Norway's "Dreams (Sex Love") the Berlinale Golden Bear winner, and the third film in Dag Johan Haugerud's trilogy. In any other year, it would have represented Norway....but with "Sentimental Value" the Oscar frontrunner (just barely), Haugerud was shortlisted by Norway but not chosen for the fourth time since 2012.  "On Becoming a Guinea Fowl" was widely expected to represent the UK since its Cannes premiere in 2024....but it didn't get released in the UK until November 2024 and lost momentum. Also out early was "Nouvelle Vague", Richard Linklater's French-language homage to Jean-Luc Godard, which managed a Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes (Comedy) and was shortlisted by France....but lost out to another non-French director. 

Also out: animated film "Arco" (France), Alejandro Amenábar's "The Captive" (Spain), Netflix drama "The Children's Train" (Italy), "Deaf" (Spain), "Hanami" (which was shortlisted by both Portugal and Switzerland), James Franco's "Hey Joe" (Italy), Mads Mikkelsen's "The Last Viking" (Denmark), "Our Girls" (Netherlands), Jodie Foster's "A Private Life" (France), "Souleymane's Story" (France), Amazon Prime war film "Der Tiger" (Germany), "The Ugly Stepsister" (Norway), and "The Village Next to Paradise" (Austria).  

On a side note, more than half the Western European countries (10 to be exact) now regularly announce their lists of finalists prior to revealing their official Oscar candidate so we actually know who their runner-ups are. Of these ten, seven are competitive (Denmark, France, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), while three (Germany, Italy, Netherlands) announce all registered candidates. 

Most Famous Face:  Hmmm....Probably the cast of "Sentimental Value"....Stellan Skarsgård, Renate Reinsve and Elle Fanning....though Leonie Benesch, Sope Dirisu and Sergi López should also look familiar to cinephiles. 

Last Year’s Race: I saw 18/19 Western European submissions last year...."Segundo Premio" (Spain) was surprisingly impossible to find anywhere with English subtitles and although I speak Spanish I couldn't be bothered to watch it without them. 

As usual, there were some great films in this group, especially "Touch" (A) and "Kneecap" (A), which were both deservedly shortlisted and criminally not nominated, and the heartbreaking comedy  from the Netherlands, "Memory Lane" (A), which didn't even make the shortlist. 

I loved the hot mess of "Emilia Perez" (A-), which was entertaining and fun though I can't understand how anyone would think it deserved a Best Picture nomination, with Switzerland's "Queens" (A-) rounding out my Top 5. 

Also seen: "Santosh" (UK; B+), "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Germany; B+),"Castillo" (Malta; B+), "The Last Journey" (Sweden; B+), "Devil's Bath" (Austria; B), "The Girl with the Needle" (Denmark; B), "Vermiglio" (Italy; B-), "Murderess" (Greece; B-), "Armand" (Norway; C+), "Family Time" (Finland; C+), "Julie Keeps Quiet" (Denmark; C) and Portugal bringing up the rear with the mindless, plotless "Grand Tour" (D+). 

2026 International Oscar Submissions- The Films from Asia and the Pacific (22 films)

The shortlist comes out Monday so let's take a look at the largest (sort of) and most interesting group....the films from the Asia-Pacific region. The Asia-Pacific countries submitted 22 films (possibly a record?) but five of them somehow ended up disqualified by AMPAS, leaving us with only 17. I saw twelve out of 22, which were mostly very good.... 

I'd like to take a moment to highlight China and India this year....China and India have enormous film industries that produce a lot of wonderful films but their selection committees are notorious for making ridiculous (often downright laughable) choices. Thank you to both committees for sending strong films for the first time in years! Even if neither film makes the shortlist in this extremely competitive year, both countries will do well in future if they keep sending films like these.  

