OSCAR SUBMISSIONS 2021- The Films from the Asia-Pacific Region (18 films)

 Although the official list of submissions hasn't come out, a variety of sources have reported that there are 93 films in the official online Oscar screening room. We'll look at their chances in five regional groups....

ASIA-PACIFIC (18 films)

EASTERN EUROPE (22 films)

THE AMERICAS (16 films)

WESTERN EUROPE (19 films)

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA (18 films)

I've seen more than half of the Asia-Pacific films so we'll start with those:

FRONTRUNNERS:

1. JAPAN- "Drive My Car"

In a Nutshell: A drama focusing on an acclaimed theatre director dealing with the death of his unfaithful wife, his tough lady chauffeur, and a Chekhov play.  

Pros: Buzz is very, very strong....On most websites, it has by far the best review scores in this region. Western critics have been smitten with the film (less so, Japanese critics) since it won Best Screenplay at Cannes. People say the 3-hours flies by. 

Cons: At 2 hours and 59 minutes, "Drive My Car" is the longest film on the list. But although 3-hour running times are torture for me...I really don't think that the length will bother Oscar voters that much.  Perhaps the intellectualism about life mirroring a Chekhov play won't make sense to everyone...But reviews have been very good regardless and the film feels somewhat safe. 

2. CHINA- "Cliff Walkers"

In A Nutshell: Zhang Yimou makes his first "spy thriller" with this twisty espionage drama set in Japanese-occupied China. 

Pros: Critics say the film is visually beautiful, and Zhang Yimou has done well in this category before. I've heard people say the film is patriotic but not obsessed with nationalism and more digestible for Western audiences. Americans love "twists" and "double-crosses. Nominating "Cliff Walkers" would also be a reminder to China to stop nominating jingoistic action movies and start sending quality films by auteurs like they used to. 

Cons: On paper, this should be a front-runner...but nobody is talking about it (possibly because China selected it so late?). I haven't seen the film yet but a few people say the film is boring. It will come close! 

DARK HORSES:

3. BANGLADESH- "Rehana Maryam Noor"

In A Nutshell: A female professor witnesses a sexual assault...and knows both the perpetrator and the young victim.

Pros: In the days of #MeToo, this is a very relevant story from a fascinating and very different cultural perspective. Bangladeshi films never place this high in the rankings, but this drama that premiered at Cannes has gotten very strong reviews from critics and could come close to making the shortlist...though it's likely to just miss out. Some critics have described as a drama that transforms itself into a thriller.   

Cons: Oscar bias against female-centered stories....Bangladesh is a real underdog and never makes it this far....

4. AUSTRALIA- "When Pomegranates Howl"

In A Nutshell: Filmed in Kabul, Afghanistan, it's about a bright 11-year old boy who becomes the only means of support for his grandmother, mother and sister after his father is killed, but who also dreams of becoming a film star.  

Pros: It's an earnest, charming and bittersweet film made with love and even a little bit of humor. Oscar often likes stories about kids. Recent events in Afghanistan have made this film even more thought-provoking. Where is the cast now? How would the lives of these characters change today?  

Cons: Making a film in Afghanistan is challenging and some of those limitations are evident , particularly in an early sequence featuring a terrorist attack at a wedding. May be too slight to get noticed. 

5. INDONESIA- "Yuni"

In A Nutshell: A bright teenaged girl (Yuni) comes of age in a small Javanese town. While she seeks to go to university, she faces unexpected family and social pressure to get married. 

Pros: This is a surprisingly frank look at sexuality in Muslim-majority Indonesia. The film got very good reviews in Toronto and Arawinda Kirana does a good job at playing the increasingly troubled Yuni. A strong ending. 

Cons: This category rarely goes for stories about women. I found the film a bit hard to get into. 

6. BHUTAN- "Lunana, Yak in the Classroom"

In A Nutshell: A snobbish teacher seeking to emigrate to Australia is sent on a one-year assignment to one of the most remote and least developed villages in the country. 

Pros: This is a real crowdpleaser and it's probably my personal favorite of the ten Asia-Pacific films I've seen. Oscar will fall for its cute village kids and its a very engaging story. With so many serious and depressing films in the running, this will be a real breath of fresh air. Film has a great backstory (though most Oscar voters won't know that) since it was filmed in the real remote village of Lunana and filmmakers didn't have enough electricity to watch the footage until they returned to the editing room weeks or months after filming. Film ends on a strong note. 

Cons: This small story will have its fans but it's probably too light and will get lost in the mix.  

MID-RANGE OPTIONS:

7. KOREA- "Escape from Mogadishu"

In A Nutshell: Based on a true story, the small diplomatic teams of the South and North Korean Embassies in Mogadishu, Somalia reluctantly work together when the government collapses and rebels take over the streets. 

Pros: Unlike many of the festival favorites, this is actually an entertaining and exciting movie. Good production designers have made Morocco look like Somalia. Action sequences please crowds but there is a deeper message within.  

Cons: It often feels more like a standard Hollywood-style action movie rather than an awards contender.    

8. CAMBODIA- "White Building"

In A Nutshell: A large apartment building and its lower-middle-class community are threatened when the building is targeted by developers. 

Pros: Issues of urban displacement and gentrification will resonate in the USA as much as Cambodia. It's an obscure film, but it premiered in Venice and has just been picked up by a small U.S. distributor. 

Cons: No buzz. This sort of small, urban drama from a small country just isn't likely to make the impact necessary to make the shortlist. 

9. KYRGYZSTAN- "Shambala"

In A Nutshell: An 8-year orphan boy lives with his extended family in a remote but beautiful section of the Kyrgyz mountains.  

Pros: Kyrgyzstan excels at this kind of rural village drama with beautiful landscapes and sympathetic rural characters. 

Cons: But Kyrgyzstan has never been shortlisted for any of these beautiful, rural dramas...Variety called it "dramatically uneven" and "old-fashioned".  

10. KAZAKHSTAN- "Yellow Cat" 

In A Nutshell: A gentle, film-loving ex-con (possibly on the spectrum???) falls in love with an eccentric prostitute while on the run from the Kazakh mafia. 

