BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- THE AMERICAS PREDICTIONS (22 countries)

And here are my predictions for the 22 countries of the Americas.....Last year, I predicted two-thirds correctly (11/17). 

Last year, these countries got two spots on the shortlist for (the annoying) "Universal Language" and the lovely winner, "I'm Still Here"

  ARGENTINA- “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (La virgen de la tosquera) Argentina always picks a film that premiered at a major festival…In the past ten years, they picked seven brand-new films that premiered right around the deadline (5 from Venice and 2 from Toronto) and just three early releases (two from Berlin and one from Cannes). This is a rough year for Argentina. Their only Cannes/Berlin entry was “The Message” and that didn’t get very good reviews. Popular director Pablo Trapero is working in English (“&Sons”), while Lucrecia Martel is at Venice with a documentary (they’ve never picked one before). I’m pretty sure they’ll choose between “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (Sundance) about an adolescent girl who resorts to black magic, and the upcoming “Homo Argentum”, a series of comedy vignettes about the absurdities of Argentine life. If “Homo” can get selected for a big festival like Toronto or San Sebastian, I think it will be selected. But if not, the Sundance label will get “Quarry Lake” selected. Other options (in order): gambling drama “Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed” (Cannes 2024), LGBT drama “Astronaut Lovers” and grim family drama “La Quinta” (San Sebastian 2024).

  BOLIVIA- “The Dog Thief” (El ladrón de perros) It’s been a slow year for Bolivian cinema but they have one great choice- “The Dog Thief” – which has been playing at festivals around the world and which just won “Best First Feature” at the Pan-American “Platino Awards” and got Bolivia’s first-ever nomination in the Best Ibero-American Feature category at the Mexican Ariel Awards. It’s a great little film although I still don’t really get the ending. The only problem is that its writer-director is Chilean….and the crew is fairly international….but it has been competing as a Bolivian film at festivals. Some others are talking about UK-Spain-Bolivian co-production “Cielo” which has similar nationality problems but less buzz….But I think “The Dog Thief” is in.

  BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” For the first time ever, Brazil is in the Oscar race as returning champion. Last year, they learned that if you go with your biggest and best film, you can win an Oscar. Brazil has a lot of very good films this year. But with the Academy’s prioritization of “bigger”, it’s obvious they’ll go with Kleber Mendonca Filho’s crime drama “The Secret Agent”, which won Best Actor and Director at Cannes. This period drama, set in the 70s just like “I’m Still Here”, is about a mysterious man who returns to his hometown of Recife and it has the buzz and awards that should automatically get the film to the shortlist….and also strong reviews that will very possibly get it to the nomination stage. Two potential problems? The film is scheduled to premiere in Brazil in November….but I think they’ll do a qualifying release. Also Kleber was picked just two years ago…but winning the Oscar last year will teach them that they just need to pick their film with the best chance.  Other films likely to be on Brazil’s shortlist: “Manas” (Venice Days Winner, 2024), “Vitoria”, a star vehicle crime drama for 95-year old grande dame Fernanda Montenegro, and three of Brazil’s five Best Picture nominees from their national Film Awards- “Baby” (Cannes Critics Week 2024), “Kasa Branca” and “Malu” (Sundance 2024). Oscar nominee Montenegro is a national treasure, so “Vitoria” is probably the only other film that could realistically be considered….though “Manas”, about women growing up in a remote Amazon community, probably has the best reviews, and LGBT drama “Baby” looks most interesting.

  CANADA- “The Things You Kill” I’m hearing rumors that Canada is leaning towards “The Things You Kill”, a Turkish-language thriller that won Best Director in the International Competition at Sundance. The Canadian Academy is (oddly) inclined against the French-language Quebecois films that traditionally dominated here for 50 years. In the past five years, they’ve never picked a majority French-language film…..though they did have to replace the Tamil/English-language “Funny Boy” with a French one when it was disqualified. “The Things That Kill” is a revenge movie about a man plotting a murder after the suspicious death of his elderly mother. It was made in Turkey by an Iranian director based in Canada. Three previously submitted directors are also strong contenders this year– comedy-drama “Lovely Day”, which is due to premiere in Toronto (Philippe Falardeau, “Monsieur Lazhar”), France-set “Shepherds”, which won Best Canadian Film at Toronto 2024 (Sophie Deraspe, “Antigone”) and Inuit fairy tale “Wrong Husband/Uiksaringitara” which premiered in Berlinale (Zacharius Kunuk, “Atanarjuat”). And there are two other very well-reviewed French-language films that look exactly like the sorts of films that Canada usually liked to send- “My Mother, God and Sylvie Varta”, a comedy-drama about a determined Mom raising a handicapped child in 1960s Canada, and “Two Women” (Sundance), a dramedy about the misadventures of two modern but disillusioned middle-aged women. I’m predicting “Things That Kill” based on buzz, but it’s by no means a done deal. A new film could emerge in Toronto in September….or they could choose one of the very good French-language alternates. The most likely from this list is “Two Women”….or maybe “Lovely Day”. Canada hasn’t been nominated since 2012 though they’ve gotten shortlisted twice since then…for two of their weakest submissions.

  CHILE- “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” (La misteriosa mirada del flamenco) AIDS parable “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” won the Cannes Un Certain Regard award and it’s definitely the most likely Chilean submission unless something comes along at the last minute. There were high hopes for Sebastian Lelio’s “La ola” (Cannes), his first Spanish-language film since winning the Oscar for “A Fantastic Woman”….but this drama about a feminist student on a university campus has gotten middling reviews that are nowhere near as good as “Flamingo”. Other options: western “Bitter Gold”, Pinochet-era drama “Cuerpo Celeste”, and home invasion thriller “The Righteous”. But “Flamingo” should win this relatively easily.

