OSCARS 2023: Predictions for Western Europe

 And here's the final batch of 20 countries.....This is cheating a little because two countries (Germany, Ireland and Switzerland) have already announced and two more have announced their shortlists (Netherlands and Spain). 

 AUSTRIA- “Corsage” Austria will probably go with costume biopic “Corsage”, which won Best Actress for Vicky Krieps at Cannes (Un Certain Regard) for playing a distinguished 19^th century Empress. Reviews have been good and it looks like the film will be getting an Oscar-qualifying release in the U.S. to compete in the tech categories. Its main competition comes from “Rimini”, a dramedy about a man returning to his childhood home after the death of his mother. It competed at Berlinale and won Best Picture at the Diagonale Awards for Austrian cinema, over last year's critical darling “Great Freedom”. Both directors have just missed out on representing Austria in past years. Dark horses: WWII revenge drama “Schachten”, Italian-language drama “Vera” (due to premiere in Venice) and “Above the Ground”, about a wealthy young man who becomes a hermit.

 BELGIUM- "Close" Belgium essentially has two separate national film industries, based in the Dutch and French-speaking regions of the country. Films from the smaller French side (Wallonie) have been sent of the Oscars seven of the past ten years and the majority of this year's contenders come from there too. However, almost everyone believes that the Belgian entry will be queer adolescent drama "Close" which won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) at Cannes, from the Flemish side (Flanders). It's definitely the buzziest and most critically acclaimed Belgian film of the year and Lukas Dhont was selected four years ago. But all three Flemish directors selected in the past ten years are back with new films. Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen ("Broken Circle Breakdown") has the critically acclaimed Italian-language "Eight Mountains" (Cannes Jury Prize) while Robin Pront has discotheque drama "Zillion". From the French side, the Brothers Dardennes are back with "Tori and Lokita" (Cannes). They've been selected four times- more than any other Belgian director- but this refugee drama isn't as acclaimed as some of their other films. Other strong Walloon options include "Rebel", a drama about a Muslim family starring Lubna Azabal, "The Damned Don't Cry" (Venice Days) and boxing drama "Final Round". I think it will be "Close"....but "Eight Mountains", and possibly also "Rebel", are going to give it a run for the money. 

 DENMARK- “Forever” Denmark (pop: 6 million) is currently the most successful country in the world, in this category. In twelve years, they’ve been nominated seven times, winning twice. They’ve only failed to make the shortlist three times since then. So, despite their small size, they aim to win every year (and "Flee" would have been a better winner last year than the soporific "Drive My Car"). They’re scheduled to announce a 3-film shortlist on September 5. Although it’s a weak year and I don’t necessarily expect them to be nominated, they have plenty to choose from. I’m predicting the three shortlisted films will be “Forever”, a box-office hit about a family dealing with the unexpected loss of a family member, “Miss Viborg”, a comedy-drama about the intergenerational friendship between two dysfunctional women, and “Rose”, about a woman and her disabled sister on a road trip.  Niels Arden Oplev has been selected in 2008 for “World Apart”, so I was going to predict “Rose”, but “Forever” has gotten such strong notices at home and was selected for a major festival (San Sebastian) so I'm switching. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 19^th century period drama “As In Heaven” (Best Director, San Sebastian), Afghan documentary “Taliban Land”, WWII thriller/sequel “Out of the Darkness” or even music biopic “Bamse” (director Henrik Ruben Genz is Oscar Short Film nominee) on the shortlist. I’ve seen people mention “Holy Spider” (Swedish) and “Godland” (Icelandic), but they don’t meet the nationality requirements, while buzzy Sundance horror flick “Out of the Darkness” is mostly in English.

 FINLAND- “Girl Picture” After winning the Audience Award at Sundance, adolescent drama “Girl Picture” (Berlin, 14+) automatically went to the front of the list for Finland. “The Woodcutter Story” played at Cannes but reviews aren’t strong enough . I think “Girl” is pretty safe, but two previously selected Finnish directors have new films coming out later this year. Aleksi Salmenperä (2004, 2007) made the delightful quirky “Man’s Job” and now has “Bubble”, about a teenage girl who suspects her mother of being involved in a lesbian affair, while Aleksi Mäkelä (1999) has ice hockey drama “Laitapuolen hyökkääjä”. 

