FINAL PREDICTION: An upset for "The Insult"

So, I'm on vacation, returning to the States at 715pm, and not sure I'll have time to get to a computer before the Oscars start.

So, I'm predicting an upset for "The Insult". It's by far the best of the four nominees I've seen ("Loveless" opened in Washington DC while I was on holiday so I didn't get to see it). And though quality doesn't usually mean the film will win, it's so much better and "Oscary" than the others, I'm optimistic. 

But honestly it's an exciting race this year. Any of the five have a shot. 

Overall, I think "The Square" is too silly, WAY overlong, and more likely to appeal to the "Euro" voters. "On Body and Soul" packs most of its energy into that powerful ending...but the rest of the film is divisive. Some think it's brilliant...others think it's slow. "A Fantastic Woman" is probably the closest thing to a favorite, and the transgender plotline is certainly topical. But I think the film is more notable for its lead performance than the film itself. 

Since I haven't seen it, "Loveless" is the real wild card for me. Its got great reviews and oscar loves a depressing film in this category. But I think the new viewing rules may hurt it. Sweden got a fairly wide release, chile and Lebanon sent screeners and Hungary is on Netflix. Will enough viewers see the Russian entry before voting? 

LEBANON- 49%

RUSSIA- 25%

CHILE- 20%

SWEDEN- 5%

HUNGARY- 1%

As for the shorts?

Live Action:

Should Win: "Watu Wote" 

Can't win: "The Silent Child"

Could win: "My Nephew Emmett"

Will Win: "DeKalb Elementary"

Animated

Should win: "Garden Party"

Can't win: "Dear Basketball"

Could win: "Lou"

Will win: "Garden Party"

For the docs, I only saw one (the tragic "Edith and Eddie") but I've heard Heroin(e) will win.