  COLOMBIA- “A Poet” (Un poeta) The obvious choice for Colombia is “A Poet”, which won the Un Certain Regard Jury Prize at Cannes 2025. This comedy-drama about a disillusioned poet tutoring a teenager arguably has the best reviews of any Colombian film this year. Director Simon Mesa Soto was previously a favorite to represent Colombia for “Amparo” (they rightfully picked the excellent “Kings of the World” instead), and “Poet” will get a qualifying release in late August. Four others to watch in a very strong year for Colombian cinema: western “Adios Al Amigo” (Tokyo), family murder drama “The Other Side” (HBO Max), queer Hell comedy “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance), and “Salt Water”, a very weird but well-reviewed LGBT movie about a gay man who confronts the priest who gave him his first sexual experience. “The Other Side” will probably be the runner-up and may go to the Goyas.

  COSTA RICA- “The Altar Boy, the Priest and the Gardener” (El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero ) Costa Rica will probably choose between documentary ” El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero” which won Best Costa Rican film at their national film festival, and “La piel del agua”, which premiered at a Locarno sidebar in 2024. The documentary – about two adult victims who come forward to present evidence in a landmark case against the priest who abused them – has much better reviews. Although Costa Rica has never picked a documentary before, this is likely to be their first.

  CUBA- “Cherri” Cuba has only sent one film in the past four years….and it was disqualified for unknown reasons (“El mundo de Nelsito” was assigned to a group of Academy voters for viewing but it was never downloaded into the online Screening Room and was later removed from committee assignments). They rejoined the Spanish Goya competition last year after an absence of several years. Could the Oscars be next? Cuba’s national film body (the ICAIC) published a press release this year that they were experiencing a “period of renewal” with a large number of new films in production, including one by Oscar nominee Jorge Perugorria (“Strawberry and Chocolate”). The only option I know that has actually been screened this year is comedy “Cherri”, which repped Cuba at the Miami Film Festival. It’s a drama about a lonely, overweight, gay dance instructor and I’ve heard very good things about it.

  DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Bionico’s Bachata” (La Bachata de Bionico) The Dominicans have quite a competitive race this year. On paper, “Pepe”, a weird, dreamy “Uncle Boonmee”-style film about a ghostly hippopotamus, should be the frontrunner since it won Best Director at Berlinale 2024. But reviews have not been good and I’m not sure how it won. The Dominicans will likely also consider other three festival films - “Bionico’s Bachata” (SXSW), “Olivia and the Clouds” (Locarno, Filmmakers of the Present), and “Sugar Island” (Venice Days), plus two local releases, musical biopic “La Grande”, and “Tiger” by José María Cabral, one of my favorite Latin American directors and who has represented the DR three times. The Dominican Republic is one of those rare countries that usually seems to send their actual best film….and “Bachata”, a dark comedy about a crack addict trying to get clean, definitely has the best reviews and won an Audience Award at SXSW. This shows that it appeals to U.S. audiences (unlike the arty “Pepe” which won in Europe). I have “Pepe” in second place, followed by “Tiger”, which focuses on the Dominican Republic’s unhealthy toxic masculinity culture followed by “Olivia & the Clouds”, a quirky animated film telling one story from several perspectives a la “Rashomon”. I’m hoping for Cabral (whose films are always amazing) but would also be happy to see "Bionico" succeed.

  ECUADOR- “Fishgirl” (Alucina) Ecuador has two very cool-looking fantasy films competing this year- “Alucina (Fishgirl)” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Chuzalongo”, which was picked to represent Ecuador at the 2025 Goyas. “Chuzalongo” is a horror-drama rooted in local indigenous mythology about a child with the power to heal the crops…but who also requires human blood to work his magic.  “Alucina” is a comedy about a woman with amnesia…whose best friend is an imaginary giant fish. “Chuzalongo” didn’t get a Goya nomination last year (although Ecuador has only ever gotten one once....and that was 25 years ago) while “Alucina” played at a major festival so that’s my prediction.  I’ve heard it’s quite an odd but moving film. Dark horse: Ana Cristina Barragan has a new film premiering in Venice called "The Ivy" (Hiedra) about a mother who reconnects with the son she gave up for adoption when she got pregnant at age 13. It has no general release date and I think it will be eligible next year....but Barragan will probably be chosen if it does. Other options include documentary “Carmela and the Walkers” and political mockumentary “Victor Presidente”. 

  GUATEMALA- “Un Caquero sin Pisto” As far as I know, the only Guatemalan film eligible this year is romantic comedy “Un caquero sin pisto” which was released in late July. Guatemala did launch an official call for submissions but I predict they will take this year off.

  HAITI- “Kidnapping Inc.” There were unofficial reports that Haiti submitted comedy-thriller “Kidnapping Inc.” to the Oscars last year but it didn’t appear on the official list. It appears likely that the Oscar selection committee that chose the film wasn’t officially recognized by AMPAS. In the past few years, AMPAS has allowed several films in this situation (including Bhutanese Oscar nominee “Lunana” and last year’s Tajik submission “Melody”) to compete the following year. “Kidnapping Inc.” was clearly made on a tight budget by a team that loves the movies....It was a breath of fresh air and one of the most entertaining submissions last year (it’s available on Amazon) and I hope it gets a chance to compete (though of course it won’t be nominated). This year, Haiti also has the long-delayed political thriller “July 7” and Canadian-Haitian documentary “At All Kosts”, about artists protesting political dysfunction and gang violence.

