BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- WESTERN EUROPE PREDICTIONS (22 countries)

And finally, here are the countries of Western Europe. These countries dominate this category. In the past four years, they got seven (2022), eight (2023, 2024) or nine (2021) of the 15 spots on the shortlist, and three (2021, 2022, 2024) or four (2023) of the five nominations. Of the 17 "established" countries in Western Europe, 12 managed to get shortlisted at least twice in the past four years including relatively tiny Iceland and Ireland. Only three- Greece, Netherlands and Portugal - have failed to advance in the past ten years. Denmark has been on the list five years in a row. 

Does Western Europe make the best films? No, not usually. But they do have lobbying power and connections that most films from developing countries don't have, and they (mostly) have a good understanding of the films that AMPAS will like, and don't submit....well...."Laapataa Ladies".

Last year, I  saw all 18 submissions (except the one from Spain) and they really did send the best films .....I loved "Touch", "Kneecap" and "Memory Lane" and was sorry to see them fail to be nominated (two were shortlisted). The worst film  -as usual- was the messy travelogue from Portugal.

I predicted 8 out of 18 correctly....although part of that was due to help with shortlists (which I only used this year for Germany). 

Here are my predictions for Western Europe, where we could theoretically see a Faroe Islands debut.

  AUSTRIA- “The Village Next to Paradise” UPDATE: Austria selected "Peacock"....but I wrote this before they decided......So, let’s look at this mathematically. Nine of the past ten Austrian submissions premiered at Class-A festivals (three in Cannes, three in Venice, two in Berlin and one at Locarno). And six of the past ten winners of Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards went to the Oscars. So, the frontrunner is clearly Somali-language family drama “The Village Next to Paradise” which competed at Cannes Un Certain Regard in 2024 and won Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards in 2025. Austria usually has no hang-ups about a “foreign film” representing them at the Oscars so I think this is the one. But I count six other Austrian majority films that premiered at major festivals this year (“How to Be Normal and the Oddness of the Other World”, “Moon”, “Mother’s Baby”, “Peacock”, “White Snail” and “The Witness”). Of these, feminist Persian thriller “The Witness” (co-written by Jafar Panahi) is the most likely challenger to "The Village"….though comedy “Peacock” is the most likely option actually made in Austria. Austria likes horror but “Mother’s Baby” (starring Claes Bang) is set to premiere in October and “White Snail” has no release date. For me, it really looks like "Village” will get this.  

  BELGIUM- “Young Mother’s Home” (Jeunes mères) Belgium is reportedly trying a new format this year. The Flemish (Dutch-speaking) and Walloon (French-speaking) film bodies will each choose two films made by their filmmakers (which doesn’t necessarily mean they are in that language…In 2019, they picked a Spanish-language film from the “French side”) and then a joint selection committee will choose from among those four finalists. The Belgian Academy loves Cannes. They’ve picked Cannes premieres seven of the past ten years and all three of their recent shortlisted films (“Brand New Testament”, “Playground” and “Close”) were Cannes premieres. The Brothers Dardenne have been picked four times – more than any other Belgian directors – and after winning Best Screenplay and the Ecumenical Jury Prize at Cannes 2025 for “Young Mothers’s Home”, this year will probably make it five. I hated “Le fils” and “L’enfant” but I absolutely loved “Deux jours, une nuit”….So I’m on the fence about this French-language drama about a home for unwed teenaged mothers. From the Flemish side, the main contender is critically acclaimed LGBT coming-of-age drama “Young Hearts” (Berlinale 2024) which could challenge the Dardennes who’ve had so many chances in this category (in addition to the three they directed, at least four films they co-produced have been submitted) with zero success. “Young Hearts” is very good and already has an Amazon deal. There’s a lot of competition for that second “French” spot on the Belgian shortlist. It could easily be any one of three other Cannes debuts: “Wild Foxes” (Director’s Fortnight), a teen boxing drama, “Adam’s Sake” (Critics Week), about a mother trying to keep custody of her child (director Laura Wandel got a surprise shortlist spot for “Playground”) and “Kika” (Critics Week), a quirky dramedy about a pregnant woman dealing with the death of her life partner. I think “Adam’s Sake” will get it, though I’m hoping for “Kika”. As for the second Flemish spot?  They don’t have much so I’ll predict the upcoming lesbian drama “Julian”, set to debut in Toronto.

 CYPRUS- “Smaragda – I Got Thick Skin and I Can’t Jump” Cyprus is the only EU country that has never entered the Oscars and every year I expect we'll see them debut. Apparently, it has been discussed with the Ministry of Culture but the Ministry has never formed a committee. This year, Cyprus premiered a quirky Greek-language comedy-drama about an aging Cypriot woman seeking meaning in the second half of her life. Submitting "Smaragda" to the Oscars would be a great way to get Cypriot cinema seen on the larger world stage. 

  DENMARK- “The Last Viking” Since 2010, Denmark (pop: 6 million) has made the Oscar shortlist 12 out of 15 times….more than any other country, including much larger competitors like Germany (10), France (7), Poland (5), Italy and Spain (4 each)….(and a 13^th film, “Queen of Hearts”, probably came VERY close). Denmark not only makes great films; they also understand Oscar voters and they want to be nominated each and every year. This year, Denmark has had a weak year by their high standards (though still better than most countries). Each year, they announce a three-film shortlist and this year I predicted that would be drama "Home Sweet Home" (Berlin Panorama), comedy "The Last Viking" (Toronto), and thriller "Second Victims", with LGBT drama "Sauna" (Sundance) as my alternate. Last year, in the hunt for that Oscar, they gave a qualifying release to “The Girl with the Needle” to make sure they made the Final Five…and they did (they didn’t deserve it, but they did). So, I correctly predicted they would do a qualifying release for Mads Mikkelsen’s new comedy-drama “The Last Viking” (apparently in Finland! which under the new rules is fine....) , which is clearly trying to channel the energy of “Another Round". "Last Viking" did make the Danish shortlist announced on August 21 but I got the other two wrong. Instead Denmark selected Russian-language documentary "Mr. Nobody Against Putin", which was filmed in secret over the course of two years, and "Beginnings" (Berlin), a drama about divorce starring Trine Dyrholm. "Beginnings" also got a qualifying release (this time in Spain)....and those make things so much more difficult to predict. I think it was probably including to have a female director on the shortlist. While "Putin" has some pretty great reviews, "The Last Viking" is the clear favorite and with “Home Sweet Home” already out of the running, "Viking" is my prediction. Director Anders Thomas Jensen already has three Oscar nominations (including one win) in the Short Film Oscar category and he also wrote the Oscar-winning “In a Better World”. The film is about a bank robber released from prison and his mentally ill brother (Mikkelsen) desperately searching for a hidden stash of money. 

  FAROE ISLANDS- "The Last Paradise on Earth" Before someone tells me that the "Faroe Islands" isn't a country, please note that it has the same political status as Greenland which was recognized by AMPAS in 2010, and it has its own language, flag, sports teams and money. The islands have also started making TV shows ("Trom" was exported overseas) and films. However, it's true that the Faroese are often required to represent Denmark. Faroese athletes compete for Denmark in the Olympics and most World Championships (they won a bronze medal for Denmark in the Swimming World Championships), Denmark has sent Faroese singers to represent Denmark at Eurovision two of the past three years (!), and Denmark sent a movie about the Faroe Islands to the Oscars in 1997. But this year, the Nordic Council Film Prize allowed the Faroe Islands to compete as an independent country with the film "The Last Paradise on Earth" and I suspect they may use this to try and get themselves into the Oscars. The Nordic Council Film Prize was traditionally open to the five independent Nordic nations (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) but opened up to Greenland in 2023 and the Faroe Islands in 2025. "The Last Paradise on Earth" won't win an Oscar but it would be an excellent debut submission from the wind-swept islands with someone of the most beautiful landscapes on Earth. It's about young people on the islands facing the age-old question of whether to stay at home in a small town or seek out new opportunities in a globalized world.  

