2012 Oscar Predictions

And then there were five.....

Like everyone else in the world, I'm predicting "A Separation" for the win, but I'm less sure than most! Even though the reviews have not been as universally strong as Iran's family drama, Poland's Holocaust-era drama "In Darkness" is in a very strong second position, and I'm worried...

Like most years, most of the nominees have not been released in American cinemas so I've only had the chance to "A Separation" and "Bullhead". I strongly disliked "Bullhead" and really don't understand any of the positive notices, other than the strong lead performance. Here in Washington, DC, they do show all the nominated films at the National Geographic Society every year, but I was in the Caribbean and so missed seeing them....

One interesting trivia fact is that Israel, Poland and Belgium are three of the four countries that have the most Foreign Oscar nominations without actually winning the award. Given that Iran has also never won, we have a 95% chance (Canada did win once) of having a country winning for the first time.....

While I rarely agree with the choices for the five nomineees, I usually DO agree with the choice of the winning film. I guess this means that the selection committee and I have our disagreements, but the overall Academy membership and I often see eye-to-eye...I don't often say this, but I'm rooting for Iran!

FINAL PREDICTIONS
1. IRAN- "A Separation" (60% chance)
2. POLAND- "In Darkness" (30% chance)
3. CANADA - "Monsieur Lazhar" (7% chance)
4. ISRAEL- "Footnote" (2% chance)
5. BELGIUM- "Bullhead" (1% chance)

Other Predictions-
Best Picture- The Artist
Best Director- Martin Scorsese
Best Actor- George Clooney
Best Actress- Meryl Streep (the closest race!!)
Best Supporting Actress- Octavia Spencer
Best Supporting Actor- Christopher Plummer
Best Original Screenplay- A Separation (probably too much to hope for?)
Best Adapted Screenplay- The Descendants

Best Animated Film- Rango
Best Animated Short- La Luna
Best Live Action Short- Raju (Germany)
Best Documentary- Paradise Lost 3
Best Documentary Short- Saving Face

Best Art Direction- Hugo
Best Cinematography- The Tree of Life
Best Costumes- Anonymous
Best Editing- The Artist
Best Makeup- Harry Potter 8
Best Musical Score- The Artist
Best Song- The Muppets
Best Sound Editing- War Horse
Best Sound Mixing- Hugo
Best Visual Effects- Rise of the Planet of the Apes