And with the list due to be released tomorrow, here is a quick rundown of the films from Western Europe. These films will probably make up a majority of the shortlist tomorrow (and many of them deserve it).
Unfortunately, due to travelling most of the month of
November, I haven’t gotten to two of my Western European screeners….I still
need to watch Iceland and Luxembourg before the end of the year…
I'll try to add commentary before the list comes out, but I won't change my rankings.
Number of Countries Participating this year: 18
Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 20
Who’s Missing?: Only Greenland and Malta, which have tiny film industries,
did form selection committees this year…..but its possibly they simply had no
films that met all the requirements. Many of Malta’s small film output is in
English.
VIRTUAL LOCKS:
1. 
SPAIN-
“Society of the Snow” (Letterboxd: 3.9)
2. 
UNITED
KINGDOM- “The Zone of Interest” (4.1)
3. 
FINLAND-
“Fallen Leaves” (3.8)
According to most sources, Spain and the UK are the frontrunners to win the Oscar. Like many recent winners, they are also considered a threat for other categories, including Best Picture and Best Actress (UK), as well as Best Make-Up (Spain) and Best Score (both), which helps them to be seen. "The Zone of Interest", a German-language film by a British director, has been a favorite since it won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) in Cannes. It's about the family life of the commander of the Auschwitz concentration camp and has some of the best reviews of the 88 contenders. "Society of the Snow", beat a lot of internal competition to represent SPAIN and with its Netflix deal and familiar story, is my current prediction to win. It's about the 1972 plane crash in the Andes that many know from the Ethan Hawke film "Alive". Director JA Bayona is well-known in Hollywood. It's impossible for either film to fail to make the shortlist stage.
In a strong third place is "Fallen Leaves" from FINLAND. While this light romantic comedy-drama is less certain, I think the fact that it netted both a Best Foreign Film and Best Actress nomination at the Golden Globes mean that it's a safe bet for the shortlist, though not for a nomination. Kaurismaki got Finland's only Oscar nomination twnety years ago, and "Fallen Leaves" is supposed to be a better film.
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST:
4. 
GERMANY-
“The Teachers’ Lounge” (3.8)
5. 
FRANCE-
“The Taste of Things” (3.9)
6. 
DENMARK-
“Promised Land” (3.8)
7. 
ITALY-
“Io Capitano” (3.7)
ON THE BUBBLE
8. 
ICELAND-
“Godland” (3.8)
9. 
SWEDEN-
“Opponent” (3.4)
10. 
IRELAND-
“In the Shadow of Beirut” (3.9)
11. 
NETHERLANDS-
“Sweet Dreams” (3.5)
I've seen three of the four films in this group...and I loved all three. I really hope that at least one of these dark horses makes the shortlist. SWEDEN has selected an intriguing drama set in a detention center for asylum seekers. The less you know about the plot the better, but it's awesome seeing what Iranian actor Payman Maadi expand his acting range in a country with far less censorship. I really loved this film twisty film that seems predictable but isn't....and it beat out some fierce competition in Sweden...though critics seem to love it a lot less than I do. Go watch it!
IRELAND has sent in the best documentary of the year- "In the Shadow of Beirut"- featuring four families living in a poor slum of Beirut. Yes, while I acknowledge the historical and political importance of "20 Days in Mariupol" and the quality of the Ukrainian film, this is definitely the best documentary on the list. "Beirut" skillfully tells multiple stories of fascinating people with difficult lives, while at the same time making you think about poverty, politics and the importance of enjoying and appreciating the little things in life. It will be in my Top 5....and if Oscar voters watch it (and they probably won't), it will definitely be on the shortlist tomorrow.
THE NETHERLANDS used to be a superpower in this category but they haven't been nominated in twenty years. "Sweet Dreams" is a fascinating historical drama about a family and their servants in Dutch colonial Indonesia. 80s star Renee Soutendijk gives a great comeback performance and the film tells a bitter, humorous and ultimately tragic soap opera about what happens when a wealthy plantation owner leaves everything to the illegitimate son he fathered with the housemaid.
As for ICELAND, "Godland" was one of the best-reviewed foreign films of the year....but that year was 2022. It wasn't released in Iceland until 2023 so it's competing in this category this year. This film about a Danish priest virtually driven mad when he is assigned to a small community in 19th century Iceland is on the bubble for a spot on the shortlist. I wonder if it would have done better last year when it had buzz on the film festival circuit.