 HONDURAS- “Navidad Catracha 2: El origen” Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020. This year, I know of only two local films and they are highly unlikely to send either one. The director of one of their previous submissions has a new Christmas movie (“Navidad Catracha 2: El origen”) that premiered in December and that's slightly more likely than commercial comedy “El hombre se ha vuelto loco”.

  MEXICO- “Olmo”  As usual, Mexico has a fairly interesting and competitive race. They somehow got shortlisted (but not nominated) four years in a row from 2020-2023 (I thought three of these films were terrible) but “Sujo” broke their winning streak. But still, their record shows that the Mexicans are very good at figuring out what their Northern neighbors will like. And I think that will be “Olmo” (Berlin), a coming-of-age dramedy about a Mexican immigrant family in New Mexico, which is executive produced by Brad Pitt. This kind of gentle drama usually works well for Mexico and the idea that Pitt would campaign for the film will surely push it ahead of the pack. Mexico also tends to choose late releases….so I there’s a strong potential chance for “En el camino” (produced by another Hollywood movie star….Mexican actor Diego Luna), an upcoming movie about a gay drifter and hitchhiker. It’s set to premiere at Venice Horizons. In 3rd place- Ariel Best Picture nominee (the only one that is eligible) “No nos moveran” (We Shall Not Be Moved), about an attorney trying to get justice for the murder of her brother, nearly 60 years earlier. Likely to be on Mexico's shortlist (but unlikely to be picked): family drama “The Devil Smokes” (Berlin) and hit mainstream comedy “Corina” (Tallinn Black Nights). But I think they'll pick one of the films that has a Hollywood connection. 

  NICARAGUA- Nothing Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010. Leonardo DiCaprio has been promoting Nicaraguan environmental documentary “Patrol” (Patrullaje) but I think it was eligible last year.

  PANAMA- “Beloved Tropic” (Querido trópico)  Panama has the most competitive race in Central America. There are at least a half dozen films that could easily represent the country- three dramas and three documentaries (Panama has selected four documentaries since joining the Oscar race in 2014). Of the three fiction features- “Beloved Tropic”, “Espina” and “Papeles”- I think the frontrunner is “Beloved Tropic” (San Sebastian), a Colombian co-production starring luminous Chilean actress Paulina Garcia (“Gloria”) as a woman with dementia, and centering on her relationship with her immigrant caretaker. It won Best Central American Film in Costa Rica. Of the three documentary features – “The Panama Canal Treaties: Son of Tiger and Mule”, “The Sorcerer” and “Wild Gleaming Space” – I give the edge to “The Sorcerer” an artistic documentary-animation hybrid that won the Audience Award at Panama’s national film festival.  Panama likes documentaries…but I think “Beloved Tropic” will get this and that “Sorcerer” will be runner-up. It's important to note that “Wild Gleaming Space”, a documentary about mortality, is produced by Abner Benaim who directed Panama’s only shortlisted film….and that journalism thriller “Papeles” is directed by Arturo Montenegro who has already been picked twice. Political considerations may also come into play. “The Panama Canal Treaties” tells the story of 1970s negotiations with the U.S. to decide the future possession of the Panama Canal, which the new U.S. President has inexplicably reclaimed in a fiery series of speeches. I think that “Wild Gleaming Space” will come in third and comic drama “Espina” (the film I most want to see) will come fourth.

  PARAGUAY- “Under the Flags, the Sun” (Bajo las banderas, el sol) Paraguay rarely has films at international festivals but documentary “Under the Flags, the Sun”, premiered in Berlinale’s Panorama section this year. It tells the story of the 35 years of Paraguayan dictatorship (1954-1989) under Alfredo Stroessner through archive footage. Paraguay has picked documentaries before and this has good reviews so it’s safe to say it’s in.

  PERU- “Through Rocks and Clouds” (Raiz) Seven of Peru’s past eight submissions premiered at their Film Festival of Lima event, which is held every August. But because Peruvian films often take so much time to reach domestic cinemas, release dates are confusing. For example, two of those seven submissions (“Retablo” and “Rosa Chumbe”) were selected for the Oscars two years after they premiered! From last year’s festival, the two frontrunners would appear to be “Motherland” (Kinra), which won a few awards, and “Through Rocks & Clouds”, which won an award at Berlinale 2024 in the 14+ category. Both films are indigenous stories in Quechua and Spanish and appeared in the main competition in Lima. A third film, “Karuara”, which won Best Peruvian Film at Lima in 2024, is an animated film in the Cocama language.  From this year's festival, “Punku”, an environmental mystery that also played in Berlin and "1982", a village drama about local boys living amidst political turmoil, look the most likely. “Ramon y Ramon”, an LGBT drama from San Sebastian,  didn’t play in Lima but could be selected if they get a local release. Lastly, “Los indomables” could probably have been considered....but director Tito Catacora probably won’t be selected two years in a row.  “Through Rocks and Clouds”, about a young indigenous shepherd with cute kids and animals looks the most likely.

 PUERTO RICO- “This Island” (Esta isla) As I say every year, Puerto Rico was unfairly uninvited from the Oscars in 2010. One day, I believe AMPAS will realize their mistake and they’ll be allowed back when this ridiculous rule (that only affects Puerto Rico) is reversed. If it’s this year, Puerto Rico will surely send “This Island” which just won three awards at the Tribeca Film Festival. It’s a thriller about an impoverished young man and his wealthy girlfriend fleeing to the countryside following a violent family tragedy. Suerte, Puerto Rico!

 SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent one film to the Oscars in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This year they have a really interesting documentary option called “Monikondee” (literally ‘money country’) about a boatman who delivers cargo to a remote “wild west” region inhabited by indigenous people, former slaves, gold miners and multinational corporations, in a sort of "no man's land" between Suriname and French Guiana. It has Surinamese and Dutch co-directors and looks eligible.

  URUGUAY- “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame Fuerte) I think Uruguay will select “Don’t You Let Me Go”, a drama about grief and female friendship. It played at Tribeca ‘24, winning the Nora Ephron Award last year. I expected it would represent Uruguay last year but it didn’t get a domestic release until October 2024. Director Leticia Jorge has been picked once before. The two other strong possibilities are “A Bright Future” (Tribeca 25), a quirky sci-fi drama about a young woman in a futuristic dystopian world and “Perros” (Malaga) about a war between two feuding families. Uruguay often chooses genre films (especially comedies but also horror films) so I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked zombie comedy “Summer Hit/El tema del verano” (directed by 2004 Cannes UCR winner Pablo Stoll and co-starring Daniel Hendler) or action-thriller “Las 7 Balas”.

  VENEZUELA- “Visceral” Despite decades of political and economic crises, Venezuela has an accomplished film industry. They’ve sent a film to the Oscars every year since 1996 (they were disqualified once) and they have hosted a Festival of Venezuelan Cinema every year since 2005….until now. A few weeks ago, the Festival del Cine Venezolano was canceled for the first time which sadly means that Venezuelan national cinema has lost its largest platform. And although they still produce a lot of films, it looks most of their main contenders haven’t had the 7-day commercial release required to qualify. “Visceral” is a claustrophobic, psychological thriller about a married couple during COVID quarantine, that won a lot of awards at last year’s Festival de Cine Venezolano. I can confirm it got a cinematic release so that’s my pick. If “Zafari” (San Sebastian), a drama by Mariana Rondon (“Bad Hair”, “Postcards from Leningrad”) can get released somewhere then that’s equally likely. “Zafari” is about an impoverished family in Venezuela who live across the street from a zoo celebrating the arrival of a well-fed and pampered hippopotamus. Other options: docudrama “Lost Chapters” (Locarno) and migration drama “Hambre”. Dark horse: "La hija de la espanola", a new Venezuelan film premiering in Venice (also directed by Rondon), and starring Edgar Ramirez. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS (24 countries)

It's that time of year again! Here are my predictions for the countries of Eastern Europe. Last year I got 9 of the 18 submissions correct....and I'm feeling more confident this year. Let's see.....

Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania and tiny Montenegro (!) have particularly difficult decisions to make this year. 

Last year, this region only got two spots on the shortlist (for Czech Republic and Latvia) while they deserved at least three....Latvia, plus Albania and Romania. 

 

  ALBANIA- “Luna Park” Albania should have a fairly easy decision this year. I predicted “Luna Park”, a coming-of-age tale set during the early days of Albania’s chaotic and violent post-Communist era, in 2023. The film was delayed but finally premiered to excellent reviews at Thessaloniki 2024. Director Florenc Papas was selected in 2020 for his debut feature “Open Door”, and “Luna Park” marks the return to Albanian cinema of local star Nik Xhelilaj, who has been working mostly in Germany and Turkey for the past decade. Also in its favor….it’s the only Albanian film on the international circuit this year and I’ve no idea what else they would send.

  ARMENIA- “Thus Spoke the Wind” For now, Armenia’s submission looks likely to be “Thus Spoke the Wind” (Karlovy Vary), a crime drama set in a poor village, seen through the eyes of a child. I was originally going to predict “After Dreaming”, an abstract non-linear “meditation on war” that premiered at a Berlinale sidebar in 2025 and was the only Armenian feature competing at the local Golden Apricot Film Festival. Like “Amerikatsi”, it has an Armenian-American director….but this film looks way too weird to repeat “Amerikatsi”’s shortlist feat so I think it will come second place. Also possible:  documentaries “Alone”, about a French filmmaker learning about her Armenia roots by researching ancestors who lived during the 1915 Armenian Genocide, or “Fight”, about a young girl who wishes to be a veterinarian against the wishes of her conservative family. The Armenian Academy got some flack last year for picking a comedy over an acclaimed nationalist documentary….but I personally loved the quirky “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” which was a breath of fresh air among last year’s overdramatic submissions.

  AZERBAIJAN- “Motherland” Azerbaijan doesn’t usually send a film – they’ve only done so three times in the past ten years - but now that I’m living in Baku again I really hope they return! And the good news is that they launched an official call for submissions in June so things are looking up. This year Azerbaijan had a very warmly received film called “My Magical World” at the GoEast film festival in Germany and a weird arty film Out of Competition at Venice by prolific director Hilal Baydarov. Let’s hope they send “My Magical World”, which is about a talented aspiring folk singer who is trying to get on a prominent local TV show. The problem is that I don’t think it has screened in Azerbaijani cinemas…or cinemas in any other country. The most likely candidate that did play in Azerbaijani cinemas is probably “Motherland”, a patriotic film set during the wars with Armenia in the 1990s. It was advertised as the first film to be partially filmed in the territories recovered from Armenian occupation in 2020. Most importantly, director Ilgar Safat got the Azerbaijanis to fill out the paperwork and submit one of his previous films in 2010. They also could send “Azerbaijan Atabəyləri”, a historical costume drama that looks like the movies neighboring Kazakhstan likes to send. But it’s also very possible neither of these has any English subtitles….“My Magical World” would really be their best bet.