  FINLAND- “Never Alone” Klaus Härö has been picked to represent Finland four times and is one of only three Finnish directors EVER to make it to the Oscar shortlist. His new movie is a period drama about Finnish Jews during the Holocaust which practically screams "OSCAR". So that seems likely to be their submission in a relatively weak year. I’d much prefer they send “100 Liters of Gold” (Tallinn Black Nights), a very well-reviewed local comedy about two middle-aged sisters in the countryside trying to save a rural wedding with the world's worst hangovers….but it won’t be able to beat Härö. Millennial dramedy “Apple Thieves”, rural island melodrama “Orenda” (by a twice-selected director) and edgy comedy-drama “A Light That Never Goes Out” (Cannes ACID) round out the Top Five, but likely won’t come into play.

  FRANCE- "Souleymane's Story" (L'histoire de Souleymane) Poor France. Though they arguably have Europe's strongest cinema, they haven't won the Oscar since "Indochine" over thirty years ago. I think that's shocking...and France does too. Last year, they picked the Spanish-language "Emilia Perez" because they were sure it would be their chance to win. I actually liked the batshit crazy "Emilia Perez" more than "I'm Still Here"....but I thought "I'm Still Here" was a better film and it's the film I would have voted for. France is scheduled to announce its shortlist soon and I would say that the race for France is wide-open. I keep hearing people mention six films as possibilities - "Alpha", "Case 137", "It Was Just An Accident", "Nouvelle Vague", "A Private Life" and "The Stranger". 

Let's start with the two highest-profile films-  Jafar Panahi's Cannes Palme d'Or winner "It Was Just An Accident" and Richard Linklater's "Nouvelle Vague" (Cannes & Netflix). First, there is a major question mark about whether the two Cannes films are eligible since their directors are not French and do not reside in France. "Nouvelle Vague", about the youth of avant-garde filmmaker Jean-Luc Godard, appears to absolutely be a majority French production. Contrary to what I've seen some people saying online, yes, films with U.S. directors may be eligible. For example, "How to Win At Checkers" was accepted to represent Thailand in 2015 even though it was directed by U.S. director Josh Kim. "It Was Just An Accident" is a wholly Iranian film...but the main production company, the producers, and some of the post-production crew are French. AMPAS often shows sympathy for films that could not be sent by their home country for political reasons. It's not REALLY eligible but I think they would allow it. I think AMPAS would accept both. Will France send them? No, I don't think so. "Emilia Perez" may have taken place in Mexico and been filmed in Spanish but Jacques Audiard is a beloved French director. Deniz Gamze Ergüven ("Mustang") was also raised in France. Even if "Nouvelle Vague" and "Accident" are eligible, I don't think France wants to end their 30-year Oscar drought with a film by a foreign filmmaker. The optics are bad. 

What about the others? Julia DuCourneau's "Alpha" has poisonous reviews and DuCourneau didn't get an Oscar nomination for the buzzier "Titane".....I'm not sure how it's still in the conversation. And "Case 137", a thriller about police brutality, looks good but doesn't have the kind of reviews that will convince France it has a chance at an Oscar. 

"A Private Life" (Vie Privée) stars Jodie Foster, Daniel Auteuil and Mathieu Amalric, and looks like "Anatomy of a Fall". It's about a psychiatrist who believes her former patient has been murdered. Reviews also don't look good enough for a win, but the starpower alone will certainly make this a strong possibility. Ditto Francois Ozon's "The Stranger", based on a classic French novel. Those who supported "Count of Monte Cristo" last year could fight for the idea of trying a French classic. Both of these would require qualifying releases...but France has done those before without an issue. 

But I'm going out on a limb and predicting France sends "Souleymane's Story", a drama starring non-professional actors about 48 hours in the life of a Guinean asylum seeker in Paris. It premiered at Cannes 2024 (festival play...check)....has rapturous reviews (4.1 on Letterboxd vice 3.2 for "Private Life" and "Alpha", 3.5 for "Case 136", and 3.7 for "Nouvelle Vague) and has gotten a U.S. release. France almost always goes for a BIG film....but that hasn't worked. Maybe they should just go with a good one. I think it will be the surprise pick. 

The French shortlist consists of between 3-5 films....if it's three, except "Vie Privee" and "The Stranger" to join "Souleymane". If it's four, then add "It Was Just An Accident", and if it's five, lesbian drama "La petite derniere" (The Little Sister). Alternates: "Case 137", "A Magnificent Life" and "Nouvelle Vague".  

 GERMANY- “The Tiger" UPDATE: Germany picked "Sound of Falling", so I got this one wrong. I wrote this prior to Germany's announcement. Each year German Films announces a “shortlist” of finalists to represent Germany at the Oscars….but it isn’t a list of films that Germany judged to be “the best of the year”. It’s actually a list of films whose producers have submitted themselves for consideration. This year there were only five films submitted…that’s the smallest number since Germany began announcing its list in 2010. Last year there were 13 and the year before there were 12. Four of the five deal with WWII (ugh…not again...).  The finalists are (1)- “Amrum” (Cannes), a coming-of-age drama directed by Fatih Akin and starring Diane Kruger, about a boy growing up on a remote German island in the final days of WWII, (2)- “John Cranko”, a biopic about a gay choreographer that competed at last year’s national Lola Awards, but failed to get nominated in any of the Big Three categories, (3)- “Riefenstahl” (Venice 2024), a documentary about the famous Nazi filmmaker, (4)- “Sound of Falling” (Cannes), a time-jumping drama about several generations of women living on the same remote farm and (5)- “Der Tiger”, an “anti-war” war movie set in 1943 that has the backing of Amazon Prime and will available for streaming after an Oscar qualifying run in Germany.  Classy “Sound of Falling” is considered the favorite….but the backing of Amazon and Germany’s recent win for “All Quiet on the Western Front” makes me think that “Der Tiger” – made by a well-known commercial director trying to make an artistic film for the first time- will be picked instead. “Sound of Falling” will come a very, very, very close second, with “Amrum” a distant third, “Riefenstahl” in fourth and “John Cranko” way behind. 

  GREECE- “Arcadia” Greece had an internal controversy last year when their Film Academy and their Ministry of Culture had a public spat over who gets to select the Greek submission. Officially, it’s the Ministry.....and when the Ministry changed the members of its selection committee midway through the selection process all except one of the Greek contenders withdrew in protest . The eventual Greek nominee, “Murderess”, was the film that was expected to be picked all along but the Ministry made the process look corrupt….Hopefully Greece has gotten their act together but it’s possible we could see another partial boycott. The favorite this year is “Arcadia”, a surreal Lanthimos-esque mystery that AMPAS will probably hate. It won the three top awards at the Greek Oscars after its Berlin premiere and won the FIPRESCI Prize at Thessaloniki. So, apparently the Greeks really like it. The two other leading contenders are box-office hit music biopic “Stelios” and adoption drama “Kyuka”, about adopted twins who unexpectedly meet their birth mother  while on a vacation. Greece sent the winner of the Hellenic Film Awards to the Oscars 2021-2023 and the 2024 winner, “Animal” boycotted the process. So, 2025 winner “Arcadia” is the favorite....but a big part of me thinks it could still go to “Stelios” which just got a U.S. distribution deal.

