INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR THE ASIA-PACIFIC (28 countries)

And here are my predictions for the countries from Asia and the Pacific:

1. AFGHANISTAN- “Bread and Roses” The Taliban re-opened cinemas in 2022, and appointed a new and inexperienced 29-year old to head the country’s National Film Agency. That may sound like an improvement (they used to publicly burn films) but it's really not. There are vague, confusing rules banning women from appearing or working in most films. While Afghanistan has more important things than the Oscars on their mind, it would be a lovely symbolic move if they sent documentary “Bread and Roses” which debuted at Cannes 2023, about the lives of three women after the 2021 Taliban takeover, produced by an exiled female director.

2. AUSTRALIA- “Shayda” As usual, the big problem with predicting Australia is that it’s unclear which films have enough non-English dialogue to qualify. “Shayda”, about an Iranian mother and daughter who find refuge in an Australian women’s shelter, got rave reviews at Sundance and will probably be selected if it is more than 50% in Persian. If not, they'll probably choose Goran Stolevksi ("You Won't Be Alone") for a second year in a row for queer comedy-drama "Housekeeping for Beginners" (Venice; completely in Macedonian). Other possibilities: Paul Mescal’s re-telling of “Carmen” (partly in Spanish, but probably too much English?), aboriginal documentary “Audrey Napanangka” and Pacific Islander anthology “We Are Still Here” (which is my prediction for New Zealand).

3. BANGLADESH- “Memories of Gloomy Monsoons” Bangladesh has quietly become one of the most reliable countries in Asia, missing just one year since 2005. They typically produce about 100 films annually though they've never had a serious Oscar contender. This year, arthouse film “Memories of Gloomy Monsoons” made the news in Bangladesh after it won a major award and glowing reviews at the Dhaka International Film Festival but couldn’t get a cinematic release because it “lacked big stars”. It was eventually released in five cinemas and sending it to the Oscars would be a nice way to reward it. Two upcoming films- “A Tale of Two Sisters”, set during the 1971 War for Independence, and “Roktojoba”, about an anonymous letter that causes a great deal of trouble- could also be selected. Less possible: “Payer Chhap”, about a girl growing up in an impoverished family. Last year, Bangladesh picked a box-office hit (“Hawa”) so they could pick “Priyotoma”….but I don’t think reviews are good enough. Bangladesh's submission probably should be terrorism drama “Saturday Afternoon”, one of the best-reviewed Bangladeshi films of all time, which finally won approval from Bangladeshi censors four years after premiering in Moscow, in 2019. I don’t think it ever got a cinematic release and doubt the Bangladeshi Academy would be brave enough to send it.

4. BHUTAN- “The Monk & the Gun” The Oscar-nominated director of “Lunana", Pawo Choyning Dorji, has a new film premiering at the Toronto Film Festival- "The Monk & the Gun"- and Bhutan did launch an open call for Oscar submissions perhaps in anticipation of sending it. We'll see if the Bhutanese can get "Monk", about the 2006 introduction of television, Internet and democratic elections- in local cinemas by October 31. Bhutan has an active Bollywood-style local film industry but they seem to have decided to just send films made for an international audience. If "Monk" doesn't get released at home, they could send “Choegyal Norzang & Yeethro Lhamo”, which looks like a sort of Bhutanese “Crouching Tiger” period drama.

5. CAMBODIA- “Wishing Lollipop” Cambodia doesn’t have much to choose from this year, as a follow-up to their excellent “Return to Seoul” which was deservedly shortlisted last year. However, they’ve only missed one year since they started submitting regularly in 2012….so I suspect they’ll find something. That could be “Wishing Lollipop”, described as an unconventional romantic comedy. I think “The Perfect Motion”, a documentary about the Cambodian Royal Ballet whose ranks were decimated when the Khmer Rouge tried to massacre all national artists, would be a far stronger choice. But the film- which is wholly Cambodian but has a foreign director and mostly foreign crew- may not qualify. Other options: drama “A Cambodian Winter”; documentary “Lotus Sports Club” (about a transgender athlete) and even horror movie "The House" could compete if they were released in such a weak year. 

6. CHINA- “Full River Red” China makes some great films….but the Chinese Academy rarely sends them to the Oscars. In the past eight years, only one film (“Cliff Walkers”) has been a serious Oscar contender, selected alongside films like the atrocious action movie “Wolf Warrior 2” and the (admittedly beautifully animated) children’s cartoon “Ne Zha”. Recently, China has preferred box-office hits over award-winning films. Although murder mystery “Only the River Flows” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard) is probably China’s best shot, the censors will surely find some way of being offended by some aspect of it…I see two main possibilities for China- “Full River Red” by master filmmaker Zhang Yimou (who has repped China eight times and Hong Kong once) and “Love Never Ends”, a romantic drama about Chinese senior citizens that opened the Shanghai Film Festival, was one of the winners of the “Most Popular Film of the Year” (2022 submission “Nice View” won last year) and which could potentially resonate with elderly Oscar voters. They’ve only picked one out of the four films Zhang has made since helming “The Great Wall” in Hollywood, but it’s always risky betting against China's most important international director.  China is usually impossible to predict, but a few other strong possibilities (in order)- “Lost in the Stars”, a box-office smash crime drama about a missing woman who reappears with no memory of her husband, “Hidden Blade”, a patriotic thriller starring Tony Leung, “Never Say Never”, a box-office smash sports drama about orphans, “The Coldest City”, an anti-Japan action drama set in 1945, “The Great War”, a Korean War movie by film great Chen Kaige about China “protecting” North Korea from U.S.-South Korean forces, “Creation of the Gods”, a massive fantasy blockbuster based on Chinese mythology and history; “Chang An”, a stylish animation movie, and “Shadowless Tower” (Berlin) rounding out the Top Ten.