Pros: This bittersweet comedy-cum-road-movie is filled with a charming lead couple, eccentric and original supporting characters, and a cute and engaging story. Film fans will appreciate lots of old-school cinematic references and in-jokes...

Cons: But the references will go over the heads of most viewers under 50....The film is flawed...Some brilliant moments are too short...Some silly moments go on too long....Critical response was positive but divided. 

OUT OF LUCK:

11. TAIWAN- "The Falls"

In A Nutshell: One of the first films about coronavirus, a mother and daughter start to go a little crazy when they are quarantined together in their apartment. 

Pros: The COVID theme is a novelty. Director was shortlisted last year for "A Sun"

Cons: Reviews haven't been anywhere near as strong as "A Sun", with most notices positive but not enough so to make the next round. The trailer for the film looks really interesting but it's difficult to even tell what genre it is. Is it a family drama? An arthouse film? A psychological thriller? Can it blend these tricky themes effectively? 

12. THAILAND- "The Medium"

In A Nutshell: Starting off as a "Paranormal Activity"-style docudrama, the film begins by following a sweet village shaman woman before switching to her stylish niece who appears to be possessed by a spirit.

Pros: The first half is a fascinating academic look at Thai mythology and culture...the finale is a brilliant horror masterpiece. 

Cons: It's difficult to see Oscar going for a horror movie like this one. The gruesome second half, while brilliantly done, will not please some conservative viewers. Some think the film is too long. 

13. INDIA- "Pebbles"

In A Nutshell: A young boy and his abusive alcoholic father travel through deserts and villages in search of the man's wife.  

Pros: The film is a real window onto rural culture in Tamil Nadu. Although I originally had it ranked dead-last in Asia, critical notices have been surprisingly strong. 

Cons: Half the film consists of watching these characters walk around through barren landscapes and vignettes of local villagers doing things like cooking rats and riding buses, with nothing else going on. It's hard to see this advancing. 

14. UZBEKISTAN- "2000 Songs of Farida"

In A Nutshell: A young woman arrives at the home of a wealthy man to become his fourth wife, in early 20th century Uzbekistan. 

Pros: The film looks great and it's an interesting look at a very exotic and foreign culture. 

Cons: The film starts off interesting but eventually becomes confusing and convoluted. 

HAPPY TO PARTICIPATE: 

15. MALAYSIA- "Hail Driver!" (though it deserves to be much higher!)

16. SINGAPORE- "Precious is the Night"

17. HONG KONG- "Zero to Hero"

18. VIETNAM- "Bo Gia"

First of all, I'm glad that all four of these countries submitted films, especially MALAYSIA, which made a great choice, even if the film doesn't have a real chance at being nominated. Focusing on the unusual friendship (relationship?) between a Malay ride-share driver and a Chinese woman, the ultra low-budget B&W indie drama "Hail Driver" is a sobering look at the controversial issue of race relations in Malaysia. Although American audiences won't fully understand the historical and cultural context, this is a brave choice and a wonderful way of promoting the film. Good luck and congratulations, Malaysia! 

Starring an Instagram celebrity, film noir murder mystery "Precious is the Night" has gotten strong notices for its lush period cinematography....but there is less enthusiasm for the story, and the trailer looks quite old-fashioned. Reviews have been all over the map, so it's probably too divisive to be competitive. 

Comedies always have an uphill climb in this category, and "Bo Gia" from Vietnam (also known as "Dad I'm Sorry") looks like a fun but noisy family sitcom, aimed at local audiences. It was one of Vietnam's biggest-ever successes at home and it also did well in the USA in cities with large Vietnamese-American communities, which is probably why it was selected...but it has the weakest reviews of any country on the list (including a 33% on Rotten Tomatoes). 

As for Hong Kong's maudlin "Zero to Hero", the biopic of a respected Paralympics athlete, it's just not a good movie. Despite really wonderful acting performances by Sandra Ng and Ho Yeung Fung (as the young So Wai Wai), this sappy biopic suffers from a terrible script. In a vain effort to be "inspiring", the film shoehorns in virtually every cliche of sports dramas, stories about the handicapped, and Chinese family melodrama. 

Now the statistics:

Genres: 13 dramas, 2 thrillers (China, Korea), 2 comedies (Kazakhstan, Vietnam), 1 horror film (Thailand)

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 28

Number of countries entering films this year: 18

Number of debuts: Zero.

Who Didn’t Submit?: The Philippines failed to send a film for only the second time since 1995 (in 2005, they claimed they failed to receive a notification and thought they weren't invited). Like many Asian countries, cinemas have been closed for over a year due to COVID, and virtual cinema isn't terribly developed. However, they did have some eligible films so it's surprising they didn't send something.

Nepal and Pakistan, both of whom confirmed that they formed selection committees this year, reopened cinemas in September/October 2021 and probably didn't know what would be eligible since the Oscar deadline was October 31 but the release date deadline was December 31. Pakistan is absent for the first time since they rejoined the competition in 2013. 

I also expected Mongolia to send a film, namely "The Woman". Afghanistan has had a range of political problems (though they are well-represented by Australia) and New Zealand may not have had anything eligible. The other four have only sent films once (Fiji, Laos) or twice (Sri Lanka, Tajikistan) in Oscar history. 

Already Seen: I've seen 10 out of 18, and my favorites were the films from Bhutan and Thailand (A-), followed by Australia and Malaysia (B+), Kazakhstan and Korea (B), Indonesia (B-), India and Uzbekistan (C) and the big mess from Hong Kong (D).   

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely "Shambala" from Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz village dramas are always charming. 

Major Festivals: Not many....2 from Cannes (Bangladesh and Japan) and 3 from Venice (Cambodia, Kazakhstan and Taiwan)

Number of Female Directors: Only 2! Granaz Moussavi (Australia) and Kamila Andini (Indonesia) 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 74-year old Kyrgyz director Artykpai Suyundukov is the oldest director in this year's competition. The youngest in the group is probably P.S. Vinothraj (India), 33. 

Number of Languages Represented: We have three films in Mandarin Chinese, plus one each in Bengali, Cantonese, Dzongkha, Indonesian, Japanese, Khmer, Korean, Kyrgyz, Malay, Persian, Russian, Tamil, Thai, Uzbek and Vietnamese

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many....Maybe three?  