MIDDLE OF THE RANKINGS
12. 
BELGIUM-
“Omen” (3.4)
13. 
SWITZERLAND-
“Thunder” (3.4)
14. 
PORTUGAL-
“Bad Living” (3.3)
15. 
LUXEMBOURG-
“The Last Ashes” (3.2)
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:
16. 
GREECE- “Behind the Haystacks” (3.4)
17. 
AUSTRIA- “Vera” (3.4)
18. 
NORWAY-
“Songs of Earth” (3.5)
All three of these films have good reviews but don't have any chance at making the finals. "Songs of Earth" is probably a good nature documentary but selecting it for the International Feature category was a big mistake by NORWAY. "Vera", a peculiar docu-drama representing AUSTRIA, is about an Italian socialite who gets into a car accident is also too unconventional to get votes. From GREECE, we have a drama about a poor family (father, mother and adult daughter) living on the Greece-Macedonia border in a transit area for migrants from Africa and the Middle East. Telling the same story from all three perspectives, this is an interesting little film that gets better as it goes along but isn't strong enough to contend for the next round.
Genres: We have two
documentaries (Ireland and Norway) plus the odd docu-reality-drama from Austria
(I still don’t quite understand what this movie is), and one sort-of comedy from
Finland. The rest are dramas.
I’ve Already Seen: 5- Underdogs Greece,
Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. The middle three are fantastic films, and
I hope that at least one can make it to the next round. I will see Iceland, Luxembourg and Spain by the first week of January.
Film I’m Most Excited To See: Germany’s
“Teachers’ Lounge”
Number I Predicted Correctly: 8/18….Denmark,
Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Spain and the UK. A lot of
countries had really competitive races.
Big Four Festivals:
·
Berlin-
Germany, Portugal (Silver Bear, Jury Prize), Sweden
·
Cannes-
Belgium (UCR, New Voice Prize), Finland (Jury Prize), France (Best Director),
Iceland, UK (Grand Prix)
·
Sundance-
None
·
Venice-
Austria (Best Director and Actress, Venice Horizons 2022), Denmark, Italy (Silver Lion),
Spain (Closing Film)
Women Directors- Only 5 films had female directors or co-directors: Tizza Covi (Austria), Carmen Jaquier (Switzerland), Margreth Olin (Norway) Asimina Proedrou (Greece) and Ena Sendijarević (Netherlands). Austria has had films directed or co-directed by women seven of the past nine years, which has to be some kind of record!
Oldest
and Youngest Directors- Aki Kaurismäki (Finland) and
João Canijo (Portugal) are both 66. Bosnian-Dutch director Ena
Sendijarević is the youngest at 36.
Languages Represented- There are 14 dominant
languages- Arabic (Ireland), Danish (Denmark and Iceland), Dutch, Finnish,
French (Belgium, France and Switzerland), German (Germany and the UK), Greek, Italian
(Austria), Luxembourgish, Norwegian, Persian (Sweden), Portuguese, Spanish, and
Wolof (Italy). There are also healthy doses of Icelandic, Indonesian
(Netherlands), Lingala (Belgium) and Swedish in their respective films.
How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Most of
them….I’d say 11 or 12.
Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- All of
these countries have been nominated except Luxembourg and Portugal….and I don’t
see that changing this year. The UK is the most likely to win for the first
time.
Buzziest Films: “Zone of Interest” by auteurs….”Society
of Snow” thanks to Netflix….and “The Taste of Things” because of the divisive
critical reaction.
Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 20, 2023): Best: UK (4.1)
Worst: Luxembourg (3.2)
Dumbest Decision: Well, most people say it’s
FRANCE for selecting “The Taste of Things” over Palme d’Or winner, Golden
Globe nominee and Best Actress contender “Anatomy of a Fall”…..But France had a
difficult decision. NORWAY made a big mistake in my opinion when
deciding to pick a nature documentary…. But I’m giving this award to AUSTRIA
for choosing a reality-show docu-drama over a film (“The Fox”) that could
have legitimately contended for an Oscar nomination.
