And here are my predictions for the films from the Asia-Pacific…. 20 countries announced films for the Oscars (the same number as last year) but AMPAS disqualified three on technicalities so we only have 17.
Let’s be honest. Three of these films have a chance at the
shortlist. Fourteen really do not. There’s really no middle ground…..So take
that into account when looking at the rankings.
Number of Countries Participating this year: 20
Number of Countries That Have Participated in the
Past: 28
Who’s Missing?: Afghanistan, Cambodia,
Fiji, Kazakhstan, Laos, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan
Only KAZAKHSTAN was a real surprise. This is only
the second time they’ve failed to send a film since they begin competing in
2006. Kazakhstan apparently made a call for submissions and held a vote between
two finalist films- “Ademoka’s Education” (Warsaw), a critically acclaimed
comedy by Adilkhan Yerzhanov, one of Kazakhstan’s most famous international
directors, and “Bauryna Salu” (San Sebastian), which just got a Best Youth Film
nomination at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. Kazakhstan’s committee
inexplicably voted 4-3 not to send either film. To add insult to injury, a
number of Kazakh filmmakers said they were unaware of the competition,
including the director of “Happiness” (Cannes), which I expected they would
send. I just don’t understand it……
As for the others….Fiji and Laos have only
ever submitted once in Oscar history, Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film in
over a decade, and Afghanistan‘s political situation would make
participation difficult. Cambodia and New Zealand usually do send
films, but it was a terrible film year for Cambodia and I’m not sure New
Zealand had any eligible contenders in a foreign language. Cambodia has already
confirmed that they hope to participate again next year.
FRONTRUNNERS:
These three films are strong contenders for the
shortlist. Let’s take a look:
1.
JAPAN-
“Perfect Days” (Letterboxd: 4.1)
In A Nutshell:
A minimalist drama about a Japanese man in his 60s who
works as a toilet cleaner, and who is content with his life and his music.
Pros: Two
major prizes at Cannes (Best Actor and the Ecumenical Jury Prize) by a
three-time Oscar nominated director, mostly excellent reviews and a story
likely to resonate with older Oscar voters. Oscar likes Japan when it sends
these kinds of introspective traditional dramas.
Cons: Not much….This
is one of the strongest candidates for the shortlist.
2.
AUSTRALIA- “Shayda”
(3.7)
In A Nutshell: An abused Iranian mother and asylum seeker
celebrates the Iranian New Year with her 6-year old daughter in an Australian women’s
shelter.
Pros: Good reviews from Sundance including an Audience Award
that shows it resonates with U.S. audiences. Deals with universal issues like
domestic violence and immigration. Lots of English will make this an easy watch
for viewers watching hours and hours of subtitles. Low-key Oscar campaign for
lead actress Zar Amir Ebrahimi (“Holy Spider”) may make Oscar voters watch
their screeners.
Cons: This committee rarely goes for stories about women. This is a fairly small film.
3.
BHUTAN- “The
Monk and the Gun” (3.6)
In A Nutshell: A political satire set in 2006 when Bhutan’s
King introduced democracy to a reluctant public as well as other modernization reforms.
Pros: Director Pawo Choyning Dorji. Dorji got a miracle
nomination for the low-budget “Lunana” and many say this film is equally
charming and exotic, but with additional layers of political introspection.
Cons: While reviews are very good, all of them compare
the film to “Lunana”. While most compare it favorably, some express
disappointment that they didn’t like it as much.
DARK HORSES:
4.
SOUTH
KOREA- “Concrete Utopia” (3.5)
5.
PHILIPPINES- “The Missing” (3.7)
6. MONGOLIA-
“City of Wind” (3.4)
7. NEPAL-
“Halkara” (3.2)
I don’t think any of these four films will
make the shortlist….but one of them could technically surprise. NEPAL was
one of the biggest surprises of the year for me. The Nepali submissions tend to
be low-budget, modest efforts…..”Halkara” (The Postman), about a young alcoholic
who reluctantly takes a job as a rural postman, is gorgeous with admirably high
production values. Though it starts off slow and you’re quite sure where it’s
going, the plotlines eventually come together and build to a really beautifully
done finale. However, I don’t think enough Oscar voters will watch the film…and
some may not wait for the film to build. Props to the producers for making the
film available worldwide on Vimeo.