7. FIJI- Nothing Fiji sent a single film in 2005. The director of that film, Hawai’i-based Vilsoni Hereniko, made an animated short last year (Sina ma Tinirau) but it’s too short and was made in English. Fiji doesn’t have a domestic film industry and they don’t have anything eligible. 

8. HONG KONG- “The Goldfinger” The Hong Kong Academy loves crime dramas with big HK stars- even when nobody else likes them….Last year’s “Where the Wind Blows” (starring Tony Leung and Aaron Kwok) didn’t have particularly good reviews and couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination at the Hong Kong Film Awards. So, this year’s hotly anticipated “The Goldfinger” (previously known as “Once Upon A Time in Hong Kong”), reuniting HK film royalty Tony Leung and Andy Lau twenty years after “Infernal Affairs” and reportedly the most expensive HK film ever made will automatically be chosen….if it gets a qualifying release. I think it will. The long-delayed film has been announced for New Year’s Eve weekend…two months after the October 31 deadline. But Hong Kong has been known to pick films and do a one-week unpublicized preview release to qualify for the Oscars. They did this in 2005, 2009, 2011, and- most recently- last year. “Goldfinger” has been delayed so long I can’t see it missing another year. If Hong Kong saves it for next year, the race to represent the city-state is wide open. My other five predictions (in order): “Mad Fate” (Berlin 2023), a gory murder mystery that opened the 2023 Hong Kong Film Festival and is produced by Johnnie To, whose films have repped Hong Kong four times, “The Narrow Road”, a COVID-era drama that got nominated for Best Pic at the HK Film Awards (HKFA), “To My 19-Year Old Self”, the sleeper documentary about high-school girls that actually won Best Picture at the HKFA, and was directed by 72-year old Mabel Cheung who repped Hong Kong over thirty years ago, “A Guilty Conscience”, a dark comedy about a lawyer trying to exonerate an innocent woman, and “Sunny Side of the Street”, about a HK-born Pakistani youth. The HK film I most want to see this year is jet-black housing comedy “Over My Dead Body”, but that’s a pretty long shot.

9. INDIA- TBD

10. INDONESIA- “Autobiography” In the past five years, Indonesia has selected three acclaimed arthouse dramas featured at major film festivals (Cannes, Toronto and Venice) and two surprising genre films- a bloody horror film and a commercial comedy that had each inked U.S. streaming deals. This year, “Autobiography” (Venice and Toronto 2022), a drama about complicated class relationships, seems to be the strong frontrunner. It’s gotten very good reviews for its creepy story of a young man who gets caught up in political intrigue when his ex-military boss decides to run for mayor, and it’s the only eligible film nominated for Best Picture  at last year’s national Cintra Awards. With Mouly Surya’s historical epic “This City is a Battlefield” delayed, “Autobiography” doesn’t have much competition…But if Indonesia does choose something more commercial, then social media drama “Like & Share” or group suicide thriller “Fireworks”- which both have Netflix deals- could contend. But I predict  an easy win for “Autobiography”. 

11. JAPAN- “Monster” Of course, Japan produces tons of great films every year but this year looks like a brutal showdown between two of the country’s greatest directors- Hirokazu Koreeda, who was nominated for “Shoplifters” and now has “Monster” (Cannes), and two-time Oscar winner and national treasure Hayao Miyazaki, 82, who has announced that “The Boy and the Heron” (Opening Film, Toronto) will be his final film. Both films have great reviews but it’s “Monster” that will be clearly be a more serious threat for a nomination so that’s my pick. Japan should push “Boy” for Best Animated Feature….But a big part of me really thinks this will go to Miyazaki. Two other Oscar veterans are in the mix: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, director of the overrated, overlong “Drive My Car” has a new film premiering at Vencie (“Evil Does Not Exist”)….IMDB says it will premiere in Japan in 2024, but this could be a surprise last-minute contender. And 91-year old Yoji Yamada, nominated for “Twilight Samurai”, has a new film that may also be his last- “Hi, Mom!”….though Japan should know better that the other two would be stronger choices. “Kubi” and “Perfect Days” got positive notices at Cannes but I doubt Japan would choose a foreign director (Oscar nominee Wim Wenders) and they’ve never gone for a Takeshi Kitano film.

