FINAL PREDICTIONS

 So, with 15 films on the shortlist and no elite committee, this could be much easier to predict if the Large Committee just sends all  the big, Oscary productions....In that case, movies like Latvia, Russia and Spain will benefit. But we have never seen the films that come in 8th place through 15th place from the big committee....Are they a little bit more adventurous and diverse just above the surface? Will we see small, well-reviewed films like Lebanon and Mongolia make the list? Are "auteur" films like Georgia, Lesotho and Portugal completely out of luck now (yes, I think so....) that there's no Elite Committee, or will they benefit from the longer list?

I've seen 62 of the 93 eligible films and have 16 others at home that I'm trying to get through....

Here are my final predictions for the shortlist, scheduled to be announced today:

PREDICTED SHORTLIST

1.  Bosnia-Herzegovina, "Quo Vadis Aida?"  A

2.  Denmark- "Another Round" A-

3.  Romania- "Collective" NOT SEEN

4.  Norway- "Hope" NOT SEEN

5.  Kosovo- "Exile" A

6.  Spain- "The Endless Trench" NOT SEEN

7.  Slovakia- "The Auschwitz Report" A-

8.  Taiwan- "A Sun" NOT SEEN

9.  France- "Deux" A-

10.  Lebanon- "Broken Keys" NOT SEEN

11.  Guatemala, "La Llorona" A- (But I'm really worried about this one, despite all the precursors)

12.  Latvia- "Blizzard of Souls" B

13.  Russia- "Dear Comrades" B+

14.  Tunisia- "The Man Who Sold His Skin" A-

15.  Germany, "And Tomorrow the Entire World" B- (Enough, Germany!!)

LIKELY ALTERNATES:

16.  Mongolia- "Veins of the World" SEEING TONIGHT!

17.  Chile- "The Mole Agent" B+

18.   Pakistan- "Circus of Life" A (really hoping for this one! It would mean so much for Pakistani  cinema and they're so close!)

19.  Iran- "Sun Children" B+

20.  Greece- "Apples" B+

21.  Hungary- "Preparations to Be Together...." B+

22.  Japan- "True Mothers" B+

23.  Hong Kong- "Better Days" NOT SEEN

DARK HORSES:

24.  Jordan- "200 Meters" NOT SEEN

25.  Senegal- "Nafi's Father" B+

26.  Czech Republic- "Charlatan" C (I know they love Holland...but the film really is not good)

27.  Dominican Republic- "A State of Madness" NOT SEEN

28.  Ireland- "Arracht" B

29.  Canada- "14 Days, 12 Nights" NOT SEEN

30.  Cote d'Ivoire- "Night of Kings" B

31.  Mexico- "I'm No Longer Here" C+ (I predict this will be the surprise snub....It's not a good film and it's definitely not what AMPAS likes)

32.  Macedonia- "Willow" A-

REAL LONG SHOTS:

33.  Switzerland- "My Little Sister" C+

34.  Serbia- "Dara of Jasenovac" NOT SEEN

35.  Israel- "Asia" B

36.  Lesotho- "This is Not a Burial, It's a Resurrection" C

37.  India- "Jallikattu" B 

38.  Poland- "Never Gonna Snow Again" B

39.  Colombia- "Memories of My Father" NOT SEEN

40.  Sudan- "You Will Die at 20" B+

I didn't forget Italy or Ukraine.....They're terrible films and they're not going to be on the list.