And here are the Western European films that traditionally dominate the Oscar shortlist. They got eight out of 15 spots on the shortlist the past two years. This year, their contenders are slightly weaker but they'll probably still get at least six or seven.
I managed to see 10 of the 19 candidates....plus the film that rightfully should be the 20th candidate on the list- the charming screwball comedy "Ciao Ciao" from Malta. "Ciao Ciao" was one of my favorite films from this season and it was the only candidate that answered Malta's open call for submissions....It's better than most of Malta's previous submissions but the tiny island nation's Producers Association decided not to take advantage of this excellent opportunity to promote their national cinema. "Ciao Ciao" will represent Malta at the AFI European Union Film Festival in the U.S.
Unfortunately, I haven't seen the three front-runners (France, Norway, Spain) but here are my reviews:
BEST OF THE REGION:
DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Against Putin" The best of this year's documentaries is "Mr. Nobody Against Putin", filmed in secret (sort of) at a school in central Russia, to expose the militarization of the Russian education system following the invasion of Ukraine. Made by a Russian videographer employed at a local high school and an American filmmaker based in Denmark, "Putin" shows how the Russian government is adding disinformation to its high-school curricula and drafting boys straight out of high-school in provincial Russia....who don't always come home...... Daringly original and sometimes downright frightening....it simultaneously serves as a cautionary tale for an increasingly fascist America. I just hope the teachers and students featured in the film are safe.
SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift" A fast-paced drama about one night in the life of a hard-working nurse dealing with a series of patients in two understaffed wards. German actress Leonie Benesch ("Teacher's Lounge") creates a thoroughly sympathetic character. I thought this was excellent. It was an early frontrunner but seems to have lost momentum.
THE REST: (in order)
MALTA- "Ciao Ciao" A comedy told in three acts...."Ciao Ciao" starts off as a 1930s screwball comedy about two feuding couples at a dinner party, except with witty 2025 dialogue. Chapter Two starts off as a Richard Linklater romance before we manage to connect this story to the first. Chapter Three veers more into mystery territory and the less you know the better. This is a charming first feature film that's tons of fun, and manages to look great even though it was made on a spare $60K budget. People who know a little bit about Malta (I've been there and know a little about the political/economic situation) will appreciate the film even more but this is a really entertaining film and it's a crime that it won't be in the race. Do I think it would be nominated? No, it doesn't have anyone lobbying for it. But it's a lot of fun. Try and find it.
AUSTRIA- "Peacock" This is a pretty special little film that starts off as a comedy about Matthias, a man with a job as a super-elite “rent-a-friend” (yes, this is a real thing!). It ends up….hmmm….well, it ends up not as a comedy….and yet it still is very, very funny. I’ve heard people compare "Peacock" to a Ruben Ostlund film….and I see what they mean because it’s cerebral and makes you think….but I don’t really like Ostlund and I think Bernhard Wenger is a better director. Matthias, who has virtually lost any sense of self and identity by immersing himself in his “roles” somehow ends up being one of this season’s most lovable main characters despite literally having no personality. It’s slightly slow at times….but still manages to be one of the more memorable entries this year.
GREENLAND- "Walls - Akinni Inuk" Documentaries about real people sometimes struggle to tell a complete story because real people's lives usually don’t have a “cinematic ending”. And yet this spare 75-minute documentary tells a complete, compact story about a seemingly ordinary Greenlandic woman serving an indefinite sentence in jail for two serious violent crimes. I’m usually not the right audience for prison films (the underrated “In the Heart of the Machine” is an exception) but “Walls” is an effective story of female friendship (between the prisoner and the director…there’s hardly a single man seen during the film’s running time), fate and Greenlandic societal problems. This is a small and simple film but it's enormously effective.
SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic" This is a very effective political conspiracy thriller set in Susi's Egypt....where it will surely be banned and never seen. Fares Fares plays a popular actor who is blackmailed by the Egyptian dictatorship - he must play the lead role in a sycophantic biopic about the President, or else his life, his son's life and his mistress' life will all get much worse. If he does the job? Money, fame and connections....and also a ruined career and reputation. Considering that Tarik Saleh's earlier "Boy From Heaven" made the shortlist, I've been surprised that "Eagles" hasn't gotten very good reviews even though I think it's probably the superior film.