Most Likely to Get Their First Spot on the Shortlist: Bangladesh. Eight countries are hoping for their first nomination. 

Buzziest films: "Drive My Car" from Japan

Controversies and Changes: The films from Bhutan and Uzbekistan were submitted last year but were disqualified (Uzbekistan's film was sent in the wrong format and Bhutan's film was selected by the Ministry of Culture rather than an approved committee). I was surprised to see them both back this year. In India, as always, the bitter and jealous filmmakers of films that didn't get picked raised a ruckus. This year, the filmmakers of "Sardar Udham" seized on a remark that the film was "anti-British" and complained to the media that this was the reason they weren't selected. This led to several committee members reiterating that they simply didn't think it was the best film. 

Oscar History:  Zhang Yimou of China has been nominated for two Oscars ("Raise the Red Lantern" and "Hero"), while Chung Mong-hong of Taiwan has been submitted twice (and was shortlisted by "A Sun" last year). 

Most Notable Omissions:  The most acclaimed film missing is "Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy" (Japan)...but director Ryusuke Hamaguchi had two films competing and is still in the race with the higher-profile "Drive My Car".  There were rumors China would send Chen Kaige's nationalist Korean war drama "The Battle at Lake Changjin"...but China chose a better film. Also failing to advance: "Book of Fish" (Korea), "Sweetie, You Won’t Believe It" (Kazakhstan), Locarno winner "Vengeance is Mine, All Others Pay Cash" (Indonesia), and two dramas from Berlinale- "Limbo" (Hong Kong) and "Taste" (Vietnam)

Familiar Faces: There are surprisingly few faces that would be familiar to Western audiences. The most well-known is probably Hong Kong actress Sandra Ng. 

Last year's race:  Hong Kong was the only Asian film to get nominated last year, with "Better Days" (B+), although Pakistan's "Circus of Life" (A) was clearly the best of the lot, and I think Japan's "True Mothers" (A-) was second-best. 

The rest were mostly good-to-average....Bangladesh, Kazakhstan (B+), Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Singapore (B), Cambodia, India and Thailand (B-) and Malaysia (C+) bringing up the rear. 

2019 Oscar Submissions- ASIA (20 films)

And here are the 20 films from Asia.....

Now everyone knows that “Parasite” from South Korea is the favorite to win the Oscar next year….But what of the other 19 Asian nominees? With one surprise exception, it’s mostly a sad lot.  

FRONT-RUNNERS

1.     SOUTH KOREA- “Parasite”

2.     MONGOLIA- “The Steed”

Okay, so we all know that “Parasite” is top of the list and that KOREA is finally getting nominated. “Parasite” has won the Palme d'Or and numerous other awards, it’s got buzz and box office, and on top of it all, it's a brilliant, wonderful and memorable film.  Everyone who sees it loves it (including me) and even if the elderly voters of the large committee don’t like the edgy, black comedy, it will be saved. It’s as close to a lock as is possible.

But I’d rather talk about MONGOLIA’s unheralded “The Steed”. This was literally the last film to appear on the Oscar list (Mongolia made no formal announcement) and very few people have seen it. This is a really special film about a young boy from a nomadic Mongolian tribe who goes on a long journey to find his beloved horse, which has been stolen by a fraudulent monk.  As we follow the divergent destinies of both the boy and the horse through Mongolia, Russia and Kazakhstan, we meet a series of charming good and evil characters. It may not sound special on paper, but I was getting flashbacks to Eric Valli's Oscar-nominated "Caravan". The film is beautifully shot (with possibly the best acting performance ever by an animal), it has the highest IMDB score of all 93 films, and is certain to appeal to all sorts of Oscar voters, especially older voters and the tech branches. It’s emotionally involving without being sentimental, and the filmmaker is one to watch. I’m not sure Mongolia will make the Top Ten….but it will certainly come awfully close.

VERY UNLIKELY

3.     JAPAN- “Weathering With You”

4.     PHILIPPINES- “Verdict”

These films may have some supporters but not enough that they’ll have any chance to make the finals. Much has been made of the fact that “Weathering With You” is the first anime film from JAPAN to compete in this category since Hayao Miyazaki’s “Princess Mononoke” in 1997. Though it has good reviews, “Weathering” (set to be released in the USA in January 2020), about a girl who may able to control the weather, is unlikely to overcome the animation bias in this category. However, it is likely to use the Foreign Film Oscar buzz to try and earn an Animated Film nod (it is eligible). 

“Verdict”, from the PHILIPPINES, is a police procedural about a battered wife trying to navigate her way through the criminal justice system. Tunisia did this brilliantly last year in "Beauty and the Dogs" but didn’t manage to get nominated. Despite a Special Jury Prize in Venice, the Philippines, with its low-budget “poverty porn” hand-held esthetic, is also unlikely to break through. But good efforts by both.

RUNNER-UPS
5. CAMBODIA- "In the Life of Music"
6. KYRGYZSTAN- "Aurora"
7. KAZAKHSTAN- "Kazakh Khanate: Golden Throne"

These three obscure films will proudly fly their flag, but I can’t see any of them advancing them to the next round. CAMBODIA is sending “In the Life of Music”, a film about how a traditional song played an important role in the lives of three generations set in three different periods in Cambodia's turbulent 20th century history- before, during and after the Khmer Rouge genocide. Probably too small for a nomination. 

From Central Asia, we have a charming little indie from KYRGYZSTAN called "Aurora", about the lives of a bunch of quirky characters at a sanatorium, a bizarre sort of health spa that is a relic of the Soviet era (I've been to one of these and they are bizarre but fun places). The characters are supposedly archetypes of traditional Kyrgyz society, however Oscar voters likely won't know that. People are calling the Kazakh Khanate series (currently two films and a TV series) a Kazakh version of "Game of Thrones". While KAZAKHSTAN scored an unexpected nomination for "Mongol" and the costumes and sets look cool, the effects here look a bit cheap and it's unclear how well audiences will follow a historical sequel. 

