OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the American Submissions

 And here are the predictions for Canada and the countries of Latin America:

1.   ARGENTINA- “Argentina 1985” Argentina loves Ricardo Darin. He hasn’t made a movie in three years (they sent his last one, “Heroic Losers”) but he’s back on screen with “Argentina 1985”, a weighty drama set to premiere in the main competition at Venice and then in Argentina cinemas at the end of September. Besides Darin and the Venice label, the film is a dramatic thriller about lawyers facing off against the Argentina military dictatorship, which Argentinians will remember is the same setting that won them their first Oscar. And Santiago Mitre is a well respected director what has scripted several Argentinian submissions and come close to being selected himself for films like “The student” and “Paulina”. It should be an easy choice, but for one dark horse- “Official Competition”, the Spanish comedy starring Antonio and Penelope, but directed by the Argentinian pair selected in 2016. Argentina tends to be one of the last countries to select their film, while spain usually decides weeks earlier. There is a chance that if Spain ignores their front runner (as they often do), Argentina may decide to snap up what they believe will be an easy nom. But “1985” is still likely. Unlikely: “Sublime” (Berlin) and “The Substitute” (San Sebastian). 

2.   BOLIVIA- “Utama” Bolivia has had a great film year but winning the Sundance Film Festival probably has the race locked up for “Utama”, which is mentioned as a dark horse for Bolivia’s first Oscar nomination, which would mean so much here (where I’m living now). The only pitfall is that it hasn’t been screened here yet, but I don’t see that as an obstacle. If for some reason it’s release is postponed until next year, they could send “El visitante” (Beat Screenplay, Tribeca) or “Sun and Daughter” (Munich). 

3.   BRAZIL- "Mars One" I wanted to wait for Brazil's (usually very long) shortlist to come out, but other countries are starting to announce so I'll go out on a limb with Brazil and say that they'll choose Afro-Brazilian family drama "Mars One" which has gotten warm notices at U.S. film festivals like Sundance. It's also anti-Bolsonaro so it depends who is on Brazil's committee.  But part of me wants to predict crazy horror-musical "Medusa", which premiered at Cannes last year. It won Best Picture at the Rio de Janeiro Film Prizes and would be a much more visible contender. Brazil has dumped the favorite and gone with a dark horse the past two years (one good, one bad). Other very possible films: "Duetto", about an Italian-Brazilian family, and "Pedro" a glossy 19th century historical drama about the founder of Brazil's short-lived royal dynasty.  

4.  CANADA- “Falcon Lake” The Canadian race is confusing because they have a lot of Canadian films premiering at Toronto (which is normal) and most of the films don’t seem to have any trailers or any indication of whether they’ll be contenders. One of the few Toronto films that (a)- is not in English, (b)- has buzz and (3)- has already played at festivals is “Falcon Lake” (Cannes), a French-language coming-of-age thriller. It seems to check all the right boxes and although Canada has plenty of other films to choose from, this really seems to be the frontrunner.  Other French-language options: hit man thriller “Confessions”, teenage escort drama “Noemie Says Yes”, based-on-a-true-story embezzlement drama “Norbourg” and my choice for runner-up, “Rosie”, an indigenous drama debuting at Toronto starring a cute little orphan girl.  

5.   CHILE- “1976” Chile will probably choose because two films that debuted at the Cannes Film Festival. “1976” is a new film set during the dark days of the Pinochet dictatorship when a middle-class woman accepts a priest’s request to shelter a fugitive. Reviews have been mixed, but the same went for “Spider”, which Chile sent three years ago. “My Imaginary Country”, by Patricio Guzman, is a documentary about the 2019 leftist protests that nearly brought down Chile. Chile got a nomination for a documentary two years ago (though that was a much lighter one), 81-year old Patricio Guzman has won a Goya but never been sent to the Oscars, and- politically- one of the student protest leaders is now President. Dark horse: “Blanquita”, about a Catholic Church scandal, is set to premiere in Venice but there’s no word if it will be eligible this year or next year. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Chile: “The Cow Who Sang a Song Into the Future” (Sundance), a well-reviewed environmental drama, and “Regresar al Final” a family drama set during COVID confinements, which were particularly strict in Chile.