FINLAND- "100 Litres of Gold" I’ve heard people giving Finland flack for choosing hangover comedy “100 Litres of Gold” for the Oscars but this is a wild and enjoyable ride about two sisters who promise to make 100 liters of their nationally famous traditional liquor (sahti) for the wedding of their third sister. When they accidentally binge drink all 100 liters in one night, they have to get beg, buy and steal enough sahti for the wedding taking place later that day….The film is at its best when it goes all-in for "Hangover"-type humor....and when it suddenly turns serious at the end. For a lot of the film, it wobbles halfway between these two....but it's always fun....though unlikely to appeal to conservative Oscar voters.
IRELAND- "Sanatorium" This is a sweet little documentary about a once-grand Soviet sanatorium (a sort of health spa) in Ukraine that was struggling to survive even before Russia invaded the country in 2022. We meet the staff, the doctors, the manager and some guests (all domestic tourists from Ukraine since foreigners are too afraid to come). It features a mostly charming cast of characters and shows how Ukrainians are trying to continue enjoying life despite the hardships of war. But other than the war lurking in the background, this is a light film that won’t be able to compete with the other documentaries.
LUXEMBOURG- "Hors d'haleine" (Breathing Underwater) Luxembourg rejoins the Oscar race with this well-acted but mostly forgettable film about a pregnant middle-class woman who checks herself into a shelter for battered women.
PORTUGAL- "Banzo" For the first hour, this Portuguese costume drama is an intriguing melodrama set in a 19th century Portuguese cocoa plantation on the tiny African island of Principe. Although slavery is technically illegal, Portuguese colonialists have "imported" Mozambican laborers who have in reality been kidnapped from their villages thousands of miles from the island. Many of these laborers develop a sickness ("banzo") in which they (understandably) lose the will to live. While the film is a bit slow and langurous (like all Portuguese films), the film looks absolutely gorgeous and deals with interesting issues of race and colonialism that are still relevant today. The second half of the film changes its setting from the plantation to another part of the island, loses several of its interesting characters and mostly stops making sense. But Principe still looks pretty!
NETHERLANDS- "Reedland" A slow-moving murder mystery where you won't particularly care whodunnit.
LOCKED FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. NORWAY- "Sentimental Value" (Letterboxd: 4.2)
2. FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident" (4.0)
3. SPAIN- "Sirat" (3.6)
Most people believe that this year's Oscar winner will either be Cannes Palme d'Or winner "It Was Just An Accident" from Iran France or Cannes Jury Prize winner "Sentimental Value". Both films are in the Best Picture conversation, have great reviews from critics and have hit all of the precursors. They're both in.
They'll surely be joined by trippy desert rave drama "Sirat" whose Golden Globe nomination nailed down its spot for the shortlist. I haven't seen "Sirat" (or the other two frontrunners) yet but it's much more divisive than the other two. It's not certain to make it to the Final Five but it's sure to make the shortlist.
VERY LIKELY
4. DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Against Putin" (3.9)
5. UNITED KINGDOM- "My Father's Shadow" (3.9)
It's always foolish to bet against Denmark - they've made the shortlist eight of the past ten years...That's better than any other country. "Putin", as noted above, is one of the best films on the list and I think it will really resonate with voters to get the unofficial "Documentary" spot on the shortlist.
As for "My Father's Shadow"....the UK has been shortlisted two years in a row as lobbying becomes more important. "Shadow", about a father and his two sons in Nigeria, has gotten great reviews although I'm confused why it's here as I've heard it's mostly in English. There was a rule change made a few years ago that films in Pidgin English or Creoles are allowed to compete if a native English speaker would require English subtitles to understand....but "Shadow" was accepted by AMPAS so I guess it's okay?
DARK HORSES
6. SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift" (3.9)
7. GERMANY- "The Sound of Falling" (3.6)
8. ICELAND- "The Love That Remains" (3.6)
Period drama "Sound of Falling", about several generations of women living in the same rural home over various different time periods, is considered to be one of the favorites for the shortlist. But everyone I know says the film is difficult, overlong and boring. I predict it will be a surprise snub. But I'm probably wrong.
"Late Shift" is a really excellent film and it was the first film announced to represent Western Europe. It was considered a frontrunner a few months ago but I think that the early announcement hurt its momentum. Still it would be a deserving choice. "The Love That Remains", an Icelandic drama about a couple getting a divorce, is going to be on the bubble. Director Hlynur Palmason made the shortlist for "Godland" (which I thought was overrated) and this film looks more accessible. I think it will just miss.