  BELARUS- “Kinoshiki” Of course Belarus will not submit a film. They sent a few films from 1994-1996 and again 2018-2020 but were never a regular participant in this category. Since their 2020 disqualification and their 2022 backing for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they’ve been absent. If the government-allied committee did send a film, it would likely be “Kinoshiki”, a comedy about filmmaking that opened the national Listapad Film Festival in 2024. If they organize a committee in exile, then it would probably be “Motherland”, a documentary about army violence, by two Belarusian filmmakers, and which got financial support from the EU.

  BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “The Pavilion” Bosnia is likely to send black comedy “The Pavilion”, starring Rade Šerbedžija, which will open the Sarajevo Film Festival in August. It’s about a substandard nursing home. Bosnia usually does not have trouble getting a qualifying release for its Oscar contenders but if “The Pavilion” isn’t eligible, I suspect they may send “Blum – Masters of their Own Destiny”, a documentary by Oscar nominee and Berlinale Golden Bear winner Jasmila Zbanic (“Quo Vadis Aida?”, “Grbavica”) about a Yugoslavian Jew who became one of his country’s leading industrialists during the Communist era. Two dark horses: “The Will”, another dark comedy, this time a sequel to a popular film, set in a village in the waning days of Communism (it would also require a qualifying release); and “When Santa Was a Communist”, a third black comedy (the Bosnians do these well), which could benefit from its U.S.-based director.

  BULGARIA- “Windless” I hate predicting the same film two years in a row but “Windless” wasn’t released in Bulgaria until March 2025 after its successful premiere at Karlovy Vary in 2024. Since then, “Windless” won Best Bulgarian Film at two of Bulgaria’s three main precursor awards (“Triumph”, Bulgaria’s disappointing Oscar submission last year, won the third). It’s about a Bulgarian man who returns home from abroad to settle his father’s estate, and who becomes unwillingly involved in old conflicts. Its main competition is “Made in EU”, which is premiering in Venice. Stephan Komandarev is an enormously respected Bulgarian director who has been picked three times and who got Bulgaria’s only shortlist spot (he deserved a second for “Blaga’s Lessons”). “Made in EU”, about the exploitation of garment workers and the fear and chaos of the early days of COVID-19, is likely to defeat “Windless” but I think it will be eligible next year. If neither gets selected, the two dark horse runner-ups are stories featuring handicapped protagonists: “Tarika”, a drama about a superstitious village who believes that a disabled local girl has supernatural powers, and “Wingless” (confusing since the frontrunner is “Windless”), an uplifting true story of a Bulgarian athlete who continues to compete after losing both arms. Likely to appear on the Bulgarian longlist: sports biopic “Gundi: Legend of Love” and village dramedy “Wild Strawberries”. Probably not eligible: comedy “Black Sea”, about an African-American in Bulgaria, which has two American directors and I think it’s more than 50% in English.

  CROATIA- “Fiume o morte!” Three of the four films I predicted would contend to represent Croatia last year didn’t get a qualifying release until this year (“Celebration”, “Frka” and “Wrath of God”). And ten new Croatian films (not all of which are eligible) screened at this year’s Pula Film Festival in July, where two documentaries (“Fiume o morte!”, “Peacemaker”) and three fiction features (“Drazen”, “Good Children” and “Sandbag Dam”) shared the main awards. To that list of eight, I’m going to add dark comedy “South Wind”, which opened Pula and got pretty great reviews, even though it didn’t win anything. Hybrid documentary “Fiume o morte!” does NOT look like Oscar’s cup of tea…But this anti-fascist film about citizens of the town of Rijeka re-enacting scenes from a famous Italian occupation, has been a critical darling that reviewers say is creative, funny and original…and it was the big winner at the Pula Film Festival with six awards, and it also won a major award at Rotterdam and Best Picture at the Golden Apricot Film Festival in Yerevan. The Croatian Academy usually goes with something unusual and edgy, rarely choosing the favorite (“Safe Place” was a notable exception). In second place- “Celebration”, a divisive historical drama that was the big winner at Pula last year. Rounding out the Top Five in a strong year- “South Wind”, a dark comedy about the residents of an apartment building in Split, “Sandbag Dam”, a critically-acclaimed LGBT drama (but I doubt conservative Croatia will send gay films two years in a row…), and “Frka”, a youthful “Run Lola Run”-esque thriller. Unlikely to premiere in time: “God Will Not Help” (Sarajevo), about a Latina bride who moves to a rural community…..Croatian arthouse films usually take awhile to reach cinemas. Oddly enough, last year’s submission- “Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day” – got beautiful reviews but didn’t seem to get any kind of international release (and the official Croatian film catalogue doesn’t mention that it ever premiered locally either). It was the first time in 25 years that Croatia picked a film from outside the Pula universe….usually the main showcase for Croatian cinema.

