FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Sadly, the announcement isn't as exciting as it used to be....With the new rules, it's the films that get seen that make the shortlist. Even if every person assigned to, say, watch the film from Greenland ranks it #1, I don't think it would have enough votes to make the shortlist when four times as many people are watching films that have more backers. (witness "Bardo"). 

Films that have found celebrity backers to host screenings and back their cause have an advantage....Tom Cruise is supporting Japan, Jaime Foxx is supporting Egypt, and a whole bunch of 'Free Palestine' celebrities have lined up behind Tunisia. Sean Baker ("Anora") wrote the screenplay to "Left-Handed Girl", Martin Scorsese produced "Homebound" and Gael Garcia Bernal stars in "Magellan" (though that still probably won't make it!" So, the seven frontrunners that have mostly rocked the precursors (Brazil, France, Norway, Spain, Taiwan, Tunisia) and films that have studio or celebrity backing are likely to make it. The only shortlist shocker in the last few years was Armenia's "Amerikatsi"....but even that made sense when you realize the American director was based in Hollywood and appears to have been working his connections. 

Here goes....I've seen almost half the contenders but only seven (highlighted in yellow) that actually have a chance at the next round: 

PREDICTED SHORTLIST:

1. NORWAY- "Sentimental Value"

2. FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident"

3. BRAZIL- "Secret Agent"

4. KOREA- "No Other Choice"

5. SPAIN- "Sirat"

6. TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab"

7. TAIWAN- "Left-Handed Girl"

8. DENMARK- "Mr. Nobody Againt Putin"

9. UNITED KINGDOM- "My Father's Shadow" 

10. INDIA- "Homebound"

11. ARGENTINA- "Belen"

12. IRAQ- "The President's Cake" (seems to have lost momentum but has Sony Picture Classics)

13. JAPAN- "Kokuho"

14. COLOMBIA- "Un poeta"

15. JORDAN- "All That's Left of You"

SUPER STRONG ALTERNATES:

16. UKRAINE- "2000 Metres to Andriivka" (surprise snub)

17. PALESTINE- "Palestine 36"

18. SWITZERLAND- "Late Shift"

19. GERMANY- "Sound of Falling" (surprise snub; everyone says it's incredibly boring)

20. EGYPT- "Happy Birthday"

21. SLOVENIA- "Little Trouble Girls"

22. MOROCCO- "Calle Malaga"

23. LEBANON- "Sad and Beautiful World"

DARK HORSES

24. MACEDONIA- "The Tale of Silyan"

25. PHILIPPINES- "Magellan"

26. AUSTRIA- "Peacock"

27. ITALY- "Familia"

28. SWEDEN- "Eagles of the Republic

29. ISRAEL- "The Sea"

30. ICELAND - "The Love that Remains"