I wish more of the smaller countries did this. I was also really impressed by MONGOLIA and
“City of Wind”, which won Best Actor in Venice for its newcomer teenage
protagonist Tergel Bold-Erdene. “City of Wind” is about Ze, an ordinary Mongolian
high-school student who is also his community’s traditional shaman. It’s a
really wonderful coming-of-age film about the conflict between Ze’s spiritual and
family responsibilities and his desire to date and drink like any other kid. It’s
a wonderful universal portrayal of first love, but in an exotic Mongolian setting….it
will probably come close to the shortlist but fall short.
The PHILIPPINES has selected an
unusual animated LGBT film called “The Missing” that was the surprised winner
of the Philippines’ Metro Manila Film Festival for independent cinema. The film
has gotten really wonderful reviews but an anime film will always struggle
against the more traditionally “Oscar bait” films…..With the new Oscar rules,
getting your film seen by the most voters is important….and KOREA’s “Concrete
Utopia” has the power to do that. This is a disaster drama about a freak
earthquake that destroys most of Seoul, resulting in a brutal fight for
survival by the survivors. Oscar doesn’t usually go for action but the film has
very good reviews (including 100% on Rotten Tomatoes)….although I’m skeptical
it will make the shortlist because a few people seem to really dislike it.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK
8.
INDONESIA- “Autobiography” (3.5)
9.
INDIA- “2018” (3.6)
10. KYRGYZSTAN-
“This Is What I Remember” (3.6)
11. SINGAPORE- “The Breaking Ice” (3.4)
Not much to say about these four "middle" films....They'll do well but don't have any chance of making the finals. I only managed to see "This Is What I Remember" from KYRGYZSTAN. It's a wonderful little village drama (Kyrgyzstan sends excellent ones year after year) about an old man with amnesia, but it was disqualified on a technicality about its release date.
From Southeast Asia, INDONESIA sent "Autobiography", about a young man hired to assist a corrupt politician, and SINGAPORE sent "The Breaking Ice", about the relationships between three young people living on the Chinese side of the China-North Korea border. INDIA sent "2018", a Malayalam film recreating a series of devastating floods that hit Kerala five years ago.
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:
12.
BANGLADESH- “No Ground Beneath the Feet” (2.9)
13.
PAKISTAN- “In Flames” (3.3)
14. THAILAND-
“Not Friends” (3.5)
15. VIETNAM-
“Glorious Ashes” (3.6)
These
four films have mostly good reviews but they’re not what Oscar usually goes for
and they haven’t won any awards…They’re not going to make a dent in such a big
group of films.
THAILAND’s “(Not) Friends” is a commercial comedy-drama about a group of
high-school acquaintances who join together to make a short film about a
classmate who has just died. I used to live in Thailand and I can see this
being a huge hit with teen audiences there, who love the twisty mix of soap
opera, teen comedy and fantasy….but that’s less likely to appeal to older Oscar
voters. It’s an entertaining movie with some fun meta humor in the first half….but
it was probably selected to publicize the film’s release. VIETNAM’s “Glorious
Ashes” is a slow, confusing rural drama focusing on three women in a small
Vietnamese village. There are some good ideas here but they don’t make a
coherent whole and the ending doesn’t come together.
I
haven’t seen the two films from South Asia but I very much want to. “No Ground
Beneath the Feet” is a drama about a man and his two wives in a flood-prone
area of BANGLADESH. Despite its low Letterboxd score, I’ve heard very
good things about it and it will probably make a good impression on the few
people who bother to watch it. PAKISTAN is fresh off it’s probable 6th
or 7th place finish last year for “Joyland”, with another very original
film. “In Flames” is an atmospheric horror film and Canadian co-production
about a mother and daughter confronted by visions of the dead. Just not what Oscar
likes…
BOTTOM TIER
16. HONG
KONG- “A Light Never Goes Out” (3.2)
17.