  CZECH REPUBLIC- “Broken Voices” The Czech Academy has brought us the first controversy of the year. It sent its voters a shortlist of three films, but it “encouraged voters” to vote for “Broken Voices”. Czech voters and rival films said this was “manipulative” and unfair. The Czech Academy said they were simply offering a recommendation as to which film had the best chance in the U.S., and that voters could choose their favorite film regardless. Even before the controversy, I had already predicted that the three Czech frontrunners were “Broken Voices” (Karlovy Vary), “Caravan” (Cannes Un Certain Regard) and Agnieska Holland’s “Kafka” (Toronto). “Broken Voices” and “Caravan” made the Czech shortlist alongside documentary “I’m Not Everything I Want to Be”. Karlovy Vary is considered the most prestigious showcase of Czech cinema and this year the only Czech film in competition was “Broken Voices”, a drama based on a real-life child abuse scandal at a girl’s choir. “Caravan” is a drama about the exhausted mother of a mentally handicapped son whose flees the country to Italy in an RV caravan. “Broken Voices” seems to have better reviews than “Caravan” so it should be selected unless there is a backlash against the Czech “recommendation”.  

 ESTONIA- “Frank” Estonia has had a very lean year and they really don’t have any strong contenders. Their highest-profile film is a gory horror-musical called “Chainsaws were Singing” that I’ve heard is hilarious. Estonia has sent weird genre movies in the past…but this may be a bit much. I think they will quietly send “Frank”, a small but well-reviewed film about a violent young man desperately trying to make a new start in a new town. Period detective drama “The Shadow”, dysfunctional family drama “One-Dimensional Man” (too much English????), and political documentary “Rebel with a Bow Tie” will contend with “Chainsaws” to be the Estonian runner-up. On a side note, it’s really a shame that thriller “Lioness” couldn’t change its release date last year by just a few days. Estonia foolishly selected the awful “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” last year….but “Lioness” would have done well this year. 

  GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” Georgia almost always chooses a last-minute release so I’m banking on “Dry Leaf”, which is premiering at Locarno in a few weeks. Director Alexandre Koberidze came oh-so-close to representing Georgia with “What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?” in a competitive year. The three-hour “Dry Leaf” is about a man visiting a number of Georgian villages to piece together the details surrounding a missing photographer. There are also two very strong contenders that have already premiered – “Holy Electricity” (Locarno 2024), a quirky docudrama about two teens who make neon crosses, and which just won Best Picture at Georgia’s national film awards, and “Panopitcon” (Karlovy Vary 2024), a gritty drama about an incel that won a Jury Prize at Karlovy Vary last year. The rest of the top 5 options are “Venice” (Beijing), a Georgian “Two Days, One Night” made by a previously submitted director, and “Blueberry Dreams” (CPH:DOX), a documentary about a family living Georgia’s border with occupied Abkhazia. Dark horse: Russian co-production “Snowflakes in My Yard” got a Best Film nomination at Russia’s Nika Awards.  

  HUNGARY- “Growing Down” The past two Best Picture winners at the Hungarian Film Awards (“Blockade” and “Semmelweis”) got sent to the Oscars. That could happen again. This year’s winner was “How Could I Live With You?”, a popular musical-comedy which just became the biggest Hungarian box-office hit in modern Hungarian history. But the Hungarian Academy tends to choose very serious films so I think it will lose out to “Growing Down”, a B+W drama that competed in the Best First Feature category at Berlinale 2025. It’s about a man who witnesses his 12-year old son causing a serious accident, forcing him to decide whether to lie to the authorities. Musicals are hard to translate…so “Growing Down” seems the better option. Three films by previously submitted directors- “But What About Tomi?” (friendship between two alcoholics), “Jimmy Jaguar” (an arty horror film, a genre that Hungary has picked before) and “Vulture’s Wake” (a Hungarian “Big Chill”) could also contend, as could “Gone Running”, about a group of women who join a marathon to honor a dead relative. Dark horse: Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes has a baity new film premiering  in Venice and due to be released in Hungary in October. “Orphan”, his second film since “Son of Saul”, is about a boy growing up during the Communist era who meets his brutish, abusive father that his mother told him had died a hero. If Hungary arranges a qualifying release, it should be able to beat “Growing Down”.

  KOSOVO- “The Stork” In 2021, Kosovo’s Visar Morina deserved an Oscar nomination for “Exile”. In 2022, Kosovo almost got one when “Hive” was shortlisted. Two years later, Kosovo gave up entirely. Two years ago, they received four eligible submissions and refused to send any, and last year Kosovar filmmakers lamented that the Kosovo Cinematography Center (KCC) didn’t even launch a call for submissions. This year, the KCC did ask for submissions but local production has mostly been quiet. Morina has a new film in post-production (“Hatixhe And Shaban”) that I don’t think will debut in time. Isa Qosja, a Montenegro-born, ethnic Albanian filmmaker who directed Kosovo’s first-ever submission after AMPAS recognized them as an independent nation, has a new village comedy called “The Stork”.  As I say every year, I don’t understand any country turning down the free publicity that the Oscar label brings. Hopefully Qosja’s connections will lure Kosovo back to the competition where they belong.

  LATVIA- “In the Land That Sings” Latvia so strongly values its singing traditions that I think Maris Martinsons’ long-awaited “In the Land That Sings” will prevail. It’s a big 19^th century epic period piece, and Latvia tends to pick “big” films if they have them. In second place (and an inferior choice) would be “To Be Continued- Teenhood”, the documentary sequel to Latvia’s 2018 Oscar submission, following the same group of elementary school students who are now teens on the verge of adulthood. Basketball drama “Escape Net” and music biopic “Jumprava: The Happening” are by favorite national directors but probably will not premiere in time….So the only other serious contenders as of now are millennial coming-of-age drama “Youth Eternal” and scandal thriller “The Exalted”.