Here are mini-reviews of the twelve films that I've see....This is a good group. The top five could potentially make my own personal shortlist: 

BEST OF THE REGION:

KYRGYZSTAN- "Black Red Yellow" "Black Red Yellow", the first Kyrgyz film ever to win Best Film at a Class-A film festival (Shanghai 2025), is a story of star-crossed lovers living in a small conservative village. Told in three somewhat slow-moving chapters, their story forms the basis of a (rather chaste) village soap opera. I've always felt that Kyrgyzstan consistently sends some of the best dramas, which sadly have never been recognized by Oscar. "Black Red Yellow" intertwines Kyrgyz cultural traditions like carpetmaking into its heartbreaking story. But it's so obscure and small.....and also a bit slow-moving. Variety compares the style to Edward Yang and Yasujiro Ozu....two directors whose works are way too slow for me. But I thought "Black Red Yellow" was charming....and I love when a movie's ending so perfectly explains its beginning (no spoilers). 

TAJIKISTAN- "Black Rabbit, White Rabbit" Although Tajikistan's "Black Rabbit, White Rabbit" was mysteriously disqualified, this "magical realism" drama focusing on a number of intersecting stories set around a "film-within-a-film" is funny, quirky, original and weird. Conservative Iran and (relatively) liberal Tajikistan largely share the same spoken language (Farsi and Tajik are written in different alphabets but are mostly the same in spoken speech) which means that Iranian directors like Shahram Mokri can go to Tajikistan and make films without Islamic censorship rules and still work in the Persian language. In fact, three of Tajikistan's four Oscar submissions were directed by Iranians. "Black Rabbit, White Rabbit" is difficult to explain. Imagine David Lynch's "Mulholland Drive" but set in Tajikistan, with a very playful sense of humor. Scenes and dialogues repeat themselves....The "intersecting stories" have very different tones, careening from comedy to drama to thriller to fantasy. Sometimes you're not sure what's going on. I usually hate that...but with "Black Rabbit" you're happy to just go along for the ride. And, unlike "Mulholland Drive", it sort of makes sense by the end of the film. Charming. 

INDIA- "Homebound" With Martin Scorsese as executive producer and now streaming on Netflix, I think "Homebound" is going to make the shortlist. The film festival synopsis implies that "Homebound" is about two friends who are trying to get into the police academy. But that's really just the first 20 minutes (sort of....) This is a film about why modern-day India is the way it is. It's about how Indian youth see their future. It's about dignity, it's about caste, it's about what it's like for religious minorities.....It's about who has what opportunities...And in the second half, we learn the film is actually about something else. I've lived in South Asia and I understand more now after watching "Homebound". A film reviewer once said Iranian films were both interesting and challenging because characters often make decisions that were natural for Iranians but difficult to understand or justify for Western viewers. I frequently thought of this during "Homebound" but it brings home the fact that differences in values systems and attitudes to family, country and societal expectations would naturally lead characters to make different decisions than we would. And isn't that a reason to go to the movies? It's available on Netflix. 

 

MONGOLIA- "Silent City Driver"

AUSTRALIA- "The Wolves Always Come at Night"

Bravo Mongolia. This nation of 3.5 million people had the best Asian film in the competition last year and this year, two beautiful Mongolian-language films are in my Top 5. If only all of these films weren't so sad! 

The grimly beautiful "Silent City Driver" deservedly won the Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival in 2024 for its story of two sad souls - a hearse driver who has just been released from prison, and a young woman presumably doing sex work.  It's one of those films where the less you know, the better but it does have one of the most memorable and shocking endings of the year. "The Wolves Always Come at Night" is a documentary in the style of "The Story of the Weeping Camel" in that the nomadic family really does seem to be part of the filmmaking (the couple is credited as screenwriters) and its always unclear where the line is between fiction and reality. The first half follows a family happily living a nomadic existence, but facing increasingly difficult environmental conditions due to climate change. When most of their livestock is killed, they reluctantly move to the city. The second half, which is somewhat less successful, follows their adjustment to living in "modern" Mongolia, as part of a slum-like gathering of gers. The access the Australian director got is nothing short of incredible. It's available for free on BBC iPlayer if you are in the UK or have a UK VPN. 

