FINAL PREDICTIONS (Nominees)

So, I managed to get 9 out of 15 right this year....plus I had three more on my "Alternates" list....Only Mexico and Ivory Coast were real surprises for me.....I know a lot of people were predicting them, but I don't think the films themselves are great (it seems a lot of people disagree with me on Mexico) and they aren't the sorts of movies that I thought that AMPAS would like. Oh well. I am happy for Guatemala and Tunisia but also disappointed for Kosovo and Pakistan.

The nominations come out tonight and I still haven't had time to see the two very long Chinese-language films on the shortlist- "A Sun" and "Better Days", both of which I very much want to see. 

But here goes:

LOCKED AND LOADED:

1. DENMARK- "Another Round"

2. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Quo Vadis Aida"

3. NORWAY- "Hope"

Almost everyone agrees that "Another Round" and "Quo Vadis Aida" are the two locks, and the two films that will compete to win the Oscar. While I prefer "Aida", these are both great films and would make very deserving nominees. Though nobody is talking about brain tumor drama "Hope", I think it's fairly safe as well. It's one of the only films on the list that has really widespread appeal and that has almost no detractors....(a lot of films like "Dear Comrades" and "Night of the Kings" are pretty divisive). It's a really good movie. 

STRONG FRONTRUNNERS: 

4. ROMANIA- "Collective"

5. TAIWAN- "A Sun"

6. FRANCE- "Deux"

I have been juggling these three films (plus Guatemala) and I simply can't figure out which one is going to miss. "Collective" has by far the strongest reviews of any film on the list....but ("Honeyland" aside) documentaries simply don't do well here. Thought it's certainly an important film, it wouldn't make my Top Five.....and never-nominated Romania has always been cursed in this category....But I think critical acclaim will put it in 4th place. 

That leaves France and Taiwan (and Guatemala!). Will they go for Taiwan's epic family soap opera, or France's fantastic lesbian thriller? I wish I'd taken the time to see "A Sun" (I'll finally see it later this week) so I could be more definitive.....But "A Sun" seems more Oscary, has added exposure from Netflix (although they definitely could have and should have done more) and would prevent Oscar from being embarrassed by nominating five European films. 

DARK HORSES

7. GUATEMALA- "La Llorona"

8. RUSSIA- "Dear Comrades"

9. IRAN- "Sun Children"

Oh, Guatemala....I really hope I'm wrong.....You've done so well in the precursors but I really never saw Oscar going for this creepy slow-burn horror film. I love when small countries get a nomination, and this would be the first for a Central American director (Nicaragua was nominated in the 80s but the director was Chilean exile Miguel Littin). But I'm predicting a narrow miss. :(

"Dear Comrades" and "Sun Children" will also do well, I think. "Dear Comrades" doesn't seem to be for everybody.....some like the first half, some like the second half, everyone thinks it good but not everyone thinks its great. "Sun Children" is Majid Majidi's best film in years...a mystery, a children's film, and a fairly exciting "Goonies"-style adventure....but I just think it will be overwhelmed by the competition. 

UNLIKELY

10. TUNISIA- "The Man Who Sold His Skin"

11. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Charlatan"

12. MEXICO- "I'm No Longer Here"

I'm probably biased because I don't like them, but "Charlatan" and "I'm No Longer Here" don't belong on this list. "Charlatan" generally has the lowest or almost lowest ratings on every movie site (Rotten Tomatoes, IMDB, Metascore and Letterboxd) and is generally dull and dusty, with an absurdly odd gay plotline mixed in. "I'm No Longer Here" is critically acclaimed for reasons I haven't yet understood and has the real backing of Netflix ....but it's also a youth film with a lot of boring dancing.....Not good enough. 

As for "The Man Who Sold His Skin", it is good enough to be nominated, with a topical look at issues of immigration, refugees, art, cinema.....It's funny, it's dramatic, it's fascinating to watch, and Kaouther Ben Hania is one of the best directors from the Arab World today. It was the biggest surprise when the shortlist was announced but not everyone loves it and I think it's gone as far as it can go. 

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

13. CHILE- "The Mole Agent"

14. HONG KONG- "Better Days"

15. COTE D'IVOIRE- "Night of the Kings"

"The Mole Agent" might have been a contender.....but if there's one documentary picked, it will definitely be "Collective"....so this quirky documentary (which is far more story-oriented like "Honeyland" than "Collective") is probably out of the running. Youth drama "Better Days" has gotten better reviews than most films on the list....but like "The Man Who Sold His Skin", it was a surprise finalist and probably can't get any further. And even though a lot of Oscar prognosticators are picking "Night of the Kings", I haven't anybody who really likes the film and it's poetic, Afro-Shakespearean storytelling. It's not a bad movie at all....but it really doesn't seem to be good enough to be an Oscar nominee.