12. KAZAKHSTAN- “Final Judgment” Kazakhstan usually sends films that showcase national heroes, Kazakh history and Soviet atrocities against Central Asian people, although they’ve gone with more “modern” tales the past two years. As usual, they have quite an open competition and I’m not sure what to predict. For now, I’m going with “Final Judgment ”, an upcoming film by a prominent arthouse director about a Kazakh author targeted by brutal Stalinist purges. In second place, I have Qas” (aka “Qash”), a film about the devastating Soviet-engineered famine that killed over a million people in the 1930s. Kazakhstan selected a similar film in 2020. I’m not sure if that will help or hurt the film but “Qash”, which won a New Talent award in Shanghai, seems to be a much more personal story than the larger-scale “The Crying Steppe”. Two well-reviewed festival favorites from last year- “Happiness” (Berlinale, Panorama Audience Award) and “Scheme” (Berlinale, 14+ Grand Prix) finally got released in Kazakhstan in February and July 2023 respectively and “Happiness” was sent to the Golden Globes last year. Both films would be great choices but they highlight social problems that the Kazakh Academy may not like (domestic violence and teen delinquency). There were also two Kazakh films in competition at their national Film Festival (Eurasia), namely crime drama “Brothers”, and “Storm”, a Soviet-era melodrama about a traveler who accidentally ends up crossing the Chinese border during a storm. Lastly, we have “Ademoka’s Education”, a dramedy about a Tajik migrant, one of three 2022 releases by prolific, award-winning Adilkhan Yerzhanov who had a film sent for the first time in 2021. Highly unlikely: “Balaban” may be the best-reviewed Kazakh film of the year, but I find it unlikely they’ll select an LGBT-themed film (although last year Morocco and Pakistan did….so who knows?)

13. KOREA- “Cobweb” NOTE: I wrote this the day before the Korean announcement. KOREA selected "Concrete Utopia" 

The Korean Film Council (KOFIC) announced on July 25^th that they would be considering 13 films to represent South Korea at the Oscars next year, with a strong emphasis on action movies and thrillers.  I think three of the films have no chance (poorly reviewed Afghanistan rescue movie “The Point Men”, serial killer thriller “Target” and action drama “Ransomed”) but here are my rankings for the other ten:

1, Cobweb- A “meta”, original story centered on a film-within-a-film….it has good reviews, the strongest buzz on the list, an Out-of-Competition berth at Cannes, starpower (“Parasite” star Song Kang-ho) and is made by a popular director who was picked once before in 2016.

2. The Moon- A hotly anticipated, big-budget (by Korean standards) space survival drama about a Korean astronaut accidentally abandoned on the moon…that I think American audiences will like. 

3. Road to Boston: 1947- A period drama by a respected director who hasn’t been picked since 2004 (“Taegukgi”). Recently, Korea has sent a lot of films about Korean history and this film about Korean marathon runners, has a U.S. hook and an opportunity to bash Japan…both pluses for Korea.

4. Concrete Utopia- A disaster movie about the survivors of an earthquake that destroys most of Seoul. It has the best reviews of the summer blockbusters. 

5. Sleep- A creepy thriller that played at Cannes Critics Week, about a pregnant woman and her sleepwalking husband (“Parasite”’s Lee Sun-kyun), whose sleepwalking habits begin to threaten mother and baby. Good reviews but it’s the feature debut of a young, unknown director and would be an odd genre pick.

6 Hopeless- A violent crime drama about a young man who gets involved with organized crime. It played at Cannes Un Certain Regard, and it fits the violent noir preferences of the Korean Academy. Reviews are good though not the best on the list.

7. The Hill of Secrets- A small, well-reviewed drama that played in the 14+ Section of Berlinale but looks too small to compete here. 

8. Smugglers- A commercial box office hit by the director of “Escape from Mogadishu”. 

9. Hero- A mix of political biopic and musical opera….It’s said to be an acquired taste and may not appeal to Western audiences….though the director has come close to being picked several times, and they may feel he’s overdue.

10. The Devil’s Deal- A political corruption thriller. It’s already available on streaming platforms in the U.S.

14. KYRGYZSTAN- “This is What I Remember” Kyrgyzstan’s most important director is Aktan Arym Kubat. He’s made five feature films in his native Kyrgyzstan (plus one more in neighboring Kazakhstan) since the country joined the Oscar competition in 1997, and the first four were sent to Hollywood….so it would be foolish to bet against #5- “This Is What I Remember”- that played at the Tokyo Film Festival in 2022. It’s a film about an old man with amnesia who returns to his family in Kyrgyzstan after years abroad working in Russia. Last year, I predicted “The Scent of Wormwood” after it was selected for Busan…but it didn’t premiere in Kyrgyzstan until 2023. It’s a well-reviewed family drama set in a small village, just likely most of the Kyrgyz submissions… so it’s a close second place.

15. LAOS- “The Signal” Laos submitted a spooky horror-drama once in 2017 and I’m hoping they return this year with another of the same genre- “The Signal” (Shanghai). This is another supernaturally tinged drama, this time about a young woman uncovering family secrets while searching for her missing father.