And here's the rest: 

CAMBODIA- "Tenement" A spooky Cambodian-Japanese horror flick set in a decrepit Cambodian apartment building ...and you can clearly see the influences from both J-Horror and Southeast Asian horror (and also - am I wrong? - "Rosemary's Baby"?). In the film, a young Cambodian woman and her Japanese boyfriend visit her distant relatives in Phnom Penh that her mother never mentioned....in what quickly turns out to be a cursed and/or haunted building. There are some moments of horror brilliance ....Without spoilers, there is the traditional Cambodian dancer, dancing alone in her apartment....and the opening possession scene.....If only the film made sense! There's a lot of interesting background story here but very little is explained and one gets the sense that it all really does does have a point deep, deep down.....Anyway it's an enjoyable horror movie that Oscar voters probably would have hated. I'd love to see what the directors come up with next. Now available on Amazon. 

HONG KONG- "The Last Dance" I'm shocked that the highest-grossing HK film of all-time is this quiet family drama about Taoist funeral traditions and not some Jackie Chan martial arts movie. But there it is. "The Last Dance" follows three main characters- an aging, conservative Taoist priest who specializes in funeral rites, his daughter (a paramedic) with whom he's always had a contentious relationship because of Taoist attitudes towards women, and a wedding planner who switches to funerals when his business goes bust during COVID-19. This is a good movie! But it sometimes moves awkwardly between its three main characters, and the running time is a bit too long (like most of this year's Asian films....).  But it's solid. Now available on AppleTV. 

INDONESIA- "Sore, Wife From the Future" Based on a successful web series, this Indonesian film combines "Groundhog Day", "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind", "Sleepless in Seattle" and Korean soap operas for an entertaining romp through Croatian scenery and time travel. Jonathan is an Indonesian photographer living a seemingly happy life in Croatia (why Croatia? well, that's explained later) when he is confronted by Sore, a woman who claims to be his soulmate visiting from the future. The film starts off as a light comedy and gradually veers towards more serious drama. I can see why this film would be a box-office hit at home but it's probably too much of a genre mix for the Oscars. But it's a fun film to watch and think about. Extra points for a rather brilliant editing sequence in the film's finale. 

KAZAKHSTAN- "Cadet" This Kazakh horror-drama was disqualified due to a conflict of interest (one of the film's main crew members was also on Kazakhstan's Oscar selection committee). It's an interesting film about a female teacher who gets a job at a strict military school where she tries to enroll her oft-bullied, feminine-looking son...who is also the illegitimate son of a high-ranking military official. The military school is possibly haunted and a number of students and teachers begin to die mysterious and incredibly violent deaths.  The film is most successful when it leans into its horror elements. 

PAPUA NEW GUINEA- "Papa Buka" First of all, it was a great pleasure to see Papua New Guinea on screen for the first time. This film was PNG's first Oscar submission and it was disqualified for unknown reasons. Directed by an Indian director and starring two Indian actors, it's about two Indian historians who travel to PNG with a local driver/translator and an elderly guide to learn about the forgotten role of Indian soldiers who served with British troops in PNG during World War II. "Papa Buka" was clearly made with love by a debut director...and the film makes good use of PNG's beautiful jungle scenery. But the screenplay is a bit of a mess.  

SINGAPORE- "Stranger Eyes" I had heard bad things about Singapore's "Stranger Eyes"....but it's actually a fascinating little film with a lot to say about surveillance in modern-day society, including  CCTV (a big issue in nanny state Singapore), attention-seeking influencers on social media and the pervasive use of camera phones that can film anyone, anywhere. A young Taiwanese couple in Singapore are desperate to solve the mystery of their missing 1-year old daughter, who vanishes from a playground while her young father was on his cell phone. Soon after, they begin to receive DVDs (remember Michael Haneke's "Cache"?) with recordings of their daily lives....both before and after the disappearance of their child. Unlike "Cache", "Stranger Eyes" actually solves its mysteries and makes you think....though it all goes on way too long. If you want to see the best version of this plot, try Visar Morina's "Exile" which represented Kosovo a few years ago. Now available on Amazon. 