 FRANCE- TBD France is the only country in the world to have submitted every year since the creation of the category in 1956. As usual, they have dozens of films to choose from and I'll update this once France announces their shortlist on September 15. 

 GERMANY- “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” WRITTEN BEFORE GERMANY ANNOUNCED (So much for predicting a long shot). Germany announced a 9-film shortlist on August 16^th, containing mostly little-known films. Basic rom-com “Mostly Minimalistic” and “Nico”- a  spare, 79-minute "feel-good" drama about a Muslim nurse trying to becoming a karate champion- aren’t competitive, and early reviews for Til Schweiger’s grief drama “Lieber Kurt” haven’t been kind. Three more films on the list- feminist “Talking about the Weather”, quirky pandemic thriller “We Might as Well be Dead” (both from Berlin), and “No One’s With the Calves” (Locarno 2021), a drama about rural boredom, all appear to be too small to represent a country as important as Germany. So that leaves just three serious contenders- two more Berlin entries- WWII drama “The Forger” and black comedy “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” (winner, Best Actress and Screenplay)- and the hotly anticipated Netflix WWI movie, “All Quiet on the Western Front”, with Daniel Brühl. “Forger”, about a young German Jew living life to the fullest via a fake identity in 1940s Berlin, has positive but not outstanding reviews…but it’s exactly the sort of film that traditionally nets Germany nominations or at least spots on the shortlist (like "Two Lives" or the mediocre “Labyrinth of Lies”). “Rabiye Kurnaz”, about a mild-mannered immigrant housewife who fights to get her dim-witted son released from Guantanamo Bay, has a great U.S. hook (former President Bush likely has few fans in the Academy) and it won second prize at the German Film Awards (winner “Dear Thomas” was on Germany's shortlist last year but wasn’t picked). Right now, "Rabiye" is the frontrunner. But it all depends on the reaction to “All Quiet”, which will premiere in Toronto before moving to Netflix. Told from the perspective of a terrified German soldier, this is serious competition for the much lighter “Rabiye”…and Germany already sent a rare comedy last year. I know that this is probably going to be “All Quiet” but I’m keeping “Rabiye” as my prediction for now until people can actually tell me if that film is any good or not. 

 GREECE - “Magnetic Fields” Many people say that Greece always sends the winner of Best Picture at the Hellenic Film Awards (like Israel) but this isn't true. Although they did send “Digger” last year, that was the first time their selections matched in five years.  Still, it would be foolish to bet against this year’s winner- comedy-drama “Magnetic Fields”- which also won Best Greek Film at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (which used to go to the Oscars automatically). I’m personally hoping they pick “Dodo”, a screwball comedy by a previously selected director about a wealthy family in distress, and the only Greek film at Cannes 2022. Other options: crime drama “Pack of Sheep” and immigrant drama “Holy Emy” both lost Best Picture to “Magnetic Fields”, while the challenging “The City and the City”, about Greece’s lost Jewish community, played at a Berlinale sidebar; “Purgatory” tells seven stories about modern love; Holocaust documentary “The Students of Umberto Primo” looks at Greece under Nazi occupation.

 GREENLAND- “Into the Ice” Greenland, the smallest country in the competition (pop: 60,000) hasn’t sent a film since 2012. I don’t think they have anything eligible but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Into the Ice”, an intriguing Danish documentary (Variety said it made science “sexy”) about the melting ice caps in Greenland. 

 ICELAND- “Beautiful Beings” With two critically acclaimed films eligible, Iceland will have to make the difficult decision of Berlin versus Cannes. Brutal youth drama “Beautiful Beings” premiered at Berlin Panorama while period piece “Godland” premiered in Un Certain Regard at Cannes. The two films share some producers and crew in common who will be celebrating regardless of which film gets picked. I’m predicting “Beautiful Beings”, which has slightly strong reviews and also because director Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson was expected to represent Iceland in 2017 for “Heartstone” but was unexpectedly snubbed for the cute but forgettable comedy “Under the Tree”. The director of “Godland”, about a 19^th century Danish priest who slowly goes mad after being sent to a remote Icelandic village, has been picked once before for “A White White Day” (which I did not like). It’s a more challenging film and tiny Iceland will want to maximize its chances of making the shortlist two years in a row. “Beings” will have a better shot. Unlikely but possible: period drama “Reply to a Letter from Helga”, about a forbidden love affair, and raucous hit comedy sequel “The Very Last Fishing Trip”. 