  GREENLAND- “Walls” Greenland (pop: 55,000) hasn’t sent a film since 2012 but they started sending films for the Nordic Council Prize in 2023. With such a small population, it was likely difficult for them to meet the 7-day screening requirements until the rule change that they can qualify via screenings in another country (e.g. Denmark). If they return this year, it’s likely to be “Walls” (Akinni Inuk), a documentary about a Greenlandic woman in prison, which is their candidate for the 2025 Nordic Council Prize. “The Incredible Snow Woman” (Berlinale Panorama) was made in Greenland but it’s a wholly French production with a French director and crew so it won’t be eligible.

  ICELAND- “The Love That Remains” Iceland has an easy decision this year as Hlynur Palmason’s “The Love That Remains” (Cannes) has gotten great reviews. I don’t like Hlynur Palmason’s films but he made the shortlist for “Godland” two years ago so obviously there are many who disagree. Tiny Iceland has made the shortlist three of the past five years, one of the best records in the Nordics.....- Denmark managed all five, Iceland and Norway: 3, Finland: 2, Sweden: 1 -  and deserved to win last year for the wonderfully moving “Touch”. “The Love That Remains” is about a year in the life of a family going through a separation. It shouldn’t have any problem beating the other main contender, “Aftergames”.

  IRELAND- “Blue Fiddle”. UPDATE: Ireland picked a documentary I'd never heard of - "Sanitorium" - which is in Ukrainian. It may be a very good film but it's a shame because this was probably the most prolific year for Irish-language cinema. This was written before Ireland's announcement. Ireland has sent seven Irish-language films to the Oscars (out of 11 total), and two made the shortlist twice, including the Oscar-nominated “The Quiet Girl”. It used to be that Ireland would only make an Irish-language feature every couple of years. That has completely changed and there are half a dozen Irish-language features on the film festival circuit this year, including two folk horror films (“Frewaka” and “The Ghost”), a village murder mystery (“Bait”), an all-female heist thriller (“Aontas”), a family drama (“Blue Fiddle”) plus wacky comedy “Froggie”. Congratulations to Irish cinema! Of these, “Blue Fiddle”, an old-fashioned tearjerker about a young girl who believes that she can cure her comatose father with her music, seems most likely. After all, they got to the shortlist with the edgy, awesome “Kneecap” but they got to the Oscars with the more sentimental “Quiet Girl”. I saw the creepy “Frewaka”, about a caregiver living with an old woman in a haunted house, and it just got an Amazon/Shudder release. That helps get a film seen so that may be the one. And “Aontas”, a heist thriller about three women robbers….but told backwards.....premiered at the Galway Film Festival last month.

 

  ITALY- "La grazia" ???? TBD I'm going to have wait on Italy until after Venice.....

  LUXEMBOURG- “Breathing Underwater” (Hors d'haleine) Last year, Luxembourg announced they didn’t have any eligible films. They’ll almost certainly be back this year, probably with domestic violence drama “Breathing Underwater”. The film, about a pregnant woman with a seemingly perfect life who ends up in a shelter for battered women, looks like quite a good choice and is largely in the country’s national language. German-language road movie “Mariana’s Trench”, about an old man and a suicidal young hitchhiker and Luxembourgish-language documentary “Terre Rouge” are also possible. Some people think Luxembourg should try to send “It Was Just An Accident”, Jafar Panahi’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning film that was co-produced by a Luxembourgian production company….This worked for “Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “Tel Aviv on Fire”…but I don’t think “It Was Just An Accident” has enough Luxembourg-based crew....just a couple of producers.

  MALTA- “Ciao Ciao” Tiny Malta tries to send a film to the Oscars any time they have something good to send. This year that will surely be “Ciao Ciao”, about four friends who get together for a dinner reunion where secrets are revealed and chaos ensues. Sounds like “Cuarencena” (the 2023 Dominican submission) and it’s one of the films on this page that I most want to find this year.

  NETHERLANDS- “Our Girls” Last year, the Netherlands sent a lovely, funny, heartbreaking film called "Memory Lane”. It deserved to make the shortlist….but it had no buzz and probably wasn’t seen by any voters that were not assigned to see it. Sad. From 1986-2003, the Netherlands was an Oscar superpower…earning five nominations, including two wins. But they haven’t been nominated since then. The Netherlands usually sends a late release and I’m strangely confident they will send “Our Girls" which has been announced as the opening film of the Netherlands Film Festival in September. Director Mike van Diem won the Foreign Film Oscar for “Character” way, way back in 1998. In the past 27 years, he’s made only two more movies…but this year he will premiere #3 - “Our Girls”, a baity drama about two families who are also best friends. When their two daughters are in a terrible accident, doctors tell them that only one girl can be saved. I was pretty sure this would be their submission even before I saw their eight-film shortlist, and that the runner-ups would be B+W comedy-drama "Three Days of Fish" (Karlovy Vary) and West Papua documentary "The Promise". "Fish" is on the shortlist..."Promise" isn't. 

Here are the eight eligible films: 

Top Tier:    Our Girls (#1), Three Days of Fish (#2)

Second Tier: father-son drama Alpha (#3), documentary The Propagandist (#4)

Third Tier: youth tearjerker "Live for Me" (#6), Cannes murder mystery "Reedland" (#5)

Bottom Tier: action-comedy "Fabula" (#7), anti-capitalist documentary "The System" (#8)

 

  NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” Norway has two of the best-reviewed foreign films of the year and will have a very difficult decision to make. “Dreams (Sex Love)” is the final (and reportedly best) in a well-regarded trilogy about….well….dreams, sex and love, and it won the Golden Bear at Berlin. “Sentimental Value”, starring Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård, is a comedy-drama about family and art that won the Grand Prix (2^nd place) at Cannes. Both of these would be surefire Oscar nominees this year and Norway is surely cursing the “one-film-per-country” rule. I think it will be “Sentimental Value” which seems to be more accessible and have slightly better reviews, with a cast of recognizable international stars that Oscar voters like, and a premise that seems to match previous Norwegian nominees like “Worst Person in the World” (which has the same director and star). But its director Joachim Trier has been picked twice in the past eight years while Dag Johan Haugerud has been shortlisted but never selected three times since 2012. The egalitarian Norwegians may want to honor his work. I predicted both would make Norway's three-film shortlist.....and of course they did. But Norway had an amazing film year and there was fierce competition for that third spot. I assumed that honor would go either to atmospheric fairy tale “The Ugly Stepsister” (Sundance) which is already available in the U.S., or “Loveable”, a drama about divorce that premiered at Karlovy Vary 2024....or perhaps Oscar nominee Petter Naess ("Elling")'s new comedy “Ingen Kommentar”. In the end, Norway chose political documentary "Facing War", which was a bit of an odd choice. But this is very clearly a battle between Cannes and Berlin. 

  

  PORTUGAL- “I Only Rest in the Storm”  Dreaming of Lions Since 2019, Portugal has announced a shortlist of four to six films before announcing their Oscar candidate. This year, I predicted their shortlist would include "Banzo", "Dreaming of Lions" and "Hanami" (I got them right!) plus "I Only Rest in the Storm" and "The Seasons" (I got them wrong....but it looks like they will both be eligible next year), with "The Luminous Life" as my alternate. I expected "I Only Rest in the Storm" would be the Portuguese candidate. 

Portugal replaced the two I got wrong with two dramas that weren't on my radar- "The Englishman's Papers" and "Sobrevivientes", whose director just passed away. The Portuguese shortlist is very heavily focused on Portugal's colonial legacy in Africa and three take place in former Portuguese colonies - "Banzo" in Sao Tome & Principe, "Englishman's Papers" in Angola, and "Hanami" in Cabo Verde (plus "I Only Rest in the Storm" took place in Guinea-Bissau). 