Controversies and Changes: Other
than the failure to submit “Anatomy of a Fall”, there were no major
controversies from the region, although Austria almost failed to submit a film
when their new internal rules disqualified most of their own selection
committee. (I think it said that all members must have two film credits in the
past five years…which some distinguished filmmakers like Michael Haneke couldn’t
meet).
I expected a controversy from Finland where temperamental
Aki Kaurismaki usually doesn’t allow his films to be submitted….but he allowed “Fallen
Leaves” to be sent without incident.
Oscar History: In
total, a whopping ten of these 18 countries have previously submitted
directors.
We have three Oscar nominees in the race: Nikolaj Arcel
(Denmark) got an Oscar nomination for “A Royal Affair” in 2013, Aki Kaurismaki
(Finland) got one for “The Man Without A Past” in 2003 and Trần Anh Hùng
(France) got one for “The Scent of Green Papaya” (representing his native
Vietnam) in 1994.
I admit that I thought JA Bayona was an Oscar nominee for “The
Impossible”….but he wasn’t.
Matteo Garrone has represented Italy twice before, with “Gomorrah”
in 2008 and “Dogman” in 2018. Joao Canijo has represented Portugal twice
before, with “Noite Escura” in 2005 and “Blood of My Blood” in 2012.
Tran also represented Vietnam for “Vertical Ray of the Sun”
while Kaurismaki was selected to represent Finland three times before, although
he threw a temper tantrum and demanded that two of them (“Drifting Clouds” and “Lights
in the Dusk”) be withdrawn before the viewing stage.
Here for the second time: Austria’s Tizza Covi and Rainer
Frimmel (“La Pivellina”, 2010), Iceland’s Hlynur Palmason (“A White, White Day”,
2019), Ireland’s Garry Keane (“Gaza”, 2019), Spain’s JA Bayona (“The Orphanage”,
2007) and Norway’s Margreth Olin (“Angel”, 2010).
Of the 18 Western European countries, 9 have won the
Oscar multiple times (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain,
Sweden and Switzerland), 4 have been nominated multiple times (Belgium, Greece,
Norway, UK) and 3 have been nominated just once (Finland, Iceland,
Ireland). Just two- Luxembourg and Portugal- are waiting for their first
shortlist spot. Portugal holds the world record for most submissions (39) without
ever advancing to the second round.
Most Notable Omissions: Wow…This year, there were a
lot of front-runners who failed to make the Oscar shortlist. Interestingly,
ten of these countries now announce a list of the finalists that they consider (Austria
and Belgium are the only major countries that don’t) so we have a good idea of
exactly who came close.
Of course, Palme d’Or winner and Oscar frontrunner “Anatomy
of a Fall” was the most notable omission…but France has so much to choose from
and the “one country, one film” will always affect them the most. The other high-profile
omissions were Alice Rohrwacher’s “La Chimera” (Italy), “Close Your Eyes” (Spain)
and “The Fox” (Austria).
Also out: “Eismayer” (Austria), “When It Melts” (Belgium), “Before
It Ends” (Denmark, by Oscar -winning Short Film director Anders Walter), “Afire”
(Germany), “Black Stone” (Greece), “Driving Mum” (Iceland), “There’s Still
Tomorrow” and “Kidnapped” (Italy), “When We Lost to the Germans” (Netherlands),
“Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” (Norway, although it didn’t even make the
national shortlist), “20,000 Species of Bees” (Spain), and “Paradise is Burning”
(Sweden).
Most
Famous Face: Of course it’s a tie between Oscar winner Juliette Binoche (France)
and international film star Mads Mikkelsen (Denmark). But I’d like to offer a
bronze medal to Iranian actor Payman Maadi (“A Separation”) who stars in “Opponent”
(Sweden).
Last Year’s Race: I saw 17 of the 19 films
from this region last year. Although they dominated the Oscar shortlist, I
mostly wasn’t impressed. The best were the Oscar-nominated “Close” and the
surprisingly good “Nostalgia” from Italy (I almost didn’t watch it as I thought
it looked terrible). The rest (in order):
Sweden and Iceland (A-), Portugal, France, Finland, Germany
(B+) Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Malta, Luxembourg (B) UK, Netherlands (B-), Spain
(C) and Greece (D). I didn’t see the films from Norway (which was only released
as a Netflix TV miniseries in the USA) and Switzerland (though I have the DVD
sitting unwatched in my living room).
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