  LITHUANIA- “Toxic” Lithuania will have a tough time choosing just one film this year. Though they are the largest of the Baltic Republics, they’re the only one waiting for their first Oscar nomination. “The Southern Chronicles” would win the popularity contest. It’s been a box-office hit since its January 2025 premiere and it just swept the National Film Awards, winning Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Audience Award, and three of the four Acting awards. “Southern Chronicles” is a romantic-comedy set in the 1990s and it is supposed to be very good. But comedies…especially ones with such a specific national element….usually have an uphill climb to be nominated. So, I’m predicting “Toxic”, which won the Golden Leopard at Locarno 2024…and it’s so rare that Lithuania wins the Grand Prize at a Class-A festival! I think the Oscar success of “The Substance” will also help this grotesque teen modelling drama be selected. “Toxic” was the only other fiction feature to win anything at all at the Silver Crane awards. But it’s not just a two-way race! “Murmuring Hearts” won Best Documentary…even though it appears to be some kind of docufiction hybrid about a reform school…..and Lithuania likes docs, sending five since 2006. Two upcoming films- “The Visitor” (Karlovy Vary), a drama about the universal feelings of loss and disorientation when returning home after many years away, and “The Activist”, a thriller about a gay man who infiltrates the neo-Nazi organization whose members killed his partner - could be in the mix if reviews are strong enough. For now, I say the Golden Leopard propels “Toxic” to the front of the queue, followed by “Chronicles” and “The Activist”.

  MACEDONIA- “DJ Ahmet” Winning an award at Sundance- arguably the most influential film festival in the U.S. – is a surefire way to demonstrate that your film can resonate with American audiences. So “DJ Ahmet”, which won the 2025 Audience Award, is sure to represent Macedonia. “DJ” is a coming-of-age tale about a boy from the remote Yuruk community (this obscure Turkish-speaking community also got Macedonia their last Oscar nomination….for “Honeyland”). Ahmet journey to adulthood amidst conservative family and materialistic influences will surely resonate beyond his village. Variety lauded its “unforgettable ensemble, laugh-out-loud comedy and heartsore drama.” Read the reviews. Ahmet is in.

  MOLDOVA- “Turcoaica” Moldova returned to the Oscars in 2022 and had a very competitive selection in 2023. They skipped last year for unknown reasons (did they lose interest? Did the local films not meet AMPAS requirements?) so this year will probably indicate whether they plan to stay in the competition. I see four possible options (in alphabetical order)- (1) “The Alienated”, a supernatural Antichrist drama that premiered at Karlovy Vary 2024, (2)- “Povesti Moldovenesti”, a breezy anthology of short films showcasing the people and stories of Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, (3)- The Prince”, a comedy about an African prince who finds a job as a professor in Moldova and inadvertently finds himself arrested for human trafficking, and (4)- “Turcoaica” (“Turchanka” in Russian), an emotional melodrama about a man who returns his home village after a stint in prison. “Turcoaica” sounds the most “Oscary” since the other three are genre films. Interestingly enough, “The Prince” has become the first Moldovan film to get an Amazon release.

  MONTENEGRO- “Tower of Strength” Tiny Montenegro actually has an interesting two-way race this year between two period dramas about regional rivalries. Will they choose “Tower of Strength”, set during feuding Albanian and Montenegrin communities during World War II, or “Wondrous Is the Silence of My Master”, set during the 19^th century Balkan wars against the Turks. This will be a tough one. “Wondrous” got a festival premiere (Rotterdam) and tells a “bigger” story. But I’m predicting “Tower of Strength”, about a Christian refugee child who seeks refuge with an Albanian Muslim family, who is then threatened with death if they do not hand him over. The Balkans do “moral dilemmas” awfully well but director Nikola Vukcevic seems to have an awfully distinguished career in Montenegro and they may wish to reward him. But this will be a tough decision! 

  POLAND- “Chopin, Chopin” Poland always chooses a film that premieres at a major film festival. In the past ten years, they picked 4 Venice premieres, 3 Toronto premieres, 2 Cannes premieres and a Berlin premiere. The problem is that Polish-language films have been almost completely absent from the film festival circuit this year, including Cannes, Berlin, Venice and Toronto. Up until now, (August 1^st) they might have chosen between boxing drama “Kulej”, relationship dramedy “This Is Not My Film” and Belarusian opposition drama “Under the Grey Sky”. But it’s far more likely they’ll pick whichever of their 16 brand-new films at the Gdynia Film Festival they like best (and can get released by September 30). That’s most likely to be musical biopic “Chopin, Chopin” or “The Altar Boys”, about a bunch of teens rebelling against Catholic dogma. I hate biopics and I’d rather see “Altar Boys”, but “Chopin” looks much “grander”, is super expensive, and has a senior director who has been shortlisted before. It opens October 10th but is sure to arrange an early release if they want it to. In third place, “Good Home”, a drama about domestic violence, followed by the Belarus drama “Under the Grey Sky” and human trafficking drama “Capo”. Very dark horse: Agnieszka Holland made “Kafka” in the Czech Republic but it wasn’t shortlisted. It’s in Czech…but could Poland choose it now that they know nothing else was selected for Venice and Toronto?