6.   COLOMBIA- “Amparo” With many of Colombia’s major directors working in television, I’m pretty sure they will go with Simon Mesa Soto, a young director who won the Cannes Palme d’Or for Best Short Film in 2014 at the tender young age of 27. Mesa Soto made his feature debut with “Amparo” at Cannes 2021 in the Critics Week section, a film about a mother who finds her 18-year old son is missing, and learns he has been drafted into the military while she was at work. I predicted it last year but it didn’t premiere in Colombia until April 2022. In a very close second place, "Kings of the World", about the lives of a group of teens in Medellin. Its set to premiere at San Sebastian in Spain, and in Colombian cinemas in October. In third and fourth place are two more feature debuts- “La Jauria” (Cannes 2022, Critics Week Grand Prize), about a juvenile detention center in the jungle, and “The Red Tree” (Seattle/Tallinn Black Nights)- about a young man in search of his mother who abandoned the family.  Rounding out the Top Six: “The Rust” (La Roya), about a young man growing up in the rural countryside, and “City of Wild Beasts”, which was just released on Hulu and HBOMax. I see some people predicting Cannes drama “Un varon”, but I don’t think reviews are good enough.

7.  COSTA RICA- “Domingo and the Mist" (Domingo y la niebla) Costa Rica is confusing because I can’t find any information about release dates and I don’t know what’s eligible. What I can say is that teen pregnancy drama “Aurora” won Best Costa Rican Film in 2021 and “La Pasion de Nella Barrantes”, about a woman descending into madness due to religious devotion, won it in 2022. “Domingo and the Mist” debuted at Cannes 2022, and “Volvio”, a well-reviewed comedy about a man awakening from a 19-year coma, is the only one I can confirm was released in theatres. Last but not least, “La hija de la muerte” is based on a well-regarded national novel and is coming out at the end of the year. There’s no way of knowing which of these five films will go forward without knowing what’s eligible. On the off chance that all five are released in 2022, I’d predict “Domingo” and “La hija” as the two frontrunners. For now, let’s assume the Cannes label pushes environmental drama “Domingo & the Mist” to the front of the queue.

8.  CUBA- “The Foam of Days” (La Espuma de los Dias) Cuba submits films about half the time, most recently in 2020. If they send anything, I predict it will be “The Foam of Days”, a drama about the friendship between four men, one of whom has just been released from prison. It screened in Cuba in January so it’s eligible. Last year’s Habana Film Festival didn’t have a single Cuban feature in competition. The highest-profile film is sci-fi indie “Corazon Azul”, but I believe that’s by a dissident director. If they’re released, we could see comedy “Riquimbili” (by one of Cuba’s most prominent regime-allied directors) or “Bajo un sol poderoso”, about a filmmaker dealing with the ghosts of characters from his films.

9.   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “La hembrita” The DR has been regularly sending films to the Oscars since 2011 and in these eleven years, they’ve send three films by Leticia Tonos, three films by José Maria Cabral (my favorite) and two films by the directing team of Israel Cardenas and Laura Amelia Guzman. So, that means that “Parsley” (Cabral) and “La hembrita” (Cardenas/Guzman) are statistically the frontrunners. However, I think this year they’d like to send a film by somebody new for the first time since 2018, namely “Carajita”, which won Best Latin American Film in Guadalajara and Miami in 2022. This drama about race and social classes focuses on a girl and her nanny and has very good reviews…but there’s one problem- directors Ulises Porra and Silvina Schnicer are from Spain and Argentina respectively and so it s a lot of the crew. So it’s on the bubble. Picking Cabral’s “Parsley” would also cause a headache, as the film’s focus- a historical massacre of Haitians- is controversial in the DR. Rounding out their choices are music drama “Flow Calle”, directed by a very popular actor, upcoming thriller “Broma de la Justicia”, and “Bantu Mama”, about an Afro-Dominican woman rescued by three teenagers. I think they’ll want to send “Carajita” but will end up with “La hembrita”, about a wealthy woman taking care of her maid’s granddaughters, which would mean Cardenas & Guzman repping the country two years in a row.