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
9. SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic" (3.4)
10. ITALY- "Familia" (3.4)
11. AUSTRIA- "Peacock" (3.5)
12. BELGIUM- "Young Mothers" (3.4)
These four films have their fans but there's too much competition for them to make the shortlist this year. If I hadn't read the reviews, I would rank "Eagles" a lot higher. I think it's more accessible than "Boy From Heaven" which got a surprise shortlist spot a few years ago. But reviews haven't been as good. I'd love to be proven wrong about quirky comedy "Peacock", one of this year's more original entries but nobody is talking about it as a contender even though it's one of the few entries already available on streaming in the United States.
"Young Mothers" was mentioned as an early favorite but this category has never picked a Dardennes movie (not even for "Two Days, One Night", which was only nominated for Best Actress) and "Young Mothers" is not considered to be one of their strongest films.
Lastly, we have "Familia" from Italy, which has been shortlisted three of the past four years, including last year for the dull village drama "Vermiglio". That bodes well for "Familia" but this is film, about a family headed by an abusive toxic patriarch, has very little buzz, awards or critical praise. Still, it has a chance.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY
MALTA- "Ciao Ciao"
13. PORTUGAL- "Banzo" (3.4)
14. GREENLAND- "Walls - Akinni Inuk" (3.4)
15. LUXEMBOURG- "Breathing Underwater" (3.5)
I've already gone over these four films above. "Ciao Ciao" from Malta wasn't actually submitted and "Banzo" from Portugal has the production values but not the reviews (and, of course, Portugal is never ever ever nominated). Greenlandic documentary "Walls" and Luxembourgian drama are extremely small films from extremely small countries but they will represent their countries proudly.
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR
16. FINLAND- "100 Liters of Gold" (3.3)
17. IRELAND- "Sanatorium" (3.6)
18. NETHERLANDS- "Reedland" (3.3)
19. GREECE- "Arcadia" (3.4)
"100 Litres of Gold" is tons of fun but isn't serious enough for this category. "Sanatorium" is too small and lightweight. I've read the reviews for Greece's "Arcadia", the one film from this group I haven't seen and I still can't understand what the film is about. Supposedly a weird supernatural mystery that "gets lost in its own ideas" according one review, this looks to be a non-starter. And lastly, the reviews for "Reedland" just aren't good enough.
FUN FACTS:
Genres: Three comedies (Austria, Finland, Norway), three documentaries (Denmark, Greenland, Ireland), three "thrillers" (France, Spain and Sweden) and ten "straight" dramas. But you could argue about this since many films straddle genres.
I’ve Already Seen: I’ve seen 9 of the 19 films- Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland - and plan to see Greenland this weekend.
Film I’m Most Excited To See Next: Definitely "It Was Just An Accident"
Number I Predicted Correctly: 8 out of 19....Belgium, Greece, Greenland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. And I should have gotten Malta right but they didn't send their one candidate.
Big Four Festivals:
· Berlin- Austria, Greece, Switzerland
· Cannes- More than half! Belgium (Best Screenplay), France (Palme d'Or), Germany (Jury Prize), Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway (Grand Prix; 2nd Place), Spain (Jury Prize), Sweden, United Kingdom (Camera d'Or, Special Mention)
· Sundance- Denmark
· Venice- None
Women Directors- Only four of 19 films (21%) are directed by women....That's the lowest rate of any of the five regions. We have Margarida Cardoso (Portugal), Mascha Schilinski (Germany), Petra Volpe (Switzerland), and the directing team of Sofie Rørdam and Nina Paninnguaq Skydsbjerg (Greenland)
Languages – We have three mostly in German (Austria, Germany and Switzerland), two mostly in French (Belgium, Luxembourg), plus one each in Arabic (Sweden), Dutch, Finnish, Greek, Greenlandic, Icelandic, Italian, Norwegian, Persian (France), Portuguese, Russian (Denmark), Spanish, Ukrainian (Ireland) and, allegedly, Pidgin English (UK)...though people have told me it's really a majority English film. A lot of films (Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway etc.) are multilingual.
How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Quite a few. Maybe nine?
Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Well....only Greenland, Luxembourg and Portugal have never been nominated and none are likely to be shortlisted this year. But theoretically? Portugal by default.
Buzziest Film: Dueling Cannes winners "It Was Just An Accident" and "Sentimental Value", followed by "Sirat".
Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 10, 2025): Best: Norway (4.2), Worst: Finland and the Netherlands (3.3)
Controversies and Changes: No huge controversies...although the fact that "My Father's Shadow" was allowed into the race despite allegedly being spoken mostly in standard English (I haven't seen the film to verify) could still yet cause controversy if it's shortlisted. The fact that France selected an Iranian film raised some eyebrows but didn't generate any serious problems. "Seed of the Sacred Fig" already set a precedent for films directed by Iranian exiles last year.
U.S. director (and Danish resident) David Borenstein is representing Denmark, showing that the oft-repeated rumor that American directors cannot compete here is untrue.
Twenty years ago, the films from Denmark, France, Ireland, Sweden and the UK might have been disqualified due to the now-canceled native language rule.
Oscar History:
The Dardenne brothers are representing Belgium for the fifth time - with no luck at all in this category - following "Rosetta", "The Son", "The Child" and "Two Days, One Night
Hlynur Palmason is representing Iceland for the third time following "A White, White Day" (2019) and the shortlisted "Godland" (2023).
Here for the second time: Teemu Nikki ("Euthanizer", Finland 2018), Jafar Panahi ("The White Balloon", Iran 1995), Tarik Saleh (the shortlisted "Boy From Heaven", Sweden 2022) and Petra Volpe ("The Divine Order", Switzerland 2017)
Of the 19 countries, 10 have won the Oscar, 6 have been nominated and just 3 never nominated (or even shortlisted). Portugal still holds the world record for most submissions without any sort of mention.
Most Notable Omissions:
There were tons of films that could have been here but probably none was more unlucky than Norway's "Dreams (Sex Love") the Berlinale Golden Bear winner, and the third film in Dag Johan Haugerud's trilogy. In any other year, it would have represented Norway....but with "Sentimental Value" the Oscar frontrunner (just barely), Haugerud was shortlisted by Norway but not chosen for the fourth time since 2012. "On Becoming a Guinea Fowl" was widely expected to represent the UK since its Cannes premiere in 2024....but it didn't get released in the UK until November 2024 and lost momentum. Also out early was "Nouvelle Vague", Richard Linklater's French-language homage to Jean-Luc Godard, which managed a Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes (Comedy) and was shortlisted by France....but lost out to another non-French director.
Also out: animated film "Arco" (France), Alejandro Amenábar's "The Captive" (Spain), Netflix drama "The Children's Train" (Italy), "Deaf" (Spain), "Hanami" (which was shortlisted by both Portugal and Switzerland), James Franco's "Hey Joe" (Italy), Mads Mikkelsen's "The Last Viking" (Denmark), "Our Girls" (Netherlands), Jodie Foster's "A Private Life" (France), "Souleymane's Story" (France), Amazon Prime war film "Der Tiger" (Germany), "The Ugly Stepsister" (Norway), and "The Village Next to Paradise" (Austria).
On a side note, more than half the Western European countries (10 to be exact) now regularly announce their lists of finalists prior to revealing their official Oscar candidate so we actually know who their runner-ups are. Of these ten, seven are competitive (Denmark, France, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), while three (Germany, Italy, Netherlands) announce all registered candidates.
Most Famous Face: Hmmm....Probably the cast of "Sentimental Value"....Stellan Skarsgård, Renate Reinsve and Elle Fanning....though Leonie Benesch, Sope Dirisu and Sergi López should also look familiar to cinephiles.
Last Year’s Race: I saw 18/19 Western European submissions last year...."Segundo Premio" (Spain) was surprisingly impossible to find anywhere with English subtitles and although I speak Spanish I couldn't be bothered to watch it without them.
As usual, there were some great films in this group, especially "Touch" (A) and "Kneecap" (A), which were both deservedly shortlisted and criminally not nominated, and the heartbreaking comedy from the Netherlands, "Memory Lane" (A), which didn't even make the shortlist.
I loved the hot mess of "Emilia Perez" (A-), which was entertaining and fun though I can't understand how anyone would think it deserved a Best Picture nomination, with Switzerland's "Queens" (A-) rounding out my Top 5.
Also seen: "Santosh" (UK; B+), "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Germany; B+),"Castillo" (Malta; B+), "The Last Journey" (Sweden; B+), "Devil's Bath" (Austria; B), "The Girl with the Needle" (Denmark; B), "Vermiglio" (Italy; B-), "Murderess" (Greece; B-), "Armand" (Norway; C+), "Family Time" (Finland; C+), "Julie Keeps Quiet" (Denmark; C) and Portugal bringing up the rear with the mindless, plotless "Grand Tour" (D+).
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