FINAL PREDICTIONS

With the unfortunate disqualification of AFGHANISTAN, there are 80 films contending for nine finalists slots. The six films that have the highest average scores from the "large committee" will automatically made the Final Nine. Then three more films will be selected from the "elite committee", which typically chooses more challenging, cerebral fare.

I expect the list will be announced on Friday, December 18, although it could be announced a day before or after.

In the past few weeks, we've seen some precursors announced:

Golden Globes: Belgium, Chile, Finland, France and Hungary
National Board of Review: Hungary, with runners-up Austria and Brazil and a special award for France
Critics Choice: Austria, Brazil, France, Hungary and Taiwan

Buzz for some countries has heated up (Chile, Finland, Iceland, South Africa) and for others cooled down (Guatemala, Portugal, Sweden, Taiwan). And of course, everyone is expecting "Son of Saul" to just walk away with this....

I've managed to see just 19 of the 80 films, but I have plans to see one more this weekend (Thailand) and three more before Christmas....But I wanted to publish this since the list may be announced as early as tomorrow. 

PREDICTED SHORTLIST:
1. HUNGARY- "Son of Saul"
2. FRANCE- "Mustang"
3. DENMARK- "A War"
4. ICELAND- "Rams"
5. CHILE- "El club" (Elite Committee Save)
6. ARGENTINA- "El clan"
7. BELGIUM- "The Brand New Testament"
8. ISRAEL- "Baba Joon"
9. JORDAN- "Theeb"

ALTERNATES
10. BULGARIA- "The Judgement"
11. GERMANY- "Labyrinth of Lies" (Large Committee Only)
12. FINLAND- "The Fencer" (Large Committee Only)
13. TAIWAN- "The Assassin" (Elite Committee Only; Dear Elite Committee....This movie makes no sense....Please don't choose it for the Production Design alone)
14. BRAZIL- "The Second Mother" (Large Committee Only)
15. MEXICO- "600 Miles" (Large Committee Only)
16. ETHIOPIA- "Lamb"

DARK HORSES
17. COLOMBIA- "Embrace of the Serpent"  (Elite Committee Only)
18. AUSTRIA- "Goodnight Mommy" (Elite Committee Only)
19. NETHERLANDS- "Paradise Suite"
20. INDIA- "Court"
21. ROMANIA- "Aferim!" (Elite Committee Only)

RUNNER-UPS
22. KAZAKHSTAN- "The Stranger"
23. NORWAY- "The Wave"

24. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Home Care"
25. GUATEMALA- "Ixcanul"
26. SERBIA- "Enclave"
27. SOUTH AFRICA- "Two of Us"
28. SINGAPORE- "7 Letters"
29. SWEDEN- "A Pigeon Sat on a Branch..."
30. JAPAN- "100-Yen Love"
31. CHINA- "Go Away, Mr. Tumor"
32. ALBANIA- "Bota"

LEAST LIKELY
79. BANGLADESH- "Jalal's Story"
80. HONG KONG- "To the Fore"

Good luck to all the best films!