TAIWAN- "Left-Handed Girl" A Taiwanese family drama with a Netflix deal that has been lobbying so hard for a shortlist spot that it will probably get it. This is a sweet family drama about a struggling single mom and her two daughters- an aimless 19-year old and a sweet precocious 6-year old - in Taipei. I don't think it's quite good enough for a nomination but it's done well with precursors....and in the end we learn that the film has a twist that matches a previous Oscar submission from Central Europe....though I won't say which one. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 22

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 28

Number of Debuts: 1 (Papua New Guinea)

Number of Countries That Made It Past AMPAS: 17

Who’s Missing?: The most surprising absence is PAKISTAN since they submit almost every year….but  they had a very weak year so it wasn't a big shock. I assume they'll be back next year. NEW ZEALAND has only sent one film since 2018 (they had a very strong contender last year but didn't bother to enter) and AFGHANISTAN hasn't sent a film since the Taliban takeover. 

Four more countries- FIJI, LAOS, SRI LANKA and UZBEKISTAN- have only entered once or twice so it was no surprise they aren't here. 

FRONTRUNNERS: 

1. SOUTH KOREA- "No Other Choice" (Letterboxd: 4.2) 

This jet-black comedy by an internationally beloved director and recognizable star has nailed a number of important precursors since its big Venice premiere...and the Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globe (in addition to Best Foreign Film and Best Actor) just locked it for the shortlist. It's almost certain to be one of the five nominees too....and I can't wait to see it. 

RUNNER-UPS:                

2. INDIA- "Homebound" (4.0)

3. TAIWAN- "Left-Handed Girl" (3.9)

4. THAILAND- "A Useful Ghost" (3.7)

I already discussed "Homebound" and "Left-Handed Girl" in detail above. "Homebound" is the superior film so I'm ranking it slightly higher...but both of them will probably make the shortlist because they have the backing of Scorsese (India) and Netflix (Taiwan). That shouldn't matter but it does. 

As for Thailand....I'm sad we'll never know! This Cannes award-winning film about a possessed vacuum cleaner does not look like the sort of film that gets Oscar attention. But everyone who sees it says it's a special and memorable film. Apparently they filled out their documents late and AMPAS disqualified the film instead of asking for whatever was missing...even though Thailand has reliably been sending films for over thirty years and hasn't missed a year since 1999. 

DARK HORSES:

  

5. JAPAN- "Kokuho" (3.9)

6. CHINA- "Dead to Rights" (3.8)

7. PHILIPPINES- "Magellan" (3.7)

These three films are praying for a miracle. They probably won't make the Final 15....but one of them could. But which?

Japan's "Kokuho" is the highest-grossing live-action Japanese film of all time in Japan, and reviews have largely been very, very positive. It's a sumptuous three-hour look at kabuki theatre that would win a slew of tech Oscar nominations if it was in English, and it will definitely come close to the Top 15. Maybe it will even get that 15th spot? But it's very long (the longest of any film on the list this year) and very Japanese and it doesn't seem to have the backers that many of the other top contenders have. Its US distributor (GKids) primarily deals with anime and the film seems to have lost buzz since its Cannes debut but it definitely has a chance. 

Though they sent some great films in the 1990s and 2000s, China is rarely in the top tier anymore. They haven't sent a great film in years. But they are definitely in the running this year with "Dead to Rights", a film about the 1937 Nanking Massacre perpetrated by Japanese troops in the early days of WWII (before it came to Europe). Though the film probably won't make the shortlist, I'm confident it will place very well. 

And then there's the Philippines, still hoping for their first-ever shortlist spot after decades of trying. 16th costume drama "Magellan", about the famous Portuguese explorer who was killed in the Philippines, has starpower, high production values and international backers, and that's what the Philippines is usually lacking. Reviews are good and the film could make it if Gael Garcia Bernal and friends get people to watch it.....However, Laz Diaz is an acquired taste and I suspect the film will miss out in such an incredibly competitive year (there are basically six "locks", with everyone else fighting for the nine other slots). I read that one well-connected critic said that she attended a screening of a 3-hour Asian Oscar submission and everyone was so bored but couldn't leave....Most people suspected it was "Kokuho" but I think it was "Magellan". 

