FINAL PREDICTIONS (Jan. 11, 2009)

I think the 9-film shortlist will come out tomorrow, so here goes:

MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. "Gomorrah" (Italy)
2. "Everlasting Moments" (Sweden)
3. "Leonera" (Argentina)
4. "Tricks" (Poland)
5. "Waltz with Bashir" (Israel- Special Committee)
6. "The Rest is Silence" (Romania)
7. "The Class" (France- Special Committee)
8. "Okuribito" (Japan)
9. "Tulpan" (Kazakhstan- Special Committee)

STRONG ALTERNATES:
10. "Tengri" (Kyrgyzstan)
11. "Necessities of Life" (Canada)
12. "Revanche" (Austria- Special Committee Only)
13. "Mascarades" (Algeria)
14. "Arrancame la Vida" (Mexico- Large Committee Only)
15. "Mermaid" (Russia)
16. "Der Baader Meinhof Komplex" (Germany)
17. "Captain Abu Raed" (Jordan)
18. "Ultima Parada 174" (Brazil- Special Committee Only)

DARK HORSES
19. "The Tour" (Serbia)
20. "Blind Sunflowers" (Spain)
21. "The Sorrow of Mrs. Schneider" (Albania)
22. "Worlds Apart" (Denmark)
23. "Crossing" (Korea)
24. "Three Monkeys" (Turkey)
25. "O'Horten" (Norway)
26. "Jerusalema" (South Africa)
27. "Song of Sparrows" (Iran)

Therefore, the most likely countries to get their first Oscar nominations this year are Romania and Kyrgyzstan, with an outside chance for Jordan.

Other than the countries above, I really can't see anybody else getting in (though I came close to including "Hope Eternal" from Wales, mostly because it's so much of an unknown)

I may be under-estimating Germany and Spain, who always do so well in this category....Despite the Golden Globe nomination, I've heard Germany's film is not very good, and that the Spanish film is boring, so I'm hoping that gives some other countries a chance....And I may be overestimating Japan (because I loved the films) and the two Central Asian republics (because I am rooting for them....)

Oh well, we'll find out tomorrow.