16. MALAYSIA- “Imaginur” Malaysia skipped last year after sending films three years in a row (2019-2021). The two sci-fi/fantasy films I predicted as the frontrunners last year- “The Stone Turtle” and “Imaginur”- actually got released at home in 2023, and they’re strong contenders to represent Malaysia this year. You can add peculiar Islamic body horror “Tiger Stripes”, a surprise winner at Cannes Critics Week, “Malbatt: Misi Bakara”, an action movie about Malaysian soldiers in Somalia and reportedly the most expensive Malaysian film ever made, and interracial romance “Maryam” (Rotterdam). I hate picking the same film two years in a row but “Imaginur”, a thoroughly original sci-fi flick about time and memory, has the best reviews. I have “Tiger Stripes” in second place. 

17. MONGOLIA- “If Only I Could Hibernate” Set during Mongolia’s bitter winter, coming-of-age drama “If Only I Could Hibernate” is sure to be selected. It’s gotten great reviews for Mongolia’s Cannes feature debut, about a bright 15-year old who is forced to help take care of his family in light of his widowed mother’s worsening alcoholism. But Mongolia also has Down’s Syndrome drama “Trio” (Warsaw, Tallinn Black Nights), “City of Wind” (Toronto), a coming-of-age movie, and upcoming big-budget action film “Wolf Warriors”, set in 800 BC and directed by Erdenebileg Ganbold who made “The Steed”, one of the best Oscar submissions ever to fail to make the shortlist.

18. NEPAL- “Jaari” Nepal tends to select social dramas and this year’s “Jaari” was such a critical and box-office hit that it will be difficult to ignore. The film, about a dysfunctional marriage set amidst the country’s minority Limbu community, is the 4^th highest-grossing Nepali film of all time, and the #1 film that’s not a comedy sequel. Other films with a chance: “Fulbari”, about a family whose matriarch falls ill, “Neerphool”, about a family reunion in the country’s minority Buddhist Tamang community, and “Bahaab”, about a young girl trying to avoid an arranged marriage. “A Road to a Village”, about a remote village that becomes connected to “modern Nepal” when a new road is built, will have its world premiere in Toronto. It looks great and I predict it will represent Nepal next year. 

19. NEW ZEALAND- “We Are Still Here” New Zealand has sent seven films in the twelve years since they’ve been invited to the International Oscar competition, sending five films in Pacific Island languages plus two documentaries made abroad (in Afghanistan and China) by documentary filmmaker Pietra Brettkelly. This year, I predict they send “We Are Still Here”, an anthology of eight indigenous short films from various parts of Oceania. It got a NZ cinematic release in February 2023, although it could also potentially represent Australia. Next year, they have a big-budget Maori historical epic- “Ka Whawhai Tonu” that will almost certainly be selected.

20. PAKISTAN- “In Flames” I was so sad that Pakistan failed to be nominated last year for “Joyland”…It was my favorite film on the shortlist last year, and think it likely came in sixth place (though it could also have been ‘good but not great’ thriller “Decision to Leave”). Pakistan’s Oscar committee, chaired by two-time Oscar winner Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy, is one of the world’s most courageous, regularly selecting challenging, controversial films that anger religious conservatives. They also have a demonstrated preference for festival favorites, which is why I’m predicting Cannes Director’s Fortnight horror film “In Flames”, a mother-daughter drama co-produced with Canada.  In second place, I have “Madaari” (aka “The Monkey Dance”), a revenge crime drama. Since they like to court controversy, they could select “Kukri”, the biopic of an infamous child killer which has been banned in certain parts of the country. They don’t usually choose “local” films but if they don’t like these three entries, they could consider short-film anthology “Teri Meri Kahaniyaan” or crime drama “John".

2121. PHILIPPINES- "Ang Duyan ng Magiting" The Philippines is always a tricky one to predict because their mood changes often. Of their past ten submissions, four premiered at major festivals (Venice and Cannes) and four were low-budget "indies" selected from the local Cinemalaya Film Festival. Just one submission came from their more commercial and well-known Metro Manila Film Festival, plus one was a big-budget commercial release ("Heneral Luna"). If they want an arthouse festival film, their main option is “When the Waves are Gone” another 3-hour plus opus from Lav Diaz. Too long for me. “Waves” managed a Best Picture nomination at the Asian Film Awards (losing to “Drive My Car”, another overlong movie), becoming only the second-ever Filipino movie to do so. Lav has a second film at Venice this year but it’s both unlikely to get a local release in time and a prequel to “Waves”, so sending the original would make more sense. If they want a Cinemalaya film, they could look pick this year’s surprise winner, anime drama “Iti-Mapukpukaw” or multi-strand anthology “Ang Duyan ng Magiting” (Jury Prize and Best Ensemble), both co-starring Dolly DeLeon from “Triangle of Sadness”. Most of the eight films from Metro Manila last year had poisonously bad reviews and even the winner- horror film “Deleted”- wasn’t very well reviewer. Only “Family Matters”- about a family taking care of their severely ill father- looks likely to be considered for the Oscars. Finally, Jun Lana- who made “Bwakaw”, the best Filipino submission I’ve ever seen- has two new movies- “Your Mother’s Son”, due to premiere at Toronto in September, and “About Us But Not About Us”, a tense thriller about secrets revealed between a professor and his student over the course of a dinner. My prediction for now is “Ang Duyan ng Magiting”, followed closely by “Iti-Mapukpukaw ”, “When the Waves are Gone”, “Your Mother’s Son” and “Family Matters”. 