In any case, I havent' seen any of these three to judge for myself. 

A STRONG FINISH:

8. MONGOLIA- "Silent City Driver" (3.5)

9. AUSTRALIA- "The Wolves Always Come At Night" (3.6)

10. TAJIKISTAN- "Black Rabbit, White Rabbit" (3.5)

11. BANGLADESH- "A House Named Shahana" (approx 3.5)

12. KYRGYZSTAN- "Black Red Yellow" (3.2)

So I saw four of these five (reviewed above) and loved all four. Two (Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia) won important film festivals but I think all four of them are just too small to compete. 

I haven't seen feminist drama "A House Named Shahana" yet, although I'd certainly love to. This is the story of a progressive woman living her life in a conservative religious community and I've heard it's one of the best movies to come out of Bangladesh in the past decade. 

MID-RANKED: 

 

13. HONG KONG- "The Last Dance" (3.6)

14. INDONESIA- "Sore, Wife from the Future" (4.1)

15. BHUTAN- "I, the Song" (3.3)

16. MALAYSIA- "Pavane for an Infant" (3.4)

17. SINGAPORE- "Stranger Eyes" (3.1)

I've discussed Hong Kong (solid but unremarkable), Indonesia (cute and entertaining) and Singapore (overlong with weak reviews even though I liked it) above. 

"Pavane for an Infant", the second Chinese-language film in a row to represent Malaysia was the very last film to be announced. In fact, Malaysia's film body FINAS made no official announcement, unlike other countries who proudly have press conferences and social media posts to promote their film. That doesn't bode well. This film about a "baby hatch" center that deals with babies abandoned by their mothers is one of the more obscure entries on the list. Reviews are good but no one is talking about it, and their own country hasn't bothered to promote it. 

Bhutan has sent "I, the Song", an intriguing mystery about a Bhutanese teacher who learns that a woman who looks absolutely identical to her is making pornographic videos on the Internet. It's a fascinating concept and Bhutan is one of those little countries whose submissions are always great. But reviews haven't been as strong as "Monk & the Gun" or "Lunana" (both of which were shortlisted) so it's probably not going to make it. But I hope it gets a streaming release soon.  

NO CHANCE: 

18. VIETNAM- "Red Rain" (3.4)

19. KAZAKHSTAN- "Cadet" (3.2)

20. NEPAL- "Anjila" (2.8)

21. CAMBODIA- "Tenement" (2.9)

22. PAPUA NEW GUINEA- "Papa Buka" (2.6)

I've already gone into the reasons why Cambodia (genre bias/confusing story), Kazakhstan (genre bias/interesting but flawed film) and Papua New Guinea (disastrous screenplay/lack of resources) weren't going to do well....But they got disqualified so it doesn't matter. 

Nepal and Vietnam aren't likely to have much more luck. Nepal's sports drama "Anjila" is a biopic of a female football player (Anjila Tumbapo Subba) who inspired the nation (and the athlete plays herself) but the film is supposed to be a crowdpleasing but not necessarily well-made film. It will probably play better in Nepal than it will overseas. "Red Rain" is a patriotic Vietnam War movie directed by a former Vietnamese soldier telling the story of a famous battle from the Vietnamese Communist perspective. I've heard this film is well-made but also extremely nationalistic and (possibly) a bit propaganda-ish? ....I'll need to see the film myself but this sort of film isn't likely to resonate with U.S. audiences....

FUN FACTS:

Genres:       One documentary (Australia), two horror films (Cambodia and Kazakhstan), two genre-bending comedies (Korea and Thailand). Four more are dramas that lean heavily on mystery (Bhutan & Singapore) and/or fantasy (Indonesia & Tajikistan) elements. 

I’ve Already Seen: I’ve seen twelve of the 22 films- Australia, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Taiwan and Tajikistan. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: It's a tie between Korea and the disqualified entry from Thailand. I'm pretty sure I will love both.  