MIDDLE OF THE GROUP

8.     INDONESIA- “Memories of My Body”

9.     INDIA- “Gully Boy”

10. PAKISTAN- “Laal Kabootar”

11. SINGAPORE- “A Land Imagined”

These culturally specific films may be in “the middle”, but they are also completely out of luck. INDIA and PAKISTAN have sent well-made films that are likely to get lost in translation. “Laal Kabootar” is an exciting thriller about a cab driver who teams up with a young widow looking for revenge. Shot by a music video director in the hectic, crazy city of Karachi (where I used to live), it looks slick and stylish and would be a great candidate for a US remake. But it's perhaps a bit too edgy and local for AMPAS. “Gully Boy” (on Amazon Prime) has gotten very good reviews, although I’m not really sure why. It’s not a bad film but the plot is predictable, the characters are archetypes and one of the leads (Safeena) is downright unlikable. If you don’t like hip-hop and rap battles (I don't.....and I’m not sure many Oscar voters do), then this film is not for you. Props to the guys who did the English subtitles though….they worked hard to translate the rapid-fire raps….even if it is hard for English-speaking audiences to process so much poetry so quickly.

INDONESIA’s daring “Memories of My Body” is also likely to lose something in translation. I’ve heard that only Javanese audiences will be able to fully appreciate this controversial look at lengger dancers, men who perform female roles in traditional Javanese dance. It’s obviously that a lot of the wordplay does not translate into English, and the occasional narration (by the dancer whose life inspired the film) may annoy some viewers. Still, I thought this queer film from increasingly homophobic Indonesia was great and I'm proud that the Indonesian Academy had the courage to send it, after Islamist groups forced it out of several theatres and banned it in several provinces. Neighboring SINGAPORE won the Golden Leopard at the 2018 Locarno Film Festival, though it’s difficult to understand why…”A Land Imagined” (on Netflix) tries to make a David Lynch-style mystery but ends up just not making much sense at all. Is it a dream? Is it reality? Why is a man stripping naked to run on a treadmill? Do you care? I didn’t. It’s too arty and abstract to score here.

WITHOUT ANY CHANCE

12. UZBEKISTAN- “Hot Bread”
13. TAIWAN- “Dear Ex”

14. NEPAL- “Bulbul”

15. BANGLADESH- “Alpha”

These four small, average melodramas will be quickly forgotten amongst the muddle of 93 films. I’ve seen “Alpha”, “Bulbul” and “Dear Ex”.

Production values are often a problem for poorer countries like BANGLADESH but “Alpha” (watchable on YouTube) represents a step forward for the country, with some beautiful cinematography and imagery. It’s the story of a village artist who finds a dead body and although it starts off well, with a series of interesting and colorful characters, it loses its focus and starts drifting (like the body) about halfway through and never recovers. Nearby NEPAL has sent an interesting film about a lonely young woman bus driver in Kathmandu who begins an extramarital affair six years after her husband leaves to work in Saudi Arabia. It touches on a lot of social issues that I’m sure will resonate in Nepal, but for Western audiences it’s merely a diverting soap opera. I had high expectations for LGBT dramedy “Dear Ex” from TAIWAN, about a (loud and annoying) furious widow angry that her estranged ex-husband has left his money to his gay lover instead of his son. This could be a great idea for a screwball comedy or a tense drama, but the film never commits to either...It's a wishy-washy and surprisingly dull mish-mash.  If you want to see for yourself, it's available on Netflix.

 

Welcome UZBEKISTAN! I haven’t seen “Hot Bread” (a very bad translation...I spoke with  Central Asian friend and he said “Home-Baked Bread” is closer to the actual meaning) but I’m very happy to see Uzbekistan debuting here. Seven films applied to be in the country’s first-ever Oscar entry. I can’t wait to see “Hot Bread”, about a city girl, sent to live with her grandmother in the countryside….but as a small rural drama that hasn’t played anywhere internationally it is highly unlikely to advance.

OH HELL NO!

16. CHINA- “Ne Zha”

17. VIETNAM- “Furie”

18. THAILAND- “Inhuman Kiss”

19.  HONG KONG- “White Storm 2”

20.  MALAYSIA- “M for Malaysia”

Flesh-eating demons…. demonic two-year olds…..Jackie Chan-style martial arts…..These five genre pics have multiple strikes against them that will prevent any of them from being seriously considered. For the third year in a row, CHINA has ignored its beautiful stable of arthouse films to choose a box-office hit with few awards or festival play. “Ne Zha”, a state-of-the-art animated film about a two-year old from hell (literally) rooted in Chinese mythology, has excellent animation and could be a contender in the Animated Film category (it is eligible). But the scatological humor and overall “loudness” (plus internal cartoon competition from Japan) will doom it to the bottom of the list.

Oscar also hates horror films. But THAILAND doesn’t give a f***. You have to give the Thais credit for having zero genre prejudices…They pick horror films, comedies, action movies, odd docudramas….And this year, they have selected “Krasue: Inhuman Kiss”, a rather depressing horror-drama about a young village woman doomed to transform into a krasue, a bloodsucking female demon well-known to anyone in Southeast Asia. The film has more melodrama than horror and although interesting, it’s very, very slow and mediocre CGI effects mar the ending.

 

When “The Third Wife” was unceremoniously pulled from cinemas in VIETNAM prior to completing its 7-day run, action movie “Furie” became the frontrunner to go to the Oscars. “Furie” is a highly entertaining film about a female debt collector (and martial arts extraordinaire) who single-handedly defeats a street gang who kidnap her 10-year old daughter to use in an evil organ-selling scheme. It’s all very fun and campy and the martial arts choreography is great, but it’s not the sort of film that will score here.

“White Storm 2: Drug Lords” is yet another HONG KONG gangster thriller that looks indistinguishable from all the other triad movies they used to send in the 2000s. It hasn’t won any awards and reviews say the film is pretty average and unmemorable…so it’s a mystery why this was chosen at all. Last (and probably least) is MALAYSIA’s jingoistic documentary “M for Malaysia”. This looks like less of a movie and more of a political advertisement for PM Mahathir bin Mohamed, the wily Prime Minister who served from 1981 until his retirement in 2003, only to join the opposition and become PM again in 2018- at the age of 93. It’s a great personal story, but this documentary made by his granddaughter appears to ignore Mahathir’s many, many faults. Probably the least likely of any of the 93 films running.

“Furie” and “Inhuman Kiss” are available now on Netflix, while "White Storm 2" is available on English-subtitled DVD. 