22. SINGAPORE- “Tomorrow Is A Long Time” Tiny Singapore had three premieres at major festivals in 2023, so they’ll surely send one of those. While most people are expecting Anthony Chen’s “The Breaking Ice” (Cannes), I predict it will be “Tomorrow Is A Long Time” (Berlin), which has a lower profile but better reviews. Anthony Chen, who is only 39, has already been selected twice and Singapore may want to spread the wealth. “Tomorrow”, about a young man growing up and entering military service while living with his violent, working-class father, is also a much more local effort than “Breaking Ice”, which is set on the China-North Korea border. The third option- “Dreaming & Dying”- just premiered in Locarno.  

23. SRI LANKA- “Peacock Lament” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009. If they choose to return this year, I imagine it will be “Peacock Lament”, which won an award in Tokyo. It’s the story of how poverty drives good people to do terrible things, as a man who supports his entire family becomes involved with child trafficking. Controversial director Visakesa Chandrasekaram won a Jury Prize in Rotterdam for “Sand” but I’m pretty sure that they won’t pick a movie in Tamil to represent them.

24. TAIWAN- “The Abandoned” Taiwan doesn’t have any really strong contenders so far this year and I’m expecting they may send some late release that we haven’t heard of yet. But for now, I’m predicting mystery-thriller “The Abandoned”, about a suicidal woman who becomes embroiled in a mystery when she finds the corpse of a young Thai woman who may have been murdered by a serial killer. Timing would be good; it’s getting released in September, a year after its premiere at the Taipei Film Festival. Other options (in order): “Day Off”, a drama about an aging hairdresser ; “Eye of the Storm” follows a hospital forced to undergo a sudden lockdown, trapping hundreds of doctors, patients and staff together indefinitely; “Pierce”, an intense family drama that hasn’t been released yet; and possibly even “Marry My Dead Body”, a supernatural gay-themed comedy that has been quite popular in Taiwan. Two strong contenders (“Gaga” and “Coo-Coo-043”) appear to have been released too early.

25. TAJIKISTAN- “Fortune” Tajikistan hasn’t sent a film since 2005, which means they’ve been absent from the Oscars longer than any country in the region (tied with Fiji). Their last submission was made by an Iranian director in Tajikistan since the countries speak the same language and there is a great deal more artistic freedom in Tajikistan. There’s a similar film- “Melody”- this year, about a woman who teaches music at a home for children with cancer. But most of the cast and crew are Iranian, so I’ll predict crime drama “Fortune”, about a pair of cops who win the lottery. UPDATE: Tajikistan is back in the race for the Oscars! They selected “Melody”.

26. THAILAND- “Khun Pan 3” Thailand doesn’t have any strong contenders this year but they’ve been a regular participant since 2000 and they use this competition to promote their national cinema, so I’m sure they’ll find something. In the past ten years, they’ve sent four horror movies (probably more than any other country), three arthouse dramas, and three romantic “soap operas”…so that gives you an idea of what they like. They haven’t held their National Film Awards since 2021 so that useful precursor is unavailable. If they want a horror film, it will probably be “Home for Rent”, about murderous tenants terrorizing their landlord. If they want an arthouse film, it could be “Blue Again” (Busan), a three-hour coming-of-age film about an interracial teen (it looks like a mess)….If they want a soap opera, they have twin teen romance “You & Me & Me”….I was planning on predicting “The Murderer”, a murder-mystery-comedy with a Netflix deal by acclaimed director Wisit Sasantieng who has never been sent to the Oscars (he directed my favorite Thai film “Citizen Dog”, as well as the better-known “Tears of the Black Tiger”). But reviews have been middling. Thriller “Hunger” and well-liked sports comedy “Fast & Feel Love” also have Netflix deals….and some are saying “Hunger” is the favorite…..But I’m predicting none of these. I think, in this relatively weak year, Thailand will go with the high production values of big-budget sequel “Khun Pan 3”, the all-star finale of a popular action series, which is said to be the best of the trilogy.. If “Once Upon A Star”, an ode to cinema directed by Nonzee Nimbutr (“Nang Nak”), another popular director who has never been selected, I would move it to the top. But I think it will be eligible next year. In the end, I predict “Khun Pan”, followed by “Blue Again”, “Fast & Feel Love”, “Hunger” and “Home for Rent” rounding out the Top 5.

27. UZBEKISTAN- “Alteration” Uzbekistan has only submitted two films and one was directed by Yalkin Tuychiev. Tuychiev had a new movie at Busan 2022, where it won the new Jiseok Award for established Asian directors. So, I’m predicting “Alteration”, about an Uzbek man- a veteran of the Soviet Afghan War- and his life over the course of decades through Uzbek independence, to the present-day. It also represented Uzbekistan in the “Best Central Asian Film” category in neighboring Kyrgyzstan’s national film awards.