 IRELAND- “The Quiet Girl” (WRITTEN BEFORE THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT) Few countries have an easier choice this year than Ireland. “The Quiet Girl” is primarily in Irish, it has gotten a cinematic release, it won two awards at a major film festival (in the K+ Section in Berlin), and has done extremely well with critics and audiences. To top it all off, it just won Best Picture at the Irish Film Awards, defeating the favorite, “Belfast”. Ireland doesn’t produce many films in Irish, so this film about a young girl thriving in a foster case home who discovers a secret, is a shoo-in. 

 ITALY- “Nostalgia”  Italy has more wins in this category than any other country, but they’ve only been nominated three times in the past 20 years (twice for Paolo Sorrentino, and once for “Don’t Tell”, probably the most forgettable nominee I’ve ever seen).  The Italian Academy prefers established directors. They’ve never selected a new director, and in the past twenty years, 17 of their Oscar submissions were made by directors who represented the country more than once (and one of the three others- Claudio Caligari- was selected mostly out of sympathy after he died unexpectedly). So the Italians definitely play favorites. In fact, they've only chose a really young, up-and-coming director  once in recent memory- Jonas Carpignano (“A Ciambra”). In the past 30 years, they’ve also only picked one woman (who was their second choice after their first choice was disqualified). So we’re looking for a new movie by an older, established, male director...and we have lots of movies that fit the profile. This year we have new movies by Gianni Amelio (selected 4 times w/1 Oscar nom; “Lord of the Ants”; Venice), Pupi Avati (selected once; “Dante”), Marco Bellocchio (selected three times; “Exterior Night”), Emanuele Crialese (selected twice; “L”Immensita; Venice), Mario Martone (“Nostalgia”, Cannes), Michele Placido (“Caravaggio’s Shadow”), Paolo Taviani (selected twice, “Leonora Addio”, Berlin), and Paolo Virzi (selected twice; "Siccita”). These eight will be the frontrunners alongside Belgian co-production “Eight Mountains” (Cannes). All eight Italian directors are men over 55 (three are over 80; Taviani is 90). 

Cannes Jury Prize winner “Eight Mountains” is probably the most critically acclaimed Italian film of the year but Italy has never selected a film by a foreign director (Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen has repped Belgium twice). “Leonora Addio” has the weakest notices, but the Taviani Brothers were an institution, and this is probably 90-year old Paolo’s last film. The other two films that have been seen by critics are “Nostalgia”, which is the sort of grim Neopolitan drama that the Italian Academy loves, and “Exterior Night”, which is a 5 ½ hour film that premiered at a Cannes sidebar which will be re-edited into a TV series. The other five will premiere later this year: two costume biopics, 14th century “Dante” and 16th century “Caravaggio’s Shadow”, LGBT drama “Lord of the Ants” and two new films headlined by big stars- family drama “L’Immensita” (with Penelope Cruz) and comedy “Siccita” (with Monica Bellucci). Mario Martone is felt to be overdue (he probably came in 2^nd place at least twice) so “Nostalgia” is my prediction, although I think that the starpower of Penelope Cruz could win out if “L’immensita” wins something big at Venice. These are my two top predictions, although I think “Eight Mountains” and the two glossy costume dramas, “Dante” and “Caravaggio’s Shadow” will be in Italy's Top 5. Other films that could be on Italy’s (usually very long) longlist- “The Adventures of Gigi the Law”, “Cattivo Sangue”, “Chiara” (Venice), “The Code of Silence” ,“Grand Bolero”, “Il pataffio”, “Princess”, “Small Body”, and documentary “Into My Name”.