MALAYSIA- “Tiger Stripes” (3.2)
18. TAJIKISTAN-
“Melody” (2.3)
19. CHINA-
“Wandering Earth 2” (3.2)
20. TAIWAN-
“Marry My Dead Body” (3.3)
This is a bad year for the three Chinese submissions, with all of them comfortably occupying the bottom tier. From CHINA, sci-fi prequel “Wandering Earth 2” clearly cost a lot of money. And the Set Design is impressive. But the film is God awful. Painfully overlong and with a script that sounds like it was improvised by small boys playing make-believe, this film about a global project to move the Earth out of its orbit due to a dying Sun, usually makes no sense. TAIWAN sent a purely commercial comedy with a Netflix deal– “Marry My Dead Body”. I was excited to see this genre-bending LGBT-fantasy-mystery-comedy about a macho young cop who becomes linked to a gay ghost murdered in a hit-and-run a few weeks before. Lots of good ideas are wasted here and while the film is sometimes entertaining and improves as it goes along, it’s overlong and silly with mostly unlikable characters (especially the ghost). And even before HONG KONG was disqualified, the schmaltzy overly sentimental “A Light Never Goes Out” never had a chance. Although the film’s cinematography is gorgeous, and the film is clearly a labor of love to Hong Kong’s unsung neon lights craftsmen, the film is dull and on a different emotional level than will appeal to Western audiences.
TAJIKISTAN was also disqualified, allegedly because of problems with the selection committee….although the film was a majority Iranian production so that may have been an issue as well. “Melody” is a pleasant little film about a young woman who goes on a quest to record bird sounds to organize a concert for the sick children she works with. The film makes Tajikistan look absolutely beautiful but the script is very weak and the film is more ethnographically than dramatically interesting. But I enjoyed it and was sorry to see it eliminated. MALAYSIA sent a great choice- Cannes horror film “Tiger Stripes”- but this weird adolescent body-horror film about a Muslim teen girl going through horrifying changes is exactly what Oscar is unlikely to like. But I’m thrilled they sent it.
Genres: Lots of
genre films this year….We have one sci-fi movie (China), one animated film
(Philippines), two “action” disaster flicks (Korea and India), one thriller (Indonesia),
and two bona fide horror films (Malaysia and Pakistan). We also have one comedy
(Taiwan) and two comedy-dramas (Bhutan and Thailand), leaving just ten straight
dramas (three of which were disqualified).
I’ve Already Seen: 9- China, Hong Kong, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Film I’m Most Excited To See: It’s a
tie between “The Monk and the Gun” (Bhutan) and “In Flames” (Pakistan).
Number I Predicted Correctly: Just
five….Australia, Bhutan, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan.
Big Four Festivals:
The Asians don’t pay as much attention to the major global
festivals, often preferring to send commercial films.
·
Berlin-
None
·
Cannes-
Japan (Best Actor),
Malaysia (Cannes Critics Week, Best Film), Pakistan (Director’s Fortnight), Singapore
(Un Certain Regard)
·
Sundance-
Australia (Jury Prize)
·
Venice-
Indonesia, Mongolia (Best
Actor)
Women Directors- 4 films had female directors: Amanda Nell Eu (Malaysia), Noora Niasari (Australia), Lkhagvadulam Purev-Ochir (Mongolia), and Anastasia Tsang (Hong Kong)
Oldest
and Youngest Directors- The oldest is almost
certainly German director Wim Wenders, 78, who is representing Japan. The youngest are probably Atta Hemwadee
(Thailand) and Zarrar Khan (Pakistan), both of whom are 32.
Languages Represented- There are three entries in
Mandarin (China, Singapore and Taiwan), two entries in Persian (Australia and
Tajikistan), two in the Malay-Indonesian languages (Indonesia, Malaysia)…..plus
one each in Bengali, Cantonese, Dzongkha, Japanese, Korean, Kyrgyz, Malayalam, Mongolian,
Nepali, Thai, Urdu and Vietnamese. The Philippines entry is apparently in a mix
of Filipino and Ilocano.
How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Three.
Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- The
Philippines ….but that’s not going to happen.
Buzziest Films: “The Missing” (Philippines)
and “Shayda” (Australia) (tie)
Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 6, 2023): Best: Japan
(4.1) Worst: Tajikistan (2.3)
Dumbest Decision: China, as usual. It’s
clear that “Wandering Earth 2” cost a lot of money…but it’s a terrible
movie….and China makes some wonderful, wonderful films (including
government-approved ones) that could have been sent instead.