For several years, Portugal has held the record for the most Oscar submissions without ever being shortlisted or nominated….and that probably won’t change this year. The Portuguese Academy usually likes their films darkly lit with dramatic voiceovers and without any sense of humor, and that doesn't play well with AMPAS. ("Alma Viva" was an exception.....charming!) But I would lovely to see them choose “Dreaming of Lions”, a dark comedy about euthanasia, not only because it has the best reviews but because it's a comedy. It's also the only one of the five films that actually takes place in Portugal. In the end, it's a tight race and I think any of these five could be selected except "Englishman's Papers". 

Let's be optimistic. I'm predicting "Dreaming of Lions" (Tallinn Black Nights) because of its strong reviews, with dreamy Cabo Verdean coming-of-age drama "Hanami" (Locarno) in second place (it was also shortlisted by Switzerland), and "Banzo" (Karlovy Vary), set amidst an epidemic on a Portuguese colonial plantation, a very close third. "Sobrevivientes", a survival drama about race relations after a shipwreck, could get a sentimental vote to honor its late director.  

  SPAIN- “The Captive” (El cautivo) Spain has had a very good year and it's going to be extremely competitive just to make Spain’s three-film shortlist. The Spanish Academy – more than any of the other big countries – has a few favorite directors. In the past ten years, three directors (Pedro Almodovar, Carla Simon and the duo of Jon Garano & Jose Maria Goenaga) have all been picked twice (so…six of out of ten )….and Almodovar & Garano/Goenaga were also on the Spanish shortlist for other films during that 10-year time period. Two of the other four (Fernando Leon de Aranoa & Juan Antonio Bayona) were picked by Spain in the past. 

This year, Simon (“Romeria”) and Garano/Goenaga (“Maspalomas”) are back in the race as is Oscar winner Alejandro Amenabar (“The Captive”). We also have the two most critically acclaimed Spanish films of the year from festivals – “Deaf” (Berlin) and “Sirat” (Cannes), plus one of last year’s two Best Picture winners at the Goya Awards (“Undercover”)….there was a tie. There has been an unofficial list floating around online of the 23 registered films and all except "Undercover" are on it. Spain has plenty of other films, but these appear to be the five frontrunners. From this unofficial list, terrorism drama "She Walks in Darkness" and bullfighting docudrama "Afternoons of Solitude" could sneak onto the list. 

So, who will it be? Carla Simon & Garano/Goenaga both failed to get Spain to the shortlist all four times (the other previously submitted directors all at least got to the shortlist). I hate Carla Simon’s films so this is not surprising...and although the LGBT dramedy "Maspalomas" looks fantastic, it has less buzz than all the others. So, I predict the shortlist will be Amenabar’s period costume drama “The Captive”, and the two festival favorites “Deaf” (Sorda) and “Sirat”. “The Captive” a 16^th century prison thriller, will premiere at San Sebastian and is only Amenabar’s second Spanish-language film in 20 years, since his Oscar win for “The Sea Inside”. (The other, “While At War”, was shortlisted by Spain but rightfully lost to Almodovar’s “Pain & Glory”). The uplifiting “Deaf”, about a deaf mother with a newborn, has beautiful reviews. “Sirat” won 3^rd place (Jury Prize) at Cannes for its weird, unconventional, drug-fueled mystery set at a desert rave. I’m hearing that “Sirat” is the favorite…but Spain’s habits will push them towards the more established Amenabar….especially since “The Captive” is probably a more “Oscar-friendly” choice. But all three of these are very, very possible. 

  SWEDEN- “Eagles of the Republic” Sweden made a huge mistake last year when they picked a cute little documentary (“Last Journey”) over Levan Akin’s masterpiece “Crossing”. Since 2019, Sweden has always announced a three-film shortlist and this year is pretty weak. Before their announcement, I predicted their shortlist would be Arabic-language political thriller  “Eagles of the Republic” (Cannes), and family dramas - “Kevlar Soul” and “Let Go” (Netflix), with road trip comedy “Live A Little” as my alternate prediction. Swedish-born Tarik Saleh got Sweden a surprise shortlist spot for “Boy From Heaven" (aka Cairo Conspiracy) and “Eagles” also played in competition at Cannes. It’s about a popular actor forced to star in a pro-government film by an unpopular military regime. Fares Fares stars in both. That was my final prediction. In the end, Sweden shortlisted "Eagles" but ignored the other two, replacing them with Middle East documentary "Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989" and romantic comedy "The Dance Club". "Eagles" is still the favorite...but "Dance Club" changed its release date to be eligible this year and was helmed by a respected female director who has never been picked before...and Sweden has only picked a film directed by a woman once in the past decade. If it's good, "Dance Club" could easily win this. But since nobody has seen it, I'm still predicting "Eagles". 

  SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift” Switzerland doesn’t have a clear pattern when they pick their Oscar candidates. They sometimes send films from major festivals (though they don’t have too many) but sometimes films that had just small local releases, including comedies and documentaries, and films made by dual nationals that have little to do with Switzerland (last year’s excellent submission was really from Peru). Before Switzerland announced their three-film shortlist in early August, I felt they had three really strong choices: "Frieda's Fall", "Late Shift" and "Sauvages", with "Late Shift" looking very much the strongest. I was shocked when "Frieda's Fall", a period drama about a mother accused of her killing her 5-year old child, and "Sauvages" (Cannes 2024), an animated film by the director of "My Life as a Zucchini", the last Swiss film to be shortlisted, didn't make the cut. So, it was quite obvious Switzerland would choose hospital thriller "Late Shift" (Berlin). Reviews are really good, it has a Netflix deal, and director Petra Volpe was picked for a lesser film in 2017. The other two films on the Swiss shortlist were Cape Verdean drama "Hanami" (also shortlisted for Portugal!) and "The Safe House" (La cache), a family comedy. They made the right choice. 

  UNITED KINGDOM- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” Last year, many people were predicting “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” to be a potential nominee for the UK after it won Best Director at Cannes Un Certain Regard. It finally got released in Britain in December 2024 making it eligible this year. This Zambian comedy-drama is a strong contender and will surely be selected. If there is a shock decision, they could consider “Exodus”, a political drama in Turkish, or “Tanau’r Lloer”, a family drama in Welsh. The UK has picked several films in these two languages before.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- ASIA-PACIFIC PREDICTIONS (30 countries)

Here are my predictions for the countries in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Last year, 20 of these 30 countries sent films but I thought it was a fairly weak group....Mongolia's "If Only I Could Hibernate" was probably the best one.....and it would be on the bubble to make my 15-film shortlist...

This year, we could see the first-ever submission from Papua New Guinea, which announced the formation of an Oscar committee earlier this summer. 

  AFGHANISTAN- “Sima’s Song” Sadly, the arts are no longer a priority in Afghanistan, which continues to struggle under medieval Taliban rule. Having said that, Afghan filmmakers continue to make movies and I hope that they will return to the competition soon, after sending some wonderfully original and thought-provoking films from 2003-2019. Roya Sadat is Afghanistan’s best-known female film director and she represented the country at the Oscars in 2017. "Sima's Song" (Tokyo), shot in Greece but set in Afghanistan is a new drama about two young female students living in Kabul in 1978…when the country was at its most modern. It certainly should be eligible somehow even though Sadat is now reportedly based in Seattle. There’s also “Writing Hawa”, a documentary about a budding female entrepreneur, and her life before and after the 2021 Taliban takeover. It has won a number of awards, and also has a female Afghan director who is currently living in exile.