Number I Predicted Correctly:  I'm pretty impressed! I got 11 out of 22 correct (Australia, Bhutan, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand)....plus I predicted "A House Named Shahana" for Bangladesh last year when I thought it was eligible. 

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin-       Kazakhstan

·        Cannes-     India, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand

·        Sundance-  None

·        Venice-       Korea, Singapore

Women Directors- 6 out of 22 films (27%) were directed or co-directed by women - Gabrielle Brady (Australia), Sokyou Chea (Cambodia), Đặng Thái Huyền (Vietnam), Leesa Gazi (Bangladesh), Dechen Roder (Bhutan) and Tsou Shih-Ching (Taiwan). Gazi and Roder are the first women ever to represent their countries in the competition. 

Oldest and Youngest Directors- Well, the youngest was 30-year old Inrasothythep Neth from Cambodia....but he was disqualified so it's Yandy Laurens, 36, from Indonesia. The senior director of the group is Aktan Arym Kubat of Kyrgyztan, who is 68. 

Languages – We have five films mostly in Chinese. I believe the films from China, Singapore and Taiwan are mostly in Mandarin and the ones from Hong Kong and Malaysia are mostly in Cantonese...but I'm not sure. We also have two (!) entirely in Mongolian (Australia and Mongolia), and one each in Bengali, Dzongkha, Hindi, Indonesian, Japanese, Kazakh, Khmer, Korean, Kyrgyz, Nepali, Tajik, Thai and Vietnamese. 

Multi-lingualism is a major plot point in the other two films, from Papua New Guinea (Tok Pisin, Hindi, Bengali and English) and the Philippines (Portuguese, Spanish and Tagalog).  

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Six? It would be seven if Thailand hadn't been kicked out of the race. 

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- The Philippines....but that's unlikely. 

Buzziest Films: Obviously Korea's "No Other Choice". 

Letterboxd Ratings (as of  December 10, 2025):      Best:  Korea (4.2), Worst: Papua New Guinea (2.6)

Dumbest Decision:  As I said, the Asian countries did an amazing job picking films this year! Almost everyone really did the best job with what they had to choose from. Only tiny Nepal made a highly questionable decision.....and that was reflected in the controversy that resulted when they picked "Anjila". And Indonesia's decision wasn't dumb....but I think they misjudged the tastes of the Academy in a very strong film year for Indonesia.  

Controversies and Changes: The biggest "controversy" came from Nepal where an uproar erupted over the selection of "Anjila". I haven't seen "Anjila" or its rivals but it seems like both sides blew the matter out of proportion. Nepal's selection was done in a rushed manner (in previous years they allowed a longer submission period for filmmakers interested in submitting their films) and it happened at a time when the country was facing political turmoil, protests and Internet outages. But the producers of "Anjila" did get their paperwork in on time and Nepal did eventually agree to extend the deadline. Allegations from "Anjila" that rival films were publicly trying to bribe the selection committee were based on sarcastic social media posts that were clearly in jest. In the end, "Anjila" was not the best-reviewed Nepali film of the year but it's what their committee chose. 

An attention-seeking Vietnamese-American politician in California called on the Academy to disqualify Vietnam's entry because....er.....he didn't like it? (actually I'm fairly certain he's never seen it). Referring to it as "Communist propaganda", he wrote a letter to AMPAS asking that it be withdrawn (it wasn't).  

This may be the first year in history when India's pick was not particularly controversial at home though "India Today" chose to write an editorial about how it was the "wrong pick" (it wasn't) and there was the usual grumbling and complaining from those who were jealous and/or who will never be happy. 

Also controversial were the mysterious disqualifications of five of the films. Kazakhstan and Thailand issued statements confirming the disqualifications. Kazakhstan had a crew member of "Cadet" on it selection committee in violation of AMPAS rules, while Thailand apparently didn't get its paperwork in on time due to some unspecified misunderstanding with the film's international distributor. I've heard rumors that Tajikistan had some obscure copyright issue problem. No idea about Cambodia and Papua New Guinea....