Controversies and Changes: The two
representatives from Central Asia- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan- appear to
have been disqualified. Kyrgyzstan’s beautiful “This Is What I Remember” was
disqualified after AMPAS cited problems
with its domestic release date. Last year’s eligibility
period was January 1st to November 30th 2022, and this year’s eligibility period was
December 1st 2022 to October 31st 2023 (The eleven-month eligibility
periods are a vestige of the pandemic, and will eventually go back to
one-year). “Remember” was released on
November 18th 2022 but the deadline that year was an unusually early
October 3rd and the Kyrgyz argued that their film had no release
date planned when the film was selected in September. While AMPAS has made
exceptions in the past (including for the Oscar-nominated “Lunana”), it seems
their pandemic-era flexibility is gone. Kyrgyzstan declined to send another
film. When I heard that at least one film was disqualified, I assumed it was
likely to be “Melody” from Tajikistan because the film is clearly a majority
Iranian production. But according to ScreenDaily, it was actually disqualified on
a technicality because the country- which hadn’t sent a film in 18 years- didn’t
have its selection committee approved by AMPAS. The same thing has happened in
the past (including “Love Child” from the Dominican Republic and- yet again-
“Lunana” from Bhutan) but it seems “Melody” is out.
Hong Kong’s “A Light Never Goes Out” was
disqualified reportedly because an unnamed actor from the film was on Hong
Kong’s Oscar selection committee. AMPAS said this constituted a “conflict of
interest” and asked them to send a different film, but Hong Kong declined.
My opinion on this? Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan did
violate the rules, but since exceptions have been in the past, I would hope
AMPAS would show some flexibility to countries from developing nations.”This is
What I Remember” is one of my favorites of the 35 films I’ve seen and it truly deserves
to be considered.
The only other controversy came from Malaysia when director Amanda Nell Eu publicly
disassociated herself with the version of her film released in Malaysian
cinemas, saying that national censors forced cuts that she did not approve.
Usually we have a controversy from India, as rival
Indian filmmakers inevitably condemn, insult and spit on the film selected by
the Film Federation of India. Happily, that didn’t seem to happen this year….
Oscar History: Wim Wenders is the
big name here. Representing Japan, the German director has been nominated for
three Oscars in the Best Documentary Feature category and has
represented Germany in the Foreign/International Film category three times (he
was shortlisted for “Pina”). “Anselm” was also submitted for consideration to
represent Germany….If it he had been chosen, it would have been only the second
time a director was selected twice in the same year by two different countries.
(Krzysztof Kieslowski was the first, although AMPAS disqualified “Red”).
The other Oscar nominee competing this year is Pawo
Choyning Dorji (Bhutan), who was nominated in this category for “Lunana”.
Two other directors- Anthony Chen (Singapore) and Aktan
Arym Kubat (Kyrgyzstan) have been here multiple times. Chen repped
Singapore in 2013 and 2020, while Arym Kubat, Kyrgyzstan’s most well-known
director, repped his country four times, in 1998, 2001, 2010, and 2017. His
son Mirlan was selected twice.
Most Notable Omissions: Japan had the hardest
decision of any country, when they were forced to choose between Oscar nominee
Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Monster” and the final film (maybe?) by national treasure
and Oscar winner Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron”. So, they chose
neither.
China snubbed movies by two of their most
successful international directors (both nominees in this category)- Zhang
Yimou’s “Full River Red” and Chen Kaige’s (admittedly inappropriately
nationalistic) pro-North Korea drama “The Great War”, as well as “Love Never
Ends” and “Only the River Flows”.
Also out: “Cobweb” (Korea; starring Song Kang-ho), “The
Signal” (Laos; they didn’t enter), “Imaginur” (Malaysia), “Inside the Cocoon Shell”
(Vietnam) and possibly “If Only I Could Hibernate” (Mongolia) depending
on its release date.
Most Famous Face: Definitely Andy Lau, who co-stars in China’s “Wandering Earth 2”……But we also have Dolly DeLeon (Philippines), Lee Byung-hun (Korea), Koji Yakusho (Japan) and Simon Yam (Hong Kong)….Although you don’t actually see Dolly DeLeon’s face!
Last Year’s Race: I saw 12 of the 20
Asia-Pacific films last year. I agree with AMPAS that the two shortlisted films
from Asia- “Return to Seoul” (Cambodia) and “Joyland” (Pakistan)- were absolutely
the best and both deserved Oscar nominations (I give both an ‘A’).
I also saw Indonesia, Mongolia (A-), Australia, Japan, New
Zealand, Taiwan (B+), China, India, Korea (B), Thailand (B-), Nepal and Vietnam
(C+). I failed to see the films from Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Philippines and Singapore (damn Amazon VPN Blocker!)
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