DISQUALIFIED AGAIN?:

21.  AFGHANISTAN- “Hava, Maryam, Ayesha”

War-torn Afghanistan can't seem to catch a break. For the past five years, they've diligently announced a film...but they've only been approved twice. "Utopia" was disqualified for having too much English, but "Parting" (a very good film!) and now "Hava Maryam Ayesha" simply failed to appear on the final list, with no explanation. "Hava Maryam Ayesha", which had the backing of Angelina Jolie, beat out Cannes drama "The Orphanage" to be selected....So why was it not on the list? Did the film fail to arrive in Los Angeles? Nationality issues? I wish someone could find out! 

Now the statistics:

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 25

Number of countries participating this year:  21, if you include Afghanistan which announced an open competition and selected a film but which did not appear on the final list.

Number of debuts: 1- Uzbekistan

Number of countries opting out:  Only five, all of which have only sent films once or twice in Oscar history- Bhutan (1999), Fiji (2005), Laos (2017), Sri Lanka (2003/2009) and Tajikistan (1999/2005). I thought Sri Lanka might return with “House of My Fathers”...but I’m not surprised they didn’t.  

Number I predicted correctly- Only 6- Cambodia, Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Singapore and Taiwan. L 

Already Seen:  10- Korea (A), Mongolia (A-), Indonesia (B+), Vietnam (B), Nepal (B-), Bangladesh (C+), Thailand (C+), Taiwan (C), India (C) and Singapore (C-). I hope to see Hong Kong next month.

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Pakistan’s exciting thriller “Laal Kabootar”

Number of Female Directors:  6 (25%) - Zoya Akhtar (India), Mag Hsu (Taiwan), Sahraa Karimi (Afghanistan, but she was disqualified), Dian Lee & Ineza Roussille (Malaysia) and Caylee So (Cambodia).

Oldest and Youngest Directors: I’m not 100% sure, but almost certainly 68-year old Nasiruddin Yousuff (Bangladesh) and Raymund Ribay Gutierrez (Philippines) who is only 27!

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  21 films in 18 different languages! While China, Singapore and Taiwan sent films that are all or mostly in Mandarin, the others were in Bengali, Cantonese, Filipino, Hindi, Indonesian, Japanese, Kazakh, Khmer, Korean, Kyrgyz, Malay, Mongolian, Nepali, Persian (disqualified), Thai, Urdu, Uzbek and Vietnamese. The Central Asian films also featured Russian as a minority language.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Only 2 or 3.

Buzziest film:  Well, “Parasite” of course.  

Oscar History: Only Bong Joon-ho (Korea) and Garin Nugroho (Indonesia) have competed at this level before. “Mother” deserved Korea’s first Oscar nomination when it was submitted in 2009. “Leaf on a Pillow” competed for Indonesian way back in 1998.

Controversies and Changes:  In a sign of the continuing violations on artistic freedom in Asia, the front-runners for Bangladesh (“Saturday Afternoon”), Vietnam (“The Third Wife”) and Indonesia (“Memories of My Body”) were banned or pulled from cinemas. Props to Indonesia’s liberal Academy for selecting the film anyway. Ironically, India's media- which is notorious for criticizing the film that gets selected- was quiet this year even though the film wasn't very good. 

Most Notable Omissions:  The most notable omission is probably Moscow Grand Prize Winner "Saturday Afternoon" (Bangladesh). Also missing: “Fly By Night” (Malaysia), “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” (China), “The Orphanage” (Afghanistan), “Manta Ray” (Thailand), “The Third Wife” (Vietnam), “We Are Little Zombies” (Japan). 

Familiar Faces: Song Kang-ho, Andy Lau, Veronica Ngo, Ranveer Singh and Ellen Wong (“Scott Pilgrim Saved the World”).

Last year's race:   I saw 11 of the 18 Asian films. The two standouts were “Shoplifters” (Japan) and “Marlina the Murderer” (Indonesia). “Burning” was certainly thought-provoking but I thought it needed some judicious editing. “Buffalo Boys” and “The Tailor” were silly but fun. As for Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan and Thailand….I was not a fan at all. Part of the reason Asian countries don’t get nominated much is that their selections are way off. 

NEXT: The films from Africa and the Middle East

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS- Asia

 And here's the last group of predictions, from the 24 countries of Asia.

Unfortunately, I'm going on vacation this weekend, so I'm going to have to leave India blank and three incomplete (China, South Korea and the Philippines). I'll try to finish when I get back, if they haven't already announced.

1.  AFGHANISTAN- “Black Kite”  Although they haven’t always met all Oscar requirements, the plucky Afghan Academy has managed to send nominees six years in a row, despite Afghanistan’s precarious security situation. This year, I expect they will send “Black Kite”, a low-budget drama made by Canada-based Tarique Qayumi that played at Toronto 2017. It follows the lives of a kite-maker and his family from the happy days of the 1960s through the war and destruction of the Taliban years and beyond. Also possible is Afghan-American Sonia Nassery Cole’s new refugee drama “I Am You”, though I don’t think that will be finished in time. Siddiq Barmak’s new film “The Postman” is in pre-production and will hopefully be selected next year.

2.  BANGLADESH- “Haldaa” Bangladesh has a half-dozen potential contenders, including new films by three of the seven living Bangladesh directors who have been picked before- “Death of a Poet”, “Haldaa” and “No Bed of Roses”. I’m predicting they send “Haldaa” about the struggles of rural fishermen faced with encroachment and environmental pollution. Unlike other Bangladeshi films which sometimes struggle with production values, the trailer looks beautiful, and it features a cast that have appeared numerous other submissions. The only handicap is that it doesn’t seem to have been made by the main film studio. Only one Bangladeshi submission since 2005 (“Television”) wasn’t made by that studio, and it had the backing of some major awards. In second-place will be “Komola Rocket” (made by Impress Telefilms), about a group of passengers from all strata of Bangladeshi society riding a steamer ship down-river. Rounding out the Top Five options: (in order) “No Bed of Roses” (Moscow, Shanghai), starring Bollywood actor Irrfan Khan, which was banned but finally approved for screening last October, “Sohagi’s Ornament” (Best Bangladeshi Film, Dhaka Film Festival), about a young boy seeking work in the capital, which is tryiung to be the first female-helmed Bangladeshi Oscar submission, and “Chitkini” (Rest in Silence), a rural drama set in the remote north of the country. Less likely: indie “Death of a Poet”, Agatha Christie reimagining “Dangling By a String” (looks like fun!) and popular Bollywood-style romance “Swopnajaal”.

