So, I was waiting to write this until I found three hours in my schedule to go watch "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" at my local arthouse cinema....But I failed. Nevertheless, I've seen 11 of the 15 finalists, including all but one of the films "on the bubble" (Canada's "Universal Language"). So I feel pretty good about the ranking below.
First off, I predicted 12 of the 15 finalists correctly....probably my best ever. But this is a hollow victory because the new Oscar rules now benefit the most-watched choices rather than the best. I missed "Santosh" (from the country with the second-largest number of AMPAS members) and "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" (a big word-of-mouth hit) but had them as alternates. I also predicted a snub for "Dahomey" because it's such a poor film...forgetting that that isn't important at all.
Three films- Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig are widely seen as locks. It would be a huge shock if any of them missed on nomination morning. But those last two spots could honestly go to eight other films. I'm hoping that the two best- Touch and Kneecap- get those spots....But it's almost certain one or both will miss.
Here are my predictions:
VIRTUAL LOCKS:
1. BRAZIL,
“I’m Still Here”
2. FRANCE,
“Emilia Perez”
3. GERMANY,
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
So, these three are the consensus
favorites to make the next round so I don’t have too much to say. They’ve all been
nominated at every major precursor (“Emilia Perez” missed at the Satellite
Awards) and they’re being predicted by virtually everyone. A poll on Awardsdaily shows 94% support for all three.
People who have seen all three
films almost universally praise “I’m Still Here” as the Best Foreign Language
Film of the year.....Cannes Jury Prize winner “Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a critical
fave with a great backstory.....and “Emilia Perez” is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with the power of Netflix, a Golden Globe...and - perhaps most importantly- is
a threat in a dozen other categories and is the clear favorite to win. If Fernanda Torres fails
to get a Best Actress nomination, “Perez” will automatically be crowned the winner.
Sadly, I’ve only been able to see “Emilia Perez”. I had so much fun watching it….but
I’m shocked that it’s being nominated for so many awards. Gascon and Gomez are
fine….but Oscar-worthy performances? Rather ridiculous.
IN A STRONG POSITION:
4. IRELAND,
“Kneecap”
5. ITALY,
“Vermiglio”
6. ICELAND,
“Touch”
The drug-fueled rapper comedy from Ireland - "Kneecap" - doesn't look like your usual Oscar nominee....But it has a number of advantages. First of all, it's one of the best films on the list, and it's a genuine crowdpleaser....though that didn't help "Les Intouchables" or "The Good Boss" make it beyond the shortlist. But it also got an early cinematic release in the USA, and has been buzzing ever since. Perhaps most importantly, it's hit most of the important precursors and exceeded expectations at the BAFTAs. It's probably in....unless voters don't have a sense of humor (which is possible).
That leaves Italy's slow-moving village drama "Vermiglio" and Iceland's beautiful time-jumping romance "Touch" fighting (with three other films) for that final slot. "Touch", which tells the beautiful love story of a dying Icelandic man travelling the world amidst worsening COVID restrictions in an effort to meet his long-lost love. Co-star Masahiro Motoki helped Japan to a surprise Oscar nomination and even bigger surprise win for "Departures" and "Touch" will come close. But nobody seems to love the film quite as much as I do, so Italy has the clear advantage thanks to its European Film Award and Golden Globe nods. "Vermiglio" is a good film with some interesting twists and turns though it wouldn't be one of my Top 5.
DARK HORSES:
7. DENMARK, “The Girl with the Needle”
8. LATVIA,
“Flow”
9. THAILAND,
“How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies”
These three dark horses are in a virtually tie for sixth place. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of them announced on Oscar morning...and that would be a first for both Latvia and Thailand....so I'd be thrilled to see that happen.
DENMARK is on the shortlist for the fifth year in a row (is that a record?) and "The Girl with the Needle" has been nominated almost everywhere alongside the three leaders. But after watching this weird Black and White horror-drama, I felt pretty sure this would miss an Oscar nomination. It just didn't seem good enough or "Oscary" enough to make it....but statistically, it should get that final slot.
LATVIA's "Flow" or, as the director called it, "our little cat movie", has been steadily moving up the rankings since its U.S. release. Initially, most people said it was a strong dark horse for the International Feature shortlist...but that it could never get nominated because voters would feel an Animated Feature nod would be sufficient to reward it. That is still probably true....but voters and critics have been discovering and falling in love with "Flow" in big numbers since its domestic release in the USA, and especially since its Golden Globe win over "Wild Robot" in January. It could benefit from the one-week delay in Oscar voting....but will probably just miss out.