 LUXEMBOURG- “The Way to Happiness” Most of Luxembourg’s films are co-productions but ever since they were disqualified over nationality issues in 2006, they’ve always made sure to send films by local Luxembourgian directors- with one controversial exception. In 2019, they sent Israeli film “Tel Aviv on Fire” (which I loved!) and- surprisingly- it was accepted. But they prefer local Luxembourgian directors, which is why I’m predicting “The Way to Happiness” a French-language dramedy by Nicolas Steil that’s been compared (mostly unfavorably) to “Life is Beautiful”. It’s about a Holocaust survivor forced to confront his past when a foreign director decides to make a movie about his life. Reviews have been mixed but I suspect American audiences will be more forgiving than European ones. There’s also Italian-language “Lost Flowers”, a personal documentary about the COVID pandemic and German-language coming-of-age dramedy “Raspberries with Mustard”. Their directors aren’t local but supposedly they’re majority LUX productions. If Luxembourg wants to pull a “Tel Aviv on Fire” and claim a film rejected by its host country, they could consider “A Fleeting Encounter” (Switzerland) or “Where is Anne Frank?” (Israel) which have Luxembourgian producers, or perhaps “Corsage”, which I assume will be claimed by Austria. 

 MALTA- “Uwijja” Tiny Malta deserved to make the Oscar shortlist last year for “Luzzu”…but they didn’t because the Oscar committee apparently has no taste. The only Maltese-language feature I know of this year is “Uwijja”, about a man who goes missing, setting into play a tragic series of events. Rebecca Cremona, who directed their first-ever submission, has a new WWII epic in production and will probably rep the island next year. 

 NETHERLANDS- “Sea of Time” In August, the Netherlands announced it would be considering eleven, mostly very obscure films. I’ll probably get in trouble for saying this but it saddens me that there aren’t many authentically “Dutch” films on the list- one is in Italian, one in Russian, one in Persian, one in Arabic, with one about Senegalese asylum seekers….That leaves only half the list actually about Dutch subjects. But that’s their prerogative…And, in fact, the two frontrunners- “Sea of Time” and “Pink Moon”- actually are authentically Dutch stories. “Sea of Time” was selected to open the Nederlands Film Festival later this year and is a grand film in the style of their submissions in the 90s and 00s (back when the Netherlands used to get nominated!! That hasn’t happened in twenty years….). It focuses on a loving couple who lose their child on a boating trip in the 70s, and then meet up again forty years later. “Pink Moon”, which got strong reviews in Tribeca, sounds more like my cup of tea- it’s a darkly comic drama about an elderly man who informs his daughter that he wishes to peacefully end his own life. But it’s a wide-open race. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Netherlands went with the sentimental choice- “Along the Way”- a drama about Afghan refugees starring two real-life twin sisters (director Mijke de Jong has been selected twice before) or “El Houb”, an LGBT film about a gay Moroccan-Dutch man coming out to his conservative family (including Lubna Azabal, who also co-stars as the wife in Morocco’s similarly themed “Blue Caftan”). I think it will be one of these four. Unlikely but possible: moral dilemma drama “The Photo Camera”, unreleased family drama “Narcosis” and Soviet POW documentary “Turn Your Body to the Sun”. Out of luck: “Shabu” (Berlin 14+), an upbeat documentary about a Surinamese-Dutch teen, Italian-language crime drama “Last Ride of the Wolves” and two “kids in peril” family films, “Bigman” and “Totem”. 

 NORWAY- “Narvik” Norway had a banner year last year, getting an Oscar nomination for “Worst Person in the World” (which I was hoping would win over the tedious and overrated mess of “Drive My Car”) after missing much deserved nominations for “Hope” and “What Will People Say”. The critically acclaimed “The Innocents” and “Nothing To Laugh About” didn’t even make the Norwegian shortlist last year, which shows what a strong year it was for Norwegian cinema. This year is a bit thinner, and I don’t see many films with a chance to make their traditional three-film shortlist. Favorite “Narvik”, about Norway fighting the Nazis, will certainly be on the list. I expect it will be joined by comedy “Sick of Myself” (Cannes UCR) and either small-town drama “A Human Position” or “Krigsseileren”, another WWII drama. Other options: Roar Uthaug is Norway’s “big-budget” director and his new monster movie “Troll” could make the shortlist, even though it won’t actually be selected; upcoming biopic “Munch” is about one of Norway’s most celebrated artists (I hate biopics); and documentary “Name of the Game” (Trond Giske) is about political corruption. 