 AUSTRALIA- “The Wolves Always Come at Night” Between 2012-2023, Screen Australia managed to find a Foreign Language candidate to represent English-speaking Australia every year except once during the 2020 pandemic. These films were in a diverse range of European, Middle Eastern, Asian, Indigenous Australian and Pacific languages. I saw them all and they were mostly very, good. Last year, the Aussies failed to find a suitable candidate but this year they’ll probably send “The Wolves Always Come at Night” (Toronto), a Mongolian docudrama (looks like the same style as “Weeping Camel”) about a nomadic couple forced to leave the countryside and move to the Mongolian capital due to the effects of climate change.

 BANGLADESH- “Saba” This year, Bangladesh has one acclaimed movie that played at both Toronto and Busan - “Saba” about a devoted daughter taking care of her severely disabled mother for 25 years of her life. The daughter has to deal with the painfully difficult (but quite universal) issues surrounding end-of-life care for her mother. This is undoubtedly the best-reviewed Bangladeshi film of the year, though I don’t think it’s been released in Bangladesh yet. Mostofa Sarwar Farooki, the only Bangladeshi director who has been picked three times, has a new movie....namely, three-hour satire “840”....but reviews have been very mixed. So "Saba"’s main competition will be “A Tale of Two Sisters”, a film about two sisters trying to make ends meet during Bangladesh’s brutal war of independence in 1971. Bangladesh had two other films at major film festivals - ”Beyond the Mast” (Moscow), a melodrama about tensions among sailors aboard a small ship, and “Shikolbaha” (Silence of the Seashell) (Shanghai), a village drama about woman with an unexpected pregnancy. Less likely: action thriller “Borbaad”, the biggest box-office hit of 2025, family drama “Vhoyal” and thriller “NeelChokro”

  BHUTAN- “I, The Song” Bhutan has sent three films since 1999 and will probably send their fourth, “I, the Song”, this year. The film premiered at a major festival (Tallinn Black Nights) and later won Best Picture at the Bhutan Film Awards. It’s a Hitchcockian thriller about a schoolteacher shocked by the existence of a viral video of a woman who looks exactly like her, doing pornographic things. The film begins to destroy her life. It’s definitely in.

 CAMBODIA- “Mannequin Wedding” This year, most of Cambodia's films have been ghostly horror films. Some of these are supposed to be fairly entertaining but Cambodia typically sends more serious fare to the Oscars. In the past ten years, they’ve sent nine films....six were serious dramas and documentaries that premiered at major international film festivals. The other three were modest but earnestly made local melodramas. No horror movies. But Cambodia doesn't have much to choose from so I’m predicting they send “Mannequin Wedding”, a hybrid horror film-slash-documentary about a 2021 nightclub fire. It’s reportedly the highest-grossing Cambodian film of all time. If that’s not serious enough, they could send rural documentary “Until the Orchid Blooms”....or nothing at all. Dark horse: "Becoming Human" (by the same director as "Orchid") looks wonderful. It's a supernatural drama about a ghost watching over an old cinema scheduled for demolition. It will almost certainly represent Cambodia at the Oscars next year. But maybe they will rush it into cinemas to qualify this year so they'll have something to send? I still think it's their 2026 submission. 

 CHINA- “Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants” China produces many beautiful films….but the Chinese Academy hasn’t sent one to the Oscars in years. In the past ten years, they’ve sent four nationalist films of diverse genres (sports, sci-fi, action, and documentary), two historical films by famous directors, two mainstream comedies, a blockbuster kiddie anime film, and an odd Buddhist drama. Eight were fairly big box-office hits; only “Xuanyang” (the Buddhist one) was a failure.  So "success" is important to the Chinese Academy. So far, this year’s two big box-office successes were “Ne Zha 2”, a 2 ½ hour sequel to their 2019 cartoon submission and by far the highest-grossing Chinese film of all time; and “Detective Chinatown 2000”, a comedy sequel starring Chow Yun-fat. Neither of these would be a smart pick, but you really never know with China. Most people are predicting they will send “Ne Zha 2” and this anime sequel actually has surprisingly good reviews….but I think they’ll give another director a chance. In the past, China used to send every Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige film (from 2004-2012, they were sent six times) but they don’t do that anymore. Since 2012, no director has been sent more than once. This could help famous directors like Feng Xiaogang (he’s been picked twice but not since 2013) for women-in-prison drama “We Girls”…or it could benefit Wuershan for “Creation of the Gods II”, a sword-and-sorcery fantasy epic, or famed HK action director Tsui Hark, now 75,  (he’s never been picked by either China or Hong Kong) for “Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants”, about the Mongol Invasions of China. These last two were also major hits at the box office. And if China goes the comedy-drama route (they picked “Nice View” a few years ago) it could be “Her Story”, about the challenges of single motherhood. And this summer, there are two patriotic anti-Japanese films coming out – “731” about Japanese medical experimentation camps during WWII, and “Dongji Rescue”, ironically about the Lisbon Maru incident during WWII.....which was also the subject of their disqualified documentary from last year. Of course, China has many arthouse films that could be better choices, especially Berlinale Best Director winner “Living the Land” but also “The Botanist” or “Girls on Wire”. I’m sure to get this one wrong….but honoring Tsui and picking “Legends of the Condor Heroes” looks and sounds like what China usually sends - a great-looking, box-office hit with middling reviews and a pre-cooked U.S. streaming release. I have “731”, “Ne Zha 2” and “Dongji Rescue” as the most likely alternates. Waiting in the wings: Chen Kaige's coming-of-age drama "Flowers from the Ashes" still hasn't been released. 

 FIJI- “Bati” Tiny Fiji doesn’t make many movies but they did enter the Oscar race once in 2005 with a film in the Rotuman language. This year, they could return! Boxing drama “Bati” is a wholly Fijian film that will premiere on August 21^st and – based on the trailer -  looks to be roughly 50% in Fijian and 50% in English. Good luck, Fiji!

 HONG KONG- “The Last Dance” Last year’s HK Oscar submission “Twilight of the Warriors” won Best Picture and Best Director at the Hong Kong Film Awards but three of the other four nominees are eligible this year – (1)- “The Last Dance” (Best Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor + two minor awards) is a drama about a wedding planner who becomes a funeral planner….and the highest-grossing HK film of all time, (2)- “Papa” (Best Actor, Supporting Actress), about a man with survivor guilt following a brutal murder, and (3)- “The Way We Talk”, about Hong Kong’s deaf community with shades of “CODA”. 2025 has been a much quieter year with the only other possible contenders “Montages of a Modern Motherhood”, which opened the Hong Kong Film Festival, “Luz” (Sundance), co-starring Isabelle Huppert, and “My First of May”, a family drama starring Aaron Kwok as the patriarch of a family that falls apart due to the crippling illness of their young daughter. I think “The Last Dance” has more buzz, though “Papa” and “My First of May” will be tough competition.

  INDIA- “Homebound” I do have a life and simply don't have time to research India's 1900 feature films in 20 different languages.....especially since the Film Federation of India (FFI) seems to just pick films at random anyway. The FFI admittedly has a really hard job....but even so, they're not very good at it. I'm predicting "Homebound", a Hindi-language buddy movie about two aspiring police officers that seems to have very good reviews. 