THAILAND's heart-tugging soap opera "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" is about a slacker young man who moves in with his cancer-stricken grandmother in an effort to worm his way into her will. It's a sweet movie and I recommend you watch it. But Oscar has never gone for one of these sentimental Asian soap operas before. It's all very predictable....but it has some passionate fans and it would mean so much for Thai cinema....Unlikely but possible.
PRAYING FOR A MIRACLE:
10. PALESTINE,
“From Ground Zero”
11. CANADA,
“Universal Language”
12. CZECH
REPUBLIC, “Waves”
PALESTINE's stirring omnibus of 22 short films- "From Ground Zero"- is the only film that made the shortlist without the support of a sizeable international studio. Put together by senior Gazan filmmaker Rashid Masharawi from his current home base in Europe, "From Ground Zero" was somehow filmed by 22 amateur and independent Palestinian directors in Gaza in 2023 amidst bombings, electricity shortages and general violence and chaos. The films tell the stories (some fictional, some documentary-style) of ordinary people, of men and women and children and of Gaza itself. As such, much of the film is experimental and subject to filming conditions most directors could never dream of. One of the 22 films was left unfinished. While the film is unable to advance to the Top 5, it's appearance on the shortlist is nothing short of a miracle.
I don't have too much to say about "Waves" from CZECH REPUBLIC, but its a solid historical drama based on the true story of Czechoslovakian journalists (many of whom were Communists themselves) trying to report on the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring. I felt this was a story best appreciated by the Czechs themselves and not really by international audiences. But critics love the film and in the 1980s this probably would have been a surefire nominee. Many Oscar prognosticators named this as the biggest surprise on the shortlist....so I just think it lacks the buzz and profile to make it to the next round.
As for CANADA, the trailer for weird Persian-language comedy "Universal Language", set in an alternate universe (and Persian-speaking) Manitoba, looks charming. But its distributor is sitting on the film's release until next month so I haven't seen it. While it initially had a lot of buzz, this has faded and the film has oft been compared to Roy Andersson...one of my least-favorite international directors and one that Oscar has snubbed repeatedly.
NO CHANCE:
13. NORWAY,
“Armand”
14. UNITED
KINGDOM, “Santosh”
15. SENEGAL,
“Dahomey”
"Santosh" is a very good film! It deserves its slightly surprising spot on the shortlist. But this mystery--drama about misogyny and corruption in rural India has the least buzz of the 15 films on the list...and that matters a lot now. But it is interesting how "Santosh" managed to get Hindi-language cinema on the shortlist representing the
UNITED KINGDOM, just emphasizing once again how stupid the Film Federation of India is for selecting "Laapataa Ladies" over potential winner "All We Imagine As Light".
I haven't managed to see "Armand" from NORWAY....but it seems extremely divisive. I hear quite a few people say they love it....and even more who say they hate it. Of the four films I haven't seen ("Armand" plus "Sacred Fig", "Universal Language" and "I'm Still Here") it's the one I'm most curious to see.
Finally, we have "Dahomey" from SENEGAL....Now, a documentary is not a good film just because it is about an important subject, or features interesting people. For a spare 70 minutes, French-Senegalese director Mati Diop films (1)- moving men packing up priceless African artifacts, (2)- a group of exceptionally articulate Beninois students debating art, colonialism, language and life in general, and (3)- a blank screen with a grating auto-tuned voiceover. I would love to have dinner with these students....but Berlin Golden Bear notwithstanding, you can't convince me that "Dahomey" is a good film or a good documentary. I don't think it will be nominated for either.
I also managed to see all 15 of the shortlisted Animated Short finalists this year.....I only thought two were really Oscar-worthy.
My predictions:
1. Wander to Wonder (my #2)
2. Yuck!
3. ME
4. A Crab in the Pool
5. A Bear Named Wojtek
6. Beautiful Men
7. Maybe Elephants
8. In the Shadow of the Cypress
9. Au Revoir, Mon Monde (my personal favorite, and my winner)
10. Origami
11. The 21
12. Bottle George
13. Magic Candies
14. Wild-Tempered Clavier
15. Percebes