10.  ECUADOR- “Lo invisible” Ecuador has now becoming a regular participant in this category, missing just one year since 2013. Two previously submitted directors have promising new movies this year- “Lo invisible” (Toronto), a horror-drama about post-partum depression, and “Octopus Skin”, about a pair of creepy twins. Release dates are confusing but it looks like “Octopus” will open in December, which is too late to compete this year. There’s also historical costume drama “Camino a la libertad” whose release was delayed years by COVID, fantasy-drama “Al Oriente” (Venice 2021), and a weird erotic drama called “The Fever”. I think this is a dead heat between “Lo invisible”, which has the festival cache, and “Camino a la libertad”, which is a bigger, splashier film but one made for local audiences. Based on their previous, gritty indie submissions, I’ll pick “Invisible”.

11.  GUATEMALA- “Roza” Guatemala submitted two films by Jayro Bustamente since 2015, including the shortlisted “La Llorona” which many pundits believe probably came in sixth place in 2020. I’m predicting “Roza”, a film about a migrant worker who returns home to a family and a community that has moved on without him. Two other options: Jayro Bustamente wrote coming-of-age drama “1991” which I predicted last year…but I can’t find a release date; U.S. director Justin Lerner has repped Guatemala at several festivals with “Cadejo Blanco”, which may or may not meet the nationality requirements.

12.  HAITI- “July 7” Haiti submitted a film for the second time last year with “Freda” (Cannes UCR). They have a rather exciting film in post-production- “July 7”- about a woman investigating the real-life assassination of the Haitian President Jovenel Moise in his home in July 2021. But there’s no release date and Haiti isn’t likely to be able to finish the film quickly. Unlikely: if they really want to send something that’s already released, they could send “Vakans”, a rom-com about wealthy young Haitian expats living in Miami.

13.   HONDURAS- “Indomita Salvaje” Honduras has sent films three times in the past five years. They have two new low-budget action movies in cinemas this year (“Esperanza de Honor” and “Indomita Salvaje”) and a well-received indigenous short film (“Bili Kat”) but their selection is a lot worse than last year (which they skipped) so I can’t really see them sending any of these.  

14.   MEXICO- “Bardo” Alejandro Iñárritu has made four feature films in the United States, one in Spain and just one (“Amores Perros”) in his native Mexico. All six netted Oscar nominations. Three of the four American films netted Best Picture nominations (“Birdman” won) and he won Best Director twice in a row for “Birdman” and “The Revenant”. Both Spanish-language films made the Final Five in the Foreign Film category, and both probably came in second place. So, it would be foolish to bet against “Bardo”, his first film made in Mexico in over twenty years, one of the favorites at this year’s Venice Film Festival and a hotly anticipated title on Netflix. This is pretty much a lock. On the off chance, the Mexican Academy doesn’t like this as-yet-unseen film, they could choose “Dos Estaciones” (Sundance)…but I’m sure this will be “Bardo”.

15.   NICARAGUA- “Daughter of Rage” (La hija de todas las rabias) Nicaragua has only sent one film in the past thirty years (“La Yuma” in 2010, which I enjoyed). They do have a fairly significant premiere at San Sebastian, namely “Daughter or Rage” (La hija de todas las rabias) about an impoverished little girl growing up in a landfill.

16.  PANAMA- “Birthday Boy" (Cumpleañero) Panama was shortlisted for the first time last year for “Plaza Catedral” and I expect they’ll be hoping to make it two in a row with the upcoming “Birthday Boy” (Cumpleañero), about a 45-year old who gathered all of his friends together for a huge party…and then announces he plans to commit suicide that evening. Director Arturo Montenegro was selected in 2019. If it’s not released in time, perhaps they’ll send documentary “For Your Peace of Mind, Make Your Own Museum”, which won Best Central American Film at the Costa Rica International Film Festival or, less likely, local COVID comedy “Sancocho Presidencial”.

17.  PARAGUAY - “Eami” Paraguayan films rarely win major international film festivals so when mystical fable/docudrama “Eami” won in Rotterdam, it automatically became the front runner to represent Paraguay at the Oscars. Add that to the fact that there’s really no competition and that director Paz Encima was considered an Oscar contender for “Paraguay Hammock” before Paraguay had a recognized Oscar committee, and this is a lock. Trivia: although Paraguay is officially bilingual (Guarani and Spanish), this would be their second submission in a row in the dying Ayoreo language. 