 PORTUGAL- "Tommy Guns"- Last year, Portugal picked a movie where the director read random letters to the audience, while the camera focused off to the side, as if it was bored. The year before, they picked a plotless movie featuring a woman mumbling in the dark for over two hours. The year before that was somewhat less embarrassing; they picked a three-hour Portuguese soap opera channeling Falcon Crest. Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions (38) without ever being nominated (or shortlisted). I’m not certain they’ve ever even come close….I’ve seen nine of these 38 films; most were terrible and even the best one (“Blood of My Blood”) was a 7.5/10. Sorry Portugal. Having said that, 2022 has been a strong year for Portugal and five previously submitted directors have new films. Most people are predicting “Will-o-the-Wisp”, a weird 67-minute gay musical comedy set in the year 2069; it played at Cannes and I actually want to see it. “Remains of the Wind” (by the director of their 2019 soap opera) is supposed to be good too; it’s about a reunion of friends after 25 years. Angolan war drama “Tommy Guns” (Locarno) is probably the most acclaimed Portuguese film of the year. Angola doesn’t have a committee, but the director is Portuguese-Angolan and the film is set amidst Angola’s war for independence against Portugal. Wouldn’t it be funny if Portugal got their first nomination for a film made in another country? For the last few years, Portugal has announced a shortlist of 4-6 films before their announcement. I predict the other films on the list will be family drama “Mal Viver”, “Nothing Ever Happened”, about teens from dysfunctional families and “Alma Viva” (Cannes Critics Week), about a girl from a small village dealing with her grandmother’s death. But “Amadeo”, “The Child”, “Great Yarmouth” (too much English?) and “Revolta” could be on the list too. Not eligible: I think royal historical drama “Pedro” will count for Brazil.  Prediction: Unless they hear that Angola is forming a committee (which they should!), Portugal will grab “Tommy Guns”. 

 SPAIN- "Lullaby" (Cinco Lobitos) Spain announced their usual three-film shortlist on August 25. There were no big surprises; the list included critically-acclaimed dramas "Alcarràs" (Winner, Berlinale 2022), "The Beasts" (San Sebastian) and "Lullaby" (Berlin Panorama). All-star comedy and box-office hit "Official Competition" probably came in 4th place and will now have to hope it gets picked by Argentina. Spain has a tough choice. All three finalists are well regarded by both critics and audiences, and I'd argue that all of them could potentially make the final 15 at the Oscars. Two of the directors have been in the race for an Oscar before. In 2017, Carla Simon became the third woman and the second director working in the Catalan language to represent Spain, with "Summer 1993". In 2019, Rodrigo Sorogoyen got an Oscar nomination in the Live-Action Short category for the brilliant thriller "Mother".  Alauda Ruiz de Azúa is making her feature debut (which could hurt her since Spain usually selects established directors). Interestingly, the three directors and three films represent Spain's four main ethnic regions- "Alcarràs" is from Catalonia, "Lullaby" is from the Basque Country, and "The Beasts" was made in Galicia by a Castilian Spanish director. "Alcarràs", about a family of farmers in turmoil when their new landowner sells the property they've worked for generations, is the favorite by virtue of its Berlin win.  But although Berlin Golden Bear winners are almost always selected for the Oscars when eligible (nine times since 2000), they're not usually nominated (just 3 times out of nine).  According to websites like IMDB, Letterboxd and Rotten Tomatoes, it's mother-daughter drama "Lullaby" that has the strongest reviews. For the record, it's thriller "The Beasts" that looks like the best film, and the one I'm hoping for....but I'm pretty sure it will come third. All three films would make a strong contender for Spain but my prediction is that it's between the two women. "Alcarràs" has the box-office and the Berlin Prize. "Lullaby" has the support of Pedro Almodovar (who, despite complaining about the Spanish Academy, has been picked seven times) and the critics. The Spanish Academy votes with their hearts and often dumps the frontrunner- ask the cast and crew of "Talk to Her", "Everybody Knows" etc.....So I predict a surprise win for "Lullaby". Maybe that's because I'm still angry at Carla Simon for making me waste 95 minutes of my time watching kids play in their backyard in "Summer 1993", the worst Spanish submission I've seen yet....