28. VIETNAM- “Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell” Vietnam has two arthouse films on the film festival circuit this year, namely three-hour “Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell”, which won the Camera d’Or at Cannes Director’s Fortnight, and “Glorious Ashes” (Tokyo), about three women living in a rural Mekong River community. I hate slow, overlong arthouse dramas…but I’m predicting “Yellow Cocoon Shell”. However, the Vietnamese Academy almost always surprises by choosing more commercial efforts, including gonzo martial arts films (2019 and 2022) and local comedies (2018 and 2021). So, feminist martial arts movie “Furies” (directed by Veronica Ngo) or family dramedy “The House of No Man” could make it. 

Others?

TURKMENISTAN, which previously banned cinema after independence, is the only former Soviet republic that has never ended the Oscar competition. This year, they’ve had an interesting film on the film festival circuit called “The Red Kurta”, about a bride who gets married without seeing the groom and who insists on wearing her red wedding dress until he returns from war.

OSCAR SUBMISSIONS 2021- The Films from the Asia-Pacific Region (18 films)

 Although the official list of submissions hasn't come out, a variety of sources have reported that there are 93 films in the official online Oscar screening room. We'll look at their chances in five regional groups....

ASIA-PACIFIC (18 films)

EASTERN EUROPE (22 films)

THE AMERICAS (16 films)

WESTERN EUROPE (19 films)

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA (18 films)

I've seen more than half of the Asia-Pacific films so we'll start with those:

FRONTRUNNERS:

1. JAPAN- "Drive My Car"

In a Nutshell: A drama focusing on an acclaimed theatre director dealing with the death of his unfaithful wife, his tough lady chauffeur, and a Chekhov play.  

Pros: Buzz is very, very strong....On most websites, it has by far the best review scores in this region. Western critics have been smitten with the film (less so, Japanese critics) since it won Best Screenplay at Cannes. People say the 3-hours flies by. 

Cons: At 2 hours and 59 minutes, "Drive My Car" is the longest film on the list. But although 3-hour running times are torture for me...I really don't think that the length will bother Oscar voters that much.  Perhaps the intellectualism about life mirroring a Chekhov play won't make sense to everyone...But reviews have been very good regardless and the film feels somewhat safe. 

2. CHINA- "Cliff Walkers"

In A Nutshell: Zhang Yimou makes his first "spy thriller" with this twisty espionage drama set in Japanese-occupied China. 

Pros: Critics say the film is visually beautiful, and Zhang Yimou has done well in this category before. I've heard people say the film is patriotic but not obsessed with nationalism and more digestible for Western audiences. Americans love "twists" and "double-crosses. Nominating "Cliff Walkers" would also be a reminder to China to stop nominating jingoistic action movies and start sending quality films by auteurs like they used to. 

Cons: On paper, this should be a front-runner...but nobody is talking about it (possibly because China selected it so late?). I haven't seen the film yet but a few people say the film is boring. It will come close! 

DARK HORSES:

3. BANGLADESH- "Rehana Maryam Noor"

In A Nutshell: A female professor witnesses a sexual assault...and knows both the perpetrator and the young victim.

Pros: In the days of #MeToo, this is a very relevant story from a fascinating and very different cultural perspective. Bangladeshi films never place this high in the rankings, but this drama that premiered at Cannes has gotten very strong reviews from critics and could come close to making the shortlist...though it's likely to just miss out. Some critics have described as a drama that transforms itself into a thriller.   

Cons: Oscar bias against female-centered stories....Bangladesh is a real underdog and never makes it this far....

4. AUSTRALIA- "When Pomegranates Howl"

In A Nutshell: Filmed in Kabul, Afghanistan, it's about a bright 11-year old boy who becomes the only means of support for his grandmother, mother and sister after his father is killed, but who also dreams of becoming a film star.  

Pros: It's an earnest, charming and bittersweet film made with love and even a little bit of humor. Oscar often likes stories about kids. Recent events in Afghanistan have made this film even more thought-provoking. Where is the cast now? How would the lives of these characters change today?  

Cons: Making a film in Afghanistan is challenging and some of those limitations are evident , particularly in an early sequence featuring a terrorist attack at a wedding. May be too slight to get noticed. 

5. INDONESIA- "Yuni"

In A Nutshell: A bright teenaged girl (Yuni) comes of age in a small Javanese town. While she seeks to go to university, she faces unexpected family and social pressure to get married. 

Pros: This is a surprisingly frank look at sexuality in Muslim-majority Indonesia. The film got very good reviews in Toronto and Arawinda Kirana does a good job at playing the increasingly troubled Yuni. A strong ending. 

Cons: This category rarely goes for stories about women. I found the film a bit hard to get into. 

6. BHUTAN- "Lunana, Yak in the Classroom"

In A Nutshell: A snobbish teacher seeking to emigrate to Australia is sent on a one-year assignment to one of the most remote and least developed villages in the country. 

Pros: This is a real crowdpleaser and it's probably my personal favorite of the ten Asia-Pacific films I've seen. Oscar will fall for its cute village kids and its a very engaging story. With so many serious and depressing films in the running, this will be a real breath of fresh air. Film has a great backstory (though most Oscar voters won't know that) since it was filmed in the real remote village of Lunana and filmmakers didn't have enough electricity to watch the footage until they returned to the editing room weeks or months after filming. Film ends on a strong note. 