3.  BHUTAN- “Honeygiver Among the Dogs” Tiny Bhutan sent one (fantastic!) film in 1999 but there was a rumor that they were reconvening an Oscar committee last year. I predicted “Honeygiver” last year, but it failed to get a domestic release until April 20^th, 2018. This film noir about a detective investigating the disappearance of a Buddhist nun has gotten great reviews and has been featured at a number of international festivals since its Busan premiere last year. As a big fan of Khynetse Norbu (“Travellers & Magicians”), I’d love to see Bhutan back. The two big winners at the National Film Awards- “Nge Tsawai Lama” and “Dhaari Nhaaba”- won’t come into play.

4.  CAMBODIA- “Loung Preah Sdech Korn” I remember when I used to struggle to find even one film that Cambodia had produced in a given year. This year, they have three strong contenders to represent the Kingdom. “Graves Without A Name” is a new documentary by Oscar nominee and Khmer Rouge survivor Rithy Panh, who directed “The Missing Picture” and co-produced “First They Killed My Father”. His latest documentary opens the Venice Film Festival and is about a teenaged boy who tries to find the graves of the family members murdered during the Khmer Rouge genocide. “In the Life of Music”, co-starring Cambodian-Canadian actress Ellen Wong (“Scott Pilgrim”, “GLOW”), is about how a Cambodian song affects the lives of three different generations of Cambodians. It’s already lobbying to be nominated at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. Last is “Loung Preah Sdech Korn”, a 15^th century royal historical drama reportedly the most expensive Cambodian production ever made, and Cambodia’s first foray into costume drama. I’m predicting “Loung Preah Sdech Korn” because of its budget and the reported support from Cambodia’s president-cum-dictator Hun Sen. However, they may not be able to get it subtitled in time, leaving the door open to Rithy Panh.

5.  CHINA- "Shadow" It's difficult to see China going with anything other than Zhang Yimou's latest epic, "Shadows", which premieres in Venice. Haven't seen any reviews so far, but it (as always) looks beautiful. 

6.  HONG KONG- “No. 1 Chung Ying Street” It’s not been a great film year for Hong Kong. Nothing has made a mark at film festivals, most major directors have skipped this year and those movies that have premiered haven’t are cookie-cutter gangster movies and romantic comedies. I have a feeling that the HK selection will either be a new movie that they release at the very last moment in one theatre, or a “cheat” by sending in a majority-China co-production. Perhaps the surprise release could be Fruit Chan’s mysterious new martial arts movie “The Invincible Dragon” which was originally supposed to premiere in August 2018, but didn’t? Not sure. If they want to send a Hong Kong movie that has actually been released, I really have no idea. Perhaps low-key 60s drama “No. 1 Chung Ying Street”, drawing parallels between anti-UK protests in the 1960s and the debate between pro-China and pro-autonomy protesters…..Or  Donnie Yen’s latest action drama “Big Brother”? Splashy fantasy film "The Thousand Faces of Dunjia"? None of these seem particularly likely and I expect Hong Kong will be selecting something nobody even knew was eligible. Let’s do “Chung Ying” as a placeholder.

7.  INDIA- TBD

8.  INDONESIA- “Sultan Agung” Indonesia has been fairly quiet this year at film festivals, although action-western “Buffalo Boys” has gotten some play at Asian-themed film festivals. But with a Singaporean director, average reviews and half its dialogue in English, that’s a non-starter.  The three most prominent films are (in alphabetical order): (1)- Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts. The Indonesian “Kill Bill”, this feminist western about a woman who defends herself against a vicious gang of men premiered at Cannes 2017 before opening in Indonesian cinemas in November. It’s original and dramatic and the highest-profile choice; but the Indonesian Academy has been skewing conservative lately….(2)- “The Seen and the Unseen. A youth drama about a Balinese girl getting over the loss of her twin brother, it played at a Berlinale side-bar this year. Said to be artsy, symbolic and culturally interesting, it’s the sophomore film of Kamila Andini, whose father and husband are both famous directors whose films have represented Indonesia at the Oscars. (3)- “Sultan Agung”, a big period drama set in 17^th century Java, when a controversial but revered Sultan ruled and fought off initial incursions by the Dutch. While reviews have not been universally positive, the production values are some of Indonesia’s best, and the director was selected for another period piece a few years ago. None of these are likely to net Indonesia its first-ever Oscar nomination, but I think the costumes and sets of “Sultan Agung” will beat out the controversial girl power of “Marlina the Murderer”. Unlikely but possible: Borneo tale “Terbang” and romantic drama “Dilan 1990”.

9.  JAPAN- “Shoplifters” Japan announced their Oscar pick early this year, choosing Hirokazu Koreeda’s Palme d’Or winner “Shoplifters” before I had a chance to make a prediction. This was surprising only because Japan never goes for the obvious choice. Despite making some of the world’s greatest films, they usually select a rather obscure and forgettable film. They ignored their past two Palme d’Or winners (“Ballad of Narayama” and “The Eel”, both by Shohei Imamura who was picked twice by Japan for more obscure efforts). In the past seven years, I’ve seen six of their nominees. They selected four “good but not great” movies I barely remember seeing (“100-Yen Love”, “The Great Passage”, “Her Love Boils Bathwater” and “Postcard”), one mediocre one (“The Light Shines Only There”) and one that was downright bad (“Nagasaki: Memories of My Son”). So, I’m excited that they chose “Shoplifters”, by one of my favorite Japanese directors. It’s what they should have chosen. Other films that got ignored in a relatively slow year: mystery-thriller “The Crimes That Bind”, anime-drama “Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms”, comedy “Oh Lucy!” (co-starring Josh Hartnett) and Naomi Kawase’s “Vision” (co-starring Juliette Binoche). 

