I think the shortlist will be announced tomorrow but it may be today so I'm publishing now even though I wanted to wait until I saw the films from Finland and Kosovo tonight.
The Golden Globe nominations came out Monday and it was good news for Cambodia, Chile, Germany, Russia and Sweden, but bad news for front-runners "BPM", "The Insult" and "Foxtrot". It's true the Globes do go for big names (which could explain all but Russia), but there's usually a lot of overlap with the Oscar shortlist. So, this really helps those five countries.
Even though we have 92 submissions, I don't really think there are more films than usual with a chance. In fact, I really only see about thirty that could make it to the next round.
Even though we have 92 submissions, I don't really think there are more films than usual with a chance. In fact, I really only see about thirty that could make it to the next round.
I managed to see 27 of the nominees this year (and I'll see many more this month). So far, my favorite films were Germany and Bulgaria, though .
Here are my predictions.....I haven't forgotten the poorly reviewed "Zama" or the dull "Summer 1993". I don't think they'll score here.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
1. RUSSIA- “Loveless"
2. ISRAEL- “Foxtrot”
3. GERMANY- “In the Fade”
5. LEBANON- “The Insult” (SAVED)
6. FRANCE- “180 Battements par minute” (SAVED)
6. FRANCE- “180 Battements par minute” (SAVED)
7. CAMBODIA- “First They Killed My Father”
8. HUNGARY- “Of Body and Soul” (SAVED)
9. BRAZIL- “Bingo- The King of the Mornings"
9. BRAZIL- “Bingo- The King of the Mornings"
ALTERNATES
10. JAPAN- “Her Love Boils Bathwater”
11. ALGERIA- “Road to Istanbul”
11. ALGERIA- “Road to Istanbul”
12. SOUTH AFRICA- “The Wound”
13. CANADA- “Hochelaga- Land of
Souls”
14. TURKEY- “Ayla- The Daughter of
War”
15. NEPAL- “White
Sun”
16. ITALY- “A Ciambra”
17. DENMARK- “You Disappear”
18. BULGARIA- “Glory”
17. DENMARK- “You Disappear”
18. BULGARIA- “Glory”
UNLIKEL
19. SWEDEN- “The Square”
20. SINGAPORE- “Pop Aye”
20. SINGAPORE- “Pop Aye”
21. LATVIA- “Chronicles of Melanie"
22. SOUTH KOREA- “A Taxi
Driver”
23. KYRGYZSTAN- “Centaur”
24. GEORGIA- “Scary Mother”
IN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE:
25. MEXICO- “Tempestad”
26. INDIA- “Newton”
26. INDIA- “Newton”
27. POLAND-
“Spoor”
28. FINLAND- “Tom of
Finland”
29. SLOVENIA- “The Miner”
30. PHILIPPINES- “Birdshot”
HIGHLY UNLIKELY
31. PARAGUAY- “Los buscadores”
32. AUSTRIA- “Happy
End”
33. VENEZUELA- “El Inca”
34. NORWAY- “Thelma”
35. ESTONIA- “November”
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