Cons: This small story will have its fans but it's probably too light and will get lost in the mix.  

MID-RANGE OPTIONS:

7. KOREA- "Escape from Mogadishu"

In A Nutshell: Based on a true story, the small diplomatic teams of the South and North Korean Embassies in Mogadishu, Somalia reluctantly work together when the government collapses and rebels take over the streets. 

Pros: Unlike many of the festival favorites, this is actually an entertaining and exciting movie. Good production designers have made Morocco look like Somalia. Action sequences please crowds but there is a deeper message within.  

Cons: It often feels more like a standard Hollywood-style action movie rather than an awards contender.    

8. CAMBODIA- "White Building"

In A Nutshell: A large apartment building and its lower-middle-class community are threatened when the building is targeted by developers. 

Pros: Issues of urban displacement and gentrification will resonate in the USA as much as Cambodia. It's an obscure film, but it premiered in Venice and has just been picked up by a small U.S. distributor. 

Cons: No buzz. This sort of small, urban drama from a small country just isn't likely to make the impact necessary to make the shortlist. 

9. KYRGYZSTAN- "Shambala"

In A Nutshell: An 8-year orphan boy lives with his extended family in a remote but beautiful section of the Kyrgyz mountains.  

Pros: Kyrgyzstan excels at this kind of rural village drama with beautiful landscapes and sympathetic rural characters. 

Cons: But Kyrgyzstan has never been shortlisted for any of these beautiful, rural dramas...Variety called it "dramatically uneven" and "old-fashioned".  

10. KAZAKHSTAN- "Yellow Cat" 

In A Nutshell: A gentle, film-loving ex-con (possibly on the spectrum???) falls in love with an eccentric prostitute while on the run from the Kazakh mafia. 

Pros: This bittersweet comedy-cum-road-movie is filled with a charming lead couple, eccentric and original supporting characters, and a cute and engaging story. Film fans will appreciate lots of old-school cinematic references and in-jokes...

Cons: But the references will go over the heads of most viewers under 50....The film is flawed...Some brilliant moments are too short...Some silly moments go on too long....Critical response was positive but divided. 

OUT OF LUCK:

11. TAIWAN- "The Falls"

In A Nutshell: One of the first films about coronavirus, a mother and daughter start to go a little crazy when they are quarantined together in their apartment. 

Pros: The COVID theme is a novelty. Director was shortlisted last year for "A Sun"

Cons: Reviews haven't been anywhere near as strong as "A Sun", with most notices positive but not enough so to make the next round. The trailer for the film looks really interesting but it's difficult to even tell what genre it is. Is it a family drama? An arthouse film? A psychological thriller? Can it blend these tricky themes effectively? 

12. THAILAND- "The Medium"

In A Nutshell: Starting off as a "Paranormal Activity"-style docudrama, the film begins by following a sweet village shaman woman before switching to her stylish niece who appears to be possessed by a spirit.

Pros: The first half is a fascinating academic look at Thai mythology and culture...the finale is a brilliant horror masterpiece. 

Cons: It's difficult to see Oscar going for a horror movie like this one. The gruesome second half, while brilliantly done, will not please some conservative viewers. Some think the film is too long. 

13. INDIA- "Pebbles"

In A Nutshell: A young boy and his abusive alcoholic father travel through deserts and villages in search of the man's wife.  

Pros: The film is a real window onto rural culture in Tamil Nadu. Although I originally had it ranked dead-last in Asia, critical notices have been surprisingly strong. 

Cons: Half the film consists of watching these characters walk around through barren landscapes and vignettes of local villagers doing things like cooking rats and riding buses, with nothing else going on. It's hard to see this advancing. 

14. UZBEKISTAN- "2000 Songs of Farida"

In A Nutshell: A young woman arrives at the home of a wealthy man to become his fourth wife, in early 20th century Uzbekistan. 

Pros: The film looks great and it's an interesting look at a very exotic and foreign culture. 

Cons: The film starts off interesting but eventually becomes confusing and convoluted. 

HAPPY TO PARTICIPATE: 

15. MALAYSIA- "Hail Driver!" (though it deserves to be much higher!)

16. SINGAPORE- "Precious is the Night"

17. HONG KONG- "Zero to Hero"

18. VIETNAM- "Bo Gia"

First of all, I'm glad that all four of these countries submitted films, especially MALAYSIA, which made a great choice, even if the film doesn't have a real chance at being nominated. Focusing on the unusual friendship (relationship?) between a Malay ride-share driver and a Chinese woman, the ultra low-budget B&W indie drama "Hail Driver" is a sobering look at the controversial issue of race relations in Malaysia. Although American audiences won't fully understand the historical and cultural context, this is a brave choice and a wonderful way of promoting the film. Good luck and congratulations, Malaysia! 

Starring an Instagram celebrity, film noir murder mystery "Precious is the Night" has gotten strong notices for its lush period cinematography....but there is less enthusiasm for the story, and the trailer looks quite old-fashioned. Reviews have been all over the map, so it's probably too divisive to be competitive. 