  ROMANIA- “Kontinental 25” For Romania, I see a lot of online chatter talking about “The New Year That Never Came”, a critically acclaimed historical drama with intersecting stories a la “Crash” that premiered at Venice ’24 and which dominated the Romanian Gopo Awards. Others are talking about Cristian Mungiu’s latest film “Fjord”, starring up-and-coming Romanian-born Oscar nominee Sebastian Stan and Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve. But neither is eligible. “New Year” premiered four days before the eligibility date and ”Fjord” is mostly in English (and apparently not finished).  So, it’s very unclear what Romania will pick. Radu Jude has been picked four times in the past ten years…could he make it five? He won the Silver Berlin Bear for moral dilemma drama “Kontinental 25”…though Oscar has shown no affection for him (“Bad Luck Banging” and “Aferim!” are quite good). 81-year old Stere Gulea is a respected director who hasn’t been picked since 1996. “The Moromete Family 3: Father and Son” is the third part in an acclaimed trilogy that began during Communist times. Reviews have been great but sequels are always a tough sell. A third option is “Traffic”, a drama about Romanian migrant workers that was written (but not directed) by Cristian Mungiu. Lastly, we have “Holy Family” (Sarajevo), a drama about anti-Semitism. I do think they’ll want to give someone new a chance…but reviews for “Continental” are probably the best of the four, and the Silver Bear will help him to get a fifth chance at Oscar. “Traffic” will likely come second.

  RUSSIA- “This Summer Will End” There’s no point in spending much time talking about Russia. Russia was one of Oscar’s most successful countries, earning five shortlist spots in the eight years (2014-2021) before they quit the competition in protest at Western anger at their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine (?!). Since then, they’ve also been absent from major film festivals. If they did enter (which they won’t), I think they’d pick something with star power, or something that shows Russia in a positive light. So, I’m thinking “This Summer Will End”, starring this year’s Russian Oscar nominee Yura Borisov (“Anora”)….or maybe war film “Blood Type”, which highlights Nazi atrocities against Soviet children…. Or possibly “License to Love” which won the Russian competition at the Moscow International Film Festival. Or maybe upcoming war drama “August”. But they won’t enter so it doesn’t matter.

  SERBIA- “God Be With Us" (aka Great Tram Robbery) Ah, Serbia. They make some wonderful edgy films but their Academy literally makes the worst decisions in all of Europe. In the past six years, they’ve chosen four stuffy historical dramas about Serbian history, each time over critically acclaimed festival competition. Four of those six directors were 55 years old or older ….That would seem to make the Serbian frontrunner “Sectio Aurea 42” by an 81-year old director who was last submitted to the Oscars in 1978. It’s a baity WWII drama about three siblings who end up in a concentration camp. Milorad Milinkovic, another senior director, passed away in January and his latest- a period murder mystery called “Pearl Mist”- would also fit the Serbian profile. The problem is that neither of these has premiered yet so it’s unclear if they’re eligible. “Great Tram Robbery”, the big-budget, glossy 1920s period piece that I predicted last year, has a 78-year old director and is my pick again this year. If they want something more modern, they could consider “Bauk”, “How Come It’s So Green Out Here?” (Karlovy Vary), “Mother Mara” (Sarajevo 24), docudrama “Eighty Plus” (Berlinale Forum), and “Wind, Talk to Me” (Rotterdam)…..but they usually don’t. “Wind” has the best chance out of these but I think they’ll go with one of the big period pieces by old guys.

  SLOVAKIA- “Father” Slovakia doesn’t have much to choose from this year. They’ve been touting “Caravan”, about a mother burdened with a handicapped son, as a Slovak film, including at Cannes Film Market…but it has a Czech director, three Czech writers, two Czech producers (one producer is Slovak) and a mostly Czech/Italian cast (one lead actress is Slovak)…so I’m doubtful that will be considered “Slovak artistic control”. “Perla”, an Austrian co-production, also straddles the line but would probably be okay since the Austria-based writer-director has dual nationality. Box-office smash mob drama “Cernak” would have a chance but it’s a “part two” to a story that most Americans won’t know. The Slovak Academy likes documentaries so music doc “Duchon” or political doc “Ms. President” could also be selected. All of those are possible, but I think they’ll choose between family tragedy “Father” (Venice), about the death of an infant child, or “Promise Me, I’ll Be Fine” (aka “Utekac”), a village coming-of-age drama about a 15-year old and his mother who may be involved in criminal activities. Both are genuinely Slovak (though Slovakia often chooses stories set in other countries).

  SLOVENIA- “Little Trouble Girls” Adolescent drama “Little Trouble Girls” premiered at Berlinale, winning one small award. It’s about the tense relationships between a group of girls at a Catholic school. With its main competition – “Fantasy” (Locarno) and “Whites Wash at Ninety” - not expected to premiere until the fall, “Girls” should win this easily.

  UKRAINE- “2000 Meters to Andriivka” First of all, it’s incredible that the resilient Ukrainians are making high-quality cinema despite the war. This year, it would be foolish to bet against Oscar winner Mstyslav Chernov’s grim new documentary “2000 Meters to Andriivka” which just won Best Documentary at the Sundance Film Festival. This movie about a journalist embedded with a Ukrainian platoon is said to be almost as good as “20 Days to Mariupol”…and it’s proven to be a winning formula for Oscar. But Ukraine does have a plethora of other options, including thriller “Honeymoon”, films from the main competition of Cannes (“Two Prosecutors”, Sergey Loznitsa) and Berlin (documentary “Timestamp”), “Grey Bees” (which won Best Ukrainian Fiction Film at the Odessa Film Festival and Ukrainian Film Critics Association) and new films by acclaimed local directors Roman Bondarchuk (“Editorial Office”) and Eva Neymann (“When Lightning Flashes Over the Sea”). I don’t think any of them can beat “Andriivka” but “Grey Bees”, a drama about two pensioners living in the wartorn Donbass region, would have the best chance. Slava Ukraini!