10.  KAZAKHSTAN- “Talan” Kazakhstan has one of the more confusing races in Asia. Most people think it will be “Ayka”, because it played at the Cannes Film Festival and won Best Actress- certainly a major event for Kazakh cinema. It’s also the long-awaited sophomore film by director Sergey Dvortsevoy, who directed “Tulpan”, one of Kazakhstan’s best-loved films. However, “Ayka”, about a desperately poor Central Asian mother living in Moscow, is not the sort of super-nationalist historical drama out of the national film studio that Kazakhstan usually sends. Remember that the acclaimed “Harmony Lessons”, which did not necessarily show Kazakhstan in the best possible light, was snubbed. Indie director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- corruption drama “The Gentle Indifference of the World” (Cannes) and the surreal, weird “Night God” (Moscow) but I can’t see them selecting them for the same reasons. I actually think “Ayka” will face its strongest competition from two more traditional dramas, namely “A Call to Father”, about the life of a young boy with emotional problems, who comes from a poor dysfunctional family, and “Talan”, a historical drama about two orphan boys who encounter war and famine during Soviet times. “Talan” represented Kazakhstan in the Central Asia section of Kazakhstan’s biggest film festival, while “A Call to Father” was the Kazakh submission for the Russian Nika Awards (where it was nominated). Or they could choose something brand-new like “The River”, due to premiere in Toronto. It’s unclear. For now, I’m predicting “Talan”, because it focuses on history and because the director is a well-known actor.

11.  KOREA- "1987" Tight race and the Koreans are never predictable. May not be my final prediction, as many are also predicting "The Spy Gone North" and "Burning". 

12.  KYRGYZSTAN- “Night Accident” Kyrgyzstan has submitted some of my personal favorites over the years, and the poor, remote country has likely come very closely to an Oscar nomination on more than one occasion. This year, they have two award-winners in contention, namely “Night Accident” (Grand Prize in Tallinn Black Nights) and “Suleiman Mountain” (Winner of the East of the West in Karlovy Vary). Both films are slice-of-life dramas about life in the remote villages and highways of Kyrgyzstan. Though “Suleiman” (about a loutish husband juggling two wives) has the bigger name, I’m predicting they send the more low-key “Night Accident” (a road movie) because “Suleiman” has a Russian director. However, they’re both strong contenders. Dark horse: musical “Song of the Tree”, which played in Moscow.

13.  LAOS- “Moon City” Laos submitted a film for the first time last year and what a debut it was! Creepy, twisty horror film “Dearest Sister” was one of the most entertaining and most enjoyable films of last year’s competition. Lao-American director Mattie Do has a new movie in pre-production, but this year hasn’t yet seen a large number of new features. The Vientiane Film Festival didn’t have any new domestic features and the only eligible film I know of is superhero comedy “Moon City: The Rise of Ninja Attack”. As this is an unlikely choice for Oscar, they may skip and wait until next year. For a good article on Laos’ emergent film industry, see here.

14.  MALAYSIA- “Tomorrow” Malaysia gave no reason for not sending a film last year, despite strong notices for “You Mean the World to Me”, which was probably not sent because it’s in Chinese (spoken by 23% of Malaysia’s population) and not Malay, which receives affirmative action and special privileges in the country. However, it’s odd that they didn’t send “Adirawaku”, which was easily the best-reviewed Malay-language film of the year, either. Their National Film Awards were postponed from September to December, so there will be no precursors….If they return, I expect it will be “Tomorrow” (Pulang), a drama about a sailor who travels the world for 61 years, while his devoted wife waits for him at home, “Jibam”, about a special-needs child (similar to their last entry in 2016), or “Dukun”, a horror-thriller by the director of the previously submitted “Bunohan”. I expect “Tomorrow” has the edge.

15.  MONGOLIA- “Out of Paradise” It’s extremely rare that films from remote Mongolia films make it to international film festivals. So, when they win the Grand Prize at a Class-A Festival- even one of the smaller ones- it’s pretty much a certainty it will be their pick for their Oscars. “Out of Paradise”, about a poor couple on a desperate road trip to get medical attention for a difficult pregnancy, won the Grand Prize at Shanghai. Since Mongolia rejoined the Oscars last year after a 12-year absence, you can expect to see this film on the longlist.

16.   NEPAL- “Hari” Nepal has become a regular contributor to this category since 2013, sending three arthouse films and two very local dramas. They don’t seem to consider their Bollywood-style musicals, romances and action movies, which make up their majority of their filmmaking industry. That’s probably a good idea, but it does narrow their options from 100 to just one or two. Nepal hasn’t had any films at any international festivals this year, and they were the only country absent from the SAARC Film Festival (even tiny Maldives sent a movie) For the Oscars this year, I think the two frontrunners are “Bhor”, a social drama about the pain and suffering Nepali brides endure under the traditional “dowry” (bride price) system, and “Hari”, a quirky drama about an overly superstitious and unquestioningly religious man. These both seem like the sort of movies Nepal has sent in the past. Other choices include romance “Bobby”, sports drama “Damaru Ko Dandibiyo” or mega-hit wedding comedy “Shatru Gate”. I think “Hari” will ultimately be selected.

17.  PAKISTAN- “Cake” I spent a year living in Pakistan and this year I have seen my Pakistani friends raving about two new films that they say herald a new kind of Pakistani cinema. One of these is “Cake”, about a middle-class family (yes! Pakistan has a middle-class!) consisting of two aging parents and their adult children facing normal, everyday problems. No terrorism, no honor killings, no Bollywood-style tunes….Just a family drama. And I think this will resonate with American audiences too. The other film- “Motorcycle Girl”, is about a young woman who decides to travel around Pakistan by motorcycle. Though this is perfectly legal, it is virtually unheard of in most parts of Pakistan. This film hasn’t been as big as “Cake”, but it does show off the natural beauty of Pakistan. I think the Pakistanis will select one of these two, but they could also go with pro-military drama “Parwaaz Hay Junoon” or sexual assault drama “Verna”, but I think both of these would be too controversial for the selection committee.

18.  PHILIPPINES- "Balangiga: Howling Wilderness" It's rare that the two biggest film awards in the Philippines award Best Picture to the same movie, but they did this year. Still, I haven't researched the Philippines yet, so this is just a placeholder. 