  INDONESIA- “Gowok: Javanese Kamasutra” For now, Indonesia has a four-way race between three previously submitted directors –Hanung Bramantyo (2014), Garin Nugroho (1998/2019) and Mouly Surya (2018), plus Yandy Laurens, whose last film was the big winner of the 2024 Indonesian Citra Awards. I’m predicting Bramantyo’s erotic historical drama “Gowok: Javanese Kamasutra” (Rotterdam), about an upper-class family in the 1960s who hire a sort of courtesan to educate their son about his upcoming marital responsibilities. The Indonesian Academy can be daring (check out the provocative “Memories of My Body” which caused stupid people to protest) and "Gowok" looks aesthetically beautiful. I have Laurens’ “A Brother and 7 Siblings”, a sort of Indonesian “Party of Five” about a young man who finds himself father to seven nieces and nephews after an untimely death, in second place. Laurens won Best Picture at the Indonesian Film Awards last year (for a different film) and they may feel he is owed. It hasn’t gotten any festival play but neither did “Missing Home” a few years ago. Close behind are historical drama “This City is a Battlefield” by Mouly Surya (she directed “Marlina the Murderer”) which is about a freedom fighter who struggles with ordinary life after Indonesia achieves independence, and Garin Nugroho’s “Samsara”, a stylish B+W supernatural drama set in 1930s Bali. Reviews for “This City” aren’t as good as Surya’s previous film, and I fear “Samsara” may be completely forgotten…..but they are very respected directors in Indonesia and definitely have a chance. Rounding out the Top 5: “Crocodile Tears” (Toronto/Tallinn), a drama about an overbearing mother that’s played at quite a few festivals.

  JAPAN- “Kokuho” As usual, Japan has a lot of options. Alphabetically, I see their Top 5 as - (1)- “Kokuho” (Cannes), a huge 3-hour kabuki-yakuza epic (co-starring Ken Watanabe) set during 50 years of post-war Japan....it arguably has the best reviews of the five, (2)- “A Pale View of the Hills” (Cannes), a historical drama about a Japanese widow told in two timelines (like Iceland’s “Touch”) in Japan and the UK, based on a Kazuo Ishiguro novel (3)- “Scarlet” (Venice), the most anticipated anime film of the year, set to premiere at Venice and an early favorite to contend for the Oscar for Best Animated Feature....it's about a princess with magical powers, (4)- “Sham” (Tribeca), a twisty courtroom drama based on a true-crime story about a teacher trying to drive a student to suicide...and the latest from Takeshi Miike, and (5)- “Teki Cometh” (Tokyo), a B+W Haneke-esque drama that won Best Picture at the Tokyo Film Festival and was the Japanese nominee at the Asian Film Awards (winning Best Director), about an old man who receives a mysterious message that danger is coming. 

In recent years, the Japanese Academy has adhered to an unofficial “share the wealth” policy and doesn’t choose directors multiple times. That's the biggest hurdle for frontrunner “Kokuho” whose director Lee Sang-il was selected way back in 2006. Is that long enough to wait? (This unofficial rule will also hurt Chie Hayakawa who some people are predicting for “Renoir”…but Hayakawa was picked just three years ago so I'm confident she has no chance). I keep going back and forth between “Kokuho”, “Sham” and “Pale View of the Hills”...and now "Scarlet" is gathering buzz for its Venice debut. “Kokuho”’s dazzling costumes and Japanese-ness look like they would represent Japan proudly so that's still my pick.  But last year, Japan picked an unheralded film by a respected director who had never been picked before (Kiyoshi Kurosawa)….”Sham” is one of Takeshi Miike’s most mainstream and serious efforts and would probably do well with Oscar voters. The incredibly prolific Miike is 64 years old and has made over 100 films and this would be a nice career honor.....“Pale View” has slightly weaker reviews than the other two but has the Cannes label (so does “Kokuho”) and an old-fashioned Masterpiece Theatre vibe. It’s likely to be one of these three….I’m predicting “Kokuho”….but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they chose one of the other two.

 KAZAKHSTAN- “Joqtau” In the past ten years, Kazakhstan has sent nine films by nine different directors. Three films were about Soviet Kazakh history and one was about Kazakhstan during the 15th century.  Three more were serious social dramas while two were “magical realist” films from international festivals. Notably, they have ignored a lot of acclaimed films and made some rather odd decisions, particularly the critically lambasted “Life” (which I admittedly never saw) in 2022. The Kazakh Academy likes to highlight films that showcase Kazakh culture (“Bauryna Salu”, “Golden Throne”) but also Russian aggression against Kazakhstan (“Amanat”, “Ayka”, “Crying Steppe”), while avoiding films that generate any controversies. That’s unfortunate because the best-reviewed Kazakh film of the year is “Abel” (Busan), about how rampant corruption affects the lives of a hard-working rural couple. Lesbian-themed “Bikechess”, about another controversial topic, won the 2024 Tribeca Film Festival. Neither will be selected. Kazakhstan’s most prolific director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- a horror flick (“Cadet”) and an action movie (“Moor”) but they usually ignore him (including one year when they decided to send nothing instead of "Ademoka's Education"). So, what will they pick? Dreamy drama “Joqtau” (Locarno '24) looks awfully artistic and abstract, but it has played a lot regionally. Other options: Akan Satayev has been picked three times and his new horror film “Anel” could be selected, as could children’s animation “Golden Man” which may check the box for honoring Kazakh history....or “Longer Than a Day” (Shanghai), a drama about a rural couple who encounter a Frenchman on the Kazakh steppes.

 KOREA- “No Other Choice” As of today, Korea has had a mostly weak film year....which will make it easier than ever for Park Chan-wook's "No Other Choice" to win this. Before Korea announced their list of 19 eligible films last month, I expected "What Does That Nature Say to You?" (Berlin), "Square" (Annecy), "Hear Me" (Busan), and "Love in the Big City" (Toronto) might join Park on the list.....but of those four only "Big City", about a young woman and her gay best friend, actually registered. No one has seen "No Other Choice" but Korea is almost certain to send Park Chan-wook’s dark revenge comedy that will premiere at Venice later this month. Park Chan-wook is well-known in Seoul and in Hollywood but has only been submitted to the Oscars once. Even in a stronger year, he’d be the frontrunner….This year, he’s a lock. What happens if the films bombs? It won't....but the runner-ups are likely anti-Japanese historical drama "Harbin" and mystery-thriller "The Ugly". 

Locked:            No Other Choice

Dark Horses:     Harbin, The Ugly

High-Ranked:    Love in the Big City, A Normal Family, Somebody, When This Summer is Over, Yadang: The Snitch

Middle Ranked:  About Family, High Five, Mimang, My Daughter is a Zombie, Secret: Untold Melody, Spring Night

Low Ranked:    Dark Nuns, Exorcism Chronicles, The Killers, The Old Woman & the Knife, Omniescient Reader

  KYRGYZSTAN- “Black Red Yellow” Kyrgyzstan should have an easy decision this year since “Black Red Yellow” became the first-ever Kyrgyz film to win a Class-A film festival in Shanghai this year. Add to that the fact that director Aktan Arym Kubat has been selected for all five feature films that he made in Kyrgyzstan since the country began entering the Oscar competition in 1998…and his films keep getting better and better. So, this should be a no brainer. “Black Red Yellow” is a village drama that also showcases the country’s outstanding carpetmaking traditions. In any other year, human trafficking drama “Deal at the Border” would have had a good chance.

  LAOS- “Satu- Year of the Rabbit” Laos has just sent one film, a really fun horror movie called "Dearest  Sister", to the Oscars (in 2017). They probably won’t send anything this year but UK co-production “Satu- Year of the Rabbit”, a road movie about a child laborer searching for his long-lost mother, looks great and has played at a number of festivals.  But the fact that it has a British writer-director and mostly foreign crew (it has Lao producers and a Lao cast) means maybe it isn't eligible? 