Comedies always have an uphill climb in this category, and "Bo Gia" from Vietnam (also known as "Dad I'm Sorry") looks like a fun but noisy family sitcom, aimed at local audiences. It was one of Vietnam's biggest-ever successes at home and it also did well in the USA in cities with large Vietnamese-American communities, which is probably why it was selected...but it has the weakest reviews of any country on the list (including a 33% on Rotten Tomatoes). 

As for Hong Kong's maudlin "Zero to Hero", the biopic of a respected Paralympics athlete, it's just not a good movie. Despite really wonderful acting performances by Sandra Ng and Ho Yeung Fung (as the young So Wai Wai), this sappy biopic suffers from a terrible script. In a vain effort to be "inspiring", the film shoehorns in virtually every cliche of sports dramas, stories about the handicapped, and Chinese family melodrama. 

Now the statistics:

Genres: 13 dramas, 2 thrillers (China, Korea), 2 comedies (Kazakhstan, Vietnam), 1 horror film (Thailand)

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 28

Number of countries entering films this year: 18

Number of debuts: Zero.

Who Didn’t Submit?: The Philippines failed to send a film for only the second time since 1995 (in 2005, they claimed they failed to receive a notification and thought they weren't invited). Like many Asian countries, cinemas have been closed for over a year due to COVID, and virtual cinema isn't terribly developed. However, they did have some eligible films so it's surprising they didn't send something.

Nepal and Pakistan, both of whom confirmed that they formed selection committees this year, reopened cinemas in September/October 2021 and probably didn't know what would be eligible since the Oscar deadline was October 31 but the release date deadline was December 31. Pakistan is absent for the first time since they rejoined the competition in 2013. 

I also expected Mongolia to send a film, namely "The Woman". Afghanistan has had a range of political problems (though they are well-represented by Australia) and New Zealand may not have had anything eligible. The other four have only sent films once (Fiji, Laos) or twice (Sri Lanka, Tajikistan) in Oscar history. 

Already Seen: I've seen 10 out of 18, and my favorites were the films from Bhutan and Thailand (A-), followed by Australia and Malaysia (B+), Kazakhstan and Korea (B), Indonesia (B-), India and Uzbekistan (C) and the big mess from Hong Kong (D).   

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely "Shambala" from Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz village dramas are always charming. 

Major Festivals: Not many....2 from Cannes (Bangladesh and Japan) and 3 from Venice (Cambodia, Kazakhstan and Taiwan)

Number of Female Directors: Only 2! Granaz Moussavi (Australia) and Kamila Andini (Indonesia) 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 74-year old Kyrgyz director Artykpai Suyundukov is the oldest director in this year's competition. The youngest in the group is probably P.S. Vinothraj (India), 33. 

Number of Languages Represented: We have three films in Mandarin Chinese, plus one each in Bengali, Cantonese, Dzongkha, Indonesian, Japanese, Khmer, Korean, Kyrgyz, Malay, Persian, Russian, Tamil, Thai, Uzbek and Vietnamese

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many....Maybe three?  

Most Likely to Get Their First Spot on the Shortlist: Bangladesh. Eight countries are hoping for their first nomination. 

Buzziest films: "Drive My Car" from Japan

Controversies and Changes: The films from Bhutan and Uzbekistan were submitted last year but were disqualified (Uzbekistan's film was sent in the wrong format and Bhutan's film was selected by the Ministry of Culture rather than an approved committee). I was surprised to see them both back this year. In India, as always, the bitter and jealous filmmakers of films that didn't get picked raised a ruckus. This year, the filmmakers of "Sardar Udham" seized on a remark that the film was "anti-British" and complained to the media that this was the reason they weren't selected. This led to several committee members reiterating that they simply didn't think it was the best film. 

Oscar History:  Zhang Yimou of China has been nominated for two Oscars ("Raise the Red Lantern" and "Hero"), while Chung Mong-hong of Taiwan has been submitted twice (and was shortlisted by "A Sun" last year). 

Most Notable Omissions:  The most acclaimed film missing is "Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy" (Japan)...but director Ryusuke Hamaguchi had two films competing and is still in the race with the higher-profile "Drive My Car".  There were rumors China would send Chen Kaige's nationalist Korean war drama "The Battle at Lake Changjin"...but China chose a better film. Also failing to advance: "Book of Fish" (Korea), "Sweetie, You Won’t Believe It" (Kazakhstan), Locarno winner "Vengeance is Mine, All Others Pay Cash" (Indonesia), and two dramas from Berlinale- "Limbo" (Hong Kong) and "Taste" (Vietnam)

Familiar Faces: There are surprisingly few faces that would be familiar to Western audiences. The most well-known is probably Hong Kong actress Sandra Ng. 

Last year's race:  Hong Kong was the only Asian film to get nominated last year, with "Better Days" (B+), although Pakistan's "Circus of Life" (A) was clearly the best of the lot, and I think Japan's "True Mothers" (A-) was second-best. 

The rest were mostly good-to-average....Bangladesh, Kazakhstan (B+), Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Singapore (B), Cambodia, India and Thailand (B-) and Malaysia (C+) bringing up the rear.