19.  SINGAPORE- “A Land Imagined” Singapore’s biggest film of the year is “Crazy Rich Asians”. It may be an American movie, but the film (based on the bestseller book by Singaporean Kevin Kwan) is very much a love letter to Singapore, and brought back so many memories for me of the cityscapes, the food and the talented actors there. Like Mongolia (see above), it’s a huge achievement when a tiny country wins at a Class-A Festival, so it’s pretty certain they’ll select “A Land Imagined”, which won the Golden Leopard a few weeks ago in Locarno. This film noir mystery about a detective searching for missing migrant workers has not gotten very good reviews and it’s victory was a bit of a surprise. But the Golden Leopard and an overall weak year should make this an easy choice. It’s main competition is Eric Khoo’s “Ramen Teh” , a Japanese co-production, and a celebration of Singapore and Japanese cuisine. Oscar loves foodie movies, so this would arguably be a better choice. Autism drama “Wayang Kids” and raucous wedding comedy “The Big Day” are eligible but unlikely.

20.  SRI LANKA- “The Goddess” Sri Lanka produces dozens of films annually, but they have only entered the Oscar race twice, with two rather obscure and forgotten titles. This year, they re-started their dormant Film Awards where the winner was “28”, a film  that I predicted to represent Sri Lanka in 2015, but which didn’t get a domestic release until June 2017. In any case, it’s not eligible. In the unlikely event that they return, it would probably be with “The Goddess” (Vaishnavee), made by the widow of Sri Lanka’s most famous director Lester James Peries and based on a story he wrote. It’s a fantasy-drama about a puppeteer who carves a puppet in memory of the fiancée who abandoned him, which then comes to life.  Other options: romantic drama “The Day We Will” and scam-artist tale “The Undecided” joined “The Goddess” in a special Sri Lanka retrospective at the Moscow Film Festival. Other possibilities include national reconciliation drama “Her. Him. The Other”,  and “Joyful Journeys”, about an 85-year old grandfather getting to know his young grandson.

21.  TAIWAN- “Father to Son” This year is likely to be a race between glossy crime drama “The Bold, Corrupt and the Beautiful” and the new Hou Hsiao-hsien produced drama “Father to Son”. “The Bold, Corrupt and the Beautiful” won the Golden Horse Award last year and has gotten very strong notices for its story of murder, corruption and political intrigue, revolving around a widow who becomes the head of a crime empire.  “Father to Son” debuted this year in Rotterdam and is executive produced by Hou Hsiao-hsien, whose painfully languorous arthouse films have represented Taiwan three times. In the film, a dying Taiwanese man travels to Japan to find news of his long-absent father, while another Hong Kong man travels to Taiwan to search for him. With “Bold”’s political themes, “Father” is perhaps a more relatable story.  Taiwan has made some odd choices lately including last year’s LGBT well-meaning documentary “Small Talk”, which was more of a therapy session than a film. So, it’s definitely possible they’ll select the bizarre “Great Buddha”, a B+W indie black comedy that won the 2017 Taipei Film Festival, or “Love Education” (Busan) by Sylvia Chang (selected twice), a family drama set in Mainland China about the conflict between two widows who shared the same husband. LGBT dramedy “Dear Ex”, which won the Taipei Film Festival in 2018 won’t be released in time, while “Angels Wear White” may be considered too much of a Mainland Chinese film. I think "Father to Son" and "Bold" are in a virtual tie, but predict "Father" has the edge.

22.  TAJIKISTAN- “Narrow” Tajikistan has entered the race twice before, but never since 2005. Their national film festival only runs every other year so they are probably preparing any national premieres they have for this year’s edition that opens in October. If they chose to send a film, the only one I’m aware of is “Narrow”, a drama that played at the Eurasia International Film Festival in neighboring Kazakhstan. It’s about a 9-year old boy who famous social exclusion because his family has not gotten him circumsized per Islamic custom.

23.   THAILAND- “Samui Song” Thailand doesn’t have much to pick from this year and I’m kind of confused as to what they would send. However, it’s always foolish to bet against Pen-ek Ratanaruang, who has represented Thailand four times (five if you count 2006 when the Thais changed their mind after picking “Invisible Waves”). Cult thriller “Samui Song” played in Venice Days and has some high-profile Thai actors in it. I’m just not sure what else Thailand would pick. Manta Ray” premiered in Venice Horizons but surely won’t get a release at home by September 30. “Khun Pan 2” looks good but is a silly action sequel. “7 Days” sounds like a melodrama version of “Quantum Leap”. It’s “Samui Song” by default. Maybe?

24.  VIETNAM- “Song Lang” Vietnam’s most widely anticipated film of the year is “The Third Wife”, which will have its World premiere at the Toronto Film Festival on September 7. Filmed with the backing of Spike Lee’s production company, it’s a 19^th century period piece about a 14-year old girl chosen to be the third wife of a wealthy landowner. Make no mistake about her name- director Ash Mayfair is born and raised in Vietnam. Vietnamese films have often struggled to get a qualifying release so it’s highly unlikely it will be released before October 1^st. Count on it being chosen next year. Vietnam doesn’t have too many other films to choose from. I think two new nostalgic dramas- “Song Lang” and “The Tailor” will be the main films considered. “The Tailor” (Busan) won Best Picture at the Vietnamese Silver Kite Awards and has been compared to a Viet “Devil Wears Prada” for its comedy-drama story of fashion designers rejecting and then re-appreciating Vietnamese traditional dress, the ao dai. “Song Lang” is more concerned with music than fashion, focusing on a boy growing up in post-war Saigon, and obsessed with traditional cải lương Vietnamese folk music. Somehow, I think the more serious, male-oriented “Song Lang” will beat out the better-known “Tailor”. Less likely: melodrama “The Mother-in-Law”.

Possible Debuts:

25.  UZBEKISTAN- “Fortitude” Uzbekistan is the most important Asian country that has never sent a film to the Oscars. With the new President opening the country up, it’s possible they could send “Fortitude”, a drama that has been representing the country at a number of festivals in the former USSR, including Moscow, Eurasia (in Kazakhstan) and the Golden Apricots (in Armenia). It’s about a dying man seeking to make amends with his estranged son before he dies. Also possible "Passing Rain" from tiny Macau and "Mystery of Burma" from Burma (Myanmar).