  MALAYSIA- “Blood Brothers: Dragon’s Embers” Malaysia is hard to predict because they have absolutely no genre prejudices. Most countries just look at straight dramas but Malaysia has happily sent comedies, horror films, documentaries and family films….This year, I expect they'll be choosing between mafia crime drama "Blood Brothers" and time-travel fantasy "Reversi", in part because they both have Netflix release deals like last year's submission. "Blood Brothers" seems slightly more likely to me. They could also choose “Magik Rompak”, a new heist movie....horror-drama “Kulit Wayang” whose director Dain Said directed the first-ever Malaysian submission or “Finding Ramlee” (Rotterdam), a dramedy about a struggling actor. Dark horse: One of their best reviewed films of the year is a kiddie anime film- “Ejen Ali 2”.

 MONGOLIA- “Silent City Driver” Last year, “If Only I Could Hibernate” (Cannes 2023) was one of the best films submitted from Asia and it was very warmly received by critics. And yet the Mongolian Academy announced that they were not submitting any film at all reportedly because “Hibernate” did not show the country in a positive light. They had to be shamed by a social media campaign led by the director into sending it to the Oscars. Like Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia is a very small filmmaking country that managed to win a Class-A festival this year, in this case with Buddhist thriller “Silent City Driver”, which won Tallinn Black Nights. But Tallinn Black Nights is known as a very "genre" festival so “Silent City Driver”, about an ex-con hearse driver seeking revenge, could lose out to “Mongol”, which looks like the kind of cultural film that Mongolia usually sends to the Oscars. Set circa 1900, "Mongol" is an epic costume drama about a peasant, his feudal lord, and the lord’s daughter with whom he has fallen in love. The writer, director and lead actor is Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam who was chosen to rep Mongolia in 2023. This will be a very, very tight two-way race. I predict “Silent City” but local politics could mean “Mongol” (which also looks very good) gets this.  

  NEPAL- “The World's Happiest Man” Nepal has two strong options, namely Deepak Rauniyar’s “Pooja, Sir”, which premiered at Venice Horizons 2024, and Binod Paudel’s “The World’s Happiest Man”, set in the U.S. state of Ohio and co-starring two-time Oscar nominee Bruce Dern, who is now 89 years old. Both directors have been picked once before but Rauniyar is more famous internationally. But Nepal sometimes just chooses a locally made film that nobody has ever heard of. The gorgeous “Halkara” starts off slow but was one of the most pleasant surprises on the Oscar longlist two years ago. “A Journey of Purna Bahadur”, about the life of an impoverished musician trying to achieve a better future (and co-produced by Paudel), is reportedly the highest-grossing film in Nepalese history and that could help it outrun the two frontrunners. “Woolen Sweater” and “Mohar” round out the top five options for Nepal. I think the U.S. connection will help "Happiest Man" win this. 

 NEW ZEALAND- “Kōkā” The Kiwis had an excellent candidate last year (“In the Fire of War”, aka Ka Whawhai Tonu) that was probably their best chance ever to make the shortlist. It was certainly eligible but, for some reason, they didn’t send it. It seems that the New Zealand Film Commission has lost interest in this category. Between 2011-2018, they sent six films. Since then, just one. If they return this year, I predict it will be “Kōkā”, a spiritual road movie about a (mentally ill?) Maori elder and a troubled young girl. Based on the trailer, it looks like it’s 50-50 in the English and Maori languages.We'll see! 

 PAKISTAN- “Ghost School” Of all the regular participants at the International Oscar party, I probably had the hardest time finding a film that could suitably represent Pakistan. Although Pakistan has deserved two Oscar nominations in the past five years (“Circus of Life” and “Joyland”), this has been a lean year. There have been a few well-received movies with lots of local music and romance…but they don’t look like Oscar contenders. Pakistan did send a horror-drama (“In Flames”) in 2023 so I was going to predict they send another- “Deemak”- a slow born thriller about a family who aren’t sure whether the strange events in their home are supernatural. Reviews are so-so but I though it may be their best shot. But then another supernatural dramas - "Ghost School" - was announced for Toronto. It's about a young girl trying to uncover the mystery of why her local school has been shuttered. I'm not certain it can get into Pakistani cinemas by September 30....but it looks like a stronger entry than "Deemak". 

 PAPUA NEW GUINEA- “Plesman 2” Papua New Guinea is one of two countries (along with Madagascar) that has publicly announced that they plan to send a film for the first time in 2025….and I’m pretty shocked. PNG doesn't produce a lot of films, both because of a lack of filmmaking expertise, as well as crime and violence…but there has apparently been a lot of talk recently about jump-starting the industry. There was a lot of fanfare in 2024 about “Black Python”, billed as the country’s first-ever action film. If they really do enter, I think they’ll send “Plesman 2: Rising from the Ashes”, a film being readied for release in time for the country’s 50^th anniversary of independence in August 2025. It’s a social issues drama (and sequel) about a man confronting tribal conflict, sorcery and lack of education in his rural community. Papua New Guinea is one of only four “big” countries (over 2 million people) in the Asia-Pacific region never to send a film to the Oscars, alongside the hermetical trio of Burma, North Korea and Turkmenistan.

 PHILIPPINES- “Magellan” The Philippines gets a lot of their Oscar submissions from the Cinemalaya independent film festival (5 of their past 12 submissions)  but this year's Cinemalaya has been postponed from August to October, meaning that there is a slightly smaller pool of films. From the past twelve years, five came from major festivals (Cannes, Venice, Sundance), one came from their popular (and more commercial) Metro Manila Film Festival, and one (General Luna) was a regular commercial blockbuster. Before the shortlist came out, I highlighted four films as possibilities - "Gunay Lang, Manong!" and "Sunshine" (both from Cinemalaya 2024), "Green Bones" (Metro Manila) and "Magellan" (Cannes). The Filipino shortlist included "Green Bones", "Magellan" and "Sunshine", plus four dark horses - documentary "Food Delivery", box-office smash sequel "Hello Love Again", LGBT drama "Some Nights I Feel Like Walking" and choir drama "Song of the Fireflies". I don't really expect any of these four to be selected. And although "Green Bones", a crime-thriller about a murderer about to be released from prison, has a Netflix deal, it probably won't have much luck either.

That leaves us with the two favorites- Lav Diaz's big-budget international historical drama "Magellan" and plucky indie "Sunshine", about a pregnant teen gymnast. "Magellan" has international backing, a Cannes label, exemplary production values, and stars Gael Garcia Bernal...all things that will help the Philippines in its quest to make the shortlist for the first time. The Philippines has been sending films since the first call for submissions way back in 1956, when five out of eight submissions got Oscar nominations!) That year, only Philippines, Spain and Sweden failed to get to Hollywood....But by 1960, both Spain and Sweden made the finals courtesy of Juan Antonio Bardem and Ingmar Bergman. Only the Philippines has been waiting so long. That makes "Magellan", which could launch an effective Oscar campaign, the favorite and my prediction. Lav Diaz - whose films usually run four hours or more- has employed a better editor this time. "Magellan" is just 2 hours and 45 minutes (still too long for me). 

But "Sunshine" is more "authentically Filipino" and, on paper, probably has better reviews than "Magellan". This story about teen pregnancy and abortion (still strictly illegal in the Philippines) will probably also resonate more with American audiences than the story of a Portuguese missionary and explorer. Unfortunately, because of the AMPAS voting system, "Magellan" probably has the advantage when it comes to making the shortlist. 

Ultimately, I don't think either film will be nominated so perhaps the Filipinos should vote with their heart instead of worrying about a nomination.....

For a much more in-depth look at the Filipino race, check out Nicol's blog entry here. 