 SWEDEN- "Holy Spider" Sweden usually announces a three-film shortlist before their final announcement and two of those spots are pretty much locked- Ali Abbasi's "Holy Spider" and Tarik Saleh's "Boy From Heaven". Both competed in the main competition at Cannes 2022 and won major awards, although they lost the Palme d'Or to fellow Swedish film "Triangle of Sadness" (which is in English). "Spider" is in Persian and "Heaven" is in Arabic, so I imagine Sweden would like to have one film in Swedish to round out the shortlist, and that will probably be "Burn My Letters', starring Bill Skarsgård, or "Comedy Queen", which won a Crystal Bear at Berlin in the 14+ category. It could also be Lena Olin's new film "Andra akten", LGBT documentary "Nelly & Nadine" or drama "Maya Nilo". But this is probably a race between the two Middle Eastern films (Sweden has selected films in Georgian and Russian to represent them before). "Holy Spider" won Best Actress for exiled Iranian actress Zar Amir-Ebrahimi (now based in France) while "Boy From Heaven" won Best Screenplay so it's a tight race. Serial killer thriller "Holy Spider", set in Iran, has the buzz and slightly warmer reviews so that's my prediction. 

 SWITZERLAND- “La ligne” “Piece of Sky” I was researching the nine films on Switzerland’s shortlist when they suddenly announced their submission would be the German-language “A Piece of Sky”, a tragic romance narrated by a choir (?!) that got mostly good reviews in Berlin. I’m going to mark this as “incorrect” for my predictions because I was going to predict “La ligne”, the other Swiss film in the Main Competition in Berlin, mainly because director Ursula Meier made the Oscar shortlist for “Sister”. The Swiss shortlist included five films from the German region (Winner “Piece of Sky”, plus “The Black Spider”, “Semret”, “Soul of a Beast” and “Unrest”), three films from the French region (my prediction “La ligne”, plus “Continental Drift” and “A Fleeting Encounter”) and one film from Spain (“La agua”) that seems to have no connection to Switzerland whatsoever. In terms of what films actually look interesting, I would have preferred they pick medieval horror-drama “Black Spider” (which sounds like “Sennentunschi”, one of my favorite Swiss films) or “A Fleeting Encounter”, a culture-clash drama with an international cast. 

 UNITED KINGDOM- “Winners” The UK obviously produces most of their movies in English but globalization (and the 2006 rule change allowing films in non-official languages of the host country) has meant that British directors have qualified to send films fairly regularly since 2008 (they’ve skipped three times). Before 2006, they mostly sent films in Welsh. Since then, only a quarter of entries have been Welsh films, with the rest in a motley crew of African, Asian and Middle Eastern languages, including two documentaries. If they want to go “native”, the frontrunners are two horror-dramas “The Feast” (in Welsh) and “Enys Men” (in Cornish). If they want to go with an international language, it could be “Winners” (in Persian), “The Anglistanis” (in Hindi), Afghan documentary “My Childhood, My Country” (in Persian) or “The Swimmers” (in Arabic). I was ready to predict “My Childhood, My Country”, a documentary twenty years in the making following the boy (now an adult man) from “Boy Mir”…but I think it aired on UK television first. And I fear inspiring Olympic refugee drama “The Swimmers” will have too much English to qualify. So, I think it’s between psychological horror-thriller “Enys Men” (the second feature film ever made in the dying Cornish language) and “Winners” (by an Afghan director who once represented Afghanistan), a Majidi-esque drama about two children trying to find the owner of a missing object. “Enys” has more buzz, “Winners” better reviews. I predict “Winners" will be the final submission. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS is the only EU country that doesn't participate in the Oscars, although they do make a number of respectable films each year, and they did join the European Film Promotion organization in 2016. If they finally join this year, it's likely to be ".dog", about a young man getting to know his father who has just been released from prison. It was nominated for three Greek Academy Awards, winning one.