Well, I don't think there's much suspense in the Foreign Film category this year.....
Like most of the rest of the world, I'm predicting Austria wins their second Oscar for "Amour". This category often has what many perceive as surprises ("Departures" and "Secret in Their Eyes") but this happens for one main reason- the (excellent) rule that voters MUST certify that they have seen all five nominees in order to vote for the Best Foreign Language Film. In this way, smaller films are not hurt because less people have seen them. "Departures" and "Secret in Their Eyes" were clearly more accessible (and, in my humble opinion, vastly superior films) than the arty competition.
I've seen three or four of the five nominees (since Lincoln Center stupidly showed the English-language version of "Kon-Tiki" at their Foreign Oscar retrospective).
I do not think "Amour" is a lock for the win....However, it's certainly the most likely choice and my prediction. I was actually going to predict an upset for Canada's "War Witch" until I saw the film. While it's excellent, I don't think it will be able to beat the "Amour" juggernaut.
1. AUSTRIA- "Amour" (70%)
2. CANADA- "Rebelle" (War Witch) (11%)
3. NORWAY- "Kon-Tiki"(10%)
4. DENMARK- "A Royal Affair" (9%)
5. CHILE- "No" (Less than 1%)
Actually, I thought this was a weak year for Foreign Films....I saw the nominees from Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Iceland, India, Malaysia, Norway, Peru, Serbia, Switzerland, Thailand. Ukraine, Uruguay and I'm not sure any of them deserve an Oscar (though some like Austria, Canada & Denmark deserve nominations.
My favorites were the crowd-pleasing comedies from France ("Intouchables") and India ("Barfi!
, and I'd give an honorable mention to the "everything-but-the-kitchen-sink" exciting thriller from the Dominican Republic. It's not a perfect film but it certainly is fun to watch and the 24-year old director is one to watch.
Congratulations to Chile to making the Final Five for the first time.
One final note: I predicted "Buzkashi Boys", a U.S.-Afghanistan co-production made by an American director in Kabul, would represent Afghanistan in the Foreign Film race. The 28-minute film wasn't eligible as a feature but it was nominated (and it will win) the Best Short Film category.
Predictions:
Best Picture- "Argo" (should win: "Zero Dark Thirty")
Best Foreign Film- "Amour" (Austria) (should win: "A Royal Affair")
Best Short Film- "Buzkashi Boys" (Afghanistan)
Best Animated Short- "Paperman" (USA)
Like most of the rest of the world, I'm predicting Austria wins their second Oscar for "Amour". This category often has what many perceive as surprises ("Departures" and "Secret in Their Eyes") but this happens for one main reason- the (excellent) rule that voters MUST certify that they have seen all five nominees in order to vote for the Best Foreign Language Film. In this way, smaller films are not hurt because less people have seen them. "Departures" and "Secret in Their Eyes" were clearly more accessible (and, in my humble opinion, vastly superior films) than the arty competition.
I've seen three or four of the five nominees (since Lincoln Center stupidly showed the English-language version of "Kon-Tiki" at their Foreign Oscar retrospective).
I do not think "Amour" is a lock for the win....However, it's certainly the most likely choice and my prediction. I was actually going to predict an upset for Canada's "War Witch" until I saw the film. While it's excellent, I don't think it will be able to beat the "Amour" juggernaut.
1. AUSTRIA- "Amour" (70%)
2. CANADA- "Rebelle" (War Witch) (11%)
3. NORWAY- "Kon-Tiki"(10%)
4. DENMARK- "A Royal Affair" (9%)
5. CHILE- "No" (Less than 1%)
Actually, I thought this was a weak year for Foreign Films....I saw the nominees from Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Iceland, India, Malaysia, Norway, Peru, Serbia, Switzerland, Thailand. Ukraine, Uruguay and I'm not sure any of them deserve an Oscar (though some like Austria, Canada & Denmark deserve nominations.
My favorites were the crowd-pleasing comedies from France ("Intouchables") and India ("Barfi!
, and I'd give an honorable mention to the "everything-but-the-kitchen-sink" exciting thriller from the Dominican Republic. It's not a perfect film but it certainly is fun to watch and the 24-year old director is one to watch.
Congratulations to Chile to making the Final Five for the first time.
One final note: I predicted "Buzkashi Boys", a U.S.-Afghanistan co-production made by an American director in Kabul, would represent Afghanistan in the Foreign Film race. The 28-minute film wasn't eligible as a feature but it was nominated (and it will win) the Best Short Film category.
Predictions:
Best Picture- "Argo" (should win: "Zero Dark Thirty")
Best Foreign Film- "Amour" (Austria) (should win: "A Royal Affair")
Best Short Film- "Buzkashi Boys" (Afghanistan)
Best Animated Short- "Paperman" (USA)
1 comment:
Thanks for all your coverage, as usual. And be sure to see "No." It's wonderful!
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