  SINGAPORE- “Stranger Eyes” Four of Singapore’s previous submitted directors – Raihan Halim (2024), Eric Khoo (2005, 2008, 2011, 2015), Mike Wiluan (2018), and Yeo Siew Hua (2019)- have new movies that appear to be eligible. On paper, “Spirit World” should be the frontrunner. It was the Closing Film at Busan, it stars Catherine Deneuve (as a ghost!) and is directed by Eric Khoo who has been picked to represent Singapore a record four times. But reviews of the film, in Japanese and French, have not been especially kind. People don't seem to like it. So, I think Singapore will pick “Stranger Eyes” (Yeo’s film), a weird thriller that premiered in the Main Competition at Venice, opened the Singapore Film Festival and got some love at the Asian Film Awards and the Golden Horse Film Festival. Reviews for the film - which sounds like a Singaporean version of Haneke’s “Cache - have been okay. In 2^nd place, “Pierce” (Karlovy Vary), a murder thriller centered around competitive fencing. Horror film “Monster Island” (Wiluan’s film) looks good and already has a US distribution deal but it also seems to have too much English, and “Ibu” (Halim’s film), a middling horror flick, won’t come into play. Toronto premiere "Amoeba" looks controversial...and probably won't premiere in time. 

 SRI LANKA- “River Stone” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009…Excluding Kuwait, it’s the only Asian country that’s been absent for more than a decade. If for some reason they choose to return, it will surely be “Riverstone” which won two awards at the Shanghai Film Festival, including Best Screenplay. It’s a baity moral dilemma drama about three army officers who are sent on a mission to assassinate a man they know nothing about. I hope to welcome them back!

 TAIWAN- “Yen & Ai-Lee” Taiwan has quite a few good options although none of them are likely to be mount strong competition at the Oscars. Taiwan often makes strange choices, preferring to pick a movie that has the backing of a US distributor like Amazon or Netflix. I don’t know of any Taiwanese films that have U.S. distribution this year….so I’m predicting unassuming domestic violence drama “Yen & Ai-Lee” (Busan), about a woman who is released from prison after an 8-year sentence for killing her father who tried to kill her mother. The two runner-ups will be “Left-Handed Girl” (Cannes), a family drama about a single mother (it hasn’t been released in cinemas yet), and “Daughter’s Daughter” (Toronto 2024), a star vehicle for Sylvia Chang about a bereaved mother who inherits her daughter’s frozen embryos. Less likely but possible: Singapore co-production and fencing drama “Pierce” and family drama “Family Matters”. This is one where I really have no idea. Waiting in the wings is Shu Qi's directorial debut "Girl" which has been selected to compete for the Golden Lion in Venice and also screen in Toronto. This coming-of-age drama looks very strong...but I'm not confident they can get it into Taiwanese cinemas by September 30 (it premieres in Venice on September 4) so I'm sticking with "Yen & Ai-Lee". 

  TAJIKISTAN- “Fish on the Hook” I’m aware of three Tajik films that have won awards locally- “In Pursuit of Truth” (Dar taloshi hakikat), a mystery about a bride who dies on her wedding night...but villagers cannot determine whether she was murdered or committed suicide, “Fish on the Hook” (Mohi dar shast), a road movie about a boy trying to reunite with his estranged mother, and “Shine” (Furugh), about a 7-year old deaf girl. Tajikistan returned to the Oscars after a 19-year absence in 2024 and I’m hopeful they’ll send one of these films. Last year's entry was an Iranian co-production. So “Fish”, which has both Iranian and Russian partners, looks to be the one.

  THAILAND- “A Useful Ghost” Thailand made it to the shortlist for the first time last year for “How to Make Millions When Grandma Dies”. I thought it was a lovely movie though I was surprised at how far it went...I've seen better Thai submissions. Before Thailand's preliminary Oscar announcement, I thought that Thailand had three possibilities- “Flat Girls”, a queer coming-of-age tale, “A Useful Ghost”, a bizarre fantasy-comedy that won Cannes Critics Week for its story of a possessed vacuum cleaner (!!) and “Morte Cucina”, an upcoming thriller that reunites Japanese superstar Tadanobu Asano, cinematographer Christopher Doyle and director Pen-ek Ratanaruang (“Last Life in the Universe”). "Morte Cucina" won't be released in time which was confirmed when the Thai Academy showed the ten movie posters of the films they are considering.  There are three horror movies ("Death Whisperer 2", "Halabala" and "Panor"), three comedies ("Nancy Boy", "Red Envelope", "A Useful Ghost"), two dramas ("Flat Girls", "Regretfully at Dawn") and two crime/thrillers ("In Youth We Trust", "The Stone"). I love to see so many horror films on the shortlist but I still think it's between "Flat Girls" and "Useful Ghost". In the end, I think that the Thai Academy will likely be impressed by “Useful Ghost”’s surprise Cannes win, U.S. distribution deal and berth at Toronto….but they’ll also realize that they finally made it to the shortlist (after 40 years!) with a sentimental melodrama from the same studio as “Flat Girls”....but unlike slow-burn box-office "Millions", "Flat Girls" was kind of a flop. For now, let’s say “A Useful Ghost”.

 TURKMENISTAN- "Magtymguly Pyragy" Turkmenistan's dictator basically banned local cinema from roughly 1998-2006, which led to the departure of many of the country's Soviet-era talent. They are currently the only former Soviet republic that has never submitted a film to the Oscars. While unlikely, it's possible could seek to enter the Oscar race with "Magtymguly Pyragy", a fancy period biopic that they co-produced with Uzbekistan, about a renowned 17th century Turkmen poet 

  UZBEKISTAN- “In Pursuit of Spring” The film I predicted last year for Uzbekistan- “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” ended up winning Best Picture at the local Uzbek Film Awards so that was a good guess…but Uzbekistan ultimately didn’t submit anything to the Oscars. In fact, the Uzbeks have only sent two films to the Oscars (2019-2021) and they’re unlikely to return this year. They could send “In Pursuit of Spring”, about a conservative woman on a long journey to a remote village or “Magtymguly Pyragy” (see Turkmenistan), a big-budget costume drama made in partnership with neighboring Turkmenistan but by an Uzbek director. Both of these films have represented Uzbekistan at regional film festivals, in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. They also have “Three Heroes”, an action movie that was the biggest local box-office hit of 2024 and which won two small national film awards.

  VIETNAM- “Don’t Cry Butterfly” Vietnam joined the “ten-year club” last year, submitting films ten years in a row. Vietnam sometimes picks films from major festivals but more often, they choose commercial films or patriotic films made by the national film studio. From the festival circuit, they have “Cu Li Never Cries” (Berlinale Panorama), a slow arty film about a woman and her pet loris (?!) and “Don’t Cry Butterfly” (Venice Critics Week), a comic fantasy about a woman who uses black magic to woo back her cheating husband. If they go the “patriotic” film route (like last year), then it will probably be “Tunnels: Sun in the Dark”, a Vietnam War film made to celebrate 50 years since the 1975 victory of the Vietnamese Communists against South Vietnam and the USA. If they go the commercial route, it could be box-office smash comedy “The Four Rascals” or period horror-mystery film “The Headless Horror”. Vietnam has never picked a horror film before but Vietnam has been loosening its unofficial ban on films with “superstitious elements” and produced quite a few horror movies recently. They also have a new romantic drama "Ky Nam Inn" premiering in Toronto. Of these six possibilities, I think “Don’t Cry Butterfly” has a good mix of arty and commercial elements and will be the Vietnamese nominee, followed by “Tunnels” in second place, "Ky Nam Inn" in third (it probably will be eligible next year) and “Four Rascals” (not a critics favorite, by the way) in fourth.