18.  PERU- “La Pampa” The two Peruvian features in competition at the Lima Film Festival this month were “Tiempos Futuros”, a sci-fi drama and human trafficking drama “La Pampa”. Joining them in contention to rep Peru are “Huesera”, a twisty horror drama that won two awards in Tribeca, “Operation Condor”, a corruption drama set in the  1970s, and “Antonia en la vida”, about a 45-year old woman rediscovering life. I think “La Pampa” will get this, followed by “Huesera” and “Operation Condor” in third.

19.   PUERTO RICO- “Without Prescription” (Receta no incluida) Puerto Rico was unfairly and unceremoniously disinvited from the Oscar competition in 2011, despite submitting films for over two decades. Hopefully, AMPAS will reverse this silly decision in the near future. If Puerto Rico is invited again, they’d certainly send “Without Prescription”, a drama that won the Audience Award at South by Southwest, about a woman living her life with OCD.

20.  SURINAME- “Dear Mister Bouterse” Tiny Suriname sent a film once in 2020. I doubt they’ll enter this year. The only film I know of is 60-minute documentary “Dear Mister Bouterse”, about the country’s eccentric dictator who ruled the country after a coup from 1980-1987 and again as an elected leader 2010-2020. 

21.  URUGUAY- “Nine” I originally counted three contenders- sports drama “9”, upcoming Netflix thriller “Togo”, and trendy horror flick “Virus-32” (they picked a horror movie by the same director in 2011) with one question mark- “The Employer & the Employee” premiered at Cannes Director’s Fortnight in 2021 and submitted itself to represent Uruguay but lost the race to “Broken Glass Theory”. However, after losing that race, its release date was postponed until April 2022. However, on August 3^rd, the Uruguayan Academy (ICAU) announced that three films were being considered- “9”, “The Employer & the Employee” and “Bosco”, a documentary I’d never heard of. Zombies (sad!) and Netflix are out. So, what will they pick? “Employer & the Employee” is the highest-profile and “Bosco”, about the director tracing her roots back to a depopulated village in Tuscany with only 13 inhabitants, probably has the best reviews. But the Uruguayan Academy has already rejected “Employer” and has never selected a documentary before. So, although I hate sports movies, I think they’ll choose “9” which combines the Uruguayan love for football with the trendy topic of social media harassment and bullying.

22.  VENEZUELA- “Jezabel” Despite economic collapse, Venezuela makes some really wonderful films. This year, Venezuela has two main choices- (1)- “Me and the Beasts”, a weird dramedy about a guitarist trying to build a solo musical career amidst Venezuela’s economic crash, or (2)- “Jezabel”, a crime-thriller by Hernan Jabes (who probably came close to a nomination with “Rock, Paper, Scissors” in 2012) about three adults whose lives are still being affected by the murder of a friend sixteen years before. “Me and the Beasts” just beat “Jezebel” for Best Picture and Best Director at the Venezuelan Film Festival. But “Jezabel” won the important Best Picture award from the press, and the Venezuelan Academy tends to select grim, gritty films….and it’s what I think Venezuela will choose to go to the Oscars. Dark horse: the upcoming “Sons of the Revolution”, following two young lovers over 25 years of Venezuelan history. Unlikely but possible: “Three’s a Crowd, Four is a Disaster”, a Birdcage-style comedy based on a local play or “La Toma”, a low-budget Romeo & Juliet story that finished second behind “Me & the Beasts” at the national film awards.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

 EL SALVADOR is the only country in Latin America that's never sent a film to the Oscars. If they decide to make their debut this year, it will probably be "Polvo de gallo", a B&W allegorical tale about abortion (El Salvador has some of the most restrictive anti-abotion laws on earth, imprisoning women simply for having a miscarriage). Director Julio Lopez represented El Salvador in the Central American omnibus "Days of Light", which represented Honduras two years ago. They also have "Antes la Lluvia", about the difficulties of two women seeking to migrate to the United States and "Hoy", a drama about drivers (bus, taxi, etc.) that premiered in 2020 but was delayed due to COVID.