Oscar History: 

Six of these directors have been in the Oscar race before. Aktan Arym Kubat, Kyrgyzstan's most accomplish national filmmaker, has been chosen for the sixth time, following "Beshkempir" (1998), "The Chimp" (2001), "The Light Thief" (2010), "Centaur" (2017) and "This is What I Remember" (2023). I've seen all six and I think his movies just keep getting better and better. "Black Red Yellow" is my favorite. 

Back for a second time: Lav Diaz ("Norte, the End of History", 2014), Lee Sang-il ("Hula Girls", 2006), Park Chan-wook ("Decision to Leave", 2022), Yeo Siew Hua ("A Land Imagined", 2019) and Adilkhan Yerzhanov ("Yellow Cat", 2021). It's hard to believe Park Chan-wook hasn't been picked more often!  

Of the 22 countries competing, three have won the Oscar (Japan, Korea and Taiwan), nine have been nominated (Australia, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Kazakhstan, Nepal and Vietnam) and one shortlisted (Thailand). The others are still waiting....though one Mongolian Oscar submission ("The Story of the Weeping Camel") did notably get nominated in Best Documentary Feature.  

Most Notable Omissions:  

  

Even though the Asian countries made smart decisions, there were still a number of strong films that didn't go through due to the "one film per country" rule. 

"Sunshine", about a pregnant gymnast, took the Philippines to Berlin, got a Netflix deal and had a lot of domestic support....but the race for the Philippines was too competitive this year. Takeshi Miike's twisty courtroom thriller "Sham" was probably the closest the prolific horror director has ever gotten to representing Japan at the Oscars. And China's biggest box-office hit in history- animated sequel "Ne Zha 2" - was predicted by many to represent China...but they made a more serious (and better) choice. 

A fourth notable film- "Saba", about a woman caring for her aging mother- got some of the most extensive festival play ever for a Bangladeshi film, including Toronto and Busan...but lost at the last minute when "A House Named Shahana" (another acclaimed film) arranged a last minute release in local cinemas. 

Also out: "Blood Brothers: Dragon’s Embers" (Malaysia), "Flat Girls" (Thailand), "Harbin" (Korea), "Living the Land" (China), "Love in the Big City" (Korea), "Mongol" (Mongolia),  "Papa" (Hong Kong), "Pooja Sir" (Nepal), "Renoir" (Japan), Jackie Chan's "The Shadow's Edge" (China) and "Yen & Ai-Lee" (Taiwan). 

Most Famous Face:  The gold medal goes to Gael Garcia Bernal ("Magellan"), the silver goes to Oscar nominee Ken Watanabe ("Kokuho") and the bronze goes to Lee Byung-hun ("No Other Choice"). 

Last Year’s Race: I saw 17/20 entries last year, failing to see the candidates from China (which was disqualified), Vietnam (which was supposed to be terrible) and Kyrgyzstan (which was supposed to be well-made but too religious for an American audience). 

My favorite by far was Mongolia's "If Only I Could Hibernate" (A-), a coming-of-age drama about a bright young teen forced to take care of his siblings at the expense of his education. The Mongolian Academy initially refused to send this to the Oscars and I'm so happy they did. Three films from Southeast Asia were my runner-ups: Philippines, a very topical documentary about the importance of fighting for democracy that I'm sure resonated with American viewers....Malaysia's sad prison drama "Abang Adik", and the shortlisted "How to Make Millions" from Thailand, which I found fairly predictable but still entertaining. 

Most of the rest of the Asian submissions last year were "good" but flawed. India ("Lost Ladies") and Singapore ("La Luna") were very entertaining but very lightweight comedies that felt out of place at the Oscars. Kazakhstan ("Bauryna Salu") and Nepal ("Shambhala") were beautifully observed dramas but often very, very slow.  Taiwan ("Old Fox") was well-made but forgettable. I give them all a B+.  

Cambodia, Japan, Taiwan (B+), Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Pakistan, Tajikistan (B), Indonesia (B-) and South Korea (D-).